Even more bizaare, they beat the Texans who are decent, and Young outplayed Stroud
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
I'm kind of worried about Thursday. A Trubitsky led Steelers offense could easily match the Patriots punt for punt and we could see a game decided on a special teams touchdown or blocked FG or something.
But if we can pull off that loss, I have to think that 60% number shoots up pretty significantly given the remainder of the schedule.
But if we can pull off that loss, I have to think that 60% number shoots up pretty significantly given the remainder of the schedule.
I think the hope is that for some reason there will be one or two coverage miscommunications that leave Pickens wide open - that could lead to 10 points right there.
Let's hope so. Hitting double digits has proven to be an insurmountable advantage lately.
Pickens will go 7/150/1 and Thornton will have a ball bounce off his face mask leading to the pivotal game-losing INT.
If it comes down to a special teams game, I have confidence that we can lose. The ST have been better this year but still aren't anything great.
Confused why people think Trubisky is some big downgrade. The Steelers aren't worse with him than Pickett, honestly in a real competiton he might beat out Pickett.
I don't see him as a huge downgrade at all and wasn't trying to imply that. They're both awful.
The CIN game was the first game post Canada who shoulders a lot of the blame in PIT and they did have over 400 total yards offense that game.
Obviously the AZ game doesn't count since he was knocked out with 1/2 the game to play. I don't think Pickett is good but I do think he is better than Trubisky especially for a game Trubisky will have had no practice reps before starting. Those zero INTs are important on the Pickett stat sheet as I fully expect Thursday to be a defensive slopfest with the team turning it over the most losing. Neither offense is marching the football 80+yds consistently.
Obviously the AZ game doesn't count since he was knocked out with 1/2 the game to play. I don't think Pickett is good but I do think he is better than Trubisky especially for a game Trubisky will have had no practice reps before starting. Those zero INTs are important on the Pickett stat sheet as I fully expect Thursday to be a defensive slopfest with the team turning it over the most losing. Neither offense is marching the football 80+yds consistently.
Interestingly according to Tankathon, NE and Car currently have the same SOS. Division and conference wouldn't come into play in that scenario nor would H2H. Best record in common games, min of 4, would be next followed by strength of victory.
The thing Pickett does as well as anyone is not turn the ball over. He's not being asked in this offense to make plays on his own. He's got a total of 4 ints on the season (only 6tds), and he has only fumbled the ball twice all season.
Pittsburgh is sitting at 7-5, because they only have 10 turnovers, and their defense has created 20. Their #2 receiver, Diontae Johnson was hurt and missed 4 games. Their TE, Freiermuth missed 5 games, so they were running the corpse of Allen Robinson out there over and over again. Pickens is great at contested catches, but he's still rounding into a receiver.
I think Tomlin is using the model that Bill was trying to use here, except Pickett has taken care of the ball. Bend don't break on defense (they are 22nd in yards given up, but only 6th in points against), and control the ball on offense without turning it over. They are the #1 offense in football in drives ending in turnover (6.7%).
This sounds like we need to root for a Carolina win, and keep rooting for the Bills to lose?
Pretty much root for any team we played that they don't to lose. They have the Saints and Falcons the next 2 weeks, so there's a chance, but then it's Packers and Jags before ending with Buccaneers. So 3 games they have a puncher's chance in.
For shits and giggles I simulated the rest of the season on ESPN's playoff machine using current winning percentage. Then I tallied up the opponent wins and counted ties as half wins.
NE opp wins 152 (.526)
Car opp wins 157.5 (.545)
Of course we need Car to find a way to lose one along the way as well. But the point is that the SOS could potentially be in a similar ballpark. A game like SNF last night is good for us. KC only plays us and GB only plays Car.
NE opp wins 152 (.526)
Car opp wins 157.5 (.545)
Of course we need Car to find a way to lose one along the way as well. But the point is that the SOS could potentially be in a similar ballpark. A game like SNF last night is good for us. KC only plays us and GB only plays Car.
