NY in 2015: Looking Ahead

[jon abbey]

OK, let me take a shot at where NY will stand:
 
C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: Refsnyder?
SS: Drew? 
3B: wishful thinking=Headley, reality=A-Rod
OF: Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran
DH: ???
 
SP: I will assume that Tanaka and Nova will miss 2015. So Pineda, Phelps, McCarthy (who is a FA), Greene and ???. I have to think NY will go in big for Lester or Scherzer, plus they will need some additional depth here anyway.
RP: Warren (maybe back to the rotation?), Whitley, Jose Ramirez?, Thornton, Kelley, Betances. Robertson is a FA. 
 
Hrm. 

 

[jon abbey]

https://twitter.com/LoHudYankees/status/494946299142479872

 

[benhogan]

At this point, how much guaranteed salary are they committed to for next season?

 

[jon abbey]

At this point, how much guaranteed salary are they committed to for next season?

 
Maybe around $172M for 11 guys? I just added in the $11M for Prado to this:
 
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html
 
$169M in 2016 already is ridiculous, this team is a mess. 

 

[jon abbey]

Oh, I forgot Prado above, I guess he blocks Refsnyder.
 
ARGH ARGH ARGH ARGH

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

Oh, I forgot Prado above, I guess he blocks Refsnyder.
 
ARGH ARGH ARGH ARGH

he's in RF (or Util), Beltran at DH?

 

[jon abbey]

he's in RF (or Util), Beltran at DH?

 
I think it's more likely they try to keep Headley, put A-Rod at DH, Prado at 2B, Beltran in RF and Refsnyder in AAA. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

I looked right past this thread and posted this in the Prado thread instead.
 

 
            
 


I don't know.  The rest of this season is a mess, but I can see what they might be doing for next year and beyond:
 
[SIZE=medium]C:  McCann (2015-2018, 2019 w/player option)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]1B:  Teixeira (2015-2016)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]2B: Prado (2014-2016)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]SS:  Drew (?)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]3B: Headley (?)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]LF:  Gardner (2015-2018, 2019 w/club option)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]CF:  Ellsbury (2015-2020)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]RF:  Beltran (2015-2016)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]DH:  ARod (2015-2017)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]Utility IF:  Ryan (2015, 2016 w/option)[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]- I think Prado will be the starting 2B next year[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]- They'll evaluate Drew to see if he is worth going after for SS[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]- They'll try to re-sign Headley for 3B [/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]- ARod will serve as primary DH (if he sticks around)[/SIZE]
[SIZE=medium]- They'll hope that Beltran's elbow/shoulder problems get fixed and he'll be healthy enough to play RF most of the time[/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=medium]Defense might be pretty good.  Some potential for offense too.   Looks like the outline of a plan at least.  [/SIZE]

 
 
So yeah, I agree with Jon, with the caveat that I think Prado can be pretty good.
 
I don't even have the energy to speculate on starting pitching other than to say they'll probably make a big offer on Lester, just because. 

 

[jon abbey]

And now that he's been moved, he won't cost a first round pick to sign. 

 

[jon abbey]

And that's still a pretty old team in an era of youth. Is there anyone on the right side of 30 in that lineup? There's a good chance everyone in that lineup has already seen their best days, except maybe Brett Gardner, who is turning into Mike Trout.

 

[EvilEmpire]

And that's still a pretty old team in an era of youth. Is there anyone on the right side of 30 in that lineup?

 
No, but by Yankee standards this is what passes for a young lineup:
 
Prado is 30
Headley is 30
Gardner is 30
Ellsbury is 30
McCann is 30
Drew is 31
Ryan is 32
Teixeira is 34
Beltran is 37
ARod is 39
 
I think Cashman has identified 30-year-olds as the new market inefficiency

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Sabathia is 34, and will also occupy one of JA's open SP slots.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

I think they will go after Lester and Scherzer hard. And maybe try and trade the farm for Tulo.

 

[Brianish]

I think they will go after Lester and Scherzer hard. And maybe try and trade the farm for Tulo.

 
They can try as hard as they like; it ain't happening. 

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

 
They can try as hard as they like; it ain't happening. 

 
Yeah, I suppose Betances as a centerpiece doesn't work. A guy can dream, though.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

So if they sign Lester or Scherzer for say 25 mil, they will have 12 non-minimum or non-arb guys under contract for almost 200 million. All of them 30+.

