So they are going to pay both Breslow and Bloom to do pretty much what they fired Bloom for doing?
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Make Yamomato priority #1, #2, and #3. Just get him. He is 5 years younger than any other free agent, so 7 years shouldn't be too scary. The holdover's in the Sox FO (O'Halloran, Romero, Ferreira) already have experience negotiating with Orix because they just did it for Masa a year ago. That familiarity should help. For the other starter, go the trade route of a soon to be too expensive SP from a small market team. I'm not sure who the best fit would be. Center that package around Verdugo, Yorke, and one of Houck, Winkowski, Crawford or Whitlock. I'm not convinced any of these guys is a viable SP, possibly Crawford. From there, find the RHH OF that Breslow stated he'd get. Someone who can play LF when Masa is the DH. Teoscar a possibility, but I'm not opposed to bringing Duvall back. If not for a kind of freak injury, his numbers over 450 AB's would've been pretty darn good. For 2b, the FA market isn't great, Valdez is a butcher in the field, and Hamilton doesn't appear much better. Why not have Cedanne be part of that mix? RH bat, has shown some pop, elite defender, cost controlled....
I don't think either player required/requires any direct interaction with Orix, both were/are unrestricted free agents with US representation.
Shouldn't most of the recent posts (say, for example Trout and Ohtani futures) be moved out of the Red Sox forum? I keep clicking here and find next to nothing about the Sox.
I understand that, and its a valid point, but the fact that they were scouting Masa for at least a year before his being posted, and assuming that they've been scouting Yamo for at least that long, and both played for the same organization in Japan, it certainly could give them a familiarity that other clubs may not have. I'm just hoping that any edge we could have to get this guy is useful. It seems like every 5th day that he pitched has the chance to be an "event" and I believe Breslow understands that this market needs exactly that.
That's an entirely different point, but still not very valid. No one else especially wanted Yoshida, that's why he and his agent jumped at the BOS offer so quickly. Lots of teams want Yamamoto very badly, and everyone who wants him has been working on it for a long time however they possibly can.
Bloom did a good job improving the farm and finding value. He was not great at improving the major league roster with top-end talent. The Red Sox brass obviously likes Breslow’s plan and hopefully that includes opening the checkbook for a player like Yamamoto. I don’t expect Breslow to be Dombrowski level aggressive, but probably closer to Dave than Chaim was.
The market for Yamamoto is going to be insane. With a backup option gone in Nola the need for the full might of Henry's wallet is even greater. I think his contract is going to be in the 9 324 area that Cole got. Soo many bidders. I'd go 10 for 300. I am well aware that is well over the current projections but guys with his stuff resume and age don't become FA's . This Offseason reminds me David Price offseason. There's one logical fit like a glove option and the rest are meh or have warts.
If he was goal was to improve the farm system he did that, but he also missed more opportunities looking for the perfect trade. IMO, Bloom was a decidedly average executive.
If the Sox win the bid on Yamamoto, I'll assume that we won't be hearing about how much they overpaid. We know that a losing bid will be accompanied by commentary about how Henry is a cheapskate.
I don't think they do "bidding" anymore. He's posted and then can negotiate with interested teams
Ken Rosenthal on different potential salary structures for Ohtani:
Link (paywall)
The conditional opt-out seems weird and something Ohtani would seemingly never accept, as Rosenthal writes. The second structure could be how clubs come to think of it -- pay top of the market (for the hitter) and try to get as much as possible additional money (for the pitcher) incentivized. Seems like a good plan to approach the negotiation, until a team swoops in and guarantees it all.
Link (paywall)
Pre injury Ohtani at any cost.
Now I don’t want him at all. He has crippling a franchise written all over him.
Now I don’t want him at all. He has crippling a franchise written all over him.
Do you think he’s not going to hit? Unless you think his rehab impacts his availability and/or effectiveness hitting, whoever signs him is going to get an elite hitter for several years. It all depends on the final price tag but 10/500 feels reasonable when he’d probably get 10/400 as a hitter alone. If someone goes stupid like 10/600 or something, I’d tend to agree.
