Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I used the simulator above and had them lose every 'meaningful' game for SOS, and I couldn't get them lower than 5 seed. I haven't seen anyone else proclaim 5th seed as worst case, but based upon my trials as noted I feel confident saying that

Sweet! Thanks for doing that leg work for the rest of us.

 

[Jake Peavy's Demons]

Easy cheat card:

**Most important!**

Pats loss vs Jets​

**Next most important!** - UPDATED

Commanders win vs Cowboys​

Cardinals win vs Seattle​

**Critical for SOS (counts double)**

Falcons win over Saints​

**Get some breathing room** - UPDATED

Giants win vs Eagles​

**Helps with SOS in all scenarios**

Ravens over Steelers​

Texans over Colts​

**Can help or hurt depending on scenarios, so probably not worth paying attention to**

Bears vs Packers​

Broncos vs Raiders​

And summarized by game-set

Saturday:

Ravens over Steelers​

Texans over Colts​

Sun 1PM:

Jets over Pats​

Falcons over Saints​

Sun 4:25PM:

Giants/Commanders/Cardinals to WIN​

Awesome! Thanks!

Mods or whomever: is it possible to get this pinned for the 1st post of the Pats' Week 18 game thread?

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Awesome! Thanks!

Mods or whomever: is it possible to get this pinned for the 1st post of the Pats' Week 18 game thread?

We need a new thread game thread starter because they lost last week. Start one and add wilked's post to the OP.

 

[Curt S Loew]

If we beat the Jets, we really need the Cardinals to beat Seattle. Only way we stay at 3.

So don't beat The Jets.

 

[DJnVa]

With at least a chance of a decent snowstorm hitting during the game, anyone game out the SOS consequences for a 0-0 tie? WHICH WOULD BE AWESOME.

 

[Cellar-Door]

With at least a chance of a decent snowstorm hitting during the game, anyone game out the SOS consequences for a 0-0 tie? WHICH WOULD BE AWESOME.

SOS wouldn't matter if the Patriots tie (unless I guess ARI or WAS also tied), they'd finish 4th if both ARI and WAS lose, 3rd if one of those wins, 2nd if both win.

 

[tims4wins]

Yeah a tie is basically as bad as a win

 

[DJnVa]

SOS wouldn't matter if the Patriots tie (unless I guess ARI or WAS also tied), they'd finish 4th if both ARI and WAS lose, 3rd if one of those wins, 2nd if both win.

Yeah, bad wording, cuz obviously SOS wouldn't matter since the tie means we aren't going to have the same record as anyone else.

 

[tims4wins]

View: https://twitter.com/dakrandall/status/1742201900806570394?s=46

 

[ehaz]

Ravens over Steelers for SOS may actually be tricky because Baltimore certainly sits Lamar, right? They already have a 1st round bye. Do us a solid, Malik Cunningham.

Seems like Atlanta over New Orleans is the most important (assuming Pats and Commanders both lose).

 

[ehaz]

View: https://twitter.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1742249339215585409?s=20

 

[Cellar-Door]

Ravens over Steelers for SOS may actually be tricky because Baltimore certainly sits Lamar, right? They already have a 1st round bye. Do us a solid, Malik Cunningham.

Seems like Atlanta over New Orleans is the most important (assuming Pats and Commanders both lose).

Lamar might play a half to avoid the 3 weeks off rust that seemed to hurt a few year ago, but depending how many other players they rest, I'd still feel pretty good about that team with Huntley against the Steelers.

 

[slamminsammya]

View: https://twitter.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1742249339215585409?s=20

Of all time? I don't follow college that closely but is that true?

 

[BaseballJones]

That was cool to see Penix as a righty. He looked much more "normal" to me as a thrower. Just shows how I am so used to QBs being righty that a lefty always looks a little odd to me. Those mechanics look great.

 

[Justthetippett]

He's insanely accurate, particularly on the deep ball. His release time looks like it could improve, as could his release point (a little low). But he's got something that is repeatable and works for him. Helps that he has near prototypical size.

 

[BaseballJones]

He's insanely accurate, particularly on the deep ball. His release time looks like it could improve, as could his release point (a little low). But he's got something that is repeatable and works for him. Helps that he has near prototypical size.

