Red Sox Deadline Discussion (nothing is credible) thread

SemperFidelisSox · Jul 25, 2015

If they're "all in" on Cueto and are prepared to offer him the 7-8/$200m kind of deal it would take to sign him, why not just save your prospects and wait until the offseason? He's not signing any extension here before seeing what the market is first.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jul 25, 2015

SemperFidelisSox said:
If they're "all in" on Cueto and are prepared to offer him the 7-8/$200m kind of deal it would take to sign him, why not just save your prospects and wait until the offseason? He's not signing any extension here before seeing what the market is first.

Unless they offer a clear overpay, which would be stupid. Trading prospects and overpaying for an already incredibly expensive player makes no sense. I don't buy it.

Mighty Joe Young · Jul 25, 2015

While on the surface it would seem smarter to wait for the winter with Cueto

However ..
- back channel info may be encouraging Ben and Co. to think Cueto will sign a deal
- back channel info may also indicate Cueto will sign somewhere else (MFY for example) before hitting the market
- if they have decided Cueto is The Guy .. As opposed to Zimmerman etc. then it makes some sense - especially if the prospect price is manageable.

No way I'd do this unless you know for sure he'd sign a reasonable deal and the prospect price wasn't exhorbitant.

jscola85 · Jul 25, 2015

How much can the Reds realistically ask for Cueto when he's a 2-3 month rental? Particularly in light of all the other arms available right now, I don't see why he would command Swihart to acquire. Something like Owens plus Asuaje and a lotto ticket such as Yoan Aybar would seem to be a fair trade for a complete rental. Look at what Matt Garza went for - one legit upper minors prospect in Mike Olt, plus a couple of other lesser pieces.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jul 25, 2015

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
While on the surface it would seem smarter to wait for the winter with Cueto

However ..
- back channel info may be encouraging Ben and Co. to think Cueto will sign a deal
- back channel info may also indicate Cueto will sign somewhere else (MFY for example) before hitting the market
- if they have decided Cueto is The Guy .. As opposed to Zimmerman etc. then it makes some sense - especially if the prospect price is manageable.

No way I'd do this unless you know for sure he'd sign a reasonable deal and the prospect price wasn't exhorbitant.

Why would he sign a "reasonable deal" when he can have teams fighting for him in the off-season? Unless he has real concerns about his arm, that is.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jul 25, 2015

jscola85 said:
How much can the Reds realistically ask for Cueto when he's a 2-3 month rental? Particularly in light of all the other arms available right now, I don't see why he would command Swihart to acquire. Something like Owens plus Asuaje and a lotto ticket such as Yoan Aybar would seem to be a fair trade for a complete rental. Look at what Matt Garza went for - one legit upper minors prospect in Mike Olt, plus a couple of other lesser pieces.

There is no chance that Cueto would command Swihart to acquire. Swihart is the chip if they're really trying to open dialog for one of the young aces.

The X Man Cometh · Jul 25, 2015

BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
While on the surface it would seem smarter to wait for the winter with Cueto

However ..
- back channel info may be encouraging Ben and Co. to think Cueto will sign a deal
- back channel info may also indicate Cueto will sign somewhere else (MFY for example) before hitting the market
- if they have decided Cueto is The Guy .. As opposed to Zimmerman etc. then it makes some sense - especially if the prospect price is manageable.

No way I'd do this unless you know for sure he'd sign a reasonable deal and the prospect price wasn't exhorbitant.

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
Why would he sign a "reasonable deal" when he can have teams fighting for him in the off-season? Unless he has real concerns about his arm, that is.

And why would he choose this team, of all teams, to sign an under-market extension for?

NDame616 · Jul 25, 2015

The Red Sox print money and have a pretty deep pool of prospects to reach into. It behooves every single "selling" team out there to have the Red Sox "in" on their players.

It's the week before the trade deadline. It's silly season when it comes to leaks.

pdub · Jul 25, 2015

jscola85 said:
Pablo for Shields?

