Potential Trade Deadline Targets

MikeM

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Or maybe it's the fact that majority of relievers are volatile, injury-prone, and inconsistent season to season, which inherently makes them not as valuable as position players. Especially young ones.
Yet since transitioning over to full time bullpen work as a 25yo after 2015 and leading the league in games pitched in 2016...Hand has been none of those things for going on a fairly solid sample size now. That combined with his team (and LT if you want to make it Red Sox specific) friendly deal should matter more here in making a fair value assessment to the particular player in question then starting him off with a broad generalization strike seemingly does imo.

If it wasn't AJ Preller I'd be tempted to bet that any potential return we'd see on Hand this deadline wouldn't be too far off from a Devers' type haul. But it is, so I won't. Like Grimshaw already pointed out, I'll guess we'll have to agree to disagree on just how wide that value gap between them really is.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Yet since transitioning over to full time bullpen work as a 25yo after 2015 and leading the league in games pitched in 2016...Hand has been none of those things for going on a fairly solid sample size now. That combined with his team (and LT if you want to make it Red Sox specific) friendly deal should matter more here in making a fair value assessment to the particular player in question then starting him off with a broad generalization strike seemingly does imo.

If it wasn't AJ Preller I'd be tempted to bet that any potential return we'd see on Hand this deadline wouldn't be too far off from a Devers' type haul. But it is, so I won't. Like Grimshaw already pointed out, I'll guess we'll have to agree to disagree on just how wide that value gap between them really is.
If you want to put your hands over your ears and ignore the context of his position and the overbearingly large sample size of, you know, decades of all of MLB, when it comes to evaluation and volatility of relief pitchers, then go ahead, knock yourself out. Just be aware that you're the one who doesn't understand their relative value, not everyone else.

Said simply: if you ran the team and traded your 21 year old starting 3B, who if they weren't your starter would easily be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, with no readily available replacement, for a reliever, you wouldn't be running the team long.

Again, though, if you want to keep the blinders on and continue to beat the drum that Preller will receive that kind of return, by all means.
 

grimshaw

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Often teams don't even "develop" relief arms per se, they're just failed starters with repertoires and/or velocities that play up well in relief. It's rare (not unheard of, but rare) for players to be drafted as, and come up through the system entirely as relievers.
Ya I guess develop was the wrong word. They seem to be transitioning guys sooner into bullpen roles than they used to.

Though their 3rd round pick - Durbin Feltman could make the team as a reliever by September by design, since he was a closer in college.

I like what they are doing. Building a cheap pen helps them spend elsewhere and not waste assets on rentals.
 

BaseballJones

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If you want to put your hands over your ears and ignore the context of his position and the overbearingly large sample size of, you know, decades of all of MLB, when it comes to evaluation and volatility of relief pitchers, then go ahead, knock yourself out. Just be aware that you're the one who doesn't understand their relative value, not everyone else.

Said simply: if you ran the team and traded your 21 year old starting 3B, who if they weren't your starter would easily be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball, with no readily available replacement, for a reliever, you wouldn't be running the team long.

Again, though, if you want to keep the blinders on and continue to beat the drum that Preller will receive that kind of return, by all means.
Thank you. You do NOT trade Rafael Devers for a relief pitcher.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Often teams don't even "develop" relief arms per se, they're just failed starters with repertoires and/or velocities that play up well in relief. It's rare (not unheard of, but rare) for players to be drafted as, and come up through the system entirely as relievers.
This is becoming increasingly not the case, I think. There are guys regularly coming out of college now that were exclusively relievers there and teams are leaving them in the role. The Red Sox 3rd round pick this year, for example, is a reliever.

Just grabbing the active saves leaders as a matter of getting a reasonable sample of current top level relievers. Fernando Rodney (yeah, he's the active saves leader at present) made 20 minor league starts over two years...he also made just as many relief appearances in that same period. He was a reliever before and (obviously) after that stretch. Not sure he's a "failed starter". Kimbrel has no professional starts in his career unless you count throwing in the first inning of a minor league game while on rehab assignment. Kenley Jansen was a failed catcher converted to relief (2 career minor league starts). Joakim Soria made 18 starts across three levels in 2005-6, but also 71 relief appearances in the same span. Not sure that's "failed starter" either. Greg Holland made seven starts in high A ball (25 relief appearances that year) but has been exclusively a reliever otherwise. Mark Melancon has never made a start other than rehab appearances.

