Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
We *never* know what BB is going to do. Should we not talk about possible draft picks then?
In other years, we know the general likelihood of available players at their draft position, we know the Pats holes, we know the "prototypical Pats", so it's a useful exercise to try to understand who they might take. There are a million permutations picking 15th or 25th or whatever, so mock drafts are useful.
Picking 3, there are a finite number of possibilities, and they are dependent upon what happens with 1 and 2.
The possibilities are something like:
- Williams falls to 3, Pats take him
- Maye falls to 3, Pats take him
- Williams and Maye go 1-2, Pats take Daniels
- Williams and Maye go 1-2, Pats take MHJ
- Williams and Maye go 1-2, Pats take T
- Williams and Maye go 1-2, Pats trade down
I mean, that's basically the list. What information does a mock draft give us for the 3rd pick?
At the beginning of the year I viewed MHJ as the only can’t miss and nothings changed. I don’t think there’s a lot of separation in the talent levels of the top 4 or 5 QBs. This feels like the TLaw year. Williams as the “the guy” then you have Maye, Daniel’s, Penix and maybe McCarthy all as guys that were probably not going that high but will be pushed up due to need. Daniel’s is giving me big AR vibes. I question whether or not either will last getting hit in the NFL. Maye has the look but recent UNC QBs Mitchy and Sam Howell haven’t exactly shown a lot. Penix is good but not great. McCarthy just threw for under 200 yards in a championship game. Literally the only guy I’ve had my eye on is Harrison and at 3 I don’t know if he’s going to be there.
Daniel's isn't nearly as athletic as AR because no one in the history of the NFL is. He's also about 40lbs lighter. Does seem to be more polished as a passer though.
It will be interesting to compare Neighbors and MHJ 5yrs from now. MHJ is the better athlete but Neighbors had a decidedly better season this year. The one concern I have with MHJ is longevity as tall big WRs tend to breakdown sooner than average size wrs. Granted you could get 8+ yrs of top level production before that happens so I'd still have him over Malik but they are closer than most give credit IMO.
It will be interesting to compare Neighbors and MHJ 5yrs from now. MHJ is the better athlete but Neighbors had a decidedly better season this year. The one concern I have with MHJ is longevity as tall big WRs tend to breakdown sooner than average size wrs. Granted you could get 8+ yrs of top level production before that happens so I'd still have him over Malik but they are closer than most give credit IMO.
\
I'm going to be very curious how Daniels grades out at the combine (if he bothers to, he probably won't). In a lot of ways he reminds me of Lamar, but without the top end speed.
Thanks for all the links, much appreciated. Looking forward to diving in when I have some time.
Totally agree. I meant AR in last years QB race. It was Stroud/Young then AR squeezed in due to his athleticism. The same thing is already happening with Daniel’s.
Yeah no times on Daniels, but rumor was 4.5 or so. Lamar time at Louisville speed day was supposedly 4.34. Daniels is definitely quick enough to run in the NFL, but the difference does change some of the ceiling on that (particularly how many more hits he takes).
I'm most interested in what kind of QB Belichick would gravitate toward in this draft. He's acquired/drafted pretty much everything under the sun (maybe expected due to his length on the job), but doesn't seem to have a prototype in terms arm/athleticism/size or even skill set.
I look at Andy Reid and who he's worked with and it seems like he prioritizes mobility and arm strength (Mahomes/McNabb/Vick and to a lesser extent, Smith) but I feel l like Bill could go a lot of directions if given the choice.
I look at Andy Reid and who he's worked with and it seems like he prioritizes mobility and arm strength (Mahomes/McNabb/Vick and to a lesser extent, Smith) but I feel l like Bill could go a lot of directions if given the choice.
Not when he is rail thin. The knock on Daniels is he doesn't avoid contact well. At 6'4 barely 200lbs he might not last against NFL LBs and DL.
Agree, mock draft results are so irrelevant right now and the above possibilities are pretty much spot on.
The draft strategy will further dilute following free agency and depending on what they will do there. Do they take a premium WR which would rule MHJ out, do they add a veteran QB via FA or trade and likely rule out a QB.
The discussion is more on the merits of each option at 3 rather than the specific player.
My gut now is that if Caleb somehow falls to 3 is that they take him otherwise it will be one of the Tackles or a trade down.
With this current offensive line and underwhelming wide reciever corps we have to have a QB that is mobile and can run. That's why drafting Mac Jones was a mistake from day one. He has always been basically a pocket passer and we rarely have a clean pocket from which he can operate.
Without knowing how he processes defenses, the issue with Daniels is his size correct? I have read very good things on his deep ball but he is very skinny/has a thin frame. I would be concerned about his ability to take a pounding from NFL defenses
That’s fair. I didn’t think the bigger AR would make it past ten weeks the way he runs and he hit the under
Yeah everything I've read about Daniels is he runs like AR when he needs to run like Lamar. If AR didn't make it 10 weeks Daniels might not last the pre-season.
