This is where I am at on this too at this point.IF he can keep pitching like that, there aren't many better. I'll keep him.
This is where I am at on this too at this point.IF he can keep pitching like that, there aren't many better. I'll keep him.
Opt out for me too, but not just because of health/injury concerns - the guy is going to be 33 by season’s end, the odds are really high that despite pitching awesome right now (he is) he will decline heading towards the end of this contract. That money is better spent elsewhere (Sale, younger pitchers hitting FA, etc).That's where I am too, but only because of health concerns.
I'm curious who these pitchers are. Sure, we'd all like someone pitching as well as Price, but who is younger and wants to come to the Sox, but how many of these guys exist? Someone very good has to take his spot if he goes.Opt out for me too, but not just because of health/injury concerns - the guy is going to be 33 by season’s end, the odds are really high that despite pitching awesome right now (he is) he will decline heading towards the end of this contract. That money is better spent elsewhere (Sale, younger pitchers hitting FA, etc).
If, and it’s a big if, we can retain Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Wright, then Price is more of a luxury than a necessity. But a lot can change in two years.Those wanting Price to opt out should suggest what the Sox 2020 rotation is without him.
Keep in mind that we likely can’t add to the rotation this offseason and have no trade chips beyond the major league roster. So we’re pretty much dealing with 2020 free agents and the long odds that any of Beeks/Shawaryn/Johnson can stick.
That’s an interesting question, and I don’t know the answer. Say Porcello stays exactly as good as he is now until he hits FA — essentially a 4.5 win pitcher. He probably gets a pretty monstrous contract of his own, doesn’t he? (If he reverts to 2017 level, we don’t want him.)If, and it’s a big if, we can retain Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, and Wright, then Price is more of a luxury than a necessity. But a lot can change in two years.
I’d lean towards having Price opt out. His upside is difficult and expensive to replace, but I feel like there’s a lingering sense of doom with his pitching arm. He’s already missed significant time, and there’s been at least a couple of times it seemed like “shit, here comes the TJS announcement”.
Of course, I’d sign up for what he’s given us so far this season, but it’s risky, and I wouldn’t want to keep him if the cost is Sale or Mookie leaving town.
See I don’t really think that - having two 30M+ pitchers on a staff is a huge luxury, like Hank Scorpio says, and that is what it is going to take to retain Sale. I don’t want to keep Price if the cost is losing Sale or Mookie, especially when its unlikely as Price’s contract progresses he is unlikely to earn its value.Someone very good has to take his spot if he goes.
You sure we’ll be able to get Pom at four years? Bidding war could be intense, might have to go six.See I don’t really think that - having two 30M+ pitchers on a staff is a huge luxury, like Hank Scorpio says, and that is what it is going to take to retain Sale. I don’t want to keep Price if the cost is losing Sale or Mookie, especially when its unlikely as Price’s contract progresses he is unlikely to earn its value.
I think it becomes more likely that the Sox retain Pomeranz this offseason if Price opts out, and they should be able to get him for probably the same number of years still due to Price for a fraction of the cost. A rotation of Sale-Porcello-Erod-Pom-Wright is a decent rotation even if it is a step down from this season.
If they go as high as 6 they better include some opt outs to protect the team.You sure we’ll be able to get Pom at four years? Bidding war could be intense, might have to go six.
Which basically started as soon as people were even entertaining the thought that there was actually a choice to be made there though, right?
Probably more valuable to just look at a big list of guys at his point in their careers.For those that know more about this than I do, health willing (a big if), how does a pitcher with Price's reportoire age as his stuff declines? When he's not suffering from carpel tunnel syndrome, Price seems like the kind of pitcher that can change speeds, mix his pitches, and hit his spots. If and when he inevitabli loses a couple MPH on his fastball, what are the odds that he remains a reasonably effective pitcher?
Useful stuff here. Retaining command (and avoiding injury) seems key, and Price (2.34 career BB/9) compares favorably to those you mention.Probably more valuable to just look at a big list of guys at his point in their careers.
He'll need to average very roughly 3.75 fWAR per season to "earn" his contract, which equates to 15 total.
Here is a list of pitchers since 1980 and what they did in their age 34-37 season.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=1980&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=34,37&filter=&players=
Out of the above crew, his closest comps who were successful at his age are probably Chuck Finley, Andy Pettitte, Al Leiter and Kenny Rogers. I don't recall all of their repertoires perfectly off the top of my head, but he obviously isn't Randy Johnson or Jamie Moyer.
11 out of 147 (7.5%) earned 15 fWAR or more and 60 of 147 (41%) earned at least half that
The odds aren't with him, but he did win a Cy Young for a reason. Maybe he can get by with diminishing stuff as long as his command stays.
I wonder if Price's walk rate holds as he ages, or whether he has to nibble more. So much of this discussion is founded in pure speculation/projection, naturally. I don't remember much about Finley or Lilly, but Finley's walk rate is double that of Price so far, so maybe Pettitte is the best comp, with the walk rate just creeping up a bit? I'm fine with him opting in, my guess is he'll be worth at least half of what he's paid, but if he opts out, we should be done with him.Useful stuff here. Retaining command (and avoiding injury) seems key, and Price (2.34 career BB/9) compares favorably to those you mention.