I could keep going, but I think the fact that most of the better closers of the last 5-8 years were not "failed" starters in any sense at all. They were developed and brought up exclusively as relievers. Of course, the bullpen is where failed starters end up as well, but I don't think it's an automatic that most/all relievers are failed starters, at least not anymore.
 

judyb

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Even Aroldis Chapman who was used as a starter at times both in Cuba and in the minors, wasn't given a chance to fail as a starter before he was permanently converted to a reliever. Obviously, we all remember that Andrew Miller was and did.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Even Aroldis Chapman who was used as a starter at times both in Cuba and in the minors, wasn't given a chance to fail as a starter before he was permanently converted to a reliever. Obviously, we all remember that Andrew Miller was and did.
Chapman was the one I skipped on the list of active saves leaders because I wasn't sure if he fit as a failed starter or not. What records B-Ref has for his Cuban days show him almost exclusively working as a starter. The Reds had Chapman starting in AAA during his first full year but he himself seemed to be resistant to going back to it once he was relieving. Reminded me of Papelbon who came up a starter, moved to the pen out of necessity, became the closer, and resisted the attempts to move him back in the rotation after that. Less "failed" starter, more preferred being a closer/reliever to being a starter.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Chapman was the one I skipped on the list of active saves leaders because I wasn't sure if he fit as a failed starter or not. What records B-Ref has for his Cuban days show him almost exclusively working as a starter. The Reds had Chapman starting in AAA during his first full year but he himself seemed to be resistant to going back to it once he was relieving. Reminded me of Papelbon who came up a starter, moved to the pen out of necessity, became the closer, and resisted the attempts to move him back in the rotation after that. Less "failed" starter, more preferred being a closer/reliever to being a starter.
Most of the guys you listed have a decent sample size of minor league starts under their belt.

Let's put it this way: if they dominated in them, they wouldn't still be relievers. Papelbon moved to the pen out of necessity yes, but he was still far better there (and his velocity really played up) than he ever was starting. Guys who can start and do it well don't end up as relievers, it would be a misuse of value and assets.

It's still the vast majority. I said earlier it's not unheard of to see relievers bred start to finish as what they are, but it's definitely not commonplace and guys with live arms/stuff will always get shots to prove they can start, because starters are just simply more valuable and important.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Most of the guys you listed have a decent sample size of minor league starts under their belt.
Decent sample size? 20 starts/161 total minor league appearances for Rodney. 1/122 for Kimbrel (rehab start). 7/58 for Jansen (all of the 1-inning, rehab variety). Soria 19/109 including Mexican and winter leagues...18 of those starts were in such leagues. Only 1 start in an affiliated minor league and it was a 1-inning start. Holland 10/147 (3 1-inning rehab starts). Melancon 4/155 (all rehab starts).

So of the list I offered, Soria was a part time starter in Mexico for a season before he was signed by the Royals and Rodney started a few games early in his minor league career. I'm not sure either equates to a "decent" sample size. In both cases, it was pretty clear their organization saw them as a reliever fairly quickly if not right off the bat.
 

jon abbey

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David Robertson is another guy who has always been a reliever, minors and majors both.
 

joe dokes

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Decent sample size? 20 starts/161 total minor league appearances for Rodney. 1/122 for Kimbrel (rehab start). 7/58 for Jansen (all of the 1-inning, rehab variety). Soria 19/109 including Mexican and winter leagues...18 of those starts were in such leagues. Only 1 start in an affiliated minor league and it was a 1-inning start. Holland 10/147 (3 1-inning rehab starts). Melancon 4/155 (all rehab starts).

