NY in 2015: Looking Ahead

Nov 30, 2006
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Fair enough. I shouldn't have said "every damn year". I should have said "that's how they've tended to build their team." 
 
Well, last year the word everywhere was the NYY's were hell bent to get under cap. We all know what they actually ended up doing. I'll believe it when I see it.
 
And why would they give up multiple prospects for Hamels just when their farm system is up-ticking a bit, when they can just "buy" Lester? There are question marks with
Tanaka, Pineda, CC, and Nova. Also Kukoda and McCarthy, should they re-ink them. They could use Lester.
 

jon abbey

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Everyone could use Lester, but unless they're planning to take the payroll to $300M next offseason, he's not a great fit. They need to rebuild, not add even more lengthy expensive contracts, and that seems to be their current plan (although as you noted, that doesn't definitely mean they'll stick to that plan given their track record). 
 
I also agree that trading for Hamels is even less likely than signing Lester or Scherzer, NY needs to hold onto any potential impact prospects that they have. 
 
Nov 30, 2006
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"Everyone could use Lester, but unless they're planning to take the payroll to $300M next offseason, he's not a great fit."
 
BBref has their estimated payroll at ~258, so Lester would get them up to around 283. Who's being hyperbolic now? ;-)
 
Conventional wisdom has it that the NYY's need a solid lefty starter to be successful, given the porch in right. I happen to agree with this CW. Pitchers can always surprise you, and especially lefties,
but this Sox fan is hopeful that the Yanks are counting on CC alone to be that guy going into 2015. 
 

jon abbey

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They are nowhere near a $258M payroll right now (Cot's has them around $169M before arb), and I am talking about next offseason, not this one, in between the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Again, the issue is that they have zero money coming off their cap after next year so any multi-year deals put them in an even less flexible position going into 2016.
 
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html
 
Anyway, please read the thread, it's only three pages and most of this has been covered before. 
 

jon abbey

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The issue is that NY is way more than a Lester away from genuinely competing, their lineup is still almost certainly a disaster even if they add Headley and a better SS. McCann, Tex, Prado, Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran, A-Rod, this does not strike fear in the hearts of pitchers and isn't anything special on D either. 
 
Nov 30, 2006
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Their % of payroll to revenue isn't particularly high. They don't really have an excuse to punt a year.
 
If I were a NYY fan, I'd want them to go after Lester, re-sign Robertson and McCarthy, find another decent bat or two by getting creative. Try to win 90 games with a 110 ERA+ and 95 OPS+,
hope that the lineup you listed bounces back a little. Lester's gonna be a good bet to age OK I think, that back-foot cutter of his is not velocity-based, like Petitte's wasn't.
 
Were I a NYY fan, I wouldn't want to sign Scherzer or Sheilds, but I'd be OK with Lester.  
 
Nov 30, 2006
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NY/NJ
To elaborate a little.
 
Last year they were "in it" until September, and that's with their ace going down. Had they had Tanaka all year, it's not nuts to say they would have made Sep far more interesting. Yes, I know they outplayed their pythag.
 

jon abbey

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They've tried that Band-Aid approach for a whole bunch of years now, and it's why they're in the ugly position they're in. There's a difference between punting a year and trying to keep the payroll under $250M or even higher. 
 
And again, the hidden cost of big deals is the lack of flexibility that comes with them. If Greg Bird keeps up his insane hitting in spring training, he still has no chance to make the roster because of the sunken cost of Tex for another few years. Same with Sabathia, who would have been DFAd last spring training if he was the exact same player on a one year, inexpensive deal. But because of his deal, he'll be in the rotation if he's healthy and almost certainly getting hammered every five days. 
 
Nov 30, 2006
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"But because of his deal, he'll be in the rotation if he's healthy and almost certainly getting hammered every five days"
 
You might be accused of being hyperbolic now. If CC is, say, 1-6 with a 6.50 ERA mid-May, he's getting replaced in the rotation. Yes, his deal gives him a longer leash, but he's only gonna get so many chances to suck before they slot-in another guy, deal or no deal.
And if a guy like Bird has a big Spring, given their struggles to find runs last year, he'll get AB's if he keeps producing. At DH, or whatever.
 
But I get your point.
 

