Only God Can Judge Judge
- Thread starter jon abbey
- Start date
I'm actually surprised the prior record was only 24. Given that the league leader each season typically has a 15% barrel/PA rate, and if you play every game in a month you'll typically get ~120 plate appearances, the expected # of barrels for the 15% barrel king in a chock full month of play would be ~18.
24 doesn't seem like a crazy outlier in that context, considering players are always going to have variance across months
24 doesn't seem like a crazy outlier in that context, considering players are always going to have variance across months
Statcast is since 2015, so this is only month #56 or so.
But the distribution is interesting. Like you said last week about that two game stretch of his when he barreled like seven in a row in between walks, no one ever does that for two games. Evidently no one has done it for a few weeks like this either, in the last nine years anyway.
But the distribution is interesting. Like you said last week about that two game stretch of his when he barreled like seven in a row in between walks, no one ever does that for two games. Evidently no one has done it for a few weeks like this either, in the last nine years anyway.
This is obviously more health-dependent than anything else, but Judge is currently at a 55 HR pace on June 1. If he were to end up with 50 or more HRs, which if healthy is highly possible, he'd be one of only 5 players to have three or more seasons of 50+ HR, the other 4 being:
Babe Ruth
Mark McGuire
Sammy Sosa
Alex Rodriguez
All time greatness and steroids mixed together, but hey, it's certainly an exclusive club. He's already in the slightly larger inner circle of only 10 guys with 2+ 50 HR seasons.
Babe Ruth
Mark McGuire
Sammy Sosa
Alex Rodriguez
All time greatness and steroids mixed together, but hey, it's certainly an exclusive club. He's already in the slightly larger inner circle of only 10 guys with 2+ 50 HR seasons.
Another fun fact, Eddie Murray had 504 career homers and his highest single season total was 33.
Judge won AL Player of the Month today, no surprise.
MLB Most Player of the Month Awards
13 Barry Bonds
10 Alex Rodriguez
8 Frank Thomas
7 Aaron Judge (just won again for May 2024)
7 Albert Belle
7 Albert Pujols
(NL Since 1958; AL Since 1974)
MLB Most Player of the Month Awards
13 Barry Bonds
10 Alex Rodriguez
8 Frank Thomas
7 Aaron Judge (just won again for May 2024)
7 Albert Belle
7 Albert Pujols
(NL Since 1958; AL Since 1974)
Ruth does come out ahead (3.1313) if you only include Judge’s ages (24-32) - but no one else!
https://stathead.com/tiny/XvvOM
Same lookup as above, ages 24-32, 20 players are ahead of Judge, including Ruth, Foxx, and Trout:
https://stathead.com/tiny/Ueo7Q
Thanks. FWIW, when I do these, I ignore everything before Jackie Robinson usually, that's why I said 1940 above (I included Ted Williams as he overlaps).
I did an OPS+ one last night too that I didn't post yet, pretty interesting too. Manny drops down a bunch, Judge is 4th and Soto is tied for 6th.
OPS+ since 1940:
Ted Williams 191
Barry Bonds 182
Mike Trout 173
Aaron Judge 168
Mark McGwire 163
Stan Musial 159
Juan Soto 159
Then it’s only 10 guys with higher OPS from age 24-32. Pretty sterling company, of course.
edit: and only 6 guys with higher OPS+, since 1940, ages 24-32.
https://stathead.com/tiny/c6Fhh
Crazy lists, all of them!
But wouldn't it make more sense to search from the start of their careers through age 32 as opposed to 24-32? Starting it at 32 leaves out the first 5 years of Mantle's career, for instance.
Well, Trout is the same age as Judge but looks better when comparing just 24-32 because Trout was in the majors putting up worse numbers before he was 24.
“Not only has Judge hit 21 home runs in his past 41 games, but he has done so off some of the best arms in the game. During this stretch he has taken Yu Darvish, Luis Castillo, Tarik Skubal, Pablo López, Dylan Cease, Logan Webb and Bryce Miller deep.
Judge is just the third player in Major League history to hit 30 extra-base hits in a 30-game span, joining Joe DiMaggio (1937) and Chick Hafey (‘28).”
