Pats Depth Chart: an Early Look

bsj · Mar 16, 2021

My hope is that it is

2021 -- (3) Newton, QB of the Future drafted in Rd 1 this year, Hoyer

BigSoxFan · Mar 16, 2021

Major nitpick, you have “Harris” at WR instead of “Harry”

But otherwise good write up. Definitely feels like a major move is coming at DB.

Ferm Sheller · Mar 16, 2021

Saints Rest said:
Corrected. Harry, Harris, Henry. For some reason those names always get muddled up in my head. I could never keep Rivers and Wise straight for the longest time, but different reason there (same draft, same position).

And then of course you have Henry Anderson who everyone keeps mixing up with Harry Anderson.

FelixMantilla · Mar 16, 2021

View: https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1372011695271522310

nighthob · Mar 16, 2021

Ferm Sheller said:
And then of course you have Henry Anderson who everyone keeps mixing up with Harry Anderson.

Which is unfortunate because Henry Anderson was such a great comic actor.

BigSoxFan · Mar 16, 2021

Saints Rest said:
Didn’t we see this with Hightower and others. Basically they talk to other teams and then bring the offer back to the Pats to match?

Yup. High, McCourty, I think Edelman, etc. Belichick will let the market dictate this and Andrews owes it to himself to check it out.

Ferm Sheller · Mar 16, 2021

nighthob said:
Which is unfortunate because Henry Anderson was such a great comic actor.

And Andy Hendrickson is a great active comedian: https://www.imdb.com/name/nm2900336/

nighthob · Mar 17, 2021

Ferm Sheller said:
And Andy Hendrickson is a great active comedian

New England refused to offer more than the vet min so he signed with the Jets instead.

MuppetAsteriskTalk · Mar 17, 2021

2021 -- Hightower, Judon, Bentley, Hall, Uche, Jennings

Crazy with KVN added to this group. How many do they normally carry, and who is likely to see the door?

EddieYost · Mar 17, 2021

MuppetAsteriskTalk said:
2021 -- Hightower, Judon, Bentley, Hall, Uche, Jennings

Crazy with KVN added to this group. How many do they normally carry, and who is likely to see the door?

I hope Bentley. He just seems so slow.

streeter88 · Mar 19, 2021

On paper this looks like a really good team. @Saints Rest or others, do you have a feel for strength of each position relative to the rest of the league?

Oh and minor nit - Folk's name is misspelled...

DourDoerr · Mar 19, 2021

Looking at the depth chart, the absolutely insane thing is that they'll be adding at least one stud and possibly more through the draft. The skill level and depth at each position (except for, gulp, QB) is incredible. This team will have swagger.

BaseballJones · Mar 19, 2021

Saints Rest said:
With all the moves over the last 10 days, I thought it would be interesting (to me, at least) to look at the Pats depth chart, position by position. I'll keep it updated as more changes happen.

2020 listing refers to the end of the season. 2021 ranking, where noted, is my opinion.

I've moved all the guys who seem to be ST-only guys (e.g. Slater, Bethel, Davis) to their own category along with the usual ST specialists.

QB:
2020 -- (3) Newton, Stidham, Hoyer
2021 -- (2) Newton, Stidham.
Comments/Needs: I expect we will see at least one more, and likely two more added before training camp, a vet and a rookie to compete with Newton (to start) and with Stidham (to backup). I could see the final 53 with either 2 QBs or 3.

RB:
2020 -- Harris, White, Michel, Taylor, Johnson, Burkhead (IR)
2021 -- Harris, Michel, Taylor, Johnson, Bolden, Vitale
Comments/Needs: They likely need to bring in someone toat least compete to fill the 3rd-down, pass-catching role. I doubt that's White (I think he goes to TB). I wouldn't be surprised to see Burkhead re-signed to a vet min deal, with playing time incentives, and a likely PUP designation. Vitale and Johnson will likely copter for one FB spot. I wouldn't be sad if nothing else changes here from the group listed.
EDIT (3/18): Apparently Johnson was an exclusive rights FA, but they re-signed him anyway. No change to the chart, just a bit of bookkeeping.

