Mariota's contract is not a lot cheaper (it's $10 MM but balloons to about double that if he's the full-time starter), but more significantly, it's only for one year. That means even if the reclamation project works, then you're in a position of having to pay market after that. OTOH, Wentz has a lot more guaranteed money (his whole 2021 salary), but he's got three more years at ~25MMish, which is a pretty good contract if he can reclaim, say, his 2018 form.
Darnold is probably available depending on what they do in the draft/trade market. Minshew is very available.
Thanks for taking the time to put this list together.
In order for that to happen, then SF would have another QB lined up; have you read anything to that effect, ie, someone they have their eye on?
A couple minor guys you're missing (like, Joe Flacco), but no one worth writing home about. As a strategy, I think the other option is a big trade up for Lance or Fields (or less likely, Wilson). I don't view it as a likely option, but it's a reasonable one.
The trade up to get Lance or Fields would be perhaps similar to the package required to get Russell Wilson, right? If you're gonna make that kind of splash move, trade for the sure thing, though of course, now you're adding in the much bigger hit to the payroll. But at least we know that Wilson is an all-pro level guy. Lance or Fields may never amount to anything.
Wilson would cost far more. You're not trading multiple first-round picks, plus other sweeteners to get from 15 to, say, 8
Historically I believe this kind of move up (to the 8-12 range, not top five) takes 2021 and 2022 firsts and a 2021 third.
Maybe I misunderstood your post; I thought you were cataloguing the various options. This is one of the options.
Right ... but a team would have to dangle more than that to get Wilson, which was my original thought on this
Probably depends where the first rounder is but agreed that 2 firsts plus another pick is probably the starting point for Wilson
I wasn't disagreeing with you. I was just saying that if the cost for Wilson is similar to the cost to move up in the first round, I'd prefer they go ahead and make a deal for Wilson. Though you're right...he might not even be available.
“Might” not? I’d say almost certainly not - he made one vague comment about how he’d like to have a little bit more input into personnel decisions.
I think there's a good chance they would fill that gap with a trade (like say Gilmore to SF for 43 )
Yeah me either. He's a tough eval because his success will come with a projection more than other guys that 1) they can fix his mechanics and accuracy and 2) he grows with anticipation-throws (though this is not as big of a requirement). I definitely like Fields and Wilson more out of the chute.
Gotcha, didn't know if the implication there
Just looking at the mocks I have a feeling that there might be an opportunity to trade down while still getting Jones if that's who they want. Looks like Mac will be the fifth taken and it's been fairly rare for even 4 taken in the first round although 5 did happen in 2018.
I honestly don't think there is a team that would take him before 46, but I could be wrong. He has intense "Jake Fromm" vibes, though he came out after his 1 year on a loaded team, where Fromm went back. Still, if I had to bet on a potential 1st rounder who slid to the 3rd it would be Jones.
Well yeah, I don't think you plan to take a player in any spot. You just stick a value on him, stick a value on the other players and decide based on that.
I was thinking Mahomes at 1-10 (two first and a third) and Josh Allen at 1-6 (a first and two seconds) as the corollaries. Of course the the picks aren’t all in the exact same spots, so there’s some triangulation/guesswork in there.
2016 wasn't good? You could argue that's too long ago to matter, but it wasn't straight garbage.
2016 is a long time ago, but okay, I slightly exaggerated. He was bad most of his career, but had one pretty good year 5 seasons ago. I don't get the appeal of trading for a guy who hasn't shown anything in years and the knock on whom is he can't handle processing or a complex offense.
A lot of mocks have the Pats taking Trask in the 2nd (a lot also have them taking Jones there -- I find it interesting how many mocks have Jones ending up a Patriot, with some showing him going there at 15 and others at 43).
I do think it's reasonable to have Mac Jones mocked to the Pats. There is clearly a need and he's likely to be available to the Pats. We obviously have absolutely no idea about the Pats' evaluation of Jones but I don't think he's the guy. There will be too much talent available at #15 to take Mac, IMO. Now, if he's there in the late 1st or early 2nd, I could see a trade up from #46.
Probably even Lawrence--not sure a generational QB prospect has busted but an awful lot of QBs drafted first or second have been busts. (Ryan Leaf was ahead of Peyton in some observer's eyes, Jmarcus Russell and his 70 yard pass from his knees--or was that Kyle Boller? another busto, Akili Smith, Art Schlichter wasn't worth gambling on at 4, Joey Harrington, etc.
