It would absolutely take more but if reports of them looking to shed salary are true, coupled with concerns about his maturity (PEDs, motorcycles, etc), they might consider moving him. I’d love that bat and GG defense.
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I wonder what he anticipated? My guess is they figured 250/10 or so would blow away the competition for Yamamoto, and by the time it became clear that this wouldn't be the case, their backup plans were off the table.
Fangraphs contract projections said 175/7, so it would have been a reasonable enough plan. Nobody thought $325.
Or maybe the cost of trading for young pitching was/is much higher than it's been in the past?
It’s a fair point but it’s Feb 13 and players are starting to report to Spring Training. If has a clear path to playing time with another team obviously we aren’t going to win his services. Absent that, being the primary backup for a bunch of unproven and/or injury-prone guys in a ballpark that suits your hitting profile isn’t the worst backup plan.
The path to more AB’s is what it always is- injuries and ineffectiveness . Last years team gave 500+ AB’s to OF not on the opening day roster, and that was with a reasonably healthy OF (Duvall was the only player who missed significant time). The OF/DH spots are only crowded if the team is completely locked in to Abreu and Duran as major league players, which could be the case, but the fact that they supposedly are interested in adding another bat suggests they believe there’s enough AB’s to go around.
My guess is the cost of pitching? Perhaps how much some of the outfield pieces are worth?
Objectively the team is not likely to compete for a playoff sport as currently constituted.
He specifically mentioned trading from the position prospect pool for pitching in his intro and follow up presser.
That obviously has not happened.
This has been a back-back-back-burner curiosity for me all offseason, considering the Padres' weird financial situation (which they've spent into a fair amount this winter). They're at $216M for CBT purposes now, which seems fine, and well under the $237 threshold (which would be their third season over). There were reports they were looking to get under $200M, but who knows. They are, I'd think, the best fit for Blake Snell without the draft pick compensation hanging over them. But I doubt they'd do it unless they shed other payroll.
Meanwhile, that roster is a disaster waiting to happen, if it isn't already. They have the deep misfortune of playing in a division with the Dodgers, and they've got extremely high $ commitments in 2026 (3rd in MLB) and 2027 (2nd in MLB), almost entirely in players who would be well past their primes.
Any possible Tatis trade would look ridiculous on paper, but I wonder if we could supply them with enough outfielders to make it interesting, plus one or two of Houck/Crawford, and take back Cronenworth or Darvish. Then they could sign Snell and take it from there? Very doubtful, of course.
My best guess, he didn't anticipate that outside of Mayer, Anthony and Teel that none of the other prospects have all that much trade value.
He talked so much about trading for starting pitching, people needing to be comfortable with trading prospects for pitching, the need to acquire controllable starting pitching, etc, etc. He probably thought / hoped he'd be able to get a starting pitcher that route first and guys like Duran, Bleis, Yorke, Perales, Gonzalez and Cespedes just don't have all that much value on the trade market.
Outside of Bello, Casas, Mayer, Anthony, Teel (and now Grissom) there just isn't much in the organization that is all that value in terms of trading for starting pitching - and the farm doesn't have anyone like Sanchez, Kopech or Espinoza to entice another team to deal.
I can't see this. He'd have to be the best company man of all time to accept that, a matter of weeks after he was hired.
From MLB Trade Rumors
Speaking of the Padres, it’s at least worth pointing out that San Diego has reportedly expressed interest in a trade involving Duran, though there’s never been any indication the two parties are close to a deal. But as the Sox look for ways to add to their collection of outfielders, it bears mentioning that the addition of a free agent could at least make the idea of moving Duran a bit more palatable. Boston would presumably prefer MLB-ready pitching in such a swap, however, and that’s an area the Padres themselves are also a bit thin, which complicates the scenario.
The best result here is just to play Duran and see what you have. That might mean NOT adding Duvall/Pham. It doesn't sound like you are getting fair value for Duran.
Speaking of the Padres, it’s at least worth pointing out that San Diego has reportedly expressed interest in a trade involving Duran, though there’s never been any indication the two parties are close to a deal. But as the Sox look for ways to add to their collection of outfielders, it bears mentioning that the addition of a free agent could at least make the idea of moving Duran a bit more palatable. Boston would presumably prefer MLB-ready pitching in such a swap, however, and that’s an area the Padres themselves are also a bit thin, which complicates the scenario.
The best result here is just to play Duran and see what you have. That might mean NOT adding Duvall/Pham. It doesn't sound like you are getting fair value for Duran.
I just don't see the fit unless the Padres are willing to give up Snelling, which I cannot in a million years believe they would be willing to do. I just don't see it.
