Potential Trade Deadline Targets
- Thread starter thepriceisright
- Start date
I can’t imagine they wouldn’t be happy with Johnson. His great June has landed him at an FIP just below Eduardo Rodriguez (3.55), and he’s got three additional years of control. I don’t think I do that.
Beeks, obviously, would be the A’s asking price.
Would they take Brian Johnson? I dunno. But if they would be willing to take him straight-up for Canha, I definitely do that deal.
Would they take Brian Johnson? I dunno. But if they would be willing to take him straight-up for Canha, I definitely do that deal.
Johnson's doing a pretty nice Pomeranz impression right now, complete with one of the best curveballs in the league and extremely low hard contact rates (on par with Sale and EdRod). Open question whether that translates back to the rotation, but we have five years to find out. Do you think he's playing that far over his head?
I like Canha's fit here but I'd worry about giving up a cost-controlled starter, even if he settles as a long-term #4, for a guy who's never been able to handle RHP.
Last edited:
Canha has a better career split vs RHP than he does LHP and he's under control until the end of 2021 while Johnson 2023. It is 2 years of control, not 3. Maybe I'm wrong? I think it's a fair question to ask though because there are valid reasons to be high/low on both Canha and Johnson.
Edit: Johnson's last 11 games (since the last time he gave up a HR): 17ip, 18h, 4r, 4er, 14k/3bb and an era of 2.12. Hitters are slashing .269/.300/.299 on a .340 BAbip.
First 11 games: 19ip, 24h, 14r, 14er, 7bb/19k and 4 HR allowed. Hitters slashed .304/.360/.532 on a .357 BAbip.
He's hittable but if he keeps the walks under control and limits extra base hits, he could still be serviceable. Hell, his FIP is 3.55 and his xFIP is 3.97 this season. His GB% is also closer to his pre 2016 performance, where he was much more successful. He's at 41% this year, after being around 35% the last 2. In 2014/15, he was 45-46%.
Last edited:
My bad on the service time error.
Canha's success against RHP came over 300 PAs back in 2015, but you're right. I'm not sure what to make of either of them long-term, but I think Johnson has more value to us if he can stick in the rotation, and more trade value with the age difference. 2018 Mark Canha is a nice complement to Bradley and Moreland, but he's not going to displace one of our outfielders, and barring an unforeseen breakout that no underlying stats are suggesting, he's not going to be our 2020 starting first baseman.
He was better vs RHP last year too. He just wasn't particularly good. .212/.275/.414 in 109 PA vs RHP, .203/.244/.338 in 87 vs LHP. He was worse in 2015 but he had 44 PA in 2015. He had roughly a neutral split in his minor league career.
Can't the same generally be said of Johnson and actual chance he ends up being a regular starting pitcher piece here, and especially on a team who's fielding $200m+ payrolls?
Plus he's already going on 28yo and out of options to boot. Which really only serves to hurt the possibility of the above ever materializing.
You could argue it's materialized. Johnson has a 4.13 FIP since the start of 2017. His K%, GB%, and hard hit rates are all trending in the right direction.
This is an imperfect science, but that's on par with Sean Manaea, Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, and Danny Duffy. You're right that he hasn't proven himself over a full season and I'm not suggesting his ceiling's as high as Lester or Manaea, but he has a lot more value than a fourth outfielder, especially for a team with as few chips as we have.
Is Canha any good in CF? If he's not, I can't see him having much trade value. I'm not too familiar with the guy.
Beane often likes weird players though so maybe he'd bite on something like Chandler Shepherd and Williams Jerez. He'd probably have interest in Lin. That's assuming Canha isn't good in CF. If he is, he could probably fetch more than Brian Johnson anyway.
Beane often likes weird players though so maybe he'd bite on something like Chandler Shepherd and Williams Jerez. He'd probably have interest in Lin. That's assuming Canha isn't good in CF. If he is, he could probably fetch more than Brian Johnson anyway.
Lowrie is 34 years old, is always an injury waiting to happen, and is batting .217/.271/.336 over his past 166 PA after his blazing start. On top of that, he'll cost roughly $2-3M for a two-to-three-month rental. On top of that, the Sox have far more depth at the positions he can play than at Canha's.
I don't think I'd trade Johnson for either Lowrie or Canha at this point, but Canha seems like the better fit for our needs and payroll situation.
MLBTR has some stuff up about him as well if this is a possibly https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/06/trade-rumors-britton-red-sox-beltre-dodgers-boyd.html
Again, I was referring to materialized there in relationship to any actual surrounding probability chance that the Sox would ever pencil him long term as anything more then low leverage/spot depth on the MLB roster. At this point and outside the isolated hypothetical....I just don't think there is much of one. They'd backfill at SP from outside the organization before ever letting it play out to that point.
