Offseason rumors
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It would be nice if we could have an amicable parting for once, without the there needing to be a moral failing on the player's part to justify the trade.
No one but a member of the Boston sports media gives a rotten fig for the hurt feelings of members of the Boston sports media.
Puppy-killers must be here no morez!!!!
Strongly agree - and I like Mayer.
But for me Anthony is an “only if another team is desperate“ move (ie Kirby, George).
Though the team has Story (SS) and now Grissom (2b). Not to mention Yorke, Rafaela, Meidroth, Cespedes and Zanatello. It’s easier to stomach moving a MI in A+/AA (as in hasn’t yet produced at AA) than Anthony as the corner OF bat or Teel at C.
They “need” controllable MLB starting pitching, so if Mayer can get you another Bello, that’s the move I’d make. I don’t mean “give him away” and there are maybe 3 or 4 guys I’d advocate moving him for that have even been whispered as available (Valdez, Cease, Luzardo, Gilbert).
But Anthony I’d only even consider for Gilbert of those, and I‘m not certain I’d do it (I’d at least try for Kirby first). Teel I’d probably ultimately move for Valdez, Gilbert and I think Luzardo, but the injuries there scare me enough that I admittedly waffle on it.
If Teel is seen as a legitimate all-around catcher, that's a more scarce commodity than potential middle infielders = keep him.
Two way catchers are rarer than top of the rotation starters. There's a handful of players I'd trade Teel for.
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1741321130772701525?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA
Cotillo tweeting in conversation with a fan account that the Sox “are going to move” Kenley Jansen.
Cotillo tweeting in conversation with a fan account that the Sox “are going to move” Kenley Jansen.
Well, if he's right, either wait until Hader signs and increase the pool ... or send him sooner to a team that wouldn't be in the Hader talks
I‘ve been thinking of the above for a while.
One of the deals I can see making sense for both sides (and that I think both would consider) is a Duran for Logan T Allen swap in Cleveland.
There is zero chance Williams is available at all, and I really don’t think the Fightin’ Jake Taylors would deal Bibee for Mayer. Conversely, I’m not dealing Mayer for Allen, clearly. But I could see them meeting in the middle there.
Allen is not necessarily a SP1 or SP2 candidate in my opinion (too many walks, not elite enough stuff in his profile for me to project more) but I also think he’s a good bet to be an SP3/4. He’s kind of like another version of Crawford. That’s about what I think Duran types could return (same for a Yorke + Bleis package - but Cleveland already has Giménez, Rocchio is their best prospect and they have a more advanced version of Bleis in Valera).
BTV checks this out, fwiw, and calls it a minor overpay by Boston. But for 5 years of control of someone that isn’t Bello but is another version of Crawford sounds about right for Duran.
Sign Hernandez for LF and bank on Bello, Crawford and Allen in the rotation while Breslow builds up the upper minors pitching - I don’t mind that at all.
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1741488098956005377?s=46&t=7XazH1NKZP26a4WUZikbkQ
According to a baseball source, the Red Sox have told at least one free agent target that they need to shed more payroll before pursuing him as aggressively as they want to.
According to a baseball source, the Red Sox have told at least one free agent target that they need to shed more payroll before pursuing him as aggressively as they want to.
This basically has to mean Jansen, right? Only other players north of $10mn luxury tax number are Devers, Story, and Yoshida…
After finishing last year roughly $70 million behind Texas, San Diego, and Philadelphia it’s clear the payroll isn’t going to catch up to their level. Avoiding long term contracts only makes sense if you eventually spend the money on someone else.
The obvious line of thinking is Jansen frees up enough then for Montgomery.
Maybe they are trying to stay under the tax another season? The repeater penalties get pretty steep and more than just money I think (correct me if I’m wrong here), if they want to delay the start of a period of going over.
Maybe they are trying to stay under the tax another season? The repeater penalties get pretty steep and more than just money I think (correct me if I’m wrong here), if they want to delay the start of a period of going over.
If they’re at roughly $200M right now, there’s not one person on the open market that should push them over or near the threshold. You’d need to add at least two, right?
Unless you add Monty or someone at lower years but higher average?
Unless you add Monty or someone at lower years but higher average?
We don't know the time table here, this could have been said before the Sale trade. The Sale deal only sheds about $10M, but perhaps that puts them where they need to be for this other signing.
It seems quite possible that the Red Sox threshold is not the same as the one that would push them over the tax, no?
Possibly. It's also likely that they don't have just one acquisition in mind. I'm still thinking the payroll will at least come close to the tax threshold. But something lower is certainly in play.
That’s got to be Jensen they’ve got in mind (doubt they’d get much for Story or Yoshida at this point without subsidizing heavily). I guess Martin’s 7.5M could go too if they like Houck to slide into that role and Whitlock to return to form back in the bp.
From Cotillo’s article related to that tweet:
Optimistic - you are leaving enough under the line for a big add at the deadline if the season plays out that way.
If all true, pessimistic view - guess we have FSG’s valuation per year on the Sox nowadays. :|
Optimistic - you are leaving enough under the line for a big add at the deadline if the season plays out that way.
