Offseason rumors

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simplicio

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Speier apparently reports that the Sox checked in with the Mariners about trading for starters and got turned down.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/red-sox-trade-rumors-mariners-starting-pitchers.html

Feels like a "no for now" more than a dead end.
We discussed the Speier reporting earlier, but the mlbtr writeup includes additional info that makes it sound like the Ms are rebuffing everyone and it's not specific to the Sox.

As they should. It makes no sense for them to trade their young guys before the big name FA come off the board, especially if Snell's reported interest is mutual and they're targeting him for themselves.
 

chrisfont9

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We discussed the Speier reporting earlier, but the mlbtr writeup includes additional info that makes it sound like the Ms are rebuffing everyone and it's not specific to the Sox.

As they should. It makes no sense for them to trade their young guys before the big name FA come off the board, especially if Snell's reported interest is mutual and they're targeting him for themselves.
Oh, OK, thanks. I went looking for some earlier discussion and didn't see it. Guess I scrolled too quickly.
 

YTF

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I would actually love to see Houck pushed into some closing duties next year if Jansen is out at all or if he's pitched two days in a row and needs a third day close game closed out and he's unavailable.
We'll have to see if he winds up in the rotation or not. It wouldn't be bad to see Whitlock get similar opportunities if get's back on track either.
 

Marciano490

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Translation -

In the last hour, the Yankees just offered Yamamoto 9 years at 304 million, we’ll see if he signs the contract.
 

Jimbodandy

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They're all individuals. Also the weather/climate of the east coast is a lot more like Japan's. I don't fully get the whole flying time thing -- how often are they going back and forth anyway?
And people keep assuming that you're adding 6+ hours to the flight, coming from Boston vs. LA. It's more like 3-4. I doubt that flying 14-15 hours first class is a deal-breaker, when 11 hours in first class isn't.
 

BaseballJones

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Translation -

In the last hour, the Yankees just offered Yamamoto 9 years at 304 million, we’ll see if he signs the contract.
That's a contract the Sox better top, I'll just say that. Five years ago that would have seemed utterly insane, but right now that's a price they have to be 100% in on.
 

PedroisGod

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Interesting timing for that Baerga/Yankees report to come out on the day the Sox are meeting with Yamamoto. Seems like it'd be a great way to get the Sox to beat that offer.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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We are complaining that the Sox may not top 9/$304? I don’t recall anyone suggesting such a deal even two weeks ago. I get that circumstances change, but come on now…
 

jon abbey

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Being the clear ace of the staff might appeal to him, which he doesn't get with the Yankees.
This fact occurred to me a few days ago (that Yamamoto would slot it at #2 to start with NYY, his other chief pursuers he'd be expected to be the #1 from day 1), but I have no idea if this helps or hurts NYY. I would think it helps them, somewhat less pressure but the same opportunity to shine, but it really depends on the individual, I think.
 

johnnywayback

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I'd match that contract, too, but this is likely to go the way Ohtani's negotiations went: He'll pick a team and then the team will give him whatever contract he wants (within some semblance of reason). It's not going to be a pure bidding process where everybody gets a chance to raise.
 

E5 Yaz

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I, for one, can wait for the feeding frenzy over the next 24-36 hours after he signs
 

TomRicardo

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We are complaining that the Sox may not top 9/$304? I don’t recall anyone suggesting such a deal even two weeks ago. I get that circumstances change, but come on now…
If the alternative is spending $160M for Jordan freaking Montgomery and his 4.01 xFIP, I'd much rather see us go 10/$330M.
Absolutely. We are in the most competitive division we have been in the wild card era and we literally have no rotation. We have Bello, the ghost of all star past with Sale, and the broken toy bin of Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, and Pivetta. Those six almost get you 700 IP! You can't run a successful bullpen if you are asking the bullpen to give you 700+ IP. Snell and Montgomery are above average arms that don't eat innings. They are the exact opposite of what this team needs.
 

Devizier

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The thing about Imanaga re: Kikuchi is that Kikuchi would have been the Red Sox's best pitcher by fWAR last year.

Of course, Toronto wasn't the team that signed him out of Japan.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Did Yamamoto meet with all the teams yet? I thought that his meeting with the Sox was today? Athletic write Jen McCaffrey wrote this yesterday: "Yet on Tuesday, there was finally a smidge of news on the Red Sox front. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that Yamamoto will meet with the Red Sox in the coming days."