Mel on Daniels. If we don't end up with Williams or Maye do we draft Daniels or Harrison Jr.?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39033068/jayden-daniels-lsu-tigers-2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-projection-pick-heisman
https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39033068/jayden-daniels-lsu-tigers-2024-nfl-draft-scouting-report-projection-pick-heisman
Any good snippets for us poor folk?
Just looking at his game logs he seemed to feast on the cupcakes and struggle a little with the big boys.
My biggest question from this article is how on earth does Mel have seven QB prospects ranked ahead of Penix?
Once you get to "not gonna be an NFL starting QB" it doesn't really matter what order.
I could see it BTW you could make a case for:
Williams, Maye, Daniels, McCarthy, Sanders, Nix pretty easily, many people have some or all 6 ahead of Penix, then you get into Beck, Ewers, Leonard.
PFF has him 5th
Brugler hasn't put out updated ranks, but he put out a top 50 in November... it had 7 QBs in it: Maye, Williams, McCarthy, Sanders, Daniels, Ewers and Beck, Penix didn't make it.
Edit- I bet at least 2 of those go back to school though so Penix almost certainly goes top 5 QBs.
I had put it in the actual "draft" thread but the one knock I'm starting to hear about Daniels that gives me pause is that he is reckless with his body and plays like he is much bigger than he is. 6'4" 210 is quite thin for a QB that thrives outside the pocket. Not sure if he can handle the rigors of the NFL when he is getting consistently hit by 280lb+ LBs/DL. Seems like he will be the ultimate boom/bust prospect, if he can figure out how to protect himself he could be Lamar lite. If he can't he might not last a full season as starter and end up constantly injured.
So the Patriots use their banked win tonight.
Still in 2nd, but winning a 4th could hypothetically slot them anywhere between 2nd and 5th I think (maybe 6th but I don't think so) depending on results of games by teams with 4 wins (and Arizona) going forward and how SOS shakes out.
Still in 2nd, but winning a 4th could hypothetically slot them anywhere between 2nd and 5th I think (maybe 6th but I don't think so) depending on results of games by teams with 4 wins (and Arizona) going forward and how SOS shakes out.
No problem. They’ll miss out on the top 2 QBs and just grab Penix or Daniels or someone in one of the later rounds.
Let’s not get hasty here. We’re still talking about Bailey Zappe, a perfectly cromulent OL, and a group of skill players led by a corpse named Juju.
Eh. Even if they slide to #5, Williams-Maye-MHJ going #1-3 means either Daniels or Fashanu will be a Patriot.
We may end up, with luck, with an Andy Dalton or a Derek Carr. Is 4-5 wins this season worth it?
I was being sarcastic. Have people saying that they'll pick a WR or LT in the top 5 and then grab some good QB later in the draft, no problem.
That's true of anyone in this draft not named Williams, and opinons are not unanimous on him, either.
But Dalton? A decade of competence and stability at the most important position? That's a pretty good draft.
A lot can change between now and draft day, I'm a Daniels guy and I'm increasingly worried he won't be there at 3 let alone 5 or 6.
If Pats lose the next 3 and go into Jets game on 3 losses, here are the 4-win teams:
Washington (4-9): Rams, Jets, SF, Dallas. Off this week, but puncher's chance against Rams and pick' em against Jets. No chance in last 2. We are even on SOS right now.
Chicago (4-8): Detroit, Cleveland, Arizona, Atlanta, GB. The Arizona game is the big one--one of those teams is getting a loss. Chance they could pick off Atlanta as well. Their SOS is their trump card though. It's .471 vs. our .524.
Jets (4-8): Houston, Miami, Washington, Cleveland, NE. The Washington is HUGE. One team getting to 5 wins and likely pushing them behind the Pats. SOS similar to NE.
Giants (4-8): GB, NO, Philly, Rams, Philly. NO and Rams best bets. SOS similar to ours.
Tennessee: (4-8): Miami, Houston, Seattle, Houston, Jacksonville. SOS is .537, but a decently tough schedule. Hopefully they can pick off Seattle at home.
