RealFantasy Pigskin 2013: Draft and Discussion

SeoulSoxFan

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soxfan121 said:
Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson? Are you people serious!?!
 
Karachi should not be able to tab the 2nd or 3rd best QB in the whole league with pick #8 but you people made it happen. Great job on that.
 
JIHAD!
 
Indeed. Russell over your Brady the Whiny too.
 
Some cherry-picked stats (league standing in parenthesis):
  • Better Yds/Pass Att: 7.9 (4) vs 7.6 (8)
  • Better Yds/Pass Cmp: 12.4 (5) vs 12.0 (10)
  • Better Passer Rating: 100 (4) vs 98.7 (6)
  • Better Pass Completion %: 64.1% (7) vs 63.0% (10)
  • Better Passing TD %: 6.6% (2) vs 5.3% (6)
  • More Game-Winning Drives : 5 (3) vs 2 (n/a)
  • More Comebacks: 4 (3) vs 2 (n/a)
11 years younger, more athletic by far, only 2 more INTs than Brady (10 vs 8), and did I say 11 years younger?
 

JerBear

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Meh, the younger of the 2 is still 6 years older.  It's too early in the game to try and draft a win right now team.  I'm planning on building a competitive team with a great window starting in 2-4 years.  Neither of the other big names fit that plan.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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SeoulSoxFan said:
 
If SM took Wilson, I would have picked Kap for sure.
 
Thank you for taking JJ Watt with the 4th pick BTW ;) I think even the best linemen have a span of 4-5 years of being great (2-3 years of total domination -- look at JPP and Ware, even Haynesworth) and look where Schaub gets you in the playoffs. 
 
I thought Watt would have been the 1st or 2nd non-QB to be picked, but would have been at 7-12 range. 
Not sure what point you're trying to make. How far did Wilson get in the playoffs? Would he have even sniffed the playoffs without the 'Hawks D?
 

Turrable

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Indeed, it has been a tumultuous offseason. Many feared that when I, Shahid Khan, took over this pathetic franchise, it was with dastardly ulterior motives. Those people were ridiculed, but now, they have reaped my wrath. Or at least, I thought they had. I assumed that moving an American football team to the holy and pious motherland of Pakistan would cause unfettered outrage, as no longer will your live viewing experience contain sullen cheerleading whores or abominations unto Allah such as the "hot dog." I definitely thought the heat and our people's universal disgust towards Americans would do the trick. But it turns out that everybody is pretty okay with the move, as not even the most strident Jacksonville supporter can argue it's city's superiority over, well, anywhere. The most passionate protest came from this guy:

 
Who we've appointed to defensive coordinator.
 
As for our pick, well, you always do make it so easy America. Here I was expecting to settle for some option quarterback with one-and-a-half knees or a grown man who's umbilical cord hangs out beneath his jersey, but as usual in your ignorance has gotten the best of you. With the 8th overall pick in the draft, the Karachi Jaguars select:
 
 


 
Peyton Williams Manning, QB
 
Yes, your former American hero is the new face of the franchise that will bring once unheard of glory to Pakistan. Some say he is too old; they said the same of Bin Laden, but we got a good ten years out of him.
 
In additional news, my appeal to the Pakistani government to lengthen our National Anthem to 15 minutes has been approved, and your commissioner has commented on claims of our 120 degree temperatures creating a player safety hazard by noting that he "could give a shit."
 
Go Jags!
 

soxfan121

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Turrable said:
Who we've appointed to defensive coordinator.
 
Good hire. Peyton v. Brady...this time with nuclear weapons!
 
ETA: Just scrolled up to see the Seoul Steelers post....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHHA. Now that's out of the way. 
 
I mean...BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Sorry, that last one slipped out. Really, I'll try to control my hilarity better in the future. Russell Wilson ahead of two HOF'ers. Brilliant.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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soxfan121 said:
 
ETA: Just scrolled up to see the Seoul Steelers post....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHHA. Now that's out of the way. 
 
I mean...BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Sorry, that last one slipped out. Really, I'll try to control my hilarity better in the future. Russell Wilson ahead of two HOF'ers. Brilliant.
Holy shit, I didn't know Tannenbaum had a SoSH account! Seriously, how sad are you that Favre isn't available for this draft?
 

soxfan121

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It's not my lack of talent evaluation skills on display here. You're the guy who took Russell Wilson in the top 6. 
 

SeoulSoxFan

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soxfan121 said:
It's not my lack of talent evaluation skills on display here. You're the guy who took Russell Wilson in the top 6. 
Happily so!

If the draft is for 2013-2016 only, you may laugh your way to the HoF. Otherwise, It's the group that includes Luck, Rodgers, Kaep, Wilson etc. before the geezers you adore.

