NY trade deadline 2019

jon abbey

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Starting this a bit early this year, we are past the draft and there is only one deadline this year, July 31.

It's so hard to figure out fair value for players especially as teams move more and more towards younger players who can be optioned, but I have two deals/targets that I have been thinking about a lot, so I wanted to share.

The first is a more obvious one, Matthew Boyd of DET, a 28 year old lefty SP who has blossomed this season (13 Ks against NY in early April in Yankee Stadium). He obviously doesn't have the track record of some of the bigger names mentioned, but he still has three years of arb left and is controllable through 2022. This one is tricky though, since I think for instance SD could easily outbid NY here if they chose and Cashman hates to pay up. I think this deal would need to involve Clint Frazier, Thairo Estrada and a couple of prospect arms, maybe that could work but it seems unlikely.

The second is the one I really can't stop thinking about, and it is Francisco Lindor (controlled through 2021) and Trevor Bauer (controlled through 2020) for Gleyber Torres (controlled through 2024) and some pitching prospects. Lindor/Bauer make a combined $23.5M this year, so NY could fit the remainder under the $246M cap, and CLE would obviously save a lot of money going forward, and it is clear that they almost certainly won't keep either of these players (Bauer has said he will only sign one year deals to the highest bidder once he hits FA and CLE ownership has basically said they will let Lindor go as he has turned down their extension offers). NY would then let Didi go this winter (Lindor is 3 1/2 years younger) and so they'd save money there, Didi could switch to 2B for the remainder of this season.

Anyway, curious what people think of that proposal, I have been thinking about it a lot and I think that 1) it makes sense for both teams, assuming CLE is out of the divisional hunt in mid-July and 2) neither team would actually say yes. Cashman has been really careful about the personalities of guys he brings in the last couple of seasons and Bauer would be tricky there, plus it's hard to imagine trading someone as good and as young and under control for as long as Gleyber, but this would also allow NY to keep guys like Frazier and Estrada, neither of whom have an obvious path to starting but both of whom can be quite helpful if needed as we've seen already this season.

FWIW, this train of thought stems in part from Buster Olney saying the other day that he thinks NY will trade for Lindor in the offseason, so why not now?

 

KiltedFool

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My Yankees hatred had died down a bit over the years, now it's back, just like my Sox hatred spiked when they traded for my favorite player at the 2009 deadline and members here immediately started their Veruca impressions wanting more.

There's some logic to it since Lindor has quietly turned down some offers that were real money. But the backlash will be absolutely massive, Lindor is the face of the franchise. I'm not current enough on young players and prospects to speak intelligently on what a good return is.

I watched Sabathia as a rookie so I've been down this road before.
 

NYCSox

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That sounds really light for the top SS in the game and a near ace starter.

Edit: Maybe if the Orioles were traded to the AL Central since Torres' numbers are goosed by that team.
 

jon abbey

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You need to factor in salary and years of control, Gleyber is 22, 3 years younger than Lindor, and doing things no Yankee that age has done since Mantle.

Edit: Pulled from my Twitter timeline this AM:

"Middle Infielders with 120 OPS+ Through Age 22 (700+ PA) Gleyber Torres, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken, Joe Morgan, Jim Fregosi, Vern Stephens, Arky Vaughan, Rogers Hornsby, Eddie Collins, Larry Doyle, Fred Dunlap"
 

DanoooME

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It's not like Cleveland has to slash payroll or anything. They are stuck with Santana for one more year (he's the highest paid guy on the team right now), but they might be able to get something for him with the way he's been hitting this year. Kluber has 2 team-friendly options coming up that, if he doesn't come back effective, they could decline and be free from his obligations (unlikely). Kipnis will be kicked to the curb, so his salary will be off the books after a $2.5M buyout. Bauer and Lindor will likely command over $30M in arb next year, but no one else is expensive, so there's no financial need to trade them both. I think it's going to take a big offer to get them at this point. Anything can happen, but it's probably going to cost Cashman too much to actually make the deal.
 

