PawSox Rotation Discussion

[mabrowndog]

Breslow is being activated from the DL for tomorrow's game, with Workman being optioned back down as expected. But he won't be working out of the Pawtucket bullpen: 
 

Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber  4m
#RedSox have informed Workman that he's going to Triple-A to get stretched back out as a starter

 
So who heads to the PawSox pen: Chris Hernandez or Jeremy Kehrt? I'm thinking it'll be the latter in order to keep a southpaw in the rotation.
 
They'll also need to make a roster move to remain at 25 players.
 
 

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Kehrt is the definition of organizational filler. Hernandez could provide LH relief at some point down the line.

The bigger question is, once Barnes is back, how do people rank the starting 5 down there?

1. Webster
2. Barnes
3. De la Rosa
4. Workman
5. Ranaudo

 

[mwonow]

Kehrt is the definition of organizational filler. Hernandez could provide LH relief at some point down the line.

The bigger question is, once Barnes is back, how do people rank the starting 5 down there?

1. Webster
2. Barnes
3. De la Rosa
4. Workman
5. Ranaudo

 
Agreed, Kehrt's likely the odd man out.
 
The 1-5 at the bottom of your post is a beautiful thing. It's not at all a stretch to see all give guys pitching in ML ballparks within the nex 2-3 years, some of them sooner than that

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Kehrt is the definition of organizational filler. Hernandez could provide LH relief at some point down the line.

The bigger question is, once Barnes is back, how do people rank the starting 5 down there?

1. Webster
2. Barnes
3. De la Rosa
4. Workman
5. Ranaudo

He may not have the sexy upside of so e of the others, but I'd put Brandon Workman in the #1 slot. He's thrown plenty of effective ML innings (4 last night), is versatile, and healthy. Respect.

 

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

Agreed.  Webster and De La Rosa have to show some results to rank above Workman for me at this point.  They have both been a little (I said a little) frustrating to this point. 

 

[Merkle's Boner]

He may not have the sexy upside of so e of the others, but I'd put Brandon Workman in the #1 slot. He's thrown plenty of effective ML innings (4 last night), is versatile, and healthy. Respect.

I guess it depends on how you're ranking them. If the big club needs someone to start in three weeks, then yeah, I guess I'd take Workman (assuming he's stretched out). By mid-season or beyond, i would hope some of these other guys take the leap over him.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I would think de la Rosa is your #5 at this point, until he shows some consistency. The other four you could rank almost any way you want, really.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

So according to this article - http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2014/04/now_that_brandon_workman_is_a.html - the Red Sox would like to keep Workman in a starting role all year and not switch him between relieving and starting.  Does anyone else find this curious?  Workman seems to be the type who could be a very valuable set-up guy or even closer if Koji falters or gets injured.
 
And the Sox seem to have a lot of starting pitching.  And don't forget Owens.  Does he stay in AA no matter how well he does or is there a point where the Sox have to give him the promotion?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

According to this post (cross posted from the AAP forum)
 
“(Owens) has competed really well out there in his two outings,” said Portland Manager Billy McMillon. “Guys are in Double-A for a reason, and there’s still a lot of development there and maturing. Suffice it to say, I think he has a lot of upside. You could close your eyes and see him pitching at higher levels, but he’ll get there when he gets there. If he keeps having outings like this, he’ll probably open up some more dialogue about what’s going to happen a month from now.”
 
It would seem that Owen's promotion would be a foregone conclusion if he continues to impress.

 

[dbn]

So according to this article - http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2014/04/now_that_brandon_workman_is_a.html - the Red Sox would like to keep Workman in a starting role all year and not switch him between relieving and starting.  Does anyone else find this curious?  Workman seems to be the type who could be a very valuable set-up guy or even closer if Koji falters or gets injured.
 
And the Sox seem to have a lot of starting pitching.  And don't forget Owens.  Does he stay in AA no matter how well he does or is there a point where the Sox have to give him the promotion?

