Pats Roster Planning: Defense

tims4wins

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Do we even want to do that? He turns 31 in September so not sure I'd be too excited about an extension. For point of comparison, Ty Law's last Pro Bowl season was his age 31 season. For Revis, it was his age 30 season. Both of those guys were physical corners like Gilmore who relied more on technique vs. athleticism so seem like decent comps.

I think I'd rather bank on JC developing than Gilmore holding off Father Time.
I suppose they could go the Brady route and give him a one time $7m parting gift or whatever then just go for the comp pick in 2023. I was going to make the point that it felt like Law and Revis were more banged up around the same age, and that Gilmore is faster... but then remembered that Gilmore reportedly had a partially torn quad. I'd be hesitant to extend given that they don't know what he will look like in 2021. So you might be right that they may want to just do something to appease him for 2021 to keep the door open to a return in 2022 and beyond, but not lock them into something that could turn bad in a hurry.
 

DourDoerr

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A healed Gilmore for just 2 years seems a reasonable risk although IANAD, so I don’t know the percentages on how much that injury heals. Gives them some certainty and room to develop a replacement and/or fill other spots. This assumes BB won’t hamper the team cap-wise with perhaps a rookie QB deal to carve out some of that space.
 
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The decent look we got at JCJ as a true #1 corner last year (when Gilmore was out) was...not great. Not awful at all, and those 9 INTs are impressive. But I think I’d rather sign Gilmore to 2-3 year extension, deal JC for a 2nd if possible, and draft CB high this year or next.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Evan Lazar is high on NT Tyler Shelvin:

View: https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1377275744573870085


An absolute monster who is projected as a 3-4 nose tackle:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/tyler-shelvin/f8qy0zyx49

Of course, we all know who he is begging to be compared to but Shelvin is every bigger:

Shelvin: 6' 3" @ 362 lbs
Wilfork: 6' 2" @ 325 lbs

Whoo, boy. That's a big, big man in the middle:

View: https://youtu.be/F7Apzf-O1As


Could BB get him with the "Brady" pick in the 3rd round?
 

Captaincoop

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How many teams in the NFL right now play 3-4 enough that they are looking for a guy like him with a pick in the first 3 rounds?

It always swings back and forth, my sense is that there are more 3-4 base teams now than 10-15 years ago. Is that right?
 

nighthob

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Of course, we all know who he is begging to be compared to but Shelvin is every bigger:

Shelvin: 6' 3" @ 362 lbs
Wilfork: 6' 2" @ 325 lbs

Whoo, boy. That's a big, big man in the middle

Could BB get him with the "Brady" pick in the 3rd round?
I'll enjoy watching him tackle Zach Wilson with Connor McGovern's butt and causing a fumble return TD.
 

SMU_Sox

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The deal with Shelvin is yeah he is a monster and absolutely blows up running plays but he has had major issues keeping his weight under 375. He's faced team discipline for it from coach O. He gives you nothing as a pass rusher. He isn't explosive. He might be able to walk the center back into the QB from time to time but nothing consistent. Is Shelvin really worth the premium when you can get a guy like Quinton Bohanna (Not sure if SuperNomario watched or if that was the one before he jumped on) in the 6th? I don't know... honestly I would rather have Bohanna.

NT is fairly deep this year and what they do and if they invest in IDL is an interesting question. They don't really need to this year if they don't want to.

Alim McNeil is your top end option but he might be better in a 4-3 where he can use his explosiveness to penetrate. He doesn't have the longest arms so 2-gapping might not be ideal for him but he can eat up double teams. He doesn't have a ton of pass rush moves but his bull rush is deadly. Not a lot of guys at his weight have his type of explosion. He has the most upside of all the NTs but you could argue he is a scheme fit but not a perfect one especially if they need him to 2-gap.

We've covered Shelvin.

Behind Shelvin there are 5 big boys who could do the trick at NT: Khyiris Tonga out of BYU (can two-gap and anchor well but limited range), Roy Lopez out of Arizona (he isn't as dominant vs the run as you'd like), Tedarrel Slaton out of Florida (super inconsistent pad level and gets beaten more than you'd like in the run game), Bobby Brown III out of the death cult aka Texas A&M /barf, and my guy out of Kentuck, Quinton Bohanna. I am going to finalize my reports on Bobby Brown and Tonga today but between Bohanna, Tonga, and Bobby Brown they should be able to pick up a quality NT role-player sometime late day 3 or as a UDFA to compete with Carl Davis.

