NY trade deadline 2019

EvilEmpire

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Damn, I'd be fine with Britton as a closer. Ground ball pitcher in that stadium, with good defense behind him? Sure, I'll take that.

On a related note, I could be wrong, but as Sanchez improves behind the dish, blocking balls and whatnot, I think Britton might be getting more comfortable throwing to him. I think those two had some rough times working together last year.
 

crow216

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Damn, I'd be fine with Britton as a closer. Ground ball pitcher in that stadium, with good defense behind him? Sure, I'll take that.

On a related note, I could be wrong, but as Sanchez improves behind the dish, blocking balls and whatnot, I think Britton might be getting more comfortable throwing to him. I think those two had some rough times working together last year.
Fair enough. I'm not saying Britton is a bad option. Just not expecting him to be the guy next year.
 

terrynever

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Just an observation: You guys discuss trade talks much more realistically than those in the Red Sox threads
Two words: Jon Abbey. He set the tone a long time ago and occasionally polices the conversation. And he knows more about the Yankees than the rest of us combined.
 

jon abbey

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Thanks, Terry.

Chapman opting out and Betances hitting FA is probably part of why Cashman signed both Britton and Ottavino last winter to three year deals.

Chapman (signed through 2021, optout possible/likely this winter)
Betances (FA)
Britton (signed through 2021)
Ottavino (signed through 2021)
Kahnle (signed through 2020)
Green (signed through 2022)

So they'd be OK even with no Chapman, the last four there are still here next year. But it's a good point that may be some of why Cashman is interested in another guy controlled past this season if he can get him at a reasonable price this deadline. Ken Giles is dealing with nerve inflammation, hasn't pitched since July 4, but threw 20 pitches off a mound yesterday and is supposedly back tonight if needed. Shane Greene also is available and a former Yankee, both Giles and Greene are controlled through 2020.
 

jon abbey

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NY has a bunch of guys in AAA waiting for their shot also: we have seen Tarpley and Harvey on and off this year, but the two guys NY got from CLE in the Andrew Miller deal (besides Sheffield and Frazier), Ben Heller and JP Feyereisen both look ready too. Heller is back from Tommy John and has done 5 rehab outings, Feyereisen has been great in AAA all season which is especially impressive given the new balls they're using there this season.


 

ThePrideofShiner

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Is there no thought that they won't just add a couple of years on Chapman's deal to keep him around? This has been possibly his best season in New York, so not sure why they would be content with letting him walk.
 

EvilEmpire

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Is there no thought that they won't just add a couple of years on Chapman's deal to keep him around? This has been possibly his best season in New York, so not sure why they would be content with letting him walk.
Good question. He's 31. I don't know what the aging curves for power relievers look like anymore, but I'd be a little worried about his effectiveness going forward as his age-related fastball velocity drops.

I wonder how many years he'll be looking for.
 

TheDivision

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If they know they won't resign/extend him, and if Betances is returning this year then they should entertain trade offers. Looking at the trend of his velocity , there is no doubt that it's declining.
 

jon abbey

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They'd probably give him one more year if that was enough for him, dunno about more than that.
 

jon abbey

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If they know they won't resign/extend him, and if Betances is returning this year then they should entertain trade offers. Looking at the trend of his velocity , there is no doubt that it's declining.
Come on, they're not going to trade him with the position they're in, and also I think velocity is a little deceptive in his case as he often comes in at 96-97 and then amps up to 101 or 102 if he gets deep into an inning and needs it. I think he's lost a mile or two but his slider is probably the best it's ever been, D'Arnaud AB excepted.
 

jon abbey

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FWIW:

"Aroldis Chapman said that any talk that he has decided to opt out of his #Yankees contract is “completely false.” He said that he has not spoken to his agent about the topic, and will wait until after the season to do so."
 

jon abbey

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Not on the 40 man, will report to Scranton, Sept pinch-running possibility after Cashman clears some 40 man space in the next couple of weeks. Also, he invented the internet.
 

jon abbey

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Coming into this season, Gore had the hilarious career combo of 19 PAs and 27 SBs.
 

jon abbey

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NY has a bunch of guys in AAA waiting for their shot also: we have seen Tarpley and Harvey on and off this year, but the two guys NY got from CLE in the Andrew Miller deal (besides Sheffield and Frazier), Ben Heller and JP Feyereisen both look ready too. Heller is back from Tommy John and has done 5 rehab outings, Feyereisen has been great in AAA all season which is especially impressive given the new balls they're using there this season.