He definitely is highly accurate. But it's more than that. Earlier in the thread someone posted what some believe is a fair criticism of him - that he only throws the ball with one speed and trajectory (I'm paraphrasing the criticism) but I don't see that at all. He throws absolute lasers at all depths, but when needed, he totally lofts passes and drops them in the bucket. He's got a cannon but also great touch.

Now that I've seen him move really well in and out of the pocket, the only downsides I can think of are:

(1) his injury history
(2) he plays in a weak conference with great players so he has it "easy"
(3) he's old for a draftee so he's a grown man playing with younger "kids"

I'm not worried about the age issue in the sense that they won't get as many years out of him that they would if he was 21. I don't care about that. We can't project anything like a 15 year career anyway - too many variables. Whomever they draft in the first round, they hope they can sign to a second contract of, like, 5 years, so they'd be hoping to get a 10-year career out of that player. Anything else is gravy. So they'd get his ages 24-34 rather than his ages 21-31. No biggie. In fact, being older may mean he can help the team sooner. You just don't worry about life ten years down the road here with this pick. That said, the age thing matters if you think the biggest reason he's performing so well is because it's like a high school kid going up against middle schoolers. That might have some legitimacy to it.

I don't know how the injury history plays into it because I don't know if he's "injury prone" or if he has chronic issues or if he's just had bad luck.

And that leaves the weaker conference issue. I worry that he's got the same issues as Mac in that regard. Mac played on a great team with elite talent all around him and that made him look better than he was. Can Penix be great when his offensive talent is neutralized by equally talented defensive players? Who knows. I think the championship game will help a lot with that because Michigan has a great defense. If he struggles against them, that could be a bit of a yellow flag.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Of all time? I don't follow college that closely but is that true?

I guess it depends how you want to define "Remarkable" which is a pretty vague term, but if you take it to mean best, or most impressive... no, not even remotely close to true

 

[dirtynine]

His motion still looks a little odd as a “righty”. It’s a flick more than a whip. But he gets juice on the ball and it goes exactly where it’s supposed to. I could get used to it.

 

[tims4wins]

His motion still looks a little odd as a “righty”. It’s a flick more than a whip. But he gets juice on the ball and it goes exactly where it’s supposed to. I could get used to it.

Some Michael Vick in there, no? But far more accurate and better touch.

 

[Cellar-Door]

He definitely is highly accurate. But it's more than that. Earlier in the thread someone posted what some believe is a fair criticism of him - that he only throws the ball with one speed and trajectory (I'm paraphrasing the criticism) but I don't see that at all. He throws absolute lasers at all depths, but when needed, he totally lofts passes and drops them in the bucket. He's got a cannon but also great touch.

Now that I've seen him move really well in and out of the pocket, the only downsides I can think of are:

(1) his injury history
(2) he plays in a weak conference with great players so he has it "easy"
(3) he's old for a draftee so he's a grown man playing with younger "kids"

I'm not worried about the age issue in the sense that they won't get as many years out of him that they would if he was 21. I don't care about that. We can't project anything like a 15 year career anyway - too many variables. Whomever they draft in the first round, they hope they can sign to a second contract of, like, 5 years, so they'd be hoping to get a 10-year career out of that player. Anything else is gravy. So they'd get his ages 24-34 rather than his ages 21-31. No biggie. In fact, being older may mean he can help the team sooner. You just don't worry about life ten years down the road here with this pick. That said, the age thing matters if you think the biggest reason he's performing so well is because it's like a high school kid going up against middle schoolers. That might have some legitimacy to it.

I don't know how the injury history plays into it because I don't know if he's "injury prone" or if he has chronic issues or if he's just had bad luck.

And that leaves the weaker conference issue. I worry that he's got the same issues as Mac in that regard. Mac played on a great team with elite talent all around him and that made him look better than he was. Can Penix be great when his offensive talent is neutralized by equally talented defensive players? Who knows. I think the championship game will help a lot with that because Michigan has a great defense. If he struggles against them, that could be a bit of a yellow flag.

I like him , but I think the one speed criticism while not 100% accurate has some truth to it, he doesn't layer all that well from the 6 or 7 games I've seen, he can throw line drives and he can throw moonshot deep-balls, but I don't see a lot of touch in those key NFL type throws where you need to drop it over the LB but in front of the DB. I also don't love his placement at time, his WRs have to adjust to throws a decent amount in some games. I also don't always love his anticipation and reads, he throws when guys are open a lot rather than at the break, he (and Williams too int his class) have a lot of throws well after an NFL time to throw would have slammed shut.

