Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Is it generally agreed on this board that for whatever reason there is a mental hurdle for a not insignificant amount of pitchers when asked to transition from the 8th inning role to the 9th inning role?
I think it’s agreed upon across all MLB with some head scratching and disbelief but a general acceptance.

not just in baseball but in other sports and even other endeavors- wrapping something up, finishing, ending something…. Is stressful. There’s pressure there to get it right like at no other point. Perhaps it shouldn’t be like that but hitting those two free throws with :01 seconds remaining to win or to wrap up that novel in tbe final chapter is difficult.
 

chrisfont9

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Are these facts? Managers treat getting out of a jam in the 3rd inning - getting the third out - the same as the 8th? 9th inning up 3 no one on is more pressure than 7th inning up 1 bases loaded? And guys like knowing their roles is a fact? What if their role is super utility guy or high leverage reliever?
You misunderstood me. All outs are the same, there are 27 of them etc etc. But how teams treat situations is not -- seems painfully obvious. As for guys liking knowing their roles, they say it all the time, so I take them at their word.
 

chawson

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I’d like to see a smallish deal with the Marlins for Jesús Aguilar and one of Anthony Bass or Anthony Bender, two underappreciated relievers who are lights out against RHBs.

Whoever they bring in for that 1B/RF role would have to be demonstrably better than both Refsnyder and Bob. If they trade Bob, which looks likely, then the return would be larger, or at least different, than another RHB first baseman. As it stands, next year’s RF could very well be a Cordero/Refsnyder platoon.

I still like Aguilar, who’s got a slightly pricey mutual option ($7.75M) that may come in handy for us to pick up next year if we want more insurance easing Casas in, and would probably be more than he’d get on the market. He’s also reportedly a great clubhouse guy.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah that seems like a reasonable duo to target. Does some combo of Dalbec, Groome, and Downs get it done? Hard to know, but that’s two top 15 prospects on the team and a guy whose cheap for a few years.
 

grimshaw

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I’d like to see a smallish deal with the Marlins for Jesús Aguilar and one of Anthony Bass or Anthony Bender, two underappreciated relievers who are lights out against RHBs.

Whoever they bring in for that 1B/RF role would have to be demonstrably better than both Refsnyder and Bob. If they trade Bob, which looks likely, then the return would be larger, or at least different, than another RHB first baseman. As it stands, next year’s RF could very well be a Cordero/Refsnyder platoon.

I still like Aguilar, who’s got a slightly pricey mutual option ($7.75M) that may come in handy for us to pick up next year if we want more insurance easing Casas in, and would probably be more than he’d get on the market. He’s also reportedly a great clubhouse guy.
I don't think a minor upgrade at 1b is where I'd give up resources given there is still a chance Cordero, Dalbec and/or Casas could beat Aguilar's very modest production in the 2nd half. If the price for Bell was in the ballpark for what they gave up for Schwarber that's something I'd do as a very clear upgrade and then worry about next year, next year.

I'm sure we'll come up with 10 names that would be nice to have in the pen, and then Bloom will get someone we've barely heard of and he does just as well.
 

chawson

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I'm sure we'll come up with 10 names that would be nice to have in the pen, and then Bloom will get someone we've barely heard of and he does just as well.
Agree with this totally.

As for the 1B upgrade, that makes sense too. I think it all depends on whether Bob’s traded now or later. I have to think some GM likes him more than a short end of a 1B platoon. Bell would be a great get, but adding someone like Aguilar to that mix allows us to plug Cordero into RF, which could be helpful in case we move on from JBJ.

Yeah that seems like a reasonable duo to target. Does some combo of Dalbec, Groome, and Downs get it done? Hard to know, but that’s two top 15 prospects on the team and a guy whose cheap for a few years.
Could be a bit much for that particular trade but I think you’re right it’s a decent bet Groome goes somewhere as like the third piece of a deal. Another option still lingering would be sending some combination of Duran, Dalbec and Houck to the A’s, with one of Laureano, Murphy and Montas coming back.

I’d be happy with something like this:

A’s get: Houck, Duran, Groome
Sox get: Laureano, Trivino, Puk
 

InsideTheParker

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I’d like to see a smallish deal with the Marlins for Jesús Aguilar and one of Anthony Bass or Anthony Bender, two underappreciated relievers who are lights out against RHBs.

