Hmm. Pick Maye at 2 or trade down to WAS (3 or 4) and pick either Daniels or MHJ? Wonder what kind of picks the new WAS management would give up.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Pshaw. They're trading down for a draft haul and giving us all a huge drink of Kool-Aid. Hopefully it works out better than Jonestown.Also in on Daniels. Not sure what this has to do with the Offensive Guard pool that BB is looking at with his first rounder though.
Or trade down with the Bears (so that they can have Williams/MHJ) at 5-7 for DJ Moore and a future first.
Carolina doesn't have a 1st round pick and the Chargers can't get into the top 5 really and have Herbert so I doubt he trades up unless it's for MHJ?
So you take this year's #2 (at start of second round), and next year's #1 and toss them a #3 or something. Then you pick like #2/3, #33 and #34/35 or something.
For when you pick a QB during the rebuild, I have to assume that even with a top rookie qb you are still looking at a 10-15 pick the following year. So you can use that to get the other pieces like TE WR or line.
not sure it works in reverse, because a fillerQB with Harrison(and a normal healthy d) will take you out of the running for a top 10 pick and the top rated 2025 qbs.
not sure it works in reverse, because a fillerQB with Harrison(and a normal healthy d) will take you out of the running for a top 10 pick and the top rated 2025 qbs.
Maye's "supporting cast at North Carolina did him few favors..."
He'll feel right at home in Foxboro.
He'll feel right at home in Foxboro.
This. If you have a chance to pick a franchise QB without trading up, you pretty much have to do it.
Unless the team picking 3rd or 4th absolutely blows you out of the water with an offer and you have Daniels and Maye identical....but I think there's a very slim chance of that happening. Just take the guy you want
People love to talk about how BB traded their 1st rounder and still got Gonzalez at 17. They got the 120th pick in the draft and took a huge risk. I'm all for not getting cute, if they have a QB they want, just draft him within reason. Trading from 2 to 8 and hoping it lasts is an awful idea.
Well he also traded from 21 to 29 and got Cole Strange, so clearly he knows what he's doing
If Daniels rises during the draft workout process like people expect, there are going to be 3 QB's taken in the top 4. QB isn't a position to fuck around with and try to get cute.
There will be a team that is willing to give up a lot to move up to get one
Curiously, does anyone know if we've had years where a quarterback was NOT taken in the top 3? Given the importance of the position, it seems like somebody is almost always going to take a QB - no matter if they are "top 3 pick" worthy or not. It's also entirely possible that there is always a "top 3 pick worthy" QB every year and nobody is actually reaching. Hard to say, because it's not like we can really objectively measure the quality of the players all that much and compare year to year where someone should really be picked.
None Dope Hat: I'm still awed that you actually asked this question. Seriously? Bailey Zappe as starter next year over drafting potential franchise QBs like Williams, Maye, or Daniels?
Did you watch the second half of the Pitt game? The Giants game? The Chargers game? The end of the Indy game? (No need to answer, we know you did) He is and has been horrible. He has been really, really bad in limited reps since he was drafted. He does have a little more zip on his passes than Mac, moves around in the pocket better than Mac, but his accuracy, his decision making, and his progressions are all shit. His ceiling, at best, is backup. More than likely it is 3rd/emergency QB/Practice Squad. One half of football against a pretty bad team doesn't move the needle at all on Zappe. In fact, the other half likely does and not in a good way.
Dope Hat: Every thought that pops into YOUR head does not need to be posted. Seriously. It's ok to not post or attempt to drive all conversation sometimes.
I see a lot of early career Jerry Rice in Thornton. He is tall and fast which is basically Jerry Rice.
Brady and winning did that. Mac only exasperated it with losing.
Way faster, at least by his 40 time. He'll probably become the GOAT, honestly. His physical profile is borderline Randy Moss.