One thing about age... it's not about the length of a guy's career, usually when teams talk about "older" prospects at QB, what they really mean is how much growth as a player does he have left and how much time has he had to hone the craft. Guys who played 5 years in college generally are seen as guys you expect less growth out of, they've had 5 years of high level training work, 5 years of high level coaching, and 5 years of on-field experience in learning to read the game.

 

[BaseballJones]

All I know is that going into this draft, everything I say about QBs needs to be taken with a gigantic, colossal grain of salt, since I was high on Mac and clearly I missed that one pretty badly (it looked good year one though, dammit!).

 

[Devizier]

I was referring to the fact that you said it wasn't because of the school.

Beldsoe and Penix attended different schools.

But they both play in the Apple Cup!

 

[ZMart100]

View: https://twitter.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1742249339215585409?s=20

So much better. Lefty QBs ought to be outlawed.

 

[Beomoose]

So much better. Lefty QBs ought to be outlawed.

Sister Caroline, is that you?

 

[DeadlySplitter]

View: https://twitter.com/Spencer_NFL/status/1742240266025685126?t=S-9hdXqes3xIHWrakLg3vQ&s=19

 

[Cellar-Door]

View: https://twitter.com/Spencer_NFL/status/1742240266025685126?t=S-9hdXqes3xIHWrakLg3vQ&s=19

deleted.

(this is why people should post content with tweets)

 

[ZMart100]

deleted.

(this is why people should post content with tweets)

Deleted because it was wrong. If both WAS and NE lose, there are 32 possibilities how the other games play out for SoS. In 20 WAS gets the #2 pick. In 12 NE gets the #2 pick.
View: https://twitter.com/Spencer_NFL/status/1742398760917848314

 

[Cellar-Door]

Today's Athletic Football show has some good stuff on the CFP game prospects with Brugler and Tice. Do a nice job on Penix, the stuff he showed that they thought was impressive (and somewhat new on tape), and some of the stuff they are still concerned on, and what they're looking for against Michigan who they think is more the type of defense that can push him to things he struggles with.

Edit- For those who don't know, you can get the podcast on Youtube.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Deleted because it was wrong. If both WAS and NE lose, there are 32 possibilities how the other games play out for SoS. In 20 WAS gets the #2 pick. In 12 NE gets the #2 pick.
View: https://twitter.com/Spencer_NFL/status/1742398760917848314

That graphic also nicely illustrates how high leverage ATL-NO is in this situation. If ATL wins, we get #2 in 11/16 scenarios. If ATL loses, we get #2 in only 1/16 scenarios.

 

[wilked]

The graphic is nice but ultimately I think not helpful.

The better graphic I think is to go ahead and pencil Washington in for a loss (based on the moneyline (-900 Dallas) Vegas sees it as ~90% certain Washington will lose).

If we accept that as a very likely outcome, then there are only 3 games that will meaningfully determine draft order:

NE/Jets (NE 2.5 pt fav) - Looking for a Jets win
Falcons/Saints (NO 3 pt fav) - Looking for Falcons win
Seahawks/Cards (Hawks are a 2.5 pt fav) - Looking for a Cards win

The bad news is 2/3 games, the line is not in favor of the Pats for draft pick odds. BUT all three games are within 3 points spread so they are more like 60/40 leans.

Again, assuming Washington loses, then:
1. Pats lose and Falcons win, Pats are in the driver's seat for #2 pick. They still need help but things would be looking good.
2. Pats lose and Falcons lose, Pats are almost certain to be #3 pick
3. Pats win, Cards win, Atlanta wins - Pats are in the driver's seat for #3 pick. They still need help but things would be looking good.
4. Pats win, Cards lose, Atlanta wins - Pats are in the driver's seat for #4 pick. They still need help but things would be looking good.
5. Perfect storm situation. Pats win, Cards lose, Atlanta loses - #5 pick

In the end you need two outcomes (some combo of Pats loss, Falcons win, Cards win) and you are in the driver seat for a top 3 pick. Not perfect but a close analogy - need to flip two heads in three tosses...

 

[Curt S Loew]

5. Perfect storm situation. Pats win, Cards lose, Atlanta loses - #5 pick

Obviously, Giants need to lose as well. And there are other SOS games if they do. We could still pick 4.

