Red Sox starting pitching going forward

[Brianish]

Audition of the week, perhaps?

 

[Auger34]

I don't think the intent was to not sign Lester, I think the intent was to work out an extension before the season started, but they let Lucchino be the point man and his whole "contested living" approach resulted in spoiling talks before they ever really got going with a 4/$70M.  At that point Lester made it clear he wasn't negotiating during the season unless they came 95% of the way to a market value deal, so Henry and Cherington wisely concluded that if they were going to pay market value it was better to keep their options open and make sure Lester didn't blow his elbow/shoulder apart, regress to 2012 Lester, etc. before doing so.  Turns out Lester was a horse while the rest of the team cratered, and a very interesting trade possibility emerged, worth taking on some extra risk with resigning Lester.
 
Once they had already gone down the road of paying at or close to full market value there was no point giving the deal early, and in the end it has paid off pretty well.  It'll pay off even more if they get Cespedes to a nice team friendly deal this winter, something like 3/$45M or so.

 
What do you mean by "contested living" approach? I agree with just about everything else in this post but not quite sure what that means

 

[BornToRun]

The more I think about it, the more I really want us to get Mat Latos. He's still young, he'll turn 27 in December, and he's got a proven track record of being a top of the rotation level starter.

We have an abundance of minor league talent so we can afford to swing a deal for him and leave our farm in good shape. He's also only under contract for 2015 before hitting free agency so I'd also imagine that that would help mitigate the cost somewhat.

My dream offseason would be to re-sign Lester, deal for Latos, and sign Mat to an extension before he hits FA. That way we have our proven horse in Lester and Latos locked up through his prime years slotted at the top of the rotation going forward.

If the Reds really do make Latos available, I hope Cherington makes a serious try at acquiring him.

 

[NDame616]

If my pre coffee math is correct, RDLR pitched 91 innings last year. This season he's at 114. That's already a 20% jump. I don't know how many more games he has until he's shut down for the year. One, maybe two more. So, I wouldn't count him in the rotation much longer.

 

[Drek717]

 
What do you mean by "contested living" approach? I agree with just about everything else in this post but not quite sure what that means

Lucchino is the protege of Edward Bennet Williams, a renowned trial lawyer who embraced the view that a professional interaction is a contest to be won.  Lester's willingness for a hometown discount only moved the bar for what Lucchino considered "winning" further away from market value, it didn't make the likelihood of striking a deal increase.  If Lester had suggested before negotiations that he'd take 5 years at $50M Lucchino would have offered 4 at $32M.
 
That is where you get 4/$70M and no follow up offers from.  Lets say the FO really thought 5/$90M was a realistic opening number, and Lester's group had planned their opening offer to be 6/$120M.  When they met in the middle you'd probably have wound up with something like what Homer Bailey got, 6/$105M, which a rumor suggests Lester would have taken.  The opening offer of 4/$70M was basically a play to win the 5 years versus 6  years argument with the opening figure, while simultaneously wanting to make Lester's side give the first realistic AAV.  It was the FO's job to give the opening number but they didn't want to surrender any leverage at all so they gave a number they knew would be unacceptable, expecting Levinson to bid against himself with a realistic counter they could hack away at.
 
Now the calculus completely changes.  Levinson will likely start off with a 7/$168M opening demand, which no one will meet, but everyone truly interested will need to come in at 6 years or not even be in the discussion.  Then the negotiations are all about which team will blink and move the AAV up to $25M for a 6/$150M deal.
 
Of course, that is why I'd argue the smart move for the Red Sox would be to not even ask for Lester's/Levinson's number to open this off-season and instead put a 7 year, $147M on the table right out of the gate.  There is a reasonable chance Lester just accepts it since it puts him back in Boston for the rest of his career, more years than anyone else, and an AAV still north of $20M.  Worst case I'd expect an extra $1M year, moving the deal to 7/$154M would get it done within the first few hours of FA before anyone else really gets involved.  If they get cute and try to negotiate for a 5 year deal they'll be out of the bidding before he makes his first visit elsewhere.
 