2022 didn't have a QB taken in the 1st round until #20 overall (Kenny Pickett). The next QBs off the board were in the 3rd round (Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Matt Corral). Then Zappe (4th round) and Sam Howell (5th round). And finally, Mr. Irrelevant (Brock Purdy).
I remember in 2022 there were multiple articles and mock drafts from the draft-media-industrial-complex about how Malik Willis was going to go in the top 10 picks. Turns out, teams don't reach thaat much.
I think QB busts in the 1st round are more "it's really fucking hard to evaluate who can play QB in the NFL" and less teams "reaching" because of need.
First QB in 2013 was EJ Manuel at 16. He was the only QB selected in the 1st. Then Geno went to the Jets at 39 and Glennon at 73. That was it for the first 3 rounds.
Good pull. What's interesting about this is that all 3 guys have had passable (or better) NFL careers.
Edit: kind of ditto 2022, to be honest. This is, on balance, a pretty good draft class. Right? Almost all of these guys are legit NFL QBs. And one may be purdy good.
If BB had drafted EJ at 16 and he had the same career, we'd have been at Gillette with pitchforks and torches.
The other side of that coin is nit-picking Williams and Maye to death such that they pass on them like the 49ers, Browns, Jets, and others passed on Watson (#12) and Mahomes (#10).
2022... no not really, you forget that all of the busts you remember... you're forgetting that most of them played several years. 2022 looks a lot like it's going to be Purdy and nobody else gets a 5th year. Pickett is probably done after this year as a starter, same with Ridder. Willis is 3rd string and on his way out of the league, Corral is out
Bailey could help his cause with a couple more Ws so they miss out on the QB the Patriots want. That's obviously going to be hard. I believe the Patriots are underdogs in the remaining 4 games.
Howell seems on pace to get a 2nd deal. I think the jury is out on Pickett. That coaching situation with Canada was bad, but the rest of the guys in 2022 suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck, aside from Purdy.
No.
Manuel: 6-12 record, 58.1% completion, 20/16 TD/INT, 77.1 rating.
Jones: 18-24 record, 66.1% completion, 46/36 TD/INT, 85.8 rating.
Tough to rate in some ways, Manuel was the opposite of Mac in that he started bad and then seemed to get a bit better. Never got a real shot though, 10 games as a rookie, 4 in his 2nd year. Got hurt year 1, year 2 they were 2-2 and he looked to be improving when Marrone benched him for a vet. Marrone then quit and Rex Ryan brought in Taylor to start over him.
Manuel probably was never going to be anything, but he got one of the worse shots at it of a recent 1st round rookie.
Did he? He was local kid, so he was followed pretty closely here. He had two 5-game stretches of starting in his rookie year, then those 4 games at start of second year:
First 5 games: 57% completion, <200 yards/game, 5/3 TD/INT, 79.4 rating, 2-3 record.
Sat out 4 games
Last 5 games: 61% completion, <200 yards/game, 6/6 TD/INT, 76.0 rating, 2-3 record.
First 4 games: 58% completion, 209 yards/game, 5/3 TD/INT, 80.3 rating, 2-2 record.
I guess you can squint and say that second year was slightly better, but it's so close it could also be noise. Two good games, backslid, benched. Similar to Mac, I guess, but nothing in numbers would say he's better than Mac.
Looking at year 2 vs year 1... TD% up a bit, INT% down a good amount, cut his SK% which led to a significant increase in AN/A... the underlying stuff looks a lot better... still bad, but improving some of the key areas you want to see improvement in.
I guess Manuel > Mac was an exaggeration, but I was thinking more Mac since the year 1 bye:
64.3%, 30:28, 81.1 rating, 9-20 record.
64.3%, 30:28, 81.1 rating, 9-20 record.
This years QB class looks like a better version of last years class.
Caleb is a bigger version of Bryce Young with an all around better tool set, both thrive on making plays outside the pocket.