 

[BigJimEd]

In the end you need two outcomes (some combo of Pats loss, Falcons win, Cards win) and you are in the driver seat for a top 3 pick. Not perfect but a close analogy - need to flip two heads in three tosses...

Also, If Pats lose, they are guaranteed a top 3 pick. AZ cannot win a tiebreaker with NE. Cards will finish with higher SOS regardless of week 18 games.

The ATL/NO is a big game in helping to break a tie between NE and Was.

 

[wilked]

I went ahead and made the graphic for the scenario where NEP wins and WAS&NYG lose. I did two graphics (one if ARI wins and one if they lose). See below:

Importantly:
**If both ARI and Pats win, they are in great shape for #3
**If ARI loses and Pats win, 22/32 instances they get #4 pick, otherwise #5

Things I learned doing this (assuming NYG and WAS both lose):

1. If Pats lose, they really want the Falcons to win to get the #2 pick
2. If Pats win and the Cards win, they are in great shape for #3
3. If Pats win and Cards lose, they have something like a 70% chance to get the #4 pick, with too many combinations of help to really root for specific teams



Edit to add - I now see after posting that the scenarios remain the same between Giants / Pats, just shifted one spot lower (ie the Arizona game is meaningless for SOS between NYG and NEP). That would have saved me a lot of work if I figured that out implicitly...

Let's get a Ravens and Texans win Saturday to lock Pats in on tiebreakers above NYG, and I believe reduce worst case scenario to #4.

 

[Justthetippett]

If we want a loss (and to keep BB), isn't the best thing for Kraft to do resolve the BB situation in advance of the game? Not publicly, but with BB himself. I can't imagine much hinges on this game in terms of that decision. If he goes to Bill and says look, we want you back, here's a new 4-year deal, maybe Bill goes with the vanilla gameplan and finds a way to lose. The uncertainty is really not helping.

 

[cshea]

If we want a loss (and to keep BB), isn't the best thing for Kraft to do resolve the BB situation in advance of the game? Not publicly, but with BB himself. I can't imagine much hinges on this game in terms of that decision. If he goes to Bill and says look, we want you back, here's a new 4-year deal, maybe Bill goes with the vanilla gameplan and finds a way to lose. The uncertainty is really not helping.

I'm sure they've already had conversations and both sides know to some degree what is going to happen.

And Bill Belichick is never going to tank a game. Never. Ever.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'm sure they've already had conversations and both sides know to some degree what is going to happen.

And Bill Belichick is never going to tank a game. Never. Ever.

He may not ever actually "tank" a game, but he sure came close in the season finale of the 2015 season in Miami.

 

[Curt S Loew]

He may not ever actually "tank" a game, but he sure came close in the season finale of the 2015 season in Miami.

I never go to NFL games. I was lucky enough to be at this one. If it counts as an NFL game.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

I never go to NFL games. I was lucky enough to be at this one. If it counts as an NFL game.

That game just popped up on my "memories". I would have preferred to forget the S Jax experience

 

[Curt S Loew]

That game just popped up on my "memories". I would have preferred to forget the S Jax experience

Thanks for the warning.

 

[cshea]

He may not ever actually "tank" a game, but he sure came close in the season finale of the 2015 season in Miami.

I don't think that's totally analgoous. I mean, he's rested guys week 17/18 when they've been in playoff position. In that particular case they had a bye but were really banged up and he decided to play it safe and punt home field in favor of not getting anyone else hurt. Not the right call in hindsight, but I don't think it comares to the game coming up on Sunday.

If he's gone, like many seem to think he is, why in the world would he tank this game? It's not his draft pick, he gets to beat the Jets one last time and get a win closer to Shula.

I guess if he has some assurance from Robert that he's coming back he could dial it back but I just can't see him doing that. They haven't all year.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't think that's totally analgoous. I mean, he's rested guys week 17/18 when they've been in playoff position. In that particular case they had a bye but were really banged up and he decided to play it safe and punt home field in favor of not getting anyone else hurt. Not the right call in hindsight, but I don't think it comares to the game coming up on Sunday.

If he's gone, like many seem to think he is, why in the world would he tank this game? It's not his draft pick, he gets to beat the Jets one last time and get a win closer to Shula.

I guess if he has some assurance from Robert that he's coming back he could dial it back but I just can't see him doing that. They haven't all year.