I don't think he's a $40 million a year hitter, though. He would be if last year is what you can reasonably expect going forward, but it was his best offensive year by far. Before that his offense wasn't good enough to win an MVP award without pitching. Look at his most similar batters through age 28.
Some really good players on that list who had great years mixed in, but none deserved to be the highest paid player in the game. It seems more likely that he settles into being the .260/.360/.550 guy he was before than putting up a bunch of 1.066 OPS years again.
Rafael Devers just got 10/313 or so and he hasn’t even approached what Ohtani’s done as a hitter. Who here wouldn’t sign up for 10/400 for Ohtani the hitter? Are you really worrying about $10-15M / year, assuming no pitching contribution? How does that cripple a franchise any more than all the other massive deals?
How do you cripple a franchise these days? I’d argue that Stanton is the worst contract going and the Yankees are more or less OK, or at least not held back by finances alone. Also you are flipping from all in to no way because of a UCL? People get those fixed all the time.
According to Spotrac, the Yankees payroll last season was more than 90M more than the Red Sox. If the Red Sox were willing to spend close to what NY does, than they could handle a 50M/year pricetag.
I also think that the Marlins have subsidized Stanton's contract since they traded for him.
Devers is 2.5 years younger, though. Ohtani looks great now, but so did Pujols, A-Rod, etc. How many players, esp in the post steroid era, are still elite hitters in their mid 30’s?
Whose body type would you rather bet on, Devers or Ohtani’s? You’re right about the age risk but the entire bet on Ohtani is that he’s a unicorn. And I see the power sustaining for several years. The back end of these deals clearly don’t age well for basically anyone but there should be so much value in the first half where the winning team is ok with it.
Since Ohtani is likely dictating terms, is there any point to him asking for an opt out in year 2 or 3 if he can get $500m guaranteed? I think any opt out would come at the end of the contract, maybe opt-outs in years 10 and 11 (assuming he gets a 12 year deal) if he's still an effective pitcher. He might be able to get a Verlander or Scherzer like deal.
In any case, it's also interesting what effect that Ohtani coming over earlier will have on other Japanese players. There was a lot of discussion 6 years ago that he came over too early, that if he had waited until 25 that he would have gotten $200m guaranteed. Even with two severe injuries, he’s going to net out at close to $600m for his career. If he had waited to come after 25, he might have become a free agent at 33 or 34 (using Tanaka’s contract as the benchmark).
In any case, it's also interesting what effect that Ohtani coming over earlier will have on other Japanese players. There was a lot of discussion 6 years ago that he came over too early, that if he had waited until 25 that he would have gotten $200m guaranteed. Even with two severe injuries, he’s going to net out at close to $600m for his career. If he had waited to come after 25, he might have become a free agent at 33 or 34 (using Tanaka’s contract as the benchmark).
I don't think his case will necessarily be instructive for other Japanese players for a couple reasons -- first because they'll all be coming over as either pitchers or hitters, and not as unicorns. But also because in most cases the younger players are making relative peanuts here. Yamamoto ($4.5m ish) & Munetaka Murakami ($4m) are the only aged 25 & under players in the country making more than about USD 1mm per year. Wonderkid Roki Sasaki made about 550k this year.
Which is to say, from a financial perspective it's a no-brainer to get to MLB as soon as possible. Roki for example will probably get a slight raise this year, maybe to like 800k as a guess. And then if he stays healthy headed into 2025 he'd have a choice of making say $1~1.5m here, or getting maybe up to 2 or 3 times that in international bonus pool money from the Sox or whoever, plus his league minimum salary.
And a slightly different point but while obviously everyone loves to get paid, it's not usually the main driver for a lot of the marquee names making the move. More than anything else, they want to play at the next level. Just this man's opinion but I bet if the #'s were flipped and in 2017 you told Ohtani that if he waits two years he can make $600m in his career, but if he goes now he'll top out at $200m, he would still have chosen to go.
