Only God Can Judge Judge

Jace II

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I'm actually surprised the prior record was only 24. Given that the league leader each season typically has a 15% barrel/PA rate, and if you play every game in a month you'll typically get ~120 plate appearances, the expected # of barrels for the 15% barrel king in a chock full month of play would be ~18.

24 doesn't seem like a crazy outlier in that context, considering players are always going to have variance across months
 

jon abbey

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Statcast is since 2015, so this is only month #56 or so.

But the distribution is interesting. Like you said last week about that two game stretch of his when he barreled like seven in a row in between walks, no one ever does that for two games. Evidently no one has done it for a few weeks like this either, in the last nine years anyway.
 

Jace II

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Yup, both of those were clear barrels today, xBA of .850 and .930 on those, so 27 is the number
 

jon abbey

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Judge in 2024:

First 27 games: .178/.317/.356 (.674 OPS in 123 PAs)
Next 25 games: .393/.528/.917 (1.445 OPS in 109 PAs)

Odd way to get to a 1.026 OPS overall, but whatever works.
 

Jace II

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This is obviously more health-dependent than anything else, but Judge is currently at a 55 HR pace on June 1. If he were to end up with 50 or more HRs, which if healthy is highly possible, he'd be one of only 5 players to have three or more seasons of 50+ HR, the other 4 being:

Babe Ruth
Mark McGuire
Sammy Sosa
Alex Rodriguez

All time greatness and steroids mixed together, but hey, it's certainly an exclusive club. He's already in the slightly larger inner circle of only 10 guys with 2+ 50 HR seasons.
 

tims4wins

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This is obviously more health-dependent than anything else, but Judge is currently at a 55 HR pace on June 1. If he were to end up with 50 or more HRs, which if healthy is highly possible, he'd be one of only 5 players to have three or more seasons of 50+ HR, the other 4 being:

Babe Ruth
Mark McGuire
Sammy Sosa
Alex Rodriguez

All time greatness and steroids mixed together, but hey, it's certainly an exclusive club. He's already in the slightly larger inner circle of only 10 guys with 2+ 50 HR seasons.
Fun fact, Bonds only did it once
 

Jace II

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Leading the league in fWAR now with 4.0, just 0.1 ahead of #2, Juan Soto. So I guess they've added 8 wins to date, sounds about right.
 

jon abbey

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Judge won AL Player of the Month today, no surprise.

MLB Most Player of the Month Awards

13 Barry Bonds
10 Alex Rodriguez
8 Frank Thomas
7 Aaron Judge (just won again for May 2024)
7 Albert Belle
7 Albert Pujols

(NL Since 1958; AL Since 1974)
 

jon abbey

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With Judge's 2 HR game tonight, he passes Mike Trout as the active leader in OPS (.993 to .991). The only players since 1940 ahead of him currently are:

Ted Williams: 1.115
Barry Bonds: 1.051
Manny Ramirez: .996
 

jon abbey

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Same lookup as above, ages 24-32, 20 players are ahead of Judge, including Ruth, Foxx, and Trout:

https://stathead.com/tiny/Ueo7Q
Thanks. FWIW, when I do these, I ignore everything before Jackie Robinson usually, that's why I said 1940 above (I included Ted Williams as he overlaps).

I did an OPS+ one last night too that I didn't post yet, pretty interesting too. Manny drops down a bunch, Judge is 4th and Soto is tied for 6th.

OPS+ since 1940:

Ted Williams 191
Barry Bonds 182
Mike Trout 173
Aaron Judge 168
Mark McGwire 163
Stan Musial 159
Juan Soto 159
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Thanks. FWIW, when I do these, I ignore everything before Jackie Robinson usually, that's why I said 1940 above (I included Ted Williams as he overlaps).

I did an OPS+ one last night too that I didn't post yet, pretty interesting too. Manny drops down a bunch, Judge is 4th and Soto is tied for 6th.

OPS+ since 1940:

Ted Williams 191
Barry Bonds 182
Mike Trout 173
Aaron Judge 168
Mark McGwire 163
Stan Musial 159
Juan Soto 159
Then it’s only 10 guys with higher OPS from age 24-32. Pretty sterling company, of course.

edit: and only 6 guys with higher OPS+, since 1940, ages 24-32.
https://stathead.com/tiny/c6Fhh
 

jon abbey

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Then it’s only 10 guys with higher OPS from age 24-32. Pretty sterling company, of course.

edit: and only 6 guys with higher OPS+, since 1940, ages 24-32.
https://stathead.com/tiny/c6Fhh
Crazy lists, all of them!