Yeah, I don't think he won't play to win this week. Even if he's coming back and it means a better draft position (and future of the franchise) if they lose.

 

[wilked]

I never go to NFL games. I was lucky enough to be at this one. If it counts as an NFL game.

All I remember is Jackson running straight into a stacked line. I went and looked at the All Plays... so bad

Spoiler: Spoiler

1st & 10 at NE 16
(14:01 - 1st) S.Jackson left guard to NE 19 for 3 yards (M.Thomas).

2nd & 7 at NE 19
(13:20 - 1st) S.Jackson right guard to NE 18 for -1 yards (K.Sheppard).

3rd & 8 at NE 18
(12:40 - 1st) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short middle to B.Bolden to NE 24 for 6 yards (N.Hewitt).

4th & 2 at NE 24
(11:50 - 1st) (Punt formation) R.Allen punts 50 yards to MIA 26, Center-J.Cardona, fair catch by J.Landry.

-------
1st & 10 at NE 20
(8:06 - 1st) S.Jackson left tackle to NE 26 for 6 yards (Br.McCain).

2nd & 4 at NE 26
(7:46 - 1st) (No Huddle) S.Jackson up the middle to NE 28 for 2 yards (O.Vernon).

3rd & 2 at NE 28
(7:08 - 1st) S.Jackson up the middle to NE 31 for 3 yards (D.Shelby).

1st & 10 at NE 31
(6:34 - 1st) (Shotgun) B.Bolden left guard to NE 30 for -1 yards (M.Thomas; N.Hewitt).

2nd & 11 at NE 30
(6:04 - 1st) (Shotgun) B.Bolden up the middle to NE 33 for 3 yards (R.Jones).

3rd & 8 at NE 33
(5:18 - 1st) (Shotgun) B.Bolden right guard to NE 39 for 6 yards (R.Jones).

4th & 2 at NE 39
(4:41 - 1st) (Punt formation) R.Allen punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-J.Cardona, Touchback.
------------
1st & 10 at NE 36
(14:07 - 2nd) S.Jackson left tackle to NE 41 for 5 yards (N.Hewitt; D.Moore).

2nd & 5 at NE 41
(13:51 - 2nd) S.Jackson left tackle to NE 41 for no gain (N.Hewitt; K.Sheppard). PENALTY on NE-J.Kline, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play.

2nd & 15 at NE 31
(13:37 - 2nd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to S.Jackson to MIA 49 for 20 yards (N.Suh).

1st & 10 at MIA 49
(13:07 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Bolden left tackle to MIA 44 for 5 yards (J.Phillips).

2nd & 5 at MIA 44
(12:25 - 2nd) B.Bolden left tackle to MIA 34 for 10 yards (R.Jones).

1st & 10 at MIA 34
(12:02 - 2nd) S.Jackson right guard to MIA 32 for 2 yards (M.Thomas).

2nd & 8 at MIA 32
(11:30 - 2nd) PENALTY on MIA-N.Suh, Encroachment, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 32 - No Play.
2nd & 3 at MIA 27

(10:54 - 2nd) S.Jackson left tackle to MIA 25 for 2 yards (Br.McCain).
3rd & 1 at MIA 25

(10:07 - 2nd) S.Mason reported in as eligible. S.Jackson left tackle to MIA 20 for 5 yards (S.Gary; Br.McCain).

1st & 10 at MIA 20
(9:36 - 2nd) B.Bolden right tackle to MIA 19 for 1 yard (B.Grimes).

2nd & 9 at MIA 19
(9:00 - 2nd) (Shotgun) B.Bolden right guard to MIA 16 for 3 yards (N.Suh; O.Vernon).
3rd & 6 at MIA 16

(8:25 - 2nd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short left to D.Amendola [N.Suh]. Penalty on NE-M.Cannon, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

4th & 6 at MIA 16
(8:06 - 2nd) Stephen Gostkowski 34 Yd Field Goal
------------
1st & 10 at NE 35
(5:55 - 2nd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to B.LaFell to NE 34 for -1 yards (K.Sheppard; O.Vernon).

2nd & 11 at NE 34
(5:24 - 2nd) T.Brady pass incomplete short left to K.Martin. PENALTY on MIA-Br.McCain, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 34 - No Play.

1st & 10 at NE 39
(5:18 - 2nd) J.White left guard to NE 43 for 4 yards (N.Hewitt).

