Only God Can Judge Judge

jon abbey

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Judge won back to back AL Player of the Month awards today, only the second Yankee ever to do that (it's a more modern award) after Mattingly in his MVP year of 1985.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Judge won back to back AL Player of the Month awards today, only the second Yankee ever to do that (it's a more modern award) after Mattingly in his MVP year of 1985.
Interestingly, Harper ALSO won back to back PotM awards (NL) this month.

Looks like there've been around 14 back-to-back AL PotM awards:
  1. Tanana co-winner September 1976, winner April 1977
  2. Eddie Murray co-winner September 1981, winner April 1982
  3. Mattingly 1985
  4. Puckett 1992
  5. Edgar 1992
  6. Belle 1995
  7. ARod 2002
  8. Josh Hamilton 2008
  9. Bautista 2010
  10. Bautista 2011
  11. Hamilton 2012
  12. Shohei 2021
  13. Shohei 2023
  14. Judge 2024
McGwire actually won the NL PotM 3 months in a row, September 1997, April 1998, May 1998. It looks like 14 have won back-to-back NL PotM awards.

Bonds won 13 awards, ARod 10, Judge/Thomas 8, Belle/Pujols 7. The next highest active players are Cutch & Trout with 5 each.

NL has given this award since 1958, AL since 1974.
 

BaseballJones

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I'm going to be curious to see where Judge "ranks" among all-time Yankee greats by the time his career is done. Obviously his peak is inner circle all-timer in the Yankee organization. We'll have to see how long it lasts, but holy smokes this guy.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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I'm going to be curious to see where Judge "ranks" among all-time Yankee greats by the time his career is done. Obviously his peak is inner circle all-timer in the Yankee organization. We'll have to see how long it lasts, but holy smokes this guy.
My immediate, high level, baseline response is to cite JAWS.

WAR as a Yankee, https://stathead.com/tiny/qip1G, followed by their Top 7 seasons' WAR as cobbled together by me, and then the calculated "only Yankees Jaws," which I then sorted by. I took these 11 because Judge is currently 11th all time in Position Player Yankee WAR.
  1. Ruth 142.8 84.7 113.8
  2. Gehrig 113.7 67.6 90.7
  3. Mantle 110.2 64.7 87.5
  4. DiMaggio 79.1 52.1 65.6
  5. Jeter 71.3 42.4 56.8
  6. ARod 54.0 46.1 50.1
  7. Berra 59.6 38.0 48.8
  8. Judge 47.7 46.8 47.2
  9. Dickey 56.4 35.4 45.9
  10. Willie Randolph 54.1 36.1 45.1
  11. Bernie Williams 49.9 37.6 43.6
So, Judge is already 8th in Yankees JAWS. Judge is on pace for around 12 WAR this year, but let's instead use FG's rest of season projection, and call it 4.3 more, for a total of 10.7. This would put him at 51.6 Y-JAWS, already ahead of ARod and Berra for 6th.

What would be a moderate projection for him going forward? I tried a version of a Marcel projection, and came up with 7.5 WAR for next year (ZIPS has 4.5 for next year and 3.9 for 2026, but that doesn't include current season performance and they projected 5.8 this year). I'll deduct half a WAR every season going forward, ending with him at 4.5 WAR for his age 39/2031 season. I think this is probably optimistic in the out years. That'd be career 94.1 WAR, 56.3 Peak7WAR, JAWS of 75.2, halfway between Mantle & DiMaggio.

Again, I think that's an optimistic forecast, but I think Jeter is a low bar for him to clear at this point and DiMaggio is perfectly reasonable. Mantle's peak is so absurd (2 11+ WAR seasons), and he started so young (19 to Judge's 24), that Judge would need to have WAR totals of 9.5, decreasing by half a win going forward, rather than 7.5 to match him.
 