Take your 35+ QBs with decidely lesser talent to pick from come round 2. Hell, you think Manning should have gone in top 3. That's not a matter of talent evaluation, it's looking at the draft with a pretty short term view.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Turrable said:
Indeed, it has been a tumultuous offseason. Many feared that when I, Shahid Khan, took over this pathetic franchise, it was with dastardly ulterior motives. Those people were ridiculed, but now, they have reaped my wrath. Or at least, I thought they had. I assumed that moving an American football team to the holy and pious motherland of Pakistan would cause unfettered outrage, as no longer will your live viewing experience contain sullen cheerleading whores or abominations unto Allah such as the "hot dog." I definitely thought the heat and our people's universal disgust towards Americans would do the trick. But it turns out that everybody is pretty okay with the move, as not even the most strident Jacksonville supporter can argue it's city's superiority over, well, anywhere. The most passionate protest came from this guy:
 
Talking about Manning,,,  :bravo:  for a hilarious post. Well done, Mr. Khan.
 

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soxfan121 said:
 
Good hire. Peyton v. Brady...this time with nuclear weapons!
 
ETA: Just scrolled up to see the Seoul Steelers post....HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAHAHAHAHAHHA. Now that's out of the way. 
 
I mean...BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Sorry, that last one slipped out. Really, I'll try to control my hilarity better in the future. Russell Wilson ahead of two HOF'ers. Brilliant.
Again I was under the impression this exercise was what we make of it. If I wanted a guy with 2 more years left on his dammed shoulder and glued on neck I would have gone that route. I am going long.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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bsj said:
Again I was under the impression this exercise was what we make of it. If I wanted a guy with 2 more years left on his dammed shoulder and glued on neck I would have gone that route. I am going long.
 
Absolutely. As much as one can make sense for picking Brady/Manning, so can Luck/WIlson. Now, if you're debating Wilson vs. Kaep or RGIII, that's a separate issue and to me, a much more interesting one. 
 

Turrable

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bsj said:
Again I was under the impression this exercise was what we make of it. If I wanted a guy with 2 more years left on his dammed shoulder and glued on neck I would have gone that route. I am going long.
 

 
Don't hate the playa.
 

ilol@u

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Does anybody think Matt Ryan/Kapernick/Russel Wilson will ever be an elite QB? The last decade+ shows that most of the time you need a HOF QB in order to win a Superbowl (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Eli Manning)
 
Crazy. But whatever. I love the JJ Watt pick though. 
 

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ilol@u said:
Does anybody think Matt Ryan/Kapernick/Russel Wilson will ever be an elite QB? The last decade+ shows that most of the time you need a HOF QB in order to win a Superbowl (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Eli Manning)
 
Crazy. But whatever. I love the JJ Watt pick though. 
It's not really crazy. The QB's from that group with the best resumes (Brady and Manning) are really old and banged up, and Ryan, Kaepernick and Wilson stack up pretty well with most of the other guys (setting aside Rodgers, who wasn't available when they were picked) at similar ages.
 

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ilol@u said:
Does anybody think Matt Ryan/Kapernick/Russel Wilson will ever be an elite QB? The last decade+ shows that most of the time you need a HOF QB in order to win a Superbowl (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Eli Manning)
 
Crazy. But whatever. I love the JJ Watt pick though. 
Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson were both tied as the 5th best QB in the league this year according to PFF and Kapernick was one good throw from winning the Super Bowl and SB MVP.  The only question is can they continue what they did this season, and if so there is no question that they would be elite at the position.  
 

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Well, I basically saw two primary choices here; one was "go for it now" type, the other was the most impressive rookie in the league. Unfortunately, the latter would not be around at this point in the draft if not for a major knee injury, so for all that impressiveness there is a large element of risk. Nonetheless, with this guy under center this team can contend as soon as he's healthy, and for a long long time thereafter, so I'm going to roll the dice and go with:
Robert Griffin III QB
 

soxfan121

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Happily so!

If the draft is for 2013-2016 only, you may laugh your way to the HoF. Otherwise, It's the group that includes Luck, Rodgers, Kaep, Wilson etc. before the geezers you adore.

Take your 35+ QBs with decidely lesser talent to pick from come round 2. Hell, you think Manning should have gone in top 3. That's not a matter of talent evaluation, it's looking at the draft with a pretty short term view.
 
 
Wrong. DoDM's admonishment on talking about guys before they are drafted has kept me from explicitly stating the name but I was taking about the OTHER guy. The OTHER guy isn't as old, doesn't have the same injury history and isn't showing signs of age, yet. The OTHER guy owns records, a Super Bowl title and has proven himself "elite". 
 
In any case, drafting for 2016-2020 is stupid - half your picks will be injured/ineffective/out-of-the-league by that point. It's too long a time frame, given the average length of an NFL career. The QBs taken with a "long window" in mind won't be playing with their current teammates by the time the window opens. Kaepernick, for example, will have an almost entirely new supporting cast within five years (excepting 2 or 3 OL and maybe Crabtree). Is he a beneficiary of a strong supporting cast? Undoubtedly - his OL is a major component of why he was picked. Except - you don't get his OL, here. Nor Frank Gore or Vernon Davis. All you get is a first-year starter who looked mighty impressive in his first go-around the league and rode a stellar TEAM to a SB berth. Lots of potential to be great or to be the next Sanchize. 
 