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jon abbey said:
They've tried that Band-Aid approach for a whole bunch of years now, and it's why they're in the ugly position they're in. There's a difference between punting a year and trying to keep the payroll under $250M or even higher. 
 
And again, the hidden cost of big deals is the lack of flexibility that comes with them. If Greg Bird keeps up his insane hitting in spring training, he still has no chance to make the roster because of the sunken cost of Tex for another few years. Same with Sabathia, who would have been DFAd last spring training if he was the exact same player on a one year, inexpensive deal. But because of his deal, he'll be in the rotation if he's healthy and almost certainly getting hammered every five days. 
 
I think the Yankees are fully capable of doing things the hard way for a year. The problem is after year 1 or 2 when ownership starts to think that what the team needs is another two or three $20m+ players. 
 
Part of me believes that the "core 4" really cursed the team. Ownership and maybe Cashman didn't want to put an awful team out for Mariano or Jeter. Time will tell.
 
The one area I disagree with you is the lineup. If healthy, that's a good enough lineup in today's baseball to compete. There are question marks in every lineup. 
 

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crow216 said:
 
Part of me believes that the "core 4" really cursed the team.
 
People forget (understandably) that this team won the AL East, had the best record in the league, and made the ALCS as recently as 2012. If anything 'cursed' the team, it was that in the wake of Detroit's demolition of NY in that series, NY management decided to cut ties with anyone and everyone that they could from that team as soon as possible and replacing them with guys who were just as flawed, if not more. 
 

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Look at the bright side: Teixiera, Sabbathia and Beltran will all be gone in 2017. Arod will be gone in 2018.
 
If they want to stay relevant until then they have two options: (1) take the plunge on a player like Tulowitzsi if they can get him without giving up Betances.  It's a scary move because of the injury history; the money is actually reasonable. (2) Hope that a guy like Bird or Judge can make the jump to supply a little power for the middle of the lineup, rely on your pitching and try to become the next Tampa Bay.  
 

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It really seems like Boras bullshit to me, I am very sure that he and Scherzer wish they took the 6/144 deal from DET last spring training. The writer linked above (who is not even the primary guy covering NY's AA Trenton team, I never heard of him before today) just tweeted a bunch more about the alleged possible offer:

https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer74
 

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He says he checked with two sources. One source says an offer was made this morning. The second says the Yakees were preparing an offer Wendesday but have nothing new to report beyond that.
 

jon abbey

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Like I said, Boras bullshit*:
 
https://twitter.com/JackCurryYES/status/538818670609580032
 
*Although it's worth noting Curry's wording here, maybe they offered him a longer or shorter deal?
 

jon abbey

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Rumors on Twitter of them being close on a 7/185 deal, nothing serious enough to link. 
 

jon abbey

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No one worth crediting or paying attention to, hence my phrasing and non-linking. From the writer above:
 
https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer74/status/538784070688583682
 

jon abbey

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Olney this AM on Scherzer, bold print is mine as more confirmation that the above rumor wasn't real:

"some club evaluators fully expect Scherzer’s contract talks to carry over for weeks, as agent Scott Boras works to make a big deal happen -- something significantly more than the six-year, $144 million deal that the Tigers offered to Scherzer in the spring. Boras’ negotiations often play out way past the winter meetings, and there is so little current buzz around Scherzer, so few teams linked to the pitcher, that some evaluators and agents theorize that one of two scenarios is developing with the former Cy Young Award winner: 
1. He could be out on a limb, some evaluators believe, with his expected price undercut by the extraordinarily high volume of available pitching. “It’s not the best time to be looking for a big deal,” said one GM, noting the many pitching alternatives that can be found for lower cost. 

2. He will be the target of a big, bold surprise strike by some team flush with cash, much in the way that the Washington Nationals jumped on Jayson Werth for $126 million in December of 2010. Scherzer might be one among many options, but he is the best right-hander available right now with no strings attached, because he’s a free agent. Sure, you can land Cole HamelsJohnny Cueto or Jordan Zimmermann, but any interested team would have to trade a major package of prospects in return. (A team would have to surrender a top draft pick to sign Scherzer.)"
 

GilaMonster

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Has anyone heard a time table for Ivan Nova?
 