2nd & 6 at NE 43
(4:46 - 2nd) B.Bolden up the middle to NE 47 for 4 yards (D.Shelby).
3rd & 2 at NE 47

(4:18 - 2nd) (Shotgun) PENALTY on MIA-N.Suh, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at NE 47 - No Play.

1st & 10 at MIA 48
(3:53 - 2nd) T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to S.Chandler. PENALTY on MIA-R.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, 24 yards, enforced at MIA 48 - No Play.

1st & 10 at MIA 24
(3:43 - 2nd) S.Jackson up the middle to MIA 23 for 1 yard (D.Shelby).

2nd & 9 at MIA 23
(3:05 - 2nd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to J.White to MIA 28 for -5 yards (K.Sheppard).

3rd & 14 at MIA 28
(2:30 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.White left guard to MIA 28 for no gain (O.Vernon).
(2:00 - 2nd) Two-Minute Warning

4th & 14 at MIA 28
(2:00 - 2nd) (Field Goal formation) S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-R.Allen.
-----------
1st & 10 at NE 20
(15:00 - 3rd) T.Brady pass short right to K.Martin to NE 24 for 4 yards (M.Thomas) [O.Vernon].
2nd & 6 at NE 24

(14:33 - 3rd) S.Jackson right tackle to NE 26 for 2 yards (D.Coleman).
3rd & 4 at NE 26

(13:46 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short middle to J.White to MIA 6 for 68 yards (T.Lippett).
1st & Goal at MIA 6

(12:59 - 3rd) S.Jackson left tackle to MIA 3 for 3 yards (Br.McCain). PENALTY on MIA-D.Coleman, Illegal Use of Hands, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 6 - No Play.

1st & Goal at MIA 2
(12:32 - 3rd) Steven Jackson 2 Yard Rush S.Gostkowski extra point is Good.
---------
1st & 10 at NE 33
(11:10 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to D.Amendola.
2nd & 10 at NE 33

(11:04 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short left to K.Martin.
3rd & 10 at NE 33

(10:58 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short right to R.Gronkowski (D.Moore).
4th & 10 at NE 33

(10:41 - 3rd) (Punt formation) R.Allen punts 48 yards to MIA 19, Center-J.Cardona. J.Landry to MIA 28 for 9 yards (M.Williams).
----------
1st & 10 at NE 20
(7:44 - 3rd) T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to R.Gronkowski (N.Hewitt).
2nd & 10 at NE 20

(7:38 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short middle to B.Bolden to NE 19 for -1 yards (N.Hewitt).
3rd & 11 at NE 19

(7:07 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short right to K.Martin (B.Grimes). PENALTY on MIA-O.Vernon, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NE 19 - No Play.
1st & 10 at NE 34

(6:58 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short left to R.Gronkowski.
2nd & 10 at NE 34

(6:52 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to D.Amendola to NE 43 for 9 yards (M.Thomas).
3rd & 1 at NE 43

(6:16 - 3rd) T.Brady pass deep right to K.Martin to MIA 29 for 28 yards (S.Gary). PENALTY on NE-K.Martin, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at NE 43 - No Play.
3rd & 11 at NE 33

(5:49 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to B.LaFell (T.Lippett) [O.Vernon].
4th & 11 at NE 33

(5:29 - 3rd) (Punt formation) R.Allen punts 56 yards to MIA 11, Center-J.Cardona. J.Landry to MIA 22 for 11 yards (D.Watson).
----------
1st & 10 at NE 39
(2:03 - 3rd) S.Jackson left tackle to NE 41 for 2 yards (K.Sheppard).

2nd & 8 at NE 41
(1:47 - 3rd) T.Brady pass incomplete short right to R.Gronkowski [D.Shelby].

3rd & 8 at NE 41
(1:25 - 3rd) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NE-D.Amendola, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play.

3rd & 13 at NE 36
(1:25 - 3rd) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short middle to D.Amendola to NE 44 for 8 yards (M.Thomas).
4th & 5 at NE 44

(0:45 - 3rd) (Punt formation) R.Allen punts 41 yards to MIA 15, Center-J.Cardona, fair catch by J.Landry.
------------
1st & 10 at NE 4
(12:57 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to B.LaFell to NE 12 for 8 yards (N.Hewitt).

2nd & 2 at NE 12
(12:44 - 4th) S.Jackson up the middle to NE 13 for 1 yard (J.Phillips).

