Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
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Frankie Montas is a great target, and a better fit than Manaea or Bassitt. He’s got one of the best splitters in the game (behind Gausman) and he could find his great 2019 slider again. Only two years control but I’d take it.
Maybe they’d do a trade built around Duran and a 40-man bubble pitcher for Montas and Andrus? I think A’s are on the hook for $7.25m of Andrus’ contract. They’ll wanna avoid playing him a full season again and letting his $15m option vest in ‘23. Maybe he could be next year’s Iglesias?
I had the same thought- why let a very good manager walk if the A's are planning on competing next year? Although Oakland often makes moves that surprise me.
Matt Olson would be an ideal target but doesn't seem to fit the Sox plans for Casas moving up to 1B in the semi-near future. I really hope he doesn't go to the NYY.
Unless that frees up Casas to be moved for a young controllable starter. Doubtful, but Olson is already what we hope Casas can be.
Or you move Casas directly for Olson and upgrade first base right this second rather than at some point in the future. Olson only has two years of control remaining, so it might work for both sides.
Goodness, Olson would be amazing for this team. Lefty power bat. Gold glove caliber defender. He'd help the overall infield defense a ton.
I bet a Casas for Olson deal would tempt Oakland. But I think the Yankees - for whom Olson is also a perfect fit - would put together a very strong package for him that might require Boston to up the offer. And I don't know just how much I want to spend for Olson. But man he'd be perfect for Boston.
The Sox would have to figure out what to do with both Casas and Dalbec, but you could include Casas in the deal for Olson and then move Dalbec for younger prospects to a power-needy team.
I bet a Casas for Olson deal would tempt Oakland. But I think the Yankees - for whom Olson is also a perfect fit - would put together a very strong package for him that might require Boston to up the offer. And I don't know just how much I want to spend for Olson. But man he'd be perfect for Boston.
The Sox would have to figure out what to do with both Casas and Dalbec, but you could include Casas in the deal for Olson and then move Dalbec for younger prospects to a power-needy team.
The Olsen conundrum is you’d be staring at paying him, Bogaerts and Devers long term extensions without even dipping into pitching. If they can afford it, awesome.
I'm stunned to see people advocating for trading Casas for another 1B. Casas has the potential to be a plus contributor at first for cheap as early as next summer. You need players like that if you're going to extend Devers or pay to upgrade the pitching. I could see the argument in dealing Casas for a frontline starter, but anything short of that, hard pass. The argument for a deal like Casas-for-Olson is that you're offloading risk and acquiring the more established player. But 1B is the easiest position (outside of DH) to fill. We just played a competitive LCS starting a guy who had basically never played there before. So the risk that Casas flames out is pretty low given that a) it's not hard to find a 1B, and b) you have Dalbec who was serviceable at the position as a ready-made backfill.
I'm with ya. There's almost no realistic trade where I'd be willing to trade Casas (and maybe more) for a guy who has 2 years left on his contract, playing 1B.
1B is one of the easiest positions to fill, particularly in the offseason. If the Sox are going to trade Casas, I hope it's for a frontline starter or an up the middle position player, not Matt Olson. Unless you're talking about a bigger deal in which Montas or Bassitt are included, this just doesn't make much sense to me. And that's not even including the contract you'd have to pony up to keep Olson around. (And while I'm here, no thanks to Elvis Andrus, as well).
You guys are crazy with the Casas for Olson talk. THIS is why we resigned Cordero! They should trade HIM for Olson.
+2
This is Chaim Bloom we're talking about. Trading young cost controlled talent for more expensive production at the same position is the opposite of his M.O.
I agree with the posters who say the new players on the roster are likely to be names we are only peripherally familiar with. Kike/Renfroe/Arroyo redux.
Cubs reportedly shopping Contreras. He's got one more year of control and had a pretty good season at the plate. I think he'd make a pretty good tandem with Vazquez, plus provide some value at DH if JD opts out. Thoughts?
Contreras is an intriguing alternative if they forego picking up Vazquez's option, but I can't see them on the same roster. Too much money in one position for not enough upgrade overall.
