Pats Roster Planning: Defense

RedOctober3829

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With 2020 looking bleak in terms of playoffs at the moment, I thought it would be a good exercise to see where the Patriots roster stands for 2021 and what areas need upgraded the most. I will also have some free agency targets at each position. It will also be good to see what draftable talent would help the roster as well.

2020 Offseason At A Glance
The salary cap is currently in flux for the 2021 league year. It was supposed to raise up to $210 million, but the pandemic has really hit the league hard. The league and NFLPA have agreed that the salary cap will have a floor of $175 million which is a $23 million decrease from 2020. While the exact figure is not known yet, it is a very good assumption that it will come down between $175 and $190 million. This decrease will hamper a lot of teams in the league, but not the Patriots. The Patriots, according to OverTheCap, on a $176 million base salary cap will be $62 million under the cap which will be 4th most in the NFL. If the cap goes above $176, they will obviously have even more space with which to work with. There is also a lot of players who can be cut and save even more space.

2021 Draft Picks
1st Round
2nd Round
3rd Round was taken away due to the taping incident in Cinncinati
3rd Round comp pick for Brady
4th Round
4th Round comp pick for KVN
4th Round comp pick for Roberts
5th Round
7th Round

Let's take a look at the roster position-by-position to see what we have(and cap number) and what we need to replace.

QB
Jarrett Stidham($1.009 million)
Cam Newton, Brian Hoyer UFA
--Have we seen enough from Cam Newton or Brian Hoyer to know if they have a future in New England? Newton has shown some flashes, but post-COVID has only played one half of football worthy of a starting QB in this league. It will depend on how far they fall this season to see if they are in position to draft a Justin Fields, a Trey Lance, or a Zach Wilson in the first round. Do they bring Cam Newton back on a 2 year deal to buy time to find the next guy? Do you sit Newton the rest of the year to properly evaluate Stidham? Do you go after another veteran QB on the free agent market? Bottom line, there's a lot of questions at the most important position in football. One name that will not be known until the offseason, but Jimmy Garropolo is a potential cap casualty.

Free Agent Bridge QBs Available(and reasonable....Dak is not getting free)
Jacoby Brissett
Tyrod Taylor
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Mitch Trubisky
Jameis Winston

Realistic Draft Targets
Justin Fields(even he may be unrealistic)
Trey Lance
Zach Wilson
Jamie Newman
Kyle Trask

RB/FB
Sony Michel($3.063 million)
Damien Harris($1.071 million)
Brandon Bolden($1.987 million)
Dan Vitale($1.287 million)
JJ Taylor($780,000)
Rex Burkhead, James White, Jakob Johson--UFAs
--I think we've seen enough from Harris to think he's someone capable of being a good contributor to this team next year. Between him and Michel, it's a decent combination. But, they'll need to get a pass catching back in the fold plus another RB in the draft as Michel has one year left before they have to decide on his 5th year option which I would hope they'd decline. Is JJ Taylor going to get a chance to see what else he has?

Free Agents Available
Kenyan Drake
Le'Veon Bell
Todd Gurley
James Conner

Draft Targets
Travis Etienne
Najee Harris
Kenneth Gainwell
Chuba Hubbard
Zamir White
Kylin Hill
Master Teague
Pooka Williams

WR
Julian Edelman($6.66 million)
N'Keal Harry($2.75 million)
Matthew Slater($3.025 million)
Jakobi Meyers($853,000)
Gunner Olszewski($850,000)
Marquise Lee($987,000)
Damiere Byrd--UFA
--Boy, does this position group needs serious work. There just isn't enough explosive talent here to be considered a serious contender. Call it for what it is: one of the worst position groups in the league. Edelman may not be on this team next year as he is a shell of himself due to injuries. Cutting Edelman would give the Patriots another $4 million in cap room. There needs to be a major injection of talent to this room. Belichick does not make it a habit of spending money on wide receivers, but with Brady no longer here to elevate average players there needs to be a change in philosophy. Harry can still be a useful player, but he is clearly not a #1 WR so they need to bring one in and also take multiple swings at the position in free agency. As @Super Nomario said, they just don't take enough. I'd go after Allen Robinson or JuJu if they hit the market. JuJu may slip to the market as Pittsburgh is currently over the cap in 2021 and have him and Bud Dupree to pay. Chris Godwin is another player on a team with a lot of cap related decisions to make. For a slot receiver, Curtis Samuel would be a very nice fit. He can play inside, outside, or even an occasional handoff.