 

[nattysez]

http://www.northjersey.com/sports/klapisch-in-need-of-an-ace-yankees-sure-to-chase-after-lester-1.1061199
 
 

But there’s little doubt the Yankees will need one and perhaps two starters in 2015, assuming Hiroki Kuroda, who’s already fading, decides to retire. There’s no reason to believe CC Sabathia will be back, either. One team source says the big lefty “just doesn’t have enough cartilage” in his right knee, a chronic condition that won’t be dramatically impacted by his recent minor surgery.
Masahiro Tanaka? We’ll learn soon if he’s having Tommy John surgery, which is likely. Ivan Nova? He’s out until the second half of 2015. And Michael Pineda, the human enigma, may never anchor the rotation the way the Yankees once hoped.
So, what choice do the Yankees have except to pursue the tough, experienced and mature Lester? He was kind to the Red Sox on the way out the door, saying he’d be open to returning to Boston this winter. Lester may actually mean that today, but he’s entitled to know why the Sox never made a serious effort to sign him all year.
 
 

 
Posting this just to confirm Jon's opening post -- Klapish is pessimistic about Kuroda, Nova, Sabathia and Tanaka pitching next year. 

 

[jon abbey]

A couple more internal pitching candidates: Cashman turned down Bryan Mitchell for Dustin Ackley at the trading deadline because he is hoping Mitchell can contribute in the rotation next year.
 
And Jacob Lindgren, a second round pick this past year who was a collegiate reliever at Mississippi St and expected to climb the ranks quickly, has been awesome in A ball so far, a combined 7.1 3 1 0 4 17 so far including 2 separate 4 Ks in one inning outings.  He is a lefty also. 

 

[NDBoston]

A couple more internal pitching candidates: Cashman turned down Bryan Mitchell for Dustin Ackley at the trading deadline because he is hoping Mitchell can contribute in the rotation next year.
 
And Jacob Lindgren, a second round pick this past year who was a collegiate reliever at Mississippi St and expected to climb the ranks quickly, has been awesome in A ball so far, a combined 7.1 3 1 0 4 17 so far including 2 separate 4 Ks in one inning outings.  He is a lefty also. 

 
So Lindgren comes in for 2017? 

 

[jon abbey]

No, he's already jumped two levels very quickly and may be up to AA very soon. It was said right after the draft that they expect him to fly through the system, and his performance so far has shown why. From June:
 
"I am not at all joking when I say Lindgren might be better than Matt Thornton right now. Unless the Yankees try him in the rotation — always a possibility, but I think it’s unlikely — Lindgren should fly through the system and become a big league bullpen option very soon. There’s a chance he can pitch in the show later this season, a la Paco Rodriguez for the Dodgers two years ago. It’s really a question of whether the Yankees will let him more than anything."
 
http://riveraveblues.com/2014/06/yankees-select-lhp-jacon-lindgren-with-top-pick-in-2014-draft-104524/

 

[BigMike]

Yeah, probably 50/50 Lindgren opens the season in NY,  and barring injury he'll be there by June.  He is so far above the level he is at right now it is just silly

 

[jon abbey]

It's looking like guys like Robertson and Headley and McCarthy are going to eat up salary quickly assuming they keep them all, just so many holes to fill. NY could end up at $250M with Lester or Scherzer.
 
Also worth noting along these lines is that with no appreciable contracts expiring after 2015 currently, they are almost certainly going to be locked into a massive amount of money for the 2016 season before a pitch is thrown in 2015. 
 
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html

 

[Night of the Keyboard]

It's looking like guys like Robertson and Headley and McCarthy are going to eat up salary quickly assuming they keep them all, just so many holes to fill. NY could end up at $250M with Lester or Scherzer.
 
Also worth noting along these lines is that with no appreciable contracts expiring after 2015 currently, they are almost certainly going to be locked into a massive amount of money for the 2016 season before a pitch is thrown in 2015. 
 
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html

Don't forget that A-Rod, who has 654, will receive a $6M bonus for for passing Willie Mays' career home run total of 660.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

Can you imagine the Sterling call of that HR?

 

[Rough Carrigan]

Can you imagine the Sterling call of that HR?