Pro athlete contracts are all about how dollars and years translate to respect.  The Sox need to show him that he's still a highly valued part of the organization.  They can do that by winning the AAV bidding war, or they can do what Lester said he originally wanted, the security to know he would retire with the Sox.  If they act quickly they could likely get a greatly reduced AAV in exchange for more years.  Given that the 7th year will likely end up costing very little extra money, it's basically betting on 37 year old Lester to be worth more than $4-$10M (depending if he'd otherwise have gotten 6/$144M or 6/$150M)
 
Also, Lester has had one hell of a career to date.  He isn't going to want to hang 'em up any time soon.  I'm sure he sees 2014 as the turning point for his career and expects to pitch this well for at least the next several years before slowly declining to a #2/#3 in his late 30's, and in so doing build a legitimate Hall of Fame resume.  A guaranteed 7th year has value on the back end of his career.  It will likely put him well within the 200 win range giving him the most in Red Sox history.  He would probably move past Wake for #2 all time in Ks within 4-5 years and have an outside shot at passing Clemens by the end of his career for #1.  Assuming he continues to be a 200 IP per season guy he'd also pass Clemens for #2 in career innings pitched for the Sox, and have an outside shot at #1 passing Wake.
 
Basically, that 7th year is telling Lester that if he stays healthy and continues to pitch at least up to a #2/#3 starter level throughout he has the chance to retire as the all time greatest statistical pitcher in Red Sox history with at least two rings where he was a significant part of the post-season push.  He'll easily walk into the Sox Hall of Fame and have every sports writer in New England beating the drum for him going into Cooperstown.  A 7th year offers Lester the chance at a legacy he can't find anywhere else.

 

[Drek717]

The more I think about it, the more I really want us to get Mat Latos. He's still young, he'll turn 27 in December, and he's got a proven track record of being a top of the rotation level starter.

We have an abundance of minor league talent so we can afford to swing a deal for him and leave our farm in good shape. He's also only under contract for 2015 before hitting free agency so I'd also imagine that that would help mitigate the cost somewhat.

My dream offseason would be to re-sign Lester, deal for Latos, and sign Mat to an extension before he hits FA. That way we have our proven horse in Lester and Latos locked up through his prime years slotted at the top of the rotation going forward.

If the Reds really do make Latos available, I hope Cherington makes a serious try at acquiring him.

The only problem with trading for Latos is what the Reds needs are versus the Sox' mL talent.  They need middle infielders and probably want to add more starting pitching in moving Latos as losing both he and Cueto in the span of 12 months will leave their staff pretty weak.  So would they take two starters for him or will they insist on getting a position player?  
 
I think they'd dig in their heels on getting Marrero or Betts as part of the package and given Betts' performance the last two  years and the uncertainty about Bogaerts sticking at SS I'm not sure if I'd be ok with moving either of them for one year of Latos and first crack at paying him $20M when there are FA pitching options available for no prospects and less money than he'd get in an extension (though obviously not as good).
 
It could be a really good fit for Coyle though, assuming the Reds value him highly based on his play this season.  Workman + Coyle would be an interesting offer, followed by offering Latos a 5/$85M deal replacing his $10.5M this year

 

[soxhop411]

Pedroia chimes in on Lester....
 
Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe  40m
Asked Pedroia about Lester, a long-time teammate, being traded. “Think we could be teammates again,” he said. “Wouldn't be surprised."
 
https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/495638963021811712
 
 
So I think the players know something?
 
Joe McDonald ‏@ESPNJoeyMac  56m
A few Red Sox players this morning said they're convinced Jon Lester will re-sign with Boston in the offseason.
 
 
https://twitter.com/ESPNJoeyMac/status/495636022588637184

 

[BornToRun]

Seems like the idea of a handshake agreement being made prior to the trade doesn't come off as too far fetched now. I'm getting to the point where I'm seriously expecting him back for 2015.

 

[soxhop411]

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal · 21m


One #RedSox person said that club president Larry Lucchino only acts when back is to wall. That person still confident Lester will return.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/495680212970262528
 

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal · 21m


My opinion is if #RedSox wanted to sign Lester, they would have done it already. Some with team, however, say Sox just operate differently.
 
