NY in 2015: Looking Ahead

[ThePrideofShiner]

The Daily News' Mark Feinsand has been tweeting about how he expects Stephen Drew to be the Yankees shortstop next season, mainly because JJ Hardy just signed an extension with the Orioles.
 
Hard to believe a guy who hit so poorly this summer will be signed, but perhaps he will come a bit cheaper?

 

[terrynever]

Back before steroids, teams actually won pennants with good field-no hit shortstops. Bucky Dent had OPS+ of 79 and 72 respectively in 1977-78. But he made all the plays, same as Drew.

 

[Brickowski]

Back before steroids, teams actually won pennants with good field-no hit shortstops. Bucky Dent had OPS+ of 79 and 72 respectively in 1977-78. But he made all the plays, same as Drew.

Sure, but those teams had the likes of Reggie Jackson, Craig Nettles and Thurman Munson hitting in the middle of the lineup.  The 1977 Yankees scored 831 runs.  The 2014  Yankees scored 633.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Yankee fans, I have a question about Shane Greene.  He looked pretty good in games that I saw him pitch but his minor league #s are kind of ugly.  Did he change something or learn a new pitch?  And do you expect him to be a solid contributor to the rotation in 15 and beyond?  He looked like he had solid stuff and his #s this year were pretty solid (nice jump in his K rate) but his minor league #s look pretty bad.  Just looking for some insight on Greene from you guys.  Thanks!

 

[jon abbey]

He has legit stuff as you said and it seemed like he blossomed this year (at the age of 25), I think he's got the inside track on a rotation spot last year. I can't speak to previous minor league seasons, but I think a lot of his poor performance in AAA this year was due to NY shuttling him up and down a few times, and not really using him when he was up. I'm not sure if there is a minor league game log somewhere on the web, but if there is, you'll see that he put it together about a month before being called up for good, and continued that success in the majors. 

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Something I saw that was odd - Shane Greene has an abnormally high BABIP every year in the minors.  Let's just look at the last 4 years:
 
2011 - A -   .330
2012 - A+ - .330
2013 - A+ - .348
2013 - AA - .347
2014 - AAA - .360
2014 - MLB - .330
 
Does that mean he is just not very good and getting hammered or that he has had BAD LUCK for SIX straight years (BABIP in '10 & '09 was ~.350).  I don't know enough to know the answer to that but usually BABIP is up & down for pitchers but I guess if you're getting tattooed and giving up lots of line drives, your BABIP would be high.  Anyone have any knowledge or thoughts on this?  Could Shane Greene be a hidden gem?  Minor league career GO/AO rate: 1.46.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10756&position=P

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
True. And I guess with a lot of random teams - such as the Mariners - starting to see money from their TV deals roll in, the Yankees might not be able to afford these types of free agents.
 
I'm really curious to see how they handle the offseason. I have no idea what to expect.

The M's don't need a FA stud starting pitcher unless he can hit for himself and DH the next 4 games. The 2014 lineup managed to score just 10 more runs than the 2013 lineup. (Thanks, Robbie!)

 

[glennhoffmania]

Something I saw that was odd - Shane Greene has an abnormally high BABIP every year in the minors.  Let's just look at the last 4 years:
 
2011 - A -   .330
2012 - A+ - .330
2013 - A+ - .348
2013 - AA - .347
2014 - AAA - .360
2014 - MLB - .330
 
Does that mean he is just not very good and getting hammered or that he has had BAD LUCK for SIX straight years (BABIP in '10 & '09 was ~.350).  I don't know enough to know the answer to that but usually BABIP is up & down for pitchers but I guess if you're getting tattooed and giving up lots of line drives, your BABIP would be high.  Anyone have any knowledge or thoughts on this?  Could Shane Greene be a hidden gem?  Minor league career GO/AO rate: 1.46.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10756&position=P

 
I'd like to know what his xBABIP was because he seems to have a pretty high LD%, plus a lot of ground balls, yet his BABIP was lower in MLB.  I can never find a decent BABIP calculator. 

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Cashman was just on the radio. Girardi has talked to A-Rod about potentially getting work in at 1st base this season.

 

[jon abbey]

So now that Cashman is officially coming back, next up for NY should be trying to lock in a couple of their own FAs before the free agency period starts, like BAL just did with Hardy. Headley would be a good start, Robertson and/or McCarthy too. 

