Pacquiao vs. Mayweather 5/2: Better late than never!

Marciano490

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WayBackVazquez said:
9001 Floyd Mayweather Jr     -300     
9002 Manny Pacquiao     +220 
 
 
Oof, I think Floyd wins, but love those early odds for Manny.
 

Marciano490

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Who's going? It's the day after my birthday. Definitely using this as the centerpiece of a Vegas weekend.
 
M

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Of course Skrub is going.  Someday I just hope you take the time to remember it all in your memoirs, dude.
 
I'm reminded of this 538 piece from a few months ago, basically saying Pacquiao's window has passed.  I have absolutely no idea what weight to put on the BoxRec rating system, though.
 

mascho

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That Saturday will have MLB games (including Yankees at Fenway) Rounds 4-7 of the NFL Draft, Saturday of the World Golf Championships, Kentucky Derby, and Floyd-Pacman. That is a fucking day. Even my wife was impressed at that lineup.
 

Kliq

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Probably NBA/NHL playoff games as well. At least three years too late for these guys, but it will create a buzz for boxing that hasn't been around for at least a decade. Rooting for Pacquio, but I think Floyd is probably the better fighter at this stage of their careers.
 

ElUno20

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I would have paid money to have been in the room with cotto when fight was announced. Way to go jackass, good luck finding any fight close to canelo money wise
 

PseuFighter

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Waiting to see what tickets are like and if I can dig up a good reason to be in Vegas. Not sure if there's going to be a public sale for this (rather than selling all of the tickets as packages with hotel rooms, etc).
 

ElUno20

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PayrodsFirstClutchHit said:
This would have been a true "super fight" 5 years ago. Now it will be a over-hyped match with past their prime boxers in a sport that is 10 minutes from fading into obscurity.  
Im not going to derail this thread but boxing has been 10 minutes away from death for like 20 years now. It's not happening
 

Vegas Sox Fan

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Mark Schofield said:
That Saturday will have MLB games (including Yankees at Fenway) Rounds 4-7 of the NFL Draft, Saturday of the World Golf Championships, Kentucky Derby, and Floyd-Pacman. That is a fucking day. Even my wife was impressed at that lineup.
I will have a one month old in my house so there needs to be a bash if anyone is in town for this.
 

Vinho Tinto

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The idea that this isn't a superfight is insane. I know people who booked flights for this in January anticipating it was finally happening. As we get close to fight day, the hype will be stifling. This will feel like the big fights of the 80s and 90s.

What will the PPV price be?
 

Marciano490

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PayrodsFirstClutchHit said:
This would have been a true "super fight" 5 years ago. Now it will be a over-hyped match with past their prime boxers in a sport that is 10 minutes from fading into obscurity.  
I'd love to hear your rationale for anything in this post, because in what I'm guessing is my much more qualified opinion everything in this post is incorrect.
 

ElUno20

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Oddly enough i think this is a bigger fight now. Not better boxing wise but the what ifs of the past 5 years have actualy made these 2 bigger stars.
 

Marciano490

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ElUno20 said:
Oddly enough i think this is a bigger fight now. Not better boxing wise but the what ifs of the past 5 years have actualy made these 2 bigger stars.
Yes. This will be the biggest fight in boxing history. Both men will make more on a single day than any other athlete. Not a bad death rattle.
 

Marciano490

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I will say there's probably like a 20% chance PBF claims an injury in camp and cancels.
 

thestardawg

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Why so low?
 
Both fighters have a ton of mileage on them, and 5 years ago I think Floyd wins 8/10 times handily, and Manny sneaks out a couple decisions.  I think it's more like 6/10 now.  Floyd's speed is declining much more than Manny. 
 
I think it's a fascinating fight.  I could see Floyd knocking out Manny with a counter.  I could see Manny being as active as Maidana was, and getting Floyd out of there.  It's an extremely interesting fight at this point. 
 

Marciano490

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I'm the opposite. I think old tempest Manny overwhelms Floyd, but in May I think PBF's accurate punching and ability to counter will win over Manny's increasingly sloppy style and inability to carry his power into the higher weight classes.
 

ElUno20

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You guys sound as salty as jim lampley ruining the karma by hinting at the same thing tonight. No one is getting injured and if they do you will hear about it may 3. The pay day is too big for any delay.

ill just be happy all the floyd is scared of manny bullshit will cease. Fighters at their level dont fear shit.

