Offseason rumors

[soxhop411]

At the risk of backlash as this gets thrown around occasionally, it has a vibe of selling the team.

The thing is, if FSG was actually looking at selling the Sox, we would most likely know by now (or at least have heard reports of FSG putting out feelers for who could be interested in buying the team).. Not to mention all the other things that go into exploring a sale of a team/company

 

[kazuneko]

We've been put in a position where we will have to deal top level prospects for pitching, when we could have signed pitching. At this point, I'd be absolutely stunned if they signed anyone of any real meaning.

Yeah, It seems likely that they are focusing on 2025, which I'm fine with. That said, they better be prepared for some seriously negative fan reactions.
If that's where they are at they should trade or consider extending anyone on 1 year deal unless they feel they are of relatively low trade value. Makes me wonder about Pivetta, who wouldn't need to be that much better in 24 than he was in 23 to get some substantial offers next year. If they like him they should extend him. If they don't they probably should consider trading him. Another player they need to make a decision on is Duran. There is a good chance his trade value is never going to be higher. If they think that's true they need to cash in now, but I don't want to see them keep him and then watch him regress. If that happens, Breslow will deserve some blame for not selling high.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I can already hear some of you tapping out your replies, so I’ll say it: most of these were the “right” thing to do! Or at the very least they were defensible. (I’m still mad at BC about the Lackey trade.) And one could argue that many or even most of these signings were bad to begin with, and not even with the benefit of hindsight. Both valid positions! But not my point. I bring this up to note that it kind of seems like he’s never really been super-comfortable with the old free-spending ways, and maybe - even though that approach has brought him success in the past - now he’s just saying “nope, not doing that again.” Maybe.

I don't disagree with you. Business-wise, getting low to medium-priced free agents at short years and seeing what they can do is probably a sound decision. With the way that the playoffs have expanded, if you're sitting at a little above .500 in September, you will probably find yourself in the pennant race. And if you make it and get hot in October, who knows where you can go. You compare the money that you shelled out (not much) to a team that went crazy in the winter and you see where both of you end up (probably around the same position). Also, while you are shopping at Dollar Tree you have a couple of prospects on the farm that are poised to come up in a year or two and since they make no money either, you can save even more dough.

Like I said, that makes prudent financial sense and in no way does this make this team cheap in the Oakland A's sense.

Having said that and knowing that John Henry isn't in the business of losing money, it's not a lot of fun, is it? I mean it was fun when the Sox were figuring out how the Sox were pulling one over on everyone by nabbing Kevin Millar or picking up Manny and Damon and Foulke and trading for Pedro and Schilling and Beckett and Sale. Even though a lot of us thought that the Lackey, Renteria, Sandoval and Hanley deals were dumb before the ink was dried, it was fun thinking about what those guys would do in the summer. The last couple of winters haven't been much fun. Like @NickEsasky said a few days ago, there is a segment of Sox fans who like to follow the team as if they were general managers and are looking to Excel as well as baseball-ref to determine whether the Sox have "won" the off-season. And dudes, I'm not going to yuck your yum. My least favorite part of my job are spreadsheets and I certainly don't want to think about those as I'm pondering my favorite baseball team.

For me, baseball--and sports in general--are supposed to be fun. There's a gamble you make when you sign a premium free agent: is he going to be Manny or Renteria? It's fun to gamble with someone else's money. But at some point, that guy might turn off the money spigot and try to get the most bang for his buck.

Put it this way, say you've got a new Porsche every other year for the last 20 years. It's expensive, it's always in the shop and since you live in New England, you can only really drive it half the year. But your family loves it. They love driving around in that Porsche with the top down and it's a real treat for everyone. Except you, because you're paying for everything. So instead of a Porsche, you buy a Subaru this. It's got all the same whistles and bells as your old Porsche, but it's a Subaru. It's not as sexy but it doesn't cost an arm and a leg and it gets you to where you need to go. Now no one wants to take a ride with Dad to grab takeout in the Subaru as they once did in the Porsche. I get why the Subaru is the better family car, but at the same time something is lost.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Here's an article by a meteorologist explaining that moist air is less dense than dry air and that balls will fly farther. And another by a couple of physics professors. This one from Cal State Chico.

Speaking to temperature, the warmer the air is, the further a ball will fly. The is due to a warmer airmass being less dense than a colder one, providing less resistance to a ball in flight.

Another factor is humidity. Same principle applies here.... the more moisture content there is in the air, the less dense the airmass is. So, the ball will fly further in a muggier airmass as opposed to a dry one.

Another factor is air pressure. The lower the pressure, the less dense the air is. As you progress higher in elevation, the air will become significantly less dense. That's why the ball travels so well in a place such as Denver. Same principle applies to the mountains of North Carolina.

