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TapeAndPosts

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I have never, ever seen anything like what the Dodgers are doing. If I were a fan I don't know if I'd be psyched (okay I would at least a little ;)) or terrified they could be the next 2023 Mets. I'm thinking a good, anxious uncomfortable mix of both. Maybe now the fans will stay after the 7th...
I think this is a reaction on the Dodgers's part to the larger playoffs and increased uncertainty that brings. Teams like the Sox look at the 2023 Diamondbacks and know they've got an increased chance of going far if they just make the playoffs, but that increased probability for mediocre teams comes at the expense of the strongest teams like the Dodgers. So they are exploring how much WS probability they can get back by pushing the upper end.
 

mikcou

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Worth noting here that the White Sox had an exceptionally bad defense in 2022, particularly the work of a few lugnuts in the outfield. Giolito's BABIP has always ranged between .255 and .274 over the full seasons of his career, but that year it was way up to .340.
Thats fair, but only in that while superficially 2022 looks worse than 2023, its actually the reverse. He still was bad in 2022, just not as terrible as perhaps his line might look at first glance. Heavy FB pitchers with declining strike out rates generally do not have great results and what made him a very good pitcher hasnt been present in a number of years.

If people are saying he'll bounce back and be a league average guy, I dont think that is all unlikely. If people are expecting him to be a 20-30% above league average guy because thats what he as 3-4 years ago, then yeah I think thats a pretty big stretch as he's had a pretty sustained reduction in his K rate since.
 

circus catch

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Damn, does this thread need a rumor! I've got a question. Is there anyone here who thinks the Sox are making ZERO additional moves before Opening Day? My opinion is no, they are not done, and I would imagine that most people agree with that. It would have been great if this all happened faster, but it isn't going to. Bryce Harper signed with the Phillies in March!

I see the Sox as one of a group of teams who are waiting to see if Snell or Montgomery's price comes down. Maybe somebody says the hell with it and pays the full price at the start of spring training, maybe not. I see the Sox as no less likely than any of the other teams to pull something off. I also see the Sox wanting to move KJ and am curious if that happens and the impact of that on free agency and the rest of the roster

There's certainly a scenario where the Sox add but in ways that aren't so encouraging. But I see it all as exciting. Just cringeworthy slow.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'd be a lot more optomistic in Giolito if 2023 was his only bad year. He was also bad in 2022 (even if not quite as homer prone); hes had a history of 350 inning over two years where he was anywhere from bad to terrible including an entire season (2022) when he was not traded at all or in the process of gettting divorced.

His 30%+ K rate that made him a top guy doesnt seem to be coming back (started declining from 32/33% in 2021 to 28% then to 25% in 2022 and 2023) so while he might not be as bad as 2022-2023; expecting him to bounce back to being materially better than league average seems like a huge assumption/quite unlikely.
I also don't quite get the enthusiasm for Giolito. From my perspective, he is a lateral substitute for Sale at best. Would anyone blink if Sale finally puts in a fully healthy season in Atlanta and Giolito just continues his second half '23 for all of next season? I'm not saying that that's the most likely scenario, but both of those guys are BIG IF'S....
Yes... Giolito is more likely to throw 160 innings than Sale but honestly I'm not as bullish as some on here to think he's going to somehow magically transfer back into what he was looking to be despite the Bailey/Breslow magical thinking line. My take on Gio was that he shouldn't be projected as anything more than a mid-rotation guy. Again... that's fine and maybe that's better than Sale's projection (ran over by a Big Wheel?).
I'm still feeling like the Sox are still in on Montgomery who has a higher floor (maybe a lower ceiling?) than Giolito. If I'm creating a floor/ceiling number I'd say Giolito is a 5/2 and Montgomery is a 3/2.

Without Montgomery the Sox rotation looks like 2 "no. 3's" (despite rosy numbers from Bello, he still has some red flags from the end of last season where he really looked pretty bad) and 3 "no. 5's" (maybe Pivetta, Houck/Crawford/Whitlock are all way better than this but they've all got too short of stretches of good starting pitching that outweigh their stretches of looking crappy combined with consistent nagging injuries to some extent). Bello a 4/1. Houck and Whitlock both a 5/3 and Crawford and Pivetta a 4/3.
 