 
Well, he said "If we could script it...". So, if the need arises, he could be back in the ML pen. They just prefer he be starting. I grant your point that organizationally they are deeper at SP, but Workman's long-term value is greater as a starter.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I'm surprised they haven't transitioned De la Rosa into a relievers role. He has great velocity and movement on his FB and he's working on his change with Pedro. Workman seems like he could turn into a very solid #3 type starter. Barnes, Ranaudo and hopefully Webster might have a little higher ceiling than that. If they move Rubby to the pen it could open a spot for Owens in AAA.

 

[Rasputin]

So according to this article - http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2014/04/now_that_brandon_workman_is_a.html - the Red Sox would like to keep Workman in a starting role all year and not switch him between relieving and starting.  Does anyone else find this curious?  Workman seems to be the type who could be a very valuable set-up guy or even closer if Koji falters or gets injured.

 
Well, we know the rotation is going to need someone next year and Workman is the only one of them who has demonstrated an ability to get major league hitters out. That can easily change, but it's the way it is at the moment.

 

[inoffensiv philosophy]

They'll also need to make a roster move to remain at 25 players.

Peter Hissey to Portland, Bo Greenwell to Greenville per SoxProspects.

 

[Drek717]

So according to this article - http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2014/04/now_that_brandon_workman_is_a.html - the Red Sox would like to keep Workman in a starting role all year and not switch him between relieving and starting.  Does anyone else find this curious?  Workman seems to be the type who could be a very valuable set-up guy or even closer if Koji falters or gets injured.
 
And the Sox seem to have a lot of starting pitching.  And don't forget Owens.  Does he stay in AA no matter how well he does or is there a point where the Sox have to give him the promotion?

Starters > relievers though.  Its entirely possible that any of the other four young AAA starters wind up in the bullpen themselves.  If Workman can start (which his opportunities last year suggest he quite possibly can) there will likely be an opening for him.
 
In fact, I think right now you could argue that Workman is the most likely starter in the bunch.  Has he gotten ML hitters out?  Yes.  In fact, better as a starter than a reliever at the ML level.  Last year he had a 2.45 ERA in 18.1 innings starting and a 6.94 ERA in 23.1 innings relieving.  Of course he turned that relieving issue around in the playoffs and continued to maintain it early this season when called on.  Does he avoid walks?  His K/BB ratio as a ML starter last year was 4.50, in line with his AA rates of 4.60 and 4.35.  His AAA sample and relieving numbers are a good bit worse, but also relatively small samples.  He's answered this question better than any of his competition.  Can he strike guys out?  A K/9 over 8 basically every year at every level with a 10.15 against ML pitching last year.  So I'd say that's a yes.
 
To me Workman compares very well to a young John Lackey.  Workman's career was set back a bit by him staying in college a little while longer, but much like Lackey he's a big right handed Texan who works a low to mid-90's fastball and a good but not great off-speed repertoire paired with good command and a willingness to attack hitters.  Those traits have been shown to produce good results before.  His mL numbers are actually pretty much better than Lackey at every level, though he was about a year older at each stop.
 
So while he doesn't have the same "ace" starter potential that Webster, RDLR, Barnes, Ranaudo, and Owens posses he's still a guy who's ceiling could still wind up as a damn good #2 with a solid #3 starter as a high probability outcome.  That's a real valuable guy to have when Peavy and Lester are approaching FA, Lackey isn't getting younger and will only have one option year after this season, and Doubront continues to struggle out of camp for the second year in a row.

 

[Don Buddin's GS]

Nice profile on Henry Owens from Sports on Earth:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/71607602/red-sox-pitching-prospect-henry-owens-is-living-up-to-the-hype

 

[Plympton91]

Barnes seems to be getting closer.  Hopefully this was just a minor setback related to an early start and him trying to impress too quickly.
 
April 10, 2014 10:10 am
Matt Barnes getting closer to Triple-A assignment
by Michael Hurcomb | CBSSports.com

Red Sox starting pitcher prospect Matt Barnes, who was bothered by a shoulder injury in spring training, tossed 3 2/3 innings during an extended spring game Wednesday, per The Providence Journal. Barnes appears closer to an assignment with Triple-A Pawtucket.
 