Maybe that’s the convo with Paxton. “We’re going to sign Hernandez and we want you as well. To meet your number though, we need to shed xx amount and stay under the threshold.”
Or as mentioned above, the Red Sox threshold is mandated lower.
Or as mentioned above, the Red Sox threshold is mandated lower.
How far under water is Jansen contract? Jansen at 1/16 doesn't seem too terrible to me, a bit of an overpay but maybe he's worth at least 1/12? Oddly, he had his highest average FB velocity of his career in 2023, though his K-rate has been trending down.
Yoshida also is under water to some degree I assume, I wonder if he's a trade option.
Yoshida also is under water to some degree I assume, I wonder if he's a trade option.
At the least, "please wait while we shed some more salary" is a great cover story to buy some time. Any player's agent would want a team like the Sox still in the bidding for a client.
Feel a bit bad for Bloom if ownership hamstrung him from getting close to the threshold.
I get this thought, and I am over being the front office apologist that a lot here probably think I am, BUT, sometime in the next 5 years they will "HOPEFULLY" have to figure out how to pay Anthony, Tell, Mayer, Monegro and Wikelman.
I can see a world where short money makes sense, but I am also not sold on wanting to watch Montgomery or Snell pitching for them when they are 37 years old, either.
Not exciting but my thought as well. As soon as I saw they saved 10 million on the Sale trade I figured that was going straight to Paxton.
Oh lord, I hope the conversation is with Montgomery or Snell and not Paxton. They gotta clear out space to sign Paxton??
Also curious where these leaks are coming from. As Lou says below.
View: https://twitter.com/loumerloni/status/1741494192533041278?s=46
One thing to consider for this team is age. If Jansen were to be dealt, Martin (an obvious trade deadline chip) will be the oldest on the roster by seven years. A Paxton signing would change that, of course, but with Duvall and Turner basically gone at this point they're clearly making a move to a younger roster ahead of the next influx from the minors.
They are currently 46 mil under the tax threshold. If they need to clear payroll to get both Hernandez and Paxton, that's a bad sign.
I haven't heard Breslow speak on this, but I'd surprised if he's a fan of having an exclusive DH that isn't an Ortiz-caliber hitter. Yoshida's price tag is a bit steep considering this type of role, as well.
Chris Taylor is slated to play LF in LA and isn't a plus defender, like Yoshida. Would the Dodgers be interested in re-uniting Yoshida with Ohtani and Yamamoto? Doing so would possibly help with Yamamoto's acclimation and be a cool story.
Cross posting this from the Sale thread concerning Paxton.
I might be on board if we were looking for a 4-5 type pitcher vs a top of the rotation type, but this team needs the latter and preferably a guy that you hope can pitch 160 + innings. I honestly don't see that from Paxton at this point.
Is this right? Red Sox payroll has them at 201.01… or roughly 36 under.
My hope would be that the person in question is Teoscar and the reason is they are in play on Snell.
Let’s see. There is just so much smoke around this subject to ignore though.
The Sox prospects podcast mentioned, that if you were to think about trading Sale and half of his contract for Grissom and Paxton, you would probably do that, correct. When it’s framed like that it makes perfect sense to me at least
I completely agree. If they want to burn 10 million on Paxton as a 5, so be it, but if their 2 SP "additions" are Giolito and a returning Paxton, color me underwhelmed.
However I'm encouraged by recent reports of them entertaining trading for cost-controlled young pitching. If they trade for someone in addition to the Giolito & (hypothetical) Paxton signings, I would be cautiously optimistic about their depth.
Yoshida doesn't have to be a DH exclusively. He's not the best OF on the roster, but he can continue to learn the short LF in Fenway and serve as part of an OF rotation and DH rotation that allows others "partial" days off while keeping bench players in the mix.
Yes for 27 million I would rather have Paxton and Grissom than Sale. Not to mention the additional 5 years of control on Grissom.
I just hope this in addition to acquiring another front-end starter.
I’m calling BS on all of this. Not a single injury of his could be quantified by any reasonable person as ‘careless’. He got hurt throwing a bullpen during the lockout without access to team trainers. How was that his fault? Are we really going to call hitting a pothole and falling off his bike reckless now? That’s a normal activity, in absolutely no way could that be spun as risky behavior. If they thought it violated his contract (it clearly doesn’t) then they could have terminated the deal right then.
Sale accepted the deal because he can go there and win immediately and they also train in Florida, just a little bit further from his home than Fort Myers is. Meanwhile, the writing is on the wall that the Red Sox don’t plan on contending any time soon.
I think there's room to trade for someone in addition to Giolito AND sign for someone who might be more durable than Paxton.
FA TBD
Bello
Giolito
Trade Acquisition TBD
Crawford/Houck/Pivetta/Whitlock with the idea that one of these is likely moved as part of the trade acquisition
This feels spot on to me.
I just don’t know who the young cost controlled starter is. The Braves just gave up a much better version of Rafaela for a 35 year old Chris Sale.
The cost will be out of this world
Do we know yet that Grissom is a much better version of Rafaela? The Braves also got $17M back in that deal. These details also matter.
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