NY rotation 2019

jon abbey

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Huh, Loaisiga coming up tomorrow to give everyone an extra day rest, I guess Green will go down and then maybe Tarpley or Acevedo come up on Wednesday for Loaisiga?
 

jon abbey

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OK, I haven't updated this in almost a month and there has been a bunch of news, so let me give it another shot. As before, guys in parentheses are injured and placed where I think they slot in if healthy. German is 4th here just because he has an option, but he has clearly been NY's best pitcher so far this season.

(Severino) (out until the ASB)
Tanaka
(Paxton) (got a cortisone shot, Cashman expects him out three weeks at the most)
Happ
Sabathia
German
(Montgomery) (aiming for July or August return last I heard)
Loaisiga (back in next time around for Paxton)

AAA: Nestor Cortes, *Chance Adams, David Hale, Drew Hutchison (*Michael King)
AA: *Deivi Garcia, *Albert Abreu, Rony Garcia, Nick Green (*Trevor Stephan, *Garrett Whitlock, *Nick Nelson)
A: *Clarke Schmidt, Frank German, Glenn Otto, Miguel Yajure, Shawn Semple
low A: *Roansy Contreras, *Luis Gil, *Luis Medina, Jio Orozco, Daniel Bies (Tanner Myatt)

David Hale or Nestor Cortes is NY's 6th guy right now, I believe, unless they tried to stretch out Cessa. Chad Green threw three innings/41 pitches last outing in AAA, but I think the ship has sailed on him being a SP.
 

jon abbey

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Loaisiga is hurt yet again, so some combo of Cessa and Chance Adams seem to covering the 5th spot for now. The good news for NY here is that Paxton seems to be fine and should be back in a week or two, they said today he might not even need a rehab game.

Also Chance Adams has had three very good starts in a row in AAA, so maybe he is finally back to 2016-2017 form (when he went a combined 28-6 with a 2.40 ERA in 277 innings at the three highest minor league levels combined).
 

jon abbey

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NY is using an opener again today, the 3rd or 4th time this week, but they are expecting Paxton back Wednesday and CC back Sunday, so then they will have a full rotation again. And signs of life on the Severino front:

"Luis Severino says he will see the doctor today to get cleared to begin playing catch. He expects to throw flatground from just 60 feet today or tomorrow. Says he hasn't felt any pain in his shoulder/lat in about three weeks."

Lots of rumors about NY being interested in Keuchel once the draft compensation is gone in a week, but I'm still not sure I see the fit. With Severino and Montgomery both still out, NY does have a big dropoff to the 6th starter (David Hale? Chance Adams? Nestor Cortes Jr.?), but if the main five guys are healthy on June 3rd, not sure how Keuchel would slot in or even how much of an upgrade he'd be.
 

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NY is using an opener again today, the 3rd or 4th time this week, but they are expecting Paxton back Wednesday and CC back Sunday, so then they will have a full rotation again. And signs of life on the Severino front:

"Luis Severino says he will see the doctor today to get cleared to begin playing catch. He expects to throw flatground from just 60 feet today or tomorrow. Says he hasn't felt any pain in his shoulder/lat in about three weeks."

Lots of rumors about NY being interested in Keuchel once the draft compensation is gone in a week, but I'm still not sure I see the fit. With Severino and Montgomery both still out, NY does have a big dropoff to the 6th starter (David Hale? Chance Adams? Nestor Cortes Jr.?), but if the main five guys are healthy on June 3rd, not sure how Keuchel would slot in or even how much of an upgrade he'd be.
I think there may be a question about how much fuel CC's knee has left in the tank and they do need some sort of backup plan if German regresses, Severino never gets fully healty, and Paxton is a coin flip.

Edit: Also, we have a good amount of space under the cap still. If Cash plans on trading for a starter, I'd rather buy one.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, that all makes sense, and German likely can't stay in the rotation all season because of innings.
 

jon abbey

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A quick update here with Keuchel going to the Braves:

NY has a full rotation for the first time since Loaisiga got hurt:

Paxton
Tanaka
Happ
German
Sabathia

They also have David Hale as the 8th guy in the bullpen (they can't send him down because he has no options) and Chance Adams has been pitching great in AAA, back to 2017 form. His last five starts a combined 31.2 ip, 17 h, 3 r, 3 er, 6 bb, 27 k, 0.85 ERA.