I'd do it in a heartbeat. Reasons why:

-Shields has a 3.77ERA so far. Let's assume it balloons up to 4.77 coming to the AL. I'd still take that for the #5 slot.
-Letting go of Sandoval creates flexibility. He stinks defensively but doesn't have the body to play somewhere else.
-Might allow us to play Hanley at 3B, then give Castillo or Bradley a chance. Infield defense would still need work but its not like Sandoval has been that great with the glove.
-I don't want Sandoval to become the next Ortiz-type player, in that the DH spot will be reserved for him. I'd like more flexibility once Ortiz retires.

Sandoval for Shields and about $10M to split the salary difference? I'd do it.

Rasputin · Jul 25, 2015

NDame616 said:
It's the week before the trade deadline. It's silly season when it comes to leaks.

I have come to the conclusion that every season is silly.

dcmissle · Jul 25, 2015

Rasputin said:
I have come to the conclusion that every season is silly.

Some more than others.

"He is close to Pedro Martinez ..."

Click.

I don't care if Gsmmo intimated as much.

Click.

Papelbon's Poutine · Jul 25, 2015

soxhop411 said:
Pedro connection?

The Tigers, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, and Red Sox are all-in on Cueto. He is close to Pedro Martinez, so the Red Sox have an advantage to lock him up if they acquire him. However, there are concerns about Cueto’s weight and his elbow. One contending team’s top evaluator pointed to his elbow when asked about Cueto.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/07/25/there-long-shopping-list-this-year-trade-deadline/7cd5HxpKDxX9zx30ibDu8J/story.html

So, Nick has the Tigers selling and buying rentals in the same breath? Yeah he's pulling shit out of his ass.

RedOctober3829 · Jul 25, 2015

Heyman

That may not be such a shock since Philly has long seen Hamels as the star of their sale -- though there have been suggestions the Phils have become more reasonable since Andy MacPhail came aboard. One person suggested, for instance, they are continuing to talk to the Dodgers and Red Sox while no longer insisting on Seager or Urias from LA, or Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart from Boston.

One rival GM said, "Hamels is basically worth what his contract is." Which doesn't sound like a big haul will be necessarily forthcoming.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25249253/inside-baseball-big-trade-storylines-involve-padres-tigers-hamels

Hank Scorpio · Jul 25, 2015

While Hamels may be worth "what his contract is", part of the consideration is that you'll be getting Hamels for three full seasons with a team option for a fourth, where the alternative might be having Cueto for six, seven, or even eight seasons.

I wouldn't gut the farm for Hamels, but there is some value in his contract being relatively short-term and low risk compared to what this year's FA crop might get.

E5 Yaz · Jul 25, 2015

Wouldn't the Pedro connection to Cueto be there in the offseason as well ... when they could try to sign him w/o giving up prospects?

nattysez · Jul 25, 2015

soxhop411 said:
The Tigers, Yankees, Dodgers, Astros, and Red Sox are all-in on Cueto. He is close to Pedro Martinez, so the Red Sox have an advantage to lock him up if they acquire him. However, there are concerns about Cueto’s weight and his elbow. One contending team’s top evaluator pointed to his elbow when asked about Cueto.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/07/25/there-long-shopping-list-this-year-trade-deadline/7cd5HxpKDxX9zx30ibDu8J/story.html

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 15m15 minutes ago
#Royals were close to acquiring Cueto from #Reds earlier tonight, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. Deal fell through.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 15m15 minutes ago
Sources indicate that the problem was that one of the players going from the #Royals to the #Reds for Cueto did not check out medically.

So Cafardo this morning lists 5 teams as "all in" on Cueto, and none of them is the team that almost got a deal done today. He has no credibility left. None.

E5 Yaz · Jul 25, 2015

nattysez said:
So Cafardo this morning lists 6 teams as "all in" on Cueto, and none of them is the team that almost got a deal done today. He has no credibility left. None.

5

MuzzyField · Jul 26, 2015

Papelbon's Poutine said:
So, Nick has the Tigers selling and buying rentals in the same breath? Yeah he's pulling shit out of his ass.

Nick has an everlasting shit supply to keep his ass busy.