 

[NYCrusader]

 

[jon abbey]

What makes that relevant to this thread?

 

[Rough Carrigan]

So . . . metro New York has, what, 5 or 6 times as many people as metro Boston and twice as many MLB Prime subscribers.  So?
 
And, I know it won't happen but I almost wish there was some way that the yankees could trade for or sign someone like Adrelton Simmons (sp?) just for the fans to see the contrast.

 

[sean1562]

yea, i think he is saying so that the NY fans can actually see how the position is meant to be played

 

[Wingack]

So now that Cashman is officially coming back, next up for NY should be trying to lock in a couple of their own FAs before the free agency period starts, like BAL just did with Hardy. Headley would be a good start, Robertson and/or McCarthy too. 

 
I think Headley and McCarthy would be wise moves, not so sure about Robertson on a long term deal.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I just read that NY is considering giving Kuroda a QO.  Is that possible?

 

[jon abbey]

Anything is possible, but I'd agree that's pretty unlikely. We will know for sure after the deadline in a few hours (5 PM EST).

 

[jon abbey]

No surprises here, except maybe that they wouldn't leave their name in the Lester/Shields bidding to raise their prices for others:
 
"Put the Panda heads away, Yankees fans; Pablo Sandoval isn’t coming to the Bronx. And you can add Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields to that list while you’re at it.
 
According to a source, the Yankees have no plans to pursue either Scherzer or Lester, the top two free agents on the market this winter. Shields, the third-best free-agent starter, is also off the Bombers’ radar, as is Sandoval, the Giants’ postseason hero who was given a $15.3 million qualifying offer by San Francisco before Monday’s deadline. 
 
Instead, the Yankees are interested in bringing back two of their own, free agents Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley, neither of whom was eligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded to the Bronx this past July."
 
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-plans-pursue-free-agents-pablo-sandoval-jon-lester-max-scherzer-article-1.1997950
 

 

[EvilEmpire]

Instead, the Yankees are interested in bringing back two of their own, free agents Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley, neither of whom was eligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded to the Bronx this past July.

Get it done Cashman.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, if they can get/keep McCarthy and Headley, the only major question left (besides the up-in-the-air status of Robertson) is a SS upgrade over Brendan Ryan. 

 

[DanoooME]

No surprises here, except maybe that they wouldn't leave their name in the Lester/Shields bidding to raise their prices for others:
 
"Put the Panda heads away, Yankees fans; Pablo Sandoval isn’t coming to the Bronx. And you can add Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields to that list while you’re at it.
 
According to a source, the Yankees have no plans to pursue either Scherzer or Lester, the top two free agents on the market this winter. Shields, the third-best free-agent starter, is also off the Bombers’ radar, as is Sandoval, the Giants’ postseason hero who was given a $15.3 million qualifying offer by San Francisco before Monday’s deadline. 
 
Instead, the Yankees are interested in bringing back two of their own, free agents Brandon McCarthy and Chase Headley, neither of whom was eligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded to the Bronx this past July."
 
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-plans-pursue-free-agents-pablo-sandoval-jon-lester-max-scherzer-article-1.1997950
 

 
The logic makes sense, but when have the Steinbrenners been logical?  This could be your classic case of misdirection too.

 

[jon abbey]

Again, I think it was a mistake to not lock down Headley or McCarthy in the last month, although of course I don't really know if that was possible. I still think NY will end up with a payroll pushing $250M and a team at best as good as last season, unless they get major help from the minors. That's a less than ideal state of affairs. 

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

First of all, let me say that I think locking down Headley would be a smart move for the MFY. I will also say that I am happy to hear that they won't be bidding against the Sox on the top pitchers (I am, however, taking that with a grain of salt). With all of their uncertainty on offense, though, it makes sense that they won't be in on the top pitchers. Potentially signing Headley does lead to a lot more questions than just "does A-Roid move to DH?"
 