Agree with @Red(s)HawksFan on Contreras. Relevant to the Cubs purge, Ian Happ is an interesting reclamation project who’s seemed poised for a breakout for years now. He’d be due roughly $6.5m with two years control remaining and I wonder if they’d be willing to move on. He’s plenty versatile though I’m not sure if he’s adept enough defensively to qualify as a Chris Taylor-type.
I agree wholeheartedly with the idea that it would be preferable to fill the 1b slot with a young, cost-controlled player. The thing is, we have no idea what Casas will actually be. If we get lucky, he'll be something approximating Olson. Olson is already GREAT. And for the next two years, relatively inexpensive.
I do think they can fill 1b without Olson. All I was suggesting was that Olson would be a super fit on the Sox. He will also be a perfect fit for the Yankees, who are much more likely to pursue a deal for him.
Fair enough on Vazquez - I agree that they shouldn't be on the same roster, and I think Contreras is the better option of the two. Maybe bring back Plawecki as a backup or see if Wong can stick?
Happ is interesting - I haven't seen a ton of him, but he's got raw power and defensive flexibility that would pair nicely with our need at 2B and the outfield. Seems like a good fit. Wonder if Chicago would package Contreras+Happ for Duran and some other pieces.
Plawecki is still under team control for another year, so he's back already (barring a trade). I think the most likely case is they're going to pick up Vazquez's option and enter 2022 with the same plan at the catcher position as 2021: Vazquez and Plawecki with Wong on the shuttle as the third catcher. 2023 is where I expect changes at that position, with both Vazquez and Plawecki entering free agency and Wong (1 option remaining) and Ronaldo Hernandez (no options after 2022) banging on the door.
Happ did not play 2B at all in 2020 and played just 34.2 innings there last season, fewer than four full games. Considering that the Cubs traded Javy Baez in July and Nico Hoerner spent most of the last two months of 2021 injured, Happ’s absence from the keystone could not be ascribed to a lack of need at the position. At this point, JA Happ may be as much of a second base solution.
He's also got 260 innings at 2b in 2017 and 82 innings in 2019, so it's not like he has no experience there. It's not his primary position, but Bloom's going to look for flexible, creative solutions to existing roster shortages. Given that we don't have a 2b on our roster that's not made of glass (looking at you, Arroyo), I think getting a guy who's good for 25+ home runs and 75 rbis a year while shoring up a glaring positional need and augmenting a defensively-deficient outfield is a pretty good thing.
The big concern I have is how terrible the defense is, both infield and outfield. (The catchers are fine, at least.)
Our fielding percentage was 29th of 30. Our defensive efficiency was 30th of 30. We were 20th in team dWAR, but several wins behind the 19th team, so it's more like we were the best of the bad defensive teams than a middle of the pack team. Our pitching staff had the fifth biggest gap between FIP and ERA.
Red Sox players by OAA (which doesn't do catchers), some in quite small samples:
Kiké 5
Marwin 5
Chavis 2
Iglesias 2
Arroyo 1
Santana 0
Lopez 0
Duran 0
Arauz 0
JDM -1
Franchy -1
Renfroe -2
Shaw -3
Schwarber -4
Verdugo -6
Dalbec -8
Bogaerts -10
Devers -13
Yeah. The outfield is below average, but the infield is just unplayable.
The picture is similar looking at other metrics: DRS loves Kiké, but likes Verdugo and both Christians, too; UZR hates Verdugo, but is more sanguine on Bogaerts than the other systems, basically concluding that while his range is bad, his low error count and double play reliability make up for it. But the fact remains that Kiké is the only consensus good defender among the non-catchers. That's not a great recipe for success.
I'm of two minds.
One mind says we just made game six of the ALCS with that terrible defense, so how bad can it really be? Supplement basically the same team this offseason, try again with Sale hopefully joining Eovaldi at the top of the rotation and better depth in the high minors, and then really shake things up after 2022, as we turn things over to whichever of the Duran/Casas/Downs/Wong future core have shown something.
But... that defense is the clear weakness of the team, and a team with championship aspirations has to at least try to do something about it, right? Do we really want to piss away a season of Eovaldi and Sale still relatively in their prime because we want to field a team with four DHs on it?