IMO, Russell Wilson is the next Sanchize. Rode a good team and some incredible luck to an unbelievable season. Key word there is "unbelievable" as literally nothing and nobody thought is was possible before the season. Yay for him. He's a short guy with less than ideal accuracy who can run around a little bit until some DL crushes some body part. If Russell Wilson is a starter in the NFL five years from now, I'll be shocked. Best case scenario is that he's a poor man's Mike Vick - capable of magic but inconsistent. Worst case scenario, he's Tavaris Jackson. When the downside on a pick is Tavaris Jackson, and it's pick #6 overall, it's a bad pick. 
 
ilol@u said:
Does anybody think Matt Ryan/Kapernick/Russel Wilson will ever be an elite QB? The last decade+ shows that most of the time you need a HOF QB in order to win a Superbowl (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Eli Manning)
 
Crazy. But whatever. I love the JJ Watt pick though. 
 
I think Kaepernick might develop into an "elite" QB, although I do wonder if he has the touch required to be super-accurate; his cannon of an arm makes hard throws look easy and easy throws look like 120 mph sliders. 
 
Wilson has a smaller chance at "elite" than does Kaepernick due to his size (see what I did there?!). Matt Ryan is a solid, starting NFL QB who has shown zero chance of becoming "elite". He is blessed with great WR though so don't let than confuse you. 
 
SPDougie said:
Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson were both tied as the 5th best QB in the league this year according to PFF and Kapernick was one good throw from winning the Super Bowl and SB MVP.  The only question is can they continue what they did this season, and if so there is no question that they would be elite at the position.  
 
There's lots of question. This word "elite" - it does not mean what you think it means if you're applying it to two rookies and a guy who has been very pedestrian until last season.
 
Russell Wilson III QB
 
 
Hilarious.
 

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Scoops Bolling said:
Russell Wilson III QB
We can hybrid players now? Damn, I should've went with Peyton Tebow... It's alright Scoops, its not like you can see the back of his jersey in the picture!
 

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soxfan121 said:
Wrong. DoDM's admonishment on talking about guys before they are drafted has kept me from explicitly stating the name but I was taking about the OTHER guy. The OTHER guy isn't as old, doesn't have the same injury history and isn't showing signs of age, yet. The OTHER guy owns records, a Super Bowl title and has proven himself "elite". 
 
In any case, drafting for 2016-2020 is stupid - half your picks will be injured/ineffective/out-of-the-league by that point. It's too long a time frame, given the average length of an NFL career. The QBs taken with a "long window" in mind won't be playing with their current teammates by the time the window opens. Kaepernick, for example, will have an almost entirely new supporting cast within five years (excepting 2 or 3 OL and maybe Crabtree). Is he a beneficiary of a strong supporting cast? Undoubtedly - his OL is a major component of why he was picked. Except - you don't get his OL, here. Nor Frank Gore or Vernon Davis. All you get is a first-year starter who looked mighty impressive in his first go-around the league and rode a stellar TEAM to a SB berth. Lots of potential to be great or to be the next Sanchize. 
 
IMO, Russell Wilson is the next Sanchize. Rode a good team and some incredible luck to an unbelievable season. Key word there is "unbelievable" as literally nothing and nobody thought is was possible before the season. Yay for him. He's a short guy with less than ideal accuracy who can run around a little bit until some DL crushes some body part. If Russell Wilson is a starter in the NFL five years from now, I'll be shocked. Best case scenario is that he's a poor man's Mike Vick - capable of magic but inconsistent. Worst case scenario, he's Tavaris Jackson. When the downside on a pick is Tavaris Jackson, and it's pick #6 overall, it's a bad pick. 
 
 
I think Kaepernick might develop into an "elite" QB, although I do wonder if he has the touch required to be super-accurate; his cannon of an arm makes hard throws look easy and easy throws look like 120 mph sliders. 
 
Wilson has a smaller chance at "elite" than does Kaepernick due to his size (see what I did there?!). Matt Ryan is a solid, starting NFL QB who has shown zero chance of becoming "elite". He is blessed with great WR though so don't let than confuse you. 
 
 
There's lots of question. This word "elite" - it does not mean what you think it means if you're applying it to two rookies and a guy who has been very pedestrian until last season.
 
 
 
Hilarious.
Soxfan, you seriously think there is a significant chance Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick turn into Mark Sanchez? Lol. I'm not saying either guy is necessarily going to ascend to elite/HOF status, but I have a feeling it's going to be fun to revisit this extended exhibition of self-satisfaction a few years from now.
 
Edit: Just some stats to back this up--both guys (Kaep's 2012-13 is a pretty small sample of course) put up a better Y/A one whole yard or better than Sanchez's in his best year, and had a completion percentage at least 3 points better than Sanchez's best year.
 