If I go to hell, as I've been told I will many times I will, I fully expect to hear a lot of John Sterling.
 
But, more seriously, isn't it kind of amazing that the overwhelming narrative of the 2014 Red Sox is that they had a disastrous season.  It would be hard to pick out the most common narrative about the 2014 yankees but it might be something about contending in the captain's last season.  But they're only about 5-6 games ahead of the Red Sox. 

 

[jon abbey]

For Terry and others, finally RAB gets into the specifics of the 40 man roster crunch this winter, this is the main reason we never saw Refsnyder or Lindgren this season:

"As of this morning, the Yankees have 43 players on the 40-man roster when you include Alex Rodriguez (suspended) and both CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova (60-day DL). I count eight players who will come off the 40-man as free agents this winter (Chris Capuano, Hiroki Kuroda, Brandon McCarthy, David Robertson, Stephen Drew, Chase Headley, Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki) and another five who can be easily cut loose (Matt Daley, David Huff, Josh Outman, Esmil Rogers, Zelous Wheeler), giving the team ten open spots heading into the winter. Tyler Austin is a lock to be added to avoid Rule 5 Draft exposure while others like Branden Pinder, Nick Goody, Mark Montgomery, Mason Williams, and Danny Burawa are on the fence. I’d bet on at least three of those guys being protected, maybe even four. (Just don’t ask me which three or four.) Anyway, add those guys and those ten open spots are really five or six open spots. Calling up Lindgren and/or Rob Refsnyder for a month before they’re Rule 5 eligible would even further limit roster flexibility. Guys like Jose Campos, Slade Heathcott, Chase Whitley, Preston Claiborne, and Austin Romine could wind up getting the axe this winter just so the team can re-sign or replace Robertson, McCarthy, et al as it is. I’m not quite sure where this is heading, but the point is the Yankees are facing a real 40-man crunch this winter and I have a hard time seeing how it will improve without the unexpected unloading of a big money contract or three."

 

[jon abbey]

But, more seriously, isn't it kind of amazing that the overwhelming narrative of the 2014 Red Sox is that they had a disastrous season.  It would be hard to pick out the most common narrative about the 2014 yankees but it might be something about contending in the captain's last season.  But they're only about 5-6 games ahead of the Red Sox. 

 
Answering this two weeks later and it's up to an 11 game separation currently, but BOS was defending WS champions with a ton of promising youth and NY was flailing to maintain mediocrity and not drop to the 70 win range.  BOS was probably projected to finish around 15 games ahead of NY. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

For Terry and others, finally RAB gets into the specifics of the 40 man roster crunch this winter, this is the main reason we never saw Refsnyder or Lindgren this season:

Thanks for posting this jon. It explains a lot. I need to check RAB more regularly.

 

[jon abbey]

OK, bumping this, as I have some overarching thoughts. Currently under contract:
 
C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: (Refsnyder)
SS: Ryan
3B: Prado
OF: Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran
DH: A-Rod
 
SP: Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, Greene, Phelps, Warren (?)
RP: Warren (?), Whitley, Jose Ramirez?, Lindgren?, Kelley, Betances. 
 
============================================
 
So attacking this logically (which may have no overlap with actual NY thinking), I wouldn't make another massive investment in a SP like Lester/Scherzer/Shields. I would try to keep all of the following:
 
Headley (this blocks Refsnyder if everyone is healthy, but everyone is never healthy)
McCarthy (this lets them bump Phelps to long guy and keep Warren in the pen)
Drew (although based on this year, he's a minimal upgrade on Ryan, but hopefully he'll be cheap at least)
 
And I'd go after Andrew Miller and try to keep Robertson. If the back of the pen was those two and Betances, that gives Girardi a ridiculous amount of options. If they could do all of that, they would have this team:

C: McCann, Cervelli/Murphy
1B: Teixeira
2B: Prado (Refsnyder in AAA)
SS: Drew, Ryan
3B: Headley
OF: Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran
DH: A-Rod
 
That leaves two spots for another OF and a backup 1B.
 
SP: Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, McCarthy, Greene
RP: Phelps, Warren, Lindgren, Kelley, Miller, Betances, Robertson. 

 

[jon abbey]

I was actually against committing big money to Robertson, but given NY's roster and possibilities, I think I am back on the side of trying to lock him up as long as it's not too ridiculous. 