So my other mind wants to do something much more radical, but upgrading team defense is so much more complicated than improving pitching or offense. I'm honestly not sure it can be done in a single offseason. This hasn't stopped me from cooking up all manner of schemes:
Our fielding percentage was 29th of 30. Our defensive efficiency was 30th of 30. We were 20th in team dWAR, but several wins behind the 19th team, so it's more like we were the best of the bad defensive teams than a middle of the pack team. Our pitching staff had the fifth biggest gap between FIP and ERA.
Red Sox players by OAA (which doesn't do catchers), some in quite small samples:
Kiké 5
Marwin 5
Chavis 2
Iglesias 2
Arroyo 1
Santana 0
Lopez 0
Duran 0
Arauz 0
JDM -1
Franchy -1
Renfroe -2
Shaw -3
Schwarber -4
Verdugo -6
Dalbec -8
Bogaerts -10
Devers -13
Yeah. The outfield is below average, but the infield is just unplayable.
The picture is similar looking at other metrics: DRS loves Kiké, but likes Verdugo and both Christians, too; UZR hates Verdugo, but is more sanguine on Bogaerts than the other systems, basically concluding that while his range is bad, his low error count and double play reliability make up for it. But the fact remains that Kiké is the only consensus good defender among the non-catchers. That's not a great recipe for success.
I'm of two minds.
One mind says we just made game six of the ALCS with that terrible defense, so how bad can it really be? Supplement basically the same team this offseason, try again with Sale hopefully joining Eovaldi at the top of the rotation and better depth in the high minors, and then really shake things up after 2022, as we turn things over to whichever of the Duran/Casas/Downs/Wong future core have shown something.
But... that defense is the clear weakness of the team, and a team with championship aspirations has to at least try to do something about it, right? Do we really want to piss away a season of Eovaldi and Sale still relatively in their prime because we want to field a team with four DHs on it?
So my other mind wants to do something much more radical, but upgrading team defense is so much more complicated than improving pitching or offense. I'm honestly not sure it can be done in a single offseason. This hasn't stopped me from cooking up all manner of schemes:
- selling high on Renfroe, moving Bogaerts to a corner OF spot, and signing one of the FA shortstops;
- moving Devers to 1B and trading Casas and Duran? for José Ramirez;
- acquiring and extending in Byron Buxton in a blockbuster, DHing Devers, moving Bogaerts to 3B, playing Kiké at SS;
- etc., etc.
Agree with each point you make. The trade simulator likes Casas/Duran for Ramirez. But the likeliest route for 2022 is to tinker and find another Kiké type, a defensively oriented utility guy for occasional starts and late inning replacements. Maybe just re-upping with Iglesias. (And then find some high K rate relievers who don't rely as much on defense!)
Chris Taylor is the obvious fit for the utility player / Kiki 2021 role.
Relievers who look like good potential fits include Daniel Hudson, Corey Knebel, Andrew Chafin, Kendall Graveman, and Ryan Tepera.
Relievers who look like good potential fits include Daniel Hudson, Corey Knebel, Andrew Chafin, Kendall Graveman, and Ryan Tepera.
The problem is that he’s also an obvious fit for that role for 29 other teams, too.
I can’t help but think that improved 1B play, either from Dalbec or his replacement, combined with health from Arroyo, allowing Kike to play more in CF, would cure a lot of ailments.
Not only that, but he's a better player than Kike so he's going to command a higher salary regardless of the other teams looking to sign him. He'd be a great player to have, but I imagine Taylor, much like Kike last winter, is going to be looking for a more steady role with whatever team he signs. If the Sox say "we want you to play multiple positions based on need/match-up" and team X says "we want you to be our everyday <pick a position>", I think Taylor goes with team X if the money is similar.
Unlikely. At least not in 2022. Bogaerts has one year left before his opt-out. Can't imagine he wants to change position and move down the defensive spectrum right before his big chance to cash in. 2023 and beyond with a shiny new contract, he might be open to it if he's still here. Similar answer for Devers. Two years from free agency, he'll want to stick where his bat provides the best value in terms of his salary. That's third, not first or DH. Bloom and Cora would have to do a hell of a sell job on either of them to make them okay with a position change.
According to this article on boston.com Bogaerts is open to a move to 2B or 3B. It also says he plans to opt out, but wants to stay in Boston.
