Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

Bread of Yaz

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Mar 12, 2019
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Refsnyder was terrific last year but it was such a crazy statistical outlier, I'm not really sure we can count on him for much at all.

2016 - .637 ops, 73 ops+
2017 - .463 ops, 25 ops+
2018 - .588 ops, 66 ops+
2019 - nothing
2020 - .498 ops, 40 ops+
2021 - .663 ops, 63 ops+
2022 - .881 ops, 143 ops+

One of these things is not like the others. Like...not even remotely close.

Vs. LHP...

Career - .255/.356/.373/.728
2022 - .359/.411/.594/1.005

I mean, he's definitely okay against lefties, but nothing amazing. I just think it's foolish to consider him a really important piece.
He attributes the improvements to swing changes.

From a Failed Quest For More Power, Rob Refsnyder Has Evolved as a Hitter | FanGraphs Baseball
 

EvilEmpire

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That is a reasonable ask from San Diego.

If that report is true, I'm surprised we're hearing about a proposed deal instead of a completed deal.
 

BeantownIdaho

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The rules are gone, but the team-second attitude is what would be at issue.

If this in fact happens, they would never say anything to confirm it, because of course it would (rightly) get grieved by the union. But I bet Cora is pretty pissed off about it. I would have a lot of trouble trusting Houck in an important role after something like that.
Team second to what? His personal beliefs and convictions? Yeah so? Doesn't everybody have something that would come in front of team? I highly doubt that Cora would not trust him in an important role since those rules are long gone and have nothing to do with him being in an "important role" whatever you think that is.
 

Daniel_Son

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Nobody including Kim and Arroyo is likely to play 162 games, maybe not even close if one of those two (or anybody else which inevitably happens) gets hurt. Days off allow Hernandez to move to the infield and open up an OF spot, days off for Hernandez also open an OF spot. Days off for Devers put Turner at 3B and open up DH, etc. I think the plan at first is to sit Casas against LHP which opens a spot.
I really hope not. He needs to figure out how to hit lefties.
 

LogansDad

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Ugh, that doesn’t feel like a very good lineup. Kim feels like a guy who should be batting at the end of the order, but so do the guys already there. Can’t really bat Verdugo 2nd because then you’ve got three lefties in a row.

Is this rumor actually even legit, or just that guy spitballing again?
I would move Kim to 9th, Verdugo to 2nd (OBP's are similar, but I like that Verdugo's is more batting average driven for the 2 spot), and move Arroyo and McGuire up one spot each. If they really feel the need to avoid 3 LHB's in a row (likely) they can move Hernandez instead, or swap Turner and Devers.

I actually really like that lineup. Having a 9 hitter with a K rate below 20% and a good walk rate with speed isn't a bad thing.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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My assumption is anyone who can handle SS is a good bet to make the transition to the OF. That said, it would be a "we'll cross that bridge when we get there" situation. If/when they extend Kim, they'll have that much more information on Mayer and the rest of the roster and will make a decision accordingly.
Counter argument, Jarren Duran, although I believe he was a 2B initially.
 

nighthob

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Would Mayer have the skill set to shift to the outfield? The infield would be kind of crowded if we got Kim and he played well enough for us to invest long term with Devers, Story, and Casas already in the mix and I can’t imagine wanting to shift Raffy to DH so early into his deal. SoxProspects write up on Mayer tells me he might work as an outfielder but prospect evaluation isn’t something I‘m very proficient at. Obviously, I’m getting way ahead of myself because Kim still plays for the Padres right now but I figured it might merit discussion.
Kim's offense is kind of iffy. And defense heavy WAR SS seems like a poor long term investment. The point of building a pipeline is so that you don't have to resign those guys when someone else is offering them biggish deals.
 

JM3

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12 barrels in 732 pitches is certainly a large departure from Refsnyder's previous career #s... but his exit velocity is still average & he seems very susceptible to changeups, which teams might actually scout for if he ever plays more than 177 PAs in a season (career high last year).

