Patriots Roster Projection 3.0

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
11,345
New York City
A couple of potential options:
1) Dwayne Allen could be gone in Miami after signing a deal that guaranteed him $1.25 MM this offseason. They would almost certainly trade him, but Pats would have to take his $3.25 MM cap number, with $1.25 MM guaranteed salary. But if he's cut, maybe they'd trust him more than Izzo?
2) Brandon Thorn threw out Nick Easton as a possibility after Andrews' condition came out. Easton signed a 4-year, $22.5 MM contract with the Saints this offseason, but New Orleans drafted Erik McCoy and Easton has been on kind of shaky ground this preseason. A deal works financially for both sides; the Saints would eat his $2 MM bonus but save his $2 MM guaranteed salary this year, while the Pats would take on his $2 MM in 2019 salary but have no guaranteed money after. Easton has started 17 NFL games at G and C so he'd give them some experience behind Karras.
Good possibilities but I think they likely go with some random young player who struck their fancy. A TE from the Titans, a young lineman from the Panthers, something like that.

EDIT: Also aren't veteran salaries guaranteed if you're on the week one roster? In which case Easton and Allen look more like week 2 guys.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
21,319
Hingham, MA
It depends on when they're paid out. I'd imagine the $100 K workout bonus has already been paid, but roster bonuses are usually week-to-week, so the Pats would be on the hook for those.
I thought roster bonus was being on the roster as of the start of the league year
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
12,085
Mansfield MA
Good possibilities but I think they likely go with some random young player who struck their fancy. A TE from the Titans, a young lineman from the Panthers, something like that.
We just saw that with Korey Cunningham, so this is certainly on the table. But I think it depends on what else they have at the position. At IOL, they have a young guy with upside in Froholdt; what they could use is a high-floor vet. At other positions, the makeup might be different.

EDIT: Also aren't veteran salaries guaranteed if you're on the week one roster? In which case Easton and Allen look more like week 2 guys.
Easton's $2 MM is guaranteed anyway. I do think Allen's making too much to reasonably trade for.

I thought roster bonus was being on the roster as of the start of the league year
They can be structured that way, or as week-to-week bonuses. I can't find details on Allen's contract terms. I'm guessing it's the latter based on the amount and the timing, but I'm not sure.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
21,319
Hingham, MA
We just saw that with Korey Cunningham, so this is certainly on the table. But I think it depends on what else they have at the position. At IOL, they have a young guy with upside in Froholdt; what they could use is a high-floor vet. At other positions, the makeup might be different.


Easton's $2 MM is guaranteed anyway. I do think Allen's making too much to reasonably trade for.


They can be structured that way, or as week-to-week bonuses. I can't find details on Allen's contract terms. I'm guessing it's the latter based on the amount and the timing, but I'm not sure.
From the article: "Allen was signed to a two-year, $6.5 million deal that guaranteed him $1.25 million"

If the $1.25M was guaranteed, doesn't that mean that the roster bonus was already paid out for him being on the team at the start of the league year? Otherwise if they cut him they would have no cap hit.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
12,085
Mansfield MA
From the article: "Allen was signed to a two-year, $6.5 million deal that guaranteed him $1.25 million"

If the $1.25M was guaranteed, doesn't that mean that the roster bonus was already paid out for him being on the team at the start of the league year? Otherwise if they cut him they would have no cap hit.
Over The Cap has $1.25 MM of his $1.9 MM 2019 salary as guaranteed, not his roster bonus. Roster bonuses by definition are not guaranteed because they're money you receive for being on the roster; thus, you don't get them if you're not on the roster, and thus, they are not guaranteed. It is possible that OTC's interpretation of the reporting on Allen's contract and / or the reporting itself on the contract is incorrect, but I find them to be pretty reliable.

EDIT: bizarrely, Spotrac has different info than OTC, with the Roster Bonus guaranteed (as noted above, I find this illogical).
 
Last edited:

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
21,319
Hingham, MA
Over The Cap has $1.25 MM of his $1.9 MM 2019 salary as guaranteed, not his roster bonus. Roster bonuses by definition are not guaranteed because they're money you receive for being on the roster; thus, you don't get them if you're not on the roster, and thus, they are not guaranteed. It is possible that OTC's interpretation of the reporting on Allen's contract and / or the reporting itself on the contract is incorrect, but I find them to be pretty reliable.

