Red Sox in season discussion

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I posted this in one of the other threads, but Casas was 219/289/301 vs LH last year and 154/267/192 so far this year. If they decide to give him a little more time to season in AAA instead of bringing him up now where it might be too late to make a difference, I'm OK with that. Can we at least agree that what's best for Casas is a higher priority than what's best for the 2022 Red Sox?
There's zero harm in bringing him up to face RHP. None. It couldn't possibly hurt the team because they're awful anyway, and if he's put into positions where he can best succeed his development will be just fine. What will hurt his development is leaving him to stew in AAA while Dalbec continues to be awful, that would only make Casas wonder why he's not up yet.
 

moondog80

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There's zero harm in bringing him up to face RHP. None. It couldn't possibly hurt the team because they're awful anyway, and if he's put into positions where he can best succeed his development will be just fine.
The harm would be the opportunity cost of not having him face LH in the minors.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The harm would be the opportunity cost of not having him face LH in the minors.
IIRC platoon splits never really resolve themselves, either a guy can hit LH or he can't. Bill James wrote about this many years ago, I'll see if I can dig up the article. The study showed that they never really go away. Letting Casas face LHP in the minors won't really do much of anything.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The LH thing is a concern, but he had all of 83 PA’s vs them last year and 30 this year. How much can he really work on that given the relative infrequency with which he will be seeing LH pitchers? The game is riddled with impact LH hitters who really struggled against LH pitching. Hell, it would make him a pretty good platoon fit with Dalbec (although Bobby doesn’t seem able to hit anyone right now).
 

jon abbey

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BaseballJones

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If they bring Casas up, they'll need to keep someone there as a platoon partner. It would be terrible for him and the team to allow him to face MLB left handed pitchers at this point.

Of course, if they do that, then it slows his development against lefties if he's going to go the rest of this year not facing them. The only place he can "safely" get experience against lefties is in the minors.

I mean, right now, the Sox have SEVEN regulars (out of 10 regulars) that have an ops+ figure of 65 or below:

Vazquez: 65
Dalbec: 29
Story: 59
Verdugo: 65
Hernandez: 56
Bradley: 63
Arroyo: 60

Add in Plawecki as the backup catcher, who is at a stunning -15 ops+, and sure throw in Cordero who is here to "improve" the lineup, I guess, and he's sporting an ops+ of 53.

*If we add in Shaw, Arauz, and Wong - the next 3 on the list, who have a combined 35 PA among them, their ops+ numbers are.... -100, -100, and -10, having gone a combined 1-32 (.031) with 0 bb and 3 sacrifices (one bunt, two SF).

So of their top 12 position players by # of plate appearances, only *3* of them have ops+ numbers HIGHER THAN 65.

Their top 3 players have 334 PA among them, and of that group they have 99 hits in 313 AB (.316) with 9 homers and 35 rbi. Their next 12 guys have 722 PA among them, and of that group they have 118 hits in 649 AB (.182) with 7 homers and 57 rbi.

So 3 guys: 334 PA, 313 AB, 99 hits, 9 hr, 35 rbi, .316 avg
Next 12 guys: 722 PA, 649 AB, 118 hits, 7 hr, 57 rbi, .182 avg

That is unconscionably, unfathomably bad. Incomprehensibly bad.
 

jon abbey

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One guy being the exception doesn't mean anything. I suspect that the little league park he was playing in at the time had something to do with that as well. ;)
You said 'never', and he had a .921 OPS at home in 2011 and a .912 OPS on the road, Yankee Stadium actually really hurt him as it cut deeply into his doubles and triples that he piled up in DET.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Even if so, Granderson figured it out at the major league level, after thousands of ar bats against lefties. If we are waiting on Casas to figure out LH in the minors, we will be waiting forever.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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BJ, I'm not saying Casas will be a panacea. The lineup is uniformly awful. At the same time you cannot simply throw up your hands and do nothing about it. Bringing up Casas is the first and most obvious action to take. It can't possibly hurt either him or the team.
 