Free Agents Available
Allen Robinson
Chris Godwin
Curtis Samuel
Sammy Watkins
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Kenny Golladay
Marvin Jones
Dede Westbrook
Kenny Stills
John Ross
Will Fuller

Draft Targets
Ja'Marr Chase
Devonta Smith
Rashod Bateman
Jaylen Waddle
Terrace Marshall
Rondale Moore
Seth Williams
Chris Olave
Nico Collins
Tarik Black
Reggie Roberson

TE
Matt LaCosse($1.45 million)
Devin Asiasi($1.041 million)
Ryan Izzo($867,000)
Dalton Keene($1.022 million)
Jake Burt--UFA
--This is still a very much unknown position. Bill spent 2 picks on Asiasi and Keene and we know virtually nothing about them 8 games into the year. Izzo has been OK at best and bad at the worst. LaCosse still has a spot on the roster due to his COVID opt out. I would like them to get Asiasi and Keene a lot of playing time and targets down the stretch of the year to see what they are. They badly need a tight end who can be a good receiver and a serviceable blocker. Two guys in the draft who I'd target are Kyle Pitts or Pat Frieremuth, but can you really spend a high draft pick on a TE when you spent 2 picks last year? After those guys, there's a big drop off. I'd moreso look in the free agent market to add a veteran TE. Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith would be my picks to go after

Free Agents Available
Hunter Henry
Rob Gronkowski(only half kidding....but come back Gronk)
Jared Cook
Jonnu Smith

OT
Marcus Cannon($9.62 million)
Isaiah Wynn($3.64 million)
Yodny Cajuste($985,000)
Korey Cunningham($920,000)
Justin Herron($823,117)
--I think the team is set at tackle next year between a combination of Cannon, Wynn, Herron, and even Onwenu but for the sake of this exercise I'm treating Onwenu as a guard. If they are confident Herron can take the job, they can cut Cannon with a cap savings of over $7 million.

IOL
Shaq Mason($9.775 million)
Michael Onwenu($830,000)
Hjalte Froholdt($1.03 million)
Joe Thuney, David Andrews, Jermaine Elumenuor, James Ferentz--UFA's
--They are extremely thin in the middle of the OL for 2021. They really need to bring David Andrews back to stabilize the line. Michael Onwenu should be able to step in for Joe Thuney at LG. They'll need to draft a depth guy or two at the back of the draft. I don't really want to list people for this because it is very tough to know who fits the Patriots system. I'll wait until the offseason to assess this.

IDL
Beau Allen($3.95 million)
Byron Cowart($925,000)
Michael Barnett($780,000)
Lawrence Guy, Adam Butler, Deatrich Wise--UFA's
--This is a position that needs a lot of work. They need an impact interior pass rusher plus either having Allen healthy or re-sign Guy. The impact guys are going to have to come through the draft.

Free Agents Available
Leonard Williams
Sheldon Rankins
Sheldon Day

Draft Targets
Marvin Wilson
Darius Stills
Jay Tufele
Osa Odighizuwa
Jordan Davis

EDGE/OLB
Chase Winovich($1.099 million)
Anfernee Jennings($1.044 million)
John Simon, Derek Rivers, Brandon Copeland, Shilique Calhoun--UFA's
--This is a position group that needs serious work. John Simon simply can't come back. He is useless against the run. Derek Rivers can rush the passer a bit, but just hasn't played enough football over the years. The usage of Winovich is mind-boggling to me. There needs to be a serious investment both in FA and in the draft here. Jennings needs to figure out whether he's an edge guy or if he's a linebacker. But, both him and Winovich have to play in order to properly evaluate them.