So of the list I offered, Soria was a part time starter in Mexico for a season before he was signed by the Royals and Rodney started a few games early in his minor league career. I'm not sure either equates to a "decent" sample size. In both cases, it was pretty clear their organization saw them as a reliever fairly quickly if not right off the bat.

In hindsight, it seems that for the most part, "closers" may have very little in the way of starting experience these days. The rest of the relievers, though, seem to come more from the former-starter ranks.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I don’t think the Sox have what it takes to peel a big name off the market unless they are willing to part with major league assets. However, the names that get moved for the Tommy Kahnle or Chad Greens of the world are never top prospects and I think that’s what the Sox are going to end up feeling out the market for. DD needs to find the upside guy or misused arm who he can grab for an upside prospect, maybe some international $, and/or a PTBNL.

I know the Sox pen has performed well in the regular season, but I’m not sure their bullpen matches up against the top playoff teams. If they can find that 3rd or 4th guy to put in front of Kelly besides Smith, it’ll make them that much better in a playoff game where a starter struggles.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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In hindsight, it seems that for the most part, "closers" may have very little in the way of starting experience these days. The rest of the relievers, though, seem to come more from the former-starter ranks.
True. I suppose my greater point is that the difference making relievers are either closers or guys destined to be closers. If you look at guys like Melancon and Rodney, they weren't closers right out of the gate like Kimbrel or Chapman were. They paid their dues as mop up guys and set up guys before ending up in a closer job. I think we're reaching a point where they outnumber the "failed starter" types amongst the elite/desirable relievers in the league.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Often teams don't even "develop" relief arms per se, they're just failed starters with repertoires and/or velocities that play up well in relief. It's rare (not unheard of, but rare) for players to be drafted as, and come up through the system entirely as relievers.
And a lot of relievers are drafted and turned into starters in the minors with no intention of them actually starting. It's just to get more experience and development.

What you say is probably still true, but it is far less true than it was in 2001.

edit: I'd guess it's also far less likely that a bullpen arm in HS or College is going to get drafted in the first place.
 

joe dokes

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True. I suppose my greater point is that the difference making relievers are either closers or guys destined to be closers. If you look at guys like Melancon and Rodney, they weren't closers right out of the gate like Kimbrel or Chapman were. They paid their dues as mop up guys and set up guys before ending up in a closer job. I think we're reaching a point where they outnumber the "failed starter" types amongst the elite/desirable relievers in the league.
Fair enough. The dichotomy might better as "excellent/non-excellent," rather than "closers/not-closers"
 

Adrian's Dome

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Decent sample size? 20 starts/161 total minor league appearances for Rodney. 1/122 for Kimbrel (rehab start). 7/58 for Jansen (all of the 1-inning, rehab variety). Soria 19/109 including Mexican and winter leagues...18 of those starts were in such leagues. Only 1 start in an affiliated minor league and it was a 1-inning start. Holland 10/147 (3 1-inning rehab starts). Melancon 4/155 (all rehab starts).

So of the list I offered, Soria was a part time starter in Mexico for a season before he was signed by the Royals and Rodney started a few games early in his minor league career. I'm not sure either equates to a "decent" sample size. In both cases, it was pretty clear their organization saw them as a reliever fairly quickly if not right off the bat.
20 starts isn't a decent sample? That's 2/3rds of a major league season. It's not like you have to wheel a guy out there for 3 years before you figure out if he's better in the pen or not.

You know, unless you're the Sox with Joe Kelly.
 

MikeM

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Thank you. You do NOT trade Rafael Devers for a relief pitcher.
Pretty sure there wasn't a single person in this thread debating Hand's value that was suggesting it would be a good idea. In fact I doubt there was even anybody here who took that Morosi's tweet seriously enough to view it as an actual possibility on our current table. Not that following such context themselves was going to get in the way of an overly aggressive and exaggerated disagreement rant.

