Red Sox Trade Deadline 2022

JM3

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Also, being like a 2.5x as expensive Rays is a pretty sweet model once up & running.
 

OCD SS

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Also, being like a 2.5x as expensive Rays is a pretty sweet model once up & running.
What I think isn’t being acknowledged is how long it can take to get such a system up and running. It’s not just about adding the prospects, it’s upgrading the entire scouting and development infrastructure so you can constantly turn out those contributions the way the Rays/ Dodgers/ Yankees do. I feel that anyone in the “you can always get more prospects, empty the farm for Soto” camp is missing 1) just how long this actually takes and 2) that the Sox are still way behind in this regard.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Team seems to have a real problem making decisions. Listening and seriously considering? Team is about to be 50-52 and in last place. What exactly are they doing here? And why punish Bogaerts and make him stay?
 

RedOctober3829

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Wonder if Bloom deals someone that isn’t a free agent? He did say they’re discussing things that people expect and don’t expect. Who would be a candidate to go that hasn’t been talked about? Alex Verdugo?
 

snowmanny

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Team seems to have a real problem making decisions. Listening and seriously considering? Team is about to be 50-52 and in last place. What exactly are they doing here? And why punish Bogaerts and make him stay?
?They want to keep X, and the Lester plan to let him go and bring him back failed.
 

chawson

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Team seems to have a real problem making decisions. Listening and seriously considering? Team is about to be 50-52 and in last place. What exactly are they doing here? And why punish Bogaerts and make him stay?
Man, I don't know how you arrive at "why punish Bogaerts and make him stay." Xander's public statement of relief he's not being traded -- and the fact that they'd tell him -- suggests more than anything that both sides believe they'll work something out.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Man, I don't know how you arrive at "why punish Bogaerts and make him stay." Xander's public statement of relief he's not being traded -- and the fact that they'd tell him -- suggests more than anything that both sides believe they'll work something out.
Sure, and then they’ll trade for Soto, extend Devers, X moves to 2nd and everyone lives happily ever after.. The cynical part of me thinks they don’t want to trade him because they don’t want to be the bad guys.

He’s their best trade chip, he’s a free agent. That they claim to have not even considered moving him is baffling to me.
 

soxhop411

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Sure, and then they’ll trade for Soto, extend Devers, X moves to 2nd and everyone lives happily ever after.. The cynical part of me thinks they don’t want to trade him because they don’t want to be the bad guys.

He’s their best trade chip, he’s a free agent. That they claim to have not even considered moving him is baffling to me.
You realize he has a NTC right?
 

BornToRun

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Sure, and then they’ll trade for Soto, extend Devers, X moves to 2nd and everyone lives happily ever after.. The cynical part of me thinks they don’t want to trade him because they don’t want to be the bad guys.

He’s their best trade chip, he’s a free agent. That they claim to have not even considered moving him is baffling to me.
I seriously doubt they give two thirds of a damn about being seen as the bad guys. There’s a reason they’re not trading Bogey and I’m going to choose to be optimistic about what that means. Whether it means they think we can turn this around or they like their chances of working out a long term deal, I don’t know.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Players get traded with NTCs all the time. They waive them for the specific trade. The clause only means they cannot be traded without their permission.
Yeah, exactly. Curt Schilling had a no trade clause, as did Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford, to name a few.
 

sean1562

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He has won 2 WS here, has played more games at SS than any other player in franchise history, is good friends with Devers, and is generally beloved in Boston. He could have been a FA earlier but signed a contract that paid below market for an elite SS in his prime years. Maybe he just likes being a part of the organization? The Phillies are the only team that I see that could really use him and its not like they are some WS favorite.

edit: What is his market even if we did put him on the market? What is an acceptable return from Philadelphia for a half season of Xander? Do we expect a top 100 prospect like Logan O'Hoppe?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/philadelphia-phillies-top-41-prospects-2022/

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/phillies/
 

EvilEmpire

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I think the Sox are doing Bogaerts a solid by saying that they won't trade him when they already know that he doesn't want to do it.

It's good for the Sox too. No fan backlash for trying to make a trade that Bogaerts would likely reject anyway. I mean, I'm sure if Bogaerts wanted to be traded, they'd know that and act accordingly too.
 