This is my island.
Lots of back patting for recognizing the higher developmental hit rate on hitters. You know who else recognizes this? Every GM.
Good SPs prospects are going to be worth much more than 1:1 for elite hitters and the buyer market hasn’t caught up with the seller market yet. It’s also why farm comparisons are kind of a soup sandwich. The individual rankings are cool, and I eat them up, but comparing pitching heavy prospect bases is even more analyst discretionary. I’ve seen breakdowns here showing basically only a handful of teams have multiple elite pitchers so small samples.
No backwards looking analysis (I’ve seen a convincing equivalency on SOSH for a 55 hitter = 50 SP for example) is going to capture this adequately, because I think it’s widened and widening.
What was he supposed to do?
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It's fun to think about, but I think the problem is that Tatis is the only one of those big contracts who is not yet over 30 and declining. Their farm system is middling (as far as I can tell), and with all that money on aging guys, selling Tatis would be the start of a very long and likely very painful rebuild. Better to hope they can get some better luck in the next couple years before the wheels come off Xander, Machado, Darvish, and Musgrove, and then start tanking only when you have to. Unless they are in truly dire financial straits.
Man, that team just never pulled it together.
It is wild to me that the ownership group waited so long to level set expectations and address the "full throttle" comment. For almost 2 months, hardcore and casual fans were expecting money to be spent and impactful moves to be made so that the team could get back into contention.
They really hung Breslow out to dry this winter in my opinion. It feels like fans like us found out that the budget would actually be less than last year at the same time Breslow found out. That being said, CB is in his first season of running the baseball operation and I do not expect him to nail every free market forecast and make perfect decisions. There is a learning curve even for the smartest baseball guys.
The quote in the Alex Speier post got me thinking - clearly his expectations did not line up with what has actually happened. It is one thing to not sign the big ticket free agents, but it seems like there has been some things that were not communicated clearly from ownership, or flat out not communicated at all. That is not a good look and it put CB in a tough spot from the jump.
They really hung Breslow out to dry this winter in my opinion. It feels like fans like us found out that the budget would actually be less than last year at the same time Breslow found out. That being said, CB is in his first season of running the baseball operation and I do not expect him to nail every free market forecast and make perfect decisions. There is a learning curve even for the smartest baseball guys.
The quote in the Alex Speier post got me thinking - clearly his expectations did not line up with what has actually happened. It is one thing to not sign the big ticket free agents, but it seems like there has been some things that were not communicated clearly from ownership, or flat out not communicated at all. That is not a good look and it put CB in a tough spot from the jump.
Not sure where you're looking but Preller has been incredible at restocking the farm multiple times in recent years. Currently McDaniel at ESPN has them with the 4th best system in MLB, 8 guys in his top 116.
If the front office pulled such a severe bait switch on him (which, to be clear, I don't think is the case), I don't think resigning on the spot would be an overreaction. How could he ever trust them after that?
Fangraphs has them 11th - I know they are still in the process of offseason updates, which is why I added that hedge. 4th is a lot better, but I think the point remains that it will be a hard rebuild if they have 4/5 albatross contracts to drag along.
Fangraphs is my go-to for a lot of things, but their farm system rankings are so far behind reality that they are not worth even paying attention to currently.
SD is in a tricky position though overall, no argument there, I'm just really impressed with how Preller has quickly rebuilt things after emptying the farm for Soto in mid-2022.
Fair enough, personally not sure I’d pick that moment to stand on principle as a rookie GM. Long view, which I’m assuming he has visibility into, must look better too…hopefully?
Just for shits and giggles I took a look at Darvish's contract and YIKES!!! At 37 years old he's still under contract 5 more seasons and will turn 43 during the last season. $16M, $21M, $16M, $15M and $15M (total of $83M) with $18M each year against the CBT
Another thing to note about San Diego is that they handed all these guys no trade clauses. So even if they wanted to pull off a Punto trade to better position themselves for the long term, it’s virtually impossible.
Yea, its also just a good reminder at how quickly things can change when you have a draft pick in Comp Round hit with major helium. Snelling was picked 39th overall in 2022 and now he's a top 50+ prospect. Same kind of thing with Roman Anthony on the Sox. It's like a double bonus when non elite picks and/or signing produce elite prospects
There's a lot of money in that deal if we're including Darvish as well. I'm not confident that SD sends all that mush cash back which means the Sox would be adding a significant amount of payroll and would still need to address their long term need for a top of the rotation pitcher.
Maybe something happened this offseason that was unexpected and therefore trimmed the budget for 2024 but it will change next offseason?
