Offseason rumors

[johnnywayback]

The path to the next Red Sox championship goes like this:

-- Devers still in his prime and Casas entering his.
-- Someone from the Duran/Rafaela/Abreu group becoming an impact starter in the outfield.
-- Story at 2B and Yoshida at DH still making meaningful contributions.
-- Minimum salary, above average players at C, SS, and CF, allowing the team to spend real money on other positions, presumably a middle of the order right-handed hitter and/or a frontline starting pitcher or two.
-- A more reliable pipeline of upper-minors pitching depth, the most valuable commodity in the game.

This is not going to happen in 2024. And even if you believe it might happen in 2025 (asking a lot, in my opinion), how is locking in Dylan Cease as your ace for that one year worth knocking out a major pillar of the rebuilding plan by trading six years of Mayer, let alone adding anything else to a deal?

The smarter play, at this point, would be to wait until next offseason or the one after that and trade someone from the pitching pipeline or someone who emerges from the Bleis/Cespedes/Castro youngster group to get THAT year's Dylan Cease. In other words, make the big trade as the last piece to the rebuild, not the first.

Of course, Montgomery is a different story, since there's no reason to believe that spending money on him in 2024 would weaken the team in 2025 and beyond -- and if you think you want him as one of the front-line starters on the 2026 team, now's the time to get him.

 

[chrisfont9]

Maybe Mayer could be the centerpiece, but you'd probably have to add someone(s) pretty darn good with him. Technically "lesser" prospects, yes, but really good ones.

Closest comp to a Cease deal I can find where the selling team "only" got hitting was the Castillo deal from Cin to Seattle.

N Marte and Mayer are roughly similar. You'd need to add an Edwin Arroyo piece (probably Yorke, maybe Bleis if they'd prefer the upside / risk). Along with someone viewed similarly to Stoudt at the time (maybe Gonzalez; though Stoudt had been struggling for Seattle at that time - but Mayer was injured so might be seen as a bit below where Marte was.

But it'd probably have to look like lets say Mayer, Bleis and Gonzalez. Which I'd move for Cease in one second, but it would probably take offering that to make ChW even seriously consider it.

The prospect fanboy part of me will be very relieved when this doesn't happen, but yeah, that would make the Sox a better team.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Some rough math - the odds of a top 21 position player exceeding 3 War 3 years later is about 65%, and 4 War about 30%. If the White Sox value Cease at his '22 performance (6.4) you would need both Teal and Mayer to get Cease by that logic.
I suspect that is why a trade hasn't made - they won't take less.

 

[chrisfont9]

The issue I have with the Sox is they have needed bankable starters since they let Erod go after 2021 and Eovaldi go after 2022. There are only three ways of getting starters, develop them, trade for them, or sign free-agent starters. Perhaps they have developed a good one in Bello and a serviceable one in Crawford. I am hoping Giolito and Pivetta have good years. I like that Breslow has revamped the pitching development staff and has been turning over every rock for pitchers with potential. This team needed pitching starting pitching desperately last year and they did nothing about it. They desperately need it right now. If they think they are getting a decent year of starting pitching out of one of Winckowski, Houck, or Whitlock, they are just as deluded as the Pats are about their wide receivers the last few years.

Winckowski is 25, his current development path is a lot like that of a serviceable starter. The other two are closer to how you view them, based on their age, though Houck has had his flashes of production, when not getting hit in the face. I wouldn't call the Sox deluded because starting pitching development is a lot harder to predict than NFL receivers, but if we don't see something very soon, then it's off to the bullpen for good.

 

[chrisfont9]

Some rough math - the odds of a top 21 position player exceeding 3 War 3 years later is about 65%, and 4 War about 30%. If the White Sox value Cease at his '22 performance (6.4) you would need both Teal and Mayer to get Cease by that logic.
I suspect that is why a trade hasn't made - they won't take less.

OK but we are talking about 2 years of Cease, or maybe 1.5 by the time a deal happens, vs six years of the other guys. The only thing in Breslow's favor is that ticking clock on Chicago, knowing he's gone if they don't trade him, and that he can't contribute to a winner before then. For Chicago, it's not about Cease's value to them, it's about getting the highest bid.