So, upshot, let's lock in Carolina at #1.
Then Washington/Jets will get to 5 wins. Chicago/Arizona could also knock one of them to 5 wins or the other to 4, and behind us on SoS. So of the 6 teams besides NE on 3 or 4 wins, we don't really need much help with 2 of them due to that 2 H2H games.
Biggest games for Draft Watch (assuming Pats lose next 3, which is realistic assumption):
Week 14: Meh. NYJ vs. Houston (-3.5).
Week 15: Meh 2.0. Tennessee vs. Houston (-3.5), Chicago vs. Cleveland (-2.5).
Week 16: BIG WEEK--Chicago vs. Arizona, NYJ vs. Washington, Tennessee vs. Seattle (-1).
Week 17: Chicago (-3.5) vs. Atlanta, NYG vs. Rams (-6.5), Tennessee vs. Houston (-3.5).
Week 18: PATS VS JETS.
Yeah so ideally the Patriots lose out and get 2nd choice of Williams/Maye.
In other scenarios where they drop, I think you're likely looking at 3rd QB (Daniels, unless someone LOVES him then Williams/Maye in play), MHJ, Fashanu, Alt. Also, you're well positioned to trade up for one of the QBs depending who is ahead of you (ARI trading back is most likely)
In other scenarios where they drop, I think you're likely looking at 3rd QB (Daniels, unless someone LOVES him then Williams/Maye in play), MHJ, Fashanu, Alt. Also, you're well positioned to trade up for one of the QBs depending who is ahead of you (ARI trading back is most likely)
And if they like Daniels more than who's available they might be able to slide back a spot or 2, depending on who wants what.
Also, is there a world where the Bears get 1 and 5 and decide they like Fields enough to give him Harrison and Alt/Fashanu?
If you’re going that route, and it’s possible at least, then you come off 1 get those two and pick up the extra assets. What a jump if Fields is really capable.
I was hoping they'd get #2 so they could trade down a bit and pick up a couple of good assets. They need so much help. At this point, if they could get 2 first rounders to and draft a WR, OT, and QB in the first 35 picks or so. i'd be happy. Then bring back Zappe or mediocre vet on a 2 year deal, and we can be back to a mediocre, but at least developing team.
I don't believe any QB they draft is going to be a starter next season.
I don't believe any QB they draft is going to be a starter next season.
My general feel for this draft is that's not likely. I think every QB you feel better about than Mac Jones as a prospect is going top 10. I guess hypothetically if you end up at 2 you could trade to 4 hope you get the 3rd QB there, then trade future picks for a late 1st, but I doubt it.
As a thought experiment.... let's say we finish 2, Williams goes 1, we don't love Maye and know WAS does and they sit 4th (ARI at 3).. we trade back to 4, getting 36 and future picks. We take Daniels at 4, then use 36 and some stuff to move to say... 30? Could do that and end up with your QB, and then a tackle and WR out of the 2nd/3rd tier (Suamataia, Morgan, Paul, Mims at OT, Egbuka, McConkey, Legette, Franklin, Corley at WR). Have to finish at 2 to feel good about it, and honestly even then you worry about ARI trading back and QBs going 1-3.
You understand that if they’re drafting outside the top 2 that we’ll all be drinking the Kool-Aid next year, yes?
I bet Bill (like a few draft experts) has Arnold higher than his teammate, which would piss people off even more.
Just trying to find a silver lining. Like everyone, I will be delighted if he uses a #5 pick for someone whose name I recognize.
Yeah, it would be hilarious if he traded down and took Arnold in round 1 followed by someone like Verse in round 2 and then watch the team go 10-7 by winning a bunch of 10-6 games.
Jackson Ross- can punt with either foot. I say trade out of #3 to 28, pick up a few 7th rounders for the deal, and get him
https://fanbuzz.com/college-football/sec/tennessee/ambidextrous-punter-jackson-ross/
https://fanbuzz.com/college-football/sec/tennessee/ambidextrous-punter-jackson-ross/