Whoever they bring in for that 1B/RF role would have to be demonstrably better than both Refsnyder and Bob. If they trade Bob, which looks likely, then the return would be larger, or at least different, than another RHB first baseman. As it stands, next year’s RF could very well be a Cordero/Refsnyder platoon.

I still like Aguilar, who’s got a slightly pricey mutual option ($7.75M) that may come in handy for us to pick up next year if we want more insurance easing Casas in, and would probably be more than he’d get on the market. He’s also reportedly a great clubhouse guy.
He's hilarious. Not just because he's funny, he's one of the guys I was hoping they'd get for first base during last off-season.
 

mikcou

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I'd do #3, although probably not smart either: Bell for Bonaci & Crawford
I'd drive those two to the airport and pay their airfare for that deal. Neither of them move the needle at all. Crawford might eventually be a bulk innings reliever. Bonaci has zero power - theres almost no way hes a major league player.

The rest of the article reads like Jim Bowden is working off scouting reports from last year. Bello isnt a throw-in, if hes traded, its as a centerpiece for a star.
 

A Bad Man

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I'd drive those two to the airport and pay their airfare for that deal. Neither of them move the needle at all. Crawford might eventually be a bulk innings reliever. Bonaci has zero power - theres almost no way hes a major league player.

The rest of the article reads like Jim Bowden is working off scouting reports from last year. Bello isnt a throw-in, if hes traded, its as a centerpiece for a star.
It's so bad. Mentioning Koss and Rafaela in the same breath.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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If the Sox are looking to deal minor leaguers (I do think he's right that the 40-man crunch might be real), here's how I'd categorize them...

Virtually untouchable unless they're getting an absolute star back: Bello, Mayer
Centerpiece in a deal for a really, really, really good player that the Sox would have locked up for years: Duran, Casas, Yorke, Walter, Winckowski, Seabold, Groome (still just 23 years old if you can believe it; feels like he's been in the system for a decade already), Rafaela, Dalbec
Guys I'd move for some needed help this year: Mata, Downs, Jordan, Crawford

There are others of course.
 

Daniel_Son

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#1 is absolutely insane - trading 3 of our top-10 prospects for two years of a 29-year-old pitcher is crazy as it is, but Bowden thinks that's not enough, they need our no. 2 prospect instead of no. 3.
 

Ganthem

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If the Sox are looking to deal minor leaguers (I do think he's right that the 40-man crunch might be real), here's how I'd categorize them...

Virtually untouchable unless they're getting an absolute star back: Bello, Mayer
Centerpiece in a deal for a really, really, really good player that the Sox would have locked up for years: Duran, Casas, Yorke, Walter, Winckowski, Seabold, Groome (still just 23 years old if you can believe it; feels like he's been in the system for a decade already), Rafaela, Dalbec
Guys I'd move for some needed help this year: Mata, Downs, Jordan, Crawford

There are others of course.
I am not sure Dalbec is going to be a centerpiece of any deal. He spent most of last year being terrible and this year is more of the same. He has a WAR of negative 0.2 and a WRC+ of 72. It seems more then likely if Dalbec is traded it will be as a throw in or moved in a trade for a lottery ticket. That being said, given how Bloom has done with lottery tickets that might not be a bad thing.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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#1 is absolutely insane - trading 3 of our top-10 prospects for two years of a 29-year-old pitcher is crazy as it is, but Bowden thinks that's not enough, they need our no. 2 prospect instead of no. 3.
I agree with Bowden on this. Murphy is 24 and still in AA with average stuff, future LOOGY. Jeter Downs is under the Mendoza line and over 30% K for the second consecutive year in AAA. He's barely still a prospect. Yorke is a prospect, but he is (a) in single A, (b) not currently hitting, and (c) not a good defensive player. If we could get a season and a half of Luis Castillo for that pile of semi prospects I would do it in a second. It's the Reds who would say no.
 
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Daniel_Son

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I agree with Bowden on this. Murphy is 24 and still in AA with average stuff, future LOOGY. Jeter Downs is under the Mendoza line and over 30% K for the second consecutive year in AAA. He's barely still a prospect. Yorke is a prospect, but he is (a) in single A, (b) not currently hitting, and (c) not a good defensive player. If we could get a season and a half of Luis Castillo for that pile of semi prospects I would do it in a second. It's the Reds who would say no.
Downs went from A+ in 2019 to AAA in 2021 after missing an entire year of development. He posted good numbers in the AFL, he raised his OPS by nearly 100 points thus far this year, he's striking out less and walking more, and he's only 23 years old - all of which to say he's still very much a prospect, and I think he's got more rope before Bloom decides to move him.