 

[RS2004foreever]

OK but we are talking about 2 years of Cease, or maybe 1.5 by the time a deal happens, vs six years of the other guys. The only thing in Breslow's favor is that ticking clock on Chicago, knowing he's gone if they don't trade him, and that he can't contribute to a winner before then. For Chicago, it's not about Cease's value to them, it's about getting the highest bid.

So you get 12 War. There is about a 50-50 shot a top 21 prospect gives you 3 War for 6 years of control (18 total War). So you need 2 top 21 prospects to swing the deal since you assume one will miss. Teal isn't a top 21 prospect but maybe you sell him as one. The hit rate from '19 to '21 once you go from top 21 to 22-40 isn't as good (I looked at the fangraphs rankings).

 

[manny]

So you get 12 War. There is about a 50-50 shot a top 21 prospect gives you 3 War for 6 years of control (18 total War). So you need 2 top 21 prospects to swing the deal since you assume one will miss. Teal isn't a top 21 prospect but maybe you sell him as one. The hit rate from '19 to '21 once you go from top 21 to 22-40 isn't as good (I looked at the fangraphs rankings).

Cease has had one season over 3 bWAR, one season with an ERA below 3.9, and two seasons with a WHIP below 1.4. His FIP numbers are better so maybe some of it is Chicago's defense. But, to me as of now, 2022 looks like an outlier for Cease. If you are trading Mayer/Teel ++, that would have to be a pretty big bet that Cease will be the 2022 pitcher going forward, and not any other season. He doesn't do it for me in terms of making a big prospect trade for him.

 

[Max Power]

It's also possible that Cease isn't that good and simply had a career year in 2022. If I were the White Sox, I'd hold him to see if he pitches like that again. There's not much risk since nobody is meeting your ask now and a chance for a much higher reward.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

The issue I have with the Sox is they have needed bankable starters since they let Erod go after 2021 and Eovaldi go after 2022. There are only three ways of getting starters, develop them, trade for them, or sign free-agent starters. Perhaps they have developed a good one in Bello and a serviceable one in Crawford. I am hoping Giolito and Pivetta have good years. I like that Breslow has revamped the pitching development staff and has been turning over every rock for pitchers with potential. This team needed pitching starting pitching desperately last year and they did nothing about it. They desperately need it right now. If they think they are getting a decent year of starting pitching out of one of Winckowski, Houck, or Whitlock, they are just as deluded as the Pats are about their wide receivers the last few years.

They didn't "let go" of either of them. They were free agents who could sign with any team of their choosing. ERod's signing with the Tigers raised eyebrows and was seen by many as an overpay. The Sox made an offer to Eovaldi and he turned it down to sign with Texas for the same money. I'm not sure your criticism of the front office is valid with those two.

 

[chrisfont9]

So you get 12 War. There is about a 50-50 shot a top 21 prospect gives you 3 War for 6 years of control (18 total War). So you need 2 top 21 prospects to swing the deal since you assume one will miss. Teal isn't a top 21 prospect but maybe you sell him as one. The hit rate from '19 to '21 once you go from top 21 to 22-40 isn't as good (I looked at the fangraphs rankings).

Well like I said, it's not about whether the White Sox can get equivalent value for a guy they know is leaving after 2025. It's who will give them the most in return.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Well like I said, it's not about whether the White Sox can get equivalent value for a guy they know is leaving after 2025. It's who will give them the most in return.

Might get more at the deadline.
I understand why Chicago would ask a lot. I would NOT trade either Mayer or Anthony for him. There is a 35% shot Anthony (who are this point hit better in AA at 19 in limited plate appearances than Betts did at 21) or Mayer. The odds are better than not that one of them turns into a better player than anyone on the current Red Sox roster.

 

[chrisfont9]

Might get more at the deadline.
I understand why Chicago would ask a lot. I would NOT trade either Mayer or Anthony for him. There is a 35% shot Anthony (who are this point hit better in AA at 19 in limited plate appearances than Betts did at 21) or Mayer. The odds are better than not that one of them turns into a better player than anyone on the current Red Sox roster.