Free Agents Available
Bud Dupree
Matt Judon
Shaq Barrett
Melvin Ingram
Trent Murphy
Solomon Thomas

Draft Targets
Greg Rousseau
Carlos Basham
Kwity Paye
Jayson Oweh
Xavier Thomas

LB
Dont'a Hightower($12.4 million)
Ja'Whaun Bentley($995,000)
Josh Uche($1.224 million)
Brandon King($1.666 million)
Cassh Maluia($780,000)
--The return of Hightower should stabilize this position out a bit, but without him we have seen that Bentley is a liability on the field in a starting role. Uche saw his first action today and looked promising. Maluia has been primarily special teams. If the Pats find themselves in the top 5-10, it would be tough to turn down Micah Parsons or Dylan Moses.

Free Agents Available
Lavonte David
Denzel Perryman
De'Vondre Campbell

Draft Targets
Micah Parsons
Dylan Moses
Chazz Surratt

CB
Stephon Gilmore($16.4 million)
Jonathan Jones($7.1 million)
Joejuan Williams($1.8 million)
Myles Bryant($780,000)
Jason McCourty, Justin Bethel--UFAs
JC Jackson--RFA
--The big question is whether Stephon Gilmore is going to be on the roster or not. A trade would cost over $8 million in dead money which would be a substantial hit. The bigger hit would be on the field as they'd lose their best defensive player. JC Jackson would step into his role, but it would be a pretty big downgrade even if JC plays well. JMac almost assuredly won't be back. I'd be dipping into the free agent market as there are some nice targets available.

Free Agents Available
Jimmy Smith
Shaq Griffin
Rasul Douglas
Logan Ryan
Brian Poole
Tre Herndon(RFA)

Draft Targets
Patrick Surtain
Shaun Wade
Caleb Farley
Tyson Campbell
Asante Samuel Jr.
Eric Stokes
Derion Kendrick
TJ Carter

Safety
Devin McCourty($11.1 million)
Patrick Chung($5.3 million)
Adrian Phillips($3.5 million)
Kyle Dugger($1.89 million)
Terrence Brooks, Cody Davis--UFA's
--Other than a small move here or there, this is probably the group you'll see unless DMC or Chung retire. You can't cut or trade either player without a significant dead cap hit. It does not look like a top heavy safety draft class, but may be deep with 2nd-3rd round talent. Jevon Holland is the top rated safety.

Specialists
Jake Bailey($922,000)
Joe Cardona($1.1 million)
Nick Folk-UFA
--Punter and LS are set. Folk has kicked well, but they have Justin Rohrwasser on the practice squad. If he improves he will take Folk's spot. If not, they could bring Folk back or hit the open market.

Free Agents Available
Matt Prater
Zane Gonzalez
 

scottyno

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I know most people here are probably ready to shove Cam out the door, but I think with him it really depends on what changed between the first 3 games and his performance after that and why. The Cam of the first 3 games is someone you can win games with, with a good defense and run game, the Cam of the Denver and San Fran games is a guy that you aren't going anywhere with. Did he hurt his shoulder, is it some sort of issue post covid or is he just cooked? The fact that despite the last 2 weeks he was still the qb today over Stidham should tell you enough about Stidham that the pats don't think he's the answer or he'd already be playing. I could see bringing Cam back on a bridge 2 year contract to start until whoever they think actually is the future qb is ready.
 

j-man

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what u guys need is this

1 TE'S pass catching
2 WR'S bryd is a 3 or 4 on a super bowl team
3 EDGE/DE
4 LB
5 K
6 FS
7 CB
 

DourDoerr

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They're not re-signing Cam. They've seen enough and they'll play out this string at best. He's not good at what the Pats like to do and he can't play to his strengths anymore. I'd go QB 1, and DT 2. They just spent a lot of draft capital on TE's.
 

shoosh77

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Calling it here, Brady and Tampa part ways and he comes back for one more run with a clean cap and lots of picks. SuperBowl and then retire.
 