If he decided now and the Sox met with him either yesterday or today; I guess we can surmise that it didn't really go very well.
 

jon abbey

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That Baerga tweet just claims that NYY was offering him that, not that he would accept it.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Would it shock anyone at all for Dave to say whatever 15/430 with opt outs every year after year 5?

He’s capable of that
 

BigSoxFan

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Gotta hand it to Yamamoto. Dude is being thorough. I would go north of that rumored Yankees offer by $15-20M without blinking.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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If the alternative is spending $160M for Jordan freaking Montgomery and his 4.01 xFIP, I'd much rather see us go 10/$330M.
Is even that number really bad? He'd be (by xFIP) one of the best pitchers on the team. Of course he's no Nick Pivetta (3.55 xFIP, which was about .25 of a run better than Sale's and it seems most of the board can't wait to get rid of Pivetta).

Because Montgomery's 4.01xFIP was better than Bello's (4.02); Houck's (4.07); Crawford's (4.32) and close to Paxton's (3.98) and Eovalid (3.96). Seeing as to how he's the only one of those starters that also started 30 games (and has done it for the last 3 years) while several have of course never done it in their career to this point (obviously they're younger) or get hurt every year, I'd take 30 starts of lets just say his career ERA in NY (3.94) and be really damn happy.

Though I will say that is where I think most of Montgomery's value would come (for this team, specifically). He's a really good bet to give them 30 games of good pitching (116 Career ERA+; a 109 ERA+ pitching in the AL East). The Red Sox desperately need someone else other than Brayan Bello who can reasonably be projected to give them 165ip or more of "average to good" which, again, they've had two of in the past three years (Eovaldi once and Pivetta once).

I'd pay the man what Boras wants (and then still bid out the nose for Yamamoto).
 

simplicio

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Snell and Montgomery are above average arms that don't eat innings. They are the exact opposite of what this team needs.
Over the past 3 years Montgomery has pitched the 17th most innings in baseball. Over the past 2 it's 13th. His post-2020 career is 100% an innings eater profile.

Snell you're definitely correct about.
 

moondog80

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Gotta hand it to Yamamoto. Dude is being thorough. I would go north of that rumored Yankees offer by $15-20M without blinking.
That would be the biggest contract for a pitcher in MLB history. For a guy with 0 MLB innings.

I’m out. The hype is out of control. I want them to spend, but there are better ways than this.
 

jon abbey

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The buzz on Snell has been that he wants $200M+ and is only considering West Coast teams, obviously I have no real idea if either or both of those things are true but I've seen them a lot.
 

brandonchristensen

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The Yankees are the worst case scenario.

The Dodgers the second worst, though likely have the best chance with their full court press with the team. Hard to turn that down.

Sox just don’t seem like the Sox of the early 2000s. The lack of desperation certainly helps. Just never fun to not have fun things to look forward to.
 

kazuneko

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Yeah, I think the bigger thing is that people are starting to realize that Yamamoto to Boston isn't happening, pretty much regardless of what Boston offers him in terms of dollars, because other teams can come close enough and offer more in terms of appeal if there is any consideration beyond $1 more.

Now it's a question of comparing Imanaga to other guys that are ALSO multiple tiers below Yamamoto.

So for those whom have seen him play a lot (which it sounds like @Tokyo Sox and @kazuneko) we're trying to figure out where does he fit in with regards to a lesser extent Snell and Montgomery and more about Stroman, Giolito, Wacha, Ryu, Flaherty and the like. Nothing at all about where he fits in relative to Yamamoto. He's clearly not as good. It also seems more and more clear that the Sox aren't in a position in terms of the the MLB roster to land someone of that level (and I think they closest they can come is blowing people out of the water for a good but not great Montgomery).
Imanaga is intriguing because he has great stuff, but he’s also always struggled with giving up too many long balls. And he is 30 years old. I think he’d be a much better fit for Citi Field and the Mets than the Sox and Fenway.
I mean, as I emphasized before, you’d be hard pressed to find any Japanese player whose HR rates haven’t at least doubled when they came to America. The only one I’ve been able to identify is Nomo and not only is he from a pretty different era his HR rates rates also went up considerably (from .7 to 1.1).
Typically Imanaga’s fastball is the culprit, which is interesting because it’s a tough one for hitters to hit (which is why he relies on it so much). The problem is when he finds too much of the plate with it, which happens more than you’d like, the ball goes a long way. And let’s remember this is in Japan in the middle of a modern deadball era (in the 23’ season Kensuke Kondoh led the Pacific League with 26 HRs).
How would he look with a much higher HR rate? Well, I think the answer can be found in his own stats. In 2018, he had his second highest strikeout rate, but also his highest HR/rate (1.9, which is not even double his career rate of 1.0). The results were a 4-11 record and a 6.80 ERA. I mean, if Breslow can make this guy an effective major leaguer he’d deserve a ton of credit.
But he’s basically a project (and a pretty intriguing one) but that project is gonna cost some team a $100 million. Way too risky..