And that's not even getting into the target - Castillo is a fine pitcher, but he's coming off of a pretty mediocre year in 2021 and hasn't been exactly lights-out this year either. He's also 29 years old and is an FA in 2024. Plus, every single team is going to be bidding for his services in August. The Reds are going to get an absolute haul, deserving or not, and I don't want Bloom to get into a pissing match with New York over him.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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It’s really hard for me to assess our trade needs right now. We have uncertainty at first and some questions in the OF. We’ve had bullpen holes, but this is a team that’s won 7 straight and dominated in June, and has Whitlock, Eovaldi, Sale, Paxton, and Taylor coming back from injury over the next month or so (knocking on wood). It’s quite possible we make a Steve Pearce move (I like the Mancini idea) and that’s it. And if we make a bigger move, I’d like it to be more quantity over quality to address our upcoming 40 man crunch.
 
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ZMart100

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Downs went from A+ in 2019 to AAA in 2021 after missing an entire year of development. He posted good numbers in the AFL, he raised his OPS by nearly 100 points thus far this year, he's striking out less and walking more, and he's only 23 years old - all of which to say he's still very much a prospect, and I think he's got more rope before Bloom decides to move him.

And that's not even getting into the target - Castillo is a fine pitcher, but he's coming off of a pretty mediocre year in 2021 and hasn't been exactly lights-out this year either. He's also 29 years old and is an FA in 2024. Plus, every single team is going to be bidding for his services in August. The Reds are going to get an absolute haul, deserving or not, and I don't want Bloom to get into a pissing match with New York over him.
Downs was ok in AFL against what was supposed to be low quality pitching. 23 isn't really that young for a prospect. His hit tool was supposed to be his best skill. It's not like he just needs to hit enough for excellent defense or premium power to play at MLB. When acquired the excitement was that he was a close to the majors prospect with high floor and low ceiling. He was supposed to be a good regular soon. His floor has dropped out and his bat seems farther away than the day the Red Sox got him. He's still a prospect in the technical sense. He could turn it around, but he's not going to be a centerpiece or even an important piece for any MLB player anytime soon. At best he would be a throw in.
 

BaseballJones

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Let's say the Sox keep playing well and don't suffer any major injuries. And by "well", I don't mean they keep playing .700+ ball. I just mean, you know, 90+ win pace from this point on, over the next month. If they do that, they'll be right in the thick of the playoff picture.

Eovaldi, Sale, and Paxton, all return to bolster the starting rotation. Whitlock and Taylor come back to boost the bullpen. Who in the world are they going to put where? Yes, I get that these things tend to sort themselves out. But just as an exercise, how would it look?

Rotation: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Paxton, Wacha
Bullpen: Taylor, Houck, Whitlock, Strahm, Diekman, Schreiber, Davis, and...?? Has to be another RHP. This list already has four lefties. Hill probably would be out, unless he'd be a better fit than Diekman or Davis. For a RHP, their options internally would be Robles, Brasier, Winckowski, Barnes, Danish, and Sawamura.

Robles: 4.91 era, 1.32 whip, 7.0 k/9
Brasier: 4.28 era, 1.13 whip, 8.6 k/9
Winckowski: 3.60 era, 1.45 whip, 5.9 k/9
Barnes: 7.94 era, 1.71 whip, 7.4 k/9 (man, what the heck happened to Matt Barnes? goodness)
Danish: 3.86 era, 0.97 whip, 7.4 k/9
Sawamura: 2.96 era, 1.11 whip, 6.7 k/9

Honestly, a rather uninspiring group. I love Houck, Whitlock, and Schreiber from the right side - that's three excellent arms. They'd need that fourth guy. Maybe in the rotation they go with Hill and move Wacha to the pen? Hmmmmm. Possible.

But I think it highlights the need for one more really good RHP. Sawamura is fine as a guy to eat up regular season innings, but I know that none of us is comfortable in a big spot in the playoffs or down the stretch with him out there. Brasier? Meh. Barnes? Nope. Danish? Ehhhhh....they should be able to do a LOT better than that. Robles? Has the stuff but I don't have confidence in him. Winckowski? Maybe his stuff plays up in the pen, but I don't know.