Bohanna showed me the best pure reps two-gapping and absolutely dominating the run every. single. snap. So he is my early binkie for that role.
 

Dduncan6er

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I believe weight concerns were a reason for Onwenu falling to the 6th last year. I don't remember hearing any issues about him in regards to weight after he was drafted, so maybe the team has a good diet and workout regiment for guys like that. Obviously it's dependent upon the player buying in but they have a recent success story with a guy who struggled with weight issues in college.
 

Bowser

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Bohanna showed me the best pure reps two-gapping and absolutely dominating the run every. single. snap. So he is my early binkie for that role.
He's also the nephew of Brian Ingram, former Pats (1982-1985) linebacker, so there's that.
 

Scoops Bolling

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I believe weight concerns were a reason for Onwenu falling to the 6th last year. I don't remember hearing any issues about him in regards to weight after he was drafted, so maybe the team has a good diet and workout regiment for guys like that. Obviously it's dependent upon the player buying in but they have a recent success story with a guy who struggled with weight issues in college.
Trent Brown was also under control weight-wise during his Patriots tenure, something that hasn't been the case for him everywhere.
 

SMU_Sox

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All good points my friends - I just don't like paying a day 1 or day 2 pick (unless 96) for a 2-down player, even a good one.

HT to @Super Nomario and others who also have said this (I think there was a lot of parallel pathing here #corporatebuzzwordbingo) but OT and CB are the big needs in the draft this year. I would add maybe a Hightower heir and an RB or two (one has to be a receiver). Depending on how they see Herron and Onwenu they might want to invest in multiple OTs (or do it anyway). They could also use a backup/prospect C to develop. Oh and they could use one more safety when and if DMC retires in the next 2years.

I would expect either a QB, CB, CB, OT, OT, RB, S in this draft. And that S might be a corner in college like DMC. Think Ambry Thomas out of Michigan.

If they want to go NT of the future they can get that late day 3 and not have to bother with Shelvin. Even peak Shelvin won't be a good pass rusher imo... although who would have guessed peak Onwenu would be an OT?

Corner is pretty deep this year. There are a ton of guys who are press-man types who have the length and athleticism they want. I could list like 10-11 who will be drafted. It is a good year to need a press-man corner.

I think Ambry Thomas is the guy I am the most interested in sometime day 2 or day 3. He is one of those opt-out guys whose biggest issue was play strength. He put on 10 pounds but we never saw him play at that weight. He also have safety type of traits and has the speed(4.3s) and range to do it. He is remarkably similar physically to DMC but like SuperNomario said - a lot of guys are physically similar to DMC but that doesn't mean much. So take that for what it is worth (not a ton).
 

BusRaker

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All good points my friends - I just don't like paying a day 1 or day 2 pick (unless 96) for a 2-down player, even a good one.
But isn't it true a 2-down player is playing probably at least 80% of snaps (75% + close third and fourth downs) considering it's first down almost twice as often as third down? Couldn't find this data anywhere so I used Pats last year and backed into # of second downs. I suppose some longer 2nd downs would be sat

Non-kicking down probability
First Down
42%​
Second Down
33%​
Third Down
23%​
Fourth Down
2%​
 

SMU_Sox

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But isn't it true a 2-down player is playing probably at least 80% of snaps (75% + close third and fourth downs) considering it's first down almost twice as often as third down? Couldn't find this data anywhere so I used Pats last year and backed into # of second downs. I suppose some longer 2nd downs would be sat

Non-kicking down probability
First Down
42%​
Second Down
33%​
Third Down
23%​
Fourth Down
2%​
It depends. You don’t always have a run stuffing guy out. If he’s that useless against the pass he will be out for obvious passing downs. Alan Branch played about 40% of defensive snaps in 2015 fully healthy. I could have been a little more specific because when I say a 1-2 down player I don’t mean every first or second down but rather he is only out on downs they think the opponent is going to run the ball. There are exceptions like if he is caught going against no huddle but rotational run stuffers don’t usually don’t get more than 50% or so of defensive snaps.
 