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/playerpage/1947821/matt-barnes
 
 

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Kehrt is the definition of organizational filler. Hernandez could provide LH relief at some point down the line.

The bigger question is, once Barnes is back, how do people rank the starting 5 down there?

1. Webster
2. Barnes
3. De la Rosa
4. Workman
5. Ranaudo

 
So five weeks into the season, has anything changed?  If one of the starting five goes down, who do you call up?  Looking at the numbers, it's difficult to get a solid read on this horse race.  
 
I would say RDLR has made the most progress.  35K's in 39.1 IP along with 16BBs and 0 HRs allowed.
 
Ranaudo, interestingly, has the best K/IP with 37Ks in 39.2 IP, but he's also given up 23 BBs.
 
Webster only has a 2.45 ERA, but also only 26Ks in 44IP, and 18 BBs.
 
At first glance Workman hasn't seemed to do much, but he actually has 26Ks in 27 IP, and he's given up 6 HRs (!) already. Assuming that rate normalizes he may still be #1.
 
Barnes has thus far not given up a lot of hits, 16 in 23 IP, but his K rate has gone down. No HRs allow yet for him.  Considering this is really his first taste of AAA, I'd have to say it's a promising start.
 
It really is a crapshoot, my guess would be that they'd go with Workman still, but RDLR is making a more compelling case.

 

[ivanvamp]

Obviously it's very unlikely that all five of those guys become good MLB starters, but I do admit that I think it's a very exciting group to have in Pawtucket.  I'd like to think that at least two of them (three out of the six if you add in Owens) will be solid major leaguers.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Obviously it's very unlikely that all five of those guys become good MLB starters, but I do admit that I think it's a very exciting group to have in Pawtucket.  I'd like to think that at least two of them (three out of the six if you add in Owens) will be solid major leaguers.

Another way of looking at this would be to consider trade value. I would think that each of these five guys have fairly similar trade value right now, with Owens having more.  You're right that it is highly unlikely that all of these guys will become ML starters. It would be great if the FO could identify who is more likely to flame out, and focus trade discussions around those guys.  
 
It is an exciting group of guys but none of them are really setting themselves apart from the rest of the pack.

 

[Plympton91]

To me,
 
RDLR is basically Manny Delcarmen, who might have a couple seemingly decent seasons in middle relief that will be more runs of good luck than anything else.
 
Ranaudo is a 13th man on the pitching staff at best.
 
Webster might make it as a power set up man/closer a la Jim Johnson if he gets a bit more command of his sinking fastball, otherwise, he'll be a 13th man as well.
 
Workman is a good 5th starter or a very good set up man, the choice is where the team sees the most need.
 
Barnes I haven't seen enough of to know how he'll work out, and Owens is clearly the best of the bunch with a top half of the rotation ceiling.

 

[RoDaddy]

All things considered, I'm very happy with how things are progressing with this once in a generation large number of quality arms.  I don't think any of them are quite ready for a long term prime time gig, but even there, RDLR, Webster an Workman could provide a month or so of decent fill-in if needed.  They all need more seasoning - that's why they're in Pawtucket - but so far, so good.

 

[WenZink]

To me,
 
RDLR is basically Manny Delcarmen, who might have a couple seemingly decent seasons in middle relief that will be more runs of good luck than anything else.
 
Ranaudo is a 13th man on the pitching staff at best.
 
Webster might make it as a power set up man/closer a la Jim Johnson if he gets a bit more command of his sinking fastball, otherwise, he'll be a 13th man as well.
 
Workman is a good 5th starter or a very good set up man, the choice is where the team sees the most need.
 
Barnes I haven't seen enough of to know how he'll work out, and Owens is clearly the best of the bunch with a top half of the rotation ceiling.

 
While I'm frustrated by the inconsistency of the trio of De La Rosa-Webster-Ranaudo, both game to game and often within each game, I think your assessment is too pessimistic and may stem from a similar sense of frustration.
 