If A-Roid is DH, then can Beltran stay healthy playing RF on a semi-regular basis?
If Beltran is in RF, is Prado your super sub? This could make sense, since so many regulars are aging, Prado could be in the lineup on an almost permanent basis. 
Or, does Prado become your regular 2B? None of the ESPN or MLBNetwork talking heads are mentioning 2B as a need area, but it clearly is. Prado has played 32 and 21 games the last 2 years at 2B, so he is capable, even if he hasn't been an everyday guy there. Maybe it is already decided that he will be the everyday 2B, but I haven't seen that reported.
What if Steven Drew doesn't come back? What if Prado is a super-sub (Girardi did mention that he loved his versatility)? What are the other posibilities for middle infield?
 
The MFY and Sox both have some serious questions and roster shuffling to do this winter.

 

[jon abbey]

2B isn't exactly a 'need' area because even if Prado isn't an option because he is playing 3B or RF, they have Refsnyder and presumably Brendan Ryan will be bumped from the starting SS role by someone, but he's still under contract.

 

[jon abbey]

Also I think Cashman has to basically plan for A-Rod to be a total non-factor this year if he can, because who knows if he can even DH at this point?

 

[EvilEmpire]

I keep seeing this sentiment expressed and I don't understand it. I get that a year off would add some rust, but given the nagging injuries he's had the last few years, I'm having trouble understanding why a year of rest, rehab and conditioning wouldn't be a good thing for the remainder of his career.

It isn't complicated. He'll be 40 years old next season, presumably without any chemical enhancements. His body was breaking down when he last played full time. Why would Cashman or anyone else count on him being a productive major league player?

 

[nattysez]

When's the last time a 35+ year-old hitter took a year completely off from playing (so not in Japan or the minors) and then returned to baseball?
 
I have no idea how to research this, but I can't think of anyone who has done it.

 

[mauidano]

Also I think Cashman has to basically plan for A-Rod to be a total non-factor this year if he can, because who knows if he can even DH at this point?

So pretty much Derek Jeter, version 2014. A declining talent creating a hole in the lineup that he is stuck with.

 

[Lowrielicious]

So pretty much Derek Jeter, version 2014. A declining talent creating a hole in the lineup that he is stuck with.

A few less gift ceremonies though I imagine.

 

[jon abbey]

So pretty much Derek Jeter, version 2014. A declining talent creating a hole in the lineup that he is stuck with.

 
 
Kind of. Jeter coming into 2014 is a reasonable comparison as no one had any idea if he could stay healthy coming off the injury at age 40. Actual Jeter in 2014 somehow stayed healthy enough for 634 PAs and a slightly positive bWAR of 0.2. If Cashman could count on the equivalent of that from A-Rod at DH with occasional fill-ins at 1B and 3B, I think he would/could approach this offseason a bit differently. 

 

[jon abbey]

Olney backs me up on that in his column today, although I think NY would prefer to slot Beltran into RF the majority of the time if possible:

"The Yankees have so much doubt about Rodriguez as a player that they will count on him for absolutely nothing going into spring training. They will plan for somebody else to play third base regularly, perhaps Chase Headley if he can be re-signed, and they have Mark Teixeira at first base and Carlos Beltran at designated hitter."

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/8541 (pay)

 

[nattysez]

If you're the MFY, doesn't presenting ARod with the following proposal make sense?
 
Either take our buyout of $30mm or we are going to invoke the morals clause in your deal, waive you, pay you nothing, and make you arbitrate to get any of your money.

 

[nattysez]

 
It has a barely non-zero chance of working, but sure, why not give it a whirl? 
 
Of course, if they were able to actually do that, they would have done it already. And without a buyout. 

 
I don't think so.  They had to wait for this latest news to come out.  Now they have evidence that he breached the morals clause, allowing them to threaten to terminate the whole deal.

 

[jon abbey]

Somehow I missed the news yesterday that NY re-signed Chris Young for the 4th OF spot, $2.5M for one year with possible incentives. This means that 1) Ichiro is definitely gone and 2) Prado is likely being slated for either 2B or 3B, depending on whether they can get Headley back or not. 
 
http://riveraveblues.com/2014/11/murti-yankees-deal-place-chris-young-110294/

 

[jon abbey]

I was going to post this thought earlier, but this Sherman column confirms it. I think there's a good chance NY gets outbid on all of their main targets this offseason (Headley, McCarthy, Robertson) and doesn't end up with any of them. Again, when you realize how much money they already have committed to 2016, this makes a bit more sense.
 