WR:
2020 -- Byrd, Meyers, Harry, Olszewski, Moncrief, Eddelman (IR)
2021 -- Agholor, Bourne, Meyers, Edelman, Harry, ~~Lee~~, Olszewski (plus a bunch of PS/futures types)
Comments/Needs: Does Edelman or Harris get traded? Still room to upgrade, but clearly better than last year. I wonder if Byrd gets a deal similar to last year's. I'm tempted to move Gunner to the ST grouping, as he might be a WRINO, like Slater.
EDIT (3/18): Lee has been "terminated" (sounds worse than released, hmmm?).

TE:
2020 -- Asiasi, Keene, Izzo (IR)
2021 -- Henry, Smith, Asiasi, Keene, ~~Izzo~~, LaCosse
Comments/Needs: At least two of the latter 4 are gone next year, and possibly three, if the Pats bring in another vet or rookie. I'd still like to see them bring in a Dwayne Allen-type road-grader. But assuming one or both of Asiasi/Keene can make the proverbial 2nd-year jump, then this position is notably improved.
EDIT (3/16) to add Henry. I'll leave my previous comments, as they seem fairly prescient. I imagine BB was confirming the deal with Henry while I was typing.
EDIT (3/18): Reflecting trade of Izzo to HOU.

OL:
2020 -- Eluemenor, Thuney, Andrews, Mason, Onwenu, Herron, Ferentz, Cunningham, Martin (who?!!), Wynn (IR), Cajuste (IR)
2021 -- Wynn, Onwenu, Mason, Brown, Herron, Cunningham, Cajuste, Karras, Andrews
Comments/Needs: Losing Thuney hurts and obviously a gaping hole at center, both starter and backup. Re-sign Andrews and all will be good here as I feel confident they can find some 3rd day draft picks to fill in the backup IOL. But until starting center is solved, this line is incomplete.
EDIT (3/17): Added Karras. Looking like Andrews won't be back.
EDIT (3/18): So happy to cross out my edit above to note that Andrews is back!

DL:
2020 -- Winovich, Guy, Cowart, Simon, Wise, Butler, Bower, Spence, Davis (IR), Allen (IR)
2021 -- Wino, Godchaux, Anderson, Wise, Davis, ~~Allen,~~ Adams
Comments/Needs: Butler and Guy remain unsigned free agents. I imagine one, but not both, get re-signed. I would expect we will see some Day 2 and/or Day 3 draft capital used here.
EDIT (3/18): Allen failed his physical so he's gone. Added Adams.

LB:
2020 -- Bentley, Hall, Uche, Jennings, Calhoun
2021 -- Hightower, Judon, Bentley, Hall, Uche, Jennings, Van Noy
Comments/Needs: High and Judon make for a HUGE upgrade here, pushing everyone else down a notch. Hall impressed me more than Bentley in the middle last year. I wonder if we might see High moved to OLB with Hall in the middle. I'd feel a lot better about their run D if we have Judon and High manning the two edges.
EDIT: So happy to add KVN back to the mix here. Assuming they run a 4-3, they will have a completely new starting LB corps compared to last year, without losing anyone. So last year's starters are this year's backups.

CB:
2020 -- Jackson, JMac, Jones, Bryant, Williams, Gilmore (IR)
2021 -- Gilmore, Mills, Jones, Bryant, Williams
Comments/Needs: Will JCJ get re-signed? Will Gilmore get extended or traded? Have we seen the last of JMac chasing guys? Will Williams play his way into a rotational spot? Did Bryant show us the next UDFA to starting CB or has he reached his ceiling? I expect we will see a CB drafted here on Day 3.

Safety:
2020 -- DMac, Phillips, Dugger, Brooks
2021 -- DMac, Phillips, Dugger, ~~Chung~~
Comments/Needs: Will DMac get extended? Let's hope a year off has Chung fully healed up, and raring to go. I expect we will see a rookie drafted here on Day 3.
EDIT (3/18): Chung retires. I probably should move one of the CB's, be that Mills or Bryant or Williams over here. But I'll leave it as is for now.

