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Euclis20

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Both guys took discounts, so I suspect this was based on feelings and fairness as much as on-court considerations. Wiggins took a slightly bigger discount, likely because he's already made $139m in salary alone thus far in his career. This is Poole's first big contract, so it made sense for him to get a big bag.
I don't see how this is a discount for Poole. Spotrac predicted he's sign for 4/100, Bleacher Report predicted the same (if he had played out the year and had similar production). One of his biggest comps has to be Tyler Herro (who just won 6th man, is a more complete player, and has a much better track record) and he signed for $10M less. Maybe Poole ends up as one of the highest scoring combo guards in the league, but I think it's far more likely has a career similar to Jamal Crawford. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but Crawford made $10M+ just 3 times in 20 years (which is low, even accounting for the increased salary cap). There's value in the Warriors locking him up now, especially considering the Draymond issue, but I don't see how they would have had to pay MORE if they'd just waited out the year and let him go to restricted free agency.
 

BigMike

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Poole getting more of a bag than Wiggins is interesting. Not that he doesn't deserve it, but I wonder how much of a "tax" GSW had to add on to keep him happy as a result of the punch.
Yeah this amazed me. I figured they would keep Wiggins, and thought they might walk away from (deal) Poole. I just don't see it, but obviously, it's only money, and they have plenty
 

lovegtm

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Yeah this amazed me. I figured they would keep Wiggins, and thought they might walk away from (deal) Poole. I just don't see it, but obviously, it's only money, and they have plenty
Yeah, at a half-billion dollar tax bill, GSW is rapidly threatening to crack the "actually, it's not just money" barrier.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I don't see how this is a discount for Poole. Spotrac predicted he's sign for 4/100, Bleacher Report predicted the same (if he had played out the year and had similar production). One of his biggest comps has to be Tyler Herro (who just won 6th man, is a more complete player, and has a much better track record) and he signed for $10M less. Maybe Poole ends up as one of the highest scoring combo guards in the league, but I think it's far more likely has a career similar to Jamal Crawford. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that, but Crawford made $10M+ just 3 times in 20 years (which is low, even accounting for the increased salary cap). There's value in the Warriors locking him up now, especially considering the Draymond issue, but I don't see how they would have had to pay MORE if they'd just waited out the year and let him go to restricted free agency.
Personally I think there’s something wrong with being a high-volume, ultra-low-efficiency chucker like Jamal Crawford. Fortunately Poole is the opposite of that: a high-volume, high-efficiency chucker.

TS%
Jamal Crawford career .529 / .496 playoffs
Crawford age 22 season: 496
Poole age 22 season: .598 / .654 playoffs

The last two seasons Poole has been much closer to young Steph Curry than to Jamal Crawford in terms of scoring efficiency.

Also curious why you think Herro is a “more complete” player than Poole. Last season per 36:

Poole 22.2 pts on .598 ts / 4.1 reb / 4.8 ast
Herro 17.9 pts on .561 / 5.5 reb / 4.0 ast

I see very similar player types, right down to their age and Milwaukee prep school pedigree — so when Herro’s extension was signed, the die was effectively cast for JP. But I think Poole’s superior scoring ability, efficiency, backup PG skills, and less party-boyish reputation easily accounts for the $750,000 delta in AAV (Poole $123M total, Herro $120M, with Poole earning $7M more than Herro in incentives).

Both rate as mediocre-to-poor defenders, though I think it’s probably a little too early to judge either of them definitively on that front.

I agree with you that Poole’s deal is hard to consider a “discount,” but I think it’s probably a better value than Herro’s contract. We shall see. And as you say, either way, there’s value to the Warriors in locking him up now — especially after the egregious Draymond assault — rather than risking the potential acrimony of, say, the Ayton/Phoenix situation.
 
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Sam Ray Not

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Poole getting more of a bag than Wiggins is interesting. Not that he doesn't deserve it, but I wonder how much of a "tax" GSW had to add on to keep him happy as a result of the punch.
I doubt that was much of a factor, personally. I think the deal had been in the works for a while, and was going to come in around Herro’s range or a bit higher, punch or no punch. If anything I think the punch has something to do with the impending extension (Dray’s protestations notwithstanding).