EDIT: bizarrely, Spotrac has different info than OTC, with the Roster Bonus guaranteed (as noted above, I find this illogical).
Because he was on the team at the start of the league year though it could make sense?
 

Over Guapo Grande

panty merchant
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2005
1,574
Worcester
Another potential lineman:

Eluemunor has played two seasons for the Ravens after being selected by Baltimore in the fifth round of the 2017 draft. He's made three starts for the Ravens (two at right guard and one at left tackle) and played guard and tackle in college at Texas A&M. Eluemunor is listed at 6-foot-4 and 338 pounds.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
12,085
Mansfield MA
Good possibilities but I think they likely go with some random young player who struck their fancy. A TE from the Titans, a young lineman from the Panthers, something like that.
We just saw that with Korey Cunningham, so this is certainly on the table. But I think it depends on what else they have at the position. At IOL, they have a young guy with upside in Froholdt; what they could use is a high-floor vet. At other positions, the makeup might be different.
Well never mind what I said, you were spot-on here @Shelterdog ...

Because he was on the team at the start of the league year though it could make sense?
It does look like you're right about how it's structured:
View: https://twitter.com/AdamHBeasley/status/1105884215432933378


I don't understand what reason there would be to structure a contract like that. If you're going to pay the money up front, why not make it a signing bonus and spread the hit over two seasons? It's an odd deal.

EDIT: this means Allen would only cost $1.9 MM salary for the season, with the roster and workout bonuses paid. If he can't crack Miami's roster, though, I think they can just wait until cutdown and pick him up for the vet minimum.
 
Last edited:

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
21,319
Hingham, MA
Well never mind what I said, you were spot-on here @Shelterdog ...


It does look like you're right about how it's structured:
View: https://twitter.com/AdamHBeasley/status/1105884215432933378


I don't understand what reason there would be to structure a contract like that. If you're going to pay the money up front, why not make it a signing bonus and spread the hit over two seasons? It's an odd deal.

EDIT: this means Allen would only cost $1.9 MM salary for the season, with the roster and workout bonuses paid. If he can't crack Miami's roster, though, I think they can just wait until cutdown and pick him up for the vet minimum.
Yeah I could see a trade for a conditional 7th though since it’s Flo.
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
9,049
WEEI said Cunningham deleted his post, so maybe the Pats only made one trade for an OL.
No source but Rotoworld has this confirmed for a 6th rd pick. They rarely put out rumors as a confirmed trade so I'd say high probability this is done.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
25,779
No source but Rotoworld has this confirmed for a 6th rd pick. They rarely put out rumors as a confirmed trade so I'd say high probability this is done.
Yes, they mentioned that Field Yates had tweeted out the 6th Rd. pick, but with very vague sourcing.
 

axx

lurker
Jul 16, 2005
6,179
Sounds like they really don't like their OL depth beyond Karras. Either this or they need bodies for the Giants game.
Unless it was conditional, that would be a waste. Rotoworld says Cunningham played in 6 games last year so I'm not sure if he has practice squad eligibility. Guessing no, which is why he was dealt.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
27,886
Elu looks like a lottery ticket. Given starter’s job in spring, failed conditioning test, then played-didn’t his way off the roster.

 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
11,345
New York City
Well never mind what I said, you were spot-on here @Shelterdog ...
It's not that they couldn't use a veteran OL, it's just that at this point of the year they seem to like picking up younger players at positions of weak depth and give them a test run. Dobrah and Hansen at WR last year, Marsh and Bademosi in 17, Thornton and Coleman in 15, Cave Barker and Francis in 13, Tennant and Salas in 12. Antwaun Moulden and AJ Edds, in 11, Steven Maneri (who was the guy I was thinking of) all the way back in 10, Woodhead way back whenever
 
Apr 24, 2019
233
Yeah, that sure as hell better reflect the Patriots Scouting Dept. view on the guy, and what they see as his potential moving forward with Dante. Otherwise, it feels of a piece with the second half of the TB12 BB Era - periodic trades where it’s like Belichick shrugs and says, “Just ask for, whatever, a 2nd for Jimmy G.” Hope he can get up to speed ASAP and make an impact.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
25,779
Zolak in the pregame says he's changed his mind. He expects the Pats to keep 3 QBs and Stidham to get every snap tonight.
 

vadertime

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
1,244
Rhode Island
How does the practice squad work? I know eligibility and teams can sign guys off other teams practice squads; but does it work like a waiver claim where a guy has to go the other team, or can he decide to stay on his current team's practice squad thinking that it may better serve him long term and turn down the other team?
 