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soxfan121 said:
 
 
Wrong. DoDM's admonishment on talking about guys before they are drafted has kept me from explicitly stating the name but I was taking about the OTHER guy. The OTHER guy isn't as old, doesn't have the same injury history and isn't showing signs of age, yet. The OTHER guy owns records, a Super Bowl title and has proven himself "elite". 
 
In any case, drafting for 2016-2020 is stupid - half your picks will be injured/ineffective/out-of-the-league by that point. It's too long a time frame, given the average length of an NFL career. The QBs taken with a "long window" in mind won't be playing with their current teammates by the time the window opens. Kaepernick, for example, will have an almost entirely new supporting cast within five years (excepting 2 or 3 OL and maybe Crabtree). Is he a beneficiary of a strong supporting cast? Undoubtedly - his OL is a major component of why he was picked. Except - you don't get his OL, here. Nor Frank Gore or Vernon Davis. All you get is a first-year starter who looked mighty impressive in his first go-around the league and rode a stellar TEAM to a SB berth. Lots of potential to be great or to be the next Sanchize
 
 
 
Hilarious.
Not sure if you view Luck the same, but regardless, I disagree that long term drafting is stupid. I think that it is a viable strategy of it is adhered to. I want most of my players younger than 27 so that they will be around for a while. A team can absolutely be assembled for the long haul. Stupid would be putting a team of aging vets around a 23 yo centerpiece. That I will agree with.
 

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i'll post in a bit more detail later, but that last response by sf121 was comedy of the highest order. Either he's trolling or has absolutely no idea about Wilson's season, or for that matter, Sanchez' rookie year.

Go look it up. I dare you to make any sane case that after year 1, Wilson resembles Sanchize. Oh this will be fun.
 

soxfan121

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bsj said:
Not sure if you view Luck the same, but regardless, I disagree that long term drafting is stupid. I think that it is a viable strategy of it is adhered to. I want most of my players younger than 27 so that they will be around for a while. A team can absolutely be assembled for the long haul. Stupid would be putting a team of aging vets around a 23 yo centerpiece. That I will agree with.
 
At any position other than QB, I want players under 27 because they are likely to be active and productive 3-5 seasons from now. Aside from Ray Lewis, who's active and productive into their mid-30s in the NFL? It's a short list. 
 
If you're picking 23 year olds with limited or no NFL resumes, it's a risk. If you're picking anyone over 27, it's an injury risk. NFL careers are just not very long, especially when compared to MLB or NHL or NBA careers. The risk of injury is high, the physical demands are high, the competition for jobs is high. I believe any "long haul" in the NFL is a maximum of 5 seasons. Past that, it's nearly impossible to identify guys who will playing at the same performance level. Unfortunately, this point is somewhat undermined by the ridiculous "Pro Bowl" designations that are doled out by peers (Jeff Saturday, anyone?) and distort the truly short window of effectiveness for most NFL players. 
 
I think you can draft Kaepernick and surround him with similar-aged talent, wait 5 years and need to find replacements for that supporting cast. As a Patriots fan, there have been (by my count) 5 different skill position supporting casts in the Brady Era (Brown-Patten-Smith, Brown-Givens-Dillon, Caldwell-Watson-Maroney, Moss-Welker-BJGE, Welker-Gronk-Ridley) and about 25 different OL contributors (with Light being the one mainstay, and he's gone now) and one defensive teammate who has last from the end of the Brown-Givens-Dillon Era (Wilfork). And that's the roster of the best team in the league through that stretch (record-wise). The supporting cast changes constantly and the 3-5 year window of "prime" for these supporting cast members is consistent. 
 
Assuming any player picked, other than QB, to be productive and healthy in 4-6 years when "the window opens" is poor strategy AND dreadfully unrealistic unless you are or are related to Marty Hurney. 
 

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ilol@u said:
Does anybody think Matt Ryan/Kapernick/Russel Wilson will ever be an elite QB? The last decade+ shows that most of the time you need a HOF QB in order to win a Superbowl (Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers, Eli Manning)
 
Crazy. But whatever. I love the JJ Watt pick though. 
I really don't think it's fair to group Ryan with Kaepernick and Wilson. Ryan has played at a high level for a few years now, those other two and Luck included still need to prove they can do it over the course of a few years. FWIW I thought they went way to high as well , people putting a lot of stock in a small sample size(Kaepernick especially) but I took Phillp Rivers 3rd last time so what do I know.
 

soxfan121

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SeoulSoxFan said:
i'll post in a bit more detail later, but that last response by sf121 was comedy of the highest order. Either he's trolling or has absolutely no idea about Wilson's season, or for that matter, Sanchez' rookie year.

Go look it up. I dare you to make any sane case that after year 1, Wilson resembles Sanchize. Oh this will be fun.
 
Defensively mature team with a defensively oriented coach? Check.
Competent running game and game plans that emphasize the run? Check.
Unexpected regular season/playoff success that drives media interest in the team? Check. 
 
If you're gonna dazzle us with stats, please adjust for context (i.e. the increased passing rates now v. then) and for the Cardinals game, ok? Cause context is important. 
 