Price's repertoire (4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter, change, occasional curve) is closer to Pettitte's than any of those other guys (though Pettitte threw a curve more often). Chuck Finley's career predates a lot of available statistics, but his velocity is probably closer to Price's than any of those you mention above besides RJ. Finley had a signature splitter that Price doesn't; on the other hand, Finley had a higher walk rate. Price's career walk rate (2.34/9) is comparable to Ted Lilly's, but Price throws about 4 mph harder.
So yeah, some combination of Pettitte, Lilly, and Finley if he stays healthy. In other words, a 2.5-3 win pitcher.
This is smart. If he opts out, put his money towards extensions for Sale, Betts and Benintendi, and call it a day.I'm fine with him opting in, my guess is he'll be worth at least half of what he's paid, but if he opts out, we should be done with him.
Bogaerts too, if there's room.This is smart. If he opts out, put his money towards extensions for Sale, Betts and Benintendi, and call it a day.
It sucks that he's getting whacked by our chief rival, but that has nothing to do with the appropriateness of him speaking his mind on whatever he chooses to. I expect this stuff on WEEI, not here.it is hard to be likeable as a red sox while performing as bad as he does against the yankees, while talking as much shit as he does. he needs to just shut his mouth and be the #4 guy that he is now. it is just annoying
He impacted the middle series too, when he couldn't pitch at the last minute yet somehow was back in there a few days later.put this way, we're 4-5 against the Yankees, and Price gave us zero chance to win in two of those games.
I think it's only in the realm of possibility if he starts having more games like last night against teams other than the Yankees. If he finishes the year pitching the way he has thus far (shit against the Yankees, good against everyone else), there's no way they won't put him in the post-season rotation. Not unless Pomeranz comes back and is so absolutely lights out that he forces his way into a rotation spot while Sale, Porcello and Rodriguez are equally lights out. And frankly, if that happens, the Sox will have won the division by so many games that we'll be rejoicing about a rotation so good that the pitcher with the 3.5 ERA was forced to the pen for the playoffs.No question it is too soon to relegate him to the 'pen, but it is within the realm of possibility
And let's see how he does against the Astros and Indians, 2 other likely playoff teams with top offenses. If the pattern continues, then it's time to worry. It's really time to worry if he gets clobbered by KC next. For now, I would treat this as a bump in the road until further data becomes available.I think it's only in the realm of possibility if he starts having more games like last night against teams other than the Yankees. If he finishes the year pitching the way he has thus far (shit against the Yankees, good against everyone else), there's no way they won't put him in the post-season rotation. Not unless Pomeranz comes back and is so absolutely lights out that he forces his way into a rotation spot while Sale, Porcello and Rodriguez are equally lights out. And frankly, if that happens, the Sox will have won the division by so many games that we'll be rejoicing about a rotation so good that the pitcher with the 3.5 ERA was forced to the pen for the playoffs.
I said this in the game thread and someone had a pretty sarcastic (and inaccurate) reply. The homers Price gave up to Torres and Hicks were both on like 92 mph fastballs at the knees on the inside corner. Torres hit his 380 feet to RF and Hicks hit his 373 to RF. Both would have been long fly outs in Fenway. Not saying they weren't hit hard, because they obviously were. But both would have been long outs in Fenway.Something to consider, and I don't mean this to come off as defending Price as much as it might appear, but the Yankees have been absolutely murdering LHP this year (8 wins in their last 9 games against lefty starters). Maybe, just maybe, it isn't 100% what Price was doing (or not doing) so much as that really, really good lineup just likes to tee off on lefties. Sure, Sale made them look foolish on Saturday, but perhaps that says something about how good he is rather than how poor the rest are. He comes in from a different angle than the conventional lefty, and with heavier stuff, so he might not be comparable.
Not saying Price can't "fix" whatever it is that makes the Yankees his kryptonite, but I'm not so sure what happened last night should be put totally on his (and the Red Sox staff's) shoulders.
I mean who’s left in the rotation?imo not even near a question. There is no way he should be even considered to be bumped to the bullpen. He got wiped out. It happens. He's a quality pitcher.
I mean that's the big question , and you're the only one here who seems to be addressing it. What, exactly, is Price doing wrong? Is he missing his spots? Is he not getting the motion he's had in other games? Velocity?I said this in the game thread and someone had a pretty sarcastic (and inaccurate) reply. The homers Price gave up to Torres and Hicks were both on like 92 mph fastballs at the knees on the inside corner. Torres hit his 380 feet to RF and Hicks hit his 373 to RF. Both would have been long fly outs in Fenway. Not saying they weren't hit hard, because they obviously were. But both would have been long outs in Fenway.
Where is Price supposed to throw his fastball against right-handed hitters in Yankee Stadium if not down and in? And how is that pitch supposed to be driven out to *right field*? I can see them yanking them down the LF line, but to hit them out to RF? That's pretty amazing hitting actually. Pitch inside to righties in Yankee Stadium and use the big part of the park to your advantage. But that they hit those out to RF was just great hitting.
