There's a world where Bears decide they want MHJ and can't orchestrate a trade down.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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It's also been said multiple times in this forum that LAC is $45M over the cap for next year. Herbert's top three receivers are on the wrong side of 30, and his other WR on the right side of 30 is constantly hurt (Williams, he missed more than half the season this year).
On Defense, Mack and Bosa need to be restructured significantly but that likely won't happen as they are both over 30 and making more than $30M each. They are both likely to be traded with LAC holding part of that bag. Moreover, another 5 defensive starters are FA.
It's not as nearly as attractive as you are making it out to be and, even though Herbert has had some weapons, the Chargers are not in any position to be a real contender next season.
Why would either of those going top 2 be a good thing? I want to see a defensive player generate some helium and go top 2 as I don't think NE needs to invest any more draft capital into the top several rounds of the draft. Having Daniels and MHJ available at 3 is a good thing IMO. I'm still not 100% sold on Maye, seemed to have a very similar Jr and Sr year. Will need to see what the experts who grind a lot more tape have to say before I'm comfortable with him at 3.
In this case, no coach of any team should have ever been traded in NFL history. Because they could just wait to be fired. Then hired by the new team. But you keep forgetting RKK owns the coaching and GM rights to BB. That’s leverage for not only him, but teams that reach out to him.
RKK wants to do what’s best for the NEP.
Because the poster wants Williams or Maye and one of those other guys going in top 2 means one of those is available?
Coaches get traded when the coach no longer wants to coach for the team he is under contract for but the owner does not want to release him from his contract.
Is that the situation here?
Edit: That’s only leverage for Kraft if he wants BB back and BB doesn’t want to come back. This isn’t a hard concept. If Kraft wants BB gone he has no leverage.
Well, to my understanding if Washington hires Belichick he will probably take a safety at 2.
Yep. Had Arizona held on, they would've picked 4th had they beaten the Jets.
EDIT: My bad, 4th. I double counted NE.
I knew I should have looked that up. I remember his playing against Brady in the 2018 playoff season and just thought he must be over 30. Point stands though.
So I really don't think the Bears trade down because I think they take their QB at 1, but....
In 2018 3 to 6 cost three 2nds.
In 2017 moving up one spot from 3 to 2 cost two 3rds and a 4th
In 2012 moving from 6 to 2 cost two additional 1st and a 2nd.
So I'd guess future 1st? Maybe a couple 2nds and 3rds?
Oh, now that I look at it, I think you're right. Think they just would have flopped spots with AZ, who sits at #4, and stayed above Chargers, who sit at #5.
In any event, I'm happy they lost and got 3.
I agree with all of this. But Bill may be looking at a 5-8 year window. He may use next year to get their cap right. By years two or three he’s built the team that he wants. Who knows?
Again, I’m going off of the rumor about CK, LAC having a stable quarterback situation, and the owner likely wanting to make a splash with the Rams having already won a Super Bowl.
But Bill may go to Washington. Or Dallas. Or Martha’s Vineyard. Who knows? The point is he has trade value - arguably among the highest for coaches in NFL history - and RKK didn’t build a net worth of $11 billion being a complete fool. If a trade is to be had, it’s almost certainly already been discussed.
If not, and I’m way off on the trade value of Bill Belichick, Bill will likely just be fired. But I’m willing to bet neither Bill or Robert want the “divorce” to happen that way.
The idea that the Pats will get any meaningful compensation for BB seems insane to me.
there will likely be a “mutual parting of ways”, a fairly generic “we appreciate everything Bill did, he’s the best ever” statement from Kraft and that will be that.
I just hope Kraft lets his new GM pick the coach and doesn’t force Mayo into the HC spot.
there will likely be a “mutual parting of ways”, a fairly generic “we appreciate everything Bill did, he’s the best ever” statement from Kraft and that will be that.
I just hope Kraft lets his new GM pick the coach and doesn’t force Mayo into the HC spot.