I would think the Sox could offer Taylor the starting 2b role. I don’t think Arroyo has the job on lockdown. But you are right in that he should be a player in demand. He seems a more realistic target than any of the SS or Semien though.
As for Bogaerts, I’m sure he’s be open to switching positions but he’s going to want to be paid like an elite SS.
As for Bogaerts, I’m sure he’s be open to switching positions but he’s going to want to be paid like an elite SS.
Bogaerts suggested that he was when his long-term future with the team was discussed at the end of the season, but I don’t think he meant any time soon. I also don’t think anyone is going to consider that option seriously for Devers until he signs his big contract. In the meantime, both would benefit from competent playfrom their 1Bman.
I don’t think we tie up second base with a long-term contract when we’ve got Arroyo, Downs, Yorke and potentially Bogaerts in the pipeline there. Unless it’s Semien, but that would mean at eventual position swap with X.
Chris Taylor is going to be an interesting QO question for the Dodgers. I think he ultimately stays there in a multi-year deal, but he’s probably worth 1/$18 to them if they don’t work something out, and at his age he might accept it. And then if we’re going to sign a free agent with a QO attached, I don’t think it’s him.
My three under-the-radar picks for a guy like this are Nick Senzel, Ian Happ and Chad Pinder, though none are quite as good defensively and they’d likely require trades unless they’re non-tendered. For FAs, maybe Jonathan Villar will have another good season? Besides that we may have more luck rolling the dice again on Danny Santana.
By the end of last season, the Cubs were regularly rolling out infields featuring the likes of Sergio Alcantara, David Bote, Trent Giambrone, and Alfonso Rivas, a lineup usually limited to video games that do not pay for MLBPA licensing rights. What the Cubs’ infield did not feature regularly last season or at all the prior season was Ian Happ. Happ’s versatility is rivaled only by Bob’s Country Bunker, where they have both kinds of music— country and western.
While that would probably be true, it seems a bit much to lay the problem of the IF defense at Dalbec’s door. He did not miss so many bad throws that even saving all of them would have really moved the needle that much. If we’re being kind, Devers is streaky in the field (and if we’re not, erratic isn’t really a stretch), and X has really poor range for a SS. Throwing really isn’t their problem to the point where a better defensive 1Bman is the solution.
Well, that’s just it. That’s a big part of what I said about realism, and it makes me wonder how long those guys will actually be here.
I have been kicking around a trade idea for how to improve the infield defense both short and long term. For all of the talk about shuffling Devers/X around, it seems unlikely to me that the Sox would hand out a big extension to Devers and then immediately move him to DH. With Casas as their top (or at least #2) prospect and seemingly very close to the majors, 1B isn't really a long term option either. So what if they extend Devers and X, move Devers to LF and made the following trade?
Red Sox get: Jose Ramirez (2 team options at $11M and $13M)
Guardians get: Verdugo (3 arb years), Duran (6 years), and Dalbec (5 years)
Ramirez would immediately improve the defense at 3B and may even help cover some of Bogaerts' lack of range. It would also provide a natural transition point for X to 3B just as Mayer is hopefully getting close. Ramirez is an upgrade over Verdugo offensively while not losing a needed lefty bat. It would make the cost of a Devers extension much more palatable if he can play a position. Losing Duran would hurt since he is the only real OF prospect the Sox have that is even close to the majors, but filling LF in the medium term with Devers would make it hurt less. Dalbec is an interesting player but I think everyone hopes Casas replaces him at 1B very soon, so he would probably be left in bench role here.
Cleveland's current outfield is abysmal and it looks like their top prospects are much more IF than OF. Verdugo provides them a quality corner OF and Duran another potential one. Nolan Jones (3B, LHH) is their #3 prospect and on the verge of the majors so they have a potential replacement for Ramirez already. Dalbec would provide a platoon partner/fallback plan for both Jones and Bobbie Bradley at 1B. Obviously exchanging 2 years of control for a total of 14 years of control is very valuable for a budget conscious team like Cleveland.