From the Cal State guys:

The density of the air will determine the distance of fy balls because less dense air is thinner air. Think Coors Field. A physicist would say something more wonky like, “The higher the air density, the higher the drag force on a ball in fight.”

Things are getting complicated now. The marine layer’s low temperatures should increase the density of the air and reduce the distance of fy balls. However, the marine layer’s high humidity level has the opposite effect. Humidity is the result of water molecules replacing the nitrogen and oxygen molecules in the air. Water molecules are 35 to 45 percent lighter, which reduces the air density. This causes the distance to increase. This seems counterintuitive, but it’s true: Although it feels “thicker,” humid air is less dense than dry air.

In Alan Nathan’s Hardball Times article, “Going Deep on Goin’ Deep,” he found that a 10-degree decrease in temperature will shorten the distance of a fy ball by about three feet, while a 50 percent increase in relative humidity will increase the distance by roughly one foot. According to physics, then, there should be little effect due to the marine layer. Both the “temperature effect” and the “humidity effect” are relatively small, and they work to counteract each other.

 

[chrisfont9]

Trevor Bauer had some interesting comments today about Imanaga in a podcast today (they were teammates last year), particularly about his fly ball pitcher profile. "I think what people miss though is... that's a fly ball pitcher in Japan, where it's hard to generate fly balls because the swing planes are flat, and people are trying to hit the ball on the ground." "So you think he's getting above barrels here [in MLB]?" "Yeah for sure."

Bauer went on to say that he doesn't think MLB hitters are really going to be able to hit his fastball. His primary concern on Imanaga was whether he can maintain his velocity upon transitioning to a 5-man rotation because he thinks the fastball is more hittable if he loses velo.

Skip to minute 36 if you just want the Imanaga scouting report and don't care for the Bauer redemption tour. I only listened to those 8 minutes but Middlebrooks also asked him about Yoshida's 2nd half struggles and they talk about some of the off-field issues with NPB/MLB transitions generally.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqpPHjIR2gM

Huh interesting. And no, not interested in the first 35 minutes of what he has to say.

 

[johnlos]

I don't care about any of the OF/DH guys that were being bandied about here. The OF as currently constructed (in some form of O'Neill, Abreu, Rafaela, Duran, Refsnyder and Yoshida) is fine IMO. Improves the defense from last season (I'm probably more bullish on Duran and Rafaela than most). The last remaining opening from my POV on offense is getting Turner back as the regular DH at home and backup corner guy to rest Casas, Devers on away games (with Yoshida in LF at Fenway and mostly DH away). Provides the RH power too that everyone wants and will likely be able to be had on another 1 year deal.
Other than.... it's just one more starting pitcher out of the SIMS group OR a trade for a SP.
But Teoscar, Soler, etc..... just no. I haven't been convinced by any of the arguments here that he was a fit short term or long term at all.

I think that's right. And just save the money the cap room for if we end up being competitive for playoffs.

 

[chrisfont9]

Here's an article by a meteorologist explaining that moist air is less dense than dry air and that balls will fly farther. And another by a couple of physics professors. This one from Cal State Chico.

From the Cal State guys:

Right, I think that's what I read recently in an article about Seattle park factors, that it cools off a lot at night. My hunch is that SF has the same dynamic, and even LA to some degree?

 

[Rovin Romine]

At the risk of backlash as this gets thrown around occasionally, it has a vibe of selling the team.

I'm not really well versed on the history of baseball team sales. Is it common to shed contracts beforehand or something?

 

[bosockboy]

I'm not really well versed on the history of baseball team sales. Is it common to shed contracts beforehand or something?

The seller often likes to clean the books for the new owners to not saddle them with contracts they didn’t choose.

 

[Sleepy108]

Yankees Decline Star Pitcher's Signing Proposal (msn.com) Not sure if this is posted. Story is 2 hours old

 

[EddieYost]

Looks like it was written by AI.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Awaiting Stroman's next installment: Remembering when Andre Dawson offered the Cubs a blank contract (mlb.com)

 

[sezwho]

Looks like it was written by AI.

It absolutely does

 

[Archer1979]

Not to single you out Arch, but the more that I think about San Diego's spending spree last year, the more that I think that was an anomaly. Owner Pete Seidler was dying, it wouldn't surprise me that he knew that he didn't have long to live and instructed his FO to buy everyone that they could so that he could see them win. Obviously it didn't go their way and he passed away without ever seeing his beloved team hold the trophy, but your point is correct in that super teams aren't always going to win and usually baseball teams built with stars need a year or two to gel before they get good (for whatever reason). The Pads didn't have a lot of time to gel, Seidler died and the jettisoning of stars began a few months back.

Even if they don't win, super teams are usually fun to watch. Add to the circumstances of Padre ownership and I was bummed out that San Diego didn't make a run.