It's fine to consider him a viable option considering that, but there's not exactly a long track record indicating that he needs to be anything close to an everyday player. He was also a bad outfielder last year (-5 DRS, -2 OAA).
 
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Sprowl

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I'm kind of torn by this rumor.
Houck is not one of my favorite Red Sox players and it was excruciating watch Bobby flail so badly last year.
I mostly only have seen Kim in last year's postseason, where he looked like a really smart, quick player. He's good defensively and seems like a good baserunner and would fill a big need.
On the other hand, I hate the idea of trading a young, cost-controlled pitcher with good stuff. I think if Houck was made a high leverage reliever, he would be a really good one.
I also think Dalbec has some value, but that Red Sox fans who are sick of watching Bobby flail so badly don't see it.
Overall, he hit well in 2020 and 2021 and should be able to play a decent 3B. If the Padres do this deal I assume they would use Dalbec as a part time DH and back corner IF this year, and if he does decently they could have a cheap third baseman the next year when Machado leaves.

I guess if we do this deal, I'm fine with it, as long as we aren't throwing in anything else of value. I can definitely see why SD would do it too. I would expect Houck to be good for them and cheap for a long time.
I am likewise torn. Houck has a very high ceiling because of his best-of-class slider, good velocity, and increasingly a splitter that looks (to my eye, at least) like a legitimate third pitch that will improve his results the second and third times through the order.

I've never seen Kim play, but the numbers point toward a low ceiling, mostly because of a noodle bat and the limited years of control.

Sometimes trading potential to cover an immediate need makes sense, and this might be such an occasion.

Still, I'd rather sign Iggy and keep Houck. 2023 is not a year to GFIN.
 

jbupstate

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Kim's offense is kind of iffy. And defense heavy WAR SS seems like a poor long term investment. The point of building a pipeline is so that you don't have to resign those guys when someone else is offering them biggish deals.
Mayer to the OF for Kim to play shortstop seems insane. Mayer has the makings of a plus offensive and defensive shortstop. Kim is a defensive shortstop that might hit okay.

Kim is the type of player you let go to free agency and try to resign for an amount you think is workable. The guy would be fine on the Sox this season but isn’t a game breaker.

What am I missing?
 

cornwalls@6

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I would do this deal, if the reported ask is true. I’m wary of letting cost controlled young pitching walk out the door like others are(Dalbec I won’t miss), and it’s very much predicated on Mayer being the real deal, and being ready by 2025. Because Kim’s offense isn’t really something I’d commit longer term resources to. But, a cost controlled , solid everyday SS for the next two years is worth those costs/risks IMO. And pushes them closer to being an interesting, competitive ball club this year. Do it Chaim.
 

chawson

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12 barrels in 732 PAs is certainly a large departure from Refsnyder's previous career #s... but his exit velocity is still average & he seems very susceptible to changeups, which teams might actually scout for if he ever plays more than 177 PAs in a season (career high last year).

It's fine to consider him a viable option considering that, but there's not exactly a long track record indicating that he needs to be anything close to an everyday player. He was also a bad rightfielder last year.
Typo in there, I think?

Yeah, I don’t think it’s enough to give him a starting job and I agree he doesn’t have much of a defensive position. I’m cautiously optimistic the gains last year are real though — they’re not “lucky” relative to his batted ball data, only his career numbers. But guys make changes! And it was widely reported that he did. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team wanted him to give him enough of a look this year to emerge as a legitimate OF/DH option in 2024.
 

JM3

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Typo in there, I think?

Yeah, I don’t think it’s enough to give him a starting job and I agree he doesn’t have much of a defensive position. I’m cautiously optimistic the gains last year are real though — they’re not “lucky” relative to his batted ball data, only his career numbers. But guys make changes! And it was widely reported that he did. I wouldn’t be surprised if the team wanted him to give him enough of a look this year to emerge as a legitimate OF/DH option in 2024.
Sorry, the 732 was pitches.
 