I'll have more to say about this when someone takes the OTHER guy, so I can make THAT case. Which won't be pretty for Mr. Wilson. Because that's the point - Wilson at 6 over the OTHER options available is a bad pick. Mostly because Wilson, a 3rd round pick that every NFL GM passed on twice, is as much "hopes & dreams" as he is actually productive. I suppose if you think a 5'11" QB who runs well and throws OK is a good long term prospect, there's nothing I can say that will dissuade your from that opinion. I think Wilson's high water mark was 2012 and that, like Sanchez before him, the potential he flashed will be fleeting. I think that if this were 2009 and someone had take Mark Sanchez 6th overall, that pick would deserve to be questioned and mocked endlessly. 
 

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soxfan121 said:
I think you can draft Kaepernick and surround him with similar-aged talent, wait 5 years and need to find replacements for that supporting cast. As a Patriots fan, there have been (by my count) 5 different skill position supporting casts in the Brady Era (Brown-Patten-Smith, Brown-Givens-Dillon, Caldwell-Watson-Maroney, Moss-Welker-BJGE, Welker-Gronk-Ridley) and about 25 different OL contributors (with Light being the one mainstay, and he's gone now) and one defensive teammate who has last from the end of the Brown-Givens-Dillon Era (Wilfork). And that's the roster of the best team in the league through that stretch (record-wise). The supporting cast changes constantly and the 3-5 year window of "prime" for these supporting cast members is consistent. 
But this is exactly why it's awesome to have a young QB. If he's great for 10, 12, 15 years you can build three or four different teams in that span and have a bunch of chances to win it all. You can't say that about any other position.
 
I think this is a tough, interesting year to take QBs. Brady, Manning are old; Luck, Kaepernick, Wilson, RGIII are young and unproven, and guys like Matt Ryan don't seem to have the upside of either of these groups. Rodgers is IMO the only "best of both worlds" QB, and it's not like he doesn't have blemishes (sacks, concussions).
 
By the way, you should peruse these at your leisure:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SancMa00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsRu00.htm
 

MarcSullivaFan

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I don't get the criticism of taking the young QBs early.  With respect to Wilson, he had one of the all-time great rookie seasons by a QB.  I don't think there's much historical precedent for a quarterback to play at that high of a level so early in his career and then suddenly bottom out.  Palmer is one example, I suppose, but that's pretty clearly injury-related.
 
The comparison to Sanchez is baseless. Sanchez was awful his rookie season and then got hot for a couple games in the playoffs.  Wilson was excellent during the regular season and the post-season.   
 

soxfan121

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Super Nomario said:
But this is exactly why it's awesome to have a young QB. If he's great for 10, 12, 15 years you can build three or four different teams in that span and have a bunch of chances to win it all. You can't say that about any other position.
 
I think this is a tough, interesting year to take QBs. Brady, Manning are old; Luck, Kaepernick, Wilson, RGIII are young and unproven, and guys like Matt Ryan don't seem to have the upside of either of these groups. Rodgers is IMO the only "best of both worlds" QB, and it's not like he doesn't have blemishes (sacks, concussions).
 
By the way, you should peruse these at your leisure:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SancMa00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WilsRu00.htm
 
Hey, if this weren't an every-coupla-years exercise, you'd have won the argument. If this is a real, keep-your-picks-forever draft then Kaepernick is a better pick than Brady for exactly that reason. 
 
But it's not. Or, as BSJ keeps pointing out, it could be. Or it could be a 3-year exercise that'll get repeated again in a few seasons and it'll be fun to see where guys go then v. now. 
 
To be super-duper clear, I'm pissing all over the Russell Wilson pick because of the OTHER options on the board. I acknowledge that there's a chance Wilson's actually good - I don't think so, for reasons I may or may not have explained clearly. I think it's more likely that his success (and stats) this season were the product of the schedule (that Cardinals game skews the already small sample), the strengths of the team (i.e. the defense and running game) and the lack of film on Wilson. I think a guy who runs as much as he does is a bigger injury risk than (for example, Matt Ryan) and that his size is a legit concern. I wouldn't have considered him at 6, certainly not over Griffin3 (even with the knee injury) and absolutely NOT before the OTHER guy.
 

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soxfan121 said:
Defensively mature team with a defensively oriented coach? Check.
Competent running game and game plans that emphasize the run? Check.
Unexpected regular season/playoff success that drives media interest in the team? Check. 
 
If you're gonna dazzle us with stats, please adjust for context (i.e. the increased passing rates now v. then) and for the Cardinals game, ok? Cause context is important. 
Just keep digging that hole for yourself man. Would love to hear the explanation for how "increased passing rates now v. then" play into the disparities between Wilson and Sanchez's Y/A and completion percentages.
 