So I'd love to see them swing a deal, even a small one for a rental, for a quality RHP out of the bullpen. Doesn't have to be a stud, because this group of 8 relievers should be really good as a group, and having both Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen really strengthens it considerably. But I do think they need one more quality RHP.

I'm sure some of it, though, will come down to 40-man roster stuff and what options players have because I doubt Chaim just wants to lose guys for nothing if he can help it.
 

chawson

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If the Sox are looking to deal minor leaguers (I do think he's right that the 40-man crunch might be real), here's how I'd categorize them...

Virtually untouchable unless they're getting an absolute star back: Bello, Mayer
Centerpiece in a deal for a really, really, really good player that the Sox would have locked up for years: Duran, Casas, Yorke, Walter, Winckowski, Seabold, Groome (still just 23 years old if you can believe it; feels like he's been in the system for a decade already), Rafaela, Dalbec
Guys I'd move for some needed help this year: Mata, Downs, Jordan, Crawford

There are others of course.
That middle tier of yours is a little chunky. Groome seems closer to a DFA candidate. The Sox Prospects guys report that he's lost a great deal of his stuff and often has to work backwards from a decent curveball. He may top out as a Brian Johnson at this point.
 

ArttyG12

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That middle tier of yours is a little chunky. Groome seems closer to a DFA candidate. The Sox Prospects guys report that he's lost a great deal of his stuff and often has to work backwards from a decent curveball. He may top out as a Brian Johnson at this point.
Law just had a note on him in his latest scouting article, too. Ends with this:
"His biggest problem is his fastball, which was 88-93 and clearly does not have great spin or other secondary characteristics. Hitters see the pitch too well, and he can’t use it to set up either of the off-speed pitches as a result. When he was an amateur, there was reason to think he’d pick up velocity as he filled out, but he’s going to turn 24 next month, and this might be all there is."
https://theathletic.com/3385194/2022/06/27/kyle-harrison-jay-groome-scouting-report/
 

joe dokes

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Let's say the Sox keep playing well and don't suffer any major injuries. And by "well", I don't mean they keep playing .700+ ball. I just mean, you know, 90+ win pace from this point on, over the next month. If they do that, they'll be right in the thick of the playoff picture.

Eovaldi, Sale, and Paxton, all return to bolster the starting rotation. Whitlock and Taylor come back to boost the bullpen. Who in the world are they going to put where? Yes, I get that these things tend to sort themselves out. But just as an exercise, how would it look?

Rotation: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Paxton, Wacha
Bullpen: Taylor, Houck, Whitlock, Strahm, Diekman, Schreiber, Davis, and...?? Has to be another RHP. This list already has four lefties. Hill probably would be out, unless he'd be a better fit than Diekman or Davis. For a RHP, their options internally would be Robles, Brasier, Winckowski, Barnes, Danish, and Sawamura.

Robles: 4.91 era, 1.32 whip, 7.0 k/9
Brasier: 4.28 era, 1.13 whip, 8.6 k/9
Winckowski: 3.60 era, 1.45 whip, 5.9 k/9
Barnes: 7.94 era, 1.71 whip, 7.4 k/9 (man, what the heck happened to Matt Barnes? goodness)
Danish: 3.86 era, 0.97 whip, 7.4 k/9
Sawamura: 2.96 era, 1.11 whip, 6.7 k/9

Honestly, a rather uninspiring group. I love Houck, Whitlock, and Schreiber from the right side - that's three excellent arms. They'd need that fourth guy. Maybe in the rotation they go with Hill and move Wacha to the pen? Hmmmmm. Possible.

But I think it highlights the need for one more really good RHP. Sawamura is fine as a guy to eat up regular season innings, but I know that none of us is comfortable in a big spot in the playoffs or down the stretch with him out there. Brasier? Meh. Barnes? Nope. Danish? Ehhhhh....they should be able to do a LOT better than that. Robles? Has the stuff but I don't have confidence in him. Winckowski? Maybe his stuff plays up in the pen, but I don't know.

So I'd love to see them swing a deal, even a small one for a rental, for a quality RHP out of the bullpen. Doesn't have to be a stud, because this group of 8 relievers should be really good as a group, and having both Houck and Whitlock in the bullpen really strengthens it considerably. But I do think they need one more quality RHP.