InsideTheParker

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I am likewise torn. Houck has a very high ceiling because of his best-of-class slider, good velocity, and increasingly a splitter that looks (to my eye, at least) like a legitimate third pitch that will improve his results the second and third times through the order.

I've never seen Kim play, but the numbers point toward a low ceiling, mostly because of a noodle bat and the limited years of control.

Sometimes trading potential to cover an immediate need makes sense, and this might be such an occasion.

Still, I'd rather sign Iggy and keep Houck. 2023 is not a year to GFIN.

I don't even like Houck, and still I agree with this, if Kim really has a "noodle bat." However, we haven't seen Iggy make throws from SS lately. He was really good at 2nd the last time we saw him, but I don't know if that translates to SS.
 

chawson

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Sorry, the 732 was pitches.
Ah that makes sense.

The lil data point I was looking at about Refsnyder is this, FWIW. % of Barrels+Quality Contact per Swing.

On a list of 435 MLB hitters (per Savant), Refsnyder is ranked 36th. The company is elite, and even at a fairly low 170 PAs, it seems like a hard list to luck your way into.
 

JM3

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Ah that makes sense.

The lil data point I was looking at about Refsnyder is this, FWIW. % of Barrels+Quality Contact per Swing.

On a list of 435 MLB hitters (per Savant), Refsnyder is ranked 36th. The company is elite, and even at a fairly low 170 PAs, it seems like a hard list to luck your way into.
Yeah - I'm not implying it's necessarily luck, but him being fairly bad consistently against changeups, including last year makes me concerned that he will start seeing more & more of them, which would lower his efficacy, even if the hitting uptick is both real & sustainable if the pitch mix stayed the same.
 

kazuneko

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I don't even like Houck, and still I agree with this, if Kim really has a "noodle bat." However, we haven't seen Iggy make throws from SS lately. He was really good at 2nd the last time we saw him, but I don't know if that translates to SS.
I honestly don’t see Kim as being worth the cost. This team is probably not going to be great, with or without Kim. We could use good, young arms and Houck has some upside. They should move forward with the current plan of starting Kike at SS and Duvall at CF - signing a lower cost INF like Josh Harrison to be ready when the inevitable injury to Arroyo happens. Let’s hope Story comes back sooner than expected and the team overachieves. If that happens they can make a trade at the deadline to help them compete..
 
Sep 12, 2022
188
This guy Kim though is a gold glover. Won multiple gold gloves in Korean league. I will even add Duran to the Houck and Dalbec rumor to sweeten the pot. In reality though is that the Padres would not do it. Kim is very popular in San Diego. This is just a rumor. I expect this will not happen.
 

grimshaw

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The thing with Houck is that the Sox don't have a locked in role for him and Kim would be an everyday player who fills a big need. They absolutely need to at least compete for a playoff spot and Kim would improve the team IMO.

It would be a different story if they needed Houck to start, but at best he is 7th on the depth chart right now which means he'd likely have trouble hitting 75 innings and it's difficult to make a huge impact unless those are high leverage innings.

Whether he could be a piece to get a better player is a different story.
 
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Sep 12, 2022
188
The thing with Houck is that the Sox don't have a locked in role for him and Kim would be an everyday player who fills a big need. They absolutely need to at least compete for a playoff spot and Kim would improve the team IMO.

It would be a different story if they needed Houck to start, but at best he is 7th on the depth chart right now which shows me he is someone they should move. Whether he could be a piece to get a better player is a different story.
I agree with your points, but there is no way the Padres trade Kim. Google Kim Ha -seong chants in youtube. This Kim is a major star there. Big Asian audience, plus he to them is the anti-Tatis. PADRES fans love Kim. I guess we will see.
 

grimshaw

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I agree with your points, but there is no way the Padres trade Kim. Google Kim Ha -seong chants in youtube. This Kim is a major star there. Big Asian audience, plus he to them is the anti-Tatis. PADRES fans love Kim. I guess we will see.
I am aware of the fans love for Kim, but it's not like the Padres are shooting any rumors down about his availability.
 

