Drek717 said:I don't think the intent was to not sign Lester, I think the intent was to work out an extension before the season started, but they let Lucchino be the point man and his whole "contested living" approach resulted in spoiling talks before they ever really got going with a 4/$70M. At that point Lester made it clear he wasn't negotiating during the season unless they came 95% of the way to a market value deal, so Henry and Cherington wisely concluded that if they were going to pay market value it was better to keep their options open and make sure Lester didn't blow his elbow/shoulder apart, regress to 2012 Lester, etc. before doing so. Turns out Lester was a horse while the rest of the team cratered, and a very interesting trade possibility emerged, worth taking on some extra risk with resigning Lester.
Once they had already gone down the road of paying at or close to full market value there was no point giving the deal early, and in the end it has paid off pretty well. It'll pay off even more if they get Cespedes to a nice team friendly deal this winter, something like 3/$45M or so.
Lucchino is the protege of Edward Bennet Williams, a renowned trial lawyer who embraced the view that a professional interaction is a contest to be won. Lester's willingness for a hometown discount only moved the bar for what Lucchino considered "winning" further away from market value, it didn't make the likelihood of striking a deal increase. If Lester had suggested before negotiations that he'd take 5 years at $50M Lucchino would have offered 4 at $32M.tbb345 said:
What do you mean by "contested living" approach? I agree with just about everything else in this post but not quite sure what that means
The only problem with trading for Latos is what the Reds needs are versus the Sox' mL talent. They need middle infielders and probably want to add more starting pitching in moving Latos as losing both he and Cueto in the span of 12 months will leave their staff pretty weak. So would they take two starters for him or will they insist on getting a position player?BornToRun said:The more I think about it, the more I really want us to get Mat Latos. He's still young, he'll turn 27 in December, and he's got a proven track record of being a top of the rotation level starter.
We have an abundance of minor league talent so we can afford to swing a deal for him and leave our farm in good shape. He's also only under contract for 2015 before hitting free agency so I'd also imagine that that would help mitigate the cost somewhat.
My dream offseason would be to re-sign Lester, deal for Latos, and sign Mat to an extension before he hits FA. That way we have our proven horse in Lester and Latos locked up through his prime years slotted at the top of the rotation going forward.
If the Reds really do make Latos available, I hope Cherington makes a serious try at acquiring him.
With Lester, John Lackey and Jake Peavey all gone via trade, Buchholz is the senior member of Boston’s pitching staff. He realizes this is an opportunity for him to step up.
"We had a chance to have a brief conversation about that yesterday,” Farrell said. “That is not to say that Clay is going to come in looking different, acting different, or taking a completely different approach. He benefited by being around those veteran pitchers previously -- the guys we talked about the past few days. He now has more experience in this ballpark and this division than any other. He should look upon himself as a resource for others to gain from the things he’s experienced in between the lines.”
To pour water over your filthy hair every inning, the key is.E5 Yaz said:
In a world where 1.5 years of David Price gets Smyly and Franklin I don't see how 1 year of Latos is worth some kind of massive haul. Teams value years of control now more than ever. Why would a club give a fortune in prospects for one year of Latos when they could sign Floyd, Masterson, etc. on the FA market for just money instead? Latos is better but he isn't worth a gutting a farm system for the right to pay him ~$10M+ for one year before he goes to FA.Papelbon's Poutine said:
Holy prospect humping, Batman.
There is no earthly way Workman + Coyle even gets a return phone call, let alone grab the interest of CIN.
If CIN wants Marrero plus any pitcher other than Owens, you do it in a Manziel heartbeat, because he should cost more than an all glove SS and a solid SP prospect.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/02/following-trade-deadline-contenders-still-have-shot-improve-through-waiver-deals/VDZ3m3tYtPzRH9KwKZagRP/story.html?p1=Article_InThisSection_Bottom
9. Henry Owens, LHP, Pawtucket — With the Red Sox’ top pitching prospect now in Triple A and primed to get two months’ worth of starts, if he pitches well Owens could be in competition for a starting role on the major league team next season. Said one major league scout who watched many of Owens’s starts, “There’s no reason to hold him back or not rush him. If he has success at Triple A, he’s going to make an impact at the major league level. Like any young pitcher, you have to be patient. But he has a great feel for pitching.”
I'd say the chances of Owens not being in the rotation at some point next season is incredibly close to zero barring catastrophic injury. I've felt the FO over the last few years has been a little slow to promote from AA to AAA while being a little fast to promote from AAA to MLB (likely because of the AAA logjam they've been working with). Unless Buchholz bounces back well for 2015, the Sox sign the right two FA starters, and two of the older SP prospects are pitching lights out baseball, all sans-injuries, there is no way Owens isn't their first option from AAA once we get to about mid/late June 2015.TheoShmeo said:I posted this in the Owens thread and yes, please consider the source (Cafardo). But dare to dream a little.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/02/following-trade-deadline-contenders-still-have-shot-improve-through-waiver-deals/VDZ3m3tYtPzRH9KwKZagRP/story.html?p1=Article_InThisSection_Bottom
OK, maybe a pipe dream. What's more likely, Lester back in Boston or Owens in the rotation at some point next season?