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/495680395128897536

 
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal
 
 
So I think Lester and the Sox have some sort of agreement on what it will take in the offseason

 

[JMDurron]

The key question becomes just how willing the Red Sox are to adjust their offer to him based on what he finds out on the market.  
 
If Jon Lester helps to pitch the Oakland A's deep into the postseason, coming on the heels of his 2013 postseason performance and 2014 regular season performance to date, he's going to get some absolutely insane offers that the Red Sox will never agree to match.  
 
The best case scenario is that Lester is taking the "Smarter Version of Jason Varitek" approach, where he wants to get the most money possible for his next contract in Boston.  There are two ways to help do that.
 
1) Hit free agency, and use bids from other teams to place upward pressure on Boston's offer
2) Hit free agency without draft compensation attached, removing a potentially mild deflationary factor from those other bids that you want to use to pressure Boston
 
The rest of the league can't be blind and deaf regarding this possibility, so I wonder how this chatter might impact his market.  A team like the Yankees could err on the side of making him a completely insane (even for them) offer, knowing that it's probably only driving up the price for the Red Sox (potentially), with an outside chance of getting him to sign.  

 

[E5 Yaz]

With Lester, John Lackey and Jake Peavey all gone via trade, Buchholz is the senior member of Boston’s pitching staff. He realizes this is an opportunity for him to step up.

"We had a chance to have a brief conversation about that yesterday,” Farrell said. “That is not to say that Clay is going to come in looking different, acting different, or taking a completely different approach. He benefited by being around those veteran pitchers previously -- the guys we talked about the past few days. He now has more experience in this ballpark and this division than any other. He should look upon himself as a resource for others to gain from the things he’s experienced in between the lines.”

 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/39480/rapid-reaction-yankees-6-red-sox-4-2?ex_cid=espnapi_public
 
Clay Buchholz ... Yoda

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/39480/rapid-reaction-yankees-6-red-sox-4-2?ex_cid=espnapi_public
 
Clay Buchholz ... Yoda

To pour water over your filthy hair every inning, the key is.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Often throw over to first, must batter first walk

 

[tomdeplonty]

Work rrreeeeeeaaaaaallllllllll ssssssllllllllooooooowwwwwwwww, you must.

 

[Rasputin]

Well this took a disturbing turn in a hurry.

 

[Drek717]

 
Holy prospect humping, Batman. 
 
There is no earthly way Workman + Coyle even gets a return phone call, let alone grab the interest of CIN. 
 
If CIN wants Marrero plus any pitcher other than Owens, you do it in a Manziel heartbeat, because he should cost more than an all glove SS and a solid SP prospect. 

In a world where 1.5  years of David Price gets Smyly and Franklin I don't see how 1 year of Latos is worth some kind of massive haul.  Teams value years of control now more than ever.  Why would a club give a fortune in prospects for one year of Latos when they could sign Floyd, Masterson, etc. on the FA market for just money instead?  Latos is better but he isn't worth a gutting a farm system for the right to pay him ~$10M+ for one year before he goes to FA.
 
What I suggested would depend on the Reds having a pretty high grade on Coyle based on this past season, sure, but then most teams probably should after this season of him blowing up AA.  Compare it to the Price trade.  
 
Smyly peaked as the #82 prospect by MLB.com and never cracked BA's top 100.  Workman never did either.  Both are 25.  Smyly has pitched to a 4.08 FIP with a 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9.  Workman has pitched to a 4.48 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, and 6.8 K/9.  Both pitched to better rate stats in 2013 working primarily as relievers, Smyly with a 2.31 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, and 9.6 K/9.  Workman was 3.43 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, and 10.2 K/9.  Is Smyly better?  Sure.  Clearly a better reliever, but Workman actually had his best innings in 2013 as a starter when in 3 starts he had a 2.45 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 1.96 BB/9, and 8.84 K/9.  He also was a big playoff bullpen performer in 2013.
 