I'm sure some of it, though, will come down to 40-man roster stuff and what options players have because I doubt Chaim just wants to lose guys for nothing if he can help it.
I'm not allowed to change the hypothetical, professor, but I think you're a bit out front on Paxton. But considering we're talking back end of the pen, I dont see that group as uninspiring at all. So back to the exercise.
I get a bit of smoke-and-mirrors whiff from Winckowski. Dont ask me to elaborate. I can't. It's just feels.
My confidence in Brasier often exceeds what it should, especially against LHBs. But he never shrinks from the moment. Same with Robles. Sawamura just keeps being what he is. Quite effective about 70% of the time. Danish is Matt Albers. I keep asking myself, "is this the game where he sucks for good."?

All that said, and especially given the volatility of relievers, I'm going with "who is good now." That, if I'm right about Paxton, gets us down to 2 of Danish, Sawamura and Brasier. as a righty behind Houck, Whitlock and Schreiber, I'm not convinced thats something that necessarily needs upgrading.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah good post, @joe dokes - Right now, especially adding Whitlock and Taylor, it's a solid, solid bullpen. But I just think they could probably cheaply add one more really good RH reliever, preferably one that's a rental so it won't cost too much. Honestly, for a lot of reasons, Daniel Bard is probably perfect. Colorado is going nowhere. Bard is 37 years of age and doesn't figure into their future at all. He makes $4.4 million which isn't nothing for a team like Colorado. And he's in the last year of his contract. Meanwhile, he's been lights out this year, though the last 3 seasons since his comeback haven't all been good.

Past 3 seasons: 119.0 ip, 3.88 era, 1.38 whip, 10.7 k/9

So it's a bit of a risk. But not a HUGE risk, because he wouldn't cost too much (I'd imagine, anyway...or at least it's a price the Sox, with 40-man roster issues coming up, can easily afford), and they DO have a bunch of useful arms in case he would falter. But if he doesn't falter...man that's a dynamic weapon to add to a playoff run.
 

joe dokes

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If Bloom thinks Bard is likely to be better than the Sawamura/Brasier group, I'm in. And while this shouldn't matter, I would not be looking forward to the drumbeat of "WILL HE BE THE CLOSER (because he was at COL.)"? Not because it would affect Bard, but because it would affect my enjoyment of the game.
 

effectivelywild

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Yeah good post, @joe dokes - Right now, especially adding Whitlock and Taylor, it's a solid, solid bullpen. But I just think they could probably cheaply add one more really good RH reliever, preferably one that's a rental so it won't cost too much. Honestly, for a lot of reasons, Daniel Bard is probably perfect. Colorado is going nowhere. Bard is 37 years of age and doesn't figure into their future at all. He makes $4.4 million which isn't nothing for a team like Colorado. And he's in the last year of his contract. Meanwhile, he's been lights out this year, though the last 3 seasons since his comeback haven't all been good.

Past 3 seasons: 119.0 ip, 3.88 era, 1.38 whip, 10.7 k/9

So it's a bit of a risk. But not a HUGE risk, because he wouldn't cost too much (I'd imagine, anyway...or at least it's a price the Sox, with 40-man roster issues coming up, can easily afford), and they DO have a bunch of useful arms in case he would falter. But if he doesn't falter...man that's a dynamic weapon to add to a playoff run.
Am I the only one that worries that returning to the Sox might subliminally throw a wrench into Bard's psychology, causing his yips to resurface and putting a sad coda onto his already rollercoaster career? Although I suppose that returning and dominating would make for an equally satisfying end to his story.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I like Bard, but another high BB pitcher worries me a bit. Honestly think they just need another good arm and it doesn’t need to be a closer; and they shouldn’t have to give up a ton. See what the best you can get is with a mix of bait that includes Groome, Downs, Dalbec, Seabold, Winckowski and that’s probably sufficient. Trivino, Fullmer, Vest, Bass, Robertson, Effross, Crowe seem like the kind of names they should be after.
 

Niastri

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Yeah good post, @joe dokes - Right now, especially adding Whitlock and Taylor, it's a solid, solid bullpen. But I just think they could probably cheaply add one more really good RH reliever, preferably one that's a rental so it won't cost too much. Honestly, for a lot of reasons, Daniel Bard is probably perfect. Colorado is going nowhere. Bard is 37 years of age and doesn't figure into their future at all. He makes $4.4 million which isn't nothing for a team like Colorado. And he's in the last year of his contract. Meanwhile, he's been lights out this year, though the last 3 seasons since his comeback haven't all been good.

