Clears Cleaver said:I think the key game is the @Indy game. Win that and sets the tone. I think the Saints and Ravens games will be winnable.
Assuming they get a left tackle. And a starting CB. And a pass rusher.
The Fins gave that game away last year -- would have loved to see the Tanny-Luck rematch played in Miami, but oh well.
In other news, PFF breaks down the potential Albert trade:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/04/19/neils-nfl-daily-april-19-2013/
Despite my protestations to the contrary I’ve seen many people quote our stats to the effect “Albert is PFF’s 25th-ranked tackle in 2012 or 17th-ranked left tackle”. This paints him as a mid-tier player and as such not a huge upgrade on Martin. I think that’s taking our work out of context and not fair on Albert who I personally feel is a much better player than that.
If you, like I, assume pass blocking is the most important part of a tackle’s job and rate players in that order he becomes the 11th-rated tackle and ninth-placed left tackle. Further, when you dig into our advanced normalization data (we don’t have this on the site but it takes account of teams whose quarterback gets rid of the ball quickly, giving them an unfair advantage) he becomes the sixth tackle with only Joe Thomas, Russell Okung, Michael Roos, Andrew Whitworth and Ryan Clady ahead of him.
On that basis Albert should be looking for a contract similar to the one Will Beatty signed before free agency at $7.5M per year. He’s a better player than Jermon Bushrod who got $7M from the Bears and although he has better history than Beatty doesn’t have Giants upside or ability as a run blocker so something equivalent is equitable. I’m sure the Dolphins would prefer to only give up a three in exchange but a two is probably a fairer reflection of his worth.
So for Miami, if they can get Albert for the above, still have a No. 1 pick to bolster their defense and shore up the biggest weakness on the team, the deal would be a good one but what about Kansas City?
This is where I struggle with the whole thing frankly. The Chiefs are a very talented team who but for a perfect storm of issues shouldn’t have been close to the first pick in the draft. They now have that golden opportunity and seem to be on the verge of using it to make a lateral move.
Even if Joeckel becomes the best left tackle in the league, the difference between him and Branden Albert is probably five to 10 additional QB disruptions a year on 500 passing attempts – so a best case scenario gives you a 1-2% improvement – is that really great value?
With the rookie wage cap expect the first pick to save Kansas City maybe $2M a year on Albert, pick up at very best a marginally better player and net them a second round pick (which as we know from Khaled’s recent Draft Grader series, is still a lottery).