Red Sox starting pitching going forward

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

In a short span, we have traded away 4/5 of our OD starting rotation.
 
obviously this season is for the birds, and no one should have a problem going with the rookies or close to rookies fopr the last 2 months. 
 
What is the plan for 2015?
 
Right now, as credible 2015 starters we seem to have:
 
SP (blank) hope to sign Lester
SP Buchholz
SP Workman
SP Webster?
SP RdlR?
 
How confident are we that Webster, Workman, and RdlR will pitch well enough these 2 months and in ST to earn these spots? How confident are we in Clay to deserve a #2 spot? If we don't sign Lester, what is Plan B?  Is there enough quality depth in AA or AAA in case the 4 starters we have falter?
 
 
 
 

 

[bosockboy]

In a short span, we have traded away 4/5 of our OD starting rotation.
 
obviously this season is for the birds, and no one should have a problem going with the rookies or close to rookies fopr the last 2 months. 
 
What is the plan for 2015?
 
Right now, as credible 2015 starters we seem to have:
 
SP (blank) hope to sign Lester
SP Buchholz
SP Workman
SP Webster?
SP RdlR?
 
How confident are we that Webster, Workman, and RdlR will pitch well enough these 2 months and in ST to earn these spots? How confident are we in Clay to deserve a #2 spot? If we don't sign Lester, what is Plan B?  Is there enough quality depth in AA or AAA in case the 4 starters we have falter?

Sign or acquire two starters.

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

...

 

[glennhoffmania]

The moves today must mean they plan to spend some money on a pitcher this offseason.  It would make no sense to acquire these hitters and then rely on Buchholz and 4 kids next year.  What worries me is that instead of giving the money to Lester, they give it to the wrong guy.

 

[Stitch01]

Lester could be the wrong guy to give it to as well given they are going to have to break the bank to get him back here, especially if he is awesome in Oakland.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Sure.  But gun to your head, you have to sign Scherzer, Shields or Lester to a 6/150 deal.  Who do you pick?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Sure.  But gun to your head, you have to sign Scherzer, Shields or Lester to a 6/150 deal.  Who do you pick?

 
There is absolutely no chance Shields gets 6 years. None. Zilch. Nada. Zip. Nil. He also very likely isn't getting more than a 20 million AAV.  Given a choice between the other two, I'd probably take Lester, but I can't rule out the emotional bias that might be at play there. They're pretty comparable pitchers.
 
Edit to add: Lester won't cost a draft pick, which makes him an easier call over Scherzer in that scenaio. Draft pick compensation is also one of the reasons Shields won't get a contract anywhere near the ones Lester and Scherzer will end up with.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Sure.  But gun to your head, you have to sign Scherzer, Shields or Lester to a 6/150 deal.  Who do you pick?

What about Price?  That would be interesting.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What about Price?  That would be interesting.

 
Price isn't a free agent this winter, the other three are.
 
I kinda like the idea of Shields at 3/57 or in that ball park.  Maybe he bites, maybe he doesn't.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

 
Price isn't a free agent this winter, the other three are.
 
I kinda like the idea of Shields at 3/57 or in that ball park.  Maybe he bites, maybe he doesn't.

Of course.  Brain fart with all the Price trade talk.

 

[CaskNFappin]

Reds are dangling Latos according to Stark on Twitter. Get it done Ben!

 

[Rasputin]

Signing Lester and Shields makes a ton of sense to me. Shields can probably be had for a four year deal. For 2015 you're going with Lester, Shields, Buchholz, and two of the kids. For 2016, you buy out Buchholz option and go with Lester, Shields, and three of the kids. 

 

[nvalvo]

Sure.  But gun to your head, you have to sign Scherzer, Shields or Lester to a 6/150 deal.  Who do you pick?

 
Lester. 

 

[joe dokes]

I honestly thought the "going forward" part of the thread title was referring to tomorrow, not 2015.