BigSoxFan

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Just look at Jared Walsh. Last year he hit like .170 against LHP but still made a huge impact for the Angels. Casas has the talent to do something similar. If he continues to mash RHP in AAA (currently has OPS > 1.000, he needs to be up here. Give him a taste of LHP and let him develop at the MLB level. He’s close to being ready. I’m assuming he’ll be up within the next month unless there are some extenuating circumstances.
 

jon abbey

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Chaim went into the season with Casas as Plan B for Bobby. Plan B is clearly needed. He can make up all the excuses that he wants, but it's just a lot of words to maintain the status quo of a situation he created.
Wasn't Travis Shaw plan B and Casas plan C mid-season?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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2020 doesn't really count.
Face of the matter is that the Sox are worse than the A's despite outspending them tenfold.

That's on Bloom. That's enough to get fired from any team. It's unacceptable and I can't understand how anyone here or in ownership thinks it's OK.

We're getting dangerously close to "Trust the process" here.
 

soxhop411

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The Yankees’ road OPS is .668. Judge has been good overall and Rizzo has definitely popped a few over the short porch (1.141 OPS in NY vs. .603 OPS on the road). Not to single out the Yankees -- the dumb and boring ball is the problem everywhere.

Instead of descending into histrionics, why don't we talk about the downstream effects of the bad ball? The drag has reduced the productivity that fly balls are hits.

2021 wOBA on fly balls (leaguewide) vs. 2022
.457 / .400

So the league is already hitting considerably worse on fly balls off the bat. Let's check how this has affected the Red Sox in particular.

2021 wOBA on fly balls (BOS) vs. 2022
.494 / .403

So far, it looks like the Red Sox are disproportionately affected relative to the league. I'm not sure if that's because of the roster construction (fly ball hitters) or Fenway's dimensions. But it definitely seems like the ball, because the Red Sox are hitting fly balls harder this year than they were last year.

2021 AVG. Exit Velocity on fly balls (BOS) vs. 2022
92.1 mph / 93.6 mph

What we're probably seeing is a real-time adjustment to this, on top of a short spring training. The team may be trying to hit line drives instead of fly balls, or maybe they haven't changed their approach. I'm not sure which is a better tactic right now, but the takeaway is not that they suddenly suck.
Yup, seems MLB is screwing with the balls again
View: https://twitter.com/CodifyBaseball/status/1523666315956736010

: 122,263 pitches, 21,038 balls in play, homers : 122,760 pitches, 20,488 balls in play, homers
 

moondog80

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Bloom has far more information about Casas than any of us and every incentive to improve the team now, especially now that Casas is past the service time cut point (I think?). If he says keeping him down would be better for development, that's good enough for me. Guy are given more than 134 PA at AA before getting called up all the time, it's not unusual. He will be up when it's best for him. I mean, do you think he's keeping him down because he wants the team to fail?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Bloom has far more information about Casas than any of us and every incentive to improve the team now, especially now that Casas is past the service time cut point (I think?). If he says keeping him down would be better for development, that's good enough for me. Guy are given more than 134 PA at AA before getting called up all the time, it's not unusual. He will be up when it's best for him.
Again, why should we trust Bloom's judgment? He built this team after all. His judgment was that they would be good. Lou Gorman had far more information than any of us did about Jeff Bagwell, the trade was a good one!

Casas should be up now.
 

BaseballJones

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BJ, I'm not saying Casas will be a panacea. The lineup is uniformly awful. At the same time you cannot simply throw up your hands and do nothing about it. Bringing up Casas is the first and most obvious action to take. It can't possibly hurt either him or the team.
Of course it *could* hurt him. We've explained how. It would retard (is it ok to use this word in this context? it's technically correct) his development against LHP, which would, long-term, hurt his ability to play baseball at the MLB level. The place for him to improve against LHP is in the minors.