Maye is a better version of Will Levis. Both have big arms and are mobile but not dual threat, neither played on great teams in college which suppressed their stats.
Daniels isn't quite as athletic as AR since no one in the history of football is but he is a much more polished passer at this stage of his career this one is probably a toss up.
Stroud has a lot of similarities to Penix, great supporting cast, can make all the throws. Obviously you would take Stroud today but coming out I think they will be viewed similar. No one predicted a historic season from Stroud, he wasn't even expected to be the 2nd QB drafted as of draft night. I don't think Penix goes before the top 3 but when it comes to the draft who knows.
HM to Hendon Hooker and Jordan Travis, both over aged QBs both suffer significant injuries in sr. season.
Caleb is a bigger version of Bryce Young with an all around better tool set, both thrive on making plays outside the pocket.
Maye is a better version of Will Levis. Both have big arms and are mobile but not dual threat, neither played on great teams in college which suppressed their stats.
Daniels isn't quite as athletic as AR since no one in the history of football is but he is a much more polished passer at this stage of his career this one is probably a toss up.
Stroud has a lot of similarities to Penix, great supporting cast, can make all the throws. Obviously you would take Stroud today but coming out I think they will be viewed similar. No one predicted a historic season from Stroud, he wasn't even expected to be the 2nd QB drafted as of draft night. I don't think Penix goes before the top 3 but when it comes to the draft who knows.
HM to Hendon Hooker and Jordan Travis, both over aged QBs both suffer significant injuries in sr. season.
Alex Barth on TSH said in the last 10 years (the time he researched) no team in the first round has traded back and taken a QB.
If teams value a guy to be their next QB they aren't going to trade back a few picks to collect an extra 3rd/4th rounder and then take him.
If the Pats are picking, say, 4th and they think Daniels can be their franchise QB they aren't trading back and then drafting him.
If teams value a guy to be their next QB they aren't going to trade back a few picks to collect an extra 3rd/4th rounder and then take him.
If the Pats are picking, say, 4th and they think Daniels can be their franchise QB they aren't trading back and then drafting him.
This seems incredibly unfair to Stroud. He was a considerably better prospect that Penix and its not close. You seem to be misremembering because the betting futures had stroud as the #1 pick right up until the last week or two before the draft. Heres an article from the 2nd week of April that shows the betting odds (Stroud was -250 to -300 to be the first pick). https://www.inquirer.com/sports/betting/nfl/nfl-draft-betting-top-pick-cj-stroud-bryce-young-20230406.html
Simply put Stroud was a clear first round grade and would easily be a top 10 pick in the 2023 draft. Penix, I suspect, will not have a first round grade from most teams and definitely isnt going top 10.
Yeah Stroud was like a tier 3 QB prospect (and I mean that in a good way) a clear 1st rounder, but not a no doubt #1. He'd be QB 3 or 4 in this class depending how you feel about Daniels who I think most see as alos a tier 3 guy... Maye and Williams are Tier 2, Tier 1 is the Lawrence, Luck, Manning tier.
Penix is a round 2 or 3 guy... older, multiple major injuries, concerns about his release, motion, mobility, etc. He's not even a Mac Jones level prospect for most. You're talking more Malik Willis or Kyle Trask level of QB prospect.
That extra practice in the bye week reality took a toll!
Just looking back on the QB trail for the Bills from Bledsoe in 2004 to Allen in 2018 (Losman, Trent Edwards, Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm, Tyrod Taylor, Kyle Orton, Thad Lewis, Manuel, Matt Cassel...among others) is horrifying. If ever there was a cautionary tale on not passing on a top QB in the draft, that's it.
Yeah, agreed. Stroud clearly wasnt a top tier guy who only comes out every 5-10 years, but he was a pretty clean eval as a first rounder, which as a QB generally means you;'re worst case going top 10.