NDame616 · Jul 26, 2015

Hank Scorpio said:
While Hamels may be worth "what his contract is", part of the consideration is that you'll be getting Hamels for three full seasons with a team option for a fourth, where the alternative might be having Cueto for six, seven, or even eight seasons.

I wouldn't gut the farm for Hamels, but there is some value in his contract being relatively short-term and low risk compared to what this year's FA crop might get.

But one GM will go crazy with Cueto's contract, so the choice is 4/$90M (including the option year) for Hamels or something like 8/$200M for Cueto

BosRedSox5 · Jul 26, 2015

NDame616 said:
But one GM will go crazy with Cueto's contract, so the choice is 4/$90M (including the option year) for Hamels or something like 8/$200M for Cueto

Would that be all that crazy? That seems to be the new normal now. The Nats got awfully creative with Scherzer. Maybe we try something like that when it comes to reeling in a big fish like Cueto. 8/$200 would likely include some differed years. We're paying Manny until he collects social security right?

nattysez · Jul 26, 2015

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 34m34 minutes ago
Sources: Momentum building toward Hamels trade. Offers have improved since no-hitter. Teams asking for less money, offering better players.

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 34m
34 minutes ago
The five teams with the most recent interest in Hamels: #Cubs, #Dodgers, #Rangers, #Yankees, #SFGiants. Not listed in any particular order.

Rosenthal doesn't have the Sox listed as one of the teams with "most recent interest" in Hamels as of this morning.

OCD SS · Jul 26, 2015

BosRedSox5 said:
Would that be all that crazy? That seems to be the new normal now. The Nats got awfully creative with Scherzer. Maybe we try something like that when it comes to reeling in a big fish like Cueto. 8/$200 would likely include some differed years. We're paying Manny until he collects social security right?

Normal isn't necessarily smart; it's just a rationale for paying the prices from inside an economic bubble rather than assessing them from the outside.

While the cost for players is always going up, I think the FO is looking at the hyper-inflationary cost of an "ace" as problematic when you factor in likely production ($/ WAR mapped vs the life of the contract) and potential risk of injury. Despite how this season has played out, I don't think it's likely that ownership is going to change tack and start signing contracts that will look right at home next to Dutch tulip costs.

Cueto is an interesting anomaly if this medicals really do look so bad that the Royals aren't willing to risk a trade for only half a season. Unless they think they can sign him long term, which tells me that Cueto himself isn't confident in his health and is looking to get his payday ASAP.

Mighty Joe Young · Jul 26, 2015

OCD SS said:
Normal isn't necessarily smart; it's just a rationale for paying the prices from inside an economic bubble rather than assessing them from the outside.
While the cost for players is always going up, I think the FO is looking at the hyper-inflationary cost of an "ace" as problematic when you factor in likely production ($/ WAR mapped vs the life of the contract) and potential risk of injury. Despite how this season has played out, I don't think it's likely that ownership is going to change tack and start signing contracts that will look right at home next to Dutch tulip costs.
Cueto is an interesting anomaly if this medicals really do look so bad that the Royals aren't willing to risk a trade for only half a season. Unless they think they can sign him long term, which tells me that Cueto himself isn't confident in his health and is looking to get his payday ASAP.

The Royals deal fell through because one of the KC prospect's medical didn't pass muster .. Not because of Cueto's health.

IpswichSox · Jul 26, 2015

nattysez said:
Rosenthal doesn't have the Sox listed as one of the teams with "most recent interest" in Hamels as of this morning.

Fantastic news.

Either use prospects to dislodge a Cashner- or Grey-type, or withdraw the presumption against long-term deals to pitchers >30, even aces. But you just can't do prospects and cash to pitchers >30. Hamels never made any sense.

benhogan · Jul 26, 2015

pdub said:
I'd do it in a heartbeat. Reasons why:

-Shields has a 3.77ERA so far. Let's assume it balloons up to 4.77 coming to the AL. I'd still take that for the #5 slot.
-Letting go of Sandoval creates flexibility. He stinks defensively but doesn't have the body to play somewhere else.
-Might allow us to play Hanley at 3B, then give Castillo or Bradley a chance. Infield defense would still need work but its not like Sandoval has been that great with the glove.
-I don't want Sandoval to become the next Ortiz-type player, in that the DH spot will be reserved for him. I'd like more flexibility once Ortiz retires.