I get the vibe that Anthony is a hard no for the Sox. You never know, but I agree, I wouldn't trade him. My only comfort with Mayer going is that we have other options now and in the future up the middle. I'm excited to see what Zanatello does this year.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Agreed on Anthony. He's the one that is a hard no for me on anyone excepting someone that you know looking at it the other team would never consider (ie Kirby).

Teel is close, at least because of the position.

Mayer, I think there are enough variables that you'd consider it - in the circumstance that it fixes the Sox biggest problem (starting pitching) for multiple seasons (ie Cease, Luzardo, Gilbert, I'd do it) whereas Bieber, Fried whatever with one year of control (hard pass).

Or put another way - I'm a heck of a lot more confident in Story and Grissom being top half of the order starting caliber middle infielders for the next 4 (or more) seasons than I am Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, Fitts, Gonzalez, Perales, Sandlin being top half of the rotation starters (although I really like the Fitts and Sandlin deals, to be clear).

 

[chrisfont9]

Agreed on Anthony. He's the one that is a hard no for me on anyone excepting someone that you know looking at it the other team would never consider (ie Kirby).

Teel is close, at least because of the position.

Mayer, I think there are enough variables that you'd consider it - in the circumstance that it fixes the Sox biggest problem (starting pitching) for multiple seasons (ie Cease, Luzardo, Gilbert, I'd do it) whereas Bieber, Fried whatever with one year of control (hard pass).

Or put another way - I'm a heck of a lot more confident in Story and Grissom being top half of the order starting caliber middle infielders for the next 4 (or more) seasons than I am Crawford, Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, Fitts, Gonzalez, Perales, Sandlin being top half of the rotation starters (although I really like the Fitts and Sandlin deals, to be clear).

Yep and I think Mayer makes a bigger impression in a trade. Which shouldn't matter but GMs need support and White Sox fans have feelings too.

 

[OCD SS]

While that's true, it's a complete non sequitur in the conversation. There are other ways between now and March 2025 to address the 2025 rotation. And they're not only limited to signing 2025 FAs.

How is it a non-sequitur (and even if it is, that charge in no way invalidates the comment): @bernie carb 33 pointed out that a constant churn of 1 year deals don’t offer any stability in the roster and makes it hard to also build for 2025. Your response brings up 2025 free agents as an alternative to signing Monty and my point is that within the larger stated objectives of Ownership the Sox are going to compete. 2025 free agents don’t help with that goal this season. Sure they might do something else that helps, but that’salmost universally applicable.

I guess you come down on the side of “compete”?

 

[OCD SS]

I agree. It’s why I don’t think people consider Snell an Ace. Two full season as great but not much in between.

If the Sox are going to hold out for an ACE! they will never sign a SP on the FA market.

I think a better immediate course is to build a pretty good but deep staff that they can supplement with an above average offense (since that’s the direction their position player depth lies). To do this they need stabile innings from the rotation.

 

[manny]

Grain of salt and in the context it doesn't sound like he knows much beyond us, but Bowden says in his mailbag for The Athletic re Montgomery: "The Red Sox have plenty of financial flexibility and at this point must be considered the front-runner to land him. However, it’s believed Montgomery would prefer to re-sign with Texas and if he were to accept a shorter-term deal, I think the Rangers are the only team where that could happen and he’d at least consider that type of offer."

 

[Rovin Romine]

How is it a non-sequitur (and even if it is, that charge in no way invalidates the comment): @bernie carb 33 pointed out that a constant churn of 1 year deals don’t offer any stability in the roster and makes it hard to also build for 2025. Your response brings up 2025 free agents as an alternative to signing Monty and my point is that within the larger stated objectives of Ownership the Sox are going to compete. 2025 free agents don’t help with that goal this season. Sure they might do something else that helps, but that’salmost universally applicable.

I guess you come down on the side of “compete”?

I said your comment was true; in fact it was the very first thing I said when I responded to you. So yes, I agree with you that it does not invalidate your comment.

Your dogged determination to disagree with me is getting pretty tiresome.

 

[nighthob]

If the White Sox value Cease at his '22 performance (6.4) you would need both Teal and Mayer to get Cease by that logic

They won't accept Chartreuse or Papayawhip instead?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

If the Sox are going to hold out for an ACE! they will never sign a SP on the FA market.