Then we have Franklin and Coyle.  Franklin made a lot of lists following the 2010 season when a strong A ball season at 19 put him on the map as a potential fast riser and he made both BA's and BP's top 100 (53 and 44 respectively).  His numbers regressed a bit at A+ in 2011, although with a strong performance in a late call-up to AA.  Still, he dropped from the top 100 on both BA and BP, only making it on MLB.com's list.  A strong 2012 at AA and a respectable showing at AAA got him back on the lists, 79 with BA's 2013 list and 72 with BP's.  Franklin can play a little SS but is most likely a 2B, that is where his mL PT has trended the last two years and where the majority of his ML action has been.  Meanwhile Coyle is a 2B with the ability to play 3B and is in the middle of a AA season that eclipses Franklin's 2012 that put him back on the top 100 lists.  Coyle will likely jump into the bottom 50 of most lists for next year if he can rebound from his July slump.
 
Is it 1:1 value compared to what Price got?  Nope, not arguing that.  But it is a comparable pairing with a reasonable downgrade expected for the fact that Latos is 1. not a deadline pickup with 2-3 months of extra service in the middle of a WS push and 2. not as good as David Price.  If that was the best young talent the market had to offer for Price during what everyone thought was a seller's deadline and Andrew Friedman, the guy who got Myers and Odorizzi for Shields, thought it was the best deal he'd get on Price over the next 18 or so months that is pretty telling as to how the league values prospects at this time.
 
Also, Marrero hit very well at AA this season and has been ok for someone getting a mid-season AAA call-up for the first time.  There is a very real chance he's more than just an all glove SS in about a year or so of further development.

 

[TheoShmeo]

I posted this in the Owens thread and yes, please consider the source (Cafardo).  But dare to dream a little.
 

 
9. Henry Owens, LHP, Pawtucket — With the Red Sox’ top pitching prospect now in Triple A and primed to get two months’ worth of starts, if he pitches well Owens could be in competition for a starting role on the major league team next season. Said one major league scout who watched many of Owens’s starts, “There’s no reason to hold him back or not rush him. If he has success at Triple A, he’s going to make an impact at the major league level. Like any young pitcher, you have to be patient. But he has a great feel for pitching.”
 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/02/following-trade-deadline-contenders-still-have-shot-improve-through-waiver-deals/VDZ3m3tYtPzRH9KwKZagRP/story.html?p1=Article_InThisSection_Bottom
 
OK, maybe a pipe dream.  What's more likely, Lester back in Boston or Owens in the rotation at some point next season?

 

[Drek717]

I posted this in the Owens thread and yes, please consider the source (Cafardo).  But dare to dream a little.
 
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/02/following-trade-deadline-contenders-still-have-shot-improve-through-waiver-deals/VDZ3m3tYtPzRH9KwKZagRP/story.html?p1=Article_InThisSection_Bottom
 
OK, maybe a pipe dream.  What's more likely, Lester back in Boston or Owens in the rotation at some point next season?

I'd say the chances of Owens not being in the rotation at some point next season is incredibly close to zero barring catastrophic injury.  I've felt the FO over the last few years has been a little slow to promote from AA to AAA while being a little fast to promote from AAA to MLB (likely because of the AAA logjam they've been working with).  Unless Buchholz bounces back well for 2015, the Sox sign the right two FA starters, and two of the older SP prospects are pitching lights out baseball, all sans-injuries, there is no way Owens isn't their first option from AAA once we get to about mid/late June 2015.
 
It really is pretty crazy how far Owens has come in the last year though.  Opening the 2013 season the assessment of him was nasty change up, soft fastball, poor command, likely a mid-rotation guy at best.  Now people are talking about how he has a great feel for pitching and is ready to advance at an accelerated pace.  Of course that's what happens when you drop your BB/9 by a whole walk per when getting a sustained crack at AA.  His K/9 dropped with it but is still well over 9 per 9.  Seeing him face AAA competition is going to be a very interesting test for him through the rest of this season.
 
The odds I'm really interested in are those for seeing both Lester and Owens pitching in the same rotation for 2015.  I think having a fellow lefty who doesn't rely on an overpowering fastball  himself as the elder statesman would do Owens a world of good when he first gets called up.