 

[soxhop411]

I was actually against committing big money to Robertson, but given NY's roster and possibilities, I think I am back on the side of trying to lock him up as long as it's not too ridiculous. 

Would NYY QO him given that we now know the QO price?
 
Matthew Pouliot ‏@matthewpouliot  14m14 minutes ago
 
Robertson would be crazy to turn down a QO, and if he accepts it, that's $15.3 million for him and an extra $7.65 million in luxury tax.
 
 

Matthew Pouliot ‏@matthewpouliot  20m20 minutes ago
Some seem to think Robertson will get a QO from Yankees. It's possible, but I'm skeptical. He'd cost them $23 million in that scenario.

 

[jon abbey]

He will definitely get a QO IMO if they don't sign him long-term before then. Any impact players that NY can get on a one year deal will hugely help their flexibility next offseason, as they're already committed to a massive amount of money in 2016 as well as 2015. 
 
Edit: I should amend that. The Yankees of yore wouldn't have worried about the money and would have kept him because he'll help them on the field this year. This version, not so sure. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

So attacking this logically (which may have no overlap with actual NY thinking), I wouldn't make another massive investment in a SP like Lester/Scherzer/Shields. I would try to keep all of the following:
 
Headley (this blocks Refsnyder if everyone is healthy, but everyone is never healthy)
McCarthy (this lets them bump Phelps to long guy and keep Warren in the pen)
Drew (although based on this year, he's a minimal upgrade on Ryan, but hopefully he'll be cheap at least)
 
And I'd go after Andrew Miller and try to keep Robertson. If the back of the pen was those two and Betances, that gives Girardi a ridiculous amount of options. If they could do all of that, they would have this team:

C: McCann, Cervelli/Murphy
1B: Teixeira
2B: Prado (Refsnyder in AAA)
SS: Drew, Ryan
3B: Headley
OF: Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran
DH: A-Rod
 
That leaves two spots for another OF and a backup 1B.
 
SP: Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, McCarthy, Greene
RP: Phelps, Warren, Lindgren, Kelley, Miller, Betances, Robertson.

I agree with all of this but for the Miller part. He's great, but I think the bidding war for him may be significant, and I'd hate for the Yankees to have to commit too many years on him to win it.

 

[jon abbey]

Fair enough, but keep in mind all you're doing then is basically bringing back this year's team, although some of those guys didn't get there until midseason. We all saw how well that worked. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

Fair enough, but keep in mind all you're doing then is basically bringing back this year's team, although some of those guys didn't get there until midseason. We all saw how well that worked.

Absolutely.

If this team is going to have any success next year, it will be because the offense stays healthy and produces better than it did this season. No way around it. I don't think there is a magic bullet out there in FA that changes that. In the absence of reasonable offensive upgrades, I'll take solid defense.

We'll see what happens with the bullpen, but even without Miller, I think they have the potential to be pretty good. That assumes Robertson comes back though.

 

[ItOnceWasMyLife]

 
Answering this two weeks later and it's up to an 11 game separation currently, but BOS was defending WS champions with a ton of promising youth and NY was flailing to maintain mediocrity and not drop to the 70 win range.  BOS was probably projected to finish around 15 games ahead of NY. 

I have to admit, the fact NY finished with a winning record this year is pretty impressive.  The real shame of the 2014 Sox is that if they had been the 2013-ish Sox, the NY'ers would have finished under .500.
 
From a Sox fan point of view, I'm just waiting to see which f-idiot team takes on a long-past prime NYY, for some real talent that wasn't born in the 50's.  (Yes, that's a police reference)

 

[jon abbey]

I forgot to credit it earlier, but Joel Sherman made the case for NY to go after Miller in greater detail in the Post today:

http://nypost.com/2014/10/06/mets-yankees-vie-for-hurler-andrew-miller/

 

[nattysez]

What is the word on Tanaka?  Do they think the rest and rehab thing has worked?  
 
I just don't see how the MFY go into the season with this rotation:  Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, McCarthy, Greene
 
That's four entirely unpredictable arms (if you assume Tanaka remains at heightened risk for injury) and Greene.  I think they've got to get one of Shields/Lester/Scherzer.  

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

What is the word on Tanaka?  Do they think the rest and rehab thing has worked?  
 