I’d like to say that Ohtani is a DH while Devers plays 3b and that should be factored into his value, and yet Devers is so bad at defense I’ve often wondered if he’d be more valuable as a DH
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With the subsidy they get from the Marlins the AAV for Stanton has been $22 million, which is less than guys like Story and Sale.
It sucks that he's been injured so much, but it really hasn't been that bad. Manageable enough for most teams beyond the Yankees too, I think.
The Sale deal is really bad but Strasburg is much, much worse...
Sale: 145 mil for151 IP, 117 ERA+, 2.6 WAR, plus whatever he does this coming year
Strasburg: 245 mil for 31 IP, 61 ERA+, minus 0.8 WAR, will never pitch again
Sale: 145 mil for151 IP, 117 ERA+, 2.6 WAR, plus whatever he does this coming year
Strasburg: 245 mil for 31 IP, 61 ERA+, minus 0.8 WAR, will never pitch again
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Sale seems fairly dispositive. A chronically injured key player ties up 10-15% of your overall payroll resources, and gives you average to replacement level production for the limited time they're active. Meanwhile they tie up a 40 spot and you never quite know whether you should cut bait or continue to roll out stopgap replacements.
In isolation that won't do it, but you have to figure the above always happens. So now combine it with a random injury to another key player, or a couple of underwhelming signings.
The point is, it's eating heavily into your margin for success.
Yamamoto's negotiation window began 1 hour 35 minutes ago. How long does it take Breslow to schedule the news conference? I have no patience.
1. The Red Sox need a massive spark in the organization.
2. The Red Sox need a #1 starting pitcher.
3. The Red Sox have tons of money available to spend.
4. Yamamoto looks every bit like a stud starting pitcher.
5. Yamamoto is only 25 years old. He's not one of these 30 year old pitchers that is hitting free agency.
Lots of teams will try to sign him. But he should be far and away the #1 priority for Boston, and they should back up the Brinks truck for him. Whatever it takes. Yes. That.
He fills by far their biggest need. He only costs money. A crap ton of money, yes, but only money. Which the Sox have lots of at this point. And he's still young so you'd be getting the best years of him.
Is he a risk? Of course. We don't KNOW how he will adjust to MLB. We don't KNOW that he will hold up physically (he's not big). We don't KNOW that this contract won't come back to bite the Sox. But it's exactly the kind of situation that they try to save money FOR. They have lots of offense. They have a decent bullpen. They need starting pitching and this guy is the best SP available.
Whatever it takes, Craig. Get it done.
2. The Red Sox need a #1 starting pitcher.
3. The Red Sox have tons of money available to spend.
4. Yamamoto looks every bit like a stud starting pitcher.
5. Yamamoto is only 25 years old. He's not one of these 30 year old pitchers that is hitting free agency.
Lots of teams will try to sign him. But he should be far and away the #1 priority for Boston, and they should back up the Brinks truck for him. Whatever it takes. Yes. That.
He fills by far their biggest need. He only costs money. A crap ton of money, yes, but only money. Which the Sox have lots of at this point. And he's still young so you'd be getting the best years of him.
Is he a risk? Of course. We don't KNOW how he will adjust to MLB. We don't KNOW that he will hold up physically (he's not big). We don't KNOW that this contract won't come back to bite the Sox. But it's exactly the kind of situation that they try to save money FOR. They have lots of offense. They have a decent bullpen. They need starting pitching and this guy is the best SP available.
Whatever it takes, Craig. Get it done.
Every big deal is a risk. A huge risk that has a pretty high likelihood of not paying off. It's a horribly inefficient way to spend money. OTOH...it's tough to leverage the financial advantage the Sox have without deals like this. So, yeah. Get it done.
Sure, but I think @Rovin Romine nailed it.
From where I sit, the Sox just basically sat out a half decade of competition because of Sales dead contract. Yes, I remember the run to the ALCS.