 

[LostinNJ]

Maybe the way to get Lester is to offer huge money but not a lot of years. There seems to be a consensus that he will get 6/150, and also that the Red Sox will never commit to such a long contract. So why not offer something like 3/90? Would he take that?

 

[Toe Nash]

Maybe the way to get Lester is to offer huge money but not a lot of years. There seems to be a consensus that he will get 6/150, and also that the Red Sox will never commit to such a long contract. So why not offer something like 3/90? Would he take that?

Not if he can get $60m more guaranteed (or even $5/120) from another team. Yeah he could probably get that in his next contract but not if he gets hurt. That would be a $30-$60m gamble that he would remain healthy through the first three years and you'd think he'd be signed if he was willing to leave that much on the table.

 

[NDame616]

Maybe the way to get Lester is to offer huge money but not a lot of years. There seems to be a consensus that he will get 6/150, and also that the Red Sox will never commit to such a long contract. So why not offer something like 3/90? Would he take that?

 
No way in hell. Why would he only take a 3 year deal when he can probably lock in 6 or 7 years? If he was 26, he'd maybe take 3/90 so he could get back on the market going into his 29/30 year old season. 
 
 
What possible benefit would he have for taking a 3 year deal over a 6 or 7 year deal?

 

[benhogan]

In a world where 1.5  years of David Price gets Smyly and Franklin I don't see how 1 year of Latos is worth some kind of massive haul.  Teams value years of control now more than ever.  Why would a club give a fortune in prospects for one year of Latos when they could sign Floyd, Masterson, etc. on the FA market for just money instead?  Latos is better but he isn't worth a gutting a farm system for the right to pay him ~$10M+ for one year before he goes to FA.
 
What I suggested would depend on the Reds having a pretty high grade on Coyle based on this past season, sure, but then most teams probably should after this season of him blowing up AA.  Compare it to the Price trade.  
 
Smyly peaked as the #82 prospect by MLB.com and never cracked BA's top 100.  Workman never did either.  Both are 25.  Smyly has pitched to a 4.08 FIP with a 1.34 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9.  Workman has pitched to a 4.48 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, and 6.8 K/9.  Both pitched to better rate stats in 2013 working primarily as relievers, Smyly with a 2.31 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, and 9.6 K/9.  Workman was 3.43 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, and 10.2 K/9.  Is Smyly better?  Sure.  Clearly a better reliever, but Workman actually had his best innings in 2013 as a starter when in 3 starts he had a 2.45 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 1.96 BB/9, and 8.84 K/9.  He also was a big playoff bullpen performer in 2013.
 
Then we have Franklin and Coyle.  Franklin made a lot of lists following the 2010 season when a strong A ball season at 19 put him on the map as a potential fast riser and he made both BA's and BP's top 100 (53 and 44 respectively).  His numbers regressed a bit at A+ in 2011, although with a strong performance in a late call-up to AA.  Still, he dropped from the top 100 on both BA and BP, only making it on MLB.com's list.  A strong 2012 at AA and a respectable showing at AAA got him back on the lists, 79 with BA's 2013 list and 72 with BP's.  Franklin can play a little SS but is most likely a 2B, that is where his mL PT has trended the last two years and where the majority of his ML action has been.  Meanwhile Coyle is a 2B with the ability to play 3B and is in the middle of a AA season that eclipses Franklin's 2012 that put him back on the top 100 lists.  Coyle will likely jump into the bottom 50 of most lists for next year if he can rebound from his July slump.
 
Is it 1:1 value compared to what Price got?  Nope, not arguing that.  But it is a comparable pairing with a reasonable downgrade expected for the fact that Latos is 1. not a deadline pickup with 2-3 months of extra service in the middle of a WS push and 2. not as good as David Price.  If that was the best young talent the market had to offer for Price during what everyone thought was a seller's deadline and Andrew Friedman, the guy who got Myers and Odorizzi for Shields, thought it was the best deal he'd get on Price over the next 18 or so months that is pretty telling as to how the league values prospects at this time.
 