Sandoval for Shields and about $10M to split the salary difference? I'd do it.

Agreed, Pablo for Shields and I'd toss in up to $20MM ($5MM/yr over next 4 years)

Brock Holt becomes our 3rd basemen. He has earned a shot to have a starting position and suspect he will work his ass off this off-season to become a decent glove at the corner (ala Xander). Look for a new super utility guy this off season.

Hanley gets the first base glove and gives it a shot the rest of the season.

Bradley gets another shot in RF (he's earned it this season. No sulking @AAA, just producing). Rusney gets some time in LF.

Go get Gray, don't care if it costs a combo of Swihart, Owens, Edro, Brian Johnson, Margot, Guerra. A's potentially in sell mode. If no Gray, then shake down the Indians for Kluber or Sale/Quintana from White Sox. Use the farm, stop being precious here.

Pay Cueto or Greinke. Rotation by committee was a failed experiment. We need an Ace, want an Alpha dog, t-shirts proclaiming Ace status is cute, but doesn't cut it for a $200MM payroll.

Vasquez/Hannigan catchers for 2016, want excellent defense from catcher. Maybe Vasquez can get some at bats at DH this season. Plays DH in winter ball.

See what we can get for Koji from a contender (saves $$$ to secure the Ace we need) Try Taz at closer and Kelly in high leverage situations. Barnes and Hembree get time.

DFA/trade Napoli, Victorino, Masterson. Time to cut bait, and use MLB time for guys that will be here in '16

2016 Dream rotation: Gray, Cueto, Clay, Shields, Porcello or Miley #5 or #6... Edro/Owens/Johnson #7/8

BosRedSox5 · Jul 26, 2015

OCD SS said:
Normal isn't necessarily smart; it's just a rationale for paying the prices from inside an economic bubble rather than assessing them from the outside.

While the cost for players is always going up, I think the FO is looking at the hyper-inflationary cost of an "ace" as problematic when you factor in likely production ($/ WAR mapped vs the life of the contract) and potential risk of injury. Despite how this season has played out, I don't think it's likely that ownership is going to change tack and start signing contracts that will look right at home next to Dutch tulip costs.

Cueto is an interesting anomaly if this medicals really do look so bad that the Royals aren't willing to risk a trade for only half a season. Unless they think they can sign him long term, which tells me that Cueto himself isn't confident in his health and is looking to get his payday ASAP.

I think the italicized portion is 100% right. Maybe you're on to something.

Maybe they're right to think that aces are inflated and not worth their value. Bumgarner, Lester, Cain, Carpenter, Cain again, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels... those are the "aces" from the last several WS winners. None was a Cy Young winner. They were healthy and relatively productive, but not eye poppingly so. Also, apart from CC (huge FA signing) and Carpenter (small FA signing that worked out in spades) they were all homegrown.

Is the team's approach to building a rotation right? Should they be looking for guys like Miley, Porcello, etc. who are young and seem to provide good value (via WAR and other metrics) to bolster their stable of homegrown pitchers? Is this approach viable... but some mistakes were made in 2014/2015? Or should they be looking to flex their big market muscle and sign proven star pitchers?

I would imagine that the problem most teams that commit big resources to aces is that there's little left over to build around them with. Pedro pretty famously had #2 pitchers like Bret Saberhagen, Mark Portugal, Jeff Fassero, and Hideo Nomo before Derek Lowe converted to SP and the team traded for Schilling. With the Red Sox though, we have one of the highest payrolls in baseball. The Yankees probably really regret the CC Sabathia deal, but: 1.) He was really, really good for the first 4 years and 2.) He's so big that I don't think he follows the typical career arc of pitchers over 30. 3.) He helped them win a championship and get to the playoffs a bunch of times since he was signed.