As far as Wiggins, I think it’s pretty interesting that he and Poole have the same agent. While it’s true that Wiggins at 26 was the more valuable playoff player for GS than Poole at 22, it’s also true that (1) primary creators get paid; (2) great defense gets underpaid; (3) youth/upside gets paid; and (4) Wiggins had already earned his first max deal and experienced life in the NBA wilderness, so was understandably more inclined than JP to take a discount to be in a place where he and his family were happy.
 

Eddie Jurak

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As far as Wiggins, I think it’s pretty interesting that he and Poole have the same agent. While it’s true that Wiggins at 26 was the more valuable playoff player for GS than Poole at 22, it’s also true that (1) primary creators get paid; (2) great defense gets underpaid; (3) youth/upside gets paid; and (4) Wiggins had already earned his first max deal and experienced life in the NBA wilderness, so was understandably more inclined than JP to take a discount to be in a place where he and his family were happy.
What is the general opinion of how good Wiggins is? People used to view him as an overrated pure athlete who could not do basketball. He's had a reputational resurgence since arriving in GS. But to me he is still at his core a complementary player. To me, his closest analog on the Celtics would be Marcus Smart. He thrives on the Warriors only because he doesn't have to carry any offensive load (Curry, Klay, and Poole do that). I think he has more value in GS than he would almost anywhere else, and the contract probably reflects that.
 

Sam Ray Not

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What is the general opinion of how good Wiggins is? People used to view him as an overrated pure athlete who could not do basketball. He's had a reputational resurgence since arriving in GS. But to me he is still at his core a complementary player. To me, his closest analog on the Celtics would be Marcus Smart. He thrives on the Warriors only because he doesn't have to carry any offensive load (Curry, Klay, and Poole do that). I think he has more value in GS than he would almost anywhere else, and the contract probably reflects that.
Totally fair assessment, imo. He’s always been more than a “pure athlete” — has some pretty smooth ball skills for a guy his size — but until the last couple seasons it was fair to say he was not particularly good at any one thing. Below average shooter, FT shooter, rebounder, passer, and defender … which added up to not much, even though as a 6-8 elite athlete he fit the archetype of the perfect modern NBA player.

Since he embraced the role of “elite defensive stopper” that he had the physical tools to be, he’s a totally different caliber of player. Now being just “complementary” at the other stuff is not a problem. (Holding off on judging if his bizarre leap as rebounder in last year’s playoffs is real, but if it is, he may have another half-level to improve as an overall player).
 

Euclis20

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Personally I think there’s something wrong with being a high-volume, ultra-low-efficiency chucker like Jamal Crawford. Fortunately Poole is the opposite of that: a high-volume, high-efficiency chucker.

TS%
Jamal Crawford career .529 / .496 playoffs
Crawford age 22 season: 496
Poole age 22 season: .598 / .654 playoffs

The last two seasons Poole has been much closer to young Steph Curry than to Jamal Crawford in terms of scoring efficiency.

Also curious why you think Herro is a “more complete” player than Poole. Last season per 36:

Poole 22.2 pts on .598 ts / 4.1 reb / 4.8 ast
Herro 17.9 pts on .561 / 5.5 reb / 4.0 ast

I see very similar player types, right down to their age and Milwaukee prep school pedigree — so when Herro’s extension was signed, the die was effectively cast for JP. But I think Poole’s superior scoring ability, efficiency, backup PG skills, and less party-boyish reputation easily accounts for the $750,000 delta in AAV (Poole $123M total, Herro $120M, with Poole earning $7M more than Herro in incentives).

Both rate as mediocre-to-poor defenders, though I think it’s probably a little too early to judge either of them definitively on that front.

I agree with you that Poole’s deal is hard to consider a “discount,” but I think it’s probably a better value than Herro’s contract. We shall see. And as you say, either way, there’s value to the Warriors in locking him up now — especially after the egregious Draymond assault — rather than risking the potential acrimony of, say, the Ayton/Phoenix situation.
I should have been clearer on the Crawford comparison. Crawford was the very definition of a microwave scorer off the bench who didn't provide much else, could get lost in the playoffs due to his defensive issues, and was never paid a lot. I can see Poole ending up like that, and I'm not sure that's a guy that you'd end up being happy making him the 31st highest paid player by AAV (right between Jimmy Butler and James Harden), but he's certainly a better player than Crawford was at the same age. It took Crawford half his career to find his place, if Poole has done it by year 3, that's excellent.