But wouldn't it make more sense to search from the start of their careers through age 32 as opposed to 24-32? Starting it at 32 leaves out the first 5 years of Mantle's career, for instance.
 

simplicio

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I think bodies being what they are, purely age-based comparisons are about as fair as you can get (which is not very, of course).
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Crazy lists, all of them!

But wouldn't it make more sense to search from the start of their careers through age 32 as opposed to 24-32? Starting it at 32 leaves out the first 5 years of Mantle's career, for instance.
I think bodies being what they are, purely age-based comparisons are about as fair as you can get (which is not very, of course).
Well, Trout is the same age as Judge but looks better when comparing just 24-32 because Trout was in the majors putting up worse numbers before he was 24.
 

jon abbey

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“Not only has Judge hit 21 home runs in his past 41 games, but he has done so off some of the best arms in the game. During this stretch he has taken Yu Darvish, Luis Castillo, Tarik Skubal, Pablo López, Dylan Cease, Logan Webb and Bryce Miller deep.

Judge is just the third player in Major League history to hit 30 extra-base hits in a 30-game span, joining Joe DiMaggio (1937) and Chick Hafey (‘28).”
 

Jace II

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Imagine if he debuted before age 24 and didn’t miss 200+ games because of Covid/fluke injuries.

Might be on pace for 600 homeruns.
Were his injuries actually fluky though prior to last season's bad luck? I recall them more being "big muscle swing hard guy strains muscle / joint" stuff that he and Stanton would trade off with for years.

And I think his late debut age-wise was probably more about him figuring out over the course of college / MiLB how to coordinate his enormous frame to play a game with a tiny ball, not sure that could have been avoided.

He's definitely a guy that's going to end up with several thousand less plate appearances than many HoF players that he's just as good a hitter as.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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“Not only has Judge hit 21 home runs in his past 41 games, but he has done so off some of the best arms in the game. During this stretch he has taken Yu Darvish, Luis Castillo, Tarik Skubal, Pablo López, Dylan Cease, Logan Webb and Bryce Miller deep.

Judge is just the third player in Major League history to hit 30 extra-base hits in a 30-game span, joining Joe DiMaggio (1937) and Chick Hafey (‘28).”
I think that might be 30 team games, or some other caveat? Because I found a few more on stathead:
  1. 2010 CarGo (2 overlapping spans)
  2. 2000-01 Hidalgo (4 overlapping spans)
  3. 1995 Albert Bell (3 overlapping spans)
  4. 1969 Reggie Jackson
  5. 1937 DiMaggio (9 overlapping spans)
  6. 1933 Foxx
  7. 1928 Hafey (10 overlapping spans)
Edit: Jackson didn't take a day off in that span, he had 30 XBH (20 HR, 9 2B, 1 3B) over 30 games from 5/30/69-7/2/69. https://stathead.com/tiny/bRE3C https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/OAK/1969-schedule-scores.shtml
 

SirPsychoSquints

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From the same article:

But his multihit showing was his 10th straight, becoming only the second Yankee since 2015 (DJ LeMahieu, ‘19) to have two or more hits in 10 straight games.
LeMahieu never did that!
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=lemahdj01&t=b&year=2019

And neither did Judge! He had zero hits on June 6.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=judgeaa01&t=b&year=2024

In fact, only 3 players have done this in the entire majors since 1995, Gurriel (11 games, 2018), Bernie Williams (2002), and Knoblauch (1996).
https://stathead.com/tiny/kMlAy

Was this article written by ChatGPT?
 

jon abbey

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From the same article:



LeMahieu never did that!
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=lemahdj01&t=b&year=2019

And neither did Judge! He had zero hits on June 6.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=judgeaa01&t=b&year=2024

In fact, only 3 players have done this in the entire majors since 1995, Gurriel (11 games, 2018), Bernie Williams (2002), and Knoblauch (1996).
https://stathead.com/tiny/kMlAy

Was this article written by ChatGPT?
My research has found your Twitter account. :)