Also Severino seems to be progressing well and expects to be back just after the ASB, which is July 12. Jordan Montgomery also expects to be ready by August sometime, although I haven't heard an update on him in a bit.

So Cashman will I'm sure look to upgrade, but I don't think he has to if he's not comfortable. Don't settle, get someone you're really happy with or stand pat.
 

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B a-rod bought up a great point on sunday night baseball trade for max S of Wash we need someone that can outpitch justin V of HOU
 

jon abbey

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He's not the first to bring up Scherzer, but WAS have won 9 of 11 and are creeping back into the race, plus it's far from clear they'd be willing to move Scherzer anyway, plus how much talent does it make sense to give up for a guy who is owed something like $90M for the next 2 1/2 seasons?
 

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He's not the first to bring up Scherzer, but WAS have won 9 of 11 and are creeping back into the race, plus it's far from clear they'd be willing to move Scherzer anyway, plus how much talent does it make sense to give up for a guy who is owed something like $90M for the next 2 1/2 seasons?
Scherzer's deal is a bit unusual. Per Cot's:

salaries: 15:$10M, 16-18:$15M annually. 19-21:$35M annually

2019-21 salaries ($105M) deferred without interest, to be paid in seven $15M installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2028

for purposes of annual payrolls (including salaries and a pro-rated 1/7 share of the signing bonus), Scherzer will earn $17,142,857 in 2015, $22,142,857 annually in 2016-18, $37,405,562 in 2019, $35,920,616 in 2020, and $34,503,480 in 2021 (salaries and bonus paid before the contract expires are not discounted, but 2019-21 salaries are discounted to $30,262,705, $28,777,759 and $27,360,623, respectively, as money paid after deal’s expiration)

for luxury-tax purposes, Scherzer’s annual salary is $28,689,376
Plus he gets 10 and 5 protection after 2019, so if they are going to trade him, this year is the year. But it would be some interesting negotiations around how the cash flow would work. I would think NY would have to pick all of it up, but they don't actually outlay anything until 2022.
 

crow216

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He's not the first to bring up Scherzer, but WAS have won 9 of 11 and are creeping back into the race, plus it's far from clear they'd be willing to move Scherzer anyway, plus how much talent does it make sense to give up for a guy who is owed something like $90M for the next 2 1/2 seasons?
and is 34
 

crow216

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And Bumgarner, who is allowing more HRs this year, coming to Yankee Stadium...might not be great.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I don't totally understand the Scherzer contract, but...

I would think NY would have to pick all of it up, but they don't actually outlay anything until 2022.
This would put them over $246M unless they could get rid of some of Ellsbury's money by bundling him with talent elsewhere. I think the latter is probably possible but Cashman hasn't shown an interest in doing that as of yet (maybe if NY had a loaded system like SD or ATL, but they don't anymore), so another reason why I think Scherzer is very unlikely (the main one being I just don't think WAS will pull the trigger on trading him).
 

jon abbey

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Time to give Chance Adams the chance he has been waiting for since 2017.
 

jon abbey

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Drew Hutchison, who was in the Toronto rotation for a while, was released from the Scranton rotation tonight which he has been part of since the start of the season. His season-long numbers look bad but he was 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts, I am curious if he asked for his release or if it was NY's decision, interesting to release even a depth guy at this point and if it was NY's impetus, I think that means something will happen soon on the SP front. He was supposed to start for Scranton tomorrow, maybe someone told his agent they would pick him up if he was available.
 

jon abbey

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Updating this a couple weeks later, cut and pasted from above...

==================

A quick update here with Keuchel going to the Braves:

NY has a full rotation for the first time since Loaisiga got hurt:

Paxton
Tanaka
Happ
German
Sabathia

They also have David Hale as the 8th guy in the bullpen (they can't send him down because he has no options) and Chance Adams has been pitching great in AAA, back to 2017 form. His last five starts a combined 31.2 ip, 17 h, 3 r, 3 er, 6 bb, 27 k, 0.85 ERA.