What if Yamamoto gets 40 for 10? 12? It’s so easy to say but the Red Sox are not a big market team in practice.
It’s great pretending otherwise for a couple weeks during free agency, but that’s not who we are (anymore).
Hope to be wrong as they could easily spend if they wanted. A side note, but if the Sox do go nuclear payroll this year I’d be soooooooo pissed if I was Bloom.
I'm not riding the Ohtani train and here's why. The Sox greatest needs ATM is top line pitch and defense. While the Sox have the cash to be players in this year's FA market I'm questioning the wisdom of potentially paying $40 M plus for a guy who might never again be the pitcher that he once was and might not be dependable as an outfielder.
This just isn't true. The Sox' poor run is not because of the Sale contract, it's because the farm system went like 5 years with little to no production. Teams win all the time with dead money on the books. The Yankees always have at least one bad deal on the books -- Giambi, Teixeira, Ellsbury, Stanton. The Astros this year spent 48 million on Jose Abreu, Lance McCullers, and Michael Brantley, who combined for exactly 0.1 WAR. The Rangers paid Jacob DeGrom 37 mil this year.
Dead money is the cost of doing business for teams who swim in the deep end of the FA pool. If they all go bad at the same time, that's a tough hole to dig out from. But one bad deal? A good team can weather that storm.
Just to be clear, I don't know enough about Yamamoto to opine just where the red line for signing him would be. But like Ohtani, I think there is one. You take either guy if they want to play for the league minimum. You take neither guy if you're talking about an AAV of 50+ for a decade. That's because both of them have some fairly serious question marks attached, and I don't think analytical tools can resolve those questions.
Yes, it’s certainly the cost of doing business if you’re doing business as it’s done at the top of the market (Mets/Dodgers/Yankees).
Agree to disagree on the Sox playing this way: I think the dead money from Sale significantly impacted every choice they made for years, including opportunities to buy prospects. I fundamentally do not trust this ownership to spend through pain so I need them thinking very rationally.
Another name I’m not too keen on, even if he is an excellent pitcher: Blake Snell.
He’s pitched 180-190 innings twice in his career. He’s never pitched more than 128.2 in an other season. He’d be good to have, but I’m not giving him silly money, and I’m not counting on him to be “the ace”.
He’s pitched 180-190 innings twice in his career. He’s never pitched more than 128.2 in an other season. He’d be good to have, but I’m not giving him silly money, and I’m not counting on him to be “the ace”.
If Ohtani is DH-only, that means he's pitching and presumably pitching well - and that would be good news. The only reason he's not a full-time outfielder now is to manage his risk and wear and tear, and to allow him to focus on hitting and pitching. While there's risk everywhere, I don't think the realistic future risk is that he's DH-only. If he can't pitch, he would move to the outfield, and in that Ken Rosenthal piece, a GM said Ohtani has plus speed and arm, and projected confidence in him as a full-time corner outfielder if he wasn't pitching. So it's not like Ohtani is either the great hitter-pitcher unicorn he is now or he's a full-time DH clogging that slot, potentially creating downstream issues for Devers, Masataka, Casas etc. For 10/$500+ million, you get the unicorn or you get the hitter with some potentially plus defensive attributes to go along with it. Not sure there's a realistic scenario where he's DH only, at least not until the back-end of the contract.I’d like to say that Ohtani is a DH while Devers plays 3b and that should be factored into his value, and yet Devers is so bad at defense I’ve often wondered if he’d be more valuable as a DH
Edited to acknowledge that Ohtani would likely be DH-only in 2024 while he's rehabbing from TJS.
The idea that the Red Sox weren’t competitive for a few years because of Chris Sales contract is ridiculous. They won 92 games in 21, when he provided $0.9 bWAR (he was at 1.7 this past year). That same year, they paid $30M to Dustin Pedroia and David Price. If we remove Sale, their payroll was still pretty high. Feels like a pretty lame excuse to me.
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