Past 3 seasons: 119.0 ip, 3.88 era, 1.38 whip, 10.7 k/9

So it's a bit of a risk. But not a HUGE risk, because he wouldn't cost too much (I'd imagine, anyway...or at least it's a price the Sox, with 40-man roster issues coming up, can easily afford), and they DO have a bunch of useful arms in case he would falter. But if he doesn't falter...man that's a dynamic weapon to add to a playoff run.
The thing I would worry about Bard is coming back to Boston... Maybe it's nothing, and maybe he walks into Fenway and instantly his yips come back and he's complete toast.

I fear that more for him than for the Sox, his recovery is something to be amazed about and to be thankful for, and he has the rest of his life to be glad he had a last chance at a decent MLB career. If he has psych issues again that end his career, man, that could stick with him.
 

Jimbodandy

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If the Sox are looking to deal minor leaguers (I do think he's right that the 40-man crunch might be real), here's how I'd categorize them...

Virtually untouchable unless they're getting an absolute star back: Bello, Mayer
Centerpiece in a deal for a really, really, really good player that the Sox would have locked up for years: Duran, Casas, Yorke, Walter, Winckowski, Seabold, Groome (still just 23 years old if you can believe it; feels like he's been in the system for a decade already), Rafaela, Dalbec
Guys I'd move for some needed help this year: Mata, Downs, Jordan, Crawford

There are others of course.
I think that Yorke and Casas belong in group 1. Better be getting a stud back, a real stud. Both missed some time, but the tools and production are real.


Law just had a note on him in his latest scouting article, too. Ends with this:
"His biggest problem is his fastball, which was 88-93 and clearly does not have great spin or other secondary characteristics. Hitters see the pitch too well, and he can’t use it to set up either of the off-speed pitches as a result. When he was an amateur, there was reason to think he’d pick up velocity as he filled out, but he’s going to turn 24 next month, and this might be all there is."
https://theathletic.com/3385194/2022/06/27/kyle-harrison-jay-groome-scouting-report/
Groome lost a year to TJ and a year to covid. If he were 22, nobody would be saying this. I'm not saying that there aren't red flags with Groome, but "being 24" shouldn't be one of them. It's archaic thinking.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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The thing I would worry about Bard is coming back to Boston... Maybe it's nothing, and maybe he walks into Fenway and instantly his yips come back and he's complete toast.

I fear that more for him than for the Sox, his recovery is something to be amazed about and to be thankful for, and he has the rest of his life to be glad he had a last chance at a decent MLB career. If he has psych issues again that end his career, man, that could stick with him.
I would take my chances on him. He had his problems not just in Boston but with many teams over many years. It wasn’t a Red Sox thing. And it isn’t a Coors thing. He has been more good than bad now into his third season. If he doesn’t pan out he doesn’t pan out.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I think that Yorke and Casas belong in group 1. Better be getting a stud back, a real stud. Both missed some time, but the tools and production are real.
Fair point.

Groome lost a year to TJ and a year to covid. If he were 22, nobody would be saying this. I'm not saying that there aren't red flags with Groome, but "being 24" shouldn't be one of them. It's archaic thinking.
Exactly. If he finally gets there and pitches well in the MLB from age 27-33, it'll be a shorter career than we hope, with a later start than we hope, but I'd still take it happily.
 

Niastri

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I would take my chances on him. He had his problems not just in Boston but with many teams over many years. It wasn’t a Red Sox thing. And it isn’t a Coors thing. He has been more good than bad now into his third season. If he doesn’t pan out he doesn’t pan out.
Bard's troubles started in Boston, which is why I would worry Boston would be filled with potential triggers not present elsewhere.

On the other hand, how amazing for us all if he comes in and shuts down MFY in the 9th in ALCS game 7 to help us to the World Series.
 

joe dokes

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I would take my chances on him. He had his problems not just in Boston but with many teams over many years. It wasn’t a Red Sox thing. And it isn’t a Coors thing. He has been more good than bad now into his third season. If he doesn’t pan out he doesn’t pan out.
Thinking about it some more, that's mostly where I am on Bard. I also think his acquisition cost will be a lot less than experts might think, as the "closer"™ label inflates prices among the talking head baseball-practitioners of conventional wisdom, but not among good GMs. Ultimately the question is whether he'll be better than anyone in the Brasier, Sawamura, Robles, Danish tier. Probably? and then Bloom can trade one or two of the others for the next Pivetta. Buy *and* sell.
 