Also Severino seems to be progressing well and expects to be back just after the ASB, which is July 12. Jordan Montgomery also expects to be ready by August sometime, although I haven't heard an update on him in a bit.

So Cashman will I'm sure look to upgrade, but I don't think he has to if he's not comfortable. Don't settle, get someone you're really happy with or stand pat."

==================

All that has changed since then is German is on the DL (the next day report sounded like as much of a managing innings thing as an actual injury, but no update since then, about a week) and Cortes Jr. has jumped up as a legit 5 inning 5th SP possibility, he had 13 straight scoreless innings over 4 appearances before Holder let in his inherited runners on Sunday and got up to 75 pitches. Also his last two AAA starts (May 4, June 5) were both dominant, 13.2 2 0 0 3 19 combined. They have been pairing him with Chad Green as an opener, they got through 7 combined on Sunday.

So it is obviously a continually fluid situation, the guys I see right now as legit possibilities are Boyd and Stroman, but it depends on price and if it's Stroman, not thrilled about facing Clint 19 times a year every season. German's injury makes the situation more urgent, but if they know he is more towards resting than hurt and will be back in a few weeks, then that obviously lessens the urgency.
 

crow216

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Which of those guys gets pushed out of the rotation if we acquire someone? Montgomery, German, and Loaisiga are great for next year but I don't think they fit into this year's rotation if everyone is healthy. We may not have quality right this second but we certainly have quantity.
 

jon abbey

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If they actually end up with more than 5 healthy guys, they can juggle them like the Dodgers do with phantom DL stints.

Also bad news on Montgomery today, he shut down his bullpen session in Tampa after feeling discomfort.

But good news on German, who is throwing on flat ground again, and Severino seems roughly on track to be back in late July or so.

"Luis Severino said he expects to throw from a mound for the first time either 6/25 or 6/26 He believes they’ll make him throw at least 5 bullpens before graduating to a sim game and eventual rehab starts"
 

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German isn't going to have the innings, even if he is healthy later. Hopefully Severino takes his place. CC probably has to be the odd man out if the Yankees acquire someone from outside the organization.

Edit: I posted while JA was typing, but his first line sounds about right, with emphasis on his first word "if". I'll be happy if we get to worry about an overabundance of healthy SPs.
 

jon abbey

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Well, if German can go 150 innings as Joel Sherman guessed earlier in the season, this break might allow him to keep to that once he is back.
 

terrynever

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If we’re judging based solely on performance, CC has to go. But how will the team handle a delicate situation? Injury List, come back in September after rosters expand?
 

crow216

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CC is a team player, once he gets his win I don't think there will be any issues from him regarding playing time. However, he will likely never come off the roster unless he's hurt. Phantom 30 day DL, aka "vacation with the family in August", notwithstanding.
 

jon abbey

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He can always take Hale's spot as long guy/emergency starter, but let's see Cashman actually pull the trigger on giving up the assets for an upgrade first, because I am somewhat doubtful that will happen.
 

jon abbey

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Update on this, "Drew Hutchison, who was released Monday, had an out in his contract, Jay Bell said.", which makes sense.

Drew Hutchison, who was in the Toronto rotation for a while, was released from the Scranton rotation tonight which he has been part of since the start of the season. His season-long numbers look bad but he was 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts, I am curious if he asked for his release or if it was NY's decision, interesting to release even a depth guy at this point and if it was NY's impetus, I think that means something will happen soon on the SP front. He was supposed to start for Scranton tomorrow, maybe someone told his agent they would pick him up if he was available.
 

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Well, if German can go 150 innings as Joel Sherman guessed earlier in the season, this break might allow him to keep to that once he is back.
Unless I'm missing something on baseball ref, German only pitched 94 innings last year between the MLB club and a little time in the minors. 150 seems like a big jump.