Not if he can get $60m more guaranteed (or even $5/120) from another team. Yeah he could probably get that in his next contract but not if he gets hurt. That would be a $30-$60m gamble that he would remain healthy through the first three years and you'd think he'd be signed if he was willing to leave that much on the table.LostinNJ said:Maybe the way to get Lester is to offer huge money but not a lot of years. There seems to be a consensus that he will get 6/150, and also that the Red Sox will never commit to such a long contract. So why not offer something like 3/90? Would he take that?
LostinNJ said:Maybe the way to get Lester is to offer huge money but not a lot of years. There seems to be a consensus that he will get 6/150, and also that the Red Sox will never commit to such a long contract. So why not offer something like 3/90? Would he take that?
nice work. Your posts are some of the best, most thought out on this site, without a hint of mean. thanksDrek717 said:In a world where 1.5 years of David Price gets Smyly and Franklin I don't see how 1 year of Latos is worth some kind of massive haul. Teams value years of control now more than ever. Why would a club give a fortune in prospects for one year of Latos when they could sign Floyd, Masterson, etc. on the FA market for just money instead? Latos is better but he isn't worth a gutting a farm system for the right to pay him ~$10M+ for one year before he goes to FA.
What I suggested would depend on the Reds having a pretty high grade on Coyle based on this past season, sure, but then most teams probably should after this season of him blowing up AA. Compare it to the Price trade.
Smyly peaked as the #82 prospect by MLB.com and never cracked BA's top 100. Workman never did either. Both are 25. Smyly has pitched to a 4.08 FIP with a 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9. Workman has pitched to a 4.48 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, and 6.8 K/9. Both pitched to better rate stats in 2013 working primarily as relievers, Smyly with a 2.31 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, and 9.6 K/9. Workman was 3.43 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, and 10.2 K/9. Is Smyly better? Sure. Clearly a better reliever, but Workman actually had his best innings in 2013 as a starter when in 3 starts he had a 2.45 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 1.96 BB/9, and 8.84 K/9. He also was a big playoff bullpen performer in 2013.
Then we have Franklin and Coyle. Franklin made a lot of lists following the 2010 season when a strong A ball season at 19 put him on the map as a potential fast riser and he made both BA's and BP's top 100 (53 and 44 respectively). His numbers regressed a bit at A+ in 2011, although with a strong performance in a late call-up to AA. Still, he dropped from the top 100 on both BA and BP, only making it on MLB.com's list. A strong 2012 at AA and a respectable showing at AAA got him back on the lists, 79 with BA's 2013 list and 72 with BP's. Franklin can play a little SS but is most likely a 2B, that is where his mL PT has trended the last two years and where the majority of his ML action has been. Meanwhile Coyle is a 2B with the ability to play 3B and is in the middle of a AA season that eclipses Franklin's 2012 that put him back on the top 100 lists. Coyle will likely jump into the bottom 50 of most lists for next year if he can rebound from his July slump.
Is it 1:1 value compared to what Price got? Nope, not arguing that. But it is a comparable pairing with a reasonable downgrade expected for the fact that Latos is 1. not a deadline pickup with 2-3 months of extra service in the middle of a WS push and 2. not as good as David Price. If that was the best young talent the market had to offer for Price during what everyone thought was a seller's deadline and Andrew Friedman, the guy who got Myers and Odorizzi for Shields, thought it was the best deal he'd get on Price over the next 18 or so months that is pretty telling as to how the league values prospects at this time.
Also, Marrero hit very well at AA this season and has been ok for someone getting a mid-season AAA call-up for the first time. There is a very real chance he's more than just an all glove SS in about a year or so of further development.
NDame616 said:
No way in hell. Why would he only take a 3 year deal when he can probably lock in 6 or 7 years? If he was 26, he'd maybe take 3/90 so he could get back on the market going into his 29/30 year old season.
What possible benefit would he have for taking a 3 year deal over a 6 or 7 year deal?
That idea makes a lot of sense. The Sox offense looks like it should bounce back with the additions of Craig and Cespedes and assuming one more good year out of Ortiz. Hopefully Pedrioa can bounce back to even 2012, 2013 levels. Bogaerts, Bradley & MIddlebrooks and any other of the kiddie corps begins to grow offensively. Now Cespedes in only on board though 2015 (for now anyway) and the AL East is not the powerhouse of a few years ago so the division could be had with the 2 additions Rasputin list.Rasputin said:Signing Lester and Shields makes a ton of sense to me. Shields can probably be had for a four year deal. For 2015 you're going with Lester, Shields, Buchholz, and two of the kids. For 2016, you buy out Buchholz option and go with Lester, Shields, and three of the kids.
We know he wants to play in Boston, so this plan allows him to do that. We know he wants market value; this plan gives him more than that. Assuming he doesn't get hurt (and what athlete assumes he will get hurt?), and assuming he continues to pitch well (and what athlete assumes he won't continue to perform well?), he can come out of this contract at 33 years old and get one more big contract. And who knows? -- by that time revenue may have increased yet again and he can get the next three years at more than 30 million per.NDame616 said:
No way in hell. Why would he only take a 3 year deal when he can probably lock in 6 or 7 years? If he was 26, he'd maybe take 3/90 so he could get back on the market going into his 29/30 year old season.