The only way this could make any sense is if the Sox were seriously considering a Devers demotion. Or a JBJ trade/dump I guess. Otherwise I couldn't see Beltre waiving his 10/5 to be a part timer.
His age has little to do with the final two months of his contract unless you think this long cold streak means the end is imminent. I guess it's possible, but this is what he was last year and I don't think it's a coincidence that his health has contributed to this solid season and a half of play.
If they acquire him at the deadline, they can afford him or at least have Oakland absorb a small amount of the contract which is really all that matters. Yes they have depth, but it's replacement level depth beyond Holt. Brock has been great, but I think he'll eventually be exposed as an everyday player and is more suited to super subbing.
Canha will cost more in prospects given his control. Not to mention that he won't be any more than a 4th outfielder/pinch hitter for this team which really limits his impact down the stretch. I think he's useful long term, but not the piece needed to win the division this year.
If this was a normal year, I wouldn't worry about adding marginal wins, but I want every chance to get the best playoff position.
Last edited:
Same here. It's going to be a pretty good scrum with the Yanks, and I want the division. I don't want to face Paxton in a Wild Card game, and though I'd like our chances, the whole point of having Sale is to throw him twice in a division series.
It'll be interesting to see if the Sox can wriggle out a little division lead with Sanchez going down. I fully expect the Yanks to get J.A. Happ. We don't have a lot of ammo for our deadline acquisition(s), so it'd be nice to get it right.
It's not as binary as you're suggesting. You don't have to think "the end is imminent" to think that being 34 means Lowrie's cold streak is likely to last longer than it would have at 28, the bounceback from it is likely to be a little less bouncy, and the next one is likely to come sooner. None of this is certain, of course; he may be a year or two (or five) from reaching that point.
Beltre would easily be a regular, no need for a Devers demotion. JBJ rides the pine. You forget the man is 39 years old. I doubt he'll have a problem splitting time at 3B/DH and getting more rest than a normal everyday player, because when it counts in October, he knows he'll be in the lineup every single day.
Beltre finally getting his ring in a Red Sox uniform is all i want.
RF Mookie
CF Benintendi
DH Beltre
LF Martinez
1B Moreland
SS Bogaerts
3B Devers
2B Holt
C Sandy
I’d like little more than a reunion with Beltre, but Danny Valencia at less than one-tenth the cost still seems like a better fit for this team. Someone who can spell Devers or Moreland (or Nunez?) down the stretch is ideal, and as strange as it is to say, Valencia may be a better hitter than Beltre in 2018 anyway.
That said, it’s definitely a unique case. He’s already a HoF lock, but it’s not hard to imagine Jon Daniels facilitating a Beltre trade to a playoff-bound team more or less of his choosing. It’d be amazing if he came back here, but Atlanta, Cleveland, or Arizona need him more.
Last edited:
Ignoring the salary aspects, I envision Beltre having a widespread positive personality/character/leadership impact on the Sox similar to the widely reported impact that Carlos Beltran had on the 'Stros last year. Devers in particular could benefit greatly from a mentor like Beltre.
Valencia's rep (deserved or not) is nothing along these lines.
Beltre has 10-5 rights, so, he'll be able to hand pick his new team. Hopefully, he'd embrace a return to Beantown.
We all love Beltre, I get it. But the 18 million price tag seems like a non-starter to me.given the Rangers would have to eat 6-ish million.
I guess the prospect return wouldn't be amazing either way, but I think the Rangers could do better than the Red Sox as a trading partner.
I guess the prospect return wouldn't be amazing either way, but I think the Rangers could do better than the Red Sox as a trading partner.
Playing Martinez in LF and Benintendi in CF every day because you are unnecessarily dour on JBJ's offensive potential and overall value will not make it more likely that anyone wearing a Red Sox uniform gets a ring this year.
The Rangers may well prefer another team's prospects, but, as a 10-5 guy, Beltre has complete control over where he goes, if anywhere at all. If Beltre tells the Rangers that it's Boston or bust, the Rangers will have only 2 choices: make the trade or hold on to him.
If the Rangers plan to re-sign him for 2019 anyway, it may behoove them to do the deal.
Agreed. The difference between Beltre's offense and Devers' isn't enough to justify the yuge defensive hit in the OF. If I were a betting man, I wouldn't even love Beltre's odds of outhitting Devers the rest of this season. The kid's young and learning on the job and I wouldn't be surprised if at any point a few things clicked and the numbers jumped (permanently) for the better.
If the Sox did hypothetically pull the trigger on Beltre at the start of July, and then sent Devers down until September with the intention of essentially giving it a reset go there next year, would that be enough to assure the preservation of an extra year at the back end of his FA clock?