ST:
2020 -- Folk, Bailey, Cardona, Slater, Bethel, Davis
2021 -- Folk, Bailey, Cardona, Slater, Bethel
Comments/Needs: Folk and Davis remain unsigned; I expect Folk (definitely) and Davis (probably) will get re-signed. Otherwise I don't see much happening here, other than Rohrwasser competing in camp.
EDIT (3/17): Davis re-signed (as expected).
EDIT (3/17): Folk re-signed (as expected).

Great work on this, @Saints Rest. It is unbelievable how much better (on paper) this team is than the 2020 version. Not only did they improve at the starting spots at DL, LB, TE, and WR, but they got deeper at those spots plus on the OL and in the secondary. As you pointed out for example, at LB last year's starters are now this year's backups, meaning they're starting caliber players now playing backup. So that means that even better players are playing LB, but they've now got legit NFL starters all throughout the position. I'm astounded by the OL depth now. Karras is not as good as Andrews, but he's absolutely a starting NFL center. Now he's the backup. At WR they went from Byrd and Meyers to Agholor and Bourne, with Meyers in the WR3 slot (which we've all said is a better fit for him...he should torch CB3s) and Edelman now can return and not take the beating he is accustomed to. If he has anything left in the tank, he will destroy CB4s or safeties that now have to match up against him should NE go with a 4 WR set.

And don't get me started on the tight ends. Holy crap what an improvement.

This team is absolutely STACKED with talent. For all the complaining last year about how they lacked talent...holy cow are they loaded. The only questions remaining for me are at RB (who do they bring in because they'll need one more good player there, preferably a guy who can catch) and QB; are they REALLY going to let Cam drive this Ferrari? Maybe. And even if he's last year's Cam, the surrounding talent is SO MUCH BETTER that it almost can't help but make Cam better. And again (I've mentioned this before), they won 7 games with a bad Cam who was dealing with Covid and who had no preseason work available to him, all the opt-outs, and against one of the hardest schedules in the league. This year, Cam will be playing with MUCH better players all around him, the defense should be significantly improved, they'll have time to work together, and they're playing against what is, on paper, an easier schedule.

AND....

They have what is for them a crazy good set of draft picks waiting to be used, either on players or in trades. It's been a long time since they've had a pick as high as #15, and they've got plenty of picks.

Round 1- No. 15 overall
Round 2- No. 46 overall
Round 3 (compensatory pick)- No. 96 overall
Round 4- No. 120 overall
Round 4- No. 122 overall
Round 4 (compensatory pick)- No. 139 overall
Round 6- No. 187 overall
Round 6- No. 196 overall
Round 7- No. 241 overall

Six picks in the first four rounds. #15 overall. Nine picks total. Tons of ammo. It would be crazy if they used them all, because their roster is now so stacked that there's no place to put these guys. BB *has* to be trading a bunch of them. My preference is for them to go all-in and trade up for the QB they want (or use them to trade for a QB on another team), but I don't know if that's the route BB will go. Tons of options for BB. I'm totally giddy.

And the kicker is...(not talking about Nick Folk, though that was a nice little signing too)...the guys they signed are young still. They didn't go out and sign 33-year old guys on their last legs. They signed a bunch of guys just entering, or in the middle of, their primes. Crazy.

KingChre · Mar 19, 2021

You can cross Adam Butler off in your next edit, he signed with Miami.

I expect we'll see Guy return soon. I get the impression that they want him back and he is doing his due diligence not unlike Andrews.

Different situations I'm sure considering Andrews' health history and reported family situation (I've heard his wife may be pregnant), but Guy coming back would not be a surprise.

At this point I'd like to see another WR with some field stretching ability brought in. I would have liked to have seen them take a flier on John Ross, he signed with the Giants for cheap money. They gave Agholor big money because they clearly value his skillset and the role it provides their offense. Unfortunately he is really the only member of their WR corps that has that ability, so I'd like someone to be brought in as a hedge against any potential injuries for Agholor this year.

That might have to come in the draft at this point.

tims4wins · Mar 19, 2021

KingChre said:
You can cross Adam Butler off in your next edit, he signed with Miami.

I expect we'll see Guy return soon. I get the impression that they want him back and he is doing his due diligence not unlike Andrews.

