NY trade deadline 2019

jon abbey

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Starting this a bit early this year, we are past the draft and there is only one deadline this year, July 31.

It's so hard to figure out fair value for players especially as teams move more and more towards younger players who can be optioned, but I have two deals/targets that I have been thinking about a lot, so I wanted to share.

The first is a more obvious one, Matthew Boyd of DET, a 28 year old lefty SP who has blossomed this season (13 Ks against NY in early April in Yankee Stadium). He obviously doesn't have the track record of some of the bigger names mentioned, but he still has three years of arb left and is controllable through 2022. This one is tricky though, since I think for instance SD could easily outbid NY here if they chose and Cashman hates to pay up. I think this deal would need to involve Clint Frazier, Thairo Estrada and a couple of prospect arms, maybe that could work but it seems unlikely.

The second is the one I really can't stop thinking about, and it is Francisco Lindor (controlled through 2021) and Trevor Bauer (controlled through 2020) for Gleyber Torres (controlled through 2024) and some pitching prospects. Lindor/Bauer make a combined $23.5M this year, so NY could fit the remainder under the $246M cap, and CLE would obviously save a lot of money going forward, and it is clear that they almost certainly won't keep either of these players (Bauer has said he will only sign one year deals to the highest bidder once he hits FA and CLE ownership has basically said they will let Lindor go as he has turned down their extension offers). NY would then let Didi go this winter (Lindor is 3 1/2 years younger) and so they'd save money there, Didi could switch to 2B for the remainder of this season.

Anyway, curious what people think of that proposal, I have been thinking about it a lot and I think that 1) it makes sense for both teams, assuming CLE is out of the divisional hunt in mid-July and 2) neither team would actually say yes. Cashman has been really careful about the personalities of guys he brings in the last couple of seasons and Bauer would be tricky there, plus it's hard to imagine trading someone as good and as young and under control for as long as Gleyber, but this would also allow NY to keep guys like Frazier and Estrada, neither of whom have an obvious path to starting but both of whom can be quite helpful if needed as we've seen already this season.

FWIW, this train of thought stems in part from Buster Olney saying the other day that he thinks NY will trade for Lindor in the offseason, so why not now?

 

KiltedFool

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My Yankees hatred had died down a bit over the years, now it's back, just like my Sox hatred spiked when they traded for my favorite player at the 2009 deadline and members here immediately started their Veruca impressions wanting more.

There's some logic to it since Lindor has quietly turned down some offers that were real money. But the backlash will be absolutely massive, Lindor is the face of the franchise. I'm not current enough on young players and prospects to speak intelligently on what a good return is.

I watched Sabathia as a rookie so I've been down this road before.
 

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That sounds really light for the top SS in the game and a near ace starter.

Edit: Maybe if the Orioles were traded to the AL Central since Torres' numbers are goosed by that team.
 

jon abbey

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You need to factor in salary and years of control, Gleyber is 22, 3 years younger than Lindor, and doing things no Yankee that age has done since Mantle.

Edit: Pulled from my Twitter timeline this AM:

"Middle Infielders with 120 OPS+ Through Age 22 (700+ PA) Gleyber Torres, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken, Joe Morgan, Jim Fregosi, Vern Stephens, Arky Vaughan, Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Larry Doyle, Fred Dunlap"
 

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It's not like Cleveland has to slash payroll or anything. They are stuck with Santana for one more year (he's the highest paid guy on the team right now), but they might be able to get something for him with the way he's been hitting this year. Kluber has 2 team-friendly options coming up that, if he doesn't come back effective, they could decline and be free from his obligations (unlikely). Kipnis will be kicked to the curb, so his salary will be off the books after a $2.5M buyout. Bauer and Lindor will likely command over $30M in arb next year, but no one else is expensive, so there's no financial need to trade them both. I think it's going to take a big offer to get them at this point. Anything can happen, but it's probably going to cost Cashman too much to actually make the deal.
 

jon abbey

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Moving on to other names, Stroman is a much-mentioned target for NY also, as he is from Long Island and would love to play for the Yankees. Jim Bowden has a column up in the Athletic today where he thinks that Everson Pereira (one of NY's handful of very high ceiling international signing position players) and Thairo Estrada could be the main guys in a package for Stroman.
 

jon abbey

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It's not like Cleveland has to slash payroll or anything. They are stuck with Santana for one more year (he's the highest paid guy on the team right now), but they might be able to get something for him with the way he's been hitting this year. Kluber has 2 team-friendly options coming up that, if he doesn't come back effective, they could decline and be free from his obligations (unlikely). Kipnis will be kicked to the curb, so his salary will be off the books after a $2.5M buyout. Bauer and Lindor will likely command over $30M in arb next year, but no one else is expensive, so there's no financial need to trade them both. I think it's going to take a big offer to get them at this point. Anything can happen, but it's probably going to cost Cashman too much to actually make the deal.
Good post, thanks.
 

