Pats QB Options

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
12,472
UWS, NYC
Updated the original post as the market continues to unfold...

Right now I see nine teams that seem like plausible contenders to draft a first round QB:
1-1: Jacksonville
1-2: Jets (though riding Darnold is not an unreasonable alternative)
1-4: Falcons (though waiting a year to get a Ryan replacement is at least as likely)
1-8: Panthers (everyone seems to think they've already moved past Bridgewater)
1-9: Broncos
1-14: 49ers (keeping Jimmy G. another year also not implausible)
1-15: Patriots
1-28: Saints
3-67: Texans

Seems reasonable to assume that Watson and Jimmy G. fill two of the nine spots, either on their current team or somewhere else, leaving seven empty chairs. Three more assumptions:

1. Lawrence to Jacksonville is a done deal
2. I wouldn't expect the Falcons would draft a top-tier QB to sit behind Ryan for a year, though that's certainly been speculated.
3. Current draft wisdom (yeah, I know) suggests the Saints will be content to lay back for Mac Jones.

That would leave 4 teams in the hunt for three elite QB prospects: Jets, Panthers, Broncos and Pats assuming Jimmy G. and Watson stay put. That wouldn't be too daunting, but the Pats currently sit last among those four.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
20,227
Updated the original post as the market continues to unfold...

Right now I see nine teams that seem like plausible contenders to draft a first round QB:
1-1: Jacksonville
1-2: Jets (though riding Darnold is not an unreasonable alternative)
1-4: Falcons (though waiting a year to get a Ryan replacement is at least as likely)
1-8: Panthers (everyone seems to think they've already moved past Bridgewater)
1-9: Broncos
1-14: 49ers (keeping Jimmy G. another year also not implausible)
1-15: Patriots
1-28: Saints
3-67: Texans

Seems reasonable to assume that Watson and Jimmy G. fill two of the nine spots, either on their current team or somewhere else, leaving seven empty chairs. Three more assumptions:

1. Lawrence to Jacksonville is a done deal
2. I wouldn't expect the Falcons would draft a top-tier QB to sit behind Ryan for a year, though that's certainly been speculated.
3. Current draft wisdom (yeah, I know) suggests the Saints will be content to lay back for Mac Jones.

That would leave 4 teams in the hunt for three elite QB prospects: Jets, Panthers, Broncos and Pats assuming Jimmy G. and Watson stay put. That wouldn't be too daunting, but the Pats currently sit last among those four.
I think you're missing at least 2, maybe 3 teams there:
WFT and CHI at 19/20 seem like they are at least considering a QB.
Longer shot is NYG at 11, who probably stick with Jones, but may reconsider if someone starts sliding.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
11,803
Santa Monica, CA
Updated the original post as the market continues to unfold...

Right now I see nine teams that seem like plausible contenders to draft a first round QB:
1-1: Jacksonville
1-2: Jets (though riding Darnold is not an unreasonable alternative)
1-4: Falcons (though waiting a year to get a Ryan replacement is at least as likely)
1-8: Panthers (everyone seems to think they've already moved past Bridgewater)
1-9: Broncos
1-14: 49ers (keeping Jimmy G. another year also not implausible)
1-15: Patriots
1-28: Saints
3-67: Texans

Seems reasonable to assume that Watson and Jimmy G. fill two of the nine spots, either on their current team or somewhere else, leaving seven empty chairs. Three more assumptions:

1. Lawrence to Jacksonville is a done deal
2. I wouldn't expect the Falcons would draft a top-tier QB to sit behind Ryan for a year, though that's certainly been speculated.
3. Current draft wisdom (yeah, I know) suggests the Saints will be content to lay back for Mac Jones.

That would leave 4 teams in the hunt for three elite QB prospects: Jets, Panthers, Broncos and Pats assuming Jimmy G. and Watson stay put. That wouldn't be too daunting, but the Pats currently sit last among those four.
I'm assuming the Jets are close to 100% locks to take a QB at #2. So 3 teams are in the hunt for two "elite" prospects (if we really believe there are 4 elite QB prospects in this draft and the consensus is right about who they are). And the Broncos and Panthers are two of those teams and holding significantly higher picks than the Pats.

Summary: It's not very likely that the Patriots are getting any of the consensus top 4 QB prospects. And if they do, they're going to have to overpay to get there.
 