So yeah, I agree that brining him up probably can't hurt the MLB club, but it definitely could hurt HIM.
 

jon abbey

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Bloom has far more information about Casas than any of us and every incentive to improve the team now, especially now that Casas is past the service time cut point (I think?). If he says keeping him down would be better for development, that's good enough for me. Guy are given more than 134 PA at AA before getting called up all the time, it's not unusual. He will be up when it's best for him. I mean, do you think he's keeping him down because he wants the team to fail?
"I think this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody's part."
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Of course it *could* hurt him. We've explained how. It would retard (is it ok to use this word in this context? it's technically correct) his development against LHP, which would, long-term, hurt his ability to play baseball at the MLB level. The place for him to improve against LHP is in the minors.

So yeah, I agree that brining him up probably can't hurt the MLB club, but it definitely could hurt HIM.
Again, I don't think about 100 PAs in the minors against LHP will make a damn bit of difference in Casas' development. He's not going to suddenly figure out LHP, aside from Granderson as Jon Abbey pointed out, no one really does that.

It's not going to hurt him. Bloom stubbornly insisting on leaving him to rot in the minors while the major league team continues to field a black hole at first base is the very essence of self-defeat.
 

BaseballJones

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The two teams that have spent by far the most money on payroll the past 10 seasons are the Dodgers and the Yankees. Now to be fair, both teams have been consistently really really good over this time span, and it's a rare year that either of them has actually been bad. And neither has been THIS bad.

And yet...the Red Sox have 2 WS titles in the last 10 years, 1 more than the Yankees and Dodgers combined. They have 2 WS appearances, 1 less than those two teams combined.
 

moondog80

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Again, why should we trust Bloom's judgment? He built this team after all. His judgment was that they would be good.

Casas should be up now.

Did his judgement all of a sudden go from awesome last year to terrible this year? Or is predicting player performance really difficult and prone to randomness in both directions that nobody sees coming?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Of course it *could* hurt him. We've explained how. It would retard (is it ok to use this word in this context? it's technically correct) his development against LHP, which would, long-term, hurt his ability to play baseball at the MLB level. The place for him to improve against LHP is in the minors.

So yeah, I agree that brining him up probably can't hurt the MLB club, but it definitely could hurt HIM.
he will likely have about 50-60 plate appearances against lefties the rest of the way. Will that really tell us much?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Did his judgement all of a sudden go from awesome last year to terrible this year? Or is predicting player performance really difficult and prone to randomness in both directions that nobody sees coming?
As pointed out earlier in the thread, the offense showed alarming signs in the second half last year that it could be a problem going into this year.

Dalbec's entire career rides on a single 30 game streak:

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1523384807094251520?s=20&t=8SjZtSACMtirEXtEybxU-w


This was known to everyone including Bloom. First base going into this year was a problem and nothing was and is being done about it. The trade for JBJ, who I love, was known to be a downgrade for the offense as well.
 

BaseballJones

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Again, I don't think about 100 PAs in the minors against LHP will make a damn bit of difference in Casas' development. He's not going to suddenly figure out LHP, aside from Granderson as Jon Abbey pointed out, no one really does that.

It's not going to hurt him.
You don't think it will, but clearly the Red Sox think it could. And nobody thinks he'll "suddenly" figure it out. Just that he could show gradual improvement over some time.

Because if you bring him up now, and you let him face LHP in the majors, he will get absolutely murdered against those lefties. So that won't help. And if you bring him up and don't let him face LHP in the majors, then you're deciding here and now that he will be a platoon player the rest of his career basically. Because if he goes the rest of this season not even facing LHPs, he sure won't be any better against them in 2023, so you'd be facing the same choice there too, with likely the same calculus and same outcome.

So your call: In order to help a struggling 2022 team, do you decide here and now that Casas is going to be a platoon player for his career, or are you going to let him try to improve against LHPs?
 

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Bloom cannot be held responsible for 2020
Again. Why not?

Theo was considered responsible for the Sox going to the ALCS in 2003, wasn't he?
Dave Dombrowski got the accolades when the Sox won the AL East in his first season.
Ben Cherington didn't get the blame in 2012 because LL saddled him with Bobby Valentine.