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If Cashman finds 2 more bullpen aces and a subpar number 3 pitcher this deadline, I'll be kind of annoyed. Also, that's probably what will happen.
 

jon abbey

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I am just hoping for an acquisition like LeMaheiu that most Yankee fans are going to cry and moan about and then it just turns out to be awesome.
The crazy part with LeMahieu was what Cone was saying on the broadcast last night, he had basically only ever played 2B in the majors but he immediately looked great at 3B and 1B too. No one expected that except Cashman and Jim Hendry (NY assistant now, the GM who drafted DJL originally in 2009).
 

Ford Frick's Asterisk

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I'll be surprised if Cleveland trades Lindor in the off-season and completely shocked if they trade him next month. As Kilted Fool said, it would be PR suicide... a Marlins type move. Cleveland sports fans are pretty understanding about our lot in life, and we're probably more supportive of team ownerships than most places. We know our stars will eventually leave for "greener" pastures, and we let ownership off the hook for that. However, I think Larry Dolan reached the nadir when he said just before the season that we should enjoy Lindor while we can. We all know he won't spend his career here, but Dolan broke the social contract of not pointing out the elephant in the room before it's necessary. Now they're struggling after he slashed the payroll of a defending division champion, assuming the AL Central couldn't be lost. Trading the face of the franchise with 2½ years left on his contract would permanently kill fan support of ownership and management.

If their financials are really that bad, they can still wait until the off-season when there's a larger market and a few months before they really have to face the public, but I think Danooo's post explains away why that's still unlikely. A Bauer trade wouldn't surprise me since even the casual fan knows he's going to max out arbitration for one more year and then leave. Also, while Lindor is hugely popular, Bauer never has been, rightly or wrongly, for not feigning the role of the cliched pro athlete. They also have MLB ready options for the rotation (Plesak might already be here long-term and Triston McKenzie is close to the majors if he can ever stay healthy), whereas trading Lindor requires another shortstop. I will be surprised if Bauer's in a Tribe uniform next spring.

I'm not even sure the Indians will be sellers though. Management seems to take a realistic approach, but they're currently just 1½ games out of a wild-card spot, and 31 of their 38 games remaining before the trade deadline are against sub-.500 teams (granted, dropping 4 next week in Arlington would be decisive). The team is still constructed to play for the Central title the next two years before a deep rebuild. Bauer is the only significant player not under team control through 2021 (Jason Kipnis is a good clubhouse guy, but on the field, they'll be happy to rid themselves of him and Leonys Martin), and most of their top prospects are still teenagers. Their focus in a now-for-later trade will be reloading with major league ready outfielders or a 2B/3B. If the Tribe is in selling mode next month, I'd expect it to be Bauer, any bullpen arm not named Brad Hand, and Leonys Martin (if anyone would actually take him off their hands).

*
 

crow216

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I'm not convinced that Cashman likes Bauer. He certainly doesn't fit the personality mold that we've tried to bring to the team.
 

jon abbey

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Just coming here to post something similar, NY and Cashman have been quite focused on personality when adding players the last year or two, I think the main reason they stayed away from Machado.

Also interesting Hal S was quoted this AM as saying he was OK going over $246M this season if Cashman felt it necessary, I'm not sure who that would bring into play who isn't already, maybe Greinke?

Personally I think NY will go after Boyd or Stroman, and if they can't find a match they are happy with there, maybe someone younger with options as a depth move. So for instance maybe Frazier to the Braves for one of their many young talented guys, Frazier is from Georgia too.
 

jon abbey

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Bumgarner shelled by the Dodgers tonight, 10 hits and 6 earned runs in 3.2 innings.
 

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I admit I'm biased against both Bumgarner and Bauer because I think they're both hard to root for, but outside of Stroman (whom I like a lot) and something outlandish like Scherzer or Strasburg I'm not actually feeling that bad about standing pat with our starting pitching. Severino and Betances coming back changes everything when you're talking about purely playoff strategy. (This is crazy but I'd love to see them see if CC, who is notoriously bad the third time through the lineup, can work with Green as an opener, too.)