This was, and always has been, about control. floyd needed to have his ego stroked as the A side. And in the process he's helped both of them. Manny wasnt sniffing 100 mill if they made this in 2009.
 
M

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Skip Bayless pens the most Bayless column ever, arguing Pacquiao will knock out Mayweather.  It boils down to:
 
- Mayweather finally agreed to the fight because he was worried about his legacy and thought Pacquiao had gone soft with his singing and political careers
- Mayweather's excuses about steroids were lame, he shouldn't have been worried even if Manny were all roided up, because so long as they're the same weight, who cares?
- Mayweather's advantage over every other opponent has been his hand speed, but Pacquiao's got the same speed
- Pacquiao has "Far more natural punching power", while Mayweather has "soft hands" that are often sore.  Pacquiao's trainer says Floyd "doesn't sit down on punches that often".
- Mayweather struggles against left-handers, and Pacquiao is the best lefty in the world
- Age is more of a factor for Mayweather (38) than Pacquiao (36)
- Pacquiao's loss to Bradley was an outrageous judging decision, and his loss to Marquez was on their 4th rematch in the last second of a round when he got KO'd, and in either case, Manny's heart wasn't in it, he'd rather have been fighting Mayweather.  OK, Skip.
- Pacquiao won't be intimidated by pre-fight nonsense because he grew up in a third-world ghetto and has seen some shit.
 
I'm probably rooting for Manny, but unless Marciano comes in and tells me there's something to the lefty weakness or relative aging or punching power, I'm going to chalk this up to a standard Bayless troll job.
 

Marciano490

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Point 1 is valid.  Floyd defnitely waited till the time was right for this fight.
 
Point 3 - Pacquiao does not have the same handspeed as Floyd.  His footwork is better and he has more power, but he's not as fast as PBF.
 
Point 4 is true.
 
Point 5 - meh.  Floyd doesn't really struggle against anyone.  The southpaw jinx is kind of a myth at Floyd's level - he's faced enough to know how to adjust, and it's not as though lefties have an inherent advantage against conventional fighters.  Also, Floyd's best punch is his straight right, which also happens to be the most effective punch against a southpaw.
 
Point 6 - Mayweather is older, but Manny's been in far more wars.  Manny has far more mileage.
 
Point 7 - I agree with some of this.  People got down on Manny because of those two losses, but that's nonsense.  The Bradley decision was horrific.  Manny won that fight 9-3 at worst.  The Marquez ko is what can happen when two hall of famers fighter 40 rounds.  Marquez is legit and it was a helluva punch at the last second of a round.  There was some concern Manny would come back changed from that punch, but that hasn't proven true. I don't dock Manny for that fight.  It was a lapse in concentration that won't ever happen again.
 
Point 8 - I dunno. I'm sure Manny won't be intimidated, but I don't know how much is do to his upbringing and how much do to his long career and many title/mega fights.
 

WayBackVazquez

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The press conference will be tomorrow from L.A. at 1:30 PDT. They should announce details about whatever nominal public ticket sales there will be shortly thereafter.
 

ElUno20

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Ive never seen the hunger games but i think they should use a similar death contest for the few tickets
 

Marciano490

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ElUno20 said:
Manny is a little dude, floyd looked like a giant next to him.
 
Yeah, funny seeing them face to face.  Thing is, though, Floyd isn't really a fighter to impose his size advantage on smaller fighters when the opportunities arise.  I wouldn't expect him to bully Pacquiao here.
 

Marciano490

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Myt1 said:
What would you put the line at?
 
Shit, man, that's tough.  I'm having trouble figuring out whether Floyd has been playing possum lately/letting himself get hit to make his fights more interesting or whether his reflexes have slowed and his defense has cracked.  At times, he looks as sharp as ever, but I can't imagine vintage Floyd takes the shots he did from Cotto or Maidana.  He's also developed a frustrating habit of fighting against the ropes more which lets slower fighters like Cotto and Maidana catch up.  That said, he hasn't really seemed phased by a shot since Mosley, though some of the Maidana blows looked like they must've hurt.
 
The problem with predicting the fight is that not only has neither fighter ever fought someone of the other fighter's caliber, neither has really fought anyone credible with the other's style.  I guess Maidana has Manny's dervishness, but none of his footwork and he's even more wild than Manny has let himself become lately.  I'm trying to remember the last time Manny fought a pure defensive fighter/counterpuncher.  I guess Clottey would be the closest, but he's light years from Floyd and basically just stood there and lost 12-0, 11-1, 11-1 I believe. 
 