As mentioned by somebody else a couple days back in the bullpen thread, a LHP rental like Jake Diekman is probably the much more reality based target DD could/would ideally be aiming his wish list sights on imo. Unless I'm missing somebody there doesn't seem to be any other decent LHP rental types out there though.
 

chawson

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As mentioned by somebody else a couple days back in the bullpen thread, a LHP rental like Jake Diekman is probably the much more reality based target DD could/would ideally be aiming his wish list sights on imo. Unless I'm missing somebody there doesn't seem to be any other decent LHP rental types out there though.
Diekman’s had a dominant month, slashing his walk rate. He’s a great target, but might not be as sneaky as I hoped.

Zach Duke would also fit your criteria, I’d say. About as unsexy as it gets, but he seems healthy and effective again this year after TJS.
 

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Personally, I can only judge relievers by seeing them in game. The stats are too wonky...did he come in with men on base? Was it the bottom of the order? Did he allow inherited runners to score or move up? Did he set the side down in order because every pitcher has a chance to do that against even the best lineup? Did he walk a guy with 1B open? Did he walk the leadoff man? etc.

Essentially I'm saying the only reliever I'd pay to see is Koji (and maybe Mariano \ducks\)
 

soxeast

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If Wright produces Pomeranz can be a fine bullpen pitcher or a fine starter if he reverts back to his past form. A huge problem is the .181 JBJ too. How many times have we heard this season "he's about to breakout?" When their bottom of the order consists of any of their catchers, Nunez, Swihart, and JBJ in any combination of 3 or more, it's a frighteningly awful bottom of the order. Not just bad.

Going after a reliever without making a move for another bat also puts a ton of pressure on the pitching come playoff time too. Sure a bullpen guy would be good but so would an alternative for JBJ and maybe just platoon him. I wouldn't do any moves yet but an awful bottom of the order come playoff time only means the pitching had better be super.
 

iddoc

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But who can they get (and afford, given the pseudo-cap), realistically? Chris Carter (currently with the Twins’ AAA team) should be nearly free, and could help as a platoon mate for Moreland, LOOGY neutralizer, and sometime DH (with JDM to LF and JBJ to bench). Is that worth a roster spot now? Maybe. In September, sure.
 

MikeM

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If Wright produces Pomeranz can be a fine bullpen pitcher or a fine starter if he reverts back to his past form.
Does Pomeranz get the chance to revert back to form here if Wright keeps pitching like he has been?

While my initial take the situation was that Pom would simply be slotted in as the LHP bullpen answer, it's probably not that clean cut off paper. I mean there is that potential dynamic where you end up with an extremely unhappy guy in the club house while making said transition, and who feels management is holding him back from whatever chance he had at the best possible payday as an upcoming FA.

Hence I don't think it would be entirely out of the realm of possibility that we'd ultimately see DD do the guy a solid and deal him away to an NL contender. Maybe even to one with a bullpen surplus if it's out there, or in any event for something that could then be used in combination with the extra LT room being freed up to go in a different direction.
 

grimshaw

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Does Pomeranz get the chance to revert back to form here if Wright keeps pitching like he has been?

While my initial take the situation was that Pom would simply be slotted in as the LHP bullpen answer, it's probably not that clean cut off paper. I mean there is that potential dynamic where you end up with an extremely unhappy guy in the club house while making said transition, and who feels management is holding him back from whatever chance he had at the best possible payday as an upcoming FA.
Hey we agree on something!
Though I think it will be difficult to deal him. If he is effective then you're tempted to keep him as that bullpen asset - albeit 4th best option. And if he fails then you are basically dealing Clay Buchholz. Could be great. Could be terrible.

I would have thought that was unheard of a few weeks ago, but you can't possibly take Wright out of the rotation now, and I'm not sure he's a high leverage guy in the pen.

Dealing him frees up over 2.5 million too.
 

Byrdbrain

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The link is bad but why just post a link to some random blog anyway?
Unless you wrote it.
 

chawson

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Adrian Beltre is the most likable player in baseball, but it doesn’t make sense. Jurickson Profar however is an obvious fit.
 

Green Monster

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Agree on Profar!

Not sure what the aquistion cost would be but other possible targets might include:

Schoop
Solarte
Harrison
Dozier ?
Castro?
 