Judge is just the third player in Major League history to hit 30 extra-base hits in a 30-game span, joining Joe DiMaggio (1937) and Chick Hafey (‘28).”
Imagine if he debuted before age 24 and didn’t miss 200+ games because of Covid/fluke injuries.
Might be on pace for 600 homeruns.
Might be on pace for 600 homeruns.
Were his injuries actually fluky though prior to last season's bad luck? I recall them more being "big muscle swing hard guy strains muscle / joint" stuff that he and Stanton would trade off with for years.
And I think his late debut age-wise was probably more about him figuring out over the course of college / MiLB how to coordinate his enormous frame to play a game with a tiny ball, not sure that could have been avoided.
He's definitely a guy that's going to end up with several thousand less plate appearances than many HoF players that he's just as good a hitter as.
I think that might be 30 team games, or some other caveat? Because I found a few more on stathead:
- 2010 CarGo (2 overlapping spans)
- 2000-01 Hidalgo (4 overlapping spans)
- 1995 Albert Bell (3 overlapping spans)
- 1969 Reggie Jackson
- 1937 DiMaggio (9 overlapping spans)
- 1933 Foxx
- 1928 Hafey (10 overlapping spans)
I copied it from here:
https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/aaron-judge-giancarlo-stanton-homer-as-yankees-win
https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/aaron-judge-giancarlo-stanton-homer-as-yankees-win
From the same article:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=lemahdj01&t=b&year=2019
And neither did Judge! He had zero hits on June 6.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=judgeaa01&t=b&year=2024
In fact, only 3 players have done this in the entire majors since 1995, Gurriel (11 games, 2018), Bernie Williams (2002), and Knoblauch (1996).
https://stathead.com/tiny/kMlAy
Was this article written by ChatGPT?
LeMahieu never did that!
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=lemahdj01&t=b&year=2019
And neither did Judge! He had zero hits on June 6.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=judgeaa01&t=b&year=2024
In fact, only 3 players have done this in the entire majors since 1995, Gurriel (11 games, 2018), Bernie Williams (2002), and Knoblauch (1996).
https://stathead.com/tiny/kMlAy
Was this article written by ChatGPT?
Yeah, direct quote. Something is wrong on the internet!My research has found your Twitter account.
I hope you don't think my nitpicking fun facts is a criticism of you or Judge. Judge's absurd performance gives many opportunities for fun facts, and all fun facts lie (per Sam Miller, IIRC). Like Sam, I enjoy picking them apart and figuring out how specifically someone had to craft them. I also think it's amusing that sometimes, when we pick apart a Judge fun fact, it winds up showing that he's been even better in the past sometimes.
Using Stathead, the closest 50 game spans I could find:
Bagwell, 6/8/94 - 8/5/94, .414/.498/.919/1.417
Frank Thomas, 5/7/94 - 7/2/94, .419/.543/.860/1.403 (could argue his OBP advantage over Judge is better?)
And by lefties:
Ted 7/12/57 - 9/21/57, .441/.574/.829/1.403
Ted 8/11/41 - 4/18/42, .408/.592/.822/1.414
Ted 7/20/41 - 9/7/41, .442/.618/.872/1.490
Gehrig 6/8/36 - 7/31/36, .408/.538/.897/1.435
Ruth 6/15/20 - 8/3/20, .455/.606/1.006/1.613
Many other Ruth stretches across 1920 also beat Judge's mark.
I'm still trying to get Stathead to behave on the years 1995-2008, 1965-1980, and 1920-1935. But the "Righty" part of the fun fact is clearly aimed at Ted & Ruth (and probably Gehrig during 1920-35).
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No worries, I have a kind of dream that this thread will be a good place for historians to research Judge's earlier years, but there have been plenty of diversions.
And Bonds, who had a 1.368 OPS for the entire four year period from 2001-4 (!!!!).
Correct. I got some more:
Bonds 2004 topped out from 7/28/04 - 9/26/04, .393/.604/.963/1.567. He was above Judge's mark essentially the entire season.