That said, I know they'll be looking at factors beyond IP last year and this season to make that decision.
 

jon abbey

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Unless I'm missing something on baseball ref, German only pitched 94 innings last year between the MLB club and a little time in the minors. 150 seems like a big jump.

That said, I know they'll be looking at factors beyond IP last year and this season to make that decision.
Yeah, he is 26 so they worry a bit less about it once you get over 25, and he has gotten up to 125 or so a few times before. Here is the Sherman piece I referenced:

 

jon abbey

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NY with a very strong turn through the rotation the past 5 games:

Green / Cortes: 7 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 13 K
Paxton: 6 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Tanaka: 9 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
Happ: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Sabathia: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
 

jon abbey

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It sounds like German might be ready to rejoin the rotation when NY is back from London in 10 days or so, very good news.

"Domingo Germán (left hip flexor) says his recuperation has been “really good, really fast.” Today, he threw a bullpen for the first time. He threw 25 pitches. Expects to have another bullpen Monday, and will have to make a start in the minors before he’s back in rotation."
 

jon abbey

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German's bullpen on Monday went great, he is set for a rehab start in AAA on Thursday and then would be back after NY gets back from London if it goes well.
 

jon abbey

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Michael King, who was amazing in the minors last year (1.79 ERA in 161 innings between high A/AA/AAA, 1.15 ERA in 39 innings in AAA), is finally getting his season going after elbow discomfort in the spring. He will pitch in the GCL this week and presumably be back in AAA once he is stretched out a bit.

So NY should have quite a few options in house, a quick rundown:

Current rotation:

Tanaka
Paxton
German
Happ
Sabathia

Long guys who could go 4-5 innings:

Cortes Jr
Hale

Still expected back from injury before the end of the season:

Severino
Montgomery
Loaisiga
King

Deivi Garcia is on the fast track (promoted to AAA yesterday at 20) but will run into innings limits before too long. There is a chance they will bring him up and let him get his feet wet in the bullpen, but I think no chance he will get big league starts this season.
 

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Three weeks to go before the deadline, NY still reportedly going hard after a SP, and possibly after yet another back end reliever too (if this happens, it makes me more nervous about Betances' return). Let me take a crack at handicapping the possibilities:

Matt Boyd (DET): Much more team control than the others and so he will cost more, also could be packaged with Shane Greene. I think the prospect price here will be not quite worth it for Cashman, I think Boyd goes to the Astros.

Trevor Bauer (CLE): I don't believe they will trade him but if they do, I have said since the offseason that I think it will be to the NL, maybe the Padres. The last thing CLE needs is to have Trevor Bauer beating them in playoff games.

Marcus Stroman (TOR): This seems like the most likely, he is probably a #3 but under contract through 2020 and would give NY another option to fit somewhere in their postseason group. I would hate to move Clint Frazier within the AL East but unless they can figure out a match from the very young side (Florial/Gil and Wade, maybe?), Clint probably has to be part of this. I would love if this happens to get Giles too (both Stroman and Giles are under contract through 2020).

Zach Greinke (ARI): ARI hasn't decided if they are selling or not yet and Robbie Ray was rumored to NY but to me Greinke is a better fit. He would not have been when he was younger but he is almost 36 now and the closest thing to an ace that might be available. I think NY could even move the last year and a half of Ellsbury's deal in this, Greinke is owed so so much more and Ellsbury has Arizona roots, he grew up in part there and runs a baseball camp every summer there and I believe he has a house there. Obviously NY would have to include Clint Frazier and more in addition to those two, but I could see this one happening too if ARI falls out of it more in the next week or two.

Madison Bumgarner (SF): It's hard to imagine NY's analytics matching up with SF's likely asking price here, plus somehow SF is currently only 5 1/2 games out of a wild card. This one was always pretty unlikely to me, just not sure he has the stuff anymore.

Anyone from the Mets: I will believe it when it actually happens and not before, I would not hold my breath. Besides the Wilpons' understandable inferiority complex, Brodie got ripped off badly by DiPoto, who Cashman seems to take advantage of a few times each year. Brodie I don't think has the balls to match his player evaluation with Cashman and co., but we'll see. Also Wheeler is like Burnett or Pineda, amazing stuff but completely unreliable, I don't see it.