The big risk here is depending on Devers to learn to be an outfielder when he has never played there professionally. He is not a plodder and he has a good arm so the hope is he can become competent out there, but I think what makes this trade realistic is that there are multiple options if he looks like HanRam 2.0. Jose Ramirez has experience at 2B (and even 50 games in LF) so Devers could always move back to 3B. He could also move to 1B for the rest of '22 since Dalbec's replacement would likely be a cheap vet on a 1 year deal, with a move to DH after JD leaves. The deal allows them to improve while staying flexible at 1B and 2B in case Casas/Downs/Yorke force the issue.
The trade simulator lists this as an almost exactly even trade, but it depends on how the Sox view the importance of improving the infield defense and whether they see Duran as a legitimate major league outfielder or if the defense/contact issues will limit him to more of a 4th OF. My gut feel is that including both Duran and Dalbec is too steep so maybe there is another small piece from Cleveland, although that might be the rose colored glasses. It would seem to me to provide a realistic path forward to keeping X and Devers on the team while not locking in bad infield defense for the foreseeable future.
Red Sox get: Jose Ramirez (2 team options at $11M and $13M)
Guardians get: Verdugo (3 arb years), Duran (6 years), and Dalbec (5 years)
Ramirez would immediately improve the defense at 3B and may even help cover some of Bogaerts' lack of range. It would also provide a natural transition point for X to 3B just as Mayer is hopefully getting close. Ramirez is an upgrade over Verdugo offensively while not losing a needed lefty bat. It would make the cost of a Devers extension much more palatable if he can play a position. Losing Duran would hurt since he is the only real OF prospect the Sox have that is even close to the majors, but filling LF in the medium term with Devers would make it hurt less. Dalbec is an interesting player but I think everyone hopes Casas replaces him at 1B very soon, so he would probably be left in bench role here.
Cleveland's current outfield is abysmal and it looks like their top prospects are much more IF than OF. Verdugo provides them a quality corner OF and Duran another potential one. Nolan Jones (3B, LHH) is their #3 prospect and on the verge of the majors so they have a potential replacement for Ramirez already. Dalbec would provide a platoon partner/fallback plan for both Jones and Bobbie Bradley at 1B. Obviously exchanging 2 years of control for a total of 14 years of control is very valuable for a budget conscious team like Cleveland.
The big risk here is depending on Devers to learn to be an outfielder when he has never played there professionally. He is not a plodder and he has a good arm so the hope is he can become competent out there, but I think what makes this trade realistic is that there are multiple options if he looks like HanRam 2.0. Jose Ramirez has experience at 2B (and even 50 games in LF) so Devers could always move back to 3B. He could also move to 1B for the rest of '22 since Dalbec's replacement would likely be a cheap vet on a 1 year deal, with a move to DH after JD leaves. The deal allows them to improve while staying flexible at 1B and 2B in case Casas/Downs/Yorke force the issue.
The trade simulator lists this as an almost exactly even trade, but it depends on how the Sox view the importance of improving the infield defense and whether they see Duran as a legitimate major league outfielder or if the defense/contact issues will limit him to more of a 4th OF. My gut feel is that including both Duran and Dalbec is too steep so maybe there is another small piece from Cleveland, although that might be the rose colored glasses. It would seem to me to provide a realistic path forward to keeping X and Devers on the team while not locking in bad infield defense for the foreseeable future.
If they are able to sign Taylor - or any other player able to play second - to a multiyear contract, that player should be comfortable playing other positions, because Yorke may be bearing down the major leagues pretty fast. Xander opting out and then going elsewhere or staying and changing positions in 2023, further necessitates signing a versatile player who isn't dead set on only playing one position.
Taylor probably is more realistic than Semien, yes. Though Semien's ability to slide between short and second makes him pretty ideal given there could be a lot of changes in the Sox middle infield to adjust to in the next few years.
This, to me, is the key point of an excellent post.
To rebut the portion of the board that was furious last season about Bloom not making trades to improve the 2021 team’s chances, I argued a number of times that 2022 would be the first year in which Bloom really went for it. But @Sprowl made a persuasive case recently that we probably won’t see that until ‘23, and that ‘22 will probably be another year in which Bloom prioritizes system development over maximizing the big league club’s chances for a title.