I think the Yankees could be sneaky in 2015. I think Teixeria and McCann could bounce back a bit. Prado has been solid at 2B. Ellsbury and Gardener are incredibly solid in the outfield and Beltran should at least be able to hit a bit.  Sabathia should be at least like 2013 Sabathia when he wasn't giving up a HR on 1/4 flyballs. If Tanaka can stay healthy, he is obviously a major force. Same thing with Pineda. And Nova/Greene aren't bad back end options. 
 
In my opinion, They should,as rumored, jump on Chase Headley. He is good and could be a good value, which the Yankees need. I really have no clue what they do at SS. Perhaps a big trade for a Tulo or Castro. Perhaps they hope a Headley type a 3rd can negate the awful defense of a Lowrie/Cabrera type. Then either bring back Kuroda or sign a McCarthy type and provide some depth. Maybe sign a value play like Aoki and regulate Beltran to a DH role shared with A-Rod.
 
If you do this, projections like Steamer, see them as being close to the Red Sox and Jays(though the depth charts and projection for Castillo still need to be fixed). They certainly aren't as good, but they are competitive. Now they can drive the dump truck full of money to Yoan Moncada's house.
 
Maybe they are a nice fit for James Shields as well. On a 4Y/$100M deal, he would allow you a luxury that Schezer or Lester doesn't: The ability to have essentially a clean books in 2019.
 

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Just to be clear, that is probably a $240-$260M payroll you are describing, and still a longshot contender. And all of that except new one year deals would be on the books again for 2016, talk about no flexibility. I would be surprised if they take it past $210-220M this offseason, that at least would still leave some wiggle room at the trading deadline and next offseason.
 

GilaMonster

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Which is why I would do everything except Shields. Still a competitive team. But Headley + Lowrie + Kuroda/McCarthy gets you in that $220M range. Right?
I'd field a competitive team and still push hard for Moncada.
 

Pedro 4 99MVP

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Reports on Rotoworld say that Robertson has multiple offers for 3+ years and at least 39 milllion. If the Yankees don't resign Robertson, that probably makes them very involved on Andrew Miller. Sherman may be right that they won't be involved in the "big" free agents, but they are still the Yankees. They won't be silent. I think most people would be stunned if they didn't address bullpen and the left side of the IF (Headley, Lowrie?, trade for SS?).
 

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Yeah, I've thought Miller has made sense for them all offseason. Also, they wouldn't lose a draft pick for signing him and they would gain one if Robertson signs elsewhere. 
 

Pedro 4 99MVP

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Good point jon abbey on the draft pick compensation. This isn't something that has deterred the Yankees in the past, but gaining a pick and getting a very similar talent seems like a great move by a franchise that may or may not be able to compete this year, has no money coming off the books after this season, and is just starting to get their farm system back to respectability. 
 

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What do you speculate the upper margin of the 2015 payroll can be?
 
..and how would that look with the potential signing of Lester (or Scherzer) / Miller / Headley / Drew / McCarthy? Would it be reasonable?
 
The Dodgers were at $280M in 2014 and currently sit at $191M (plus the usual budgetary adds for other players and other costs) with some arbitrations coming up, and some holes. Why couldn't the Yankees be at $250M?
 

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geoduck no quahog said:
 Why couldn't the Yankees be at $250M?
 
I think they definitely could if they had any money coming off the payroll after the year, like in the Dodgers' case you mention above. My guess would be they are aiming for $210-220 this offseason with the potential to take it to the $250M range by the end of next offseason, as I said above. They already have nine players combining for $169M in 2016 (not 2015), that is tough to build around especially when a couple of them may be complete non-factors (A-Rod, CC).
 

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I'm not certain this is correct, but let's play wit this.
 
It looks like the 2015 payroll currently stands at $181M + other budgetary stuff. (true?)
 
+25M for a pitcher + 13M for a reliever + $15M for a 3B + $8M for a SS = $242M +
 
Does that sound like a ballpark figure? If I were a Yankee fan, I'd go for it regardless of 2016, although 1 pitcher + 1 reliever budgeted as above puts them into your ballpark...(assuming Rodriguez can still play 3B)
 

jon abbey

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Honestly I think they are just as likely to sign no eight figure players at this point ($10M per season and up) as they are three or four. Scherzer/Robertson/Headley/Drew still doesn't really make them a definite contender, they have so few reliable guys to actually build around. It's hard to say for sure since they've proven incapable of maintaining a macro plan even throughout one offseason, but gun to my head, I'd say maybe two semi-big signings at $30M combined will be coming at the most. I also think it's quite possible they'll be overbid on all of their primary targets (Headley, Miller, Robertson, McCarthy) and not end up spending much money at all. I'm glad I'm not the one running the show there right now, because they have dug themselves quite a hole for the next few years. 
 