No worries. You might be right as a ton of it depends on which way the ball bounces with the signees. Certainly the Dodgers are going to merit watching but they were set up for success last year and ended up three and out in the playoffs. Thing with the Dodgers is that they’ve already spent a ton and all they have to show for it is a pandemic assisted championship. Don’t get me wrong as i think that FA is an important vehicle to get great players. I just don’t think that you can spend your way out of a mess like last years and vault yourself into relevancy not without a high degree of risk

 

[zenax]

Has anyone done some long form research into why Yoshida is considered such a bad defender?

Is there any source that compares fielding at a player's home park versus all the other parks in which he played during his various seasons?

Also, something that needs to be considered are batters hitting the ball to opposite fields. That adds horizontal Magnus force (sidespin) to the ball resulting in curving. A ball hit by a right-hander off the left field wall will probably have the opposite sidespin than one hit by a left-hander and bounce off at a somewhat different angle.

 

[OCD SS]

Frankly it does not make much sense to me. Like if Breslow could sign a key FA to a two year deal, or a three year deal at better value, he only has the option of the second? I kinda doubt it.

The only thing I could think of two support a two-year FA cap was if a bunch of key players were hitting arb in year 3 and they want to keep costs down for that future eventuality. . .Bello, Casas, Winckowski, Abreu.

But that seems far fetched.

… it would also mean that they’re not planning on extending the kids, since that’s the point their AAV would even out.

 

[Sausage in Section 17]

I just don’t think that you can spend your way out of a mess like last years and vault yourself into relevancy not without a high degree of risk

With all the contractual insanity that has happened in the last 2-3 years, I am reminded that John Henry amassed his fortune with great mathematical skill, and an ability to read markets better than others.

I have wondered at times, watching the Sox take a more passive, cautious approach, whether Henry has decided that this is simply an insane market, and perhaps a better time to hang back and let your opponents make mistakes. That will be frustrating for Sox fans as long as it keeps going, but man, a lot of these higher year/dollar contracts lately just seem a little more risky than usual. It's already not looking good for San Diego's "window".

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Is there any source that compares fielding at a player's home park versus all the other parks in which he played during his various seasons?

Also, something that needs to be considered are batters hitting the ball to opposite fields. That adds horizontal Magnus force (sidespin) to the ball resulting in curving. A ball hit by a right-hander off the left field wall will probably have the opposite sidespin than one hit by a left-hander and bounce off at a somewhat different angle.

Baseball savant has him in the 2 percentile for fielding value. It’s a combination of being really slow and having a lousy arm.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

With all the contractual insanity that has happened in the last 2-3 years, I am reminded that John Henry amassed his fortune with great mathematical skill, and an ability to read markets better than others.

I have wondered at times, watching the Sox take a more passive, cautious approach, whether Henry has decided that this is simply an insane market, and perhaps a better time to hang back and let your opponents make mistakes. That will be frustrating for Sox fans as long as it keeps going, but man, a lot of these higher year/dollar contracts lately just seem a little more risky than usual. It's already not looking good for San Diego's "window".

They are made even more riskier by an uncertain local revenue future. LA can spend like crazy because their local revenues are high and guaranteed. Most teams aren’t in that position.

 

[HfxBob]

With all the contractual insanity that has happened in the last 2-3 years, I am reminded that John Henry amassed his fortune with great mathematical skill, and an ability to read markets better than others.

I have wondered at times, watching the Sox take a more passive, cautious approach, whether Henry has decided that this is simply an insane market, and perhaps a better time to hang back and let your opponents make mistakes. That will be frustrating for Sox fans as long as it keeps going, but man, a lot of these higher year/dollar contracts lately just seem a little more risky than usual. It's already not looking good for San Diego's "window".

What about the Rangers though? They spent a bundle the last two seasons and they're the champs.

The Dodgers have been spending and their regular season performance at least has been tremendous.

It's a zero sum game, of course, some teams will spend and flop like the Mets and Padres.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I don't disagree with you. Business-wise, getting low to medium-priced free agents at short years and seeing what they can do is probably a sound decision. With the way that the playoffs have expanded, if you're sitting at a little above .500 in September, you will probably find yourself in the pennant race. And if you make it and get hot in October, who knows where you can go. You compare the money that you shelled out (not much) to a team that went crazy in the winter and you see where both of you end up (probably around the same position). Also, while you are shopping at Dollar Tree you have a couple of prospects on the farm that are poised to come up in a year or two and since they make no money either, you can save even more dough.

Like I said, that makes prudent financial sense and in no way does this make this team cheap in the Oakland A's sense.