Mugsy's Jock

Eli apologist
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 28, 2000
12,472
UWS, NYC
I think you're missing at least 2, maybe 3 teams there:
WFT and CHI at 19/20 seem like they are at least considering a QB.
Longer shot is NYG at 11, who probably stick with Jones, but may reconsider if someone starts sliding.
You're right, WFT and CHI are in the larger consideration set.

Might be tough for the Bears to add another QB given the significant resources they've already got at the position, but I'm sure the fanbase isn't stoked about Foles and Trubisky. And WFT is 100% in the mix, although resigning Heinecke gives them room not to be desperate. [At least as far as talking to the media is concerned.]

EDIT: following on @Captaincoop 's point about the Pats having to overpay, the mock draft simulators are currently accepting the Pats 2021 #1, 2021 #2 (which might also be Gilmore), and 2022 #2 to get into the top 6. Regardless of what any charts suggest, I think that's wildly optimistic.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
11,918
Let's say that Cam's 2021 cap hit would be $3 million. Mariota's is $11 million.

Is Cam + 2021 5th round pick + whatever player(s) $8 million can buy...better than, worse than, or equal to, Marcus Mariota?
 

Pandemonium67

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
4,899
Lesterland
Part of that consideration is that Cam now knows the O and his teammates, whereas Mariota would be starting fresh.

*This is not advocating that the Pats re-sign Cam, it's just to add other considerations to the decision.*
 

Jimbodandy

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
4,803
around the way
Why are we talking about Mariota again?

I think that the only thing worse than having Mariota as our QB is spending a pick to get him.
 

chief1

lurker
Aug 10, 2012
108
Its more than that especially with incentives. The Patriots could be paying him over 20 million with his incentives and essentially go 7-9 or 6-10 with him. He's an easy pass.
all the incentive money would go on next years cap. i would trade a 5th in a heartbeat.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
20,227
Let's say that Cam's 2021 cap hit would be $3 million. Mariota's is $11 million.

Is Cam + 2021 5th round pick + whatever player(s) $8 million can buy...better than, worse than, or equal to, Marcus Mariota?
I would have to think hard about Cam vs. Mariota straight up, add in the price difference and the pick and it isn't close, I'd much rather the Cam side of that deal. Mariota hasn't shown even the slightest inkling of being a good QB since 2016, he's basically a smaller Cam, with all the same flaws and no clear areas where he's better.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
13,215
Mansfield MA
Its more than that especially with incentives. The Patriots could be paying him over 20 million with his incentives and essentially go 7-9 or 6-10 with him. He's an easy pass.
He's got no guaranteed money though. So you can bring him to camp for a fifth and if he sucks or you find a better option, you can kick him to the curb and only be out the fifth.

There's also the potential that if Mariota has a decent year and leaves, you recoup a better draft pick than you gave up.

all the incentive money would go on next years cap. i would trade a 5th in a heartbeat.
I don't really understand this line of thinking. If it goes on the 2022 cap and we're eating $9 MM in dead on a no-longer-there Mariota, that's not great. And it's not like the Revis deal where we were flush against the cap; we have plenty of space. Paying $20 MM for one year of Mariota has the same long-term effect, whether you split the charge over one year or two.
 

bsj

Renegade Crazed Genius
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2003
20,469
Central NJ SoSH Chapter
Part of that consideration is that Cam now knows the O and his teammates, whereas Mariota would be starting fresh.

*This is not advocating that the Pats re-sign Cam, it's just to add other considerations to the decision.*
He may know the O, but do the WRs now know how far short of where they should be running to break off the route so they have a chance at Cam's worm-burners? What if he air mails that one? Can we stagger 3 routes 5 yards a part so he can aim for the middle guy?

Cam is cooked. If we are aiming for mediocrity he is the guy. I'd rather either aim high or low. 11 wins...awesome. 5 wins....gross, but at least a good draft pick. 8 grinding wins behind an ugly offense with a cooked QB? No thanks.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
20,227
He may know the O, but do the WRs now know how far short of where they should be running to break off the route so they have a chance at Cam's worm-burners? What if he air mails that one? Can we stagger 3 routes 5 yards a part so he can aim for the middle guy?

Cam is cooked. If we are aiming for mediocrity he is the guy. I'd rather either aim high or low. 11 wins...awesome. 5 wins....gross, but at least a good draft pick. 8 grinding wins behind an ugly offense with a cooked QB? No thanks.
So the solution is..... bring in a cooked QB who was never good and pay 3 times as much and a pick for the pleasure?