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Pedro 4 99MVP said:
Reports on Rotoworld say that Robertson has multiple offers for 3+ years and at least 39 milllion. If the Yankees don't resign Robertson, that probably makes them very involved on Andrew Miller. Sherman may be right that they won't be involved in the "big" free agents, but they are still the Yankees. They won't be silent. I think most people would be stunned if they didn't address bullpen and the left side of the IF (Headley, Lowrie?, trade for SS?).
 
I just don't get that unless they get Miller for a lot less than has been speculated. 
 
I would feel much more comfortable going 3/45  for Robertson, than I would be going 3/27 for Miller. 
 

jon abbey

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I bet both of those guys end up getting four years anyway. 
 

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geoduck no quahog said:
I'm not certain this is correct, but let's play wit this.
 
It looks like the 2015 payroll currently stands at $181M + other budgetary stuff. (true?)
 
+25M for a pitcher + 13M for a reliever + $15M for a 3B + $8M for a SS = $242M +
 
Does that sound like a ballpark figure? If I were a Yankee fan, I'd go for it regardless of 2016, although 1 pitcher + 1 reliever budgeted as above puts them into your ballpark...(assuming Rodriguez can still play 3B)
 
I might just go for a 3B and SS and maybe a cheaper McCarthy or Kuroda type in the rotation. Pitching probably won't be the problem in New York assuming CC doesn't completely crap the bed again. Maybe find a high upside reliever for cheap like a Grilli or Hochevar.
 

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JohntheBaptist said:
You think David Robertson is $6 million dollars a year better than Andrew Miller?
 
I have a very high degree of confidence that Robertson will repeat basically his average year from 2011-2014 for the next 3-4 years
 
Honestly,  I have no real idea what Andrew Miller will do next season.  Will his BB rate remain around half of what is was every other year in his career.  I don't believe so.
 
I think both players are going to be dramatically overpaid.   I think Miller's complete bust potential  is MUCH, MUCH higher than Robertson
 
I also think the Yanks are pretty stacked in LH relievers especially with Lindgren looking like he'll be dominating out of the pen very quickly
 

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The source, who has intimate knowledge of the team's inner workings, said the Yankees are exploring the possibility of using Martin Prado at third, where he has played most of his big-league games, and giving young Rob Refsnyder every opportunity to win the second base job in spring training.

"There are a lot of people in [the Yankees'] organization who want to give Refsnyder a shot," the source said. "They think he's the best hitter in the [bleeping] organization."
 
http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=new-yorkyankees&city=newyork&i=TWT&id=81607&w=1emzd&src=desktop
 
Yankees "not likely" to re-sign Headley and could play Prado at 3B and give the 2B job to rookie Rob Refsnyder.
 

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Also from that article linked above concerning the SS situation.  Could the Yankees make a play for Tulowitzki?
 
That still leaves the Yankees without a shortstop, a position GM Brian Cashman is said to be leaning toward filling via trade rather than through free agency. (An internet rumor that had the Yankees looking to trade Brett Gardner was shot down by my source, who said, "Absolutely not. [The Yankees] love Brett Gardner.")

"Things could get very interesting next week in San Diego," the source said.

Why not? It's December, which in the Yankee-sphere practically guarantees that they will.
 
 

jon abbey

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Yep, like I predicted, Headley is out of their price range, so now they're "cooling" on him. Honestly at this point I will be a bit surprised if they sign anyone for multiple years at $10M+. 
 
Tulowitzki is a 30 year old SS with 6/114 still left on his deal who has missed more than 200 games combined in the last three seasons, I'm not fully convinced taking on that deal makes sense for NY even if they didn't have to give up a bunch of their best prospects, which clearly they would. 
 

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I'm starting to come around to JA's way of thinking -- Prado at 3B and Refsnyder with a strong shot at 2B might work out well, but I'm not quite convinced Headley is out of the picture (not that anyone is saying he is, of course). I think if he is willing to take 3 years, the Yankees will get him. I'm not sure right now who will give him the four or five he is looking for. Maybe he has some offers for four years already, but I sort of doubt it.