There was an ace on the open market this year. The Sox were nowhere near him. There’s no reason to believe that they would be near the ace of 2025, 26, etc. Especially if the big teams (NYY, LA, etc.) have him in their sights.

 

[manny]

There was an ace on the open market this year. The Sox were nowhere near him. There’s no reason to believe that they would be near the ace of 2025, 26, etc. Especially if the big teams (NYY, LA, etc.) have him in their sights.

And it's almost certain one of the big teams will always have an ace in their sights. For all the talk about next offseason's FA pitching class, it presumably will look much different (less appealing) after extensions, injuries, and 2024 performance. There may be one or two "aces" actually available next offseason and there will be well more than one or two big teams ready to pounce.

So I do think if the Sox are going to get an ace from outside the organization, it will need to be via trade. Even then, their prospects will need to line up with the trading team's needs (i.e. while they weren't in on him, the Sox didn't really have the pitching prospects to get Soto). And then the package will need to beat every team. I think the Sox are getting close to having a system where they can build a competitive package without destroying the system. Next step is an "ace" actually being available. As I mentioned above, I don't think Cease is that guy. But I think next offseason will be the time for the Sox to pull the trigger on their next Beckett/Sale/etc. trade.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

And it's almost certain one of the big teams will always have an ace in their sights. For all the talk about next offseason's FA pitching class, it presumably will look much different (less appealing) after extensions, injuries, and 2024 performance. There may be one or two "aces" actually available next offseason and there will be well more than one or two big teams ready to pounce.

So I do think if the Sox are going to get an ace from outside the organization, it will need to be via trade. Even then, their prospects will need to line up with the trading team's needs (i.e. while they weren't in on him, the Sox didn't really have the pitching prospects to get Soto). And then the package will need to beat every team. I think the Sox are getting close to having a system where they can build a competitive package without destroying the system. Next step is an "ace" actually being available. As I mentioned above, I don't think Cease is that guy. But I think next offseason will be the time for the Sox to pull the trigger on their next Beckett/Sale/etc. trade.

I know its impossible to contemplate given current state of affairs but there is actually no impediment for the Red Sox to pay a top free agent the most money to convince them to come to Boston other than the desire of those calling the shots at FSG.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Giants in on both Snell and Chapman, and Susan Slusser says its 50-50 if they wind up with one of the players.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Giants in on both Snell and Chapman, and Susan Slusser says its 50-50 if they wind up with one of the players.

Giants and Snell have always made the most sense.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Monty signs with us as soon as Snell’s deal is announced, right?

 

[GB5]

I don’t hate the idea of a contract for Monty that includes an opt out after 1 year. Yes potentially bad for long term planning, but if he is trying to get back out on the market after 1 year you should get a very motivated, focused, energized guy who needs to give his absolute best if he wants more money.

 

[YTF]

I don’t hate the idea of a contract for Monty that includes an opt out after 1 year. Yes potentially bad for long term planning, but if he is trying to get back out on the market after 1 year you should get a very motivated, focused, energized guy who needs to give his absolute best if he wants more money.

In my mind I really don't see any advantage to giving him an opt out after one year. I want the Sox to be competitive as much as anyone here and I think that Montgomery can definitely help to anchor the rotation and in turn help keep what looks to be a good bullpen from getting overused. All pluses, but if the team is truly transitioning isn't part of the draw to signing a guy like Montgomery having him around for '25 and '26 when we're hopeful that the arrival of Mayer, Anthony and Teel are going to round out the young core that seems to be developing? In essence part of the cost of year one is to have him here for years 2,3 and possibly 4. Sure if he and Giolito both pitch great you've got a shot to get into the playoffs and we all know that wild cards teams have had some pretty good World Series success. But again, if he pitches great I want him to stay. Especially when you might put yourself in a position where JM and LG could pitch great and both walk after the end of the season and you're left looking to fill the same holes again next season.

 

[EvilEmpire]

In my mind I really don't see any advantage to giving him an opt out after one year.

If Montgomery outpitches his contract well enough that he‘s confident exercising that first year opt-out, I think whichever team he’s playing for will have a better chance to extend or resign him, given that success.