I could see a scenario where Penix gets nabbed at 25-30, but QBs going that late in the first round really arent true 1st round grades; they are guys that teams like enough and sometimes you need to go a half round to round early on QBs if you want them. Like Malik Willis, I suspect he ends up not being close to the first round and goes in the 50-100 range.
These are pretty much my exact thoughts.
However, I will point out that some people (notably Matt Miller at ESPN) think Caleb is a better prospect than Trevor Lawrence
Carolina won.
If the Pats had lost that fucking Steelers game, we'd be tied for worst record.
Damnit.
If the Pats had lost that fucking Steelers game, we'd be tied for worst record.
Damnit.
We're going to savor that big win over the Steelers for years to come. It always feels good to beat them.
The Bears are going to pick the wrong QB or ruin him. It’s what they do.
We are going to beat the Jets at home if they are without Rodgers or Wilson...and I don't think Rodgers is playing again this season.
Hope the Commanders win a game.
Hope the Commanders win a game.
CAR SOS through early games .5234 (123-112 - ATLx2 (12-16), TBx2 (14-14), NOx2 (14-14), JAX (8-5)*, IND (8-6), TEN (5-9), HOU (8-6), MIA (10-4), MIN (7-7), DET (10-4), GB (6-8), CHI (5-9), DAL (10-3)*, SEA (6-7)*)
NE SOS through early games .5236 (122-111 - NYJx2 (10-18), BUFx2 (14-12)*, MIAx2 (20-8), PHI (10-3)*, DAL (10-3)*, WAS (4-9)*, NYG (5-9), NO (7-7), LV (6-8), DEN (7-7), KC (9-5), LAC (5-9), IND (8-6), PIT (7-7))
*Does not incl current week results
If SEA beats PHI on MNF, that would a one-game SOS swing in NE's favor.
NE SOS through early games .5236 (122-111 - NYJx2 (10-18), BUFx2 (14-12)*, MIAx2 (20-8), PHI (10-3)*, DAL (10-3)*, WAS (4-9)*, NYG (5-9), NO (7-7), LV (6-8), DEN (7-7), KC (9-5), LAC (5-9), IND (8-6), PIT (7-7))
*Does not incl current week results
If SEA beats PHI on MNF, that would a one-game SOS swing in NE's favor.
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Everyone is talking about the Jets but the Pats are probably going to beat the Broncos next week.
3-11 ARI loses but has a significantly higher SOS than NE. NE still in the #2 spot after this week.
2-12 CAR SOS through afternoon games .5190 (123-114 - ATLx2 (12-16), TBx2 (14-14), NOx2 (14-14), JAX (8-6), IND (8-6), TEN (5-9), HOU (8-6), MIA (10-4), MIN (7-7), DET (10-4), GB (6-8), CHI (5-9), DAL (10-4), SEA (6-7)*)
3-11 NE SOS through afternoon games .5232 (124-113 - NYJx2 (10-18), BUFx2 (16-12), MIAx2 (20-8), PHI (10-3)*, DAL (10-4), WAS (4-10), NYG (5-9), NO (7-7), LV (6-8), DEN (7-7), KC (9-5), LAC (5-9), IND (8-6), PIT (7-7))
*Does not include MNF results
2-12 CAR SOS through afternoon games .5190 (123-114 - ATLx2 (12-16), TBx2 (14-14), NOx2 (14-14), JAX (8-6), IND (8-6), TEN (5-9), HOU (8-6), MIA (10-4), MIN (7-7), DET (10-4), GB (6-8), CHI (5-9), DAL (10-4), SEA (6-7)*)
3-11 NE SOS through afternoon games .5232 (124-113 - NYJx2 (10-18), BUFx2 (16-12), MIAx2 (20-8), PHI (10-3)*, DAL (10-4), WAS (4-10), NYG (5-9), NO (7-7), LV (6-8), DEN (7-7), KC (9-5), LAC (5-9), IND (8-6), PIT (7-7))
*Does not include MNF results
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