http://nypost.com/2014/11/12/why-yanks-offseason-strategy-is-like-game-of-high-stakes-chicken/

 

[jon abbey]

OK, after a couple of minor moves (re-signing Chris Young and Cervelli for Justin Wilson), updating this:
 

OK, bumping this, as I have some overarching thoughts. Currently under contract:
 
C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: (Refsnyder)
SS: Ryan
3B: Prado
OF: Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran
DH: A-Rod
 
SP: Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, Greene, Phelps, Warren (?)
RP: Warren (?), Whitley, Jose Ramirez?, Lindgren?, Kelley, Betances. 
 
============================================
 
So attacking this logically (which may have no overlap with actual NY thinking), I wouldn't make another massive investment in a SP like Lester/Scherzer/Shields. I would try to keep all of the following:
 
Headley (this blocks Refsnyder if everyone is healthy, but everyone is never healthy)
McCarthy (this lets them bump Phelps to long guy and keep Warren in the pen)
Drew (although based on this year, he's a minimal upgrade on Ryan, but hopefully he'll be cheap at least)
 
And I'd go after Andrew Miller and try to keep Robertson. If the back of the pen was those two and Betances, that gives Girardi a ridiculous amount of options. If they could do all of that, they would have this team:

C: McCann, Cervelli/Murphy
1B: Teixeira
2B: Prado (Refsnyder in AAA)
SS: Drew, Ryan
3B: Headley
OF: Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran
DH: A-Rod
 
That leaves two spots for another OF and a backup 1B.
 
SP: Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, McCarthy, Greene
RP: Phelps, Warren, Lindgren, Kelley, Miller, Betances, Robertson. 

 
So, currently under contract:

C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: Refsnyder/Pirela
SS: Ryan
3B: Prado
OF: Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran
DH: A-Rod
 
SP: Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, Greene, Phelps, Warren (?)
RP: Warren (?), Whitley, Jose Ramirez, Lindgren, Wilson, Kelley, Betances 
 
bench: Young, Romine/Murphy, Pirela/Refsnyder, ???

 

[Sampo Gida]

I was going to post this thought earlier, but this Sherman column confirms it. I think there's a good chance NY gets outbid on all of their main targets this offseason (Headley, McCarthy, Robertson) and doesn't end up with any of them. Again, when you realize how much money they already have committed to 2016, this makes a bit more sense.
 
http://nypost.com/2014/11/12/why-yanks-offseason-strategy-is-like-game-of-high-stakes-chicken/

 
How much money is that really, historically speaking.
 
In real 2014 dollars (5% payroll inflation) here is the Yankees opening day payroll
 
2003-2009 avg 281 million (av 97 W)
2010-2014 avg 233 million (91 W)
Diff -48 million
 
2014-197 million (84 W)
2013-239 (85 W)
2012-230 (95 W)
2011-239 (97 W)
2010-258 (95 W)
2009-256 (103)
2008-280 (89)
2007-266 (94)
2006-287 (97)
2005-322 (95)
2004-299 (101)
2003-259 (101)
 
Yankees in recent years are spending 48 million per year less than the 2003-2009 period (in 2014 dollars), despite revenues that have increased higher than payroll inflation due to the new stadium.
 
Surprising people don't call out the Yankees more on this and accept the poor mouthing of the Yankees as reasons for not spending.

 

[jon abbey]

Again, the problem really isn't with how much money they're willing to spend, with a few exceptions. The problem is with the lack of young, cheap talent and with the lack of a coherent overarching macro plan that lasts more than a year or two and with the interference of ownership with the front office. 

 

[jon abbey]

Also the game has changed a ton in the last ten years, both the CBA rules and drug testing. Signing big FAs made a lot more sense ten years ago that it does now (this shouldn't be read as commentary on Hanley/Panda, there are always exceptions and obviously BOS has a lot of moves still left to make). You pushed endlessly for signing Stephen Drew last offseason, which not only was impossible with Jeter on the roster but once he actually started playing, he was dreadful, for both BOS and NY. Just because you can spend money doesn't mean it's the right way to go in today's baseball climate. Sometimes it is, more often I'd say it's not. 

