Only God Can Judge Judge
- Thread starter jon abbey
- Start date
Interestingly, Harper ALSO won back to back PotM awards (NL) this month.
Looks like there've been around 14 back-to-back AL PotM awards:
- Tanana co-winner September 1976, winner April 1977
- Eddie Murray co-winner September 1981, winner April 1982
- Mattingly 1985
- Puckett 1992
- Edgar 1992
- Belle 1995
- ARod 2002
- Josh Hamilton 2008
- Bautista 2010
- Bautista 2011
- Hamilton 2012
- Shohei 2021
- Shohei 2023
- Judge 2024
Bonds won 13 awards, ARod 10, Judge/Thomas 8, Belle/Pujols 7. The next highest active players are Cutch & Trout with 5 each.
NL has given this award since 1958, AL since 1974.
I'm going to be curious to see where Judge "ranks" among all-time Yankee greats by the time his career is done. Obviously his peak is inner circle all-timer in the Yankee organization. We'll have to see how long it lasts, but holy smokes this guy.
My immediate, high level, baseline response is to cite JAWS.
WAR as a Yankee, https://stathead.com/tiny/qip1G, followed by their Top 7 seasons' WAR as cobbled together by me, and then the calculated "only Yankees Jaws," which I then sorted by. I took these 11 because Judge is currently 11th all time in Position Player Yankee WAR.
- Ruth 142.8 84.7 113.8
- Gehrig 113.7 67.6 90.7
- Mantle 110.2 64.7 87.5
- DiMaggio 79.1 52.1 65.6
- Jeter 71.3 42.4 56.8
- ARod 54.0 46.1 50.1
- Berra 59.6 38.0 48.8
- Judge 47.7 46.8 47.2
- Dickey 56.4 35.4 45.9
- Willie Randolph 54.1 36.1 45.1
- Bernie Williams 49.9 37.6 43.6
What would be a moderate projection for him going forward? I tried a version of a Marcel projection, and came up with 7.5 WAR for next year (ZIPS has 4.5 for next year and 3.9 for 2026, but that doesn't include current season performance and they projected 5.8 this year). I'll deduct half a WAR every season going forward, ending with him at 4.5 WAR for his age 39/2031 season. I think this is probably optimistic in the out years. That'd be career 94.1 WAR, 56.3 Peak7WAR, JAWS of 75.2, halfway between Mantle & DiMaggio.
Again, I think that's an optimistic forecast, but I think Jeter is a low bar for him to clear at this point and DiMaggio is perfectly reasonable. Mantle's peak is so absurd (2 11+ WAR seasons), and he started so young (19 to Judge's 24), that Judge would need to have WAR totals of 9.5, decreasing by half a win going forward, rather than 7.5 to match him.
Yeah - theoretically, that standard aging curve rule of thumb accounts for increased injury/less playing time/sliding on the defensive spectrum, but I think it was also developed in the era where people played longer and better for.... reasons.
It pains me that two of my all time favorite baseball players are Yankees (Mariano and Judge). Fortunately, there are a lot more Yankees that I despise, so the universe remains in balance and I can live with myself.
0 for 7 with a walk over the last two days will certainly knock him off that pace. They replace 3/6, 2B, HR, 3 BB in the 50 game span, and he's "down" to .384/.486/.904/1.390.
Judge with a poor series, 2/13 with a walk and no XBH. 0.154/0.214/0.154/0.368, brings his 50 game rates down to .369/.475/.838/1.313. His season OPS hit a high of 1.158 on 7/2, and has dropped to 1.105 over 5 games. In the 50 game span, he's now replacing games during his hot streak, so it'll be pretty difficult for him to top that 1.460 stretch.
My Yankee friend (listen... the guy isn't too bright) was texting me the whole series and came down pretty hard on Judge as an "empty player like ARod!!!!" (quoting), that "when it matters the guy always comes up half his size". I can't say I wasn't enjoying it and he claimed he'd be happy to trade us Duran for Judge any day (Duran didn't exactly play well this series). Just comical but I wonder if this is shared by a lot of MFY "fans"
Every team has them. Just look at some of the people commenting on Tatum during this year's playoffs.