Clint is pretty expendable now, his bat is legit (.843 in 191 PAs at 24 this year) but he is behind Judge/Stanton/Hicks and now even Gardner looks like he might stick around for yet another season. NY needs a second OF who can play CF adequately behind Hicks, Judge can occasionally but ideally not for a prolonged period, Stanton no, Tauchman can but hasn't hit much yet, and Gardner is up to 15 HRs already with again solid D, so maybe he is back again next year, leaving Clint as the 5th option in a 4 man OF again. DH could open up again if they don't pick up Encarnacion's option, but Andujar should be back in the picture there also.

So if none of the above work out to Cashman's satisfaction, I can still see him trying to flip Clint for the rough equivalent in a SP prospect, my suggestion earlier was Bryse WIlson from ATL. TB got Tyler Glasnow last deadline, Giolito maybe could have been gotten last summer when he was horrendous, maybe Cashman can find someone like that who no one is rumoring. There are only a handful of genuine playoff impact 'aces' and outside of maybe Greinke, I don't think any of them are moving this month, but adding SP depth is always good.
 

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Would you want Bauer on the team? The Yanks actually seem to have a group of really decent guys on the team. Bauer comes of as a loner, a weirdo and an asshole.
 

jon abbey

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Would you want Bauer on the team? The Yanks actually seem to have a group of really decent guys on the team. Bauer comes of as a loner, a weirdo and an asshole.
Yeah, I was going to put that in too actually, thanks for reminding me. I think NY has a really strong clubhouse and could deal with someone like that if they had ace results, but I'm not sure Bauer quite is that but like I said, I don't see CLE trading him to NY anyway. Could you imagine the flak they would get if Bauer won a ALDS game 5 for NY to knock them out?
 

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Bauer is tough because it's easy to see how he might conflict with someone like CC in the clubhouse. The perception he puts off in twitter is that he's confrontational and arrogant. I like that on the mount, not on microphone.
 

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If I had to guess without any info if NY would be interested in adding Bauer at a fair price, I would say no because of his personality, but Tim Naehring, who is NY's primary talent evaluator (the current equivalent of Gene Michael), evidently scouted him in person last week, so they probably are in. I still think it will never be an actual decision they have to make and that CLE sends him to the NL if they move him.
 

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I didn’t realize he was a birther until yesterday. I can’t imagine that’s worth taking on for a guy with 1.5 seasons with an ERA under 4 in the AL Central, even if he can throw 20 different pitches.
 

crow216

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I didn’t realize he was a birther until yesterday. I can’t imagine that’s worth taking on for a guy with 1.5 seasons with an ERA under 4 in the AL Central, even if he can throw 20 different pitches.
Someone needs to represent the team next year in the White House...
 

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Cashman just said on @Jim_Duquette Sirius/Xm show that Deivi García is “pushing himself into the mix” for helping this year.

In the bullpen maybe, no way they’ll let him have enough innings to help in the rotation. Right now he is just a few under his 2018 total, and he has yet to debut in AAA. Mike King is more likely IMO, very curious to see how he ramps up after dominating AAA down the stretch last year.
 

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Another guy who will be ahead of Deivi if healthy:

"Jonathan Loaisiga pitched a simulated game in Tampa this morning, according to a source"
 

jon abbey

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Why couldn’t Garcia be an opener?
In September with expanded rosters? Sure, but that’s a bullpen role to me essentially.

But also an opener for who? Paxton could use one with how terrible he’s been in first innings, but are they actually going to do that? They have 5 deserving starters now, 6 if they trade for someone, 7 if Severino gets back, more if any of Loaisiga or Montgomery or King get back.
 

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I think ideally you use a lefty opener ahead of a righty SP and vice versa.
 

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Michael King up to three innings now on his rehab stint in the GCL, 3 2 2 2 0 6 today (the pitch count is what's important as he stretches out but the GCL boxes don't have correct pitch counts).