jon abbey

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Moving on to other names, Stroman is a much-mentioned target for NY also, as he is from Long Island and would love to play for the Yankees. Jim Bowden has a column up in the Athletic today where he thinks that Everson Pereira (one of NY's handful of very high ceiling international signing position players) and Thairo Estrada could be the main guys in a package for Stroman.
 

jon abbey

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It's not like Cleveland has to slash payroll or anything. They are stuck with Santana for one more year (he's the highest paid guy on the team right now), but they might be able to get something for him with the way he's been hitting this year. Kluber has 2 team-friendly options coming up that, if he doesn't come back effective, they could decline and be free from his obligations (unlikely). Kipnis will be kicked to the curb, so his salary will be off the books after a $2.5M buyout. Bauer and Lindor will likely command over $30M in arb next year, but no one else is expensive, so there's no financial need to trade them both. I think it's going to take a big offer to get them at this point. Anything can happen, but it's probably going to cost Cashman too much to actually make the deal.
Good post, thanks.
 

crow216

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If Cashman finds 2 more bullpen aces and a subpar number 3 pitcher this deadline, I'll be kind of annoyed. Also, that's probably what will happen.
 

jon abbey

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I am just hoping for an acquisition like LeMaheiu that most Yankee fans are going to cry and moan about and then it just turns out to be awesome.
The crazy part with LeMahieu was what Cone was saying on the broadcast last night, he had basically only ever played 2B in the majors but he immediately looked great at 3B and 1B too. No one expected that except Cashman and Jim Hendry (NY assistant now, the GM who drafted DJL originally in 2009).
 

Ford Frick's Asterisk

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I'll be surprised if Cleveland trades Lindor in the off-season and completely shocked if they trade him next month. As Kilted Fool said, it would be PR suicide... a Marlins type move. Cleveland sports fans are pretty understanding about our lot in life, and we're probably more supportive of team ownerships than most places. We know our stars will eventually leave for "greener" pastures, and we let ownership off the hook for that. However, I think Larry Dolan reached the nadir when he said just before the season that we should enjoy Lindor while we can. We all know he won't spend his career here, but Dolan broke the social contract of not pointing out the elephant in the room before it's necessary. Now they're struggling after he slashed the payroll of a defending division champion, assuming the AL Central couldn't be lost. Trading the face of the franchise with 2½ years left on his contract would permanently kill fan support of ownership and management.

If their financials are really that bad, they can still wait until the off-season when there's a larger market and a few months before they really have to face the public, but I think Danooo's post explains away why that's still unlikely. A Bauer trade wouldn't surprise me since even the casual fan knows he's going to max out arbitration for one more year and then leave. Also, while Lindor is hugely popular, Bauer never has been, rightly or wrongly, for not feigning the role of the cliched pro athlete. They also have MLB ready options for the rotation (Plesak might already be here long-term and Triston McKenzie is close to the majors if he can ever stay healthy), whereas trading Lindor requires another shortstop. I will be surprised if Bauer's in a Tribe uniform next spring.

I'm not even sure the Indians will be sellers though. Management seems to take a realistic approach, but they're currently just 1½ games out of a wild-card spot, and 31 of their 38 games remaining before the trade deadline are against sub-.500 teams (granted, dropping 4 next week in Arlington would be decisive). The team is still constructed to play for the Central title the next two years before a deep rebuild. Bauer is the only significant player not under team control through 2021 (Jason Kipnis is a good clubhouse guy, but on the field, they'll be happy to rid themselves of him and Leonys Martin), and most of their top prospects are still teenagers. Their focus in a now-for-later trade will be reloading with major league ready outfielders or a 2B/3B. If the Tribe is in selling mode next month, I'd expect it to be Bauer, any bullpen arm not named Brad Hand, and Leonys Martin (if anyone would actually take him off their hands).

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