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soxfan121 said:
Defensively mature team with a defensively oriented coach? Check.
Competent running game and game plans that emphasize the run? Check.
Unexpected regular season/playoff success that drives media interest in the team? Check. 
Wait, this is an elaborate Tebow troll, isn't it?
soxfan121 said:
If you're gonna dazzle us with stats, please adjust for context (i.e. the increased passing rates now v. then) and for the Cardinals game, ok? Cause context is important. 
The increased passing rates between Russell Wilson's age-24 season (2012) and Mark Sanchez' (2010)? 
 

soxfan121

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Super Nomario said:
Wait, this is an elaborate Tebow troll, isn't it?
 
Sort of. This is what happens when the dog needs to go out at 5:30 in the morning in three feet of snow. 
 

DanoooME

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IMO, Russell Wilson is the next Sanchize. Rode a good team and some incredible luck to an unbelievable season. Key word there is "unbelievable" as literally nothing and nobody thought is was possible before the season. Yay for him. He's a short guy with less than ideal accuracy who can run around a little bit until some DL crushes some body part. If Russell Wilson is a starter in the NFL five years from now, I'll be shocked. Best case scenario is that he's a poor man's Mike Vick - capable of magic but inconsistent. Worst case scenario, he's Tavaris Jackson. When the downside on a pick is Tavaris Jackson, and it's pick #6 overall, it's a bad pick. 
 
 
 
Did you even look at one stat before you made this decision?  Especially the part in bold.
 
Wilson Completion Percentage 2012 - 64.1% (8th in the NFL)
Sanchez Completion Percentages 2009-2012 - 53.8% (29th), 54.8% (29th), 56.7% (28th), 54.3% (30th)
 
He also doesn't run around like a mad man trying to get extra yards on every play.  He's smart enough to slide/get out of bounds.
 
He's one of the smartest players in football, so I see him having a nice long career in the NFL.  Unlike Sanchez.
 
soxfan121 said:
Defensively mature team with a defensively oriented coach? Check.
Competent running game and game plans that emphasize the run? Check.
Unexpected regular season/playoff success that drives media interest in the team? Check. 
 
If you're gonna dazzle us with stats, please adjust for context (i.e. the increased passing rates now v. then) and for the Cardinals game, ok? Cause context is important. 
 
I'll have more to say about this when someone takes the OTHER guy, so I can make THAT case. Which won't be pretty for Mr. Wilson. Because that's the point - Wilson at 6 over the OTHER options available is a bad pick. Mostly because Wilson, a 3rd round pick that every NFL GM passed on twice, is as much "hopes & dreams" as he is actually productive. I suppose if you think a 5'11" QB who runs well and throws OK is a good long term prospect, there's nothing I can say that will dissuade your from that opinion. I think Wilson's high water mark was 2012 and that, like Sanchez before him, the potential he flashed will be fleeting. I think that if this were 2009 and someone had take Mark Sanchez 6th overall, that pick would deserve to be questioned and mocked endlessly. 
 
Once again, Mr. No Homework, you show your ignorance.
 
I assume you are referring to the 58-0 Arizona blowout that "requires adjustment", since the first Arizona game was a loss in the first game of the year and his 3rd worst effort.  His stats for the 58-0 game.
 
7-13, 148 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.  3 rushes, 12 yards.  How does that game skew his stats again?
 
Other people have made the points about increased passing rates, so I won't address that again.
 
soxfan121 said:
Hey, if this weren't an every-coupla-years exercise, you'd have won the argument. If this is a real, keep-your-picks-forever draft then Kaepernick is a better pick than Brady for exactly that reason. 
 
But it's not. Or, as BSJ keeps pointing out, it could be. Or it could be a 3-year exercise that'll get repeated again in a few seasons and it'll be fun to see where guys go then v. now. 
 
To be super-duper clear, I'm pissing all over the Russell Wilson pick because of the OTHER options on the board. I acknowledge that there's a chance Wilson's actually good - I don't think so, for reasons I may or may not have explained clearly. I think it's more likely that his success (and stats) this season were the product of the schedule (that Cardinals game skews the already small sample), the strengths of the team (i.e. the defense and running game) and the lack of film on Wilson. I think a guy who runs as much as he does is a bigger injury risk than (for example, Matt Ryan) and that his size is a legit concern. I wouldn't have considered him at 6, certainly not over Griffin3 (even with the knee injury) and absolutely NOT before the OTHER guy.
 
I might have picked him at #6 because I'm a Seahawks fan and love his game, but he's definitely a top 15 pick and you're foolish to see otherwise.  I think you see 5'11" QB picked in the 3rd round and automatically assume he'll never be anything.  Tom Brady was selected in the 6th round, shouldn't he have sucked?  Granted he's bigger, but he wasn't much of anything coming out of college at that time, otherwise he would have been a first round pick, right?
 
I see your point about it being a 3 year exercise and therefore, unless it's Ray Lewis or Ed Reed or someone else on the verge of retirement, this should be more of a "look at today" exercise than the baseball draft is.  But different people have different philosophies and that's what makes this fun.  Otherwise, it would be a really boring exercise.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Maybe the more interesting comp, in terms of team context not playing style, is Roethlisberger, who also had a great rookie year playing on a team with a strong running game, a fantastic defense, ans coaches who made his life easy. Ben has obviously gone on to a very successful career but he's also had the advantage of playing on great teams and nobody would confuse him with a truly elite QB a la Brady, Rodgers, or Manning.