I’m confident that Bloom himself recognizes these same challenges with roster fit and defensive performance. And if we’ve learned anything about him, it’s that he’s going to be patient and prefer to make a series of ongoing incremental improvements rather than radical swings for the fences/roster overhauls. In other words, I agree that the theme of the upcoming season with be Keep Tinkering in ‘22.
So I see no chance this offseason that Casas or Verdugo are traded, that Devers or Bogaerts are moved off their positions, or that 2B is locked up longer term. It’s early, but as of right now I expect a series of bullpen signings, a mid-level starter acquisition in free agency (probably a three-yearish contract), perhaps one or two new defense-first utility players, and maybe a resigning of Schwarber.
I think the Sox will be clear contenders for the wild card, a better team than in ‘21 with an outside shot at the division, but probably once again not legitimate title contenders. Overall, I remain very upbeat about the organization’s trajectory and Bloom’s leadership.
Barring some shocking move, I think the Sox go into 2022 like this:
C - Vazquez
1b - Dalbec (Casas maybe being called up in August)
2b - Arroyo
3b - Devers
SS - Bogaerts
LF - Verdugo
CF - K. Hernandez
RF - Renfroe
DH - Either JDM or Schwarber (if JDM opts out)
Bench - Plawecki, Iglesias, Shaw, Arauz, maybe one other guy who has a better bat than Shaw hopefully
SP - Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Houck
RP - Barnes, Sawamura, Taylor, Whitlock (who I think will be kept in the bullpen - sorry PETA), Robles (who they will re-sign), D. Hernandez, one or two other additions (and Seabold and Crawford may be ready)
In other words, the 2022 team will largely be what the 2021 team looked like, IMO. They won't have Perez or Rodriguez, so they'll need to add another starter, but that's a solid rotation right there. The bullpen is okay. Not awesome, but okay. The "one or two additions" I reference hopefully will be major upgrades. Otherwise, the team is in pretty good shape for 2022. Bloom will be looking at 2023 as a key year. Because then I suspect Duran, Casas, Seabold, maybe even Groome, Bello, and Winckowski, will be ready.
I hope they get a better player than Shaw but I think they like him, and he is a bit versatile, which helps as a bench player. But I think they can do better for not much money.
Agreed on Shaw and Iglesias, but Arauz is under team control (and has options). See no reason he's not back and riding the Worcester shuttle for another year.
I really hope they don't bring back the same bench options. The bench was not nearly good enough this year. It won't certainly be any "shocking moves" if Bloom upgrades the bench. I also don't believe they will bring back the same starting 9 either. I believe they will try to sell high on Renfroe and bring in someone better.
Peter Fatse is being promoted to hitting coach. Assistant hitting coach the last two seasons.
Cosigned here. Shaw's bat looked awfully slow--cooked, in fact--during the ALCS. I expect an upgrade of his position and caliber should be available.
I'm all for making those pieces available in a trade, but Devers in LF makes no sense to me: He is a far more valuable player because he allows you to get THAT kind of production from someone who can hold down a spot on the good end of the defensive spectrum. Trading for a position player two years from a massive free agency contract also makes no sense to me. Are you going to give Ramirez, Bogaerts, and Devers all nine-figure contracts? And if you're okay with doing that in the name of improving the infield, why not just sign Carlos Correa and move Bogaerts to 2B?
I wonder if the Sox will have interest in Tsutsugo. He had a pretty nice run in the second half last year for a 134 wRC+ even with a bad October. I didn't watch him much, but his UZR numbers suggest he's playable at 1b and LF, for some flexibility. He has had a rough time in MLB, but it's hard to project that since he came over from Japan just in time for 2020. Seems like a candidate for cheap, league average production, though definitely with some risk. I think he's definitely a target if JD opts out and Schwarber signs elsewhere.
This thread seems pretty confident that Dalbec is back. I still worry that his profile will be prone to streaks and crashes, so this would be a chance to sell high. The trade market is so hard to predict, but I think they will look to flip him for near MLB ready pitching and replace him with a patchwork.
This thread seems pretty confident that Dalbec is back. I still worry that his profile will be prone to streaks and crashes, so this would be a chance to sell high. The trade market is so hard to predict, but I think they will look to flip him for near MLB ready pitching and replace him with a patchwork.