Bonds 2003 topped out from 7/2/03 - 9/16/03, .403/.598/.928/1.526
Bonds 2002 topped out from 7/15/02 - 9/19/02, .429/.620/.886/1.506.
Bonds 2001 topped out from 8/4/01 - 10/7/01, .377/.573/.980/1.553
RIGHTY McGwire's best appears to be 9/17/99 - 5/24/00, .325/.498/.943/1.440 - This is why they included "season" inside the fun fact, because it's 1 OPS point behind McGwire's run across two seasons!
Ruth 1930 topped out from 5/10/30 - 7/2/30, .391/.560/.941/1.501
Ruth 1924 topped out from 6/30/24 - 8/13/24, .466/.570/.927/1.497
Ruth 1927 never gets QUITE over Judge's current OPS (but OBP was better).
Ruth 1923 topped out from 6/30/23 - 8/22/23, .471/.602/.914/1.516
Ruth 1921 topped out from 7/30/21 - 9/18/21, .431/.546/.939/1.485
Righty Hornsby got close, 7/11/24 - 8/28/24, .489/.565/.864/1.429.
Still trying to get Stathead to give me 1965-1976.
So - it's OPS because it's easy, but also because RC/wOBA/OPS+/something like that would let someone else's superior OBP beat Judge. It's in season because McGwire would've beaten him across seasons. It's righty because a bunch of spans by Bonds/Ruth/Williams/Gehrig would've beaten him (some by a lot).
Edit again - and for posterity, the link I'm using different year versions of https://stathead.com/tiny/Kf47F
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I’m kinda curious what Judge’s career numbers would look like if the LF was switched with the RF dimensions at YS.
I finally got all the years covered, and got the perfect reason this fun fact is listed the way it is:
https://stathead.com/tiny/z29Su
Bob Bailey, a RHB, from 5/30/70 - 8/8/70, had the EXACT SAME OPS (rounded) as Judge over this stretch, .415/.507/.932!
Bailey's OBP was .50704, slightly better than Judge's .50691.
His SLG was .93220, slightly better than Judge's .93182
So his OPS was better, 1.4392 v 1.4387!
Of course, Bailey only had 143 PA in his stretch, compared to Judge's 217.
Bailey had PH 24 times of those 50 games. In three others, he started at 1B and was replaced after 3 PA.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiY0ruX9YiHAxU9MUQIHfrxDfMQFnoECBYQAQ&url=https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/bob-bailey/&usg=AOvVaw20BXbvdHgRYgA7gfbeAuYQ&opi=89978449
Yeah that’s not enough PAs, I’m sure it was just ‘all the other guys who’ve done this are lefties’.
View: https://twitter.com/slangsonsports/status/1807867598895493562?s=46&t=0GHHaPVUX26Io0V2HIcS0g
View: https://twitter.com/slangsonsports/status/1807867598895493562?s=46&t=0GHHaPVUX26Io0V2HIcS0g
She forgot to exclude McGwire's cross-season stretch
https://stathead.com/tiny/URweN
Edit: 217 PA
Further edit: Bailey is the ONLY person that PA minimum excludes, as far as I can tell.
I hate the fucking Yankees and will always root for them to lose, but I find myself checking their box scores almost daily to see if Judge hit a dinger and god damnit I’m kind of a fan of the guy. Another bomb tonight (32), 3-4 and an OPS of 1.158 now. What a beast.
If I'm doing the math right, he's now at .403/.512/.949/1.460 for his last 50 games? That blows all the righties away, even over small PA samples and cross-seasons. Just Ted/Ruth/Bonds with better stretches.
B-ref doesn't have last night's stats in yet, but right now they show:
Judge: 217 ops+
Soto: 182 ops+
Stanton: 120 ops+
And every other regular is sub-100 ops+. Kind of crazy.
Judge: 217 ops+
Soto: 182 ops+
Stanton: 120 ops+
And every other regular is sub-100 ops+. Kind of crazy.
Again, if I'm doing the math right, last night:
Judge .750/.750/1.500/2.250
All other Yankees .097/.152/.129/.281