Cam was both inconsistent and bad last year, but it was a terrible situation: no real pre-season, terrible WR group, he got COVID, etc. etc.
And even with all the problems last year he was pretty similar to what Mariota was fully healthy in TEN his last few years.

Not wanting Cam to be the QB is a very valid stance. Wanting to trade a pick and spend way more money to bring in a player who is arguably worse is not a particularly reasonable stance.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
43,605
All this QB talk is fascinating. I mean, most teams have had to go through this every few seasons? Just crazy!
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
9,576
All the talk out of NO is that Winston is a very high IQ QB with great leadership skills. Could just be fluff but he is probably the best available FA QB and I think a good amount of the INTs can be blamed on the system. He is also young enough that if it works out he could be the QB of the future or certainly a good bridge to a QB to draft and develop. NO is way over the cap. I'd take a flier on Winston, perhaps a 1yr deal with an option or even 2yr deal, well before I'd consider Mariotta. There is little downside, if he is awful the Pats are drafting very high in 2022, if he is great they are a playoff contender and might have a QB for the next 5yrs.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
13,215
Mansfield MA
All the talk out of NO is that Winston is a very high IQ QB with great leadership skills. Could just be fluff but he is probably the best available FA QB and I think a good amount of the INTs can be blamed on the system. He is also young enough that if it works out he could be the QB of the future or certainly a good bridge to a QB to draft and develop. NO is way over the cap. I'd take a flier on Winston, perhaps a 1yr deal with an option or even 2yr deal, well before I'd consider Mariotta. There is little downside, if he is awful the Pats are drafting very high in 2022, if he is great they are a playoff contender and might have a QB for the next 5yrs.
I would be interested if Winston weren't probably a rapist.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
48,050
deep inside Guido territory
All the talk out of NO is that Winston is a very high IQ QB with great leadership skills. Could just be fluff but he is probably the best available FA QB and I think a good amount of the INTs can be blamed on the system. He is also young enough that if it works out he could be the QB of the future or certainly a good bridge to a QB to draft and develop. NO is way over the cap. I'd take a flier on Winston, perhaps a 1yr deal with an option or even 2yr deal, well before I'd consider Mariotta. There is little downside, if he is awful the Pats are drafting very high in 2022, if he is great they are a playoff contender and might have a QB for the next 5yrs.
Winston isn't leaving New Orleans. He was signed with 2021 in mind as Brees' replacement. 2020 was basically a year to learn from Brees and to get used to the Saints' system. From all reports, Sean Payton likes him and Winston likes NO.
 

splendid splinter

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
1,004
Greenville, SC
All the talk out of NO is that Winston is a very high IQ QB with great leadership skills. Could just be fluff but he is probably the best available FA QB and I think a good amount of the INTs can be blamed on the system. He is also young enough that if it works out he could be the QB of the future or certainly a good bridge to a QB to draft and develop. NO is way over the cap. I'd take a flier on Winston, perhaps a 1yr deal with an option or even 2yr deal, well before I'd consider Mariotta. There is little downside, if he is awful the Pats are drafting very high in 2022, if he is great they are a playoff contender and might have a QB for the next 5yrs.
I’ve wondered since it was reported that Winston had LASIK in Feb 2020 - how much of his INT issue can be attributed to not seeing well? Were some of them just him not clearly seeing how much separation his receiver did or didn’t have, or not being able to put the ball where it needed to go because things were a bit fuzzy, etc? Obviously not all of his bad throws can be blamed on that, but there must be some subset.
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
9,576
Winston isn't leaving New Orleans. He was signed with 2021 in mind as Brees' replacement. 2020 was basically a year to learn from Brees and to get used to the Saints' system. From all reports, Sean Payton likes him and Winston likes NO.
Depends if Winston wants to make $$ next year. Perhaps his 10M this year was a pre-payment but no team is currently in worse cap shape than NO and I believe that is even with Drew Brees cap shenanigans that the NFL should probably look into.
 

EL Jeffe

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 30, 2006
964
Trubisky and Mariota are very comparable in a lot of ways, for better (or mostly) worse. I believe Trubsky would count against the 2022 comp pick formula, vs. Mariota requiring 2021 (presumably) draft pick compensation. I might give Trubisky the edge in that he doesn't have a weird ulnar nerve injury in his recent history.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
6,901
Dallas
I completely get why @Super Nomario is the adult in the room with staying disciplined and not trading up for a QB and giving up a 2022 1st given the team situation. I think he’s right that it’s the move they make. And it’s probably the correct move analytically (HT The Drafting Stage). But the corpse of Cam Newton followed by Trubs or Mariota seems like staying on budget by driving a car with two flat tires or two spare tires.