Having said that and knowing that John Henry isn't in the business of losing money, it's not a lot of fun, is it? I mean it was fun when the Sox were figuring out how the Sox were pulling one over on everyone by nabbing Kevin Millar or picking up Manny and Damon and Foulke and trading for Pedro and Schilling and Beckett and Sale. Even though a lot of us thought that the Lackey, Renteria, Sandoval and Hanley deals were dumb before the ink was dried, it was fun thinking about what those guys would do in the summer. The last couple of winters haven't been much fun. Like @NickEsasky said a few days ago, there is a segment of Sox fans who like to follow the team as if they were general managers and are looking to Excel as well as baseball-ref to determine whether the Sox have "won" the off-season. And dudes, I'm not going to yuck your yum. My least favorite part of my job are spreadsheets and I certainly don't want to think about those as I'm pondering my favorite baseball team.

For me, baseball--and sports in general--are supposed to be fun. There's a gamble you make when you sign a premium free agent: is he going to be Manny or Renteria? It's fun to gamble with someone else's money. But at some point, that guy might turn off the money spigot and try to get the most bang for his buck.

Put it this way, say you've got a new Porsche every other year for the last 20 years. It's expensive, it's always in the shop and since you live in New England, you can only really drive it half the year. But your family loves it. They love driving around in that Porsche with the top down and it's a real treat for everyone. Except you, because you're paying for everything. So instead of a Porsche, you buy a Subaru this. It's got all the same whistles and bells as your old Porsche, but it's a Subaru. It's not as sexy but it doesn't cost an arm and a leg and it gets you to where you need to go. Now no one wants to take a ride with Dad to grab takeout in the Subaru as they once did in the Porsche. I get why the Subaru is the better family car, but at the same time something is lost.

Oh, for sure, we mostly agree - and I'm saying this as someone who has been known to be more into the GMing side of things than the games on the field - and found little enjoyment in either lately! (I don't keep actual spreadsheets.) (I drive a Subaru, too.) During the Bloom years, as I said a few times, I always understood why the team was making those moves, but I didn't really enjoy them. And I think this post crystallized why a bit in saying something that I said a lot less articulately - it's one thing to make good value moves, but the Red Sox the last five years or so have seemed to an outsider, at least, to be focused on making those and only those. And yeah, those are a great way to supplement a team and I know for some of you that's your favorite part. But how many teams have succeeded in this league lately while also trying to win the "Most Surplus Value" title?

 

[BaseballJones]

The Dodgers spend on numerous big ticket free agents. Most other teams overspend on like one big ticket guy. But if everyone does that and Boston doesn't want to "overspend" for a FA, they're probably not going to get (m)any of them and will be forced to go one or two notches down. There always seems to be *somebody* out there willing to spend the kind of money Boston isn't.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

To be clear, I'm not advocating for a "JUST SPEND" approach, because that does sometimes lead you to The Full Cherington. But also, sometimes if you want a good player, you're going to be sacrificing somewhere else, and it seems like they don't really want to do that very much anymore.

Or maybe I'm wrong and they'll announce a Burnes trade and extension tomorrow. Boy would I be embarrassed if that happened! I sure would hate that!

 

[bosox188]

With all the contractual insanity that has happened in the last 2-3 years, I am reminded that John Henry amassed his fortune with great mathematical skill, and an ability to read markets better than others.

I have wondered at times, watching the Sox take a more passive, cautious approach, whether Henry has decided that this is simply an insane market, and perhaps a better time to hang back and let your opponents make mistakes. That will be frustrating for Sox fans as long as it keeps going, but man, a lot of these higher year/dollar contracts lately just seem a little more risky than usual. It's already not looking good for San Diego's "window".

Is the market truly all that insane though? I'm not so sure. Sometimes I wonder if we all too easily forget about the effects of inflation whenever there's discussion of record breaking contracts. Take the Ohtani contract, where the actual present value of the deal equates to $460M over 10 years. In 2001, ARod signed his 10 year $252M deal with the rangers, which equates to just under $442M in 2023 dollars. Not too far off, and considering that ARod couldn't pitch...

And if I stick in 2001 and pick out the highest paid pitcher that year, I see Kevin Brown earning $15.7M, or $27.53M in today's dollars. Nearly identical to the AAV that Yamamoto is getting, except Yamamoto is 25 and Kevin Brown at the time was 36. I realize it's an imperfect comparison because Yamamoto doesn't have an established MLB track record and his deal is much longer (of course age factors into that). But it just doesn't look like the apples-to-apples comparison of money on the top end is that much different today than it was 20+ years ago.

And I'm also not advocating for just blindly spending money on everything that moves. But if you think of the market as being insane and there's a built-in excuse with every player that goes by... "Oh that's crazy to give Yamamoto $300M when he hasn't pitched in the MLB" "Wow that's such a high AAV for Teoscar Hernandez and his high K rate" "$100M+ and 5+ years for Imanaga and his home run issues, no way" "6-7 years for Snell or Montgomery when they're already in their 30s?!" Then next year's FA class will all have similar ready-made excuses for why whatever deal they get sounds crazy, maybe even moreso. Are the Red Sox really going to be pointing up from the basement at teams like the Dodgers and Rangers, saying "look at those damn fools getting suckered into this crazy market!"