Barry Zito, Johan Santana, James Shields, etc. have shown that big pitcher contracts can be scary... but Theo Epstein decided that Jon Lester was worth 6/$155 and Ben and the trio decided he was worth $20 million less. Theo's proven to know what he's doing. He's a wildly successful baseball executive. If the Red Sox are making decisions that are perhaps justifiable from a business perspective, but save a little more than 3 million a year, are they really making the most of their money advantage?

swingin val · Jul 26, 2015

IpswichSox said:
Either use prospects to dislodge a Cashner- or Grey-type

These are two vastly different types though. Gray is two years younger, a vastly better pitcher, and is under team control until 2020. It would take a boatload more to acquire him over Cashner.

GaryPeters71 · Jul 26, 2015

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 2m2 minutes ago
Source: #Royals getting Cueto.

OCD SS · Jul 26, 2015

BosRedSox5 said:
Maybe they're right to think that aces are inflated and not worth their value. Bumgarner, Lester, Cain, Carpenter, Cain again, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels... those are the "aces" from the last several WS winners. None was a Cy Young winner. They were healthy and relatively productive, but not eye poppingly so. Also, apart from CC (huge FA signing) and Carpenter (small FA signing that worked out in spades) they were all homegrown.

Is the team's approach to building a rotation right? Should they be looking for guys like Miley, Porcello, etc. who are young and seem to provide good value (via WAR and other metrics) to bolster their stable of homegrown pitchers? Is this approach viable... but some mistakes were made in 2014/2015? Or should they be looking to flex their big market muscle and sign proven star pitchers?

The problem I see is that "flex their financial muscle" really seems to be synonymous with "flush a bunch of money down the toilet on obviously wasted years." It also seems like it's intended to just kick the can down he road; "flexibility" became the rallying cry after 2013, but it's been quickly forgotten once the team isn't as good, to be quickly replaced by spending on the top end of the FA SP market. Despite how last offseason's spending looks so far it looks like a more reasonably considered long term plan. But once it becomes SOP to just eat the unproductive ends of long deals you wind up with everyone clamoring to just keep doing that: the chant becomes that the team shouldn't have such a bad year with so high a payroll (conveniently ignoring that those backloaded deals on unproductive players is the reason the payroll is bloated).

TimScribble · Jul 26, 2015

Just to put an end cap on any RedSox Cueto chatter. (Not that there was much lately)

@Ken_Rosenthal: Source: #Royals getting Cueto

Hee Sox Choi · Jul 26, 2015

Royals acquired RHP Johnny Cueto and cash considerations from the Reds in exchange for LHPs Brandon Finnegan (top 50), John Lamb (good prospect doing well in AAA) and Cody Reed.

That would be like Henry Owens (top 50) + Brian Johnson (good prospect doing well in AAA) + a mediocre AA starter for 2 months of Cueto. No thanks.

jscola85 · Jul 26, 2015

Royals are in a position to take a gamble like that. Boston is not. End of story.

Al Zarilla · Jul 26, 2015

Texas, really (in on Hamels)? Red Sox, get out.

Yelling At Clouds · Jul 26, 2015

Al Zarilla said:
Texas, really (in on Hamels)? Red Sox, get out.

If Darvish comes back from the TJS next year, that could be a pretty decent rotation with those two and Chi Chi.

Yaz4Ever · Jul 26, 2015

soxhop411 said:
Pirates Interested In Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino
July 26th, 2015 at 5:50pm CST • By Zach Links
The Pirates have looked into Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter). Napoli hasn’t been successful at the plate lately but he has been decent defensively, Biertempfel notes.

Mlbtr

Please let this be true

Papelbon's Poutine · Jul 26, 2015

Sell! Sell! Sell!

I tend to consider Huntington one of the smarter GMe in the game so I doubt this, but even if they take 50% of salary for a cpl Low A flyers, do it.

mauidano · Jul 26, 2015

soxhop411 said:
Pirates Interested In Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino
July 26th, 2015 at 5:50pm CST • By Zach Links
The Pirates have looked into Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino, according to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (on Twitter). Napoli hasn’t been successful at the plate lately but he has been decent defensively, Biertempfel notes.