But Chaim Bloom swung the Mookie Betts deal, he made a bunch of other moves that didn't work out. I don't know what to tell you, but he definitely gets the responsibility for the 2020 team. He's the head of baseball ops.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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So your call: In order to help a struggling 2022 team, do you decide here and now that Casas is going to be a platoon player for his career, or are you going to let him try to improve against LHPs?
This strikes me as a false choice. You can bring him up now to face RHP with the idea of helping the 2022 team as he cannot possibly be worse than Dalbec. If you want to get him work against LHP you can either let him do that in the majors in non-key situations or he can play in the fall league after the season ends.

Bloom could easily have it all here with Casas. All it requires is action. There's no need for the seeming paralysis that grips the org when it comes to Casas. Leaving him to mash in AAA while the MLB club struggles is an odd choice to say the least. If it was Theo in charge I'd have no issues trusting the plan. With Bloom, there's no reason to trust it because nothing he's done has worked out.
 

BaseballJones

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As pointed out earlier in the thread, the offense showed alarming signs in the second half last year that it could be a problem going into this year.

Dalbec's entire career rides on a single 30 game streak:

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1523384807094251520?s=20&t=8SjZtSACMtirEXtEybxU-w
That's just not true.

His first season with the Sox he played 23 games and hit .263/.359/.600/.959.
His second season with the Sox he started off terrible. First 84 games he hit .215/.260/.391/.651. But his last 49 games he hit .287/.367/.692/1.059.
And this season he's hitting .139/.225/.215/.440 over 26 games.

So he's had two really good stretches in his short career, and two horrific stretches. But even if THIS year he hit like his poor 84 games of LAST year, that would be a HUGE improvement for this team. There isn't a person in the world that thought Dalbec would hit like THIS. Not even you, SJH. Not even you.
 

BaseballJones

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This strikes me as a false choice. You can bring him up now to face RHP with the idea of helping the 2022 team as he cannot possibly be worse than Dalbec. If you want to get him work against LHP you can either let him do that in the majors in non-key situations or he can play in the fall league after the season ends.

Bloom could easily have it all here with Casas. All it requires is action. There's no need for the seeming paralysis that grips the org when it comes to Casas. Leaving him to mash in AAA while the MLB club struggles is an odd choice to say the least. If it was Theo in charge I'd have no issues trusting the plan. With Bloom, there's no reason to trust it because nothing he's done has worked out.
It really kind of is the choice though. How many AB against lefties will he have in "non-key" situations in the majors, when he's ostensibly there to help the club win games? I mean if he's up with the Sox, you can't start him against lefties, because you have to assume that you're trying to win those games, and he's a terrible option and yeah, those ABs are assumed to be "key". Only if he came in as a sub in a blowout AND happened to face a lefty late in a game would he even get to face a LHP.

Sure, fall league, which he can do in any event. But he's still losing a season in the minors facing lefties. That's the point.

So yeah, you're basically deciding that he's not going to be much more than a platoon guy if you call him up now. Which maybe that's what he is.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Of course no one thought Dalbec would put up a -0.7 WAR in 29 games this year. But the danger signs were already out there because of the long stretches of completely ineffectual play. And he's having a bad stretch now like he's had multiple times in his career, and the Sox have a capable replacement at the ready. If only they'd break the glass, because this is an emergency.
 

BaseballJones

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Of course no one thought he'd put up a -0.7 WAR in 29 games this year. But the danger signs were already out there because of the long stretches of completely ineffectual play. And he's having a bad stretch now like he's had multiple times in his career, and the Sox have a capable replacement at the ready. If only they'd break the glass, because this is an emergency.
We knew he'd be streaky. In his short career he'd already shown that. But nobody thought he'd be THIS bad. Not even you.

One good thing is that because he's streaky, isn't he starting to be due for one of his hot streaks?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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We knew he'd be streaky. In his short career he'd already shown that. But nobody thought he'd be THIS bad. Not even you.

