I agree with your first sentence, but can you tell us if you think any of those scenarios are actually likely, or even realistic, and how much so for each given the information we have right now?
And if signing Montgomery costs Pivetta, sorry, not interested. I think he's a very valuable asset right now. No thanks.
Who is giving us what for the Duran/Pivetta package? I'd listen to offers, but you say "excellent return" without any specifics.
I think we'll likely see some moves around the edges, but some of what you wrote there reads like a fever dream.
I’m not saying it’s likely, but I don’t know what’s especially feverish about it. But sure, I’ll explain it again (I’ve floated the scenario a few times in different threads).
I don’t know if you’re somebody who’s calcified the notion that we’re not making any more moves, at the exclusion of all of Breslow’s comments to the contrary, but I guess we’ll see what happens.
I think the Red Sox Opening Day center fielder in 2025 is Roman Anthony. From there, I think there are a few paths for Duran, and one of them is a trade.
I also think, judging from Breslow’s repeated comments explicitly saying so, that they plan to acquire a right-handed bat, probably one who takes a lot of PAs at DH. That would give us an outfield of Yoshida, O’Neill, Duran, Abreu, and Refsnyder, with Rafaela in the wings.
Of those, Duran is the guy with the most trade value, and also the one whose ability to play his position is most in question, even after last year‘s improvements. So, he is who I think they may trade, especially if they think he is ultimately a left fielder, and Anthony is their guy in 2025 anyway.
On the pitching side, if we signed Montgomery, he’d have to replace
somebody in the rotation. So many are preparing to come to camp to start, we can only guess. Maybe you believe that both Houck and Whitlock are destined for relief duty, and maybe that’s what happens. I tend to think that the Red Sox value Houck’s skill set, especially with Bailey here. But they should definitely trade him for something of equal value rather than relegate him to the bullpen, where his value decreases. (We can debate whether it decreases, but we’ve got a lot of RH bullpen arms now, and if there’s a team out there that sees Houck as a #3-4 starter still in his pre-arb years, they should value him that way. That’s exactly what he pitched like last year before his injury.)
But utimately, don’t think the Sox will trade Houck. The guy to deal is Pivetta, if I had to choose (as many on this board will recall). He had a terrific season after a pitch tweak, but has only one year left and is still a questionable guy to try to extend — if he even would be open to that. I’m definitely not as averse to keeping Pivetta around now as I was last year, because the stuff certainly plays up a lot better now. But there’s only so much I’d want to give him into his mid-thirtied. I still think Houck, Whitlock and Crawford can improve, specifically as starters. We’re not gonna have a six-man rotation, and it’s more valuable, in my view, to build up a guy we have the next half decade.