SoxinSeattle

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Team seems to have a real problem making decisions. Listening and seriously considering? Team is about to be 50-52 and in last place. What exactly are they doing here? And why punish Bogaerts and make him stay?
You're making assumptions about the FO and getting upset based on Twitter opinions? They are trying to thread a needle here. Wait as long as possible to sell to see if they have a chance this season. It's a waste of energy to judge Bloom based on a Jon F'n Heyman tweet. We'll have plenty to judge real soon.
 

Niastri

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My stoner theory is that the jump from AAA to ML has grown wider so top prospects are going to need longer time to adjust after a promotion with likely some hot streaks and super cold streaks before leveling off for a bit.
It’ll be more difficult for top budget teams to be patient.

Also wondering if that may be the inverse of pitchers- talent gap between your non-ace (no.3-4 type) and your top 3-4 pitching prospects in AAA is possibly less?
If this is true, trading for/buying guys who have been through and successfully endured that tough development trough and are about to become arbitration eligible might be a good strategy. Then signing then to longer deals that teams like Oakland can't afford.

Or resigning your own guys at that age, like Devers.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I don't see Eovaldi getting moved with his velocity issues. I don't think a team is going to want to take a chance on him turning it around at the price he may command. I think Pivetta is the more likely candidate to be dealt, maybe a swing man like Crawford unless they really think he's a key piece for the future. Beyond that, I'm sure how much value there is any anyone who has started multiple games for this team that's healthy and that they'd make available. In a perfect world, Nate would be, but I think the downturn in his velocity is going to keep any deals worth making away.

Re: The tweet, the players, coaches, and staff see those comments too. I'm sure they don't want to ruffle any feathers unnecessarily.
 

Niastri

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That’s not what I mean. Xander has spoken at least twice this year about wanting to get a deal done, and Boras has contradicted him in the press. You don’t have to be wearing a tinfoil hat to surmise that there is a little bit of daylight at the bare minimum between the player and his agent. It seems pretty clear to me that Xander would prefer to resign with the Red Sox. Which isn’t to say you have to get him for a song. And of course Boras doesn’t want to negotiate through the media.

The Sox, as I’ve said before, should be thinking like the Dodgers with their Rays-esque approach of developing the farm but using your deep pockets to sign (and keep) guys, as opposed to emptying the farm for guys though trades a la DD. For Henry this should work, assuming the farm produces MLB-caliber guys and a few studs.

So what does that mean for this team? Deal JD for prospects. If I’m Chaim, I see Xander as a rock for my lineup and offer more AAV and fewer years if I can. I back up the Brinks truck for Devers. And I try to sign one of the elite starters if they hit the market at big dollars (a la Price).

Vaz I try to re-sign given the lack of depth there unless somebody offers a huge payload – that may seem unlikely to us given his up and down tenure here but experienced catchers with 750 OPS who can hit elite speed can be an absolute spark plug for a team in the playoffs. He’s a guy I wouldn’t let go of unless someone (the Mets?) ponies up.

The Dodgers, not the Rays, John.
Vazquez is a decent defensive veteran catcher with World Series experience who hits .808OPS against lefties this year (without a huge platoon split). He could absolutely help a contender as a good starter or an excellent backup/platoon partner who plays DH once a week vs a lefty starter. Even if they think they'll use him sparingly in the playoffs, Vasquez could be critical in helping some team get there. He'll be traded for decent value if they decide to move him.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Wonder if Bloom deals someone that isn’t a free agent? He did say they’re discussing things that people expect and don’t expect. Who would be a candidate to go that hasn’t been talked about? Alex Verdugo?
Good question.

I don’t think Sale has value, but given the prospect cost of getting a frontline starter it’s not completely out of the question someone takes him essentially as a salary dump…especially if he might be back this year (which I tend to doubt).

I also imagine Bloom doesn’t value relievers year-to-year a great deal, so someone like Schreiber who a contender would really value might be worth sending out. My guess is that Houck and Whitlock are more highly valued internally.

That’s what I could come up with for ‘surprising’ guys….
 

soxhop411

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Sure, and then they’ll trade for Soto, extend Devers, X moves to 2nd and everyone lives happily ever after.. The cynical part of me thinks they don’t want to trade him because they don’t want to be the bad guys.