 

[Wingack]

Aside from Tanaka, most of these big FA signings have felt more like stop gap measures than actual building blocks.

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

I still think the NYY's are gonna sign somebody for big cash this offseason. It's what they do. Every damn year.
Edit: to elaborate, if the Sox sign Sandoval, Ramirez, AND get back Lester? There's no way I can believe the Yanks are going to only do minor type deals.
I just cannot see Hank and Hal being able to withstand the itch.

 

[jon abbey]

I still think the NYY's are gonna sign somebody for big cash this offseason. It's what they do. Every damn year.

 
That's actually not true, I don't think they signed any big FAs from 2009-2012. They spent a ton in 2008 and 2013, of course, but it's hard to see how any of the big FAs really make sense for them given their current situation. 
 
Anyway, if they spend big on someone who is not Robertson/Headley/McCarthy, I think it will be Monceda. I don't see any chance they go hard after any of Scherzer/Lester/Shields. I wouldn't even be surprised if they end up outbid on all three of Robertson/Headley/McCarthy. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

That's actually not true, I don't think they signed any big FAs from 2009-2012. They spent a ton in 2008 and 2013, of course, but it's hard to see how any of the big FAs really make sense for them given their current situation. 
 
Anyway, if they spend big on someone who is not Robertson/Headley/McCarthy, I think it will be Monceda. I don't see any chance they go hard after any of Scherzer/Lester/Shields. I wouldn't even be surprised if they end up outbid on all three of Robertson/Headley/McCarthy.

Please, yes. I'd love to have McCarthy and Headley back, but if I had the opportunity to choose...

 

[jon abbey]

They're already way way way over the international spending limit for the year (goes through June 15) and will have restrictions for the subsequent two seasons (I think they can't sign anyone for more than 300K?), so it seems like the best current way for them to use some of their massive revenues. Badler at BA has been saying they're the faves for Monceda for a few weeks now. 

 

[pokey_reese]

It's a weird offseason when the Sox sign Sandoval/Ramirez, and I am a little envious that it seems like a foregone conclusion that the Yanks sign McCarthy/Headly.  Those were the two players I most wanted the Sox to target this winter, but it seems like they are eager find themselves owing big money to players on the wrong side of 30 in a few years, when more affordable, equally capable alternatives were out there.
 
I think that the Yanks have the chance to be what Boston was just a year or two ago, handing out a lot of 3/39 type deals that pay off handsomely without risking anything long-term.  Obviously, I hope for the best out of Pablo/Hanley (can we call them "Pablo Honey" moving forward?), but it's not how I would have drawn up the plan.

 

[jon abbey]

If those guys were actually going for 3/39, I think NY would have already locked them up. I think they will both end up more in the 4/50 range and on other teams. 

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

Yeah I was being a bit hyperbolic. But it pretty much averages-out to one big FA deal a year!  Also, they took on Grady's deal in 2010, no?  Approximately 50 million.
I just have a hard time believing Hank/Hank resist the itch after seeing what the Sox are doing.

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

Wow. Too much coffee or something...above should read :"Grandy's deal" and "Hal/Hank".
 
Both Yankee fans in my office want their team to swoop-in on Lester, ala Tex. It's starting to get to me a little.

 

[jon abbey]

You were being more than a bit hyperbolic, not an ideal way to start posting on a new site. You said "I still think the NYY's are gonna sign somebody for big cash this offseason. It's what they do. Every damn year." when in fact they've only done that in two out of the past six offseasons. Don't defend yourself, make better posts going forward. 

As for NY diving into this market with a big signing, Joel Sherman again talks today about why that's unlikely (although he leaves out the most important fact as most stories seem to, that NY is already locked into close to $200M for 2016). 
 
http://nypost.com/2014/11/25/458-million-reasons-why-yankees-cant-afford-chase-headley/

 

[derekson]

I'm with jon abbey (and Sherman) on this one. The Yankees' commitments through 2016 along with the number of holes they need to fill with at least decent players combine to make it unlikely they spend on a high end FA contract this winter. I don't think Scherzer or Lester end up in pinstripes. 
 
I might not rule out the possibly of them making a trade for Hamels if they can't bring back Kuroda or sign Maeda or something though. That seems pretty unlikely as well though, but probably more likely than signing one of the top FA pitchers.