E5 Yaz

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Calling it here, Brady and Tampa part ways and he comes back for one more run with a clean cap and lots of picks. SuperBowl and then retire.
Reading through the UFAs, I am thinking that James White and/or David Andrews wind up in orange
 

BigSoxFan

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Reading through the UFAs, I am thinking that James White and/or David Andrews wind up in orange
If I’m Miami, I’m landing one of the stud RBs in the first round in Etienne, Harris, Hubbard, Williams, etc. and then signing White. With the Houston draft capital, they can afford to do so and it would really open up their offense.
 

E5 Yaz

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If I’m Miami, I’m landing one of the stud RBs in the first round in Etienne, Harris, Hubbard, Williams, etc. and then signing White.
Perhaps, but White (or pre-injury Burkhead) is exactly the back Brady needs.
 

BigSoxFan

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Perhaps, but White (or pre-injury Burkhead) is exactly the back Brady needs.
Agreed. I see a FL competition developing for White. Miami will be able to offer more money and Brady will be like 44 so White will have a decision to make. Either way, he’d be in a much better situation than in NE.
 
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I'd hate to see White leave, but given the situation with his family, I think signing a deal with Miami or TB would be good for him, especially to be close to his mom.
 

SMU_Sox

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First off, thank you, @RedOctober3829

Let's look at who they have on the roster next year: Harris, Sony, Bolden, and JJ Taylor.
2022: Harris, Sony if they activate his 5th year option worth around 4m, Taylor.

With White and Rex as UFA's this year and Bolden set to leave after 2021 (He will be 33 in 2022) they are going to lose their veteran leadership as well as 2 STers and all around backs in Bolden and Rex. White is an incredible receiving back/3rd down back.

I see them needing 2-4 types of backs: 1) White is getting older/is-an-UFA and they need to draft another receiving back. 2) They could also use an outside runner, a faster runner - someone who can run outside zone or off-tackle well. 3) STer with an all-around skill-set. Or STer with a specific skill-set. 4) a between the tackles runner to replace Sony. Sony has one year left on the team.

2 and 4 are the easiest to project to the next level.
There is overlap between skills and some backs will be in more than one category.

Here are the backs in the draft that would fill those roles. I have 5-10 backs to go.

1 - the receiving/receiver down back:
1) Demetric Felton - He runs routes like a WR. He has sick double moves, fakes, and overall deception in his routes is excellent. He can run outside zone but at 185 pounds he isn't a between the tackles guy. His pass pro also suffers because of his size. He is a better receiver and route runner than Davis but Davis is an overall better runner and in pass pro.
2a) Pooka Williams
2b) Malik Davis


2 - the outside zone/faster back:
1) Michael Carter - I have been beating the drum for him for a while now. He is the perfect compliment to Harris' inside prowess.
2) Kenneth Gainwell - He is a mini-Etienne. Home-run threat. His vision is iffy and he is only 190.
3) Malik Davis
4) Jermar Jefferson
5) Pooka Willianms
6) Javian Hawkins

3 - all - around back and/or STer:
1) Keaontay Ingram - patient with good vision. Nice cuts. Has an issue with his hands as a receiver
2) Chuba Hubbard (Hubbard's receiving skills and pass pro are... well undeveloped or poor). He has some of the best decision making and vision I have seen. He can run any scheme. However he is a little light at 206, he isn't a super athlete and his complimentary skills are lacking. I had to put him somewhere though.
3) Trey Sermon
4) Jaret Patterson - reminds me of a slightly more athletic Devin Singeltary.
5) Kylin Hill
6) Max Borghi
7) Rakeem Boyd

