It’s also got to matter what your FO will have them doing when they land. If you’re pocket qb only, better have a line. If you’re ok arm multi-tool, better get a creative offensive coach. If you’re limited but reliable, better land defense first. Some situations can’t be saved by a qb, so there you just have to be tough.
Penix would make me nervous. He’s older than the others (will be 24 when the next season starts) and is a relatively late riser. His O line performed very well which might have masked slow processing. His WR room was among the best in college football, if not the best. No doubt he had a good game against Texas and a lot can change with another good game tonight, but he had so many advantages this season compared to the others that can cover up his flaws.
There is gonna be a lot of mental masturbation over who is the ideal #3 choice or best trade between now and April. Thank goodness for the Bs and Cs.
I watched every one of his games and he definitely has flaws. But the slow processing stuff feels like some scout used it before the season and it just kept getting repeated by the hive evaluation mind online. Ditto some but not all of the other negatives about him - he definitely had to adjust in the middle of the season with shorter throws for example.
Yep, to reiterate (and/or add to this)...
Highly disagree that Maye didn’t have an elite set of players
Agree. This wasn't Bama WRs running wide open and Mac having a 10 yard window to get the ball to him. Penix was dropping dimes.
I was commenting on this year
If Drake Mayes talent was elite, what would we call the talent around Penix or Daniels? Ultra uber elite?
I think the Mac argument is far more about his line, his line is ridiculously stacked, won best line of the year award
My point was specifically about pass catchers.
Thank you for the detail and backstory.
Well, if they took Harrison or a tackle at 3 they could look at those guys if they are there at their 2nd pick or could use the 2nd pick to trade up to get one of them if they were interested.
Not really he's saying with the 3rd pick you don't HAVE to take a chance, you can just scoop one of the 3 top tier (or second tier depending how you view the gaps there) QBs. Sure they could choose to punt on the chance at one of the elite prospects and draft one of the lesser prospects later, but they don't have to (also shouldn't unless they have another plan for a trade).
They could, and we're along way out from the draft, b
Sure, but last night suggests that if they want to take a QB, neither of those guys are worth the risk involved in trading back.
Fair, but I hope one game doesn't really move the needle on a guy that much.
It doesn't, neither of those guys was ever seriously considered in the same tier as the top 3 guys (or top 2 plus Daniels depending who you ask). Penix got some hype train helium off the Texas game, but most QB evaluators were saying "hold on, his tape does not look like that overall, wait until he faces Michigan and you'll see the flaws"
So what happens if the 2nd round QB busts? You have a Cousins type for 2 years, go like 10-7, then what? Right back at square one, probably with a middle of the pack draft pick.
I think the one game that did move the needle for Penix was the semifinal.
This has been my feeling as well. Obviously, nothing is certain, but the Pats need a QB to build around, and their top 3 pick in this draft gives them that opportunity. You don't get cute.
That's certainly what I hope happens.
Honestly to me, if you don't have a grade on the QB there, you either trade up or out. The value proposition on using a pick that even one other team in the league sees as a franchise QB spot on a non-QB is terrible.
As someone firmly planted in the MHJ camp, this is a great point.
I would wager large amounts of money on the Bears trading Fields and taking a QB at #1. Fields just hasn't shown enough and will be expensive soon. And while last year's trade with Carolina turned out to be a total masterstroke, I think passing up on a chance to draft a franchise QB once to give Fields another shot probably makes it less likely that they'll do it again. If Ryan Poles takes Caleb Williams he buys himself a 2-3 year window to build a team around Williams with plenty of other draft capital whereas if he trades this pick, keeps Fields, and the offense struggles next year, he's under a huge amount of pressure with people saying he passed on franchise QBs year-after-year.
If they move on from Fields, maybe the best bet is to trade a 2025 and 2026 contingent pick for him and also to draft a 2nd tier QB in a loaded QB draft in the 2nd or 3rd this year. Draft MHJ with the 3rd pick.
Unless the Patriots sign a more established QB before the draft, which is possible, I don't see them having any leverage in trading down with Arizona. Yes, they could theoretically trade the #3 pick to someone else, but I see no chance the Patriots pass up the chance of Maye, Williams, or Daniels and instead see who is left at someone lower in the top 10. Everyone knows they need a QB.
As far as I'm concerned, the only stone cold locks this far out from the draft is that Caleb, Maye and MHJ are going in the top 5.