On Herro, the differences are very minor (I think Herro is a slightly better rebounder and passer, but not enough to make a difference), and you're absolutely right that this cake was baked the minute Herro signed his extension. I think Poole has a slightly higher ceiling, but Herro is a slightly better for the Heat than Poole is for the Warriors (Herro's scoring works very well alongside the ++ defenders in Miami's starting lineup, while I'm not so sure that Poole is the ideal backcourt partner for Curry as the latter ages and both guys become negative defenders), but the biggest point Herro has in his favor is that he's got more of a track record. He's got the exact same weaknesses as Poole, but he's been doing this since he came into the league, his improvement was more gradual. It raises his floor somewhat.
 
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Pablo's TB Lover

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Zion is unquestionably in fantastic shape right now, it just depends if it’ll stay that way.
Zion's ankle injury last Wednesday is not a great way to head into the season, but maybe shedding a little weight will help his recovery from these lower extremity injuries. As always it would take me $10 to confirm this info, but Brian Sutterer who does some good videos has concern over these types of ankle injuries for basketball players due to a "30-40%" chance of recurrence once you get a single sprain. He used Steph Curry as an example who was stuck in the cycle of recurrence for a while before he retrained his body which means exercises from hip on down, ankle braces, etc. to fight continued instability Hopefully Zion really is taking his body development seriously (more pliability less muscle bulk) and can get over this quickly. We'll know pretty early on in the regular season if anything is lingering.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQKctOxS4LI
 

HomeRunBaker

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TL is probably out until Jan. 1? I imagine 538s model takes into account his return.

The first half of the NBA regular season isn't all that important for Celtic title aspirations.

I have a feeling Mazzulla will be fine. Brad is really good at moving the chess pieces
I recall after the playoffs questioning whether TL would be available at all this year with his knee clearly compromised. There is a real possibility we have already seen the best of him. This is more of a factor for my Under 54.5 Win wager from the gambling thread than the coaching change.
 

Kliq

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The Rockets are probably like what, at least two years away from playoff contention at a minimum? They don't have to worry at all about the salary cap; even if Porter completely bombs out it won't really impact anything they want/need to do.
 

Jimbodandy

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Apparently only the first year is fully guaranteed, which makes a bit more sense (and is an odd structure for an NBA contract).
OK, holy shit the other way now.

Kid has ceiling, just don't trust his floor. Sounds like they have that built in to this. Again, thanks for the context. The headlines on these deals are becoming as useless as the NFL ones.
 

Cellar-Door

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Umm…risky
Based on the rumored structure it's low risk. First year guaranteed, others aren't, and a huge percentage of the money overall is based on guarantees for meeting certain requirements.

Edit- actually maybe medium risk, not clear what the guarantee triggers are, so depending on how heavily they tilt towards performance vs. availability and when they trigger, could be some risk (say if years 2/3 trigger together after year 1, etc. etc.)
 

BigSoxFan

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What am I missing about this guy? His numbers seem really underwhelming, would think he'd be in Grant's range, not nearly $24 mil a year
Shot 38% from downtown last year so if that becomes the baseline with his good defense, you have a useful, albeit overpaid, piece. I think he fits well with Dejounte.
 

The Mort Report

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Shot 38% from downtown last year so if that becomes the baseline with his good defense, you have a useful, albeit overpaid, piece. I think he fits well with Dejounte.
Yeah, all I knew about him really before this was he's spent time on my fantasy team, so I haven't seen him play much. He just seems like a similar player to Grant, but I'm guessing more untapped potential? Still just seems an insane amount of money for him, feels like a Knicks move
 

128

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Yeah, all I knew about him really before this was he's spent time on my fantasy team, so I haven't seen him play much. He just seems like a similar player to Grant, but I'm guessing more untapped potential? Still just seems an insane amount of money for him, feels like a Knicks move
His injury history is what makes it a risky move on the Hawks' part. When healthy, Hunter is a great two-way player, but he's had multiple knee operations since leaving UVa.
 

