NY rotation 2019

jon abbey

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So with NY trading for Paxton and the Corbin pursuit coming up short, NY is pursuing definitely one and possibly two more #4 or better SPs to still add, so I thought I'd try to see where they stood in addition to the top 5. First three not in any real order, Severino can be the top 3 AL pitcher he was for a season and a half or the junk he was for most of the second half last year, plus they might move around for L/R balance once we see who else is added:

Paxton
Tanaka
Severino
???
CC

(Sonny Gray) (will be traded but has not been yet)

Luis Cessa (out of options and terrible, I expect him to be moved any day but I did all last winter also)
Domingo German (out of options, maybe the long guy in NY to start the season)
Jonathan Loaisiga (a couple of superb outings for NY last June, shutting down TB and PHI)
Parker Bridwell (out of options, presumably they will try to sneak him through waivers and down to AAA at some point)
Mike King (not on the 40 man yet because he was a 2016 draft pick but has thrown 149 and 161 innings in the minors the last two seasons and ended last year dominant in AAA, a 1.15 ERA in 6 starts, 39 20 5 5 6 31, the rare kid coming up these days who would not really need an innings restriction)
Chance Adams (not sure if he is a starter or a reliever now, hope he figures it out again because he had a couple of dominant seasons before last one)
Domingo Acevedo/Albert Abreu (big arms that are not big league ready but they are both on the 40 man, so maybe in an emergency)

So assuming Gray and Cessa are gone, you can see why it makes sense IMO to add two more quality FA SPs (Happ and Morton would work), that way you can juggle six guys if you need to using the DL and German/Loaisiga/maybe Bridwell/King/Acevedo are options 7-11 instead of 6-10.
 

crow216

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So basically Cashman wants to find a player who is willing to accept 1 year fewer than what everyone else will probably give him. Good luck with that.
 

Big John

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So basically Cashman wants to find a player who is willing to accept 1 year fewer than what everyone else will probably give him. Good luck with that.
Well, he's got a 100-win team if he stands pat, so why overpay?
 

jon abbey

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That works, so it’s:

Paxton
Severino
Happ
Tanaka
CC

And Montgomery maybe back mid-season.
 

jon abbey

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So Paxton and Happ bump Gray and Montgomery from the rotation that began 2018.
 

crow216

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I'm happy about this but still wouldn't mind if Cashman went hard after a Syndergaard or Kluber. Happ was excellent for us.
 

EvilEmpire

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I guess that means the Mets realized they were being played by Cashman and called off the Thor deal.
Impossible to know what is really going on, but I think it more likely that Mets ownership isn't really serious about trading Thor to the Yankees.

That said, I don't think signing Happ prevents anything from happening. Maybe lessens the pressure on Cashman a bit.
 

DanoooME

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How much is too much for Happ? I mean, the three years makes sense. MLBTR says $48M. My guess, based on MLBTR and actual results, is $54M. Is that too much for him? It sounds like a lot.
 

jon abbey

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He was really good down the stretch for NY and has AL East experience, but I haven't seen any rumors on money yet.
 

crow216

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How much is too much for Happ? I mean, the three years makes sense. MLBTR says $48M. My guess, based on MLBTR and actual results, is $54M. Is that too much for him? It sounds like a lot.
I doubt it's really an AAV question here, more about the length. I don't think Cash will really care about giving $18 per vs $16 per for example
 
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I'm a bit surprised that the Yanks didn't make a run at Morton. This appears to be a nice signing by the Rays: Morton will earn $30MM over the two-year contract and the deal also contains an option for the 2021 season that could be worth as much as $15MM if Morton remains healthy, though could also be as low as $1MM should Morton suffer a significant injury over the course of the initial two years.

 

jon abbey

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Morton had injury issues last year and didn’t do much after mid-August. HOU only has two locks for the rotation currently and they know more about him than anyone, so for them to not top 2/30 says something.
 

Big John

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The extra year with Happ doesn't bother me. He's not a power pitcher whose stuff will degrade over time, although he did have trouble with his elbow in 2017.
 

crow216

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Morton had injury issues last year and didn’t do much after mid-August. HOU only has two locks for the rotation currently and they know more about him than anyone, so for them to not top 2/30 says something.
Yea, and it says a lot that Morton's market at his age, with last year's performance, didn't even top 2 years. I wonder if this impacts the deal that Happ gets. I don't think its a precedent setting deal but he is younger and coming off a strong year
 

jon abbey

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No one has even guessed numbers on the Happ deal (I mean the writers), I will guess 2/36 and maybe 20 more if the third year vests. Otherwise NY really got a good deal here, although TEX presumably needed to pay a premium for Lynn because no SP can build value there, even Hamels was awesome on the road and shelled at home before he was traded last year (2.93 ERA on the road, 6.41 at home).
 