 

[BornToRun]

Reds are dangling Latos according to Stark on Twitter. Get it done Ben!

That's an interesting option. 26 years old with a 113 career ERA+ with a 3.40 FIP and a 1.15 WHIP. He's a FA after next year according to BRef but I doubt he'll come cheap

 

[foulkehampshire]

Reds are dangling Latos according to Stark on Twitter. Get it done Ben!

 
Matt Latos would be an incredible player to target. Still young too, would be a guy you'd want to extend. Been a workhorse until this year.

 

[JimBoSox9]

Signing Lester and Shields makes a ton of sense to me. Shields can probably be had for a four year deal. For 2015 you're going with Lester, Shields, Buchholz, and two of the kids. For 2016, you buy out Buchholz option and go with Lester, Shields, and three of the kids. 

 
For me, the huge ? about 2015 is whether they're slotting 2 or 3 SP slots for breaking in youth.  Right now I'd have to say it feels like they're leaning towards 2 (with the caveat that it's obviously early and murky), which I sort of translate as them looking at 2016, not 2015, as The Year where they start going all-in.  

 

[glennhoffmania]

I think Shields for three years is a total fantasy.  This is his one shot to cash in and someone will back up the truck for him.
 
Masterson is not the answer unless he's the second guy signed.
 
I can honestly say I'd take Lester over Scherzer without any emotions attached to it. 

 

[strek1]

It will not be BUCH & kids next year.  Anyone who thinks they aren't going to buy at least one big anchor guy is not thinking clearly.  The hope is that the MFY don't get both Lester and Scherzer.

 

[BornToRun]

 
Matt Latos would be an incredible player to target. Still young too, would be a guy you'd want to extend. Been a workhorse until this year.

Certainly a sexy target if he's really available. I definitely want us to be in on him.

 

[Stitch01]

Sure.  But gun to your head, you have to sign Scherzer, Shields or Lester to a 6/150 deal.  Who do you pick?

I'd flip between Lester and Scherzer but expect both contracts to suck more often than not

 

[foulkehampshire]

Certainly a sexy target if he's really available. I definitely want us to be in on him.

 
He'd probably take a Beckett-esque prospect package though. You probably start with Betts + a blue chip SP prospect.  

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I think Shields for three years is a total fantasy.  This is his one shot to cash in and someone will back up the truck for him. 

It'll take at least 3 plus a vesting option, but he's not getting 6 years. Going 5 would be getting crazy. I'm guessing he signs for 4 years guaranteed at an AAV of 18-20 million.

 

[BornToRun]

 
He'd probably take a Beckett-esque prospect package though. You probably start with Betts + a blue chip SP prospect.  

He's certain to cost us some really good prospects but he's a guy who really could be worth it depending on what the exact price is and if he's amenable to an extension.

 

[glennhoffmania]

It'll take at least 3 plus a vesting option, but he's not getting 6 years. Going 5 would be getting crazy. I'm guessing he signs for 4 years guaranteed at an AAV of 18-20 million.

 
Yeah that's fair.  I shouldn't have lumped them all into 6 year deals.  Allow me to rephrase.  You have to sign one of those three guys for 25m per year until they're 36.  Who do you pick?  I still pick Lester.  History may prove me wrong, but as of right now I think he has the lowest risk and highest floor.

 

[Rasputin]

 
For me, the huge ? about 2015 is whether they're slotting 2 or 3 SP slots for breaking in youth.  Right now I'd have to say it feels like they're leaning towards 2 (with the caveat that it's obviously early and murky), which I sort of translate as them looking at 2016, not 2015, as The Year where they start going all-in.  

 
I just don't buy the notion that they're going with three kids next year. It might be different if one of the kids had been holding down a rotation spot all year, but after Buchholz and the guys we've traded, Brandon Workman and Rubby de la Rosa are tied for the most starts with nine.

 

[nvalvo]

Workman and RDLR will, however, be on track for a significant number of innings. Both have pitched more than 100 already this season between the IL and AL, and the team will be able to get them comfortably to 150-160, on track for 180-190 next year.
 