jon abbey

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Also Judge will move to 1B or DH at some point, that will make it harder to pile up WAR.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Also Judge will move to 1B or DH at some point, that will make it harder to pile up WAR.
Yeah - theoretically, that standard aging curve rule of thumb accounts for increased injury/less playing time/sliding on the defensive spectrum, but I think it was also developed in the era where people played longer and better for.... reasons.
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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I hate the fucking Yankees and will always root for them to lose, but I find myself checking their box scores almost daily to see if Judge hit a dinger and god damnit I’m kind of a fan of the guy. Another bomb tonight (32), 3-4 and an OPS of 1.158 now. What a beast.
It pains me that two of my all time favorite baseball players are Yankees (Mariano and Judge). Fortunately, there are a lot more Yankees that I despise, so the universe remains in balance and I can live with myself.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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If I'm doing the math right, he's now at .403/.512/.949/1.460 for his last 50 games? That blows all the righties away, even over small PA samples and cross-seasons. Just Ted/Ruth/Bonds with better stretches.
0 for 7 with a walk over the last two days will certainly knock him off that pace. They replace 3/6, 2B, HR, 3 BB in the 50 game span, and he's "down" to .384/.486/.904/1.390.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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0 for 7 with a walk over the last two days will certainly knock him off that pace. They replace 3/6, 2B, HR, 3 BB in the 50 game span, and he's "down" to .384/.486/.904/1.390.
Judge with a poor series, 2/13 with a walk and no XBH. 0.154/0.214/0.154/0.368, brings his 50 game rates down to .369/.475/.838/1.313. His season OPS hit a high of 1.158 on 7/2, and has dropped to 1.105 over 5 games. In the 50 game span, he's now replacing games during his hot streak, so it'll be pretty difficult for him to top that 1.460 stretch.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Judge with a poor series, 2/13 with a walk and no XBH. 0.154/0.214/0.154/0.368, brings his 50 game rates down to .369/.475/.838/1.313. His season OPS hit a high of 1.158 on 7/2, and has dropped to 1.105 over 5 games. In the 50 game span, he's now replacing games during his hot streak, so it'll be pretty difficult for him to top that 1.460 stretch.
My Yankee friend (listen... the guy isn't too bright) was texting me the whole series and came down pretty hard on Judge as an "empty player like ARod!!!!" (quoting), that "when it matters the guy always comes up half his size". I can't say I wasn't enjoying it and he claimed he'd be happy to trade us Duran for Judge any day (Duran didn't exactly play well this series). Just comical but I wonder if this is shared by a lot of MFY "fans"
 

jon abbey

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My Yankee friend (listen... the guy isn't too bright) was texting me the whole series and came down pretty hard on Judge as an "empty player like ARod!!!!" (quoting), that "when it matters the guy always comes up half his size". I can't say I wasn't enjoying it and he claimed he'd be happy to trade us Duran for Judge any day (Duran didn't exactly play well this series). Just comical but I wonder if this is shared by a lot of MFY "fans"
No.

We would like to replace the six guys behind him, though.
 

jon abbey

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Same idiots that booed Judge at home during the postseason after his 62 HR season, would be awesome if those people found a different team to root for.
 

Al Zarilla

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Every team has them. Just look at some of the people commenting on Tatum during this year's playoffs.
With Tatum though, almost all Celtics fans praised him for doing everything else (if not scoring) this post season very well. And, anyone that trashes a player for not hitting in one or two or even three series isn’t very much with it. Ted Williams once went 0 for 18.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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With Tatum though, almost all Celtics fans praised him for doing everything else (if not scoring) this post season very well. And, anyone that trashes a player for not hitting in one or two or even three series isn’t very much with it. Ted Williams once went 0 for 18.
Get ridda da bum!!!
 

ThePrideofShiner

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My Yankee friend (listen... the guy isn't too bright) was texting me the whole series and came down pretty hard on Judge as an "empty player like ARod!!!!" (quoting), that "when it matters the guy always comes up half his size". I can't say I wasn't enjoying it and he claimed he'd be happy to trade us Duran for Judge any day (Duran didn't exactly play well this series). Just comical but I wonder if this is shared by a lot of MFY "fans"
Shoot, just to stir the pot you should point out that ARod at least won a World Series.

Seriously, though, if I was going to ever make an empty stats joke it would be about Stanton, not Judge. Yankees fans have lost their minds if they think Judge is the problem.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Shoot, just to stir the pot you should point out that ARod at least won a World Series.

Seriously, though, if I was going to ever make an empty stats joke it would be about Stanton, not Judge. Yankees fans have lost their minds if they think Judge is the problem.
To be fair (no, it's not actually fair, but whatever), Judge does have meaningfully negative Clutch scores (-7.07 career, -1.90 this year, -1.78 2023, -1.43 2022), which has indicated he has performed better in lower leverage situations than in higher leverage ones. At the same time, out of 160 players with 500+ high leverage PAs between 2016-2024, he's still got the 8th highest OPS, batting .255/.393/.534/.927, which is pretty fantastic! Just not as good as his career .284/.399/.595/.994.

https://stathead.com/tiny/iWdEi

Over this same timeframe, Using B-R's Clutch, he's only at -6.0 for his career. This is tied for 5th worst - but of course you have to hit pretty great to have the chance to underperform by that much! See the leaders:
  1. Semien -8.5
  2. Bryan -7.5
  3. Realmuto -7.1
  4. Trout -6.9
  5. Judge -6.0
  6. Goldschmidt -6.0
  7. Martin Maldanado (!) -6.0
  8. Gallo -6.0
https://stathead.com/tiny/aOj8o