4 - the inside runner:
1a) Zamir White - Reminds me of Harris' with the way he can attack guys downhill and bulldoze them.
1b) Master Teague - best pass-pro of all runners. Inside the tackles power runner like Zamir White.
3) JaTarvious Whitlow
4) Khalil Herbert
5) C.J. Verdell
6) Mohammed Ibrahim
7) Kennedy Brooks
8) Stephen Carr


I don't think they take a starting back so I am not going to include Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, and Javonte Williams. Etienne is not a between the tackles runner unless it is gap/power. Etienne is an outside zone or gap/power only runner. Harris is scheme versatile and is probably the best all around back in the class. He routinely lines up out wide too. Javonte Williams is a riser. He is also scheme versatile but would excel between the tackles where he can use his power.


EDIT: TL;DR: If I had to pick 2 I would take an outside guy Michael Carter (HM Kenneth Gainwell), and a receiver-RB, Demetric Felton. Felton is definitely going to be available day 3 and probably late (he might even be a UDFA). Carter might need to be taken sometime in round 3. Impossible to know now - going off of what I am hearing from NFL-tied to guys.
 
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SMU_Sox

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Nothing would be more "f you, I'm Bill Belichick" than taking a RB with their first pick. Mark it down, that's happening...
The funny thing is if they took Etienne that would be a scheme fit and a home run swing. Etienne is also someone who is your explosive lightning to Thunder (Harris). I’m not saying I want BB to draft him but if they did it might be the first time he selected an RB in the first where it worked out.

I doubt he does that though. The team was much more complete in 2006 and 2018 than it is now.
 

BaseballJones

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Jacobi Meyers is a keeper. 59 catches, 729 yards. No TD receptions but had 2 TD passes.
So is Byrd. 47 rec, 604 yds, 12.9 y/c

Neither is a WR1, but both are legitimate NFL receivers. The Pats need guys like this. They'll get even more favorable matchups if the Pats land a true WR1 this offseason.
 

bsj

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There is no one on the current roster who is a legit #1, nor likely a 2 either. Meyers is a nice depth option. But the best case scenario I can see is signing a FA #1, drafting a #2, having Edelman back as the slot guy, and then filling out the roster with Jakobi, Gunner, Lee, and Byrd.
 

Captaincoop

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It will be surprising if Edelman comes back to the Patriots. Meanwhile, Byrd and Jakobi may be low end #2s, but IMO neither needs to be pushed to #4, at least not on a team with numerous gaping holes.

They absolutely need a WR1, and if Julian doesn't come back they should throw Gunner, a cheap FA flyer, and/or a day 3 pick out there at slot in camp and see what sticks.

Use the rest of the money and draft picks elsewhere (D Line, LB, QB...)
 

Captaincoop

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Note that Byrd is a FA.
Forgot about that. But doing a bit of a dive into the FA market - he shouldn't be expensive to retain. Looks like a deeper FA class than last year and he's not going to show up statistically higher than the 50-75 range among NFL wide receivers (and likely lower than that). Can't imagine the cost will be prohibitive if Bill wants him back.

The top 15 guys are going to get contracts much higher than 1m/yr if the past few years are a guide. I haven't tried to rank the FAs, but he's probably not in that group.
 

Shelterdog

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It will be surprising if Edelman comes back to the Patriots. Meanwhile, Byrd and Jakobi may be low end #2s, but IMO neither needs to be pushed to #4, at least not on a team with numerous gaping holes.

They absolutely need a WR1, and if Julian doesn't come back they should throw Gunner, a cheap FA flyer, and/or a day 3 pick out there at slot in camp and see what sticks.

Use the rest of the money and draft picks elsewhere (D Line, LB, QB...)
They could clearly use a WR1 and there should be some good ones available at 15 but I'd frankly be a little surprised if they go that way when the also need front seven, secondary, TE and even--depending on Thuney, Andrews-- and their internal assessments of their other players-maybe some o-line help. Based on how they've been playing the last couple of seasons I think BB is trying to build a bit of a bully team--a big physical tough team that's going to run the ball and tackle hard--and it's tough to make a bully team by adding Jaylen Waddle types.
 