Can RKK just say to Bill "we aren't firing you but we are retaining your rights incase anyone wants you?"
I keep seeing RKK has no leverage. If he fires BB, he's on the hook for the $25M (or whatever) anyways. If it's a sunk cost why not just retain his rights and hire a new GM and HC?
I keep seeing RKK has no leverage. If he fires BB, he's on the hook for the $25M (or whatever) anyways. If it's a sunk cost why not just retain his rights and hire a new GM and HC?
I think he can ... which is the only leverage Kraft might have.
But I think they shake hands and part ways.
I think this is what people are missing. Pair that with Bill is what, 71? And wants to beat Shula’s wins record.
LAC also has one of the bottom 5(?) owners in the NFL. A cheap, greedy, bombastic, publicity hound failson. I suspect that's pretty important to BB if he wants to relocate.
No Kraft cannot do that. Kraft cannot keep Bill Belichick from being an NFL coach in 2024. Either he coaches the Patriots which he is under contract to do, or he gets fired and he’s free to go coach somewhere else.
What Kraft gets by allowing him to go elsewhere is that whatever salary he earns from the new team will offset what the Patriots owe him.
But no, there is no scenario in which Kraft can prevent Bill from coaching a team next year.
What Kraft gets by allowing him to go elsewhere is that whatever salary he earns from the new team will offset what the Patriots owe him.
But no, there is no scenario in which Kraft can prevent Bill from coaching a team next year.
Uh no? You either fire him or he's employed in his job. You can't prevent him from working but not release him from the contract
Assuming they don’t have a healthy working relationship at all (which is at the heart of what you’re saying, and not at all what I believe):
Kraft says “Bill, I’m hiring a GM, you’re just the coach now.”
Bill says, “yeah that’s not going to happen.”
Kraft says, “okay, so you’re not honoring your contract? Enjoy sitting on the beach on the Cape, pulling months off the calendar, sitting firmly behind Shula, while I own your rights indefinitely.”
Of course Bill is incentivized to play ball with RKK. C’mon.
No, he can’t do that. Bill Belichick is coach and GM and CEO (or whatever title he has) of the NEP. If Kraft wants to bring in a GM over Bill and Bill doesn’t want him to, he can’t. Unless he fires him. And he can’t just park him on the sideline and pay him to do nothing.
Kraft could do whatever he wants to make the last year awful for Bill. Add a million assistants. Fire his kids. Add “assistant GMs.” We don’t even know if Bill isn’t under separate contracts for each role.
You really think Bill is the one hanging RKK over a barrel? No chance.
Right because in an effort to extract compensation for BB, Kraft is going to sabotage an entire season of his football team to make life miserable for BB.
Look, man, you can die on this hill but you are wrong. Kraft cannot keep Bill Belichick from coaching an NFL team next year. If it is the Pats, it is because Kraft wants him back, if it isn’t it is because Kraft is done with him and BB has zero incentive to do anything to weaken the team he would be going to if he doesn’t have to. And he doesn’t have to.
That's just not realistic. Sabotage next season for spite? I mean, wow.
There are no barrels. If Kraft wants him gone, and he doesn't want to go, Kraft needs to fire him.
I’m not saying he’s going to do those things. I’m saying RKK is in control of the whole operation.
Not Bill. And without knowing how the contract is structured, no one can say what RKK can and can’t do. He may very well be able to fire Bill from the GM role and keep in the HC role.
We have no idea. Or demote some of the coaching staff and promote who he wants regardless of what Bill wants. He already did that: see, O’Brien, Bill.
Not Bill. And without knowing how the contract is structured, no one can say what RKK can and can’t do. He may very well be able to fire Bill from the GM role and keep in the HC role.
We have no idea. Or demote some of the coaching staff and promote who he wants regardless of what Bill wants. He already did that: see, O’Brien, Bill.