Green Monster

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I am not sure if this is the correct location for this but I have a question for some of the more astute posters.

The Red Sox have moved Rusney Castillo off of their 40-man roster. If I understand correctly, they are responsible for paying his contract but it no longer counts towards the cap. If they were able to package him in a trade (perhaps paying a portion of his contract) would that percentage then count towards the Red Sox cap? Just curious if his strong season at AAA offers any opportunity for another team to take a shot at a subsidized player.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I am not sure if this is the correct location for this but I have a question for some of the more astute posters.

The Red Sox have moved Rusney Castillo off of their 40-man roster. If I understand correctly, they are responsible for paying his contract but it no longer counts towards the cap. If they were able to package him in a trade (perhaps paying a portion of his contract) would that percentage then count towards the Red Sox cap? Just curious if his strong season at AAA offers any opportunity for another team to take a shot at a subsidized player.
Yes. Any subsidy would go to their luxury tax calculation. I don’t think you see Rusney go anywhere at this point - no one is taking it all on and they very well might call him up next year if they decide to non tender JBJ as their salaries for that purpose would likely end up being almost a wash.
 

jon abbey

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The Red Sox have moved Rusney Castillo off of their 40-man roster. If I understand correctly, they are responsible for paying his contract but it no longer counts towards the cap. If they were able to package him in a trade (perhaps paying a portion of his contract) would that percentage then count towards the Red Sox cap? Just curious if his strong season at AAA offers any opportunity for another team to take a shot at a subsidized player.
Is there something I'm missing about Castillo's AAA season, is he maybe spectacular defensively? He turns 31 in a couple of weeks (!!!) and has had very little power so far this year, 4 HRs in 276 BAs so far and an OK .788 OPS.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is there something I'm missing about Castillo's AAA season, is he maybe spectacular defensively? He turns 31 in a couple of weeks (!!!) and has had very little power so far this year, 4 HRs in 276 BAs so far and an OK .788 OPS.
No. He's not tradeable.
 

Byrdbrain

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Is there something I'm missing about Castillo's AAA season, is he maybe spectacular defensively? He turns 31 in a couple of weeks (!!!) and has had very little power so far this year, 4 HRs in 276 BAs so far and an OK .788 OPS.
Nope you aren't missing anything. He's probably good enough to be a 4th/5th outfielder in MLB but he's worth nothing remotely what he is being paid.

If the Sox paid all but a million $ or so then maybe a small market team would give them a lowA arm or something like that but it won't be happening.
 

chawson

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Profar would be ideal. Cheap and productive against LHP with versatility. Curious how highly Texas values him these days.
He’s pushed to utility work with Andrus back, and a FA at the end of the year.

Swihart for Profar + Diekman makes some sense. Swihart and Profar are two comparably distressed assets, and the Rangers have nothing to play for and nothing to lose at catcher trying him out. It’s probably an overpay on our part (Blake has four extra years of control), but it could be worth it in case Profar likes it here and we could sign him to a Nuñez-type deal for 2019-20.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't know why Texas would do that unless it was a pure salary dump, and neither Profar or Diekman make enough for it to matter.

How is it an overpay at all? It's a bag of baseballs for a decent MR and a 25 year old who's started to hit a little, and is somehow younger than Swihart. Swihart might not even make it thru the year without being DFA'd.
 

sean1562

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yea blake has not been good and they arent exactly showcasing him as a catcher. I doubt many other teams see him as anything anymore. If Lin comes up and plays well, he may end up replacing Swihart on the team
 

Cuzittt

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Is there something I'm missing about Castillo's AAA season, is he maybe spectacular defensively? He turns 31 in a couple of weeks (!!!) and has had very little power so far this year, 4 HRs in 276 BAs so far and an OK .788 OPS.
He has a pretty looking .319 Batting Average. Which is 20 points higher than any other regular. So... he has that going for him.