Maybe the back problems alone should be enough of a concern to push the Yankees toward other options.
 

jon abbey

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Joel Sherman with another very good column:
 
"I think the organization has done such a lousy job of player development plus making previous big-money procurements that pretty much no purchase or two would elevate the team to a likely championship contender next year while it almost certainly would further foul up future payrolls and maneuverability."
 
http://nypost.com/2014/12/02/the-winter-lesson-the-yankees-and-their-fans-should-heed/
 

jon abbey

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The one way NY does have a good amount of financial flexibility currently is in one-year deals, so maybe once we get to the end of the FA market, NY will go bargain shopping like BAL did with Nelson Cruz last year. 
 

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jon abbey said:
Joel Sherman with another very good column:
 
"I think the organization has done such a lousy job of player development plus making previous big-money procurements that pretty much no purchase or two would elevate the team to a likely championship contender next year while it almost certainly would further foul up future payrolls and maneuverability."
 
http://nypost.com/2014/12/02/the-winter-lesson-the-yankees-and-their-fans-should-heed/
 
I am praying that the organization can finally admit this.
 

jon abbey

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NY avoids arb with Esmil Rogers and signs him to a $1.48M deal, 750K guaranteed. So unless I'm forgetting someone, this is where they stand now:

C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: Refsnyder/Pirela
SS: Ryan
3B: Prado
OF: Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran
DH: A-Rod
 
SP: Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, Greene, Phelps, Warren (?)
RP: Warren (?), Esmil Rogers, Whitley, Jose Ramirez, Lindgren, Wilson, Kelley, Betances 
 
bench: Young, Romine/Murphy, Pirela/Refsnyder, ???
 

GilaMonster

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BigMike said:
 
I have a very high degree of confidence that Robertson will repeat basically his average year from 2011-2014 for the next 3-4 years
 
Honestly,  I have no real idea what Andrew Miller will do next season.  Will his BB rate remain around half of what is was every other year in his career.  I don't believe so.
 
I think both players are going to be dramatically overpaid.   I think Miller's complete bust potential  is MUCH, MUCH higher than Robertson
 
I also think the Yanks are pretty stacked in LH relievers especially with Lindgren looking like he'll be dominating out of the pen very quickly
 
Giving a mult-year deal to a reliever make close to no sense if you aren't contending. Are you seriously going to be on a reliever still being good 2-3 years down the road? It is why contending teams can overpay up front because they probably aren't contending towards the end of the contract.
 

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jon abbey said:
He had a brutal .572 OPS last and has mildly negative UZR numbers, but he is only 28 and led the NL in SBs in 2012. Also he is a Boras client, but definitely intriguing, agreed.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8155&position=SS
 
Ogando is another non-tender I'd investigate seriously, NY definitely has money for one-year deals, as I said above. 
 
Cabrera has All Star upside. There are not a lot of shortstops available for cheap that have that. And he is on the right side of 30.
 
Ogando I like too, there are quite a few non-tender arms I like (Medlen, Beachy, Ogando). Yanks need to be on at least one of these guys.
 

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
Dude, come on. He's average defensively and has had one partial season of above average offense. The *only* way he has All Star upside is being on the Yankees and getting the home town vote, as is par for Yankee SSs. You're reaching.
 
The shortstops on the AL All Star team in 2014 were not exactly Nomar, Jeter, Tejeda, ARod in 1997.
 
They were instead a 40 year-old Jeter, Alexi Ramirez and Erik Aybar.
 

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
So they were the exact example of my point - a guy that got elected because of no other fact he was the Yankees SS; or two guys that have been routinely better and put up far better numbers than the 28 yo you are prjecting as an all star.

Got it.
 
No not exactly. My point is that there isn't a very high bar for a SS to clear to be one of the better ones in the American League. And I don't know that they have put up far better numbers, Cabrera has a better career OBP than both Ramirez or Aybar, and while he doesn't have the pop that either of those guys do, he does have more speed.
 
I think they are all equally middling SS but it is an extremely weak position in the AL right now. Grabbing Cabrera could (and I mean could, he could bomb again), give the Yankees an advantage over other clubs at the position.