Well, maybe take Heller out of the picture, fuck.

“Ben Heller, who has been on the IL after Tommy John surgery, has been pulled from his rehab assignment at Triple-A, Aaron Boone says. He’s been feeling something in his “elbow/forearm,” Boone mentioned. He’s coming to New York to be evaluated.”
 

jon abbey

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10 days to go, and everyone is circling each other but almost nothing has happened. It is hard for me to find a deal that makes sense for both NY and the other team, but here is one, I think.

Robbie Ray to NY
Clint Frazier, Jordan Montgomery and a third piece to ARI

ARI is at 50-50 currently and a few games out of the wild card, but they are desperately thin in the outfield, playing Jarrod Dyson and Adam Jones and Tim Locastro in the corners currently with no good prospects anywhere near. Frazier would fill a huge need for them immediately and long-term and Montgomery can replace Ray by the start of next season at the latest (maybe sooner) as he is very close to being back from Tommy John. Ray is only under control through 2020, Frazier and Montgomery both through 2023.

Those two by themselves are more than enough according to baseballtradevalues.com (Ray-22.9, Frazier-19.4, Montgomery-6.8) but Cashman has so much depth that he could afford to throw in a third piece if needed. This could be a MLB-ready reliever (like Gallegos who they sent to STL last year), one of their many utility infielders who are blocked (Estrada, Wade, Valera), one of their many high-ceiling pitching prospects, or one of their many tempting teenage position players.

Teams aren't always rational about their own players, but that seems like it makes sense all around. Make it so, Brian.
 

jon abbey

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Jim Bowden, who is often full of shit, published an overall trade deadline update story on The Athletic just now, and this is his final paragraph:

"The one guarantee I’ll make is that the Yankees will get another starting pitcher, and you don’t have to put that in pencil, pen or Sharpie … just put it in cement. I don’t know which one of Bauer, Syndergaard, Stroman, Minor, Boyd or Bumgarner they will end up with — but they’re getting someone. Book it."

I'm going to go ahead based on nothing except my own knowledge/perception and disagree with that, because NY doesn't need to be desperate here given their depth and say that there's a real chance Cashman doesn't trade for an impact starter if prices aren't what he deems reasonable.
 

Wingack

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10 days to go, and everyone is circling each other but almost nothing has happened. It is hard for me to find a deal that makes sense for both NY and the other team, but here is one, I think.

Robbie Ray to NY
Clint Frazier, Jordan Montgomery and a third piece to ARI

ARI is at 50-50 currently and a few games out of the wild card, but they are desperately thin in the outfield, playing Jarrod Dyson and Adam Jones and Tim Locastro in the corners currently with no good prospects anywhere near. Frazier would fill a huge need for them immediately and long-term and Montgomery can replace Ray by the start of next season at the latest (maybe sooner) as he is very close to being back from Tommy John. Ray is only under control through 2020, Frazier and Montgomery both through 2023.

Those two by themselves are more than enough according to baseballtradevalues.com (Ray-22.9, Frazier-19.4, Montgomery-6.8) but Cashman has so much depth that he could afford to throw in a third piece if needed. This could be a MLB-ready reliever (like Gallegos who they sent to STL last year), one of their many utility infielders who are blocked (Estrada, Wade, Valera), one of their many high-ceiling pitching prospects, or one of their many tempting teenage position players.

Teams aren't always rational about their own players, but that seems like it makes sense all around. Make it so, Brian.
I think that’s a fair deal.
 

terrynever

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Jim Bowden, who is often full of shit, published an overall trade deadline update story on The Athletic just now, and this is his final paragraph:

"The one guarantee I’ll make is that the Yankees will get another starting pitcher, and you don’t have to put that in pencil, pen or Sharpie … just put it in cement. I don’t know which one of Bauer, Syndergaard, Stroman, Minor, Boyd or Bumgarner they will end up with — but they’re getting someone. Book it."

I'm going to go ahead based on nothing except my own knowledge/perception and disagree with that, because NY doesn't need to be desperate here given their depth and say that there's a real chance Cashman doesn't trade for an impact starter if prices aren't what he deems reasonable.
What is his supporting evidence ... law of averages? There are negative reasons behind each of those pitchers. Cashman will probably hold off until 3:30 on July 31. Unless someone caves, he can stand pat.
 