Jimbodandy

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It depends. You don’t always have a run stuffing guy out. If he’s that useless against the pass he will be out for obvious passing downs. Alan Branch played about 40% of defensive snaps in 2015 fully healthy. I could have been a little more specific because when I say a 1-2 down player I don’t mean every first or second down but rather he is only out on downs they think the opponent is going to run the ball. There are exceptions like if he is caught going against no huddle but rotational run stuffers don’t usually don’t get more than 50% or so of defensive snaps.
Yeah some of those first and second downs are "and 20" or "and we're behind 24 points", which are passing downs.
 

Jimbodandy

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Not sure how many of "were behind 24" to expect this season.
Yeah thats fair. Just saying that all first downs aren't the same. Probably makes more sense to call everything a passing down start listing running situations.

Pats were 31st in percentage of pass plays, and it was still almost 50%. The median was 59%, and many teams were well over 60%.
 

Section15Box113

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Per Matt Miller:

Spoke to a scout tonight who said they view Tulsa linebacker Zaven Collins as a top 15 pick.​
Mentioned #Cowboys and #Patriots as landing spots.​

Collins’ combination of size and versatility has made him my binkie for the last six weeks or so. Had been thinking a move up from 46 into the late first, but given production, measurables, and scheme fit, I can see the argument for taking him at 15.
 

BigSoxFan

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Per Matt Miller:
Spoke to a scout tonight who said they view Tulsa linebacker Zaven Collins as a top 15 pick.​
Mentioned #Cowboys and #Patriots as landing spots.​

Collins’ combination of size and versatility has made him my binkie for the last six weeks or so. Had been thinking a move up from 46 into the late first, but given production, measurables, and scheme fit, I can see the argument for taking him at 15.
I like what I’ve read about him. 6’4 260 who runs 4.67 sounds intriguing. And having him learn from High, KVN, and Judon would be intriguing. Guys like Parsons and Collins feel like a luxury item but Hightower and KVN are getting up there in age so it would make some sense. And the front 7 versatility would be great, especially when you add Uche/Chase to the mix.
 

Saints Rest

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Has anyone seen/heard any rumors about JCJ? If I understand correctly, he has until 2 days before the draft to sign with another team, in which case the Pats can match or take that team's 2nd round pick or work out a trade.

And if he can't make that happen, then he is faced with signing the tender, working out a long-term deal, or holding out, correct?
 

Ferm Sheller

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Has anyone seen/heard any rumors about JCJ? If I understand correctly, he has until 2 days before the draft to sign with another team, in which case the Pats can match or take that team's 2nd round pick or work out a trade.

And if he can't make that happen, then he is faced with signing the tender, working out a long-term deal, or holding out, correct?
The operative date is April 23rd, not April 27th (i.e., two days before the draft). Otherwise, what you write is how I understand it.
 

Saints Rest

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The operative date is April 23rd, not April 27th (i.e., two days before the draft). Otherwise, what you write is how I understand it.
Good to know. I sort of pulled 2 days out of my memory bank (which is stored in my ass), but I guess I was remembering something about the signing needing to be done two days before something which I guessed was the start of the draft.
 

SMU_Sox

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Something @Super Nomario and I parallel pathed but Jim Nagy said don’t be surprised if Christian Barmore is a 1st round pick, the NFL is higher on him (for his elite traits - my add) than draft media. In particular he said he’s a top 15 pick. We know from Lombardi and Bill’s history that he values dynamic DTs and invests in that position with regularity. Lombardi also recently said the Pats need a 3-tech. Barmore is a 3 tech. Given the Pats could take a DT or an edge and give them time to develop this year and Barmore needs time to develop I would understand why they’d be interested in him. Barmore has rare pass-rush ability and athleticism at 6’4, 310, and 34.63" arms. Here is his athletic profile.

1617937643457.png

8.22 RAS.

[media]
View: https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1379889855711285248?s=20

[/media]

Alabama DT Christian Barmore has been invited by the NFL to the draft in Cleveland. Another player the league is higher on than the media. Some teams we’ve spoken to feel Barmore has top 15 talent. AND it’s a scary thin IDL class.
 

Phil Plantier

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We know from Lombardi and Bill’s history that he values dynamic DTs and invests in that position with regularity. Lombardi also recently said the Pats need a 3-tech. Barmore is a 3 tech. Given the Pats could take a DT or an edge and give them time to develop this year and Barmore needs time to develop I would understand why they’d be interested in him. Barmore has rare pass-rush ability and athleticism at 6’4, 310, and 34.63" arms. Here is his athletic profile.
Wouldn't they be deterred by his below-average agility scores? Or are those not as important for linemen?