Cellar-Door

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What am I missing about this guy? His numbers seem really underwhelming, would think he'd be in Grant's range, not nearly $24 mil a year
His best stretch was probably better than Grant's best, each really has only like a season or so of top production, Grant's was last year, Hunter's was earlier and then he had injuries. Probably an overpay, but I also wouldn't be particularly surprised if he's better than Grant this year, and he's a true wing, so he has a bit more defensive flexibility than Grant.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Man, a player selected 11th in the draft is looking at generational wealth if you just make it to your 2nd contract even if only a rotational type player. Teams give players with potential so many chances even after underperforming in the early years. But with a tough year one combined with this charge, it puts Bouknight in the crosshairs to perform quickly or he won't be seeing another NBA contract. Or a contract that comes in over his rookie deal at least.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Pistons cut Kemba Walker, eating his entire $9.2 million salary.
End of the line for Kemba? Or will someone pick him at the min? He’s only 32 … life comes at you fast in the NBA. (Too late for that Wiggs-for-Kemba deal that some here imagined the Warriors would/should do in a heartbeat…)
 

ManicCompression

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End of the line for Kemba? Or will someone pick him at the min?
Dallas needs his skillset off the bench. The Lakers, too. I think he can be effective in quick bursts. 20 minutes a game, not playing back to backs. He just shouldn't be starting or an important part of any team's plans - like, don't be Thibs and play him 30-40 minutes some nights.
 

Fishy1

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Dallas needs his skillset off the bench. The Lakers, too. I think he can be effective in quick bursts. 20 minutes a game, not playing back to backs. He just shouldn't be starting or an important part of any team's plans - like, don't be Thibs and play him 30-40 minutes some nights.
He didn't get any preseason minutes for Detroit -- whether that's because he was awful or because they wanted the kids to play is an open question I think -- but his ability to get to the rim appears to be mostly gone.

I agree Dallas could use some more ballhandling, as it's really just Dinwiddie, Luka, and Hardaway Jr.. Kemba could be of some use of them in a late-career Barea-type role. Pickings are pretty thin out there right now for guards: Rondo, Jeremy Lamb, Kemba, Wayne Ellington, Avery Bradley, Lou Williams...

Lakers seem "set" though: Westbrook, Schroder, and Lebron should cover most of the ball-handling, and having Kendrick Nunn back will help too.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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End of the line for Kemba? Or will someone pick him at the min? He’s only 32 … life comes at you fast in the NBA. (Too late for that Wiggs-for-Kemba deal that some here imagined the Warriors would/should do in a heartbeat…)
A sub-6 foot tweener is not long for this world. If Kemba was a 40% 3-point shooter instead of 36% for his career, I could see him hanging on as a spot up shooter a bit longer. But it's not great if you can't rely on a small guy like this for some ball-handling assistance which really seemed to be the case at the end of his Cs stint when guys were crowding him in the playoffs. As opposed to Jaylen's dribbling issues which are exacerbated in the postseason, Kemba just couldn't reach around the larger defenders to actually complete a pass at the same time as losing his previous first-step quickness.
 

ManicCompression

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He didn't get any preseason minutes for Detroit -- whether that's because he was awful or because they wanted the kids to play is an open question I think -- but his ability to get to the rim appears to be mostly gone.

I agree Dallas could use some more ballhandling, as it's really just Dinwiddie, Luka, and Hardaway Jr.. Kemba could be of some use of them in a late-career Barea-type role. Pickings are pretty thin out there right now for guards: Rondo, Jeremy Lamb, Kemba, Wayne Ellington, Avery Bradley, Lou Williams...

