Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

JM3

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Last off season, Baez was the SS who I was hoping would be left without a seat and the Sox would be able to scoop up as a plus defender who could play 2B and cover for X if he left... of course I was also hoping that the plate discipline he showed with the Mets would stick a bit more and unfortunately the Red Sox have gotten more aggressive and lost some of their trademark discipline, so I don't know that they'll be able to get a new approach to stick...

That said, he's durable and is at least decent defensively; if the Tigers are just looking to dump him and pick up a lot of the money so that it's mostly low risk then it makes a lot sense.
Yeah...kinda curious what the breakeven point on that contract is.

5/$120m left, & he can opt out after this year if he actually plays well. Still not really clear what the actual amount the Red Sox are under the threshold with every source saying something different...buuuuut if the Tigers paid enough to get them under the threshold? I wouldn't haaaaate it.
 

RicoPfan

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I don’t see the Tigers giving up on Baez one year into the deal, absent a great return. I would hate to see the Sox give any significant return. .
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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If this "big move" noise is more than static, I'm hoping Bloom is honing in on Adames. Doesn't totally fit, given that he's due for a new contract and the hope that Mayer ascends to SS soonish, but he's a player with a similar slash as Baez, but trending in the better direction being both offensively and defensively (nearly three years younger and whatnot).

Obviously, trading for either is going to have bigger implications. Adames would require more in players (but without years beyond 23, might curtail the cost?), but would also be a chip at the deadline if he's not extended. Baez will cost a ton of dollars and less prospects, and even with a great half season problem has no real attractiveness to buyers in August.

Both guys have the defensive rep (although Adames is, again, trending in a better way) and neither has great on-base prowess. I'd hope for Adames. But Baez bouncing back, not the craziest thing.

And all of this is really for nothing. Neither is happening in any likelihood.
 

E5 Yaz

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Oh, man! I'd say that this is the saddest sentence ever posted on SoSH, but it's in fact two sentences. In any event, it's a tough read. :(
It's particularly sad because Williams resigned with the Yankees on Nov. 25 and Mo signed with the Angels on Dec. 11 ... which means it was a really long game of Triple Play 98
 

HighTek

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What's Baez contract and how much would Det have to pay off his deal for us to take him in a trade?

Guessing the more the Sox give the more Det pays...
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Oh boy, another page of discussion of a trade that's not even a rumor, it's a figment of some blogger's imagination! The post in question is just the author making up ideas that could "shift the playoff picture." His second idea was the Marlins trading Pablo Lopez to the Padres for a SS prospect despite the reports being that they were looking for an MLB infielder (and got one in Arraez). No reason to take any of it seriously.
 

geoflin

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In addition, the article has the Red Sox adding Baez' $22M salary for this year and trading Barnes to Pittsburgh but continuing to pay his $8.4M salary. No way either of these things happen, and no way should the Red Sox be thinking of going over the luxury tax cap this year with a team that as of today doesn't look like a serious contender unless absolutely everything goes right which almost never happens.
 

OCD SS

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Yeah...kinda curious what the breakeven point on that contract is.

5/$120m left, & he can opt out after this year if he actually plays well. Still not really clear what the actual amount the Red Sox are under the threshold with every source saying something different...buuuuut if the Tigers paid enough to get them under the threshold? I wouldn't haaaaate it.
Agreeing that the Baez idea isn't a real rumor, but as far as options at SS go, how does he compare to picking up either Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias (as the other easily available options)?

Andrus is aging out of the game and last year looks like his dead cat bounce, and Boras is trying to turn that into a multi-year contract for a player who's only posted a WRC+ over 100 three times in his career (including last year's lotto jackpot) and who is probably mediocre at best as defensive SS now (comparing his UZR to DRS is a pretty wide gap). Iggy will cost less, but because he's worse (his feel good return to the Sox in 2021excepted), and he isn't really seen as a SS anymore, so I expect signing him is signing a 2Bman. If the goal is to keep Kike in CF, he doesn't help the roster that much.