Trapaholic

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Allow me to throw out a rumor with absolutely no evidence!

Sox have brought in Kyle Boddy from Driveline to serve in an advisory role on the pitching development side. He served in a similar role with the Cincinnati Reds a few years back.

Trevor Bauer is one of the original "Driveline guys" who helped put them on the radar in terms of big league exposure. Boddy was with Cincinnati in a similar role a few years ago, and he and Bauer crossed paths again there. They have known each other for years.

I am grasping at straws here, but I could not help but connect those dots.
 

YTF

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Allow me to throw out a rumor with absolutely no evidence!

Sox have brought in Kyle Boddy from Driveline to serve in an advisory role on the pitching development side. He served in a similar role with the Cincinnati Reds a few years back.

Trevor Bauer is one of the original "Driveline guys" who helped put them on the radar in terms of big league exposure. Boddy was with Cincinnati in a similar role a few years ago, and he and Bauer crossed paths again there. They have known each other for years.

I am grasping at straws here, but I could not help but connect those dots.
I'm totally cool if the Sox never connect those dots.
 

allstonite

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Allow me to throw out a rumor with absolutely no evidence!

Sox have brought in Kyle Boddy from Driveline to serve in an advisory role on the pitching development side. He served in a similar role with the Cincinnati Reds a few years back.

Trevor Bauer is one of the original "Driveline guys" who helped put them on the radar in terms of big league exposure. Boddy was with Cincinnati in a similar role a few years ago, and he and Bauer crossed paths again there. They have known each other for years.

I am grasping at straws here, but I could not help but connect those dots.
For a team in the midst of a PR crisis them thinking Bauer being an answer would be absolutely wild
 

Trapaholic

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For a team in the midst of a PR crisis them thinking Bauer being an answer would be absolutely wild
I agree with this. Even before the assault accusations, I felt that he was a knucklehead.

When he pitched for Cleveland, Francona came out to get him in a game vs. Kanas City. He turned around and chucked the ball over the centerfield fence before Tito could get out there. You don't show up Tito in front of everyone. Have some respect for Terry, he's earned it.
 

BaseballJones

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Would anyone blink if Sale finally puts in a fully healthy season in Atlanta and Giolito just continues his second half '23 for all of next season?
Not only wouldn’t I blink, I fully expect this to happen. I think Sale will start 28-30 games and have an ERA in the low 3’s. He’ll be terrific for them.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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Just for something else to discuss....

There was an article today that the Astros are looking for a LHH OF with speed to share CF with Jake Meyers. Obviously that describes Jarren Duran quite well, so I was curious if there was anything to match up with in Houston for a trade.

They are all in on winning the next couple of years at least so getting anything from the major league team would be difficult. Unfortunately their farm system seems very bad, without a single top 100 prospect as far as I can tell. I know @Big Papi's Mango Salsa had mentioned Hunter Brown previously but I am not sure if they would even consider trading him since he projects as part of the big league rotation.

Does something like Duran + Houck or Crawford get it done? Would it be worth it? Is there something else interesting from Houston if Brown is not for sale?
 

SouthernBoSox

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Just for something else to discuss....

There was an article today that the Astros are looking for a LHH OF with speed to share CF with Jake Meyers. Obviously that describes Jarren Duran quite well, so I was curious if there was anything to match up with in Houston for a trade.

They are all in on winning the next couple of years at least so getting anything from the major league team would be difficult. Unfortunately their farm system seems very bad, without a single top 100 prospect as far as I can tell. I know @Big Papi's Mango Salsa had mentioned Hunter Brown previously but I am not sure if they would even consider trading him since he projects as part of the big league rotation.

Does something like Duran + Houck or Crawford get it done? Would it be worth it? Is there something else interesting from Houston if Brown is not for sale?
The Astros just don’t match up as a trade partner. Their system is a complete wasteland and they want to win now, so the likelihood of getting major league assets are small.