Different situations I'm sure considering Andrews' health history and reported family situation (I've heard his wife may be pregnant), but Guy coming back would not be a surprise.

At this point I'd like to see another WR with some field stretching ability brought in. I would have liked to have seen them take a flier on John Ross, he signed with the Giants for cheap money. They gave Agholor big money because they clearly value his skillset and the role it provides their offense. Unfortunately he is really the only member of their WR corps that has that ability, so I'd like someone to be brought in as a hedge against any potential injuries for Agholor this year.

That might have to come in the draft at this point.

Re: Guy, what do we think it would take to sign him? His last contract was 4 years / $15.3M with $4.9m guaranteed. I am thinking they could probably get him back on a 2 year deal worth $8-10M with relatively low guarantees, maybe $3-4M?

BrazilianSoxFan · Mar 19, 2021

It seems like this is a roster tailor made for helping an inexperienced QB. Solid running game, great TEs, solid short-passing game with a true deep threat to keep defenses honest.

KingChre · Mar 19, 2021

tims4wins said:
Re: Guy, what do we think it would take to sign him? His last contract was 4 years / $15.3M with $4.9m guaranteed. I am thinking they could probably get him back on a 2 year deal worth $8-10M with relatively low guarantees, maybe $3-4M?

I think you've got it pretty close to where I'd peg it. Maybe slightly more but that feels about right to me.

thurin68 · Mar 19, 2021

Despite the incredible offseason it would be an unbelievable let down if they didn’t trade up at this point. The “fully loaded Lamborghini” analogy made up thread is a great one

DJnVa · Mar 19, 2021

thurin68 said:
Despite the incredible offseason it would be an unbelievable let down if they didn’t trade up at this point.

I'd amend that to "seriously attempt" to move up. It takes 2 to tango and others may also be looking to move up.

jsinger121 · Mar 19, 2021

BrazilianSoxFan said:
It seems like this is a roster tailor made for helping an inexperienced QB. Solid running game, great TEs, solid short-passing game with a true deep threat to keep defenses honest.

Especially one on a rookie deal. This is exactly the time to cash in the draft capital for a QB.

RG33 · Mar 19, 2021

thurin68 said:
Despite the incredible offseason it would be an unbelievable let down if they didn’t trade up at this point. The “fully loaded Lamborghini” analogy made up thread is a great one

I disagree. This team is going to be stacked either way. If they don’t find the right deal, I am fine with them loading up on talent (or future draft picks) and going with Cam/Stidham this year and seeing what shakes out next year with trades/FA/Draft.

This offseason has restocked the roster with talent and with exceptional depth. This was the “rebuild”. I’m okay with being smart about getting the final piece and would not be opposed to them grabbing BPA in these top 5 picks which could set this roster up even better the next 5 years.

JM3 · Mar 19, 2021

I think more then anything it depends on the organizational valuation of the available QBs. If they don't love Fields/Lance, then yeah, overpaying for them makes no sense, but if they think 1 of them is the guy, then "overpaying" should 100% be on the table because they aren't likely to have another shot at an elite QB anytime soon.

ekim colorwaterpit · Mar 19, 2021

I agree with JM3. There is a lot of talk about just moving up and taking one of the available QBs, but BB might not have them all as equally grouped together as everyone else does. Maybe he loves Jones for some reason. Maybe he hates all the QBs this year. Personally, I would love Lance or Fields because I think they would fit really well in this offense, but he may really like one or the other but not both.

RG33 · Mar 19, 2021

ekim colorwaterpit said:
I agree with JM3. There is a lot of talk about just moving up and taking one of the available QBs, but BB might not have them all as equally grouped together as everyone else does. Maybe he loves Jones for some reason. Maybe he hates all the QBs this year. Personally, I would love Lance or Fields because I think they would fit really well in this offense, but he may really like one or the other but not both.

I’m all for moving up and even overpaying if they think they have their guy, I just don’t think it will be an “incredible letdown” if that is not the case.

Shelterdog · Mar 19, 2021

JM3 said:
I think more then anything it depends on the organizational valuation of the available QBs. If they don't love Fields/Lance, then yeah, overpaying for them makes no sense, but if they think 1 of them is the guy, then "overpaying" should 100% be on the table because they aren't likely to have another shot at an elite QB anytime soon.