I do want to give the caveat that I'm waiting for the offseason to actually end before making any judgement.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

{gulp}

View attachment 76237

So he should hit 90 homers at Fenway... got it.

 

[Mike473]

Is the market truly all that insane though? I'm not so sure. Sometimes I wonder if we all too easily forget about the effects of inflation whenever there's discussion of record breaking contracts. Take the Ohtani contract, where the actual present value of the deal equates to $460M over 10 years. In 2001, ARod signed his 10 year $252M deal with the rangers, which equates to just under $442M in 2023 dollars. Not too far off, and considering that ARod couldn't pitch...

And if I stick in 2001 and pick out the highest paid pitcher that year, I see Kevin Brown earning $15.7M, or $27.53M in today's dollars. Nearly identical to the AAV that Yamamoto is getting, except Yamamoto is 25 and Kevin Brown at the time was 36. I realize it's an imperfect comparison because Yamamoto doesn't have an established MLB track record and his deal is much longer (of course age factors into that). But it just doesn't look like the apples-to-apples comparison of money on the top end is that much different today than it was 20+ years ago.

And I'm also not advocating for just blindly spending money on everything that moves. But if you think of the market as being insane and there's a built-in excuse with every player that goes by... "Oh that's crazy to give Yamamoto $300M when he hasn't pitched in the MLB" "Wow that's such a high AAV for Teoscar Hernandez and his high K rate" "$100M+ and 5+ years for Imanaga and his home run issues, no way" "6-7 years for Snell or Montgomery when they're already in their 30s?!" Then next year's FA class will all have similar ready-made excuses for why whatever deal they get sounds crazy, maybe even moreso. Are the Red Sox really going to be pointing up from the basement at teams like the Dodgers and Rangers, saying "look at those damn fools getting suckered into this crazy market!"

I do want to give the caveat that I'm waiting for the offseason to actually end before making any judgement.

Bottom line, I don't think ownership believes this team is worth investing in right now and we are going to hit rock bottom while waiting for the prospects to pan out. I think the writing is on the wall. Hopefully, I am totally wrong.

 

[RS2004foreever]

The thing is, if FSG was actually looking at selling the Sox, we would most likely know by now (or at least have heard reports of FSG putting out feelers for who could be interested in buying the team).. Not to mention all the other things that go into exploring a sale of a team/company

There is about 1.6 Billion in development around Fenway. I really doubt they are selling before they make their money from that.

 

[Harry Hooper]

If it was mentioned here recently, I missed it. Alex Speier noted that Red Sox seem unlikely to re-sign Paxton.

With the departure of Sale and the free agency of James Paxton (who multiple major league sources pegged as unlikely to return to the Sox), the team’s rotation is arguably thinner than it was in 2023. The club remains engaged on a variety of targets, but at least in free agency, the team doesn’t seem to be at the front of the line on the most prominent targets.

 

[GB5]

Maybe it’s because I am either impatient or losing trust in the front office but when the suggestion is they are pivoting towards 2025, but I just get the sense that we will be in this spot 365 days from now reading quotes from ownership to the effect of “we didn’t feel spending on “X” free agent was in the philosophical best interest of our development program” or some nonsense similar to that.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Really to this point, the only guy they didn’t sign that I’m sad they didn’t sign, is YY. They never had a shot at him it seems, but other than that I’m not mad they didn’t get any of the other FA signees.

 

[loneredseat]

Really to this point, the only guy they didn’t sign that I’m sad they didn’t sign, is YY. They never had a shot at him it seems, but other than that I’m not mad they didn’t get any of the other FA signees.

I'm totally with you on this. And I was nervous about him, being that he's never pitched in MLB.
I will, however be annoyed if they let Montgomery go by.

 

[zenax]

Baseball savant has him in the 2 percentile for fielding value. It’s a combination of being really slow and having a lousy arm.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/masataka-yoshida-807799

I realize that he doesn't have high ratings in fielding stats but I am curious whether Fenway has a greater/lesser/even effect on his ratings. I'll need to take a closer look at Baseball Savant's fielding stats to see if they show anything like that but first glance suggests no.
bb-ref shows batting stats broken down by opponent and by ballpark and pitching stats by home/away and by opponent. Why not the same for fielding?

 

[KingChre]

Really to this point, the only guy they didn’t sign that I’m sad they didn’t sign, is YY. They never had a shot at him it seems, but other than that I’m not mad they didn’t get any of the other FA signees.

I actually agree with this on a micro level. Macro-speaking this organization no longer deserves the benefit of the doubt. They aren't "cheap" per se but they are no longer willing to wield their financial advantage in a way that they have in the past.

For me personally, since the Mookie trade we've basically been in a loop where we are constantly building for the "next great Red Sox team" and just be patient because the real money will be spent "next year" when they are "really contenders."