Cotillion

lurker
Jun 11, 2019
94
Guys can choose to not be signed off a practice squad.

They are guaranteed like 3 weeks of salary if signed off though. So it can be an interesting dynamic if someone is getting paid more than minimum on the practice squad (also rare). I think the min for the whole year on practice squad is like 120-150K, and some make more but it all counts against the salary cap so you don't see a lot of practice squad guys making more.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,523
Guys can choose to not be signed off a practice squad.

They are guaranteed like 3 weeks of salary if signed off though. So it can be an interesting dynamic if someone is getting paid more than minimum on the practice squad (also rare). I think the min for the whole year on practice squad is like 120-150K, and some make more but it all counts against the salary cap so you don't see a lot of practice squad guys making more.
Practice squad salary in 2019 is $8,000 / week, which equals $136,000 if you make it the entire season, which obviously many players don’t. I’ve always felt this figure is incredibly low for a league that prints money.
 

Over Guapo Grande

panty merchant
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2005
1,574
Worcester
In the past, I know that the Pats (as well as other teams) have bumped up pay for certain practice squad players as an incentive to stick around. From a couple years back:

...the Patriots were known for paying practice-squad players more than the minimum as an incentive for them to stick with the club. That has continued this season, with defensive end Geneo Grissom given a base salary of $615,000, which is what he would have received if on the active roster. Consider that the minimum salary for practice-squad players, and what most earn across the NFL, is $122,400. The Patriots are also paying practice-squad players Willie Beavers ($255,000), Angelo Blackson ($255,000), D.J. Foster ($255,000) and Demarcus Ayers ($170,000) at an increased rate.
Mike Reiss 2017 link
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
12,085
Mansfield MA
How does the practice squad work? I know eligibility and teams can sign guys off other teams practice squads; but does it work like a waiver claim where a guy has to go the other team, or can he decide to stay on his current team's practice squad thinking that it may better serve him long term and turn down the other team?
They have to go through waivers first to be added to the practice squad. So if the Pats waive, say, Berrios, and the Lions put in a claim, he's a Lion (on the 53-man roster). Once he gets through waivers, he can sign to any PS (doesn't have to be NE, though usually it is). Once he's on the PS, he's got choices if the Lions try to sign him off the PS later (Patriots could raise his salary to convince him not to take the deal, for instance).
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
11,345
New York City
That’s real value we’re giving up. Hope Dante can mold him.
A late fourth round pick is really not that valuable; there's not much more than a one in three of four chance that that player becomes a contributor. Throw in the sixth round pick (about a one in six chance) and you're just not giving up all that much.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,523
A late fourth round pick is really not that valuable; there's not much more than a one in three of four chance that that player becomes a contributor. Throw in the sixth round pick (about a one in six chance) and you're just not giving up all that much.
This just isn’t true. Shaq Mason was a 4th. Ditto for James White. Wise as well. Flowers was 4th round pick albeit earlier. Gost as well.

This is real value we gave up. We’ve hit on a ton of 4th round picks, many at the later end.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
12,085
Mansfield MA
This just isn’t true. Shaq Mason was a 4th. Ditto for James White. Wise as well. Flowers was 4th round pick albeit earlier. Gost as well.

This is real value we gave up. We’ve hit on a ton of 4th round picks, many at the later end.
It is literally true; the hit rate on a 4th is something like 1 in 3 or 1 in 4, as @Shelterdog said. The Pats have had their hits, and also plenty of misses. There are also years where they don't even bother making a pick in the fourth because they don't like any of the options.

OTOH, it's more than just a flyer; for that price, Eleumunor is a roster lock barring disaster.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,523
It is literally true; the hit rate on a 4th is something like 1 in 3 or 1 in 4, as @Shelterdog said. The Pats have had their hits, and also plenty of misses. There are also years where they don't even bother making a pick in the fourth because they don't like any of the options.