Absent a big offer from somewhere else, I think Texas will probably do it. They don’t seem to have the financial resources to make a strong offer right now, but if Monty wants to be there, maybe their finances improve enough to allow them to do a little better after next season.

 

[NDame616]

If Montgomery outpitches his contract well enough that he‘s confident exercising that first year opt-out, I think whichever team he’s playing for will have a better chance to extend or resign him, given that success.

Absent a big offer from somewhere else, I think Texas will probably do it. They don’t seem to have the financial resources to make a strong offer right now, but if Monty wants to be there, maybe their finances improve enough to allow them to do a little better after next season.

Sorry I have to disagree. Clearly the Sox, for better or worse, are against giving "older" pitchers long term deals. If Montgomery comes here and out pitches his contract to the point he exercises an opt out, his 2025 FA price will be way higher than his 2024 price....and the Sox (would have )only gave him that knowing it was probably a one-year deal, 2 weeks into spring training

 

[HfxBob]

Monty signs with us as soon as Snell’s deal is announced, right?

It's still hard to say if the Red Sox are even seriously interested in signing Montgomery.

 

[In my lifetime]

From a team perspective, I am on the side that that player opt-outs are almost never beneficial for the team. However, in the RS case with Montgomery that might not be the case. The RS are facing a certain amount of fan dissatisfaction this year. If they were to sign Montgomery, much of this would be quelled. If the Montgomery opted out after 1 year; the RS would have at least kicked the can down the road. The benefit for Montgomery would be that he would protect himself against injury or a significant drop off. The risk for the RS would be that if Montgomery imploded they would be on the hook.

To exaggerate what that contract could look like (the actual dollar figures would of course be different to satisfy both parties):
15 million dollar signing bonus
15 million per year 6 year contract with player opt-out after 1st year and 2nd year, and team opt-out after year 3.
Unless a disaster befalls Montgomery, he is out after year 1. If a short-term setback, then he would also have another opportunity after year 2. The RS downside risk if Montgomery implodes would be 60 million.

I am not advocating for this type if contract, since it is mostly for appearance to the fan base. However, it would be one possible approach if the RS are concerned about the rumbling.

 

[moondog80]

History says that whoever signs Montgomery will either give him something like Boras originally wanted (6 or 7 years guaranteed) or something much shorter with a one-year opt out. Something shorter with no opt-out is not on the table. Of those two options, give me the shorter deal with the opt out 10 times out of 10.

 

[bernie carb 33]

While we're waiting on bigger transactions, Sox signed George Costanza to a minor league deal. haha. Seriously they picked up the other Jason Alexander, previously suffered through some injuries with the Brewers last year before he was outrighted. He tossed 71 2/3 innings over 11 starts and seven relief appearances. He posted a 5.40 earned run average in that time with a subpar 14.3% strikeout rate. Better success as a ground ball inducer.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/red-sox-sign-jason-alexander-to-minor-league-deal.html

 

[8slim]

For those that have wondered if the Bally's RSN situation is what has been keeping the Rangers on the sidelines with Montgomery (and for every other team that has RSN uncertainty), yesterday was a good day for Bally's.

Diamond Sports Group Seems Poised to Emerge From Bankruptcy After 'Really Good Day' in Court (msn.com)

My hunch is that MLB is going to take back the streaming rights of Bally's clubs and launch an in-market DTC package next season. But teams would still get paid for their linear TV network rights. Even with cable collapsing that'll be real money for a few more years.

 

[RS2004foreever]

I would not give Montgomery a 1 year opt-out. As of now this is the '25 Red Sox rotation
Bello
Crawford
Houck (who probably belongs in the bullpen)

If Giolito is good he is gone. Pivetta is a free agent. There is no one on the farm projected to be ready to start in '25.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I would not give Montgomery a 1 year opt-out. As of now this is the '25 Red Sox rotation
Bello
Crawford
Houck (who probably belongs in the bullpen)

If Giolito is good he is gone. Pivetta is a free agent. There is no one on the farm projected to be ready to start in '25.

Couldn't agree more strongly. This series of one year deals is no way for a team with an actual payroll that ostensibly views success as more than "within a handful of games of WC3" to build sustainable contention. Especially when, as you mentioned, the farm system is incredibly lacking in advanced starting pitching prospects of any note.