Unless Dever's performance completely craters, I highly doubt that the Sox would demote Devers to AAA in the event of a Beltre acquisition. Instead, I envision that Beltre would get some time at 3rd and some at DH and some days where he's not in the starting lineup but available off the bench as a potent RH bat (which they're currently sorely lacking) and/or late-inning defensive sub.
If it did turn out to be Boston or bust for Beltre, then I can see the Rangers simply holding on to him. The Red Sox are going to need the Rangers to subsidize Beltre's remaining salary. The Rangers aren't going to do that without getting something worthwhile in return. The Red Sox don't have anything that worthwhile to give. Hence Beltre stays in Arlington or he has to re-assess where he's willing to go.
I still don't think Swihart is "nothing", despite his putrid numbers. Scouts have seen great promise in him but he's never had an adequate chance to prove anything. I could easily see a team taking him on as something of value in a FA dump.
More important, I just don't see Devers being a great asset come playoff time where errors and un-productive outs are magnified. He's probably going to be a great asset as he gets older, but a veteran at 3B come post-season is kind of enticing.
There is a difference between taking a player (not a prospect) in trade for a pricey veteran and paying upwards of $5-6M to acquire the same player (while also trading the same veteran).
The Red Sox can't afford Beltre without the Rangers eating a ton of salary. I don't think the Red Sox have anything they're willing to part with, including Swihart, that the Rangers are willing to eat that kind of money to acquire. If they are, great, but I just don't see it.
Sources: Red Sox are close to a trade. I'm told it's for a RH bat. Also told the deal does not involve anyone who would be considered a top-10 Red Sox prospect.
Johnson probably secured the fifth rotation spot with his strong showing today, at least until Pomeranz can get fixed.
That means we’d have no lefties in the pen, so it’s possible a Swihart deal for a reliever happens soon. I don’t know if he could fetch major league product, but I’d be thrilled with Buchter, Avilan, or Diekman (in that order).
That means we’d have no lefties in the pen, so it’s possible a Swihart deal for a reliever happens soon. I don’t know if he could fetch major league product, but I’d be thrilled with Buchter, Avilan, or Diekman (in that order).
He’ll probably get dumped for a lottery ticket. I expect DD to try and go big on a reliever, likely Britton.
DD mentioned his interest in a reliever today on EEI. The dude almost never fails to upgrade at a position where he feels there is a need, so I can't imagine him not acquiring something.
In fact, I can't remember him ever not following through on an area of need.
Slightly off topic, but a lot of us wanted him to spend on a reliever this off season and the majority of them have sucked (though Watson has been great and he was mentioned around here). https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/offseason-spending-on-relievers-isnt-working-out/
I'm glad he showed restraint there.
In fact, I can't remember him ever not following through on an area of need.
Slightly off topic, but a lot of us wanted him to spend on a reliever this off season and the majority of them have sucked (though Watson has been great and he was mentioned around here). https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/offseason-spending-on-relievers-isnt-working-out/
I'm glad he showed restraint there.
Have to love how methodical he is. He just gets shit done. He’s picked at for his aggressiveness but he’s built a juggernaut in 3 years by keeping the right young players and executing shrewd trades and FA signings.
Maybe I'm the only one, but I think Swihart is worth more than a lottery ticket.
I'd love Britton. I'm not sure we have what it takes to get him.
No, but wasn’t there a report that his knee began aching again once he moved back to the rotation? Wright is awesome when he’s on, but he’s not someone to plan around.
Brian Johnson’s FIP is down to 3.80. He’s pitching really well.
I haven't seen any specific reports about a pending Wright return either. I know this is a stretch, but I am not optimistic about a Wright return anytime soon. Given the similarities to the procedures that Pedroia and Wright have had, the stalled progress of Pedroia, and comments of that being normal. It seems reasonable that he will be out awhile......Would love to be wrong as Wright has done a nice job when he has been able to pitch.
Wright suggested that the soreness coincided with his return to the rotation -- that it took increasingly longer for post game soreness to go away. Maybe his knee responds better for an inning or two a few times a week, than as a starter. Maybe it would have cropped up anyway if he was relieving, but I dont think his return will be as a starter, except in an emergency.
We should bear in mind that Wright and Pedroia were the first baseball players to have the knee surgery that they did. We have no idea what "normal" is in terms of recovery from it. Full recovery, at least in the sense of no soreness/swelling after any activity, may not be possible. I felt before the setback that Wright really shouldn't be counted on going forward and that anything they get from him is a bonus, though admittedly that had nothing to do with his knee. Seems like that's still the case.
https://www.mlb.com/redsox/news/red-sox-reportedly-eyeing-marlins-relievers/c-283909094
Sox talking to the Marlins........Barraclough might be a nice add but no idea what Jeter would be expecting in return
Sox talking to the Marlins........Barraclough might be a nice add but no idea what Jeter would be expecting in return