I just have zero faith in ownership to tell the truth about any of their plans on the field, or really about anything. What scares me the most is their reputation around the league has seemingly degraded to the point where prominent free agents will only sign here on an overpay.

Winning will cure all of this, I just don't see how you can look at this organization without wearing rose colored glasses and think that that's on the immediate horizon. They might be great again in 2-3 years if and when their high impact talent from the minors arrives, but crossing my fingers and hoping for that is just so discouraging.

I've been out on FSG for awhile, I hope they sell the team to someone who is willing to invest the time and passion into the franchise that they did when they bought it. I don't think they are bad owners, quite the contrary in fact, but that organization is so important to the region, it can't be run publicly like just another company in the portfolio.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

I’m not saying I’m pro FSG, but other than YY, what other FA should they have signed? Ohtani, sure, but again - Dodgers were likely always the plan.

Now, if the offseason finishes and there is nothing else beyond Giolito, O’Neil and a trade for Grissom, then yeah, I’ll be pissed, even though I like those moves. It’s not like there is a Manny out there to sign in FA. I wanted no part of Teo on a 3-4 year deal. I’d much rather them sign Soler.

If they trade for Luzardo, or Cease or similar or signed JM or Snell, then I think they did perfectly fine this offseason.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I’m not saying I’m pro FSG, but other than YY, what other FA should they have signed? Ohtani, sure, but again - Dodgers were likely always the plan.

Now, if the offseason finishes and there is nothing else beyond Giolito, O’Neil and a trade for Grissom, then yeah, I’ll be pissed, even though I like those moves. It’s not like there is a Manny out there to sign in FA. I wanted no part of Teo on a 3-4 year deal. I’d much rather them sign Soler.

If they trade for Luzardo, or Cease or similar or signed JM or Snell, then I think they did perfectly fine this offseason.

I don’t think people realize how much a Luzardo / Cease trade is going to hurt.

Those trades will not be liked by this board. I can promise that.

I’d actually rather them go the other way and trade Pivetta (who I think has intense value given his second half and salary), Kenley, and Martin.

2024 isn’t going to be the year if they are refusing to give out anything over 2 years.

Giving up one of Roman, Mayer, or Teel, who are all guys a stones throw away from the bigs (at premium positions), with that type of back drop would be catastrophic in my opinion.

 

[johnnywayback]

I don’t think people realize how much a Luzardo / Cease trade is going to hurt.

Those trades will not be liked by this board. I can promise that.

I’d actually rather them go the other way and trade Pivetta (who I think has intense value given his second half and salary), Kenley, and Martin.

2024 isn’t going to be the year if they are refusing to give out anything over 2 years.

Giving up one of Roman, Mayer, or Teel, who are all guys a stones throw away from the bigs (at premium positions), with that type of back drop would be catastrophic in my opinion.

I think I agree with this. If they're not prepared to spend up to, let alone over, the luxury tax, they're clearly not prioritizing competing for a championship in 2024. They're not going to be one pitcher away from winning it all. I don't agree with that strategy, but if that's the path they're choosing, it makes no sense to cash in close-to-the-majors prospects for a guy who might not be here when ownership perceives the championship window to finally be open.

 

[jbupstate]

I think I agree with this. If they're not prepared to spend up to, let alone over, the luxury tax, they're clearly not prioritizing competing for a championship in 2024. They're not going to be one pitcher away from winning it all. I don't agree with that strategy, but if that's the path they're choosing, it makes no sense to cash in close-to-the-majors prospects for a guy who might not be here when ownership perceives the championship window to finally be open.

If they don’t spend up to or over tax they are not committed to winning in 2024? Followed by they are not one pitcher away?

Who could they pay for that wins a championship in 2024? Black checks.

 

[HfxBob]

Really to this point, the only guy they didn’t sign that I’m sad they didn’t sign, is YY. They never had a shot at him it seems, but other than that I’m not mad they didn’t get any of the other FA signees.

I on the other hand am utterly baffled that anyone thinks Gray wouldn't have been a wonderful acquisition for the Red Sox. The feeling seems to be that St. Louis was his destination of preference. That may be so, but it doesn't mean he wouldn't have been a huge upgrade at an extremely reasonable contract length and AAV. If you don't think our rotation looks a lot better with Sonny Gray, I'm not really sure what you're looking at.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don’t think people realize how much a Luzardo / Cease trade is going to hurt.

Those trades will not be liked by this board. I can promise that.

I’d actually rather them go the other way and trade Pivetta (who I think has intense value given his second half and salary), Kenley, and Martin.

2024 isn’t going to be the year if they are refusing to give out anything over 2 years.

Giving up one of Roman, Mayer, or Teel, who are all guys a stones throw away from the bigs (at premium positions), with that type of back drop would be catastrophic in my opinion.