The thing that kills me is if they had just taken AJ Brown, had Justin Jefferson fallen to them, had they taken Chubb over Sony, just some better draft luck the past few years they could have taken that gamble in a historically good QB class. Now they can’t afford to spend the draft capital they ideally would on the most important position in the game and most likely are in a 2 years turnaround process. The only good news is it looks like the 2020 class has some ballers on it so if they get this 2021 class right they could trade up for a QB to put him in a better situation in 2022. Hope for Howell?
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
26,735
Hingham, MA

Jimbodandy

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
4,803
around the way
Mariota, Trubisky, and Winston.

It's 2AM at the bar, you just did your fifth shot of Jager, and everyone looks good.

Whoever costs the least in draft picks and salary cap, I suppose. Lots of holes to fill, especially quarterback, especially after picking up one of those guys.
 

djbayko

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
15,099
Waltham, MA
Mariota, Trubisky, and Winston.

It's 2AM at the bar, you just did your fifth shot of Jager, and everyone looks good.

Whoever costs the least in draft picks and salary cap, I suppose. Lots of holes to fill, especially quarterback, especially after picking up one of those guys.
The bartender must not have turned the “GTFO” lights on yet.
 

67YAZ

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2000
3,186
Trubisky stinks. And he is still a huge upgrade from Newton. So there's that.
Mitch is probably looking at being a backup or, in practical terms, a one-year short-money prove-it deal as a starter with a QB-desperate team. That includes going back to Chicago, where he seems to have a positive relationship with the coaching staff and he knows the system. Not sure how Trubisky feels about going back to the Bears, but I suspect he's the emergency plan B for Nagy & Pace, who really need to make the playoffs next season to keep their jobs.

Whether or not Trubisky can be salvaged is a tricky question. Is Nagy a good offensive game planner and QB developer? Or is his reputation a product of Andy Reid's brilliance? How you answer those questions goes a long way towards how you assess bringing in Trubisky.

Mitch has all the physical tools and enough mobility to make an RPO system work well. But his short accuracy is good, and intermediate accuracy is streaky to poor, and his downfield accuracy is abysmal. If Belichick and McDaniels think this is correctable, then maybe the gamble is worth it because the talent is there. Otherwise, Trubisky is going to face a lot of zone defenses smothering the short/intermediate spaces and daring him to go over the top.

 
Last edited:

BusRaker

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 11, 2006
945
NESN piece from yesterday which paints a pretty bleak picture of Stiddy's standing amongst his teammates:
https://nesn.com/2021/02/patriots-players-reportedly-didnt-trust-jarrett-stidham-feared-debacle/
A Nathan Peterman debacle?

I never remember a quarterback consensus #1 overall as hyped as Andrew Luck so I'm thinking about which boxcar I would place Trevor on the hype train. Since Bledsoe (my age) I think I'd place him sixth. Of course for years like 2018 when their wasn't really a top dog it really slides.

2012 Andrew Luck
1998 Peyton Manning
2001 Michael Vick
2015 Jameis Winston
2004 Eli Manning
2021? Trevor Lawrence
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
A Nathan Peterman debacle?

I never remember a quarterback consensus #1 overall as hyped as Andrew Luck so I'm thinking about which boxcar I would place Trevor on the hype train. Since Bledsoe (my age) I think I'd place him sixth. Of course for years like 2018 when their wasn't really a top dog it really slides.

2012 Andrew Luck
1998 Peyton Manning
2001 Michael Vick
2015 Jameis Winston
2004 Eli Manning
2021? Trevor Lawrence
Good list! I'm hardly the draft expert around here, but as I remember it Luck and Peyton were sort of in a class by themselves. As for the list itself, I would probably move Winston down and put Joe Burrow on par with Lawrence. The fact that in the National Championship Game Burrow threw for 460 yards and 5 TDs (and ran in another one) after his insane season felt like one of the largest pre-draft statements I can remember (especially compared to Lawrence getting blown out by OSU).
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
6,901
Dallas
A Nathan Peterman debacle?