RedOctober3829

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I like Bard, but another high BB pitcher worries me a bit. Honestly think they just need another good arm and it doesn’t need to be a closer; and they shouldn’t have to give up a ton. See what the best you can get is with a mix of bait that includes Groome, Downs, Dalbec, Seabold, Winckowski and that’s probably sufficient. Trivino, Fullmer, Vest, Bass, Robertson, Effross, Crowe seem like the kind of names they should be after.
They have a number of "good arms" that will be in the back end of the bullpen by the end of the year. Do they have a guy who can close out games against really good teams? We'll find out by the All-Star break. That would be what I'd be looking for on the market.
 

Average Reds

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Bard's troubles started in Boston, which is why I would worry Boston would be filled with potential triggers not present elsewhere.

On the other hand, how amazing for us all if he comes in and shuts down MFY in the 9th in ALCS game 7 to help us to the World Series.
Bard didn't have a case of the "yips," as you put it before. His issues were physical:

Bard was a productive pitcher during the first three seasons of his career, but his career began to unravel in 2012 when he had control issues. Bard underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in January 2014 to correct a shoulder issue, which he said was the main reason causing his performance to drop.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/former-red-sox-pitcher-daniel-bard-hopes-to-make-comeback/amp/

My concern with him is that he's much older and effectively near the end of his career. So yeah, there's a risk he falls off the table, but it's not because he can't handle the environment in Boston.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Bard didn't have a case of the "yips," as you put it before. His issues were physical:



https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/former-red-sox-pitcher-daniel-bard-hopes-to-make-comeback/amp/

My concern with him is that he's much older and effectively near the end of his career. So yeah, there's a risk he falls off the table, but it's not because he can't handle the environment in Boston.
Thoracic Outlet Syndrome was certainly a major part of his issues, but his control problems remained long after he had the corrective surgery as he tried to come back repeatedly in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017. There was definitely a psychological factor to his problems as well, and he's acknowledged it. That said, I don't think they had anything to do with Boston. He just happened to be with the Red Sox when the shit hit the fan for him, but they continued as he struggled in the minor leagues for a number of organizations.

I'm with you that the larger concern with him is his age and simply breaking down because he's 37. I don't think he's any greater of a risk than any other available pitcher to suddenly start pitching poorly. 99% of relievers carry that same risk of volatility.

I prefer to look at the bright side of him potentially returning. Not just for what he could contribute on the mound, but off the field as well. He spent a bunch of his time away from the mound mentoring other players. He credits that with helping his own perspective which may have been what led him back to the big leagues. Maybe, just maybe, he could help with someone like Matt Barnes. Barnes had a similar, seemingly out of nowhere collapse of his abilities. People forget that Bard was sensational in 2011 prior to the September swoon. He set a team record for consecutive scoreless appearances. Likewise, Barnes was having a career season, making the All Star team, and then the bottom fell out in the second half. Maybe there's some common ground and Bard can be of help just as a mentor. Getting a good Bard to shore up the pen in the second half and possibly "fixing" Barnes for 2023 would be a hell of a two-for-one.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They have a number of "good arms" that will be in the back end of the bullpen by the end of the year. Do they have a guy who can close out games against really good teams? We'll find out by the All-Star break. That would be what I'd be looking for on the market.
I would think Whitlock and Houck are our best bets to close games down the stretch. I would love to add a bonafide closer, but those guys don’t really exist to the extent they used to- and teams that aren’t in contention don’t seem to have many names that qualify. Bard, Robertson, and Iglesias look like the only proven closers who could be on the move (and even considering the first two guys as bonafide closers seems like a stretch).
 