I continue to think the Cardinals, Rangers, and Dodgers taking relief arms is the most likely trade scenario.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I also don't quite get the enthusiasm for Giolito. From my perspective, he is a lateral substitute for Sale at best. Would anyone blink if Sale finally puts in a fully healthy season in Atlanta and Giolito just continues his second half '23 for all of next season? I'm not saying that that's the most likely scenario, but both of those guys are BIG IF'S....
Yes... Giolito is more likely to throw 160 innings than Sale but honestly I'm not as bullish as some on here to think he's going to somehow magically transfer back into what he was looking to be despite the Bailey/Breslow magical thinking line. My take on Gio was that he shouldn't be projected as anything more than a mid-rotation guy. Again... that's fine and maybe that's better than Sale's projection (ran over by a Big Wheel?).
I'm still feeling like the Sox are still in on Montgomery who has a higher floor (maybe a lower ceiling?) than Giolito. If I'm creating a floor/ceiling number I'd say Giolito is a 5/2 and Montgomery is a 3/2.

Without Montgomery the Sox rotation looks like 2 "no. 3's" (despite rosy numbers from Bello, he still has some red flags from the end of last season where he really looked pretty bad) and 3 "no. 5's" (maybe Pivetta, Houck/Crawford/Whitlock are all way better than this but they've all got too short of stretches of good starting pitching that outweigh their stretches of looking crappy combined with consistent nagging injuries to some extent). Bello a 4/1. Houck and Whitlock both a 5/3 and Crawford and Pivetta a 4/3.
Health is a huge factor though. Inconsistency on the health front has a trickle down effect.

I love watching Sale pitch and flags fly forever, but for 2024 I'd rather have Giolito.
I agree with this. Even before the assault accusations, I felt that he was a knucklehead.

When he pitched for Cleveland, Francona came out to get him in a game vs. Kanas City. He turned around and chucked the ball over the centerfield fence before Tito could get out there. You don't show up Tito in front of everyone. Have some respect for Terry, he's earned it.
Yeah, this is where I'm at. If Francona has a problem with you, you're the problem. Personally, I felt the same way about Verdugo too. If Cora has a problem with you, you're the problem.
 

dynomite

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The Astros just don’t match up as a trade partner. Their system is a complete wasteland and they want to win now, so the likelihood of getting major league assets are small.

I continue to think the Cardinals, Rangers, and Dodgers taking relief arms is the most likely trade scenario.
I think the Phillies are the dark horse for a Jansen trade with the Sox. After Kimbrel departed, they were reportedly in on Hader, Stephenson, and other RP upgrades and struck out: https://thatballsouttahere.com/posts/phillies-free-agent-target-signing-with-angels-not-good-sign-for-bullpen-robert-stephenson

Their farm system isn't great, but they're in "win now" mode, Jansen would fill one of their biggest needs, and Dombrowski's never been afraid to make a deal. Indeed, he gave up a haul for Kimbrel when he ran the Sox (giving up Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje, and Logan Allen). Don't know much about their upper tier SP prospects, but they do have a lot of starters in their Top 20 prospects.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think the Phillies are the dark horse for a Jansen trade with the Sox. After Kimbrel departed, they were reportedly in on Hader, Stephenson, and other RP upgrades and struck out: https://thatballsouttahere.com/posts/phillies-free-agent-target-signing-with-angels-not-good-sign-for-bullpen-robert-stephenson

Their farm system isn't great, but they're in "win now" mode, Jansen would fill one of their biggest needs, and Dombrowski's never been afraid to make a deal. Indeed, he gave up a haul for Kimbrel when he ran the Sox (giving up Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje, and Logan Allen). Don't know much about their upper tier SP prospects, but they do have a lot of starters in their Top 20 prospects.
Again, I'll keep at this despite being probably the only one here that still thinks that the Sox are "in" on Montgomery or Snell... but I can squint with the roster as is and see them somehow magically making the playoffs but it'd be a lot of luck and good health with other teams breaking in the other direction on those. But even with all that, they'd need Jansen as the rotation is one deep (Whitlock, who I'm guessing is bullpen ace guy) and maybe two (Winchowski?) at the ML level and not much in AAA. If they add one of M/S then I'm all for dealing Jansen and think Houck would make a great closer type... but that still leaves the rotation pretty shallow. I think it'd be okay to shift a two inning mid-bullpen guy into a starting role but not a closer.
 