Apisith

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Houck would be better than Paxton if he gets starts. Not sure why we’re locking Paxton into one of the rotation spots when another pitcher is better. I’m not a fan of trading cost-controlled pitching.
 
Sep 12, 2022
188
Houck would be better than Paxton if he gets starts. Not sure why we’re locking Paxton into one of the rotation spots when another pitcher is better. I’m not a fan of trading cost-controlled pitching.
Kim's defense is better than Xander. As a Red Sox fan with me included I think we Red Sox fans overrate our players. 2018 was 5 years ago. I implore anyone to watch Kim videos on YouTube for his defense. That's why I don't think the Padres will do it. With that. Hello
IGGY come on down, as we miss you. Lol.
 
Sep 12, 2022
188
Houck would be better than Paxton if he gets starts. Not sure why we’re locking Paxton into one of the rotation spots when another pitcher is better. I’m not a fan of trading cost-controlled pitching.
I will always trade a starter who pitches every 5 days for a fielder/hitter who gives me 150 games.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I am aware of the fans love for Kim, but it's not like the Padres are shooting any rumors down about his availability.
To be fair to the Padres, I'm sure they have way better things to do with their time than scouring Twitter for anonymous unsourced "rumors" about their players, let alone being worried about shooting them down.

I will always trade a starter who pitches every 5 days for a fielder/hitter who gives me 150 games.
Always? Like, you'd have been good with the 2004 Sox trading Pedro to the Twins for Lew Ford (154 games, 114 OPS+ that year)? An extreme example for sure, but so is saying you would always trade a starting pitcher for a position player. There's nothing wrong with being hesitant to trade a Tanner Houck type pitcher for a Ha-Seong Kim type position player.
 
Sep 12, 2022
188
To be fair to the Padres, I'm sure they have way better things to do with their time than scouring Twitter for anonymous unsourced "rumors" about their players, let alone being worried about shooting them down.



Always? Like, you'd have been good with the 2004 Sox trading Pedro to the Twins for Lew Ford (154 games, 114 OPS+ that year)? An extreme example for sure, but so is saying you would always trade a starting pitcher for a position player. There's nothing wrong with being hesitant to trade a Tanner Houck type pitcher for a Ha-Seong Kim type position player.
Well ,Pedro is a different deal. One in a million. Thank you Dan Duquette for that. While we at it thank you Dan Duquette for Manny Ramirez. I remember Weei and fans yelling at the top of their lungs how stupid Dan Duquette was , but he got Red Sox Nation their best pitcher ever Pedro Martinez after Clemons, got them Manny Ramirez over MO Vaughn. Traded Slocum for Lowe and Varitek.
 

geoflin

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I agree with your points, but there is no way the Padres trade Kim. Google Kim Ha -seong chants in youtube. This Kim is a major star there. Big Asian audience, plus he to them is the anti-Tatis. PADRES fans love Kim. I guess we will see.
This board has spent a lot of bandwidth discussing how the fans' love for a player such as Betts or Bogaerts has nothing to do with whether the front office decides to keep, let walk, or trade a player. And we have further discussed whether the opinion of the fans should even matter to the front office's plan for the future.
Maybe SD won't trade Kim but it won't be due to fan sentiment.
 
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HangingW/ScottCooper

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Am I crazy in thinking that Walter could step in and fulfill a swing man type role in the same way Houck is otherwise expected to? Obviously he hasn't done it yet at the Major League level yet, but is it that far fetched?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Walter is a lefty, so it would be a completely different role. He was terrible in two AAA starts and then got hurt, so who knows. He’s also only a few months younger than Houck.
 

chawson

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I think Wyatt Mills has a decent chance of replicating what Houck (and Schreiber) have done, albeit in shorter stints. I figure they want to get him down in the lab for a bit, make whatever tweaks they did with Schreiber. But the repertoire is pretty similar.
 