3rd & 1 at NE 13
(12:05 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short left to R.Gronkowski to NE 25 for 12 yards (K.Sheppard).

1st & 10 at NE 25
(11:26 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete deep left to R.Gronkowski (Br.McCain).

2nd & 10 at NE 25
(11:17 - 4th) B.Bolden left guard to NE 25 for no gain (O.Vernon).

3rd & 10 at NE 25
(10:46 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to R.Gronkowski to NE 31 for 6 yards (R.Jones).

4th & 4 at NE 31
(9:50 - 4th) (Punt formation) R.Allen punts 51 yards to MIA 18, Center-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
-------------
1st & 10 at NE 20
(6:58 - 4th) T.Brady sacked at NE 13 for -7 yards (D.Shelby). FUMBLES (D.Shelby), and recovers at NE 14. T.Brady to NE 15 for 1 yard (N.Suh).

2nd & 15 at NE 15
(6:16 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.White right guard to NE 16 for 1 yard (D.Shelby).

3rd & 14 at NE 16
(5:33 - 4th) (Shotgun) T.Brady sacked at NE 7 for -9 yards (sack split by O.Vernon and N.Suh).

4th & 23 at NE 7
(5:05 - 4th) (Punt formation) R.Allen punts 53 yards to MIA 40, Center-J.Cardona. J.Landry to NE 27 for 33 yards (N.Ebner). Penalty on NE-M.Slater, Illegal Formation, offsetting, enforced at NE 7 - No Play. Penalty on MIA-T.Patmon, Defensive Holding, offsetting.

4th & 23 at NE 7
(5:05 - 4th) (Punt formation) PENALTY on NE-J.Cardona, False Start, 3 yards, enforced at NE 7 - No Play.

4th & 26 at NE 4
(4:41 - 4th) (Punt formation) R.Allen punts 54 yards to MIA 42, Center-J.Cardona. J.Landry to NE 35 for 23 yards (M.Slater). PENALTY on MIA-Da.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 35.
-----------
1st & 10 at NE 20
(1:56 - 4th) J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to J.White.

2nd & 10 at NE 20
(1:52 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass short left to C.Harper to NE 26 for 6 yards (T.Lippett).

3rd & 4 at NE 26
(1:30 - 4th) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to S.Chandler (M.Thomas).

4th & 4 at NE 26
(1:23 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to B.LaFell.

 

[Justthetippett]

I don't think that's totally analgoous. I mean, he's rested guys week 17/18 when they've been in playoff position. In that particular case they had a bye but were really banged up and he decided to play it safe and punt home field in favor of not getting anyone else hurt. Not the right call in hindsight, but I don't think it comares to the game coming up on Sunday.

If he's gone, like many seem to think he is, why in the world would he tank this game? It's not his draft pick, he gets to beat the Jets one last time and get a win closer to Shula.

I guess if he has some assurance from Robert that he's coming back he could dial it back but I just can't see him doing that. They haven't all year.

They haven't all year because BB respects the players and game too much to do something like that when guys need to put play on tape and, if they are putting their bodies on the line, the coaches owe it to them to try. The last week of the season is a different animal. It's not resting for the playoffs, but it's not that different either...just a longer time horizon.

 

[AB in DC]

In a competent organization, the head coach and the general manager should get together and decide what their goals are for the last game of the year. Who they still want to evaluate for next year, who still needs the reps to improve, who they want to see more of before offering a potential free agent contract, and so on. Almost like a preseason game, where the player development and information needed for roster management take precedence over the outcome.

Problem is, when HC and GM are the same person this can never happen.

 

[epraz]

Problem is, when HC and GM are the same person this can never happen.

Alternatively, it happens with perfect efficiency.

 

[wilked]

Alternatively, it happens with perfect efficiency.

 

[NomarsFool]

Looks like Zach Wilson is out for Sunday.

On the plus side, Trent Brown seems to be on his way out of town.

On the negative side, because of the above, we'll probably end up getting an OT after all this....

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Thanks for the warning.

Chandler Jones was inactive . #SoSHMeme

 

[richgedman'sghost]

We're all assuming the Pats win. It feels like old times.

What happens if the Pats tie?

 

[DJnVa]

What happens if the Pats tie?

Well then we just look at records, cuz SOS won't matter. 4-12-1 is a better record than Washington or Arizona going 4-13 so that's not good.