Lakers seem "set" though: Westbrook, Schroder, and Lebron should cover most of the ball-handling, and having Kendrick Nunn back will help too.
I can't imagine the Lakers end the year with Westbrook. But moreover, there are at least 22 teams vying for 12 playoff spots and 20 play in spots. Those teams will need bench players with real skills, whether it's now or after an early season injury. I'm not saying Kemba will be good, but he's more likely to be good for that kind of team than a two-way player, so as to the question of whether this is "it" for Kemba, i don't think so. He still has something to offer, just not a ton, and a team on the bubble of playoffs but not quite top contender (Toronto? Sacramento?) will probably pick him up.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Personally I think there’s something wrong with being a high-volume, ultra-low-efficiency chucker like Jamal Crawford. Fortunately Poole is the opposite of that: a high-volume, high-efficiency chucker.

TS%
Jamal Crawford career .529 / .496 playoffs
Crawford age 22 season: 496
Poole age 22 season: .598 / .654 playoffs

The last two seasons Poole has been much closer to young Steph Curry than to Jamal Crawford in terms of scoring efficiency.

Also curious why you think Herro is a “more complete” player than Poole. Last season per 36:

Poole 22.2 pts on .598 ts / 4.1 reb / 4.8 ast
Herro 17.9 pts on .561 / 5.5 reb / 4.0 ast

I see very similar player types, right down to their age and Milwaukee prep school pedigree — so when Herro’s extension was signed, the die was effectively cast for JP. But I think Poole’s superior scoring ability, efficiency, backup PG skills, and less party-boyish reputation easily accounts for the $750,000 delta in AAV (Poole $123M total, Herro $120M, with Poole earning $7M more than Herro in incentives).

Both rate as mediocre-to-poor defenders, though I think it’s probably a little too early to judge either of them definitively on that front.

I agree with you that Poole’s deal is hard to consider a “discount,” but I think it’s probably a better value than Herro’s contract. We shall see. And as you say, either way, there’s value to the Warriors in locking him up now — especially after the egregious Draymond assault — rather than risking the potential acrimony of, say, the Ayton/Phoenix situation.
Poole has been approaching borderline All-Star level for awhile now yet he’s still not going to get respect. He was one of the best players on last years NBA Championship team at age 22……yet he’s being comped with a guy who put up empty numbers for the first 9 years of his career while having never won more than 33 games in a year until age 29 and his 4th team.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Rockets are probably like what, at least two years away from playoff contention at a minimum? They don't have to worry at all about the salary cap; even if Porter completely bombs out it won't really impact anything they want/need to do.
Yeah it doesn’t hurt Houston at all in Year One so there is very little risk for them. The side with all the risk here is Porter as he could be leaving a TON of money on the table in multiple seasons should he continue to grow as a player.
 

Euclis20

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Poole has been approaching borderline All-Star level for awhile now yet he’s still not going to get respect. He was one of the best players on last years NBA Championship team at age 22……yet he’s being comped with a guy who put up empty numbers for the first 9 years of his career while having never won more than 33 games in a year until age 29 and his 4th team.
LOL, he was 6th on the Warriors in MPG during last year's finals, and would have been 7th if Payton weren't coming back from injury. When he wasn't scoring, he was a complete liability (always the worst defender on the floor and averaged just 1.8 APG and 1.8 RPG in the finals). If you aren't comfortable with the Crawford comparison (Poole will be coming off the bench as long as Curry is in the NBA, I somehow doubt he matches Crawford's multiple 6th MOY awards), then I'll happily stick with Tyler Herro. Unless he takes another leap forward (certainly possible given his age), we'll always be wondering exactly how useful he can be deep in the playoffs when undersized and weaker defenders are hunted ruthlessly.
 

Jimbodandy

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Poole has been approaching borderline All-Star level for awhile now yet he’s still not going to get respect. He was one of the best players on last years NBA Championship team at age 22……yet he’s being comped with a guy who put up empty numbers for the first 9 years of his career while having never won more than 33 games in a year until age 29 and his 4th team.
Offensively, he's a damn good offensive player. By DARKO, he's between Zack Lavine and LaMelo Ball. Defensively, he's pretty shitty. Westbrook, Brunson, 2022 Marcus Morris.

So while he may be a borderline All-Star because only offense matters to most people (and he will be paid for it), net DARKO he's Bobby Portis/Tobias Harris right now. He's still trending up though and likely ends up closer to Brandon Ingram's profile by the end of the year (albeit shorter).
 
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