EvilEmpire

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I'm not convinced a postseason difference maker will be available for anything close to what Cashman would pay. Who are the potential difference makers on that list? Syndergaard and Bauer?
 

jon abbey

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I'm not convinced a postseason difference maker will be available for anything close to what Cashman would pay. Who are the potential difference makers on that list? Syndergaard and Bauer?
I think the goal should be a guy who will slot somewhere into NY's top 4, which currently would probably be Tanaka/German/Paxton/CC, with Happ on the outside and Severino still a question mark, and ideally they should be under team control through at least 2020 (this applies to pretty much everyone available except Wheeler). I think there's a big gap between buyers and sellers right now, but maybe that will narrow by next week. For instance, TOR would be quite dumb to not move Stroman and Giles, so then it's a question of how high other teams are willing to go in comparison to Cashman. Cashman does need to thin out his roster too, which is another reason a Robbie Ray trade could work, as ARI could use relief help too.
 

TheDivision

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What is his supporting evidence ... law of averages? There are negative reasons behind each of those pitchers. Cashman will probably hold off until 3:30 on July 31. Unless someone caves, he can stand pat.
He's probably guessing based on what Yankees' scouts have been doing, for instance they were at Stroman's last game against Detroit. Also probably the uncertainty surrounding Paxton and even Severino as to whether or not he can be fully stretched out.
 

terrynever

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He's probably guessing based on what Yankees' scouts have been doing, for instance they were at Stroman's last game against Detroit. Also probably the uncertainty surrounding Paxton and even Severino as to whether or not he can be fully stretched out.
Guessing is an applicable word for Bowden’s guarantee.
 

jon abbey

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Zach Greinke and Felipe Vazquez, please.

Greinke shouldn't cost too much in prospects if NY takes his whole deal and I think they can do that if ARI takes back the last 1 1/3 years of Ellsbury (he would have to agree but he lives and allegedly rehabs in Arizona). ARI badly needs depth and NY has that to give away, in quantity.

Vazquez I don't really see a fit in terms of NY's matching talent, but if Cashman wants him badly enough (I have drooled over him from afar in posts here for a couple of seasons), maybe he can figure something out. He is 28 and controllable through 2023, so it will hurt, plus every other team needs him more than NY. Deivi and Clint for Vazquez is almost a perfect match in the trade value machine (49.8 to 49.3), I think I would do that. Then their postseason bullpen would have this back seven (alternating L/R):

Green
Kahnle
Britton
Ottavino
Vazquez
Betances
Chapman
 

Wingack

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We all love Cashman but I think one deal he would love to have back is trading Caleb Smith to the Marlins for Garrett Cooper. Smith is performing better than anyone the Yankees have this year.
 

jon abbey

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We all love Cashman but I think one deal he would love to have back is trading Caleb Smith to the Marlins for Garrett Cooper. Smith is performing better than anyone the Yankees have this year.
The deal was actually Smith and Cooper for Michael King and international cap money, trying to clear 40 man space in 2017.

King is interesting, he absolutely dominated AAA down the stretch last year and was probably NY's 7th or 8th starter coming into spring training (behind German, who was 6th, and maybe behind Loaisiga too) but got hurt and has just started coming back the last couple of weeks. Last October this deal looked like a steal for NY because of King, it will be interesting to see how Smith and King do from here.
 

crow216

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With Bauer's blow-up yesterday, I wonder how much, if any, impact it has on his suitors. If there is a buy low(er) opportunity, I would open that door and take the risk. Do I want him, no. But 5 years ago we didn't want Grienke either and now we'd be lucky to acquire him.
 

jon abbey

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Nick Markakis fractured his wrist last week and is out 6-8 weeks and ATL is looking for an outfielder, so Clint going there in exchange for young pitching could make sense both ways (just my own hypothesis, I talked about this possibility before Markakis got hurt but now it makes even more sense).
 

TheDivision

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It's a logical proposition that benefits both clubs. I know many love Frazier but there is no need for him in the OF. Unless there is something that we don't know - like him turning into an outfielder who can challenge those on the field now and those coming back.
 

jon abbey

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And even more so with Tauchman possibly blossoming and Gardner looking like he might deserve to be signed for yet another year.
 

crow216

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When is the last time Gammons broke a story? Not saying he isn't a big name in journalism but I'm not sure there's much smoke there.
 