I doubt Wilson or Kaepernick bust but I think nice careers as upper tier starters is massively more likely than elite level. It's just incredibly rare for anybody to be that good.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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soxfan121 said:
Defensively mature team with a defensively oriented coach? Check.
Competent running game and game plans that emphasize the run? Check.
Unexpected regular season/playoff success that drives media interest in the team? Check. 
 
If you're gonna dazzle us with stats, please adjust for context (i.e. the increased passing rates now v. then) and for the Cardinals game, ok? Cause context is important. 
 
BbtL isn't known for a lot of stat-driven analysis, but even so this is pretty spectacularly baseless.
 
You do realize that you're actually not comparing Sanchez vs. Wilson in any of the points above, right?
You do realize you got this ball rolling by projecting Wilson's career to follow Sanchez' trajectory, right?
 
As SM posted, compare the year 1 performance for Wilson and Sanchez on a stat by stat basis (now that you're "adjustment" theory is blown to bits thanks to DanooME), and make a single case why your opinion should have any merit. 
 
As for size, exactly what about the size that prevented Wilson from having one of the greatest rookie campaigns ever? Or the argument that Wilson not "accurate", how about this fun little exercise borrowing your own words:
 
As a rookie, both player A & B played for a:
  • "Defensively mature team with a defensively oriented coach - Check"
  • "Competent running game and game plans that emphasize the run - Check"
  • "Unexpected regular season/playoff success that drives media interest in the team - Check"
And had this rookie campaign:
  • Player A: 413-264 Att-Cmp / 63.9% Cmp / 18TD-12INT / 4.4% TD rate / 2.9% INT rate / 86.5 rating / 6.4 Y/A
  • Player B: 393-252 Att-Cmp / 64.1% Cmp / 26TD-10INT / 6.6% TD rate / 2.5% INT rate / 100.0 rating / 7.9 Y/A
Well, lookie here. Playing for another defensively minded team with better running (13th in the league) than passing game (22nd in the league), your player A actually had more attempts than my player B, with worse stats all around.
 
I'm sure you figured this out already, but player A is Brady, and B is Wilson. 
 
Now, don't like comparing 2001 pre-chuck rule days with the 2012 open offense ones? TB led a 10th passing DVOA in 2001, while RW led a 4th passing DVOA. 
 
How about looking at just the QBs? Peeking at 2012 DYAR says RW ranked 8th, higher than any other rookie (Kaeps at 9th, RGIII at 11th, and Luck at 19th). In 2001, Brady ranked 13th, ironically, behind another midget Doug Flutie at 11th. 
 
Now, Is Brady a better player Wilson right now? Absolutely. Does any of these stats tell us Wilson will win a SB, MVP, get into the Seahawks HoF nevermind the NFL HoF? No. 
 
But is it a "laughable" pick? Hell no. Is Wilson Sanchize II? Now that's truly a baseless proposition to say the least.
 
I think Wilson will give me a more than competent play for the next 3 years (i.e., efficient passing with ability to escape the rush and not turn the ball over), with 7+ prime years left after that, while Brady is already on a (slight but sure decline), and you'll need to find a replacement (if you can) in year 4 or earlier.
 
I'll spend those picks (and dollars) not spent on a Brady replacement to continue to turn over the roster and bring a stream of good players to surround Wilson. 
 

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soxfan121 said:
At any position other than QB, I want players under 27 because they are likely to be active and productive 3-5 seasons from now. Aside from Ray Lewis, who's active and productive into their mid-30s in the NFL? It's a short list. 
 
If you're picking 23 year olds with limited or no NFL resumes, it's a risk. If you're picking anyone over 27, it's an injury risk. NFL careers are just not very long, especially when compared to MLB or NHL or NBA careers. The risk of injury is high, the physical demands are high, the competition for jobs is high. I believe any "long haul" in the NFL is a maximum of 5 seasons. Past that, it's nearly impossible to identify guys who will playing at the same performance level. Unfortunately, this point is somewhat undermined by the ridiculous "Pro Bowl" designations that are doled out by peers (Jeff Saturday, anyone?) and distort the truly short window of effectiveness for most NFL players. 
 
I think you can draft Kaepernick and surround him with similar-aged talent, wait 5 years and need to find replacements for that supporting cast. As a Patriots fan, there have been (by my count) 5 different skill position supporting casts in the Brady Era (Brown-Patten-Smith, Brown-Givens-Dillon, Caldwell-Watson-Maroney, Moss-Welker-BJGE, Welker-Gronk-Ridley) and about 25 different OL contributors (with Light being the one mainstay, and he's gone now) and one defensive teammate who has last from the end of the Brown-Givens-Dillon Era (Wilfork). And that's the roster of the best team in the league through that stretch (record-wise). The supporting cast changes constantly and the 3-5 year window of "prime" for these supporting cast members is consistent. 
 