Perhaps. I really do think that they're one starting pitcher (and maybe Turner) away from being a playoff contender and I'm 100% of the belief that once you get there it's a crap shoot. And I do believe that that one starting pitcher could be any of the 4 remaining guys. Or some sort of trade that wouldn't hurt as much but would have them eating a massive salary dump like the Milwaukee deal in which they absorb Yellich's full salary.
But if you're correct, then they should figure out how to hold onto those top three guys (and even Bleis, Rafaela, Winkleman and Perales) but leverage some of the middle infield excess to find pitchers on teams that may have 4-5 years remaining on ML timelines but aren't looking like top rotation guys currently. Types that are in other teams rotations but are relatively fungilble. Porcello being a good example of a guy that wasn't really great but was had for a pretty good trade value and contributed beyond his expectations. Granted, there'd likely be a lot of luck here and potential loss but if they're looking 2-3 years down the road rather than in '24. Maybe a guy like Luis Medina from the A's could be had for a pittance? I dunno... really just not sure what sort of plan there'd be if they're not thinking they can win in '24. Again, I think they can with 1 more SP and Turner.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

2024 isn’t going to be the year if they are refusing to give out anything over 2 years.

2025 isn't going to be the year if they are refusing to give out anywhere over 2 years
With a better pitching class next season, the disappointment will be even greater as the Sox are tied to every single one of them.

 

[greenmountains]

I on the other hand am utterly baffled that anyone thinks Gray wouldn't have been a wonderful acquisition for the Red Sox. The feeling seems to be that St. Louis was his destination of preference. That may be so, but it doesn't mean he wouldn't have been a huge upgrade at an extremely reasonable contract length and AAV. If you don't think our rotation looks a lot better with Sonny Gray, I'm not really sure what you're looking at.

Didn't Sonny Gray go from Oakland to NYY....and struggle his ass off? He looked like a #2 floor when the Yankees traded for him and was out of town within 1 1/2 years. Some can't handle the big market pressure. Sonny Gray appears to be that guy who couldn't handle the big lights (at least in NY). St Louis is the perfect home as it's low key, but smart and passionate baseball town. Sonny Gray would have been eaten up (again) in NY, Philly, Boston.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I on the other hand am utterly baffled that anyone thinks Gray wouldn't have been a wonderful acquisition for the Red Sox. The feeling seems to be that St. Louis was his destination of preference. That may be so, but it doesn't mean he wouldn't have been a huge upgrade at an extremely reasonable contract length and AAV. If you don't think our rotation looks a lot better with Sonny Gray, I'm not really sure what you're looking at.

Well, "the feeling" seems to be that way because that's what he said. To say that AND sign early is a pretty good indication that it's true.

Gray says St. Louis was at the top of his wish list this offseason. “I wanted to be a Cardinal,” he said early in his introductory press conference Monday evening.
“Me and my family, we truly wanted to be here,” said Gray. “We’re glad that it worked out, and we get to be here. Very, very excited to be a Cardinal.”

https://news.yahoo.com/wanted-cardinal-sonny-gray-joins-163012915.html#:~:text=Gray says St.,be here,” said Gray.

And maybe he would have been a huge upgrade, but his time with the Yankees was unimpressive. Maybe he isn't a good fit for the AL East.

 

[HfxBob]

Well, "the feeling" seems to be that way because that's what he said. To say that AND sign early is a pretty good indication that it's true.



https://news.yahoo.com/wanted-cardinal-sonny-gray-joins-163012915.html#:~:text=Gray says St.,be here,” said Gray.

And maybe he would have been a huge upgrade, but his time with the Yankees was unimpressive. Maybe he isn't a good fit for the AL East.

Gray said the Yankees insisted on having him throw more sliders and it affected his pitching.

He's pitched great everywhere else, so it seems credible, unless you buy into the "doesn't like the bright lights" narrative.

It just feels like a lot of Sox fans are finding reasons to approve of the non-acquisition of any of the higher-credentialed, higher-priced starting pitchers. And I think we're already prepared for the likelihood that Snell, Montgomery and Imanaga aren't coming to Boston either.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I suspect that if you really want to sign a guy, it helps to aggressively pursue them and sell them on the idea of joining the team (sounds like they did this with Giolito). There is a lot reported about how the Sox are lurking on guys, which may be smart, but it doesn’t suggest an extreme level of interest by the team on any individual player, so it’s probably no surprise that most players don’t seem overly interested in joining the Sox either.

I don’t know if the Sox were really gung ho about Gray, Lugo, Rodriguez, Hernandez, etc. but there was a lot reported about how they told players they were interested if so and so happened first, needed to wait on this, etc etc- suggests (to me at least), that they weren’t prioritizing the players they were talking to and those players went to organizations that were.