The Yankees would put any one of these guys in their rotation, right now, given the injuries to Nova, Pineda and Sabathia.  The Angels started the season with three unproven pitchers (Richards, Skaggs and Santiago) in their rotation, and they have virtually no decent alternatives in their farm system.  Even the Rays are scraping the bottom of the barrel to fill their rotation in the wake of injuries.
 
If RDLR/Webster/Ranaudo were in the organization of at least a dozen other teams they'd be succeeding or failing at the MLB level.
 
The biggest problem is that the Sox have zero flexibility on their 25 man roster, with only Workman, from season's start, having options left.  Barring injury, the Sox can't shuttle any AAA pitchers in and out.  Injuries will happen, of course, but right now it's frustrating.  The Pawtucket rotation is full, and at some point the Sox will have to fish-and-cut-bait.  These pitchers probably have far more value, in the short run, to another MLB team than to the Red Sox. 

 

[WenZink]

A 37 pitch 1st inning for Webster today, for the Pawsox in Indianapolis.  At least 3 hard hit balls, 2 doubles, a wall, although the inning was extended a batter by a Cecchini error.  As I write, I noticed that Webster recovered in the 2nd inning with just 14 pitches and 2 K's.
 
All in all, though, it would be nice to see some consistency out of either RDLR or Webster (not to mention Ranaudo).  Although their ERA's are good to respectable, there have been a lot of "comebacks" after a bad early inning or great starts marred by a poor last inning.  I'm just not sure any of the three are considered reliable as even a fill-in starter with the big club.  If, for instance, the Sox found themselves with a rainout rescheduled as part of a DH (giving them 6 games in 5 days), the last thing they'd want is to have one of their Pawsox starters come up and and have to depart in the 3rd inning.  My assumption, if they faced that situation, they'd add Britton as the 26th man, and give the start to Capuano.
 
I've preached patience, even while I'm impatient.  But the meter is running on all of the Pawsox starters, save the younger Barnes.  Amfox has noted that the severe 40 man roster crunch doesn't come until the end of next year, but that means that by next year the Sox want to be able to evaluate (at a AAA level) younger pitchers like Owens, Johnson and Couch before making decisions on their 40-man roster/Rule V draft eligibility.  That means that RDLR/Webster/Ranaudo can't continue their post-graduate work forever.
 
Edit:  And after climbing out on the ledge, Webster coaxes me back in, retiring the next 12 men he faced in order on 48 pitches. Including the last out of his 37- pitch first, he retired 13 in a row with 7 K's.  Allowed 3 H, 2 ER, 2 ER, 1BB, 7K  in 5 IP.
 
Second Edit:  Even after 85 pitches, they elect to bring out Webster for the 6th inning, and he K's 2 more before a walk and single cause him to leave the game after 5.2 IP.  Total 9 K/2 BB. 103 pitches - 66 strikes.

 

[RoDaddy]

Another good Webster outing today. Over the last month, he's not only been good, but CONSISTENTLY good.  Maybe he's taking it to the next level as we all hoped.  Remember, he's still only 24

 

[Niastri]

It sounds almost like a sink or swim moment for Webster. No more coddling for him. Usually they pull a prospect after that long of an inning, even in the first.

It's good that he swam.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

So with Workman and RDLR winning the race to get promoted as fill ins, I wonder if it means we get to see Owens, or even Johnson, get a AAA start or two.  Chris Hernandez looked good in a recent start and I've always felt he could fill the LOOGY role some day, so I imagine they won't rush HO, but I would love to see how his stuff translates.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

So with Workman and RDLR winning the race to get promoted as fill ins, I wonder if it means we get to see Owens, or even Johnson, get a AAA start or two.  Chris Hernandez looked good in a recent start and I've always felt he could fill the LOOGY role some day, so I imagine they won't rush HO, but I would love to see how his stuff translates.

Looks like Speier is reporting that Steven Wright is ready to rejoin PawSox rotation.