BaseballJones

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Zach Greinke and Felipe Vazquez, please.

Greinke shouldn't cost too much in prospects if NY takes his whole deal and I think they can do that if ARI takes back the last 1 1/3 years of Ellsbury (he would have to agree but he lives and allegedly rehabs in Arizona). ARI badly needs depth and NY has that to give away, in quantity.
Holy crap they still have ANOTHER year of Ellsbury under contract?
 

jon abbey

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It'd be nice to move Mike Ford for some value, he is leading the IL in OPS (the only one in the league over 1.000 currently) and he is pretty stuck in AAA for NY.
 

crow216

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Just to appease @BaseballJones

Archie Bradley has a 4.30 ERA and 3.19 FIP. He had 3 blowups in June, when removed, his ERA drops to 3.16 and is 1.85 since May 18.
 

crow216

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It'd be nice to move Mike Ford for some value, he is leading the IL in OPS (the only one in the league over 1.000 currently) and he is pretty stuck in AAA for NY.
I thought Stanton was leading the IL in OPS?

Sorry, I'm bored.
 

BaseballJones

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Just to appease @BaseballJones

Archie Bradley has a 4.30 ERA and 3.19 FIP. He had 3 blowups in June, when removed, his ERA drops to 3.16 and is 1.85 since May 18.
I can appreciate that you're busting my chops, and that's cool. But if you had two pitchers with the same overall numbers, would you rather have a pitcher that consistently gives up a run or two, or a guy that consistently puts up zeroes but has a blowup game every now and then? I'd take the latter.
 

jon abbey

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I can appreciate that you're busting my chops, and that's cool. But if you had two pitchers with the same overall numbers, would you rather have a pitcher that consistently gives up a run or two, or a guy that consistently puts up zeroes but has a blowup game every now and then? I'd take the latter.
Actually with relievers it totally depends on context. Chapman gave up 2 runs Sunday night but he came in leading by 5, so who cares?
 

BaseballJones

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Actually with relievers it totally depends on context. Chapman gave up 2 runs Sunday night but he came in leading by 5, so who cares?
Right, but you wouldn't want Chapman to consistently give up runs, would you? You'd rather have him put up tons of zeroes and then have the occasional blow up game, especially because zeroes never hurt you, and sometimes blowup games don't either. He could have had a blowup game on Sunday night and given up four runs in 1 inning and the Yanks still would have won.

But a late-inning reliever who consistently gives up runs....that's bad because it'll cost you leads much more than you'd like.
 

crow216

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I can appreciate that you're busting my chops, and that's cool. But if you had two pitchers with the same overall numbers, would you rather have a pitcher that consistently gives up a run or two, or a guy that consistently puts up zeroes but has a blowup game every now and then? I'd take the latter.
I am busting chops. There just isn't much predictive value in cherry picking. I would choose the guy who is lights out 90% of the time but the problem with these pitchers is no more evident than with the Yankees. Exhibit A Chad Green. Exhibit B Tommy Kahnle. Exhibit C Delin Betances. Three pitchers who have lights out stuff, good track records, but when they blow up it tends to carry on for weeks and take a lot of tinkering. If timed poorly, these guys are completely useless in the postseason.
 

crow216

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The more I look at Robbie Ray, the more I love him. Initially was turned off by his HR and walk stats but he contains it with his high K rates. He has not allowed more than 5 ER in any start and has done that twice, once in April and once in June. He consistently pitches into the 6th inning and has done so in every June and July start except one. If you're like me and want to see a side-by-side of runs to ER, he's alllowed 56 ER and only 63 runs. Which means he hasn't had to be let off the hook too many times for otherwise poor starts hidden by good stats.

Like most pitchers, his numbers suffer the 3rd time through the order (.900 ops), something that NYY will help mitigate with a much better bullpen. I think he is a great fit.
 

jon abbey

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It'd be nice to move Mike Ford for some value, he is leading the IL in OPS (the only one in the league over 1.000 currently) and he is pretty stuck in AAA for NY.
And he just homered again, his 23rd in 281 ABs.

Yeah, the possible Ray acquisition is catching a lot of flak on Twitter and the dumbest of all Yankee sites, nyyfans, but a deal for Ray/Bradley built around Clint Frazier plus a bunch of depth pieces seems to make sense all around. ARI really needs corner OFs and bullpen depth.