Mlbtr
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/pirates-interested-in-mike-napoli-shane-victorino.html

If someone wants Napoli, they can have him. I don't see this as a realistic trade. Will be shocked if either one of those guys gets moved. Bad numbers and injury prone? Stupid move.

MikeM · Jul 26, 2015

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Sell! Sell! Sell!

I tend to consider Huntington one of the smarter GMe in the game so I doubt this, but even if they take 50% of salary for a cpl Low A flyers, do it.

The opportunity value being opened up in their departure is worth more then anything Nap/Vic are going to give us the rest of the way.

You do that trade even if we are left paying 100% of the salary imo. Which would probably make a lot more sense from the Huntington perspective too.

plucy · Jul 26, 2015

mauidano said:
If someone wants Napoli, they can have him. I don't see this as a realistic trade. Will be shocked if either one of those guys gets moved. Bad numbers and injury prone? Stupid move.

Both could solidify a contender's bench. Vic has the D and base running, Nap can platoon and be a righty PH late game. Package deal to Pitt that will cost $3MM for the rest of the season and a reliever with options for next year seems reasonable. Anything the Sox can do to get under CBT seems worth it for another try next year.

BosRedSox5 · Jul 26, 2015

I feel like if someone calls about Mike Napoli, Ben has to try and play it all cool and not get all excited about dumping him on someone.

Nap's been one of my favorite players for the last two and a half years, but if someone is even willing to give us a C prospect for him, we need to jump on that.

ivanvamp · Jul 26, 2015

Napoli has been very bad at the plate this year but I think he'd be a potentially nice pickup for a contender.

Still has very good power some can be a late inning long ball threat as a PH.

Outstanding base runner.

Very good fielding 1b so he could be one of those double switch kind of guys in the NL.

Leadership and championship experience.

The Sox can't expect to get much for him but he could still be a valuable piece to a team still in the hunt.

Red(s)HawksFan · Jul 26, 2015

ivanvamp said:
Napoli has been very bad at the plate this year but I think he'd be a potentially nice pickup for a contender.

Still has very good power some can be a late inning long ball threat as a PH.

Outstanding base runner.

Very good fielding 1b so he could be one of those double switch kind of guys in the NL.

Leadership and championship experience.

The Sox can't expect to get much for him but he could still be a valuable piece to a team still in the hunt.

While Pedro Alvarez isn't having a lights out year, he has a 104 OPS+ so it's not like he's Mike Napoli at the plate...but he's been horrendous defensively, which is why the Pirates are shopping for 1B in the first place. Napoli could be a good complimentary bench player for them.

Granite Sox · Jul 26, 2015

I doubt there is a strong link, but Pittsburgh has been trying to upgrade on Pedro Alvarez for a while. Platoon Alvarez/Nap, or move Alvarez in a separate deal?*

*Nap would be an upgrade on Alvarez in the field, only.

Yelling At Clouds · Jul 26, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
While Pedro Alvarez isn't having a lights out year, he has a 104 OPS+ so it's not like he's Mike Napoli at the plate...but he's been horrendous defensively, which is why the Pirates are shopping for 1B in the first place. Napoli could be a good complimentary bench player for them.

Napoli also still has a decent line against LHP, while Alvarez is terrible against them. Looks like a good fit to me.

alwyn96 · Jul 26, 2015

plucy said:
Both could solidify a contender's bench. Vic has the D and base running, Nap can platoon and be a righty PH late game. Package deal to Pitt that will cost $3MM for the rest of the season and a reliever with options for next year seems reasonable. Anything the Sox can do to get under CBT seems worth it for another try next year.

Yeah, if a team has little bench to speak of, needs good defense, solid bats v. LHP and good clubhouse presence, I would imagine the Red Sox would hand those guys over for basically nothing.

EDIT: Good lord, everyone said exactly the same thing as me before I said it. Sorry y'all.

BosRedSox5 · Jul 26, 2015

Dick Pole Upside said:
*Nap would be an upgrade on Alvarez in the field, only.

Is that really true? Historically Nap has been a lot better and the last two weeks Napoli has shown some signs of turning it around.

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