NY rotation 2019

jon abbey

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Loaisiga is back and starting game 2 of a doubleheader tonight for Trenton, and Mike King's rehab has also been moved to Trenton.
 

jon abbey

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Cashman announces no inning limits on German this year, he missed three weeks earlier and he is 27 (I am adding the second part but generally teams don’t worry about innings jumps for guys over 25-26).
 

terrynever

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Cashman announces no inning limits on German this year, he missed three weeks earlier and he is 27 (I am adding the second part but generally teams don’t worry about innings jumps for guys over 25-26).
That’s the right call. I love how German is usually efficient with his pitch counts.
 

jon abbey

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I haven't done an organizational rotation update since early May (below for reference) and NY has had a bunch of big prospect promotions recently, so I will do it again, for my own reference as much as anyone else's, heh. As before, guys in parentheses are injured and placed where I think they slot in if healthy.

Tanaka
German
Paxton
(Severino) (once he gets up to 4-5 minnings)
Happ
Sabathia

Green/Cortes Jr. pairing

AAA: Adonis Rosa, *Michael King, *Nick Nelson, Brian Keller, Brody Koerner ( *Deivi Garcia and Chance Adams moved to the bullpen today for the remainder of the season, Rosa is first just because he is on the 40 man already).
AA: *Clarke Schmidt, *Albert Abreu, Rony Garcia, Shawn Semple, Nick Green (*Trevor Stephan, Garrett Whitlock)
A: *Luis Medina, *Miguel Yajure, Frank German, Alexander Vizcaino, Janson Junk, Glenn Otto (*Luis Gil)
low A: *Roansy Contreras, Jio Orozco, Harold Cortijo, Jhony Brito, Josh Maciejewski, Yoendrys Gomez (*Matt Sauer)

A lot of exciting years from top guys on this list making big jumps forward, mostly very young still: Deivi (20), Gil (21), Medina (20), Schmidt (23), Roansy (19), Yajure (21). Unfortunately all but Schmidt/Roansy are rule 5 eligible and NY will need to protect or move the other four there or risk losing them, easy to stash a high-ceiling arm as the last guy in your bullpen in a non-contending season. Yajure is the lowest rated guy there but he has dominated high A this year at 21, a 2.26 ERA in 127 innings and he is touching 97 now reportedly.

OK, I haven't updated this in almost a month and there has been a bunch of news, so let me give it another shot. As before, guys in parentheses are injured and placed where I think they slot in if healthy. German is 4th here just because he has an option, but he has clearly been NY's best pitcher so far this season.

(Severino) (out until the ASB)
Tanaka
(Paxton) (got a cortisone shot, Cashman expects him out three weeks at the most)
Happ
Sabathia
German
(Montgomery) (aiming for July or August return last I heard)
Loaisiga (back in next time around for Paxton)

AAA: Nestor Cortes, *Chance Adams, David Hale, Drew Hutchison (*Michael King)
AA: *Deivi Garcia, *Albert Abreu, Rony Garcia, Nick Green (*Trevor Stephan, *Garrett Whitlock, *Nick Nelson)
A: *Clarke Schmidt, Frank German, Glenn Otto, Miguel Yajure, Jio Orozco, Shawn Semple
low A: *Roansy Contreras, *Luis Gil, *Luis Medina, Jio Orozco, Daniel Bies (Tanner Myatt)

David Hale or Nestor Cortes is NY's 6th guy right now, I believe, unless they tried to stretch out Cessa. Chad Green threw three innings/41 pitches last outing in AAA, but I think the ship has sailed on him being a SP.
 

crow216

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I feel good about the top 4 there and pretty bad about Happ/Sabathia.

All of Tanaka, Paxton, Severino, and German should be better than coin flip odds to throw a really good game.
 

TheDivision

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Happ’s demeanor last night was too negative on the mound for more than an inning. I’m not sure what his beef was, but I think it’s never a good thing to show frustration openly for the opponent to see. I don't think he's trustworthy. CC gets shelled but he's completely professional about it.
 

jon abbey

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Mike King with his strongest start yet as he builds back up, 6.2 4 2 2 3 11 against Pawtucket. Also NY really only needs SPs to go 3-4 innings in the postseason if all of their relief options are healthy, so worth noting that he was perfect the first time through the order with 7 Ks. One more like that and he should jump Rosa as the next man up even though he is not yet on the 40 man, he would have been in the mix (or close behind) with German and Loaisiga for #6 guy (which has been at least #5 all season with Severino out) during spring training if he had stayed healthy.

 

Marciano490

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Mike King with his strongest start yet as he builds back up, 6.2 4 2 2 3 11 against Pawtucket. Also NY really only needs SPs to go 3-4 innings in the postseason if all of their relief options are healthy, so worth noting that he was perfect the first time through the order with 7 Ks. One more like that and he should jump Rosa as the next man up even though he is not yet on the 40 man, he would have been in the mix (or close behind) with German and Loaisiga for #6 guy (which has been at least #5 all season with Severino out) during spring training if he had stayed healthy.