 

[WenZink]

Looks like Speier is reporting that Steven Wright is ready to rejoin PawSox rotation.

 
I heard that Wright will pitch for the PawSox tomorrow night.  He fills one spot in the rotation, and I'm doubtful that the Sox would promote someone from Portland unless they feel they're ready to stay at AAA.  And given that we don't know how long Doubront and Buchholz are on the shelf I'm not sure how long the spots will remain open.  (Not to mention that the Sox may try to get "re-hab" starts for both Buch and Doubront.)  I actually think Keith Couch is the most ready to be promoted from Portland since he's dominated AA (17-3) for almost a year and a half and is a year older than Johnson.

 

[dewystoetap]

I know "you can never have enough pitching", but I think we have reached that point. I love homegrown talent as much as anyone and enjoy watching X and JBJ playing every day. I believe the Sox should have dealt a few of these guys before they were exposed and trade value fell. As has been said, very unlikely they all make it and you have to evaluate who has the best chance and sell high on the others.

 

[Rasputin]

I know "you can never have enough pitching", but I think we have reached that point. I love homegrown talent as much as anyone and enjoy watching X and JBJ playing every day. I believe the Sox should have dealt a few of these guys before they were exposed and trade value fell. As has been said, very unlikely they all make it and you have to evaluate who has the best chance and sell high on the others.

Someone's getting traded for a LF in a couple months.

 

[Drek717]

I know "you can never have enough pitching", but I think we have reached that point. I love homegrown talent as much as anyone and enjoy watching X and JBJ playing every day. I believe the Sox should have dealt a few of these guys before they were exposed and trade value fell. As has been said, very unlikely they all make it and you have to evaluate who has the best chance and sell high on the others.

The problem is that none of these guys have really taken command as the guy you keep.
 
Also, I wouldn't say any of them have been exposed.  They've all long been viewed as mid to back of the rotation types with (except for Workman) the raw potential to take the next step.  RDLR looked like a guy doing exactly that last night.  Webster was dominant in his last AAA start, and Ranaudo has arguably been the most consistent of the bunch in Pawtucket.
 
That said, they are all and have always been 50's to 80's Baseball America/Prospectus types.  Teams aren't willing to blow you away for one of those guys.  Most teams have one or two of those guys.  Boston has five (with probably a 25-50 guy in Owens to boot).  We aren't landing Stanton with one of them.  They'd be a nice secondary piece in that kind of deal, but it's the Red Sox positional guys who carry real trade value, namely Bogaerts and Bradley, and they have plans for most all of those guys.
 
Maybe they could have moved one of them for Dexter Fowler this off-season.  They're pretty comparable prospects to Jordan Lyles.  But with Bradley in-house ready to take over CF that's a pretty expensive price to pay for a $7M 4th OF (that we do now actually need, but c'est la vie).  Meanwhile Peavy is gone after this year, Buchholz was a question mark who basically couldn't break 90 the last time we saw him, Doubront is a riddle wrapped in an enigma as to what we get start to start, Lester is a FA to be, and Lackey had one very good season on the heels of a couple awful seasons, so if he collapsed in 2014 the club likely wouldn't have taken even his league minimum option simply to free up the roster spot.  
 
The two starters definitely under club control for 2015 right now have been the two least effective and are the two currently on the DL.  I can't really blame the FO for being conservative with their AAA depth.  The Sox need to get their own SP questions answered before they go dealing pieces.  Maybe that means the guys who eventually do get traded lose some value off their peak by then, maybe the guys who don't cut it instead wind up in the bullpen.  But if two of the five pan out I'd rather get nothing from the other three than trade one or both of the guys who will pan out because they where misidentified.
 
The next wave of pitchers is when the Sox can look to trade aggressively I think.  If the mix of Johnson, Callahan, Kukuk, Light, Ball, Stankiewicz, Mercedes, Littrell, Buttrey, and Diaz can produce two or three worthwhile AA-AAA prospects within the next year or two that is where the trading fire power will come from.