Captaincoop

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They could clearly use a WR1 and there should be some good ones available at 15 but I'd frankly be a little surprised if they go that way when the also need front seven, secondary, TE and even--depending on Thuney, Andrews-- and their internal assessments of their other players-maybe some o-line help. Based on how they've been playing the last couple of seasons I think BB is trying to build a bit of a bully team--a big physical tough team that's going to run the ball and tackle hard--and it's tough to make a bully team by adding Jaylen Waddle types.
I totally agree - it wouldn't fit the MO to pick a WR at 15. Perhaps Bill sees a fit in the FA market and spends money there the way he did with Gilmore at CB.

I'm almost willing to bet money they trade down from 15.
 

Harry Hooper

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Reportedly the Pats had identified only 2 QBs in the 2020 draft who could start as rookies: Burrow & Herbert. Maybe they think there are 3 in the 2021 draft, but they won't be drafting that high in any event. Add in BB's history and general philosophy about QBs, and it seems inevitable a veteran QB is starting for the Pats next season.
 

Shelterdog

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I totally agree - it wouldn't fit the MO to pick a WR at 15. Perhaps Bill sees a fit in the FA market and spends money there the way he did with Gilmore at CB.

I'm almost willing to bet money they trade down from 15.
I'm not so sure about the trade down--they didn't trade down or only moved down a slot or tow when they had the top 17 picks that became Warren Mayo Seymour and Solder. There's likely to be a player available at 15 (especially with three or four qbs at a minimum going in front of them) there's a pretty good chance they think there's someone available who can be a high level starter from day one. If BB absolutely falls in love with some random higher end player like a Caleb Fairley or Rashawn Slater my assumption is that they pick that player.
 

BigSoxFan

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Looks like the Patriots have the following picks:

1st round: #15
2nd round: #46
3rd round: Comp pick (Brady) - #77 forfeited due to stupid Cincy penalty
4th round: #110, Comp pick (Van Noy), Comp pick (Collins)
5th round: #141
6th round: #161
7th round: #205

Given the extensive roster needs, I think there is a strong argument to trade down if a QB we like isn't there. Moving down 5-7 spots would allow the Pats to recoup the 3rd round pick they lost. Moving to the end of Round 1 likely nets them an additional 2nd and 3rd/4th. The FA period should tell some of the story. If they go on a spending spree, the need to trade down may be diminished a little bit. They really could go either direction at this point. They have the ability to move into the top 6-7 pretty easily - would require combining their 1st/2nd. Could go even further if they dangled a future 1st, which now actually holds a lot more value given the uncertainty of the team.
 

E5 Yaz

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Patriots reserve/future signings:
K Roberto Aguayo
QB Jake "State Farm" Dolegala
DT Bill Murray
G Ross Reynolds
K Justin Rohrwasser
CB D'Angelo Ross
WR Devin Smith
DT Nick Thurman
WR Kristian Wilkerson (Kyed binky)
WR Isaiah Zuber
 

bsj

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It will be surprising if Edelman comes back to the Patriots. Meanwhile, Byrd and Jakobi may be low end #2s, but IMO neither needs to be pushed to #4, at least not on a team with numerous gaping holes.

They absolutely need a WR1, and if Julian doesn't come back they should throw Gunner, a cheap FA flyer, and/or a day 3 pick out there at slot in camp and see what sticks.

Use the rest of the money and draft picks elsewhere (D Line, LB, QB...)
LIke i said...."best case" would be him back in the slot. I agree Edelman is a long shot.

I think we need more depth than just a WR1 and then rolling with what we have UNLESS we are also bringing in a proven pass catcher at TE. This team needs weapons plural. If we add a top WR1 and a, i dont know, Hunter Henry type, I agree Jakobi can serve as a valuable enough #2. But if TE will be more rookies/lottery picks, I feel we need better at the 2 spot.
 