I just don't see how the MFY go into the season with this rotation:  Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, McCarthy, Greene
 
That's four entirely unpredictable arms (if you assume Tanaka remains at heightened risk for injury) and Greene.  I think they've got to get one of Shields/Lester/Scherzer.  

 
Yeah, I agree. They definitely need to sign at least one of them and maybe two. I"d prefer Scherzer and Lester, but man, they are probably going to get huge deals.

 

[jon abbey]

They already are paying 2 SPs $22M+ long-term, we'll see if they will really want to add a third one of those deals. Their payroll is already going to be massive in my scenario (in the $240M range?), one or two of the stud SPs would push that even further. 

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

They already are paying 2 SPs $22M+ long-term, we'll see if they will really want to add a third one of those deals. Their payroll is already going to be massive in my scenario (in the $240M range?), one or two of the stud SPs would push that even further. 

 
True. And I guess with a lot of random teams - such as the Mariners - starting to see money from their TV deals roll in, the Yankees might not be able to afford these types of free agents.
 
I'm really curious to see how they handle the offseason. I have no idea what to expect.

 

[Wingack]

I hope they sit on their hands and if they spend at all, they spend on young international free agents. They are just going to have to ride out these bad contracts to Tex, ARod and CC. They won't be truly competitive until after that.

 

[nattysez]

I hope they sit on their hands and if they spend at all, they spend on young international free agents. They are just going to have to ride out these bad contracts to Tex, ARod and CC. They won't be truly competitive until after that.

 
Alternatively, you could argue that none of the teams in the division are all that awe-inspiring, the A's are likely going to be on a downward swing, as are the Royals, so maybe the MFY can compete for at least the second wild-card as presently constituted.  And that may be enough to keep behinds in the seats and eyes on YES.

 

[jon abbey]

And you could also argue that big money free agents have little correlation to winning in the current incarnation of the game. Those Lester and Scherzer and Shields deals are likely to look pretty ugly by the end, hopefully NY has learned their lesson there (not that I would be too upset if they actually got Lester, just that I wouldn't go after him hard if it was my decision). 

 

[Brickowski]

Why are folks assuming that Nova will miss all of 2015?  Recovery from Tommy John surgery usually takes about a year.  Has he experienced some setbacks that I don't know about?
 
The Yankees' problem last year was painfully obvious: they couldn't score.  IMHO their  first priority during this offseason is to find a big run-producing bat for the middle of the lineup.  They may be unsuccessful, but everything else is nibbling around the edges.

 

[jon abbey]

At what position? The problem is they have pricy players locked in at most positions already. Maybe they can trade for Robinson Cano...

 

[glennhoffmania]

At what position? The problem is they have pricy players locked in at most positions already. Maybe they can trade for Robinson Cano...

 
Don't get me started.
 
I disagree with Brick.  The point is to improve the run differential.  NY was basically in the middle of the pack in terms of run prevention this year.  There's room for improvement and getting one of the top FA starters would certainly help.
 
I'd think that they'll score more runs next year since whoever plays 2B, 3B and SS should be an offensive upgrade.
 
This year their run differential was -31.  Unless one believes that they can continue to significantly outperform their pythag, they need a decent amount of improvement regardless of which side of the ball it comes from.  So I don't see why the focus needs to be on the offense as opposed to the differential in general.

 

[Brickowski]

Well, they lost Nova, Tanaka, Pineda and Sabbathia for big chunks of last year.  Maybe that had something to do with their mediocre run prevention.
And frankly, guys like Stephen Drew are not going to be an offensive upgrade over Jeter.
 
Teixeira has become a good field no hit first baseman with occasional power.  Beltran is incredibly fragile at this stage of his career.  As for McCann, just put on the shift and he;'s basically helpless.  I was hoping that Ellsbury would show more than occasional power, but he's a singles hitter.

 

[DanoooME]

Why are folks assuming that Nova will miss all of 2015?  Recovery from Tommy John surgery usually takes about a year.  Has he experienced some setbacks that I don't know about?
 

 
That's generally true, but it's different from player to player, plus you also have to consider when they get back, they usually have a period of sub-par command which we'll mean he'll be less effective when he does come back.

 

[jon abbey]

 Yeah, you certainly can't count on him to contribute in 2015.