OTOH, it's more than just a flyer; for that price, Eleumunor is a roster lock barring disaster.
No, it’s not. Hitting on those guys shows there is real value picking there, which was my point.

We can debate on how much value but the cost wasn’t negligible.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

T&A
SoSH Member
Feb 9, 2010
5,243
Providence, RI
This just isn’t true. Shaq Mason was a 4th. Ditto for James White. Wise as well. Flowers was 4th round pick albeit earlier. Gost as well.

This is real value we gave up. We’ve hit on a ton of 4th round picks, many at the later end.
You are correct. 4th round picks are valuable when you select a guy that is a home run but are not valuable when you select a guy who isn’t. Like Josh Boyce, Tre Jackson, Cameron Flemming. ESPN has done a great job of making people think the draft picks are more valuable then they actually are so that they can sell ads for this tv show.
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
36,071
I remember someone thinking Slater could get cut and Jeff Howe just called him as much of a lock as Brady.

Good article on the preseason here:
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,523
You are correct. 4th round picks are valuable when you select a guy that is a home run but are not valuable when you select a guy who isn’t. Like Josh Boyce, Tre Jackson, Cameron Flemming. ESPN has done a great job of making people think the draft picks are more valuable then they actually are so that they can sell ads for this tv show.
Go ahead and name me the 6th round hits of the Patriots the last decade. Roberts? Ebner? Edelman was a 7. I just reeled off a ton of impact guys in Round 4 off the top of my head.

My whole point was that we gave up real value. All we’re disagreeing on is how much value.
 

SMU_Sox

loves his fluffykins
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
6,227
Dallas
We have Chicago’s 4th. We probably have 3 thirds. You are downgrading one pick but they probably trade back with one of the 5 top 100 picks.0
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,523
We have Chicago’s 4th. We probably have 3 thirds. You are downgrading one pick but they probably trade back with one of the 5 top 100 picks.0
Yeah, I’m not questioning the move at all and I certainly trust their evaluation. We can easily get that value back in a trade.
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
12,877
Boston, NY
Several articles this morning have Gunner Olszewski making the team over Jakobi Meyers given the former's versatility. The failure of Meyers to connect with Brady in the 3rd exhibition game, albeit in the smallest of sample sizes, can't help either. To be clear, the versatility point is much more important.

From WEEI's site:
In a bit of a surprise, we have Olszewski making the team over Jakobi Meyers. The thought process is it’s the No. 4/5 receiver spot and typically that spot on the roster has some special teams value. Meyers really doesn’t have any where as Olszewski can play all over the field, including return kicks and punts. The team would ideally slip Meyers through waivers and onto the practice squad, though. Meanwhile, Braxton Berrios just hasn’t done enough to earn a spot. (

And Olszewski even played some corner last night, giving BB one more reason to favor him.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
25,779
On the broadcast last night, I believe Ninkovich was starting to describe what he thought the injury to Froholdt was, but Socci or Zolak interrupted him and they never got back to it.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
12,085
Mansfield MA
Several articles this morning have Gunner Olszewski making the team over Jakobi Meyers given the former's versatility. The failure of Meyers to connect with Brady in the 3rd exhibition game, albeit in the smallest of sample sizes, can't help either. To be clear, the versatility point is much more important.

From WEEI's site:



And Olszewski even played some corner last night, giving BB one more reason to favor him.
I get the logic here, but Olszewski seems way, way more likely to pass through waivers than Meyers.
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
36,071
Several articles this morning have Gunner Olszewski making the team over Jakobi Meyers given the former's versatility. The failure of Meyers to connect with Brady in the 3rd exhibition game, albeit in the smallest of sample sizes, can't help either. To be clear, the versatility point is much more important.

From WEEI's site:



And Olszewski even played some corner last night, giving BB one more reason to favor him.
It's Belichick so you never really know, but this strikes me as trying to be too cute with the predictions. If he's right, he trumpets it all year. If not, no one really cares because the season starts next week.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
25,779
I get the logic here, but Olszewski seems way, way more likely to pass through waivers than Meyers.
Maybe they both make the 53 and the Pats have 1 TE until Watson returns? Winovich might be a "Vrabel" TE.

Putting Olszewski on defense last night and loudly broadcasting his versatility & willingness seemingly doesn't square with getting him through waivers and onto the PS.
 