Cassvt2023

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I am also torn whether they should do this proposed deal or just sign Harrison. Whoever said Houck doesn't really have much value in an earlier post is way off base. He has some of the best pure stuff on the staff and is cheap for several more years. Sale and Paxton are two projected starters, both lefties, both coming off injury, both still building up arm strength. I can envision Houck coming in following their starts in the 5-6 inning and pitching in very high leverage spots. If other teams are stacking their lineups with RH bats, having Houck follow either of them is super valuable IMO. In addition, I believe Dalbec put up 35 HR 95 RBI in 156 games spanning 2020-21. May be a bit too early to give up on him as a throw in in a trade.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I agree with your points, but there is no way the Padres trade Kim. Google Kim Ha -seong chants in youtube. This Kim is a major star there. Big Asian audience, plus he to them is the anti-Tatis. PADRES fans love Kim. I guess we will see.
This is a bit over the top. He's not a major star out here in San Diego. He's a fun player but one most fans wouldn't have a problem dealing if it were in the right trade.
 

Niastri

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Refsnyder was terrific last year but it was such a crazy statistical outlier, I'm not really sure we can count on him for much at all.

2016 - .637 ops, 73 ops+
2017 - .463 ops, 25 ops+
2018 - .588 ops, 66 ops+
2019 - nothing
2020 - .498 ops, 40 ops+
2021 - .663 ops, 63 ops+
2022 - .881 ops, 143 ops+

One of these things is not like the others. Like...not even remotely close.

Vs. LHP...

Career - .255/.356/.373/.728
2022 - .359/.411/.594/1.005

I mean, he's definitely okay against lefties, but nothing amazing. I just think it's foolish to consider him a really important piece.
I think some believe Refsnyder got lucky lady year too hit that well, but also that he's finally figured it out and might be a luck neutral 125 OPS+ guy going forward as long as we protect his platoon splits a bit.
 

chawson

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High upside, high risk if they go down this route - he is constantly injured.
Yeah, I don't think he'll be the only option but worth a shot to see if he can stay healthy and hit that upside. Last year under control so if he's useless or hurt you can just DFA or 60-day IL him.
 

brandonchristensen

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I’m a big Houck fan and don’t see us being a real threat this year or next so trading away someone with his stuff seems foolish. I would prefer to just continue the build for 2025+ and let the fans have the kids longer. I think Houck could continue to grow into an important piece.
 

Harry Hooper

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Perez was playing some winter ball last month per Pirates Winter Leagues report:

Roberto Perez played his first game since his May 7th season-ending injury. The free agent catcher is attempting to prove that he’s healthy before signing with any teams this off-season.

The Pirates have said they are interested in bringing Perez back, and they have a need for a starting catcher. Perez caught seven innings in his debut and he went 0-for-2 at the plate.



Also, Bleed Cubbie Blue was touting him as a possible value FA signing for the Cubs. The story includes the video of the hamstring injury.
 

JM3

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Would be kind of intriguing if the price is right. Was pretty elite in '19. Would be kind of weird to add Alfaro & then him unless they have a deal for Wong lined up or something, but not impossible.

It's an interesting thought regardless, though.

Career 101 wRC+ against lefties, 67 against righties, so good platoon guy.
 

HighTek

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Feels like it's like the 2002 and and 2013 off seasons. Only real difference in both instance ownership didn't give what it needed to keep current stars on the team. That's the only reason this off season slaps in a different way. How Chaim didn't get us on under the salary tax last year will always be his biggest failure as a leader of this team.

Now i sit here praying he gets some team to eat 3-5M on our DFAed RP
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Feels like it's like the 2002 and and 2013 off seasons. Only real difference in both instance ownership didn't give what it needed to keep current stars on the team. That's the only reason this off season slaps in a different way. How Chaim didn't get us on under the salary tax last year will always be his biggest failure as a leader of this team.

Now i sit here praying he gets some team to eat 3-5M on our DFAed RP
If you believe in the power of prayer, I think you should focus it on more important things than another baseball team absorbing some of Henry’s cash.
Bloom getting under the tax has been discussed a million times here on basically every thread.