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RedOctober3829

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I would think Whitlock and Houck are our best bets to close games down the stretch. I would love to add a bonafide closer, but those guys don’t really exist to the extent they used to- and teams that aren’t in contention don’t seem to have many names that qualify. Bard, Robertson, and Iglesias look like the only proven closers who could be on the move (and even considering the first two guys as bonafide closers seems like a stretch).
Whitlock would be the only guy I'd trust in a big spot in that bullpen at the moment.
 

chawson

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Bard would be good, but I’ve given up guessing when the Rockies are going to make constructive team-building decisions. Maybe they’ll just keep him.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Whitlock would be the only guy I'd trust in a big spot in that bullpen at the moment.
I don’t really disagree with you but I think that’s more a function of who the best relievers are these days. The top relievers this year by fWAR are Michael King, Ryan Helsley, Clay Homes, AJ Minter, Jorge Lopez, Josh Hader, Emmanuel Clase, Devin Williams, Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, David Bednar, Seranthony Dominguez, and Scott Effross. Even the top guys now are hardly established and proven.

I doubt there’s anyone available who we will totally trust in a big spot.
 

BornToRun

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I don’t really disagree with you but I think that’s more a function of who the best relievers are these days. The top relievers this year by fWAR are Michael King, Ryan Helsley, Clay Homes, AJ Minter, Jorge Lopez, Josh Hader, Emmanuel Clase, Devin Williams, Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, David Bednar, Seranthony Dominguez, and Scott Effross. Even the top guys now are hardly established and proven.

I doubt there’s anyone available who we will totally trust in a big spot.
I’d love Bednar. He’s been excellent and can throw multiple innings at a time.
 

TheYellowDart5

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Hard to argue that right-handed relief help shouldn't be at the top of the list in terms of needs. Zero good options beyond Houck and Schrieber in that department right now.
 

grimshaw

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The Pirates to me seem like the O's last season right now. They have lots of promising young guys up, and more to come very shortly. They also tried to sign Reynolds, which to me seems like they want to build around the talent they do have.

I'd be very surprised if Bednar was dealt, and even if he was shopped I think teams would have a tough time coming up with a package. He's worth a ton. And he's a reliever.

Can you imagine the message it sends to your fanbase trading your one all-star rep making no money whatsoever?
 

jtn46

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That's a weird one too because that division seems pretty soft. The Brewers should be better given they print aces but seem like they are going to have to scratch and claw to win the division and will probably fade when they have to make calls on extending Burnes/Woodruff/Hader. The Pirates should probably be looking at building up for 2024 or so, so I don't imagine they deal away from that window unless they are blown away.
 

chawson

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Interesting trade deadline article in The Athletic from Jayson Stark. Says many execs see the Reds as “the most important seller” because of starters Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, both in their final arb years in ‘23.

He quotes one to say Cincinnati would love to move Moustakas’ contract and are willing to eat a lot of money to do it. They say: “So would they do something where you have to take Moustakas to get Castillo? It wouldn’t surprise me.”

According to BTV, it wouldn’t be that hard to come up with a package worth Castillo and Moustakas, and even easier for one with Mahle/Moustakas (acknowledging that that BTV model isn’t everyone’s cup of tea).

Package A: Duran
Package B: Dalbec + Groome/Murphy/Crawford
Package C: Blaze Jordan, Hamilton, Jimenez Groome/Murphy/Crawford

These are all slight “overpays.” I’m sure it’ll be a bidding war, so maybe this is light. But also Cincinatti’s FO has been motivated to clear payroll that get talent back, so the ability to absorb Moustakas could be important.

Moustakas is under contract for $16M AAV through 2023. There’s no reason to think he’ll be good again, but he could be rosterable in a 2021 Travis Shaw sort of way. After a long injury recovery and short spring, his batting line since May 3 is .228/.344/.362. No problems DFAing him either.

It’s come up before, but I’m curious how this kind of deal would land with this board. You could look at this as “replacing” Eovaldi in the rotation next year, or, if you like, the ability to keep Whitlock in a MIRP role another season. We have a ton of money available under next year’s cap, and a ton of prospects needing 40-man protection it’d be better to trade than lose.

*Mahle missed a late May series in Toronto and I assume he’s still unvaccinated. That may make him less interesting to us, but OTOH it’s likely possible to schedule his starts around that final October weekend.
 

sean1562

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If you can convince the Reds to trade Castillo for Dalbec and Groome/Murphy/Crawford you do it as fast as possible before they come to their senses. Prime Moustakas is basically Bobby's ceiling but Dalbec is already 27 years old.

With Duran playing so well I would rather just hold on to him. I don't think Castillo really makes this team that much better this season but I also have problems seeing this team really competing against the Yankees/Dodgers/Astros in the playoffs with or without any big trade deadline acquisitions.