He’s their best trade chip, he’s a free agent. That they claim to have not even considered moving him is baffling to me.
View: https://twitter.com/jcmccaffrey/status/1552843094910967810?s=20&t=fkZ8DSs8-zaVvD59QjKkfg


This doesnt sound like someone who wants to be traded. So no its not really baffling they are not exploring traded Xander

oh. And more injuries
Rob Refsnyder has been dealing with an MCL injury, further depleting the Red Sox. Unclear whether it will require an IL stint. Hoping to avoid it.
View: https://twitter.com/chadjennings22/status/1553539572176396289
 

Ganthem

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I don't see Eovaldi getting moved with his velocity issues. I don't think a team is going to want to take a chance on him turning it around at the price he may command. I think Pivetta is the more likely candidate to be dealt, maybe a swing man like Crawford unless they really think he's a key piece for the future. Beyond that, I'm sure how much value there is any anyone who has started multiple games for this team that's healthy and that they'd make available. In a perfect world, Nate would be, but I think the downturn in his velocity is going to keep any deals worth making away.

Re: The tweet, the players, coaches, and staff see those comments too. I'm sure they don't want to ruffle any feathers unnecessarily.
What about Crawford's performance in the mlb to date makes you think he is a swing man? Everything we have seen in addition to his XFIP XERA and FIP indicate he is a decent back of the rotation starter with the possibility of becoming a mid rotation starter. Crawford should not be moved unless they get a really really good return.
 

chawson

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Sure, and then they’ll trade for Soto, extend Devers, X moves to 2nd and everyone lives happily ever after.. The cynical part of me thinks they don’t want to trade him because they don’t want to be the bad guys.

He’s their best trade chip, he’s a free agent. That they claim to have not even considered moving him is baffling to me.
Do the non-cynical parts of you ever post anymore?

Yes, I think the Bogaerts saga ends boringly and happily, and he stays for a modest raise. Devers stays too.

Odds are against a Soto deal, but I’m in favor. Trade Verdugo to a team with a park that doesn’t brutally punish mediocre power to right field, and add the return to the Soto haul. Build around three of the best hitters on the planet and put this pitching development machine to work.
 

Yaz4Ever

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What kind of return are we expecting for JDM or Vazquez in this new expanded wild card era? Not expecting someone else’s Mayer, but what about their Casas? Ordinarily, I’d be expecting lottery picks but I don’t know what to expect anymore.
 

Ale Xander

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Vasquez seems like a logical candidate

he’s decent (so you’d get a decent prospect or 2, position is weak leaguewide) and you have a backup in place in Wong and the fanbase won’t miss him
 

scottyno

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How often does a contending team ever trade for a starting catcher midseason? I'd doubt it's very often other than if you lose a guy to a serious injury because you can't exactly just plug and play a catcher, unlike any other position, because they need to learn the strengths and weaknesses of every pitcher on the staff. You might be trading for a "better" guy, but if they don't know your staff as well as the old guy you'll end up with worse results short term.
 

VORP Speed

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Rays looking for a catcher. Zunino out for season and Mejia hurt, too. Whispers about them being in on Contreras, but if they can’t get him, would Chaim do a deal with one of the teams they are chasing for a WC spot? Would sort of shatter any myth around still trying to contend. They could use JD, too.
 

E5 Yaz

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The thing about Vasquez is that I think he might be the one guy who would come back to the Red Sox in the offseason if he's traded now
 

Burn Out

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How often does a contending team ever trade for a starting catcher midseason? I'd doubt it's very often other than if you lose a guy to a serious injury because you can't exactly just plug and play a catcher, unlike any other position, because they need to learn the strengths and weaknesses of every pitcher on the staff. You might be trading for a "better" guy, but if they don't know your staff as well as the old guy you'll end up with worse results short term.
Perhaps the new mentality of calling pitches from the dugout and PitchCom makes it easier for a new catcher to plug and play.
 

snowmanny

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That’s one of the consequences of having a team full of holes and barely anyone in the minors ready to step up. For 2023 they aren’t looking for that final big piece to the puzzle, they are crawling on the floor seeing if there are any pieces to the border lying around.
 