On the flip side, here are the leaders in positive Clutch:
  1. Frazier 5.7
  2. Edman 4.5
  3. McMahon 4.4
  4. Polanco 4.4
  5. Descalso 3.9
  6. Bohm 3.8
  7. Laureano 3.8
  8. Merrifield 3.6
  9. Melky Cabrera 3.5
https://stathead.com/tiny/lSV2m

Edit: Adding one more leaderboard, Most negative career Clutch ever - 82 players match or exceed Judge's -6.0:
  1. Sosa -17.3
  2. Frank Robinson -15.6
  3. Thome -13.6
  4. Parrish -12.7
  5. ARod -10.9
  6. Schmidt -10.9
  7. Beltre -10.6
  8. Semien -10.3
  9. Dye -10.2
  10. Hidalgo -10.1
https://stathead.com/tiny/aRKYF

And that list, but only for Yankees:
  1. Ruth -8.4
  2. Judge -6.0
  3. Gary Sanchez -5.4
  4. Cano -5.2
  5. ARod -4.9
  6. Hank Bauer -4.3
  7. Joe Gordon -4.0
https://stathead.com/tiny/LTxHj
 

SirPsychoSquints

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To be fair (no, it's not actually fair, but whatever), Judge does have meaningfully negative Clutch scores (-7.07 career, -1.90 this year, -1.78 2023, -1.43 2022), which has indicated he has performed better in lower leverage situations than in higher leverage ones. At the same time, out of 160 players with 500+ high leverage PAs between 2016-2024, he's still got the 8th highest OPS, batting .255/.393/.534/.927, which is pretty fantastic! Just not as good as his career .284/.399/.595/.994.

https://stathead.com/tiny/iWdEi

Over this same timeframe, Using B-R's Clutch, he's only at -6.0 for his career. This is tied for 5th worst - but of course you have to hit pretty great to have the chance to underperform by that much! See the leaders:
  1. Semien -8.5
  2. Bryan -7.5
  3. Realmuto -7.1
  4. Trout -6.9
  5. Judge -6.0
  6. Goldschmidt -6.0
  7. Martin Maldanado (!) -6.0
  8. Gallo -6.0
https://stathead.com/tiny/aOj8o

On the flip side, here are the leaders in positive Clutch:
  1. Frazier 5.7
  2. Edman 4.5
  3. McMahon 4.4
  4. Polanco 4.4
  5. Descalso 3.9
  6. Bohm 3.8
  7. Laureano 3.8
  8. Merrifield 3.6
  9. Melky Cabrera 3.5
https://stathead.com/tiny/lSV2m

Edit: Adding one more leaderboard, Most negative career Clutch ever - 82 players match or exceed Judge's -6.0:
  1. Sosa -17.3
  2. Frank Robinson -15.6
  3. Thome -13.6
  4. Parrish -12.7
  5. ARod -10.9
  6. Schmidt -10.9
  7. Beltre -10.6
  8. Semien -10.3
  9. Dye -10.2
  10. Hidalgo -10.1
https://stathead.com/tiny/aRKYF

And that list, but only for Yankees:
  1. Ruth -8.4
  2. Judge -6.0
  3. Gary Sanchez -5.4
  4. Cano -5.2
  5. ARod -4.9
  6. Hank Bauer -4.3
  7. Joe Gordon -4.0
https://stathead.com/tiny/LTxHj
Just because I feel like continuing down this tangent - leaders all time in WPA are the people you'd expect https://stathead.com/tiny/gwZIS
  1. Bonds 127.7
  2. Ruth 122.7
  3. Ted 104.6
  4. Mays 102.6
  5. Aaron 99.7
  6. Mantle 94.5
  7. Gehrig 90.2
  8. Musial 86.3
  9. Ott 82.2
  10. Hornsby 78.7
Judge is T-185, with Jose Canseco, at 26.2 wins of WPA. In half the PA of Canseco, 1/3 of Bonds/Mays, 40% of Ruth/Ted. In fact, no one in baseball history has even 25 WPA with fewer PA than Judge (4,023).

Among active players, Judge is 11th in WPA - here's the top 11 in WPA, with their PA listed https://stathead.com/tiny/UgKy3
  1. Votto 51.6 8,746
  2. Trout 50.7 6,647
  3. Freeman 43.5 8,504
  4. Goldschmidt 42.6 6,878
  5. Harper 40.3 6,794
  6. Mookie 31.3 6,088
  7. Cutch 31.2 8,974
  8. Rizzo 30.8 7,252
  9. Yelich 27.7 6,357
  10. Stanton 26.9 6,718
  11. Judge 26.2 4,023
I do think it's worth pointing out once in a while that Trout/Yelich/Judge are all in their age 32 seasons, and Mookie and Harper are both in their age 31 seasons, so it's not like Judge can "catch up" to these guys automatically.

But the overall point is, even if Judge is vaguely "unclutch," he's still monstrously productive even in high leverage.