My guy Davis Mills apparently had a great pro day; picking up a guy like him in the second or the third seems infinitely smarter than trading a boatload for Fields or Lance unless you really believe in Fields or Lance.

Maybe it's a foolish strategy but looking at how damn good Mahomes is i wonder if the best strategy is that if I can't get a superstar I'm just going to cycle through running quarterbacks and have a big nasty team--so you take Cam and Monds, don't pay them much and build up on D, the O-line and TE.

BigJimEd · Mar 19, 2021

BrazilianSoxFan said:
It seems like this is a roster tailor made for helping an inexperienced QB. Solid running game, great TEs, solid short-passing game with a true deep threat to keep defenses honest.

I think those things are tailor made for any QB.

This has been Belichick's philosophy all along. Fill as many holes as possible through FA so you aren't reaching during draft. Use draft to fill future holes and build depth.

Not to say they won't move up. I think they do put a good amount value on QB as evidenced by routinely picking guys in 2nd, 3rd or 4th with Brady on board. All depends on their evaluation and the price.

tims4wins · Mar 19, 2021

RG33 said:
I disagree. This team is going to be stacked either way. If they don’t find the right deal, I am fine with them loading up on talent (or future draft picks) and going with Cam/Stidham this year and seeing what shakes out next year with trades/FA/Draft.

This offseason has restocked the roster with talent and with exceptional depth. This was the “rebuild”. I’m okay with being smart about getting the final piece and would not be opposed to them grabbing BPA in these top 5 picks which could set this roster up even better the next 5 years.

Kind of amazing that in a span of a week it feels like the roster is now talented, young and deep, when a week ago it felt untalented, old, and shallow. It's truly remarkable actually.

BaseballJones · Mar 19, 2021

tims4wins said:
Kind of amazing that in a span of a week it feels like the roster is now talented, young and deep, when a week ago it felt untalented, old, and shallow. It's truly remarkable actually.

The most radical transformation of a football team I've ever seen. Honestly. Not just the signings, but the trades and even Hightower returning is huge.

They've taken care of every single hole on the roster. Yes some work around the edges (another RB, for example), but they have tons of draft capital at their disposal too. They can do whatever they want. Draft players in their spots filling needs. Trading for future picks in order to keep the train rolling in future years. Trading picks for final players. Or trading UP to get the QB of the future.

BB has the ultimate flexibility here. Unbelievable work by him.

Bowser · Mar 19, 2021

BigJimEd said:
I think those things are tailor made for any QB.

Including Stidham? I'm a Mac Jones guy, but I'm also not convinced Stidham is as far in the dog house as is conventionally believed. Yes, the roster is stacked, but we could still use a Collins/Horn/Surtain at 15 -- DHT, DMac, and Gilmore can't play forever -- and then draft a project like Monds or Mills on Day 3.

Cellar-Door · Mar 19, 2021

Thing is, a few people (myself included) have been saying all winter that the roster was going to be good outside QB given the returns and the massive cap space. This is a good team with Cam. It could be a really good team if they can find a way to upgrade there without spending too much. I don't think they do... probably draft a rookie who sits most or all of the year, win 9-10 games.

tims4wins · Mar 19, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
Thing is, a few people (myself included) have been saying all winter that the roster was going to be good outside QB given the returns and the massive cap space. This is a good team with Cam. It could be a really good team if they can find a way to upgrade there without spending too much. I don't think they do... probably draft a rookie who sits most or all of the year, win 9-10 games.

Totally agree that there was some optimism, but we heard a lot from certain posters about the cap room not going as far as we think it would, etc. I think those views have been proven very, very wrong.

Cellar-Door · Mar 19, 2021

tims4wins said:
Totally agree that there was some optimism, but we heard a lot from certain posters about the cap room not going as far as we think it would, etc. I think those views have been proven very, very wrong.

Oh yeah, that was actually my point, that a few people saw this, and that the people who thought this team was going to have a bad roster were delusional. It shouldn't be a surprise that if you have a ton of cap space in a tight market you can spread it over a lot of positions. This team was never going to be bad, there was too much talent returning and too much cap space.