Steve Dillard

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That’s one of the consequences of having a team full of holes and barely anyone in the minors ready to step up. For 2023 they aren’t looking for that final big piece to the puzzle, they are crawling on the floor seeing if there are any pieces to the border lying around.
Absolutely correct. You don't become the Angels with a top heavy roster, you first build up your roster before adding the final piece. I don't want 800 million tied up in Soto/Devers, as fun as it would be to have 2 of 9 sports in the lineup. Too many deadweights would kill any rally.
 

chawson

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Van Everyman

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Oh boo hoo, we won’t trade the entire farm for two guys who want a half billion dollars over 15 years. Chaim isn’t above criticism but can we please stop with the “The Red Sox used to be a good team” Mahler 9 garbage? We were two games from the World Series less than a year ago. I hoped they’d be better after what we saw in June too but nobody stems a collapse with 6 weeks of AAAA players.

Instead of bemoaning the lack of hot stove sizzle and relevance let’s focus on retaining the elite talent we have and do a better job of trading some of the outgoing talent for depth pieces.
 

OCD SS

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This FO keeps things incredibly close to the vest so I’ll reserve judgment until Tuesday. (Tomase’s piece also ignores that the Sox gave out the fifth-largest contract of the winter, though Story’s season has made that easier to forget.)

But yes, the sentiment does feel accurate and it’s maddening.
Do any of the large contracts handed out this past offseason look like good ideas other than possibly Correa (and then only because it’s a short commitment)?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Large contracts often aren’t great value, but when you aren’t cranking out productive and cheap talent, what’s the alternative, if you want to be competitive? I’m sure that the contracts that Boagerts and Devers will get won’t be great deals but if the Sox want to be good next year they are probably going to have to agree to some deals they don’t love.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Articles like Tomase's remind me of the Theo-era Sox, and the hand-wringing back then about how the Sox weren't all in on the highest profile, biggest name free agents and trade targets. Back when they let Pedro and Lowe and Damon walk, and trading Manny, and the biggest free agent contract they gave out was to JD Drew. They were "too cheap" to trade for Miggy Cabrera or sign free agents like Teixeira. The media (and a portion of the fan base) want fancy sparkly stuff even if it's not the best path to success because it gives them something to talk about.
 

sezwho

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What I think isn’t being acknowledged is how long it can take to get such a system up and running. It’s not just about adding the prospects, it’s upgrading the entire scouting and development infrastructure so you can constantly turn out those contributions the way the Rays/ Dodgers/ Yankees do. I feel that anyone in the “you can always get more prospects, empty the farm for Soto” camp is missing 1) just how long this actually takes and 2) that the Sox are still way behind in this regard.
This post is swimming around in my head now (thanks OCD :)), perhaps slightly more in light of what seems to be a strategic decision to draft and sign position players from high school in an ongoing way.

I can absolutely imagine a very impressive presentation, with many charts, where whatever contortion of a Black Scholes model they are using to forecast WAR (or Carmine Jr's proprietary combo of offense and defense metrics) over a 10yr future, has shown that these contracts are just a flat out terrible idea. Like whether its $30M or $40m or more, once you get past N years the model shows it will end up killing your team. Sale is a reasonable example of the type of pressure that can put on your org, now imagine a couple at the same time. Ok, too soon, we don't have to imagine unfortunately.

Similarly, I can imagine a presentation that highlights how many high end position players were drafted out of high school and the 'excess value' available by drafting there.

The problem is thats a recipe for a potentially loooong transition. No idea how many years but we're in three and this ain't looking like much. If you are out on the big/long contracts (i.e Story + years + AAV) because you legitimately believe its a bad call, and high schoolers are the future, you better get better at bridge building or be willing to spend your way through those years. The Sox are spending, so thats not nothing.
 
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chawson

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Do any of the large contracts handed out this past offseason look like good ideas other than possibly Correa (and then only because it’s a short commitment)?
Yes, I’d say so. Freeman of course. Gausman, Marte, Schwarber, Scherzer. Semien has looked great since they fixed the ball (142 wRC+ since late May). Seager is overpaid but on pace for a 5.5 fWAR season. Baez and Castellanos have been serious duds, and Suzuki is on the fence. Not all of them make sense for their team’s win curve. If anything it’s the mid-range free agent contracts that haven’t looked good.