Granted, I want to see Paxton shut down Houston today. And I also think the Yankees should just fucking go for it this year. Everything other than _maybe_ starting pitching is in place. Fuck it, go for Scherzer.
 

jon abbey

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Nice post, but Scherzer isn't going anywhere. WAS isn't tearing it down and they have won 8 of 11, including just sweeping the Phillies.

But it is worth watching how ARI does in the upcoming weeks, as Greinke could maybe become an option for NY if ARI falls even further back. His contract is massive ($35M per year through 2021) but he is a legit ace and I think his personality would be an OK fit in NY now that he is a grizzled vet of 35.
 

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I admit I'm biased against both Bumgarner and Bauer because I think they're both hard to root for, but outside of Stroman (whom I like a lot) and something outlandish like Scherzer or Strasburg I'm not actually feeling that bad about standing pat with our starting pitching. Severino and Betances coming back changes everything when you're talking about purely playoff strategy. (This is crazy but I'd love to see them see if CC, who is notoriously bad the third time through the lineup, can work with Green as an opener, too.)

Granted, I want to see Paxton shut down Houston today. And I also think the Yankees should just fucking go for it this year. Everything other than _maybe_ starting pitching is in place. Fuck it, go for Scherzer.
I don't think the Nationals starters become available, but I do I actually agree with you. I also don't love trading something significant for Stroman.

Severino is effectively the best pitcher they can acquire for this year. Just pray he comes back.
 

jon abbey

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A fixed German would be quite helpful too, and Betances obviously.

Last night I was trying to figure out if there was a match between NY and ATL, ATL could use another OF, especially if Riley goes back to 3B next season, and they have a ton of young talented SPs. Clint Frazier is from Georgia, so maybe NY could trade him for a guy or two who still has options, the idea being they don't have to push someone out of the rotation this year if they don't want to, but they would have more depth if they needed. I couldn't exactly figure out who the best match would be, though, maybe Bryse Wilson but maybe that is underselling Clint's value.
 

Wingack

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A fixed German would be quite helpful too, and Betances obviously.

Last night I was trying to figure out if there was a match between NY and ATL, ATL could use another OF, especially if Riley goes back to 3B next season, and they have a ton of young talented SPs. Clint Frazier is from Georgia, so maybe NY could trade him for a guy or two who still has options, the idea being they don't have to push someone out of the rotation this year if they don't want to, but they would have more depth if they needed. I couldn't exactly figure out who the best match would be, though, maybe Bryse Wilson but maybe that is underselling Clint's value.
But again, none of those Braves guys are aces, they could do well and go on a run, but they may not be better than what the Yankees already have.
 

jon abbey

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MLB Trade Rumors takes a shot at what I have been doing here, what SP could NY potentially get back with Clint Frazier as bait.

 

jon abbey

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A little time to kill tonight while procrastinating working with no Yankee game to fill my night, and I realized that Fangraphs have hit on a way to quantify something I have been alluding to for a few years, which is very relevant as we close in on a month left until the deadline...

Over the past few years at FG, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have put together an increasingly detailed list of all of the current prospects they feel are worth paying attention to, however few or many that may be for each organization. They now have that up in an easily sortable database called THE BOARD, with the 1172 prospects they are currently tracking. It is constantly updating as new players they feel worthy hit their radar or others graduate, but I thought it would serve as an interesting proxy for current system depth, so I checked all 30 teams and here are the systems with the most guys listed currently.

TBR-64
SDP-58
NYY-57
HOU-48
MIN-46
TEX-46

No one else is above 42 (the Dodgers only at 40 surprisingly), the rest of the AL East is BAL 35, TOR 34, BOS 31. BOS is tied for 27th with ATL, ahead of the Mets at 28 (good job Brodie) and the Nats at 26.


So what does this mean? Well, one thing is that I'd think it would be a lot easier for NY (or TBR or SDP) to put together a 3/4/5 man package for a player they wanted than for most other teams, they not only have depth to spare but the other GM would have more options to choose from presumably. Juan Then, the 19 year old pitcher NY just traded for Encarnacion, was #31 on NY's list before being dealt, but if DiPoto didn't like him (and he signed him originally, heh), NY had plenty of roughly similar alternatives.
 

jon abbey

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This is fun to play with, someone has set up a 'baseball trade values' site where you can try to put together proposed deals using the values they assign to each player:


One that 'works' is Matt Boyd and Shane Greene (44.0 combined value) for Frazier, Loaisiga, Wade, Holder and Adams (43.9 combined value). This would also work according to their numbers for Stroman/Giles (37.5 combined). Does NY really need a seventh back end reliever? No, but there is roster space and it would keep them away from the competition.