Giolito's (in essence) one year deal is already one too many as far as I'm concerned (like the player, hate the deal, realize you can't force them to sign a different contract, etc). Actually build something with staying power or don't bother signing anyone and see what the young players have.

 

[chawson]

If Giolito is good he is gone. Pivetta is a free agent. There is no one on the farm projected to be ready to start in '25.

I've posted this before and it's not worth much until it happens, but I don't think this is as much of a foregone conclusion. Giolito's a "comfort guy" and has been outspoken before about not feeling comfortable in different MLB clubhouses, etc., and of course bounced around a ton last year. He's a guy who's receptive to data and analytics and it seems likely he'd feel comfortable sticking around with a team (Bailey, et al.) that works well with him.

Who knows, of course, but he seems to me likelier to re-up here if he has a good year than the average pitcher. He's also got a good friend on the team in 2025 in Hendriks, and could be a factor in a potential courtship of Max Fried.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I would not give Montgomery a 1 year opt-out. As of now this is the '25 Red Sox rotation
Bello
Crawford
Houck (who probably belongs in the bullpen)

If Giolito is good he is gone. Pivetta is a free agent. There is no one on the farm projected to be ready to start in '25.

That can change in a year. There are plenty of examples of guys who didn't project to be a factor making leaps and inserting themselves into conversations fairly quickly. Bello wasn't really highly touted going into 2021 and two years later he was a key part of the rotation. Crawford was projected to have a reliever ceiling as recently as 2022 and he's penciled into the rotation this year (and you've got him penciled in for next).

I'm not saying the best way to go is to wait for the farm, but we can't entirely write it off as a non-factor for 2025 either. That sort of thinking leads to panic moves that could prove regrettable. A lot can change in the next twelve months. The 2025 rotation doesn't have to be entirely solved right now.

 

[moondog80]

I would not give Montgomery a 1 year opt-out. As of now this is the '25 Red Sox rotation
Bello
Crawford
Houck (who probably belongs in the bullpen)

If Giolito is good he is gone. Pivetta is a free agent. There is no one on the farm projected to be ready to start in '25.

What if the choices are "give him a one year opt out" and "he signs somewhere else"?

 

[GB5]

If it is a deal with an opt out after year 1, just do it. Get him in the door and then if you like him, then spend the year selling him on Boston, the RS, hospitals for his wife, the pitching program, coaches, teammates. If he pitches well, he will probably be happy and may attribute it to all things Boston and the RS. Will give you a leg up on extending him.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I don't understand why people want to lump a Giolito opt out with a potential Montgomery opt out.
Giolito is clearly trying to re-establish his value, so if he's good, he'll opt out and/or the Sox will try to offer him a new contract.
Montgomery is trying to capitalize on pretty much the highest value of his career. The likelihood of him actually having a better year and choosing to opt out after one year, heading into his age 32 season seems like a real long shot. I think a one year opt out for him is more window dressing than risk.

 

[chawson]

Giolito's (in essence) one year deal is already one too many as far as I'm concerned (like the player, hate the deal, realize you can't force them to sign a different contract, etc). Actually build something with staying power or don't bother signing anyone and see what the young players have.

I hear you but no one was making a 3- or 4-year pact with Giolito after his collapse last year. His contract seems like it's about buying a year or two of stability in an effort to recuperate him. I'm optimistic that the changes he's making will stick, and that they restructure the contract to keep him around as a #3 starter for another few years.

 

[moondog80]

The other thing is that the Sox would be able to give him the QO if he opts out. Which would both decrease the chances that he does so, and give the club something back if he does.

I'd happily offer it if it makes the deal seem sweeter.

 

[chawson]

I don't understand why people want to lump a Giolito opt out with a potential Montgomery opt out.
Giolito is clearly trying to re-establish his value, so if he's good, he'll opt out and/or the Sox will try to offer him a new contract.
Montgomery is trying to capitalize on pretty much the highest value of his career. The likelihood of him actually having a better year and choosing to opt out after one year, heading into his age 32 season seems like a real long shot. I think a one year opt out for him is more window dressing than risk.

