Makes sense(end sarcasm) (stats are last 4 seasons).
We will see. It’s not like major league teams don’t understand this or are blind to the matrix of outcomes here.
Oh sure, I promise I recognize that MLB teams are way freaking smarter than I am.
Oh, I completely agree. I think I misunderstood you on your comment. I thought you were saying that made sense as a baseline.
OH, LOL. I edited my post to make it clear that my "Makes sense" comment was sarcasm. Sorry about that.
He really does remind me of JD. The team need and player fit just make too much sense. Boras playing tough. Market doesn’t appear as robust as Boras would like at this point. Spring training around the corner.
Wow, do you always take things this literally? My question was what's called a "rhetorical" question. If you don't know what that means, you should look it up. I was responding to a post about Monty being widely expected to re-sign with Texas. For the record, no, I have no inside information.
Montgomery had a 4.3 fWAR in 2023. fWAR is largely based on Fielding Independent Percentage, no? Montgomery's 2023 FIP was 3.56. It was 3.61 in 2022 and 3.69 in 2021. He's actually been pretty consistent over the last 3 years.
Right. I don't really feel like I have been unclear on my position that I think Montgomery is a very good pitcher who would be a considerable help to the Red Sox in 2024. He is a very good pitcher.
Can you explain your reasoning here? If everyone seized on Kennedy saying payroll will “probably” be lower than last year (along with “I don’t know for sure, we don’t talk about payroll numbers”), why wouldn’t they seize on a tacit promise that the payroll will be higher.
Or that they see Criswell as a starter long term and expect him to fill that role in Worcester and be available to the Red Sox in case of injury.
Depth, definitely. Minor league depth. Whether or not anymore FAs are pursued remains to be seen, but I seriously doubt that having Criswell in the fold would signal the end of it.
With regard to the LHP, a number of lefties have had success with the Red Sox, with Sale being the most recent example. Montgomery actually reminds me a lot of Jon Lester.
Criswell might be an interesting arm at some point but his sinker and changeup got absolutely crushed last year. I'm guessing he settles in as a middle-reliever throwing a mix of cutters and sweepers and only makes it as a starter if the velocity on the sinker improves somehow. Fitts is also reportedly in need of a third pitch, so I wouldn't slot those guys in as depth yet.
I agree with your first sentence, but can you tell us if you think any of those scenarios are actually likely, or even realistic, and how much so for each given the information we have right now?
The biggest difference for me is that Montgomery is not a skinny guy with an odd wind-up. That's why I thought he might be worth a long contract.
Yes, I agree. His build and his throwing motion are both conducive to durability.
I don't think that's true at all. Back in November, they (Breslow and Cora) were saying that all of Pivetta, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, and Winckowski were all going to prepare over the winter as if they would be starters in 2024. That was the same thing they did last winter. Seems like it's just the way they want any guy who could conceivably be a starter to prepare even if they're destined for the bullpen. Far easier to transition from a starting routine/workload to a reliever role than vice versa.
I’m not saying it’s likely, but I don’t know what’s especially feverish about it. But sure, I’ll explain it again (I’ve floated the scenario a few times in different threads).
People who give out $100M+ contracts to people without factoring in every part of that person's attributes and abilities don't become billionaires. I guarantee that him being a LHP is a part of the consideration.
Why wouldn’t they be able to do both? Montgomery this year and Burnes next year? There is no real opportunity cost to signing Montgomery this year unless they impose their own restrictions.
I can certainly see the logic here but given the way last season went, I would just plan to go into the season with all of Pivetta, Houck, Crawford, and Whitlock on the staff if we were to sign Snell/Monty.
Randy Johnson was a skinny guy with the same arm slot. Pablo ate his way out of baseball. Maybe we should stop pretending like body type is any way predictive of aging or injuries?
No, your question was not a rhetorical question. It was a demand to know “why in the hell are the Red Sox are not in on Montgomery?”
According to your post, you have demanded this information many, many times here. And yet you acknowledge that, like the rest of us, you have no inside information about what the Red Sox are up to this off-season.
It's great that you have this opinion, but it's not great that you aren't telling us why you have this opinion. Please take the time to give us your reasons so that we can message board with you.
I think the trade market is held up by Boras’s four guys. It typically gets going once free agents are signed.
The article says "if it brings back a shortstop." Are you thinking that Rafaela is seen as a shortstop in this scenario or more of a good swap as a CF?
Yeah, a couple of years ago Rafaela would have been a need, as I know the Marlins were having issues finding a centerfielder, but they seem pretty set there with Jazz at CF. I don't think moving Chisholm back to 2B would be a consideration with Arraez there.
What's our need for Cabrera exactly? He's another sub-5 IP guy. We already have a bunch of those and ours are better. Who's he bumping out of the rotation?
Exactly, Rafaella would have a lot of value to the Marlins given he plays two premium positions as a plus defender.
I'd be interested in this. Like all of us, I LOVE watching Rafaela. He's incredibly fun to root for. But there are real questions about him...as I believe there are about Cabrera. Both have lots of team control left--Cabrera is a free agent in 2029--and tantalizing potential. To those asking, Rafaela has all the tools to be a plus shortstop. in fact, he WAS a plus shortstop until the organization moved him into center, where he's now plus-plus, in 2021 to take advantage of his incredible athleticism.
How credible do we think these reports are of Cabrera's availability?
Yeah, it seems logical for sure.
It's a fair question, but he's only going to be 26 this year, and I think it's fair to project improvement. For what it's worth, Fangraphs is projecting him at 139 innings over 26 starts this year, or a touch over 5 innings per start. Just a projection, of course, and who knows, but I think a guy with questions but talent and team control is a good roll of the dice...especially if that's precisely what we'd be giving up for him.
If Cabrera was available for Turner last season and SP scarce…. Why hasn’t Cabrera been moved this offseason?
And listen you aren’t going to get a sure fire starter with control without giving up your top end prospects.
Because Miami was in the middle of a playoff race (they made the WC) and desperately needed offense. My post being short is not meant to be snarky and hope it doesn't come across as such, but the situations (for Miami) aren't at all similar (as in where things are this minute and where they were at the deadline of last year).
They were playing well and looked like they had a real shot at 80+ wins and the postseason for the first time in a decade. Also Turner was having a terrific year and could have been a veteran to help push them over the edge. Sometimes circumstances line up for a deal like that— but with the uncertainty around the team now, they've disappeared.
Not to continue to be a Bloom apologist (I am glad the team has moved on), but I am not sure how credible those rumors (or the Sale ones) were. Of starting pitchers moved at the deadline last year (per Sporting News article here): Baltimore gave up two of their organization's top 20 prospects for Jack Flaherty, Phillies gave up their #5 prospect for Michael Lorenzen, Astros gave up their top prospect and #4 for Verlander, among others.