With Tatum though, almost all Celtics fans praised him for doing everything else (if not scoring) this post season very well. And, anyone that trashes a player for not hitting in one or two or even three series isn’t very much with it. Ted Williams once went 0 for 18.
Shoot, just to stir the pot you should point out that ARod at least won a World Series.
Seriously, though, if I was going to ever make an empty stats joke it would be about Stanton, not Judge. Yankees fans have lost their minds if they think Judge is the problem.
To be fair (no, it's not actually fair, but whatever), Judge does have meaningfully negative Clutch scores (-7.07 career, -1.90 this year, -1.78 2023, -1.43 2022), which has indicated he has performed better in lower leverage situations than in higher leverage ones. At the same time, out of 160 players with 500+ high leverage PAs between 2016-2024, he's still got the 8th highest OPS, batting .255/.393/.534/.927, which is pretty fantastic! Just not as good as his career .284/.399/.595/.994.
https://stathead.com/tiny/iWdEi
Over this same timeframe, Using B-R's Clutch, he's only at -6.0 for his career. This is tied for 5th worst - but of course you have to hit pretty great to have the chance to underperform by that much! See the leaders:
- Semien -8.5
- Bryan -7.5
- Realmuto -7.1
- Trout -6.9
- Judge -6.0
- Goldschmidt -6.0
- Martin Maldanado (!) -6.0
- Gallo -6.0
On the flip side, here are the leaders in positive Clutch:
- Frazier 5.7
- Edman 4.5
- McMahon 4.4
- Polanco 4.4
- Descalso 3.9
- Bohm 3.8
- Laureano 3.8
- Merrifield 3.6
- Melky Cabrera 3.5
Edit: Adding one more leaderboard, Most negative career Clutch ever - 82 players match or exceed Judge's -6.0:
- Sosa -17.3
- Frank Robinson -15.6
- Thome -13.6
- Parrish -12.7
- ARod -10.9
- Schmidt -10.9
- Beltre -10.6
- Semien -10.3
- Dye -10.2
- Hidalgo -10.1
And that list, but only for Yankees:
- Ruth -8.4
- Judge -6.0
- Gary Sanchez -5.4
- Cano -5.2
- ARod -4.9
- Hank Bauer -4.3
- Joe Gordon -4.0
Just because I feel like continuing down this tangent - leaders all time in WPA are the people you'd expect https://stathead.com/tiny/gwZIS
- Bonds 127.7
- Ruth 122.7
- Ted 104.6
- Mays 102.6
- Aaron 99.7
- Mantle 94.5
- Gehrig 90.2
- Musial 86.3
- Ott 82.2
- Hornsby 78.7
Among active players, Judge is 11th in WPA - here's the top 11 in WPA, with their PA listed https://stathead.com/tiny/UgKy3
- Votto 51.6 8,746
- Trout 50.7 6,647
- Freeman 43.5 8,504
- Goldschmidt 42.6 6,878
- Harper 40.3 6,794
- Mookie 31.3 6,088
- Cutch 31.2 8,974
- Rizzo 30.8 7,252
- Yelich 27.7 6,357
- Stanton 26.9 6,718
- Judge 26.2 4,023
But the overall point is, even if Judge is vaguely "unclutch," he's still monstrously productive even in high leverage.
Career ops of 1.000 right now. Incredible.
Compare his 2022 season to this one.
2022 full: 696 PA, 61 hr, 131 rbi, .311/.425/.686/1.111, 210 ops+, 10.5 bWAR
2024 pace: 708 PA, 59 hr, 149 rbi, .315/.446/.696/1.142, 215 ops+, 11.1 bWAR
The guy is just incredible.
Compare his 2022 season to this one.
2022 full: 696 PA, 61 hr, 131 rbi, .311/.425/.686/1.111, 210 ops+, 10.5 bWAR
2024 pace: 708 PA, 59 hr, 149 rbi, .315/.446/.696/1.142, 215 ops+, 11.1 bWAR
The guy is just incredible.
Aaron Judge is going to be on Paw Patrol:
View: https://twitter.com/TalkinYanks/status/1819397388332908956
View: https://twitter.com/TalkinYanks/status/1819397388332908956
Time for the children of Boston to boo Paw Patrol for the first time.