Also, Marrero hit very well at AA this season and has been ok for someone getting a mid-season AAA call-up for the first time.  There is a very real chance he's more than just an all glove SS in about a year or so of further development.

nice work.  Your posts are some of the best, most thought out on this site, without a hint of mean.  thanks

 

[Puffy]

 
No way in hell. Why would he only take a 3 year deal when he can probably lock in 6 or 7 years? If he was 26, he'd maybe take 3/90 so he could get back on the market going into his 29/30 year old season. 
 
 
What possible benefit would he have for taking a 3 year deal over a 6 or 7 year deal?

 
Besides, I'm not even sure the Red Sox would offer 3/90. I doubt both sides would be in on a deal like that.

 

[seantoo]

Signing Lester and Shields makes a ton of sense to me. Shields can probably be had for a four year deal. For 2015 you're going with Lester, Shields, Buchholz, and two of the kids. For 2016, you buy out Buchholz option and go with Lester, Shields, and three of the kids. 

That idea makes a lot of sense. The Sox offense looks like it should bounce back with the additions of Craig and Cespedes and assuming one more good year out of Ortiz. Hopefully Pedrioa can bounce back to even 2012, 2013 levels. Bogaerts, Bradley & MIddlebrooks and any other of the kiddie corps begins to grow offensively. Now Cespedes in only on board though 2015 (for now anyway) and the AL East is not the powerhouse of a few years ago so the division could be had with the 2 additions Rasputin list.
Next year I think should be the last year Buccholz proves he's worth keeping around. If he can give us somewhere between his 2 healthiest seasons, 2010-174 IP with a 2.33 ERA and 2012-189 IP with a 4.56 ERA I'd be pleasantly surprised. If he can do that you'd have to think about trading him during the next off-season when his value will have rebounded from the low point it is at now. 
My guess for next season is that De La Rosa and Ranaudo are part of the starting rotation along with Buchholz and 2 free agent signings. By 2016 Owens should be ready to slide into the rotation.

 

[LostinNJ]

 
No way in hell. Why would he only take a 3 year deal when he can probably lock in 6 or 7 years? If he was 26, he'd maybe take 3/90 so he could get back on the market going into his 29/30 year old season. 
 
 
What possible benefit would he have for taking a 3 year deal over a 6 or 7 year deal?

We know he wants to play in Boston, so this plan allows him to do that. We know he wants market value; this plan gives him more than that. Assuming he doesn't get hurt (and what athlete assumes he will get hurt?), and assuming he continues to pitch well (and what athlete assumes he won't continue to perform well?), he can come out of this contract at 33 years old and get one more big contract. And who knows? -- by that time revenue may have increased yet again and he can get the next three years at more than 30 million per.
 
Maybe the way to do it is to follow the A-Rod/Sabathia route and put an opt-out into the contract. But that seems to be a messy path to follow.

 

[LostinNJ]

 
Besides, I'm not even sure the Red Sox would offer 3/90. I doubt both sides would be in on a deal like that.

I don't see the logic here. If it's a bad gamble for Lester, doesn't that mean it has to be a good gamble for the team? How can it be a bad gamble for both?

 

[redsox3g2]

I don't see the logic here. If it's a bad gamble for Lester, doesn't that mean it has to be a good gamble for the team? How can it be a bad gamble for both?

It Could Certainly Be Bad Value For The Red Sox But Still Less Value For Lester Than Is Available In The Market (Which Is Even Worse Value For The Club).

For Instance, Had The Angels Offered $5 Million Less Than The Red Sox For Crawford It Would Have Been A Loss For Him To Take It, But Also I Think Most Agree It Would Have Been Poor Value For The Angels.

(Apologies For All The Caps, Posting From My Phone Forces This For Some Reason)

 

[Puffy]

I don't see the logic here. If it's a bad gamble for Lester, doesn't that mean it has to be a good gamble for the team? How can it be a bad gamble for both?

 
I don't think a short term, high AAV fits in the Red Sox plans or budget (or typical MO for that matter), especially if the front office really thinks he's  worth about $20 million a year. I can't imagine John Henry overpaying by $10 million per year just to mitigate the long term risk. I think there's salary cap issues, value issues, and a time value of money issue for the Sox.
 