If the Sox were to land a subsidized Baez without giving up real prospects they at least have a competent SS on the roster with the potential for offensive upside. If Baez plays well enough that he would even consider opting out, that has to be seen as a win for the team and if he actually opts out the Sox should be able to just put Story and his rebuilt elbow back at SS in 2024.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Agreeing that the Baez idea isn't a real rumor, but as far as options at SS go, how does he compare to picking up either Elvis Andrus or Jose Iglesias (as the other easily available options)?

Andrus is aging out of the game and last year looks like his dead cat bounce, and Boras is trying to turn that into a multi-year contract for a player who's only posted a WRC+ over 100 three times in his career (including last year's lotto jackpot) and who is probably mediocre at best as defensive SS now (comparing his UZR to DRS is a pretty wide gap). Iggy will cost less, but because he's worse (his feel good return to the Sox in 2021excepted), and he isn't really seen as a SS anymore, so I expect signing him is signing a 2Bman. If the goal is to keep Kike in CF, he doesn't help the roster that much.

If the Sox were to land a subsidized Baez without giving up real prospects they at least have a competent SS on the roster with the potential for offensive upside. If Baez plays well enough that he would even consider opting out, that has to be seen as a win for the team and if he actually opts out the Sox should be able to just put Story and his rebuilt elbow back at SS in 2024.
Baez would be the easy answer but it looks like a lot of what-ifs to make it work both short and long term, while Andrus will, despite Boras… end up being cheap. He is in a one-and-done land due to all you point out and his age of course.
Bloom, IMO, is playing the waiting game on him and will win. This isn’t Correa, but the opposite

edit- the possibility that Baez ends up on the Sox -playing as poorly as last seaso and costing what half the board believes Xander would have accepted if he was offered it last year (i personally don’t) and ends up not performing well….Picking up his opts-ins while X has a good 1st and 2nd year in San Diego would be horrible beyond the Betts situation
 
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Ahaan Rungta
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Per #RedSox CBO Chaim Bloom, the team is "close to a trade they hope to announce soon." Said this in response to a question from yours truly at Red Sox Winter Weekend.
Close to a tr
Oh boy, another page of discussion of a trade that's not even a rumor, it's a figment of some blogger's imagination! The post in question is just the author making up ideas that could "shift the playoff picture." His second idea was the Marlins trading Pablo Lopez to the Padres for a SS prospect despite the reports being that they were looking for an MLB infielder (and got one in Arraez). No reason to take any of it seriously.
Exactly. Just some dude making up a hypothetical trade. That like me going on my word press site and saying Dalbec and Duran for Ohtani.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Close to a tr

Exactly. Just some dude making up a hypothetical trade. That like me going on my word press site and saying Dalbec and Duran for Ohtani.
why would we trade 2 nickels for only 1 $100 bill? Angels should add more. LOL.

Some of these online sources/reporters are laughable
 

Cassvt2023

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I think if you listen closely to what Alex Cora said last night, and how he phrased it, Kiki is the primary shortstop this season. Any additions at this point seem to be someone who plays primarily 2B. He said Arroyo will play there "a lot" but he also addressed his injury history head on. I think its less likely to be Andrus now, and more likely someone like Harrison or possibly Profar or Iglesias.
 