Last edited:

Lose Remerswaal

Leaves after the 8th inning
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Go ahead and name me the 6th round hits of the Patriots the last decade. Roberts? Ebner? Edelman was a 7. I just reeled off a ton of impact guys in Round 4 off the top of my head.

My whole point was that we gave up real value. All we’re disagreeing on is how much value.
I mean there was a QB a few years back who is still on the roster and contributing. I know that's outside your arbitrary "last decade" limit, but I think it matters if a guy is still productive


And Karras was a 6th Rounder. Just with him and Elandon and Ebner you're probably looking at better results than most teams
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,523
I mean there was a QB a few years back who is still on the roster and contributing. I know that's outside your arbitrary "last decade" limit, but I think it matters if a guy is still productive
Ha, knew this post was coming. But go ahead and go back 20 years. The hit rate on 4th vs 6th isn’t the same.
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
8,591
No, it’s not. Hitting on those guys shows there is real value picking there, which was my point.

We can debate on how much value but the cost wasn’t negligible.
That's not really how probabilistic value calculation works. We hit on Tom Brady in the 6th but that doesn't mean the odds then are good; far more likely, the goods are odd. Value of the pick scales down accordingly.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
31,523
That's not really how probabilistic value calculation works. We hit on Tom Brady in the 6th but that doesn't mean the odds then are good; far more likely, the goods are odd. Value of the pick scales down accordingly.
I never once said the odds in the 4th round are good. I said there is real value, which I demonstrated.
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
9,049
If Gunner doesn't make the team who returns kicks? I think there is as much value in him just as a kick returner as any other fringe player. Seems like Gunner returned about 80% of the kicks in the pre-season and did it very well for the most part. Given how much value Bill puts on special teams and esp field position in the kicking game I think Gunner is on the 53.

Too many of the WR don't play ST. That is the real challenge this roster has.
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
12,877
Boston, NY
It's Belichick so you never really know, but this strikes me as trying to be too cute with the predictions. If he's right, he trumpets it all year. If not, no one really cares because the season starts next week.
I hear you. The article was a "staff" article with no name on it but that it's "they" and not "he" doesn't really change your point. That BB was using Gunner on D last night does suggest to me that the HC views this as a close call and wanted to get every possible bit of input regarding overall value.

In the end, I can see either of these guys not actually suiting up lots of weeks in the event that the other WRs are all healthy. With Harry still recovering from the hamstring, that event may not happen week 1.
 

InstaFace

MDLzera
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
8,591
I never once said the odds in the 4th round are good. I said there is real value, which I demonstrated.
If by "real value" you mean "any measurable value at all", then sure, there's real value in the 7th because Edelman, there's "real value" in UDFAs because Malcolm Butler etc. The term can quickly lose all meaning if you define it to mean whatever you want it to mean. But the odds of getting any value for it, and the distribution of how much value among the hits, matters a lot.

The only question in my mind is whether Elu outperforms the weighted-average expectations of a late 4th. He could do that just by making the team and getting into some games, frankly.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
27,886
I never once said the odds in the 4th round are good. I said there is real value, which I demonstrated.
And I think they got value in Elu. If he could not play, he would not have stuck with the Ravens as long as he did, and certainly would not have been penciled in as starter as guard this spring.

Shit happens. The Ravens cut bait with him for the very sort of reasons the Patriots would have if the sequence were reversed.

Some guys need a change of scenery. It has not been fun to watch Cyrus Jones play well enough for the Ravens, but it is what it is. Maybe it plays out that way for Elu in NE.
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
9,049
And I think they got value in Elu. If he could not play, he would not have stuck with the Ravens as long as he did, and certainly would not have been penciled in as starter as guard this spring.

Shit happens. The Ravens cut bait with him for the very sort of reasons the Patriots would have if the sequence were reversed.

Some guys need a change of scenery. It has not been fun to watch Cyrus Jones play well enough for the Ravens, but it is what it is. Maybe it plays out that way for Elu in NE.
That certainly remains to be seen. He was a 5th rd pick in 17 and has started 3 games in his career. Ravens made out quite well getting a 4th for a guy they drafted in the 5th who didn't really contribute and will be an RFA next year. How much tape can there be on a guy who only started 3 games in 2 seasons? Only dressed for 9 games.