Assuming any player picked, other than QB, to be productive and healthy in 4-6 years when "the window opens" is poor strategy AND dreadfully unrealistic unless you are or are related to Marty Hurney. 
 
Somewhere Deion Branch is kinda bummed that he doesn't beat Troy Brown for top billing even after he'd beaten Troy Brown for top billing.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Quote

IMO, Russell Wilson is the next Sanchize. Rode a good team and some incredible luck to an unbelievable season. Key word there is "unbelievable" as literally nothing and nobody thought is was possible before the season. Yay for him. He's a short guy with less than ideal accuracy who can run around a little bit until some DL crushes some body part. If Russell Wilson is a starter in the NFL five years from now, I'll be shocked. Best case scenario is that he's a poor man's Mike Vick - capable of magic but inconsistent. Worst case scenario, he's Tavaris Jackson.
Just for fun, not to continue to put nails in SF121's coffin. Vick's rookie season was pretty much a wash, with only 113 attempts. Jackson's was too, with only 81 attempts.

Let's compare Wilson's rookie with Vick and Jackson's 2nd seasons (DYAR in bold):
  • Name: Cmp-Att / Cmp% / TD-INT / Y/A / Rate / DYAR
  • RW: 252-393 / 64.1% / 26-10 / 7.9 / 100.0 / 867
  • Vick: 231-421 / 54.9% / 16-8 / 7.0 / 81.6 / 514
  • TJ: 171-294 / 58.2% / 9-12 / 5.3 / 70.8 / 45 < lol
Damn. Even with a running lead for Vick and TJ (thanks to a full camp going into year 2), Wilson pretty much blew them out of the water. How about them apples.

Some more dazzling stats:
  • Vick has never had more than 21 TDs (year 8, 2010), 5 fewer than Wilson
  • Vick has never completed more than 62.6% of his passes, also in 2010, 1.5% less than Wilson's 64.1% in rookie year
  • Vick only surpassed Wilson in passing yards once, in 2011 with 3303 yards (Wilson had 3118 in 2012)
  • Jackson has only completed more than 60% of passes once, in 2011 (6th season, not counting 2009 when he only had 21 attempts)
  • Jackson has only passed for more than 10 TDs once, also in 2011 with 14
  • Only once has either Vick or Jackson played the full season (16 games for Vick in 2006), while Wilson played all 16 + post season in 2012
How about this myth of WIlson's "inconsistency"? He's had a few duds, like vs. Niners (final score, 6-13), but for the rest of the season after that game:
  • Passer ratings: 96.8, 127.3, 131.0, 125.9, 104.9, 88.0, 104.4, 115.3, 136.3 + playoffs 92.9, 109.1.
  • TD-INT: 18-3 + playoffs 3-1
That's pretty consistent, as in consistently pretty good.

To recap, there's nothing, I mean absolutely nothing in Wilson's rookie campaign suggests what SF121 is slinging, that he's a "poor man's Vick" or "worst case Tavaris Jackson".

Edit. I forgot this gem:
 
When the downside on a pick is Tavaris Jackson, and it's pick #6 overall, it's a bad pick.
I guess by this logic everyone should have passed on RGIII, because as a #2 pick, the downside is Ryan Leaf or Rick Mirer.
 

Scoops Bolling

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bsj said:
You almost got it
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
We can hybrid players now? Damn, I should've went with Peyton Tebow... It's alright Scoops, its not like you can see the back of his jersey in the picture!
It was 4 AM and it's Mardi Gras. Sue me.
 

Myt1

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I didn't think I'd see a draft crazier than the last one but, this shit is bananas.  B-A-N-A-N-A-S.  Anyone who thinks they're drafting for 10 years down the road hasn't looked at the results of the last draft.  3/4 of your team could be hurt, retired, or dead at the hands of nuclear weapon owning GMs.
 
The Myt Cowboys select:
 

 
Calvin Johnson, WR, Cybertron
 
He's the best WR in the league.  He is an offense unto himself.  He's tough, playing through injuries this past season, and he's an excellent run blocker.  And he'll be 27 when next season starts.  We've selected Mr. Johnson because he is by far the best player at his position, is right in our age sweet spot, and and because you're all crazy enough that he remains available.  Admittedly, to reap the full benefits of this pick, we will likely have to draft Starscream a round or two early.
 

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Myt1 said:
The Myt Cowboys select:
 

 
Calvin Johnson, WR, Cybertron
 
I feel like I don't even know you anymore.
 

Reverend

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Also, SSF, I need to know: are you posting from a mobile device or have you never actually noticed what Super Nomario's handle really is?
 

soxfan121

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JerBear said:
OMG, SF121 he didn't pick THE GUY!
 
Picking one of the five best players in the NFL isn't a reach at 10.
 
Myt1 nailed it. How did you fools allow this to happen? 
 
The only reason to draft Matt Ryan before Calvin Johnson is if you're a Boston College alum or related to the Ryan family. Or had a previous head injury. In which case, congrats. You're doing really well in your rehab.