geoflin

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I think if you listen closely to what Alex Cora said last night, and how he phrased it, Kiki is the primary shortstop this season. Any additions at this point seem to be someone who plays primarily 2B. He said Arroyo will play there "a lot" but he also addressed his injury history head on. I think its less likely to be Andrus now, and more likely someone like Harrison or possibly Profar or Iglesias.
Kiki is the primary shortstop as the roster is currently constructed. Changes to the roster after January 21 could change who is the primary player at any position. A month ago Cora would probably have said that Story is the primary shortstop. As stated previously, Cora is unable to discuss players under contract to other teams.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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I think if you listen closely to what Alex Cora said last night, and how he phrased it, Kiki is the primary shortstop this season. Any additions at this point seem to be someone who plays primarily 2B. He said Arroyo will play there "a lot" but he also addressed his injury history head on. I think its less likely to be Andrus now, and more likely someone like Harrison or possibly Profar or Iglesias.
I think the unspoken thing in everything Cora said is "for now". If they're going to add a middle infielder between now and Opening Day, I don't think they're going to rule out anyone because they're primarily a SS and Kike is currently penciled into that spot. All options should remain open regardless of how things shape up right now. If Andrus is agreeable to the most team-friendly offer, they'll sign him and move Kike to 2B (or back to CF).
 

jon abbey

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I feel like no exec would mention a yet-to-be-quite-finished actually substantial trade in that context, even vaguely.
 

curly2

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I feel like no exec would mention a yet-to-be-quite-finished actually substantial trade in that context, even vaguely.
You're right. Say a trade was close, with all that was holding it up was the trading partner requesting an additional minor-leaguer and the Sox offering a lesser prospect. After the other GM sees Bloom telling a hostile crowd that a trade was near, he could say, "Chaim, we're insisting (good prospect) is in the trade or there's no deal."
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I feel like no exec would mention a yet-to-be-quite-finished actually substantial trade in that context, even vaguely.
Agreed and particularly Bloom who has been running a fairly tight ship when it comes to information getting out to the media. Seems unlikely he'd admit to anything, especially if doing so might jeopardize the deal in some way. I would think simply the act of announcing it prematurely might give the other side leverage to extract more out of him to get it done (a better prospect in a trade, more money in a contract, etc).
 

nighthob

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You may need to do the same for teams needing a second or third baseman, Kim plays both.
Those are offensive positions, which is the questionable part of Kim's game. I tend to think that he profiles best as a starting SS or a UT, but no one's sacrificing major prospect capital for a UT.
 

SouthernBoSox

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That guys has been pretty early on several moves this off-season that proved the be correct. He was on the Twins- Marlins trade weeks before it happened.

I think those conversations are real and if that is the ask I bet something comes to fruition.
 

BaseballJones

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So let's say they get Kim. He's a terrific young player, with just 2 years of service. OBVIOUSLY he would be an enormous help to this club now. But whither Mayer in a couple of years? Just worry about that later? Because Kim is no stopgap. He's a guy who is your cornerstone SS (5.1 bWAR last season at age 26).
 

moondog80

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So let's say they get Kim. He's a terrific young player, with just 2 years of service. OBVIOUSLY he would be an enormous help to this club now. But whither Mayer in a couple of years? Just worry about that later? Because Kim is no stopgap. He's a guy who is your cornerstone SS (5.1 bWAR last season at age 26).
Only under control for two more years (signed from the Korean league so normal rules of 6 years don't apply). So almost a perfect stopgap, if they don't see fit to re-sign him.

Because of that (only 2 years of control) I would only deal Houck for Kim if I had inside info that suggested Houck was not as good as his numbers.
 

SouthernBoSox

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So let's say they get Kim. He's a terrific young player, with just 2 years of service. OBVIOUSLY he would be an enormous help to this club now. But whither Mayer in a couple of years? Just worry about that later? Because Kim is no stopgap. He's a guy who is your cornerstone SS (5.1 bWAR last season at age 26).
Kim has 2 years of control left. He is absolutely a perfect stop gap to Mayer as far as control
 

JM3

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So let's say they get Kim. He's a terrific young player, with just 2 years of service. OBVIOUSLY he would be an enormous help to this club now. But whither Mayer in a couple of years? Just worry about that later? Because Kim is no stopgap. He's a guy who is your cornerstone SS (5.1 bWAR last season at age 26).
I mean, he literally is a stopgap as he's a free agent in 2 years.