Well some of it is that he doesn't have the velocity that he once did. He used to sit 95-96. Now he sits 90-91. And his offspeed stuff has never been dynamic. He definitely missed some spots last night and against that team he has to be pinpoint. Which he's capable of being. I mentioned the two pitches to Torres and Hicks, but he threw some meatballs in there as well.I mean that's the big question , and you're the only one here who seems to be addressing it. What, exactly, is Price doing wrong? Is he missing his spots? Is he not getting the motion he's had in other games? Velocity?
I don't know - I mean Drew Pomeranz had a 6 inning 2 run game against them, and Sale has done it twice now. The Yanks are obviously ridiculous against lefties, but they were also down Gary Sanchez who has extirpated Price's pitching. I just think he either wasn't getting enough separation between his fastball and off speed, or as a few others have suggested, he is pitch tipping.Something to consider, and I don't mean this to come off as defending Price as much as it might appear, but the Yankees have been absolutely murdering LHP this year (8 wins in their last 9 games against lefty starters). Maybe, just maybe, it isn't 100% what Price was doing (or not doing) so much as that really, really good lineup just likes to tee off on lefties.
Good post. I would add: he wasn’t some unknown entity. Dombrowski knew Price from Detroit. The team paid full price for him on the open market in a year they needed SP. But they also had firsthand experience with him.Some thoughts on Price and the signing, going back in time, because it's really, really frustrating.
When they signed Price, he was coming off his 29-year old season, a year in which he finished 2nd in the Cy Young award voting in the AL. He spent the vast majority of his career in the AL East. From 2010-2015 he averaged 217 innings per season - a total workhorse. Nary an injury issue, mainly due to his very smooth and sure mechanics. His era numbers those six years: 2.72, 3.49, 2.56, 3.33, 3.26, and 2.45. 5-time all star. 4 times in the top 6 of the CYA race. Twice finishing 2nd and once winning it. He was even relatively solid against the Yankees, going 13-8 with a 4.18 era and 8.0 k/9 over his career against them. Not CYA numbers, but not too bad.
In other words, there was absolutely no reason whatsoever to believe that Price would be anything but excellent, at least for the first part of his contract. None. Literally none. He had already performed at a very high level in the division. Had pitched well for teams in tight pennant races. And had just come off a great late season push with Toronto in 2015, going 2-0 against the Yankees in September, with a 1.50 era, 0.67 whip, and 10.5 k/9 against them. So in the pressure of a playoff race, he twice completely extinguished the Yankees in September the season just before Boston signed him.
In 2015, he was sitting 94-96, with a max velocity of 99. So he could really bring it. There was nothing whatsoever to worry about. When you think about investing money in a pitcher you ask:
- Is he durable? Check.
- Is he comfortable and has he had success in the AL East? Check.
- Has he done it in a playoff race? Check.
- Has he performed well against NY? Check.
- Is he a stud (i.e., a top performer overall)? Check.
There was no reason at all, really, to think that he wouldn't be fantastic. And yet.... it's like...holy crap this is NOT the same guy. At all. his most successful season with Boston was 2017, where his numbers look like the normal Price, but of course he was seriously injured and only able to pitch 74.2 innings.
So this is a major major mystery. I think losing velocity is a huge part of it. How much is between his ears? How much is just skill decline? How much is the accumulation of so many innings wearing him down?
I seriously think he has got some sort of "Yankee" problem. I hate to think it... but in this rare case, I believe either the Yankees have some insider info on him, they see some pitch tipping that other teams don't... or... Price just gets nervous when he faces them.Good post. I would add: he wasn’t some unknown entity. Dombrowski knew Price from Detroit. The team paid full price for him on the open market in a year they needed SP. But they also had firsthand experience with him.
I dunno. His struggles are kind of hard to understand. Maybe it is velocity. That said, he has pitched pretty well this year beyond the Yankees. Up until a few days ago there were even people here hoping he might opt out. So let’s see how the rest of the year plays out.
A good 3rd starter like Lance Lynn for more certainty? The dude who has an ERA of 5.49 and a WHIP of 1.68 this season, his first in the AL?There is almost zero chance Price opts out. With his elbow always going to be questionable, teams would not be giving more than 3 years and with the decline in his performance he’s not even a $20 million pitcher anymore.
It would be fantastic if he was rich enough and unhappy enough to opt out even given that financial reality. I hope he continues to see legitimate questions from the press and legitimate disappointment from fans as mountains rather than molehills.
Him opting out would be at most a minor downgrade in the rotation, even with just the in-house options right now. Sale, Porcello, Rodriguez, and then Wright, Johnson, Beeks, and Velazquez battle for the 4th and 5th slots and provide depth. Plus they could still take his $31 million per year and spend less than half on a good 3rd starter like Lance Lynn if they wanted more certainty.
But alas, we’re stuck with him, and his inability to pitch well when it matters makes him a 4th starter at best.