What do you see as King’s upside? Like a #3 starter, or does he have ace potential?
 

jon abbey

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What do you see as King’s upside? Like a #3 starter, or does he have ace potential?
Just based on stuff, I think he is more of a 3-5 starter from what I know. NY got him from MIA after the 2017 season as part of the Caleb Smith deal when they were clearing 40 man space. King wasn't especially highly regarded at that point, but he blew up in 2018, jumping three levels and dominating all of them. If he can get back to where he was this time last year, he can make a run at a NY rotation spot, but even then the cards will be stacked against him since he will have options and most of their other SP candidates will not.

But this is how excited people who saw him last season were about him, two of NY's AAA beat writers voted him NY's #2 prospect coming into the season (Deivi was #5 on their list):

 

terrynever

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King is the classic late developer. Rhode Island-bred. I like the freshness of this story written by his hometown newspaper after King was traded to the Yankees.

 

jon abbey

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Miguel Yajure promoted to AA today, he is not as highly touted as a bunch of others but seems to have had a breakthrough season this year in Tampa. He just turned 21 in May and has been amazing all year, a 2.26 ERA in 127 innings, and has gained velocity also (now topping at 97). He will need to be protected or dealt after the season, so he gets a few weeks in AA to see how he looks there first.
 

jon abbey

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With a day off between games and inspired by the BA low A prospect list having 4 of these guys in their league top 15, I will do a quick run at an organizational rotation update. This will include everyone but CC (the only FA, I think) and is a guess as to where the organization would be going into next March if they did not add or move anyone before then. This is also focusing more on the prospects than the inevitable org filler guys, but there are a lot of prospects to fit in.

Paxton
Severino
Tanaka
German (once his suspension ends, presumably)
Happ
Montgomery

AAA: *Michael King, *Deivi Garcia, *Nick Nelson, *Albert Abreu, Adonis Rosa (guessing they move Loaisiga to the bullpen, but he would be here if not)
AA: *Clarke Schmidt, *Trevor Stephan, *Miguel Yajure, Rony Garcia, Shawn Semple, Nick Green (*Garrett Whitlock)
A: *Roansy Contreras, *Luis Medina, *Luis Gil, *Alexander Vizcaino, *Frank German, Janson Junk, Glenn Otto
low A: *Yoendrys Gomez, Jio Orozco, Harold Cortijo, Jhony Brito, *TJ Sikkema, Josh Maciejewski (*Matt Sauer)

I don't know how exact that is, and that is focused more on the higher ceiling guys than the others but that is a lot of starred talent. Schmidt could push his way higher pretty quickly, but he only had five starts in AA this year. He got hit in the first one but then the last four he had the ridiculous combined line of 24.1 9 1 1 3 27. Also he only had 100 innings last year and is 23, so they might start him off slowly. That also might be too aggressive for Abreu but he spent the whole year in AA this year and it will be his third year on the 40 man so they need to see what they have already.

But yeah, 15 prospect SPs for their top four farm teams (maybe 14 if Sikkema stays in short season or becomes a reliever, but he was drafted as a 'fast mover'), all are in NY's top 30 list on mlb.com with profiles if you are curious about any.


Also still hoping Freicer Perez reappears at some point, as the descriptions of him were tantalizing (a 6'8" guy who could hit 100 and had good offspeed stuff) but he had injury issues and I don't see any recent updates on a quick search. He was one of NY's top few pitching prospects coming into 2018, he is still just 23.

I haven't done an organizational rotation update since early May (below for reference) and NY has had a bunch of big prospect promotions recently, so I will do it again, for my own reference as much as anyone else's, heh. As before, guys in parentheses are injured and placed where I think they slot in if healthy.

Tanaka
German
Paxton
(Severino) (once he gets up to 4-5 minnings)
Happ
Sabathia

Green/Cortes Jr. pairing

AAA: Adonis Rosa, *Michael King, *Nick Nelson, Brian Keller, Brody Koerner ( *Deivi Garcia and Chance Adams moved to the bullpen today for the remainder of the season, Rosa is first just because he is on the 40 man already).
AA: *Clarke Schmidt, *Albert Abreu, Rony Garcia, Shawn Semple, Nick Green (*Trevor Stephan, Garrett Whitlock)
A: *Luis Medina, *Miguel Yajure, Frank German, Alexander Vizcaino, Janson Junk, Glenn Otto (*Luis Gil)
low A: *Roansy Contreras, Jio Orozco, Harold Cortijo, Jhony Brito, Josh Maciejewski, Yoendrys Gomez (*Matt Sauer)

A lot of exciting years from top guys on this list making big jumps forward, mostly very young still: Deivi (20), Gil (21), Medina (20), Schmidt (23), Roansy (19), Yajure (21). Unfortunately all but Schmidt/Roansy are rule 5 eligible and NY will need to protect or move the other four there or risk losing them, easy to stash a high-ceiling arm as the last guy in your bullpen in a non-contending season. Yajure is the lowest rated guy there but he has dominated high A this year at 21, a 2.26 ERA in 127 innings and he is touching 97 now reportedly.
 
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jon abbey

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Bump after the 40 man protection and you can see that NY protected all seven eligible guys I starred above (Abreu previously, King at the end of the season and the other five today) and where I am guessing they will start the season. You can see that NY has a lot of SP options already under contract, with all four starred guys in AAA on the 40 man now, and the even more exciting wave of Schmidt/Gil/Medina behind them.

This is why if NY signs Cole, they will likely move Happ to a team like the Angels that would jump at him. NY has what looks like very good SP depth but Cole pushing everyone else back one would make it incredible.