Houck/Dalbec isn't a bad ask. I wouldn't do it, but I might be kinda irrational about Houck at this point lol
 

SouthernBoSox

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I would only deal Houck for Kim if I had inside info that suggested Houck was not as good as his numbers.
Houck for Kim is definitely not a 'no brainier' given the control gap. That being said, I think the reason you talk yourself into it is based on the fact that if you are to believe Houck is a reliever - relievers are in much more abundance than 3-5 WAR shortstops.
 

moondog80

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Ok I'm wrong on that. Why does he only have 2 years of control left? He has only played two seasons in MLB.
Because he signed from another professional league and was not a traditional prospect. The Sox signed Yoshida to a five year deal -- they don't have a year of arb for year 6, he's just a FA.
 

BaseballJones

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Ah ok thank you. I learned something today.

So from a control standpoint, yes he'd be a great bridge to Mayer. BUT....he's also pretty darned good so he's a guy you probably would want to keep.
 

moondog80

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It's a pretty even deal, my biggest concern is that much of Kim's value is concentrated in this year, when they are in a contending window if things break right but not at a point where I want to trade the future for the present.
 

geoflin

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So from a control standpoint, yes he'd be a great bridge to Mayer. BUT....he's also pretty darned good so he's a guy you probably would want to keep.
I'd rather deal with that problem in 2 years than the problem of having to sign someone like Andrus, Iglesias, or Harrison and watch them play this year.
 

johnnywayback

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It's a pretty even deal, my biggest concern is that much of Kim's value is concentrated in this year, when they are in a contending window if things break right but not at a point where I want to trade the future for the present.
The other way to think about it is that Houck's value is being somewhat wasted -- he's not one of their five best starters (and there's an argument he's not a starter at all), and they're deep in the bullpen, whereas they are almost comically bereft of above-average up-the-middle players. Kim at SS gives you four good options for the CF/RF/2B carousel (Kiké, Verdugo, Duvall, Arroyo) and really stabilizes the roster in a way that nobody else available could, unless Colorado is willing to trade Rodgers or something else unexpected.
 

SouthernBoSox

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It also puts you in a really solid spot going into the 2023 offseason with your infield nailed down.

The shortstop problem isn't just a 2023 problem.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The other way to think about it is that Houck's value is being somewhat wasted -- he's not one of their five best starters (and there's an argument he's not a starter at all), and they're deep in the bullpen, whereas they are almost comically bereft of above-average up-the-middle players. Kim at SS gives you four good options for the CF/RF/2B carousel (Kiké, Verdugo, Duvall, Arroyo) and really stabilizes the roster in a way that nobody else available could, unless Colorado is willing to trade Rodgers or something else unexpected.
It’s not clear to me that Houck isn’t one of their five best starters, though. It would certainly not surprise me if he’s better than Paxton, Pivetta, and Kluber as soon as this year. There are questions about how many times he can go through an order, but the same questions exist of Whitlock (who has actually been worse times 2+ through the lineup).

Now, if the Sox aren’t willing to give him a shot or aren’t going to use him as a starter, than it may make sense to deal him, but even as a reliever, it seems like he can pretty valuable. Even in the most successful of years, it seems like another shutdown reliever is almost always needed.
 

TimScribble

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A 2-for-1 deal also frees up a roster spot, which Boston has been maneuvering around all off-season.
 

geoflin

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What the Baseball Trade Values post above doesn't take into account is that by shedding Dalbec and his 0.8 value it allows the Red Sox to open a spot on the 40 man roster for Duvall, thus not needing to DFA someone else and possibly lose whatever his value is.

Edit: TimScribble beat me to it
 

Yaz4Ever

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As high as I am on Houck, I'd pull the trigger on that deal. I'm a huge supporter of getting Kim. If Mayer flames out, we've still got a young guy. If Mayer continues to excel, can't one of them move to 2nd or 3rd? It's not a bad problem to have. The fact that Kim would be under contract until Mayer is ready gives us additional flexibility depending on how he performs and where Mayer is.