On Lester's side, if he can likely obtain $150 million or more on the open market, I think he's more likely to take the longer term and guaranteed money. 
 
The idea of massive overpays to shorten the deals comes up a lot around here, but there are reasons why we don't really see it in the real world very much.

 

[nvalvo]

 
 
The idea of massive overpays to shorten the deals comes up a lot around here, but there are reasons why we don't really see it in the real world very much.

 
The only times it really happens are on one-year deals, like the one Adrian Beltre took with Boston or (somewhat differently) the qualifying offer contracts. He didn't have any offers he liked coming out of his down years in Seattle, so he accepted a high-dollar one year deal (structured as a one and an option for reasons of CBT gaming) on a good offensive club in a good hitters park, performed well, and then got the long-term deal he wanted a year later.
 
The medium term deals are rare to the point of non-existence. (Can people think of any?) I suspect this is because the risk to the players is too great that they will lose too much value through injury or decline three years down the road for them to allow discounts on total dollars significant enough to attract the clubs. Three years is just too much of the prospective career of players with six years service time. 

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

In a world where 1.5  years of David Price gets Smyly and Franklin I don't see how 1 year of Latos is worth some kind of massive haul.  Teams value years of control now more than ever.  Why would a club give a fortune in prospects for one year of Latos when they could sign Floyd, Masterson, etc. on the FA market for just money instead?  Latos is better but he isn't worth a gutting a farm system for the right to pay him ~$10M+ for one year before he goes to FA.

Good post, although I think Price deal is both an outlier combined with the fact that Andrew Friedman must for some reason have a much higher value on Drew Smyly than most of the baseball world. I mean Samardzija (and Hamel) got the As best prospect.

Friedman would never have traded Price in the division, but it seems like a lot of clubs - including the Red Sox - could have made offers that would easily have surpassed what Rays got. People are giving Friedman the benefit of the doubt here, but it will really be interesting to see what Smyly's ceiling is.

 

[soxhop411]

Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe  9s
#RedSox have recalled RHP Steven Wright, who was supposed to start for Pawtucket today.
 
https://twitter.com/PeteAbe/status/496027043881320449

 

[Rasputin]

I have been following this team for going on thirty years and this is the most confused about the roster that I have ever been.
 
Is Wilson going down for Wright? Or Layne? Did Buchholz take a nap with his kid again?

 

[soxhop411]

I have been following this team for going on thirty years and this is the most confused about the roster that I have ever been.
 
Is Wilson going down for Wright? Or Layne? Did Buchholz take a nap with his kid again?

Alex Wilson optioned.

 

[Rasputin]

Alex Wilson optioned.

Gracias.
 
So Layne is going to stick around because lefty and the bullpen is going to be Uehara, Tazawa, Badenhop, Breslow, Layne, Mujica, and for the moment, at least, Wright, while the rotation is Buchholz, de la Rosa, Workman, Webster, and Kelly.
 
Right?
 
And Betts has taken Gomes' spot and he's gotta play so it looks like they're going to do a Bradley/Betts platoon in center with Betts also getting time against righties in a split with Cespedes, Craig, and Nava.
 
Nava's getting screwed here, isn't he?

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

Gracias.
 
So Layne is going to stick around because lefty and the bullpen is going to be Uehara, Tazawa, Badenhop, Breslow, Layne, Mujica, and for the moment, at least, Wright, while the rotation is Buchholz, de la Rosa, Workman, Webster, and Kelly.
 
Right?
 
And Betts has taken Gomes' spot and he's gotta play so it looks like they're going to do a Bradley/Betts platoon in center with Betts also getting time against righties in a split with Cespedes, Craig, and Nava.
 
Nava's getting screwed here, isn't he?

He's a known quantity, and he's not good enough that they need to create ABs for him when they have other players to evaluate and break in.

 

[soxhop411]

Sean McAdam ‏@Sean_McAdam  8s
Steven Wright optioned back to Pawtucket after the game. Red Sox will bring up another bullpen arm for Tuesday in STL.
 
https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/496148331740278785

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

So, Wright was up in case . . . Buchholz sucked and they needed a long guy?