I never remember a quarterback consensus #1 overall as hyped as Andrew Luck so I'm thinking about which boxcar I would place Trevor on the hype train. Since Bledsoe (my age) I think I'd place him sixth. Of course for years like 2018 when their wasn't really a top dog it really slides.

2012 Andrew Luck
1998 Peyton Manning
2001 Michael Vick
2015 Jameis Winston
2004 Eli Manning
2021? Trevor Lawrence
I would put Lawrence at 2, behind Luck. There were a fair number of Mariota > Winston people, Leaf > Manning. Lawrence is the best QB prospect since Luck in the last decade, probably 2. He is also the consensus #1 in a v good QB year.
 

Steve Dillard

wishes drew noticed him instead of sweet & sour
SoSH Member
Oct 7, 2003
5,173
Just playing off the list of top 15 draft teams and qb needs, and how 5 will pick one ahead of us.
Right now I see nine teams that seem like plausible contenders to draft a first round QB:
1-1: Jacksonville
1-2: Jets (though riding Darnold is not an unreasonable alternative)
1-4: Falcons (though waiting a year to get a Ryan replacement is at least as likely)
1-8: Panthers (everyone seems to think they've already moved past Bridgewater)
1-9: Broncos
1-14: 49ers (keeping Jimmy G. another year also not implausible)
1-15: Patriots
1-28: Saints
3-67: Texans
Assuming we are in the top 15 again next year, how many of the teams ahead of us will be ready to move on for a new qb, what’s the demand going to be. Will this years new 5 qbs still not be enough to lift them past us (like, we know the jets will still finish last)? And will teams losing qbs dip below us, like New Orleans? If so, it may be more of a buyers market next year.
 
Last edited:

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
26,735
Hingham, MA
I know there was a Manning v Leaf debate but I still think Manning has to top that list

1) Manning
2) Luck
3) Lawrence
4) Vick
5) Eli
6) Winston

And honorable mention to Mariota, he was hyped a TON in college

Edit: I can't include someone like Burrow because he wasn't hyped prior to his breakout. Most of the above list was hyped from Day 1 of college.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
12,222
Good list! I'm hardly the draft expert around here, but as I remember it Luck and Peyton were sort of in a class by themselves. As for the list itself, I would probably move Winston down and put Joe Burrow on par with Lawrence. The fact that in the National Championship Game Burrow threw for 460 yards and 5 TDs (and ran in another one) after his insane season felt like one of the largest pre-draft statements I can remember (especially compared to Lawrence getting blown out by OSU).
Burrow should be on the list but based on the hype I heard I am quite sure Lawrence would have been picked ahead of him last year
 

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
6,716
Maine
I wondered If Trubisky had any weapons and how they might have related to the "Short Excellent, everything else sucky" performance he has going on.

Robinson is a weapon with a 12.3y/r average. So its not like he was throwing the Pats WRs (LOL....sigh) Mooney also seems like a decent deep target.
Montgomery and Graham probably contributed to his short throw excellence.

Basically while I would like to wishcast that in the right situation Trubisky could be effective I think our eyes are right....hes just not good.
 

AlNipper49

Huge Member
Dope
Apr 3, 2001
41,038
Mtigawi
I think that Belichick is going for Mac Jones. He’s an Alabama guy, is accurate and doesn’t make mistakes. He’s not flashy whatsoever, but neither was Brady.
Plus, going from Alabama is about as NFL as an experience as you can get without actually playing in the NFL.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
6,901
Dallas
Kyed presents the case for a possibility that he readily admits doesn't have a ghost of a chance of happening

https://nesn.com/2021/02/sam-darnold-jets-patriots-trade-ryan-tannehill-marcus-mariota-qb-rumors/
Kyed seeing Ghosts with Darnold really makes this full circle. Nice work there.

I am pretty gloom and doom on their options. No one imo worth taking at 15. Too many teams ahead of them to trade up. Mariota might be the guy for a 5th but why would LV cut him? Jimmy G isn't worth a pick and can't stay healthy. Trubs doesn't have it between the ears and couldn't process his way out of a parking lot without banging into cars right in front of him.
 

Attachments

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
43,605
I think that Belichick is going for Mac Jones. He’s an Alabama guy, is accurate and doesn’t make mistakes. He’s not flashy whatsoever, but neither was Brady.
Plus, going from Alabama is about as NFL as an experience as you can get without actually playing in the NFL.
Definite step down in offensive weapons.