Also that site has way too high a value on Andujar (37.7 on his own), I would move him in a second if his actual relative value is anything close to that.

Greinke (-12.5 because of his contract) for Frazier/Ellsbury/Jordan Montgomery works too (-10 combined).

Also my proposal above of Clint (19.4) for Bryse Wilson (18.9) is almost a perfect match in their system.
 

DanoooME

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That simulator deserves its own thread. I can see what I am doing in between work the rest of the day.
 

RIrooter09

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According to this the Sox can get Trout for Benintendi, Casas, and Dalbec. Get it done Theo!
 

jon abbey

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According to this the Sox can get Trout for Benintendi, Casas, and Dalbec. Get it done Theo!
Even better, Pujols' negative value is almost as much as Trout's positive value, so you can keep most of your own talent and just take those two together.
 

DanoooME

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According to this the Sox can get Trout for Benintendi, Casas, and Dalbec. Get it done Theo!
JA, this is why the simulator needs its own thread. You're going to be inundated with crazy Sox and Yankees trade scenarios in no time.
 
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I'm not convinced that Cashman likes Bauer. He certainly doesn't fit the personality mold that we've tried to bring to the team.
I don't believe anyone likes Bauer. In the SI article, he came across as an absolute jerk and his attitude towards women was appalling.
 

crow216

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This is fun to play with, someone has set up a 'baseball trade values' site where you can try to put together proposed deals using the values they assign to each player:


One that 'works' is Matt Boyd and Shane Greene (44.0 combined value) for Frazier, Loaisiga, Wade, Holder and Adams (43.9 combined value). This would also work according to their numbers for Stroman/Giles (37.5 combined). Does NY really need a seventh back end reliever? No, but there is roster space and it would keep them away from the competition.

Also that site has way too high a value on Andujar (37.7 on his own), I would move him in a second if his actual relative value is anything close to that.

Greinke (-12.5 because of his contract) for Frazier/Ellsbury/Jordan Montgomery works too (-10 combined).

Also my proposal above of Clint (19.4) for Bryse Wilson (18.9) is almost a perfect match in their system.
Way too early sidenote: I think by next year Cashman will have to start planning for a post Aroldis Chapman world. I like Chapman, but I highly doubt he's on this team after the next two seasons.
 

jon abbey

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Cashman has to start moving relievers soon, maybe over the break. I think he moved five last deadline (Warren/Shreve/Cody Carroll/Gallegos/Frare) and again he has too many and he needs international spending space. Cessa and Holder and Adams all need to go, clear the 40 man space and give some other guys shots. Also he needs to thin out the middle infield pool, maybe Tyler Wade and the recently red-hot in AA Kyle Holder. Breyvic Valera I think has bumped Wade, as has young Thairo.
 

jon abbey

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The NY Post reports that the Yankees had a scout watching Syndergaard tonight.

Assuming the impossible for a second, that the Mets would be willing to trade Thor to the Yankees for the right price, I went to the trade tracker and it is almost impossible to come up with a match that makes sense both ways. But I think this would have to be tempting for Brodie and Cashman both:

Noah Syndergaard (27 in August, under contract through 2021, 2 1/2 seasons) (valued at 88.1)

for

Luis Severino (25, controlled through 2023) (valued at 87.5)
Deivi Garcia (just turned 20, started the Futures game last week, dominated AA and just promoted to AAA) (valued at 26.2) (or Clint Frazier or Estevan Florial or Loaisiga if Brodie prefers, literally any prospect who he wants except Jasson Dominguez who I don't think can be traded yet anyway)

So a big surplus value there to the Mets by the trade value machine, I'd even be happy to throw in a few smaller depth pieces if needed.

Then NY's rotation this year would be Syndergaard, Tanaka, Paxton, and 2 of Happ/CC/German. Next year CC will be gone, so the other five there would be the rotation, plus Montgomery/King as depth.
 

jon abbey

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The Mets' primary talent evaluator, former GM Omar Minaya, will be in attendance at Deivi Garcia's first AAA start tonight.
 

crow216

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The NY Post reports that the Yankees had a scout watching Syndergaard tonight.