(He is fourth in OPS behind Olt (.238 BA), Ohlman (.242 BA) and Lin (.299 BA). The PawSox are not much of an offensive squad.)
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Wow I completely forgot Mike Olt was in the system. Is his flake out contributed pretty much solely to getting beaned in the head or should he have never been a top 20 guy? I remember a lot of hype around him before the trade to Cubs.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Wow I completely forgot Mike Olt was in the system. Is his flake out contributed pretty much solely to getting beaned in the head or should he have never been a top 20 guy? I remember a lot of hype around him before the trade to Cubs.
Hard to say for sure but I'd say probably overrated. He played in hitters leagues and was never that young for the league he was in. He did put up some numbers though.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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He’s pushed to utility work with Andrus back, and a FA at the end of the year.

Swihart for Profar + Diekman makes some sense. Swihart and Profar are two comparably distressed assets, and the Rangers have nothing to play for and nothing to lose at catcher trying him out. It’s probably an overpay on our part (Blake has four extra years of control), but it could be worth it in case Profar likes it here and we could sign him to a Nuñez-type deal for 2019-20.
Profar is under team control through 2020, and Rougned Odor's (mistake of a) long-term contract is the only reason I can see why Profar wouldn't be their starting 2B going forward. Trading him + a useful reliever for a guy who's in line to get DFA'd or dealt as filler at the trade deadline makes zero sense for Texas.

*
 

chawson

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I don't know why Texas would do that unless it was a pure salary dump, and neither Profar or Diekman make enough for it to matter.

How is it an overpay at all? It's a bag of baseballs for a decent MR and a 25 year old who's started to hit a little, and is somehow younger than Swihart. Swihart might not even make it thru the year without being DFA'd.
I have no idea how Swihart is valued at this point, but it’s a possible overpay because if they play him everyday and he becomes a league-average catcher — or even just an improvement on 34-year-old Robinson Chirinos and his 40-percent strikeout rate — they have him cheaply for four years. For a team with no catching prospects and nothing to play for, that’s valuable.

Coming into 2018, Swihart and Profar were both former top prospects looking to re-establish productivity. Profar was able to re-establish a sliver of it because of an injury to Andrus, but he’s run out of time to do that with the Rangers. A Profar~Swihart swap restores them four years of control on a very similar type of asset, and Swihart plays a more premium position that’s a team need for them.
 

chawson

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Profar is under team control through 2020, and Rougned Odor's (mistake of a) long-term contract is the only reason I can see why Profar wouldn't be their starting 2B going forward. Trading him + a useful reliever for a guy who's in line to get DFA'd or dealt as filler at the trade deadline makes zero sense for Texas.

*
Hmm, where are you seeing that? I’m seeing Profar listed as a UFA this winter.

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/yearly/payroll/

If that’s inaccurate, then nevermind.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Baseball Reference also lists his free agency as 2021, and this article spells out why Texas didn't recall him last September, because it allowed them to retain an additional year of control. Either way though, 2019 would have been an arbitration year for him.

*
 

grimshaw

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Sox interest in Canha is mentioned here.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/A-s-to-call-up-Edwin-Jackson-he-ll-join-13020528.php?utm_campaign=twitter-premium&utm_source=CMS Sharing Button&utm_medium=social

"As a result, the A’s have been trying to add starting pitching depth, and according to sources, they have discussed possible deals with Boston, which is looking for outfield help and which unsuccessfully asked about Mark Canha. There is a chance the teams will revisit things as next month’s trade deadline approaches."

He has three more years of control so I can see why the A's may want to hang onto him. Plus he is completely nondescript so fits right in there.
 
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DJnVa

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Personally, I can only judge relievers by seeing them in game. The stats are too wonky...did he come in with men on base? Was it the bottom of the order? Did he allow inherited runners to score or move up? Did he set the side down in order because every pitcher has a chance to do that against even the best lineup? Did he walk a guy with 1B open? Did he walk the leadoff man? etc.

Essentially I'm saying the only reliever I'd pay to see is Koji (and maybe Mariano \ducks\)

You know you can find out most of that info you’re looking for online right? Inherited runners, against first batter faced, against lineup position, base/out status—you’re not looking for some esoteric numbers here.