Jack Rabbit Slim

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I don’t see how the Sox can really deal Houck and / or Crawford at this point, who pitches?
Well in this scenario they would be trading just one of Houck/Crawford for Hunter Brown, a 25 year old starting pitcher who pitched 155 innings at a 5.09 ERA/4.37 FIP in his first full year. I would prefer to add Brown to the rotation mix and keep both, but I don't see anyway Houston would make the trade without getting a replacement back for their 2024 rotation.

Brown would seem to have a higher floor/more certainty as a starter given the innings, but I am not sure he is even better rate wise than Crawford or Houck. The extra innings are worth something, but Duran is probably too much to pay for them.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I adore the idea @Jack Rabbit Slim. Responded in the "moves" thread in more detail.

Short summation - my idea was all centered around (why it makes sense for Houston) the ideas that a) they needed some bullpen help and b) they didn't appear to want to blow through the Luxury Tax. Unfortunately, signing Hader nullifies either line of thinking.
 

opes

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Well in this scenario they would be trading just one of Houck/Crawford for Hunter Brown, a 25 year old starting pitcher who pitched 155 innings at a 5.09 ERA/4.37 FIP in his first full year. I would prefer to add Brown to the rotation mix and keep both, but I don't see anyway Houston would make the trade without getting a replacement back for their 2024 rotation.

Brown would seem to have a higher floor/more certainty as a starter given the innings, but I am not sure he is even better rate wise than Crawford or Houck. The extra innings are worth something, but Duran is probably too much to pay for them.

This makes absolutely no sense. Houck for Brown? Why exactly? What are we gaining in this trade? To only get another 55 innings of mediocre pitching?
 

dynomite

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This makes absolutely no sense. Houck for Brown? Why exactly? What are we gaining in this trade? To only get another 55 innings of mediocre pitching?
This makes no sense to me either, but for the opposite reason: why would Houston trade Hunter Brown, exactly? Sorry if I missed something elsewhere about him being on the market or the Astros looking to trade him.

Far from "mediocre pitching," he was the top prospect in their system before last year, he's making $700K this year, he's under team control until 2029 and not even arbitration eligible until 2026, and as a 24-year-old just threw 155 IP with a 3.52 xFIP at the Major League level.

For a rough approximation of value here, Baseball Trade Values has Brown at ~65, Bello at ~45, Duran at ~35, and Houck at ~22. (In fact, Bello seems like a pretty good comp, right? Similar age, ~155 IP thrown last year, etc.)

Again, I'll keep at this despite being probably the only one here that still thinks that the Sox are "in" on Montgomery or Snell... but I can squint with the roster as is and see them somehow magically making the playoffs but it'd be a lot of luck and good health with other teams breaking in the other direction on those. But even with all that, they'd need Jansen as the rotation is one deep (Whitlock, who I'm guessing is bullpen ace guy) and maybe two (Winchowski?) at the ML level and not much in AAA. If they add one of M/S then I'm all for dealing Jansen and think Houck would make a great closer type... but that still leaves the rotation pretty shallow. I think it'd be okay to shift a two inning mid-bullpen guy into a starting role but not a closer.
Oh, I agree that trading Jansen would be a blow to the 2024 Red Sox, but I'm starting from the presumption that Jansen really is on the market. If he is, the Phillies make a lot of sense as a trade partner.
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Oh, I agree that trading Jansen would be a blow to the 2024 Red Sox, but I'm starting from the presumption that Jansen really is on the market. If he is, the Phillies make a lot of sense as a trade partner.
Yeah, didn't think you weren't saying that..... but BIG IF they get Montgomery/Snell then I don't think he'd be a big loss actually.
 