This is Judge’s 9th year in the bigs, counting partial years. The HOF requires ten to get in. I’m not sure how they handle partial years and clarification is appreciated there.
Let’s say Judge finishes this year with 55 HR and hits 40 HR in 2025 and then is forced to retire before 2026 due to some degenerative condition. Is he a HOFer? I’d say yes. To me, peak matters the most as long as the guy has some longevity, even though he’d have “only” ~350 HRs. Dude is historically good as others have pointed out.
This is Judge’s 9th year in the bigs, counting partial years. The HOF requires ten to get in. I’m not sure how they handle partial years and clarification is appreciated there.
Let’s say Judge finishes this year with 55 HR and hits 40 HR in 2025 and then is forced to retire before 2026 due to some degenerative condition. Is he a HOFer? I’d say yes. To me, peak matters the most as long as the guy has some longevity, even though he’d have “only” ~350 HRs. Dude is historically good as others have pointed out.
He'll get in easy assuming he doesn't randomly decide to retire this winter. Even if the rates drop off he's got the likeable X-factor. The Yankees seem to be DH'ing him around a third of the time now which feels smart.
I think partial seasons are fine:
"Player must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons"
https://bbwaa.com/hof-elec-req/
Edit: Also, he's in easy under your scenario. His top 7 seasons of bWAR is already 10th among RFers, and it'll be increased by all the WAR he accumulates the rest of this year and next year in your scenario, winding up somewhere similar to Clemente & Ott in terms of Peak, around 5th best RF of all time.
I think the fastest to 300 homers is a little silly because it’s largely because he didn’t make the majors until later than most other major HR hitters. However, he’s still looking at the 9th or so most homers from ages 25-32, which is incredibly impressive!
https://stathead.com/tiny/rQn94
1) Sosa 380
2) Ruth 367
3) ARod 364
4) Foxx 326
4) Thome 326
6) Belle 322
7) Pujols 315
8) Killebrew 313
9) ON PACE FOR Judge 311
9) Manny 307
10) Aaron 302
11) Delgado 299
12) Howard 298
13) Griffey 296
13) Judge 296
https://stathead.com/tiny/rQn94
1) Sosa 380
2) Ruth 367
3) ARod 364
4) Foxx 326
4) Thome 326
6) Belle 322
7) Pujols 315
8) Killebrew 313
9) ON PACE FOR Judge 311
9) Manny 307
10) Aaron 302
11) Delgado 299
12) Howard 298
13) Griffey 296
13) Judge 296
Why does it matter how old you are when you hit the majors?
Also, it suddenly dawned on me tonight that when I see him in a month in Seattle he could be going for 60.
Also, it suddenly dawned on me tonight that when I see him in a month in Seattle he could be going for 60.
Because 25 year olds are better than 21 year olds. Sosa wasn’t the fastest to 300 HR because he spent his 20-23 seasons as a below average player in the majors. That’s not real impressive, but it’s a hell of a lot more useful than being a good minor leaguer.
Heh, pretty sure I had Sammy Sosa on my Rotisserie team as a 20 or a 21 year old, he was indeed not good.
I mostly stopped bumping this thread but I did update this one for myself the other day:
Career OPS+ since 1939:
Ted Williams 198
Barry Bonds 182
Mike Trout 173
Aaron Judge 171 (up from 167 when I checked earlier this season)
Mark McGwire 163
Juan Soto 161 (up from 159 in the earlier list)
Stan Musial 159
I mostly stopped bumping this thread but I did update this one for myself the other day:
Career OPS+ since 1939:
Ted Williams 198
Barry Bonds 182
Mike Trout 173
Aaron Judge 171 (up from 167 when I checked earlier this season)
Mark McGwire 163
Juan Soto 161 (up from 159 in the earlier list)
Stan Musial 159
I don't think we need to argue standard aging curves or the possibility that Judge's slower road to MLB has kept some wear and tear off him that other 32 year olds have, but I do want to point out that as of now, he seems to still be getting better. If NY ever consistently puts dangerous hitters in the 2-3 spots behind him, oh I would like to see that.