And just to be clear, I am not sure that the bait and switch happened (I would say it's unlikely) but it is weird just how much the messaging changed
In the 2 to 3 weeks between Breslow's hiring and the start of the free agency?
I'm going with Yamamoto's price blew up and/or nobody wanted to trade young pitchers.
With a full no-trade, it's so ridiculous. And with as far back as he goes with Preller, I can't imagine he leaves for any reason.
Right, good point. Cronenworth's got a partial NTC, FWIW.
One thing with Tatis is that there has seemed for a while to be stuff we don't quite get about how he fits in that clubhouse, and maybe that could factor. Maybe it's overblown, but his teammates did not seem to love him (though IIRC the most vocal about it was Clevinger, who seems like a goon). There was some promo thing the Padres did a year ago that centered Soto, Bogaerts and Machado while notably omitting Tatis, which turned heads, but maybe there was some restriction against using his likeness while he was suspended?
I just posted this at length in the lay off that throttle thread. Speier's take, which he says is based mostly on perception, is that the team doesn't want to repeat the mistake from the 2014-15 offseason, when they "jumpstarted" the core by signing big-ticket free agents. That's not necessarily ownership; there are plenty of assistant GMs and others still in place with institutional knowledge.
He also says that "everything (he's) been told is that this isn't the new reality for the Red Sox, that there will come a time when they're ready to spend again."
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2123-season-preview-series-red-sox-and-padres/
Also occam's razor: whatever the plan was for spending, there's no Earthly reason it only came together after he was hired. I'm nearly certain that as soon as the 2023 season started circling the drain, Henry & co began to formulate their next spending plan. Usual caveats about what we don't know, but the relative rarity of the Sox just going for the big overpay, damn the torpedoes, suggests that they always kind of know what they want to spend and the market either meets their budget or it doesn't.
This is really interesting. Did he go into specifics about those signings? Very curious what he had to say about that.
Becket had 10/5 rights at the time of the Punto trade, so it's not impossible, but you're right that the more of them are involved the more difficult it becomes.
View: https://twitter.com/smittyonmlb/status/1757539294720262498?s=46
I have no idea what they are trying to accomplish if this is the case.
I have no idea what they are trying to accomplish if this is the case.
Its pretty clear that the hurdle to move Jansen is taking on his money. This suggests they have an interested party but they are apart on price. And maybe that they are prepared to keep him. It feels like he is getting dealt and its only a matter of time.
Well, the argument has always been that they want to trade Jansen and free up his salary to reallocate elsewhere? Presumably for another starter, right? If they have to pick up salary, it defeats the entire purpose. Then again, there aren’t many free agent SP left and it’s unclear why the Sox can’t afford to sign any of them outright.
The whole offseason seemed to revolve around trading something (other than their top prospects) for a controllable SP. Once they couldn’t do that they have seemed a bit paralyzed to do much of anything else.
The whole offseason seemed to revolve around trading something (other than their top prospects) for a controllable SP. Once they couldn’t do that they have seemed a bit paralyzed to do much of anything else.
"He also says that "everything (he's) been told is that this isn't the new reality for the Red Sox, that there will come a time when they're ready to spend again.""
Isn't that time NOW?
Isn't that time NOW?
Maybe it's that if they have to pay him they might as well get the benefit of his pitching? If they disliked him more they might swallow some salary so perhaps it's a compliment.
Not if you think you have to wait for a new young core to emerge. And/or if you are trying to pry a pre-FA pitcher loose from somewhere.
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1757552450116911144?s=46&t=IVL2VrlFgLlpc3mjGGto8Q
Speier:“The Red Sox, according to sources, have kept tabs on Montgomery’s market. But if it does collapse in a way that makes him available on a shorter-term deal, there’s an industry belief that he’d be more likely to head to a team with a better chance to win in 2024 than the Red Sox. So, not impossible, but highly unlikely”
Speier:“The Red Sox, according to sources, have kept tabs on Montgomery’s market. But if it does collapse in a way that makes him available on a shorter-term deal, there’s an industry belief that he’d be more likely to head to a team with a better chance to win in 2024 than the Red Sox. So, not impossible, but highly unlikely”
I really want to believe this year is just an outlier while they see what they have Houck/Whitlock-/Abreu etc., that they will be back to spending like they have in the past. But things like this make me wonder.
It is interesting that the sticking point appears to be the Sox clearing his salary and not the return. It suggests that if Jansen is dealt, our prospect-lovers may be disappointed with what comes back. This appears to be mostly about money.
Of course we are going off of the faint trace of actual information so only the parties to this really know.
I really figured they would do something and spend some money, but at this point it looks pretty bleak.
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