Edit: Interestingly Matsuzaka (who oddly enough I hadn’t checked) didn’t have as much of an increase in HR/9 as most Japanese pitchers, only going from .7 to 1.0 when he transitioned to the majors from Japan.
 
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brandonchristensen

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You'll get Marcus Storman and you'll like it ... or else!!!
Even that feels like it could be a pipe dream. The kids from the Verdugo trade will fill out the rest of our pitching holes and that’ll be that.

But yeah. Dice-K wasn’t great. But he added a global superstar and we won the first year he was here. That kind of splashy signing has to help morale compared to what we have seen the last few years at the deadline where nothing is done either way and the team treads to the finish line.

Not my money. They’re all billionaires. Go big.
 

Ronnie_Dobbs

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They're all individuals. Also the weather/climate of the east coast is a lot more like Japan's. I don't fully get the whole flying time thing -- how often are they going back and forth anyway?
I seem to recall Dice-K having a bunch of 1st class airline tix from Boston-Tokyo each year as part of his contract...
Get her done Theo!
 

BornToRun

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So $39M per or more?
Seems like that’s the price of doing business these days and I think you need to play ball at that number if you really think he’s a top of the rotation starter. Obviously we don’t really know how the FO views him but if they think he’s that guy and they want him, then I don’t see much of an option.
 

chrisfont9

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If the Yankees indeed offer 9/304, it might take 10/350 to sway him our way. The million dollar question is he worth it? Might be in this situation.
The Yankees have so many more giant commitments than the Sox, even before they do Gerrit Cole's next contract and try to retain Soto. I'm sure they can afford to do more, but it will come with the CBT taxes on the end. So in the money battle, the Sox should be willing to top their offer.

For example, in 2027 they have Judge ($40m), Cole (currently $36 but an opt-out probably ups that), Stanton (29), and Rodon (27). That's $118 for four players, and guessing another $35-40 for Soto. Sox are at $84m for Devers, Story (expiring), Whitlock and Yoshida (expiring), then down to $43m.
 
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simplicio

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If the Yankees indeed offer 9/304, it might take 10/350 to sway him our way. The million dollar question is he worth it? Might be in this situation.
By the time you're at that kind of number I think you see if you can stretch in to 12 years to knock down the AAV some. Offer opt outs at age 30 and 35, why not.
 

jon abbey

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Gerrit Cole's next contract
His opt-out is confusing people, but assuming he stays healthy and opts out after the season, NY can add 1/36 and keep him, as negotiated in the original deal.

So he is on a 5/180 deal right now (years remaining) and will presumably be on a 5/180 deal with NY going into 2025 also, there's no uncertainty here really.
 

PedroisGod

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Seems like that’s the price of doing business these days and I think you need to play ball at that number if you really think he’s a top of the rotation starter. Obviously we don’t really know how the FO views him but if they think he’s that guy and they want him, then I don’t see much of an option.
Yup. The Sox will need an ace, whether it’s this year or next. Unless you think you have an ace in the organization already (I don’t), the options are to trade for a cost controlled ace type (Gilbert, Luzardo, Kirby) and you’re probably giving up Mayer or Anthony, or you’re looking at one of the FA options next year, all of whom will command a similar AAV and will all be at least 4-5 years older than Yamamoto *and* will most likely require a draft pick as they’ll probably have a QO attached (except for Burnes, most likely).

So yeah, if they think Yamamoto is the guy they have to go all out financially.

Also, I know there are health issues, but if they can get Woodruff on a similar deal as what Mahle just got, they should absolutely do that. He represents the pitcher who has the most potential to be an ace at the lowest price.
 
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