I don’t want the Sox to throw money at just anyone. I liked the idea of signing Schwarber and trading JDM last winter, and I liked Stroman (who’s been okay but not great). But Soto is on another level. I can see why JWH or anyone would be squeamish about laying out half a billion dollars of their money for anything, but as fans, we should support the acquisition of a 23-year-old Ted Williams, plus keeping Devers.

It may sound scary if you frame it like “$800M in payroll commitments”, but those two players are about 25 percent of the total annual payroll — high, but not that bad. Besides, if you own the Boston Red Sox, aren’t you already committed to a billion dollars in payroll over the next five years? Just use that money to secure two of the best and most beloved players on the planet and trust your scouting and development teams to fill out the rest.
 

Max Power

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I looked at last year's top 10 in both leagues for both MVP and Cy Young to see how the team they were with acquired them originally. They could have signed extensions or re-signed with their team, but I looked at how they got there to start with. Of the top 20 MVP vote getters, we had


Free Agent Signing
3​
Traded as a Major Leaguer
1​
International Free Agent
5​
Drafted
8​
Traded Before Reaching Majors
3​



For the Cy Young award vote getters (there were only 9 in the NL), it was


Free Agent Signing
7​
Traded as a Major Leaguer
1​
International Free Agent
1​
Drafted
6​
Traded Before Reaching Majors
3​


I'd need to look back at more years for sure, but I think that matches up pretty well with what we understand about player aging curves. Almost all position players decline in their 30s, no matter how great they were before they got their big free agent contract. Pitchers peaking in their 30s isn't particularly surprising if they can maintain some level of health.

You can build a great pitching staff out of free agent signings and major league trades, but it's not a good way to build a lineup. You need to get lucky in the draft, international signings, or trading for prospects. That's a little concerning for the Red Sox next year.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Articles like Tomase's remind me of the Theo-era Sox, and the hand-wringing back then about how the Sox weren't all in on the highest profile, biggest name free agents and trade targets. Back when they let Pedro and Lowe and Damon walk, and trading Manny, and the biggest free agent contract they gave out was to JD Drew. They were "too cheap" to trade for Miggy Cabrera or sign free agents like Teixeira. The media (and a portion of the fan base) want fancy sparkly stuff even if it's not the best path to success because it gives them something to talk about.
Yup, writers want big trades and signings so they can dump on expensive players for clicks when they slump.
 

Manzivino

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Large contracts often aren’t great value, but when you aren’t cranking out productive and cheap talent, what’s the alternative, if you want to be competitive? I’m sure that the contracts that Boagerts and Devers will get won’t be great deals but if the Sox want to be good next year they are probably going to have to agree to some deals they don’t love.
We’re watching the alternative - take your medicine while the farm system rebuilds and fill holes with short term commitments to guys you think are undervalued or can bounce back from injury. Sometimes it works (2013, 2021), most times it doesn’t. This team was competitive into July and probably would have played meaningful games in late September had it not been for the rash of injuries, that’s not great but it’s not nothing.

I agree with you that it’s really unlikely to have a competitive roster without contracts that look bad in the tail years, that’s the cost of signing premium talent post-arbitration. It’s going to take a lot of things to break right for the Sox to be competitive next year, I think they’re 2-3 years away from their next window opening.
 

OCD SS

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… Just use that money to secure two of the best and most beloved players on the planet and trust your scouting and development teams to fill out the rest.
But if his part goes to my other post (quoted by @sezwho) - if we are talking about the next 5 years (Devers prime) then we’re mostly talking about using players who are already in the system to fill in around Soto and Devers and it goes without saying that you’re going to be using the player pool left over from the hypothetical Soto trade. I don’t think I’d be that optimistic about that pool supplementing a MLB lineup… which would put us right back in the position of having to pay free agents to stay competitive.
 

BaseballJones

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Large contracts often aren’t great value, but when you aren’t cranking out productive and cheap talent, what’s the alternative, if you want to be competitive? I’m sure that the contracts that Boagerts and Devers will get won’t be great deals but if the Sox want to be good next year they are probably going to have to agree to some deals they don’t love.
They will soon be cranking out productive and cheap talent, as these really nice prospects work their way to the majors.

It took Houston a bunch of really terrible years to become a juggernaut. The Sox are retooling everything on the fly while hoping to not totally tank (I don’t necessarily mean deliberately…I mean just not be a godawful 100 loss team year after year) like Houston did.