 

[Steve Dillard]

This is an extended rebuild, with the pool of minors still about 2-3 years away from contributing in a meaningful manner. I'm fine with them actually rebuilding, e.g., Sale for Grissom, rather than trying to piece together the bridge with overcommitting for B- level free agents like Trevor Story, or, in this case, Snell or Montgomery. I hope Breslow is saving his money for a guy who is left without a chair as we get to spring training, and for the mid-season acquisition of a FA to be, who they can then commit to with an extension. The position players are at least as decent as last year, with O'Neill substituted for Duval, a healthy Story bettering the crap at SS last year, and Grissom bettering the crap at 2B last year. A better year 2 from Yoshida will replace Verdugo's offense, and let's see where Abreu/Duran/Rafaela actual talent level lies.

For pitching, we've bettered the bullpen, which, in today's game, is key, especially if we have a weaker starting group.

I am not tied to any fan deadline of getting something in place by Fanfest, or even for the season start. As Marzano correctly said, with the expanded playoffs a team needs only be respectable by June. Where I initially thought Bloom would use the first couple of months to "fill out the team," (right Field 2021), he never did. Ant that was before getting to the later trade deadline, where, at that point, the team was failing, and he never sold.

So, I can wait for Breslow to pick the team up to May, without overpaying (in length of contract) for OK talent. But if it starts to drag without any movement, I'll start to become concerned.

TLDR, let's see how the starter market shakes out without overpaying for Snell/Montgomery/etc., and not have too much pressure even if season starts with gaps in rotation. Compared to the "rebuild" the past 4 years, of stopgap question-marks (Wacha/Kluber/Paxton), they are closer to the real prospects in the minors coming up (Teel/Mayer/Anthony) and possibly mid-season trade for Burnes/Cease or the like

 

[HfxBob]

I suspect that if you really want to sign a guy, it helps to aggressively pursue them and sell them on the idea of joining the team (sounds like they did this with Giolito). There is a lot reported about how the Sox are lurking on guys, which may be smart, but it doesn’t suggest an extreme level of interest by the team on any individual player, so it’s probably no surprise that most players don’t seem overly interested in joining the Sox either.

I don’t know if the Sox were really gung ho about Gray, Lugo, Rodriguez, Hernandez, etc. but there was a lot reported about how they told players they were interested if so and so happened first, needed to wait on this, etc etc- suggests (to me at least), that they weren’t prioritizing the players they were talking to and those players went to organizations that were.

And that's where some of these rumors about the Sox acting like a small-market team are coming from. Because they kind of are, it appears.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Gray said the Yankees insisted on having him throw more sliders and it affected his pitching.

He's pitched great everywhere else, so it seems credible, unless you buy into the "doesn't like the bright lights" narrative.

It just feels like a lot of Sox fans are finding reasons to approve of the non-acquisition of any of the higher-credentialed, higher-priced starting pitchers. And I think we're already prepared for the likelihood that Snell, Montgomery and Imanaga aren't coming to Boston either.

Personally, I'm not finding a reason to approve anything, just responding to your comments about Gray.
If you're going to take him at his word about his time with the Yankees, than you should take him at his word about St. Louis. He wanted to go there, he signed quickly, so this seems to be a weird discussion to have.
And I do buy into the "doesn't like the bright lights" narrative for some players. One of our Yankee fans might have better perspective on if that applies to Gray

 

[HfxBob]

Personally, I'm not finding a reason to approve anything, just responding to your comments about Gray.
If you're going to take him at his word about his time with the Yankees, than you should take him at his word about St. Louis. He wanted to go there, he signed quickly, so this seems to be a weird discussion to have.

The discussion started with "I don't really miss any of the guys we didn't sign". That's what I was disagreeing with. If you think that's weird, fine.

 

[jon abbey]

And I do buy into the "doesn't like the bright lights" narrative for some players. One of our Yankee fans might have better perspective on if that applies to Gray

I think it's a moot point since he wanted to go to STL anyway, but Gray in NY was more complicated than 'he can't handle the AL East'. He had issues meshing with Gary Sanchez but also he kind of inexplicably stopped being able to pitch at Yankee Stadium in the second year (2018) of his two years in NY, with a 6.98 ERA in the Bronx (59.1 innings) and a 3.17 ERA on the road (71 innings).

Also, all of that was a long time ago, not sure how much 2017/2018 performance is relevant to 2024 and beyond.

 

[CR67dream]

And that's where some of these rumors about the Sox acting like a small-market team are coming from. Because they kind of are, it appears.

Maybe it appears that way to you and others, but choosing not to sign individual players who do not want to be here, or more accurately with Gray, want to be somewhere else, doesn't signal anything of the kind. I'll also say that all the players the Sox have passed on have downside as well as upside. Not a great class.

But really, the bottom line is that what I quoted may be accurate in 6 weeks or so if nothing changes. As of now, the "small market" assertions aren't supportable, though lord knows some will try. I'd rather not see this place get bogged down in days and days unnecessary negativity every time a player signs somewhere else in the meantime.