GB5

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I would be all for trading Jansen, I don’t think he has much value to the RS with the way the team is currently constructed. As much bad PR would follow with the signing of Bauer, dumping Jansen’s salary without signing at least a medium priced free agent would be another blow to the RS fans.
 

TomRicardo

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This makes absolutely no sense. Houck for Brown? Why exactly? What are we gaining in this trade? To only get another 55 innings of mediocre pitching?
Hunter Brown is a better pitcher but Houck doesn't make a ton of sense as the other pitcher. Maybe something like Pivetta and Yorke would make sense if you were going that route.
 

SouthernBoSox

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One of the things I find frustrating is this new narrative of ….

“We want to kids to grow and develop rather than sign older short term free agents”

That is what’s popped up several times now from posters when good short term free agents are signed.

It completely ignores the possibility these pieces could be flipped at the deadline for real prospects. Matt Moore is a perfect example.

If you get hot and are in the playoff hunt. Fantastic. You made a good team.

If not, you can flip them for value and have even more ammunition going into 2024.
 

YTF

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I never want to see Bobby D at bat for the Red Sox again, is that too much to ask?
I'm thinking he probably starts the season as the RH CI option to Devers and Casas. There's a need and at the rate things are going I don't think that Justin Turner's walking through that door. I also think that the fact that they used him in the OF in WOOstah last season might lead them to think he's also a RH option out there as well. Not advocating any of this, but if he continues to be on the 40 man and has even a half way decent spring I think they have to bring him up even if only to give him his last shot to stick with the team.
 

simplicio

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One of the things I find frustrating is this new narrative of ….

“We want to kids to grow and develop rather than sign older short term free agents”

That is what’s popped up several times now from posters when good short term free agents are signed.

It completely ignores the possibility these pieces could be flipped at the deadline for real prospects. Matt Moore is a perfect example.

If you get hot and are in the playoff hunt. Fantastic. You made a good team.

If not, you can flip them for value and have even more ammunition going into 2024.
As is the roster is already overfull though, with Mata or Slaten likely to get cut, and we already have a couple flippable pieces in Jansen and Martin. So adding another FA means you're necessarily losing the other to make room (unless you're optioning Winck or something, which doesn't seem realistic).
 

chawson

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One of the things I find frustrating is this new narrative of ….

“We want to kids to grow and develop rather than sign older short term free agents”

That is what’s popped up several times now from posters when good short term free agents are signed.

It completely ignores the possibility these pieces could be flipped at the deadline for real prospects. Matt Moore is a perfect example.

If you get hot and are in the playoff hunt. Fantastic. You made a good team.

If not, you can flip them for value and have even more ammunition going into 2024.
I like this sort of thing in principle very much and also like Moore. But this signing reminds me how tight the 26-man bullpen currently is:

No options
Jansen
Martin
Mata
Slaten (effectively)

Virtual locks
one of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford (the other two currently in rotation)
Winckowski
Bernardino
Schreiber

Optionable guys currently slated for the minors
Criswell
Murphy
Campbell
Kelly
Weissert
Walter
Castillo
Jacques
Weiss
Gonzalez
Perales

That's a full slate. I think there's no issue whatsoever with booting Jacques from the 40-man in favor of Moore. But as it stands right now, signing Moore would mean a Mata DFA from the 26-man, or else a demotion of Schreiber or Bernardino to Worcester plus a DFA from the Jacques/Weiss/Castillo group. That's all barring a trade, but replacing Jansen with Moore seems like a lateral move in a bubble.

That all gets a little crunchier of course if the Sox sign Montgomery or Snell.
 

jon abbey

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Currently the only LHP on the 40-man ate

Bernardino
Murphy
Jacques
Walter

Not great.
I don't think this matters so much in the 'mandatory 3 batters' era. the Astros have had an all-righty bullpen most of the time in recent years and the Yankees also currently have very little from the lefty side in their pen on the 40 man.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I don't think this matters so much in the 'mandatory 3 batters era'. the Astros have had an all-righty bullpen most of the time in recent years and the Yankees also currently have very little from the lefty side in their pen on the 40 man.
That’s true. I was thinking it’s kind of crazy that the Sox don’t have a lefty in the rotation, but it worked out pretty well in ‘04.
 