What other teams would they be competing against? Couldn't they trade down to the mid-20s and still be reasonably assured they'd get Barmore?
 

SMU_Sox

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The agilities are odd because they don’t match the tape. He has some of the best bend and flexibility for a big guy you’ll see. He didn't do the explosion drills and then had an average 10 yard time too. He already played 3-4 DT for Saban. He would fit into the scheme. He is productive on twists/stunts. If Barmore went back to school, and continued his streak of getting better as well as improving against the run he would be the kind of DT who goes top 10. But if he went back to school and stalled out like Raekwon Davis he would fall down boards. Barmore is taking a homerun swing at the position but he is a big risk and that is why he would be available around 15. I could see Dallas or Minnesota liking him a lot too.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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The agilities are odd because they don’t match the tape. He has some of the best bend and flexibility for a big guy you’ll see. He didn't do the explosion drills and then had an average 10 yard time too. He already played 3-4 DT for Saban. He would fit into the scheme. He is productive on twists/stunts. If Barmore went back to school, and continued his streak of getting better as well as improving against the run he would be the kind of DT who goes top 10. But if he went back to school and stalled out like Raekwon Davis he would fall down boards. Barmore is taking a homerun swing at the position but he is a big risk and that is why he would be available around 15. I could see Dallas or Minnesota liking him a lot too.
Would Chris Jones be a fair ceiling comp for Barmore?
 

SMU_Sox

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Would Chris Jones be a fair ceiling comp for Barmore?
I saw that comparison made from HT @EL Jeffe I believe you had this observation. Don’t want to steal your thunder here but I think that’s fair in terms of high end versatile pass rushing DT yes. Barmore would be a home run swing at a Chris Jones kind of a player. That’s the rosy end of the spectrum of outcomes sure. And not many people have the ability to even has that as a potential outcome so that says something.
 

EL Jeffe

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I saw that comparison made from HT @EL Jeffe I believe you had this observation. Don’t want to steal your thunder here but I think that’s fair in terms of high end versatile pass rushing DT yes. Barmore would be a home run swing at a Chris Jones kind of a player. That’s the rosy end of the spectrum of outcomes sure. And not many people have the ability to even has that as a potential outcome so that says something.
Yeah, I've made the Barmore/Jones comp before. With Barmore, you're drafting him for what you think he'll turn into in a year ot two, not what he is now. While thats true of all prospects, it's especially true of a RS Sophomore. Barmore, like Jones, has shown flashes of dominant play. Whether he puts it all together remains to be seen. Barmore is a little shorter than Jones, but he carries a strong physical profile and his best football should be ahead of him.
 

lexrageorge

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Just saw that, at least gives a little more clarity heading into the draft. They can still trade him though, right?
Yes, if they wanted to. He would be UFA next season unless he signs an extension, and the Pats are not going to trade him for anything less than a 2nd round pick, so it seems unlikely he would be traded.
 

tims4wins

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Except there would be little reason to do that. As an asset, he is still far more valuable than a 3rd round pick.
If he leaves as a free agent they will get a pick in 2023. At best a 3rd round comp pick. So a pick in the 70s-90s in 2021 > any comp pick in 2023.

Let’s not forget the Pats traded Collins for a 3rd round como pick back in the day.
 

JM3

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If he leaves as a free agent they will get a pick in 2023. At best a 3rd round comp pick. So a pick in the 70s-90s in 2021 > any comp pick in 2023.

Let’s not forget the Pats traded Collins for a 3rd round como pick back in the day.
Well, the equation is more accurately:

1 year of JCJ + potential comp pick + potential of making it a long-term relationship compared to the trade value acquired.
 

tims4wins

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Well, the equation is more accurately:

1 year of JCJ + potential comp pick + potential of making it a long-term relationship compared to the trade value acquired.
Right. I’m not advocating trading him. Just saying that there is an argument to be made that even a 3rd round pick in 2021 is potentially better than keeping him for a year and getting a pick at 97 or worse in 2023. My preferred outcome is to keep both him and Gilmore longer term but it doesn’t seem likely.