Van Everyman

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LIke i said...."best case" would be him back in the slot. I agree Edelman is a long shot.
It’s interesting to think of guys like Edelman, DMac, Hightower, Chung (and White to maybe a lesser extent). Unlike most guys who have been great over the course of their careers and begin to see the end of the road, these guys aren’t used to losing and hoping to get a chance to win just one before they retire. They’re used to winning and being in the playoffs every single year.

So what are they looking for? It’s not just one big payday vs. winning another ring, I would think. It’s probably also, “Do I want to mentor young guys or do I want another chance to be in a locker room with a winning mentality?”

I look at a guy like DMac and I think he relishes the mentor role. But Edelman? He’s a guy who seems to thrive on the camaraderie of a competitive football team.

It’s going to be interesting to see how this part of it plays out.
 

lexrageorge

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Edelman is likely finished. He struggled when he was healthy, and then could not recover from a minor knee procedure. Few receivers are productive at age 35 coming off knee injuries. Welker was done at 34; Moss was a shell of himself at 35; Ocho-cinco was useless at 34; Troy Brown had all of 384 yards receiving at age 35. I don't see Edelman being productive anywhere in 2021.
 

BaseballJones

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Edelman is likely finished. He struggled when he was healthy, and then could not recover from a minor knee procedure. Few receivers are productive at age 35 coming off knee injuries. Welker was done at 34; Moss was a shell of himself at 35; Ocho-cinco was useless at 34; Troy Brown had all of 384 yards receiving at age 35. I don't see Edelman being productive anywhere in 2021.
I agree with you. But I don't think he needs to be a starter to help the team. Could a diminished Edelman still be a useful NFL receiver? I think so. He wouldn't start or be the go-to guy, but a diminished Edelman would probably face off against LBs or weaker DBs, who he still might be able to beat pretty regularly.
 

lexrageorge

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I agree with you. But I don't think he needs to be a starter to help the team. Could a diminished Edelman still be a useful NFL receiver? I think so. He wouldn't start or be the go-to guy, but a diminished Edelman would probably face off against LBs or weaker DBs, who he still might be able to beat pretty regularly.
I think you may be underestimating how diminished Edelman is likely to be next season. WR's tend to fall off steep cliffs in their mid-30's; he's unlikely to break an NFL roster next season based on what we saw this season.
 

Super Nomario

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Pricing middle of the first round seems to yield one of two options:
  • Take the 3rd or 4th best at position like QB, DE, or OT;
  • Take the best at a position like LB or OG or TE.
I think this is a good way of thinking about it. I will add that this particular year, there is no one standout edge rusher, so they might get their pick at 15. They also might get their pick at CB, or close to it, a position they value pretty highly (and one that, while not a major need for 2021, figures to be one shortly thereafter given Gilmore's contract status).
 

Super Nomario

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Nov 5, 2000
13,223
Mansfield MA
I think you may be underestimating how diminished Edelman is likely to be next season. WR's tend to fall off steep cliffs in their mid-30's; he's unlikely to break an NFL roster next season based on what we saw this season.
And yet he still had more receiving yards in 6 games than N'Keal Harry had all season!
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
43,666
What if they have a guy like Jimmy or Wentz on the roster at that point though?
Well sure, but I'm just approaching it from where we are now--no apparent starter on the roster. If we get to the draft at that point, then I think we see what happens.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
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Oct 1, 2015
11,985
I think you may be underestimating how diminished Edelman is likely to be next season. WR's tend to fall off steep cliffs in their mid-30's; he's unlikely to break an NFL roster next season based on what we saw this season.
You might be right. I think he has one more year left in him, but I could be wrong.
 

ShaneTrot

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Nov 17, 2002
5,355
Overland Park, KS
And yet he still had more receiving yards in 6 games than N'Keal Harry had all season!
I keep seeing think pieces (Tom Curran has definitely said this) in which writers say that Harry won't be on the team next year. I think it would be ludicrous to give up on him after this year. Am I crazy?