HfxBob

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I don't think this matters so much in the 'mandatory 3 batters era'. the Astros have had an all-righty bullpen most of the time in recent years and the Yankees also currently have very little from the lefty side in their pen on the 40 man.
It does matter less with the new rule, although you will see managers start an inning with a lefty when the scheduled hitters are L-R-L. There's also the opportunity to use a lefty reliever against a lefty hitter with 2 outs-just a bit more pressure to get the guy out!
 

SouthernBoSox

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I like this sort of thing in principle very much and also like Moore. But this signing reminds me how tight the 26-man bullpen currently is:

No options
Jansen
Martin
Mata
Slaten (effectively)

Virtual locks
one of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford (the other two currently in rotation)
Winckowski
Bernardino
Schreiber

Optionable guys currently slated for the minors
Criswell
Murphy
Campbell
Kelly
Weissert
Walter
Castillo
Jacques
Weiss
Gonzalez
Perales

That's a full slate. I think there's no issue whatsoever with booting Jacques from the 40-man in favor of Moore. But as it stands right now, signing Moore would mean a Mata DFA from the 26-man, or else a demotion of Schreiber or Bernardino to Worcester plus a DFA from the Jacques/Weiss/Castillo group. That's all barring a trade, but replacing Jansen with Moore seems like a lateral move in a bubble.

That all gets a little crunchier of course if the Sox sign Montgomery or Snell.
This is totally fair and my thoughts have a prerequisite of trading Jansen and/or Martin for actual value before the season starts.

That value might not be available. We don’t know. But a trade of Jansen for something while adding Moore would have made a ton of sense. Oh well
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The pitching staff looks pretty full- but that’s assuming no injuries. If, say, Whitlock and Bernardino are injured and not ready to break camp (substitute any two names), you are suddenly looking at a pen with, like, Jacques and Criswell in addition to the other locks. Feels meh. Then again, lots of good bullpens lately looked fairly crappy on paper.
 

GB5

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I don’t think our new GM really envisions Bobby on the roster. I am really not sure what is going on with their free agency plans and spending money, but Breslow multiple times has said what everybody knows in that they need more starting pitching, but then also goes on to add that they need a RH bat with positional versatility….which I think is almost exactly what Bobby is.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Remaining FA Hitters who could at least theoretically play multiple positions….

Cody Bellinger
Joc Pederson
Justin Turner
Evan Longoria
Wil Myers
Matt Chapman
Randal Grichuk
Kike Hernandez
Gio Urshela
Adam Frazier
CJ Cron
Jurickson Profar
Adam Duvall
Brad Miller
Jared Walsh

Not a bad list this late. Am not too worried about the team having to break camp with Bobby D.
 

absintheofmalaise

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I don’t think our new GM really envisions Bobby on the roster. I am really not sure what is going on with their free agency plans and spending money, but Breslow multiple times has said what everybody knows in that they need more starting pitching, but then also goes on to add that they need a RH bat with positional versatility….which I think is almost exactly what Bobby is.
He does have some positional flexibility. And while it's true he does hold the bat in his right hands, he is not a good hitter at all.
 

NickEsasky

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One of the things I find frustrating is this new narrative of ….

“We want to kids to grow and develop rather than sign older short term free agents”

That is what’s popped up several times now from posters when good short term free agents are signed.

It completely ignores the possibility these pieces could be flipped at the deadline for real prospects. Matt Moore is a perfect example.

If you get hot and are in the playoff hunt. Fantastic. You made a good team.

If not, you can flip them for value and have even more ammunition going into 2024.
Some folks suggest this and I get it but it's important to remember this isn't fantasy baseball. These are human beings with lives that get uprooted when they get traded. Seeing guys sign and get flipped may make signing the next FA that much harder.
 

TomRicardo

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