That goes a long way towards the 950-ish innings you want from your rotation. 

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

We didn't just trade 3 pitchers, we traded the 3 pitchers that took the ball every 5 days and didn't get injured. So for the last 2 years, we've had 7-8 starters getting the job done, that counting on the durability of Lester/Lackey/Peavy. We may need 10 quality arms to get through 162 starts next year. 
 
But realistically, who are the 8 guys that are going to be making the majority of the starts next year?  
 
Games Started: 2013
 
Lester 32
Lackey 29
Felix 29
Dempster 27
Clay 16
Peavy 10
Webster 7
Aceves 6
 
Games Started: 2014
 
Lester 21
Lackey 21
Peavy 20
Clay 17
Felix 10
Workman 9
Rubby 9
+ 20 from Kelly/Ranuado/Webster going forward.

 

[Jaylach]

The FO is hard at work trying to solve the starting pitching problem -
 
http://boston.craigslist.org/gbs/tlg/4596270865.html

 

[Corsi]

 

Brendan McGair ‏@BWMcGair03  1m
Ranaudo said he found out that he would make his #RedSox debut via a phone call from Ben Crockett. #RedSox
 

 

[nattysez]

FWIW, Edes spent the day running around to every media outlet insisting that there was no way the Sox were going to try to re-sign Lester.  He was very definitive about it.
 
Then he just tweeted this:
 

I'm having a tough time believing this, but I'm told Red Sox plan to make huge effort to re-sign Lester
 

 

[Stitch01]

170 million gets it done. I don't think they beat nyy or lad

 

[Rasputin]

If the Sox actually do make a huge effort to re-sign Lester, and by huge effort, I mean sign the motherfucker for a market value contract then this is going to go down in history as the greatest deadline day in Red Sox history.

 

[foulkehampshire]

170 million gets it done. I don't think they beat nyy or lad

 
Maybe they don't need to. Lester likes Boston.
 
Just not enough for 4/70.

 

[JimD]

170 million gets it done. I don't think they beat nyy or lad

 
I don't think they need to beat NYY and LAD dollar for dollar.  If they are in the ballpark, Jon will come home.

 

[soxhop411]

If the Sox actually do make a huge effort to re-sign Lester, and by huge effort, I mean sign the motherfucker for a market value contract then this is going to go down in history as the greatest deadline day in Red Sox history.

 
 
I think something gets done

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

With today's deals, Cots has the Sox at $95 million next year.  With benefits and arb eligible players, and money for draft players, figure $115 million.  That leaves them $75 million to spend to stay under the cap, and virtually no commitments in future years.  Their current commitments for 2016 consist entirely of Dustin Pedrioa and Allen Craig -- around $25 million.  I don't know where that puts the team in terms of 2015 commitments, but I bet it's pretty darned close to the bottom of the league except for the As (who I think have only Coco signed beyond next year). 

 

[strek1]

Hypothetical question:    If Angst Von Bucholz gets hit by a Boston "T" and killed do we get a compensation pick for him?

 

[Stitch01]

 
I don't think they need to beat NYY and LAD dollar for dollar.  If they are in the ballpark, Jon will come home.

I think the hometown discount ia gone and they might lose all else equal

 

[Plympton91]

 
Matt Latos would be an incredible player to target. Still young too, would be a guy you'd want to extend. Been a workhorse until this year.

 
 
I agree; that's finally an answer to the question many of have been posing about how you get a legitimate top of the rotation starter (given that the Red Sox likely don't have one despite having now 10 very good middle-rotation prospects) without paying for Lester or someone similar.   They could easily build a package of 3 or 4 prospects at various levels that makes sense for both teams.

 

[chrisfont9]

Does Owens come up for a start or two? Obviously they will try not to rush him, but while they're in full experiment/experience mode, I don't see why it would hurt for him to have an early peek at the show.