Ages 25-32, minimum 502 PA
https://stathead.com/tiny/FZgGE
Gibson (828 PA) 229
Soto 192 (this is just 2024)
Ted 190
Mantle 186
Bonds 181
Trout 176
Judge 174
He’s an absolute marvel, will be in the hall, all the superlatives. All fun facts lie, and many many of the Judge fun facts are because he doesn’t have younger worse years dragging his numbers down, and doesn’t YET have older worse numbers dragging his numbers down.
Those are the career ones, not the single season ones. There are an endless list of those too, here is one from tonight:
View: https://twitter.com/CodifyBaseball/status/1824490054754111854
Not sure which WAR ESPN uses, but right now they have Judge at 8.4.
Elly De La Cruz and Rafael Devers are 13th and 14th in all of MLB, they have 8.7 combined.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/player/_/table/batting/sort/WARBR/dir/desc
Elly De La Cruz and Rafael Devers are 13th and 14th in all of MLB, they have 8.7 combined.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/player/_/table/batting/sort/WARBR/dir/desc
Judge's 2024 is currently tied at 29th for single season OPS+ (223). Most of the seasons ahead of him belong to the likes of Ruth/Williams/Bonds/Gibson/Charleston.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_plus_season.shtml
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_plus_season.shtml
Is Judge the most valuable player in the game right now?
Shohei when pitching beats him, but right now he’s not pitching.
It’s absolutely insane how impactful he is.
my stupid thing under my name is slowly manifesting.
Shohei when pitching beats him, but right now he’s not pitching.
It’s absolutely insane how impactful he is.
my stupid thing under my name is slowly manifesting.
Does being a team captain factor into MVP voting? Judge has welcomed Soto, which was easy, and supported many struggling teammates this season.
As someone who essentially majored in college in team captaining, I have watched this part of his development closely, and it is remarkable. It's easy to get so focused on captaining that it impacts your own game, but clearly that hasn't happened to Judge. Another good example is Chisholm, he clearly took him under his wing immediately and was constantly talking to him in the dugout, trying to make sure he fit in well. Also he does something that almost no athlete does anymore, he answers every question in press interviews thoughtfully and without meaningless cliches. The question is asked, he takes a beat if he needs, and he gives a thoughtful and often insightful answer.
Easily my favorite athlete of all time, hope we get many more years of peak Judge.
As I recall, that was more of a rejoinder response than my actual hope, but I don’t think anyone genuinely thought he’d turn into what he has.
Yeah, not a criticism. I clicked at the front of the thread by accident and it was fun to read the progression.
Wow, this guy is tall to wow, call him up to wow, he’s awesome.
Back to back with Soto in the first tonight off of Boyd. Judge was oppo, Soto's was probably a home run in Yankee Stadium and that's it.
His 17th HR in the first inning this year, one away from the alltime MLB record for a season.
View: https://twitter.com/SlangsOnSports/status/1826039555486789807
Almost every night he creates history, please stay healthy.
View: https://twitter.com/SlangsOnSports/status/1826039555486789807
Almost every night he creates history, please stay healthy.
Posnaski had a blurb about how good Judge has been this year, comparing his stats to the numbers he put up in 2022:
Yankees lineup using FanGraphs Offensive Runs Above Average (Austin Wells wasn't included on the list):
- Judge’s batting average is 20 points higher.
- Judge’s on-base percentage is 38 points higher.
- Judge’s slugging percentage is 17 points higher.
- Judge’s OPS+ is 11 points higher.
Yankees lineup using FanGraphs Offensive Runs Above Average (Austin Wells wasn't included on the list):
- Gleyber Torres, minus-10.3 runs
- Juan Soto, 54.9 runs
- Aaron Judge, 76.3 runs
- Giancarlo Stanton, 2.2 runs
- Alex Verdugo, minus-1.6 runs
- Jose Trevino, minus-0.6 runs
- Anthony Volpe, minus-0.8 runs
- DJ LeMahieu, minus-15 runs
- Oswaldo Peraza, 0.8 runs (seven plate appearances)
Completely agree with this, but if they put out a lineup with some combo of Dominguez, Chisholm, Wells and Stanton hitting 1, 4, 5 and 6, then I think that becomes much harder (only Stanton is on the above list of those 4). The sooner they cut bait on all their dead veteran weight, the better for everyone.