RedOctober3829

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No one has even guessed numbers on the Happ deal (I mean the writers), I will guess 2/36 and maybe 20 more if the third year vests. Otherwise NY really got a good deal here, although TEX presumably needed to pay a premium for Lynn because no SP can build value there, even Hamels was awesome on the road and shelled at home before he was traded last year (2.93 on the road, 6.41 at home).
I’m going to guess $2/40 with a $20 million vesting option based on IP.
 

jon abbey

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I think Cashman did as well as he could with the rotation, Kluber and Syndergaard were the two clear upgrades who were maaaybe available, but I don't think Syndergaard really was short of maybe Gleyber and I have always thought CLE would make a deal with the Dodgers or anyone in the NL before they traded Kluber to NY. I am a big Paxton fan and Happ was great down the stretch last year, best NY rotation on paper in a while.
 

jon abbey

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OK, for my own reference and for anyone else interested, I'm going to do a depth chart of the SPs for NY and their top four farm teams. This is the current pecking order as I see it, injured guys are in parentheses and are where I think they'd slot in once healthy, the best prospects are starred:

(Severino)
Tanaka
Paxton
Happ
(Sabathia) (he will be back next time through the rotation)
German
(Montgomery) (aiming for July or August return last I heard)
Loaisiga (he pitches on Tuesday and then will likely be sent down to AAA for CC, he has innings limitations)

AAA: Gio Gonzalez, Nestor Cortes, *Chance Adams, David Hale, Drew Hutchison (*Michael King)
AA: *Trevor Stephan, *Albert Abreu, *Garrett Whitlock, *Nick Nelson, Nick Green
A: *Clarke Schmidt, *Deivi Garcia, Glenn Otto, Rony Garcia, Miguel Yajure
low A: *Roansy Contreras, *Luis Gil, *Luis Medina, *Matt Sauer, Tanner Myatt

Gonzalez has an optout date of 4/20 unless he is called up, and that is looking unlikely for many reasons as of now, but a lot can change in two weeks so we'll see. Also worth noting that Domingo Acevedo (on the 40 man already) has been converted to a multi-inning reliever in AA.
 

jon abbey

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A huge percentage of the NY prospect talent right now is RH SPs, all 12 of those I starred are in NY's top 22 on mlb.com, and there are more than that too (Juan Then, Freicer Perez, Osiel Rodriguez, Nolan Martinez, it's a long list). AAA looks more workmanlike than upside because German and Loaisiga are currently up, every other level is loaded (Charleston low A has one of the best in Contreras, in addition to four guys who have hit 100).
 

Wingack

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It's only been two starts, but German looks like he is pitching himself into a permanent spot in the rotation.

I wonder what they will do if he keeps pitching like the most reliable guy in the rotation by the time Sevy returns.
 

jon abbey

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He has shown flashes in the past but has been very inconsistent, but his overall lousy results last year masked an elite swinging strike percentage (85 MLB innings), 9th in MLB in 2018 (80 innings minimum) behind:

Josh Hader 19.0%
Blake Treinen 18.2%
Max Scherzer 16.2%
Chris Sale 15.8%
Patrick Corbin 15.6%
Carlos Carrasco 15.3%
Blake Snell 15.1%
Jacob deGrom 15.1%
Domingo German 14.9%
Kenta Maeda 14.5%
Justin Verlander 14.5%

Then Paxton, Tanaka, Cole, Syndergaard fill out the top 15, impressive company.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=80&type=5&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d
 

terrynever

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Sweeney Murti tweet:

Luis Severino “didn’t feel great” the day after his latest flat ground long toss according to Aaron Boone.


Severino is headed back to NY for another MRI and exam to determine next step.


#itsnotwhatyouwant
 

crow216

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So, what’s the backup plan if we do lose him for the year? Does Cashman go for the top starter at the deadline?
 

jon abbey

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If German keeps pitching like he has, Tanaka, Paxton, Happ, German and CC seems pretty solid on paper, Loaisiga behind them, Montgomery back in maybe August and Gio Gonzalez still lurking for now.
 

jon abbey

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Gio Gonzalez with his second AAA start tonight, he was hammered in his first. He should get two more before his 4/20 optout.
 

jon abbey

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Severino shut down for six weeks with a strained lat, unrelated to the original soreness.
 

jon abbey

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A week away from the Gio decision, it's going to be a tough call for NY. It's worth noting that the AAAA guys filling the Scranton rotation currently are all pitching very well, Drew Hutchison today (6 2 0 0 3 8) and Nestor Cortes and David Hale also.
 

jon abbey

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Gio with another start before NY has to make a decision, but it's hard to see a way it makes sense for both sides. Maybe Cashman can give him a couple mil to push the deadline back a month.
 

jon abbey

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Gio Gonzalez left Scott Boras today and went to CAA, that deal he signed with NY maybe made sense in an abstract way but in reality, it was always going to be a big impediment to them actually promoting him short of emergency. His optout date remains tomorrow for now.
 

jon abbey

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More info:

"According to a source, if Gio Gonzalez isn’t added to the Yankees’ roster by Saturday and he requests his release, the Yankees will have 48 hours to either add him to the roster or grant him his release."
 

jon abbey

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Scranton rained out so I think Gio will not pitch again before exercising his opt-out tomorrow (according to Twitter reports), then NY will have 48 hours to decide on him.
 

jon abbey

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Gio is officially a free agent again, NY chose not to add him to the MLB roster after he opted out. I'm curious how his new deal will compare to the one he signed with NY, it seems like there is more interest in his services now (MIL, NYM, maybe BOS but they will likely be outbid).