 

[Saints Rest]

It'll take at least 3 plus a vesting option, but he's not getting 6 years. Going 5 would be getting crazy. I'm guessing he signs for 4 years guaranteed at an AAV of 18-20 million.

SOunds like 4/$70 to me!

 

[86spike]

FWIW, Edes spent the day running around to every media outlet insisting that there was no way the Sox were going to try to re-sign Lester.  He was very definitive about it.
 
Then he just tweeted [URL="https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/494942908261613568

https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/494942908261613568"]this

link to tweet[/url]:
 

Clearly Team Ben was feeding the "he'll never sign back in BOS" line to Edes so that potential trade partners felt better about their chances at keeping him longer than 2 mos. No need to broadcast the Sox' intention of trying to bring him back until after a trade. Nice judo, Ben.

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
Then he just tweeted this:
I'm having a tough time believing this, but I'm told Red Sox plan to make huge effort to re-sign Lester

 
 
Doesn't pass the smell test:
 
1) This is exactly the PR spin one would want to try and mollify the unhappy portion of the fanbase.
2) Why wasn't a deal reached over the break (or earlier)?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If the Sox actually do make a huge effort to re-sign Lester, and by huge effort, I mean sign the motherfucker for a market value contract then this is going to go down in history as the greatest deadline day in Red Sox history.

 
While I agree that the Sox will be better if they can resign Lester after all of this, if they end up signing Lester for 6/$175 or something like that, it will really make me wonder what kind of analysis the Sox are doing up in their brain trust. 

 

[soxhop411]

 
 
Doesn't pass the smell test:
 
1) This is exactly the PR spin one would want to try and mollify the unhappy portion of the fanbase.
2) Why wasn't a deal reached over the break (or earlier)?

They know this season is done, so they wanted to get something out of it..... 

 

[Sprowl]

I think the hometown discount ia gone and they might lose all else equal

 
Once they go west, it's hard to go back.

On the other hand, the o.co Coliseum is a penitentiary of a ballpark, and the ballclub is cheap as hell. There'll be no market offer coming from Oakland.
 

Does Owens come up for a start or two? Obviously they will try not to rush him, but while they're in full experiment/experience mode, I don't see why it would hurt for him to have an early peek at the show.

I'd keep Owens on hold until September callups

In the meantime, the rotation looks like

Buchholz
de la Rosa
Workman 
Ranaudo
Wright
... 
Profit (via temporary payroll reduction)

 

[soxfan121]

With today's deals, Cots has the Sox at $95 million next year.  With benefits and arb eligible players, and money for draft players, figure $115 million.  That leaves them $75 million to spend to stay under the cap, and virtually no commitments in future years.  Their current commitments for 2016 consist entirely of Dustin Pedrioa and Allen Craig -- around $25 million.  I don't know where that puts the team in terms of 2015 commitments, but I bet it's pretty darned close to the bottom of the league except for the As (who I think have only Coco signed beyond next year). 

 
Lester and Scherzer for $50M/season combined. Can you smell what Ben's cookin'?

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

 
I'd keep Owens on hold until September callups

 

I don't think we're seeing Owens this year.  He hasn't so much as tried his off-speed stuff out on AAA hitters yet, and he's been putting guys on base quite a bit this month in Portland.

 

[ivanvamp]

I think Owens and even maybe Johnson get a start or two in September.  I think from this point on the majority of the starts go to Buchholz, Workman, Ranaudo, RDLR, and Webster.  Wright may get a few games, and, as I said, Owens and even Johnson.
 
This offseason, there's no way they don't go get a front line starting pitcher, either through free agency (Lester, Scherzer, Shields) or trade (Latos, Hamels, Lee).  Plus probably a second-level guy like Masterson.  Then roll with those two plus the best, most MLB-ready guy from among the crew that finishes this season.
 
EDIT:  Thanks Harry Hooper, for reminding me that they got Joe Kelly.  No doubt he starts for them the rest of the way.