One good thing is that because he's streaky, isn't he starting to be due for one of his hot streaks?
I don't believe in the gambler's fallacy. More seriously, his hot streaks came with a different ball. I'm not sure he's due for anything except benching and demotion.
 

nattysez

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Again, I don't think about 100 PAs in the minors against LHP will make a damn bit of difference in Casas' development. He's not going to suddenly figure out LHP, aside from Granderson as Jon Abbey pointed out, no one really does that.

It's not going to hurt him.
The way the bullpen has been handled this season seems like a tell. If you told Bloom and Cora tomorrow that they need to win the next five games or they're fired, Whitlock would be closing. In reality, Bloom and Cora are focused on the future, so they're stretching Whitlock out and hoping that he and Houck are part of the rotation of the future even if it costs them games now. Part of me thinks that management saw the teams the MFY and Jays put together and decided they weren't going to turn the team's development plan upside-down to compete.

On Casas, Bloom said: "Obviously looking at how he does versus lefties, how he does versus big-league stuff is really important." Their self-scouting may be saying that Casas is not ready to hit major-league breaking balls yet, and they don't want to call him up just to look like Dalbec or Duran. Separately, putting Casas in the position of having to save a struggling team is unfair to him and probably not great for his development. They are making sure he's ready before he's called up.

And if you're going to kill Bloom, the place to start is the Barnes extension. That extension turned the entire bullpen upside-down and is taking up a lot of money that could've been spent on bringing in better arms to throw at the wall until someone showed a little reliability.

Anyway, they are 29 games in. I'm mentally prepared for the rest of this season to be a disaster, but I do think it's a little early for the extremity of opinion in this thread.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't believe in the gambler's fallacy. More seriously, his hot streaks came with a different ball. I'm not sure he's due for anything except benching and demotion.
Well do you buy and sell stocks? Do you tend to sell low or when stocks are low, do you tend to buy figuring they'll go up? And if you don't believe in the gambler's fallacy, you have no reason to think that Dalbec will continue to suck, because past events have no bearing on future ones.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The way the bullpen has been handled this season seems like a tell. If you told Bloom and Cora tomorrow that they need to win the next five games or they're fired, Whitlock would be closing. In reality, Bloom and Cora are focused on the future, so they're stretching Whitlock out and hoping that he and Houck are part of the rotation of the future even if it costs them games now. Part of me thinks that management saw the teams the MFY and Jays put together and decided they weren't going to turn the team's development plan upside-down to compete.

On Casas, Bloom said: "Obviously looking at how he does versus lefties, how he does versus big-league stuff is really important." Their self-scouting may be saying that Casas is not ready to hit major-league breaking balls yet, and they don't want to call him up just to look like Dalbec or Duran. Separately, putting Casas in the position of having to save a struggling team is unfair to him and probably not great for his development. They are making sure he's ready before he's called up.

And if you're going to kill Bloom, the place to start is the Barnes extension. That extension turned the entire bullpen upside-down and is taking up a lot of money that could've been spent on bringing in better arms to throw at the wall until someone showed a little reliability.

Anyway, they are 29 games in. I'm mentally prepared for the rest of this season to be a disaster, but I do think it's a little early for the extremity of opinion in this thread.
Putting Whitlock in the rotation would be a sign of planning for the future if they had done it at the beginning of the season, but it was done when shithead Houck had to be dropped from the rotation because he couldn't play in Toronto. That's not a sign of long term planning, that's a sign of fixing things on the fly.

If management saw Toronto and NYY and thought they daresn't compete with them, then they should be fired immediately. There's no reason why the Red Sox, with the financial might of several small ocean nations, cannot compete every single year no matter the opposition.

29 games in sounds like very few, but they're already so far back in every race that matters that realistically they are done for the season. The odds are astronomically low they'll be able to make up 10 games in the division or 8 1/2 in the WC fighting against teams that have actually played well.