Assuming the impossible for a second, that the Mets would be willing to trade Thor to the Yankees for the right price, I went to the trade tracker and it is almost impossible to come up with a match that makes sense both ways. But I think this would have to be tempting for Brodie and Cashman both:

Noah Syndergaard (27 in August, under contract through 2021, 2 1/2 seasons) (valued at 88.1)

for

Luis Severino (25, controlled through 2023) (valued at 87.5)
Deivi Garcia (just turned 20, started the Futures game last week, dominated AA and just promoted to AAA) (valued at 26.2) (or Clint Frazier or Estevan Florial or Loaisiga if Brodie prefers, literally any prospect who he wants except Jasson Dominguez who I don't think can be traded yet anyway)

So a big surplus value there to the Mets by the trade value machine, I'd even be happy to throw in a few smaller depth pieces if needed.

Then NY's rotation this year would be Syndergaard, Tanaka, Paxton, and 2 of Happ/CC/German. Next year CC will be gone, so the other five there would be the rotation, plus Montgomery/King as depth.
Why would we do this? I’m not just uncertain that Syndergaard is better than Severino, I’m pretty sure he’s not. What do we get from trading one potential ace for another potential ace?
 

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The NY Post reports that the Yankees had a scout watching Syndergaard tonight.

Assuming the impossible for a second, that the Mets would be willing to trade Thor to the Yankees for the right price, I went to the trade tracker and it is almost impossible to come up with a match that makes sense both ways. But I think this would have to be tempting for Brodie and Cashman both:

Noah Syndergaard (27 in August, under contract through 2021, 2 1/2 seasons) (valued at 88.1)

for

Luis Severino (25, controlled through 2023) (valued at 87.5)
Deivi Garcia (just turned 20, started the Futures game last week, dominated AA and just promoted to AAA) (valued at 26.2) (or Clint Frazier or Estevan Florial or Loaisiga if Brodie prefers, literally any prospect who he wants except Jasson Dominguez who I don't think can be traded yet anyway)

So a big surplus value there to the Mets by the trade value machine, I'd even be happy to throw in a few smaller depth pieces if needed.

Then NY's rotation this year would be Syndergaard, Tanaka, Paxton, and 2 of Happ/CC/German. Next year CC will be gone, so the other five there would be the rotation, plus Montgomery/King as depth.
Are the Mets sending Jeff McNeill too?
 

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5 innings, 6 hits, 3 runs, 1 W, 6 Ks. 85 pitches. Pretty solid considering first start in AAA at age 20.

If they trade this kid, they’re nuts.
 

jon abbey

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Why would we do this? I’m not just uncertain that Syndergaard is better than Severino, I’m pretty sure he’s not. What do we get from trading one potential ace for another potential ace?
Syndergaard is healthy now, and could maybe be dominant again with a better defense and analytics team behind him. It's an overpay certainly, maybe it's too much. Like I said, it's very hard to find a match that makes sense for both sides for Syndergaard.
 

jon abbey

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I guess the question is: Do the Yanks want to win now, or maybe next year with this kid in the rotation?
I don't think they'd move him if it wasn't for an ace-type, Syndergaard is under contract through 2021, so really the question is about filling the rotation in 2021 and beyond (Tanaka and Paxton and maybe Happ are only under contract through 2020).
 

crow216

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I mentioned this earlier but with Chapman now "officially" expected to opt out, I can see Cash planning ahead and putting more effort into bringing on another closer at this deadline.

Personally, I don't really feel strongly about bringing Chapman back. Cash is amazing at finding closers and bullpen arms, we'll figure it out.
 

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Just an observation: You guys discuss trade talks much more realistically than those in the Red Sox threads
 

terrynever

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I mentioned this earlier but with Chapman now "officially" expected to opt out, I can see Cash planning ahead and putting more effort into bringing on another closer at this deadline.

Personally, I don't really feel strongly about bringing Chapman back. Cash is amazing at finding closers and bullpen arms, we'll figure it out.
Isn’t Britton a qualified closer already under contract?
 

terrynever

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Yes, and I'm sure Cash will use that as leverage in case any teams feel he is desperate for a closer. But let's be realistic, Britton won't be the closer next year.
Why not? Britton will never duplicate his career year but he is a ground ball pitcher who still throws hard.

Hell, if Severino can’t get stretched out by September, he could end up in the bullpen. How about Seve as a closer down the line?

Or Betances. I just can’t see trading for a closer, as you suggested.