 

[shepard50]

So, Wright was up in case . . . Buchholz sucked and they needed a long guy?

 
That's how I read it. The bullpen's been used a lot and it seems the FO  has the idea of giving the young guys a real shot (of showing their starting stuff, not long relieving.) So, yeah, looks like Wright was there for a Buchholz meltdown. Arguably that happened, but it was more of a sustained release kind of thing.

 

[Jaylach]

 

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal · 21m


One #RedSox person said that club president Larry Lucchino only acts when back is to wall. That person still confident Lester will return.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/495680212970262528
 

 
Am I the only one who read this as "The Lester trade was Ben backing Lucchino into a corner"?

 

[InsideTheParker]

 
Am I the only one who read this as "The Lester trade was Ben backing Lucchino into a corner"?

I read it as perhaps now that he sees his stunts backfired, he may realize he needs to make a more respectable offer.

 

[bankshot1]

IMO the biggest obstacles to resigning Lester are: can Henry give up the combination of his 60's roots and trading desk sensibilities, and abort his Abbie Hoffmanesque "don't trust anyone over 30 with a long-term contract". 
 
I think they assess the new rotation, and prospects in context of over-30 risk risk over the next 50 games, and go from there.  
 
We may have another bridge year next year.

 

[Harry Hooper]

 
Am I the only one who read this as "The Lester trade was Ben backing Lucchino into a corner"?

 
I read it as the Dentist making happy talk blather.

 

[Mike F]

I don't see the logic here. If it's a bad gamble for Lester, doesn't that mean it has to be a good gamble for the team? How can it be a bad gamble for both?

Not a bad gamble for both rather a bad result for
one side means a good result for the other.

 

[Hagios]

Lester is going to get better offers from teams that are much better than the Sox. That seems like the biggest obstacle to me.

 
I agree about the money. I suspect the Yankees are going to have another half billion offseason, maybe more. But Lester has won two championships with the Sox. I don't think that he's worried about whether or not another team is better, despite the current slump.

 

[twibnotes]

I read it as perhaps now that he sees his stunts backfired, he may realize he needs to make a more respectable offer.

Does anyone really think Lucchino alone informs these decisions?

If the Sox lowballed Lester, I'm willing to bet it was after a lot of internal discussion that included many views from within the FO and ownership group.

I also don't think it's been said enough that Lester's agents are guiding him to explore FA. Otherwise, one albeit lousy offer wouldn't have resulted in no discussion for the whole rest of the season.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
Sean McAdam ‏@Sean_McAdam  8s
Steven Wright optioned back to Pawtucket after the game. Red Sox will bring up another bullpen arm for Tuesday in STL.
 
https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/496148331740278785
 

 
I'm going to guess this will be Heath Hembree

 

[Plympton91]

Good post, although I think Price deal is both an outlier combined with the fact that Andrew Friedman must for some reason have a much higher value on Drew Smyly than most of the baseball world. I mean Samardzija (and Hamel) got the As best prospect.

Friedman would never have traded Price in the division, but it seems like a lot of clubs - including the Red Sox - could have made offers that would easily have surpassed what Rays got. People are giving Friedman the benefit of the doubt here, but it will really be interesting to see what Smyly's ceiling is.

People are under rating Nick Franklin too. And forgetting about the third guy who may be the key in Friedman's mind for all we know.

 

[Corsi]

Long shot, but Rosenthal is reporting that Hamels has been claimed on waivers by unidentified club.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Long shot, but Rosenthal is reporting that Hamels has been claimed on waivers by unidentified club.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/497131885831921664
 
Hamels can only be sent to 9 teams without his consent: Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Nationals, Cardinals, Braves, Rangers, Padres, and Yankees.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/497131885831921664
 
Hamels can only be sent to 9 teams without his consent: Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Nationals, Cardinals, Braves, Rangers, Padres, and Yankees.

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/497131885831921664
 
Hamels can only be sent to 9 teams without his consent: Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Nationals, Cardinals, Braves, Rangers, Padres, and Yankees.

A REAL long shot .. he'd have to make it through the National League first ..