DourDoerr · Mar 19, 2021

BaseballJones said:
AND.... They have what is for them a crazy good set of draft picks waiting to be used

Wish I had thought of that!

tims4wins · Mar 19, 2021

Cellar-Door said:
Oh yeah, that was actually my point, that a few people saw this, and that the people who thought this team was going to have a bad roster were delusional. It shouldn't be a surprise that if you have a ton of cap space in a tight market you can spread it over a lot of positions. This team was never going to be bad, there was too much talent returning and too much cap space.

Completely agree, we’re on the same page.

Super Nomario · Mar 19, 2021

BigJimEd said:
I think those things are tailor made for any QB.

This has been Belichick's philosophy all along. Fill as many holes as possible through FA so you aren't reaching during draft. Use draft to fill future holes and build depth.

And to be clear, they have a lot of future holes. Cam, Brown, Wynn, Hightower, Gilmore, Jackson, and McCourty are all free agents after 2021 as things stand. So there aren't a lot of 2021 holes to fill via the draft, but there are a bunch of 2022 holes they could look to target.

Cellar-Door said:
Oh yeah, that was actually my point, that a few people saw this, and that the people who thought this team was going to have a bad roster were delusional. It shouldn't be a surprise that if you have a ton of cap space in a tight market you can spread it over a lot of positions. This team was never going to be bad, there was too much talent returning and too much cap space.

I was definitely one of those people who was too low on how much they'd do this offseason. We'll see how it plays out on the field, but obviously this team looks a lot better than it did a week ago.

Interestingly, they have mostly spent 2022 and 2023 cap space on these deals, not so much 2021 cap space. They have mostly backloaded the deals with low Y1 hits. They started the offseason #1 in 2022 cap space and are now 22nd.

KingChre · Mar 19, 2021

Super Nomario said:
And to be clear, they have a lot of future holes. Cam, Brown, Wynn, Hightower, Gilmore, Jackson, and McCourty are all free agents after 2021 as things stand. So there aren't a lot of 2021 holes to fill via the draft, but there are a bunch of 2022 holes they could look to target.

I was definitely one of those people who was too low on how much they'd do this offseason. We'll see how it plays out on the field, but obviously this team looks a lot better than it did a week ago.

Interestingly, they have mostly spent 2022 and 2023 cap space on these deals, not so much 2021 cap space. They have mostly backloaded the deals with low Y1 hits. They started the offseason #1 in 2022 cap space and are now 22nd.

Just out of curiosity where are you getting the 2022 numbers? I'm curious what figure is being used for projections. Not that it matters specifically to the Patriots as obviously the cap is the same for everyone. Just wondering how projections are taking the new TV deal into account.

Mystic Merlin · Mar 19, 2021

KingChre said:
Just out of curiosity where are you getting the 2022 numbers? I'm curious what figure is being used for projections. Not that it matters specifically to the Patriots as obviously the cap is the same for everyone. Just wondering how projections are taking the new TV deal into account.

They’re not, but the ranking would be the same no matter the level of the absolute cap.

The Pats are making a wise bet, I think, that the cap will rise in future years.

KingChre · Mar 19, 2021

Mystic Merlin said:
They’re not, but the ranking would be the same no matter the level of the absolute cap.

The Pats are making a wise bet, I think, that the cap will rise in future years.

Right. Hence the 3rd sentence of my post. I was asking for his resource for the 2022 cap figures...

Super Nomario · Mar 19, 2021

KingChre said:
Just out of curiosity where are you getting the 2022 numbers? I'm curious what figure is being used for projections. Not that it matters specifically to the Patriots as obviously the cap is the same for everyone. Just wondering how projections are taking the new TV deal into account.

OTC is projecting a $203 MM cap for 2022 FWIW.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

KingChre · Mar 19, 2021

Super Nomario said:
OTC is projecting a $203 MM cap for 2022 FWIW.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

Great, thank you!

MuppetAsteriskTalk · Mar 20, 2021

If they don't package up a large number of picks to move up for a QB, I would like to see them address S and OL, and perhaps the 3rd down back of the future. But I have no luck predicting what they will ever do.

Pats Depth Chart: an Early Look

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