This is the most ridiculous post I've ever read in this forum. I take that back, the second most ridiculous behind post 1,380. Kraft can't do any of that and wouldn't if he could. It's insane. If he's gonna move on, he's gonna move on.
And what Dogman said. Though the BB thread seems to be all about QB's now, lol...
I have an impossible dream of trading down and drafting Penix and Odunze. But even Penix and a different big time receiving threat could be nice.
I think this is going to be really interesting the next couple months.
Assuming the Bears want to keep Fields and draft Marvin Harrison Jr., and assuming the Patriots agree that the consensus top two QBs are elite prospects and they want one, can they play enough poker to convince Chicago that they'll be happy to sit at #3 and if the top two QBs are gone we'll just take Harrison? Or we'll trade down and let someone else take him.
Can they at least convince Chicago, you need us as much as we need you and get their QB without paying through the nose to do so?
I don't think it's particularly impossible. Might not have to trade down at all, Penix going in the 1st round is far from a given.
In fact, he's still in the 3rd round in some mocks. Although, I doubt he slips that far.
I think Penix earned himself a top 10 pick with his play against Texas. If he has another night like that tomorrow, I think it is a guarantee.
I think this will come down to the medical screenings. There's been some chatter of teams taking him off their board completely. I don't really buy it, but those are major red flags for a top 10 pick.
I really doubt it. One good game against a bad secondary did not change how scouts who've been watching him for 5 years feel about him. A big game against Michigan might help since that's a good D, but even then.... given the medicals I kinda doubt it. The best thing about Texas was he showed good mobility, more so than the stats.
I don't. He had 4,600 yards and a total of, what, 38 TDs this season. The mobility he showed, the accuracy on deep balls, and his mechanics are all pretty damn great.
The last guy to do what Penix did was Mahomes and Mahomes went #10. Mahomes never sniffed the National Championship either.
Mahomes was the NFL MVP in his age 23 season. If he was able to play college for six seasons and transfer at will, he might have gotten a bit closer.
I mean... Mahomes was several years younger, had 2 less torn ACLs and 2 less shoulder surgeries, he also played on a bad team not on a loaded offense behind arguably the best line in college.
Stats mean very little in isolation, plenty of the highest performers by stats aren't NFL caliber, or end up busts, others put up mediocre stats and are good pros.
Penix's mechanics are okay, but he's had a lot of inconsistency with them this year, lot of hitching, his reads of coverage have been generally inconsistent. He's an interesting player, but his tape isn't overall what you'd usually consider 1st round tape, he throws a nice deep ball, but struggles with touch and placement on intermediates, and he's almost a reverse (NFL) Mac Jones, he avoids the middle of the field because he doesn't like (or see through) the traffic.
Though actually the last guy to do what Penix did was probably one of Mac Jones, Joe Burrow or Dwayne Haskins, depending how you want to define "what he's doing" (or Bailey Zappe if we don't limit it to power conferences).
I can see the case for a team falling in love with Penix and drafting him mid-1st, I think late 1st is more likely.
The last guy to do what Penix did was Mahomes? Statistically?
Last year, Caleb Williams had 4,500 yards, 42tds and 5ints (and another 10 rushing touchdowns)
In 2021, Bryce Young had 4,870 yards, 47tds and 7ints, Stroud had 4,400 yards, 44tds and 6 ints.
In 2020, Mac Jones had 4,500 yards, 41tds and 4 ints, went undefeated and won a natty playing one less game than Penix has already played this season.
Mahomes never had a season in college as good as any of those guys.
Not saying Mahomes isn't obviously better, but college stats are almost meaningless.
Shit, in Bailey Zappe's one season at Western Kentucky, he threw for 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns.
That's fair.
I think his medicals won't scare off teams. He has a healthy season and was spectacular, I don't agree with bolded at all, and the NFL is a QB starved league. His performance this season, and in the Semifinal are enough for me to think he will go top 10.