Lamar was listed at 6'2" 212lbs when drafted and is listed the same now, which doesn't pass the eye test. He looks to have added 15-20 lbs. Daniels' frame looks like it could carry more weight.
Daniels was 158 when he first showed up to college in 2019, so he's added about 50+ pounds in the last 5 years.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tmj70DpEUE&t=223s
Good stuff from the Athletic (Brugler and Tice). Start with coverage of the title game as a jumping off point on Penix and McCarthy
Then talked through the top of the draft, underclassmen etc.
Good stuff from the Athletic (Brugler and Tice). Start with coverage of the title game as a jumping off point on Penix and McCarthy
Then talked through the top of the draft, underclassmen etc.
This is basically Brady's size when he was drafted. I get Brady didn't run but I don't think it's exactly impossible for a young guy to gain a few pounds.
Wow. That's even more Tyquan-esque than I thought. Here's hoping he has at least 10 more.
I was watching his highlight videos and in several, at the end of a run, he’d get hit by a defender and bounce off of them like an 8-year-old running full-throttle into Ray Lewis. And those are just college defenses comprised of 18-22 year old kids.
Just not sure, given his frame and playing style, this is a guy that’s going to bring dependable play week-in, week-out over the next 10 years. At this time last year everyone was clamoring for the 2023 Draft’s athletic monster - Richardson - who ended up lasting five weeks before destroying his shoulder on a running play.
There’s a difference between a shifty QB that creates time (Mahomes, Allen, Tua to some extent) and one that regularly runs straight at NFL LB’s and safeties with reckless abandon. The only guy I’ve seen get away with it (for the most part) is Lamar, but I’m starting to think he’s one of a kind, from another planet, and it’s a fool’s errand for a team to think it can find Lamar 2.0. There’s a reason we often say “I’ve never seen anyone like him.” Because we really haven’t.
We just have to choose wisely.
Last edited:
Josh Allen regularly runs at defenders and I’d say he gets away with it about as much as Lamar. I don’t think I’d group him with Mahomes or Tua.
If you look back at Cam Newtons playing days you might see someone who literally bowled defenders over too. Saying we haven’t seen anyone like Lamar is a little hyperbolic.
Sorry to pick nits. Your other points are valid.
If you look back at Cam Newtons playing days you might see someone who literally bowled defenders over too. Saying we haven’t seen anyone like Lamar is a little hyperbolic.
Sorry to pick nits. Your other points are valid.
Josh and Cam are built like LBs. Lamar and certainly Daniels are not. A lot easier to take on contact when you are 240-250 lbs. Lamar has a unique ability to escape contact which has kept him somewhat healthy though he has missed more time than you would want from a franchise QB, I'd put Mahomes in a similar tier to Lamar though he lacks Lamar's top end speed. Josh doesn't have to avoid contact nearly as much as Lamar or Mahomes because he can dish out punishment as much as he takes. He certainly doesn't move like Lamar or even Mahomes, much more like Cam.
Mike Vick was probably the closest we've seen to Lamar in the NFL. Blazing fast but fairly small for a QB but did a decent job avoiding contact because he wasn't built to take direct hits.
Well now we don’t have to “worry” about BB making a crazy pick that leaves us all scratching our heads.
Quite a bit; there will be several suitors. Given the multiple needs, it's not an automatic that QB1 > QB3 + the picks/talent that are saved by staying at 3.
Depends. It assumes CHI doesn't change QBs.
In that situation... future 1st, 3 and something else minor?
Could be worth it depending how you evaluate the QBs.
Yeah, I was doing a mock draft, and after getting Caleb Williams at #3 I realized he was gone.
Going to the Bears as a QB is usually a career killer but I'd be shocked if he doesn't come out.
Agreed. I want nothing to do with him or his father but it’s really screw up the Pats options if he doesn’t go 1 or 2
Has a consensus Number 1 overall pick ever not declared?
Eh, they still get Daniels or Harrison, most likely.
I'd take him in a heartbeat honestly, I find the outside stuff to be the same silliness you always hear that never matters. But also unless we trade up no chance he falls. Bigger concern is that you wither don't get a top 3 QB or have to trade up for someone probably worse than Williams.
I think it's all smoke though, apparently he posted an agency logo last night on insta. My thought is he (for good reason) doesn't want to go to Chicago and he's making a point
I think the Bears need to come out of this draft with either Williams or MHJ, which means either they stay put, or can only trade down a couple spots. I think they need to sell WAS/NE on either the idea that they’re taking Williams if they stay at #1, or that one of the other teams picking in the top 3 has offered a king’s ransom for the #1 pick. If the Bears are okay coming out of the draft with no Williams and no MHJ, that changes the math, but I don’t think that’s the case and I think their potential trade partners are pretty limited.