What possible benefit would he have for taking a 3 year deal over a 6 or 7 year deal?
I don't see the logic here. If it's a bad gamble for Lester, doesn't that mean it has to be a good gamble for the team? How can it be a bad gamble for both?Puffy said:
Besides, I'm not even sure the Red Sox would offer 3/90. I doubt both sides would be in on a deal like that.
It Could Certainly Be Bad Value For The Red Sox But Still Less Value For Lester Than Is Available In The Market (Which Is Even Worse Value For The Club).LostinNJ said:I don't see the logic here. If it's a bad gamble for Lester, doesn't that mean it has to be a good gamble for the team? How can it be a bad gamble for both?
LostinNJ said:I don't see the logic here. If it's a bad gamble for Lester, doesn't that mean it has to be a good gamble for the team? How can it be a bad gamble for both?
Puffy said:
The idea of massive overpays to shorten the deals comes up a lot around here, but there are reasons why we don't really see it in the real world very much.
Good post, although I think Price deal is both an outlier combined with the fact that Andrew Friedman must for some reason have a much higher value on Drew Smyly than most of the baseball world. I mean Samardzija (and Hamel) got the As best prospect.In a world where 1.5 years of David Price gets Smyly and Franklin I don't see how 1 year of Latos is worth some kind of massive haul. Teams value years of control now more than ever. Why would a club give a fortune in prospects for one year of Latos when they could sign Floyd, Masterson, etc. on the FA market for just money instead? Latos is better but he isn't worth a gutting a farm system for the right to pay him ~$10M+ for one year before he goes to FA.
Alex Wilson optioned.Rasputin said:I have been following this team for going on thirty years and this is the most confused about the roster that I have ever been.
Is Wilson going down for Wright? Or Layne? Did Buchholz take a nap with his kid again?
Gracias.soxhop411 said:Alex Wilson optioned.
He's a known quantity, and he's not good enough that they need to create ABs for him when they have other players to evaluate and break in.Rasputin said:Gracias.
So Layne is going to stick around because lefty and the bullpen is going to be Uehara, Tazawa, Badenhop, Breslow, Layne, Mujica, and for the moment, at least, Wright, while the rotation is Buchholz, de la Rosa, Workman, Webster, and Kelly.
Right?
And Betts has taken Gomes' spot and he's gotta play so it looks like they're going to do a Bradley/Betts platoon in center with Betts also getting time against righties in a split with Cespedes, Craig, and Nava.
Nava's getting screwed here, isn't he?
Lose Remerswaal said:So, Wright was up in case . . . Buchholz sucked and they needed a long guy?
soxhop411 said:
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal · 21m
One #RedSox person said that club president Larry Lucchino only acts when back is to wall. That person still confident Lester will return.
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/495680212970262528
I read it as perhaps now that he sees his stunts backfired, he may realize he needs to make a more respectable offer.Jaylach said:
Am I the only one who read this as "The Lester trade was Ben backing Lucchino into a corner"?
Jaylach said:
Am I the only one who read this as "The Lester trade was Ben backing Lucchino into a corner"?
Not a bad gamble for both rather a bad result forLostinNJ said:I don't see the logic here. If it's a bad gamble for Lester, doesn't that mean it has to be a good gamble for the team? How can it be a bad gamble for both?
Rudy Pemberton said:Lester is going to get better offers from teams that are much better than the Sox. That seems like the biggest obstacle to me.
Does anyone really think Lucchino alone informs these decisions?InsideTheParker said:I read it as perhaps now that he sees his stunts backfired, he may realize he needs to make a more respectable offer.
soxhop411 said:
Sean McAdam @Sean_McAdam 8s
Steven Wright optioned back to Pawtucket after the game. Red Sox will bring up another bullpen arm for Tuesday in STL.
https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/496148331740278785
People are under rating Nick Franklin too. And forgetting about the third guy who may be the key in Friedman's mind for all we know.wade boggs chicken dinner said:Good post, although I think Price deal is both an outlier combined with the fact that Andrew Friedman must for some reason have a much higher value on Drew Smyly than most of the baseball world. I mean Samardzija (and Hamel) got the As best prospect.
Friedman would never have traded Price in the division, but it seems like a lot of clubs - including the Red Sox - could have made offers that would easily have surpassed what Rays got. People are giving Friedman the benefit of the doubt here, but it will really be interesting to see what Smyly's ceiling is.
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/497131885831921664Corsi said:Long shot, but Rosenthal is reporting that Hamels has been claimed on waivers by unidentified club.
RedOctober3829 said:https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/497131885831921664
Hamels can only be sent to 9 teams without his consent: Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Nationals, Cardinals, Braves, Rangers, Padres, and Yankees.
A REAL long shot .. he'd have to make it through the National League first ..RedOctober3829 said:https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/497131885831921664
Hamels can only be sent to 9 teams without his consent: Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Nationals, Cardinals, Braves, Rangers, Padres, and Yankees.