As of now that does not seem true at all. Wheeler, Burnes and Fried are all legit #1s. If Montgomery is your game 1 starter you are not looking great. I am not even sure I would want 5 playoff innings of Montgomery over Pivetta. I am also very pro signing Pivetta to some 3/45ish extension right now.I assume Wheeler stays in Philly plus he will be 34. But still I would unload some money on Fried and Burnes
I mean, I totally agree he'd be great to have in the potential Dalbec role (i.e. bench player who is the back up at 1b/3b) but there is no way he'd be interested in that and it's probably a waste of resources for what he would cost.
I would hope that Devers is the DH when Yoshida is in LF - but that's just my opinion. If not Casas could be. The one thing this team doesn't have is a shortage of players who should be DHing.
View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1748055680156606709/mediaviewer
Fried and Burnes are great pitchers, but it's the same old story - who's going to take on the risk of a monster contract to a pitcher who's hit the age of 30? The Red Sox seem especially averse to that kind of risk these days.
Nor Texas, nor the Giants apparently. Not sure the Yankees will dip back into that market. It's mostly been a frustrating time but the staring contest over SP value is kind of fascinating too.
Oh hell yeah! Houston has actually a lot going for it- incredible museums, great universities, a good arts and music scene. It’s THE most culturally diverse city in the US (sorry Queens). It’s got some really awful shit but the downtown and inner city areas are great.
There's also the possibility that Roki Sasaki will be posted (@Tokyo Sox seems to think he will I believe), in which case we can all daydream about getting him for a while until LA swoops in with another $350m.
SD is his rumored landing spot but also if he comes over before 2027, he is subject to IFA rules and can’t be paid much (like Ohtani’s first deal).
Thanks for sharing that. Not seeing who they could reasonable target at this point.
Rafaela has more career games (in the minors) at 3b than SS. The only position where he has more experience is CF.
This is true but also misleading. He hasn’t played a single inning at 3b since 2021. Since then he’s played 360 innings at SS. The organization clearly does not think playing him at 3b maximizes his on field value.
Yeah, I'm curious to know how much it would take to sign him. That said, if signing him is going to improve the defense at all, Casas will have to DH. According to Statcact, Casas's -10 OAA made him the second worst fielding 1b in baseball last year (39/40). Santana's +2 made him the 10th best in baseball.
Sure, I agree, in the abstract it doesn't. But when you have Story at SS and Devers at 3b, giving Devers some time at DH and placing Rafaela there on those days is a good use of his value, especially on a team that doesn't have anyone else who can passably field the position (including Devers).
All three are and all three have had serious health concerns and could end up not playing a ton of games last year. All the top pitchers have serious health concerns.
Question is, will he want to be more than an insurance policy getting some ABs vs LHP?
Seems to me like there are a lot of AB’s available; I’m unclear as to where all of the AB’s that went to Turner, Verdugo, and Duvall are going. Those three guys had almost 1600 PA’s last year. Give O’Neill and Abreu 450 and a few hundred more to Duran and that still leaves a bunch.
The other RH free agent who can actually cover 1b well (+4 OAA), has some positional flexibility (plays a mediocre OF as well) and pound LHP is Garrett Cooper. Like Santana, he'd be an excellent fit as the lefty masher (.908 OPS vs LHP in 23') from the bench who can spell Casas on days off and push Casas to the DH on some other days (as he is a much better fielder than him). Similar to Santana it's not clear he would be excited to join the Red Sox unless he has a chance at getting regular ABs. He could be a Refsnyder upgrade, who will play less in LF but is more capable at 1b (as someone needs to back up Casas).
Well presumably Rafaela gets a bunch of ABs as well. But yes, we all know there will be injuries too, so there will definitely be some ABs available for a player like Garrett Cooper or Carlos Santana, especially since they can both field at least one position well (something that very few members of this team can claim). On paper though, at least at the start of the season (unless they are committing to shifting Casas to DH), it won't look like there are that many chances for two guys whose primary position is 1b.
Any time you can give 3B at-bats to a 64 OPS+ player, (especially if it's the same position as your franchise player) you gotta do it.
As currently constructed, I would think that O'Neill, Duran, Abreau, Rafaela are likely to get the bulk of the roughly 1400 ABs/1600 PAs
Duran already had close to 400 PA’s last year, and Abreu and Rafaela had ~90.
We're now having a different discussion from your post and my response. And if we're now moving onto middle infielders I would guess that Story and Grissom will be expected to make up the bulk of that and possibly Rafaela
100%. And it’s not like there is a couple guys in AAA you are excited about right now.
The discussion is the same- the team doesn’t have close to enough good players under control to pick up all the plate appearances they need. If you go into the season with Abreu and Duran’s starting positions locked up, without viable competition, don’t complain when a few guys get hurt and suddenly the team has given hundreds of at bats to guys like David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez, and Rob Refsnyder.
I was this close to chiding you for suggesting Jonathan Schoop. This guy makes Schoop look like Bregman.
We were talking Santana you said that he would be "decent insurance for Casas and can get some AB vs LHP. " I simply asked if he would want to be more than that. I would say that the discussion is now completely different.
Right now. Yoshida, O’Neil, Duran, and Abreu are all starting irregardless of what hand the pitcher is throwing with.
The problem is how do you convince reasonably good free agents that your team is an attractive destination when you have starters penciled in at their primary position? I mean, someone like Carlos Santana plays a good defensive 1b and was close to league average at the plate. He had 600 PAs last year and, somewhat remarkably, he's had at least 500 ABs (except for the COVID shortened 2020 season) since he first became a regular in 2011. Maybe he's ready to slow down and take a bench role, but that will be a first for him. He would probably prefer a team that doesn't have an established first baseman (Miami maybe? They have Josh Bell but he should DH) or a team that has an established one but has a chance of a deep playoff run. Santana would make a nice bench addition to Atlanta, for example, where he could spell Matt Olson (who has slipped as a defender) and get some ABs against LHP ( Olson has a lower OPS against LHP than Santana). Unless the Sox tell him they are willing to shift Casas to DH, they don't seem to be offering that many ABs, until the inevitable happens and someone gets injured of course. That said, since he has limited defensive flexibility, Santana won't be able to benefit too much from an injury unless it's to Casas or someone who was expected to DH (like Yoshida).
So this is really about you wanting to acquire a vet who will be a dedicated DH?
Duvall's played 43 games at 1B 23 starts in 854 MLB games played. None since 2018.
It’s really hard to overemphasize how shallow of a group this is of position players.
I'm not saying they shouldn't be added to. But the solution is not to go out and get a player on the FA market who is redundant, or who won't address actual shortcomings.
Also. Imo we were spoiled by Ortiz. Most teams use the DH as a way to give players the day off from fielding. There are very few players who are only DH’s and very few teams who sign a player who will only DH.
Yeah, he seems like a guy they might try to sneak through. Reyes has no options left so I’d figure he starts on the 26, unless there’s more shakeups.
Ya a lot can change in a year and the FA crop can be evaluated then. But one thing that won’t change is Montgomery being an inning eater 3 and without an ace ceiling. Something that I don’t think this staff needs this year at his projected cost.
My lingering concern is that I agree with you that we seem to have enough guys to play each position, it's just that when you look at the sum total the result is a resounding shrug. Which, as you said, is less a matter of looking to plug a true hole than hoping to upgrade mediocrity.