Agreed, a Montgomery opt out makes very little sense to me from the player's standpoint. I suppose it's worth more than not having one, but it's not very valuable to him.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

That can change in a year. There are plenty of examples of guys who didn't project to be a factor making leaps and inserting themselves into conversations fairly quickly. Bello wasn't really highly touted going into 2021 and two years later he was a key part of the rotation. Crawford was projected to have a reliever ceiling as recently as 2022 and he's penciled into the rotation this year (and you've got him penciled in for next).

I'm not saying the best way to go is to wait for the farm, but we can't entirely write it off as a non-factor for 2025 either. That sort of thinking leads to panic moves that could prove regrettable. A lot can change in the next twelve months. The 2025 rotation doesn't have to be entirely solved right now.

I know I’m probably alone here but if Wikelman can drop his BB’s he’s a mid-rotation type with potential to be better. He’s got great stuff. I was saying the same thing about Lester in ‘05 and mostly people wanted to toss him into a trade for Santana. Perales looks more solid of a bet to be in the rotation but is probably 2 years away at best. I can see Wikelman getting up to AAA by June and hopefully doesn’t have the Woo-Sox collapse.
If he doesn’t he could be called up more for relief help than as a spot starter though- as Fitts is likely that guy.

 

[moondog80]

Agreed, a Montgomery opt out makes very little sense to me from the player's standpoint. I suppose it's worth more than not having one, but it's not very valuable to him.

It depends how long the guarantee is. If it's only 3 years and he more or less repeats 2023, I can see him saying "I can get more than two years on the open market, even with a QO attached".

5 year guarantee? Different story.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Agreed, a Montgomery opt out makes very little sense to me from the player's standpoint. I suppose it's worth more than not having one, but it's not very valuable to him.

It all depends on what he’s being offered, isn’t it? If he can get an opt out, I’m sure he will take it- there’s no downside to the player. He’d be smart to ask for a “you can’t offer me a QO” clause, too. It all depends what kind of demand there is for him, though. Can’t get all these things if there aren’t enough teams bidding.

 

[chawson]

It all depends on what he’s being offered, isn’t it? If he can get an opt out, I’m sure he will take it- there’s no downside to the player. He’d be smart to ask for a “you can’t offer me a QO” clause, too. It all depends what kind of demand there is for him, though. Can’t get all these things if there aren’t enough teams bidding.

Has a FA ever negotiated that in their contract before? I vaguely remember something in JDM's contract language for one of the early opt-out years but can't find it right now.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I hear you but no one was making a 3- or 4-year pact with Giolito after his collapse last year. His contract seems like it's about buying a year or two of stability in an effort to recuperate him. I'm optimistic that the changes he's making will stick, and that they restructure the contract to keep him around as a #3 starter for another few years.

Which is why I think the Red Sox may very well have missed an opportunity to do just that. Now, is it possible that Giolito wouldn't have signed something like 4/$100m with the Red Sox. Of course, but I sure as s**t hope they offered it to him - because you could very well be right. We'll never know, naturally.

Anyway, I'm not even really complaining about it too much because I think it was in direct response to knowing they had a deal lined up for Sale (which took place less than 24 hours later), so out goes one pitcher you can move at the deadline, in comes another. So on this one, I get it, to be clear. I just hate the "recipe" of cycles of one year deals. I have no interest at all in adding another (excepting a scenario where you trade Pivetta first, and then sign one to replace him).

What if the choices are "give him a one year opt out" and "he signs somewhere else"?

My stance - let him sign somewhere else and commit to seeing if Crawford, Houck, Whitlock or Winckowski can be dependable starters. Lets not have these same questions again next year (feels like deja vu from going into the 2023 season, admittedly - but that's kind of what you get with a bunch of "are they starters or not" arms).

*My own personal stance is of those you get one dependable 4/5 starter and a bunch of bullpen arms (my bet is that the one starter is either Crawford or Houck, and I'm leaning Crawford of course, but I'm not fully certain of that based off 23 league average-ish starts).

 

[chawson]

Giants in on both Snell and Chapman, and Susan Slusser says its 50-50 if they wind up with one of the players.

If the Giants do sign Chapman, J.D. Davis would be a really good fit here as the RHB we've all been waiting for.