Still, I think the difference in the fight is going to be Manny's recent wildness and Floyd's effective straight right.  Maybe Freddie will get Manny jabbing, but that strategy didn't exactly work for DLH over twelve rounds as Floyd adjusted and started shooting his right hand over top of Oscar's jab.  If you're asking me the lines I'd feel comfortable betting at, well I still think Floyd's the slight favorite, but wouldn't put money on him at anything over -125.  I see the line currently has Floyd -200 which is absurd.  If I were going to bet, it'd probably be taking Floyd to win by decision at -130, that's about the closest to what I think the true line should be, and if you're going to bet on Floyd, you're pretty much betting on a decision anyways.
 

Myt1

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People around here, especially the white guys who gamble on the lines I'd be looking at, hate Mayweather.  I'd be a little surprised if that didn't affect the line, making Manny like the Patriots with the hometown bump.
 
M

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Gate Receipts expected to be $74M from just 15,000 seats - an average of nearly $5,000 per seat.  Not that they'll be publicly available, of course.  And over $300M expected from PPV take.
 
Slightly fluffy article, but some good background on the business going out here.  Also, some sweet artwork:
 
https://twitter.com/danrafaelespn/status/580093738598404096/
 

Marciano490

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Those projections just underscore how crazy it is this fight took so long to come together.  I'm trying to think of another example where people would leave that much money on the table in a legal venture. Hell, what percentage of people - even middle class and above - would engage in a Burr-Hamilton style pistol duel for that kind of cash?
 
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Marciano490 said:
Hell, what percentage of people - even middle class and above - would engage in a Burr-Hamilton style pistol duel for that kind of cash?
 
This would be a good P&G thread to start on a slow day.  So, I've got a 50% chance of being dead, and a 50% chance of unnecessarily killing a man by my own hand, but getting, say, $150M?  I think I like life too much to take that coin flip.  You'd need a quite desperate, depressed megalomaniac to take a coin flip like that, I think.  So my answer to your question would be "probably way fewer than you'd expect".
 
I dunno, I think the maximum chance of death that I would risk even in exchange for unlimited money would be about 5%.  I think I'd take a 19-in-20 chance of being wealthy beyond belief and a 1-in-20 chance of being dead, but that's about as far as I'd go.  And that's before you get into the guilt of killing another person, even if they did sign up for it.
 

Infield Infidel

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Marciano490 said:
Those projections just underscore how crazy it is this fight took so long to come together.  I'm trying to think of another example where people would leave that much money on the table in a legal venture. Hell, what percentage of people - even middle class and above - would engage in a Burr-Hamilton style pistol duel for that kind of cash?
 
Forget how long, they could have had two or three fights. If the first two were split, it would be pushing a billion dollars. 
 

Marciano490

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Infield Infidel said:
 
Forget how long, they could have had two or three fights. If the first two were split, it would be pushing a billion dollars. 
 
Another good point, but I think there's still time for a trilogy assuming the first fight makes that marketable.  Floyd has slowed down a bit, but he's taken so little damage in his career, and has such a high, Hopkins-esque boxing IQ that, if the hunger's there, he should be able to fight at a very high level for another 3-5 years.  Manny's obviously suffered more knockdowns and hard shots, but is a couple years younger and still in prime shape.  Of course, he's had his motivation level questioned for a few years running now.
 

kenneycb

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Marciano490 said:
 
Another good point, but I think there's still time for a trilogy assuming the first fight makes that marketable.  Floyd has slowed down a bit, but he's taken so little damage in his career, and has such a high, Hopkins-esque boxing IQ that, if the hunger's there, he should be able to fight at a very high level for another 3-5 years.  Manny's obviously suffered more knockdowns and hard shots, but is a couple years younger and still in prime shape.  Of course, he's had his motivation level questioned for a few years running now.
And his bank account level questioned.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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Anyone have any idea what time this fight will actually start? I've never bought a fight before, but will probably do a party for this one and have a BBQ with the Kentucky Derby going on earlier in the afternoon.
 
I'm thinking PPV coverage starts at 9PM so the main event is probably around 11PM Eastern?
 

Marciano490

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Yeah 11 is a good bet. Always depends on the undercard, of course. But I'd say most main events start between 1045 and 1120.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Question for the boxing aficionados: When was the last fight this big (in any weight class)?  Not judged by money, just in terms of overall importance and hype for boxing fans.